The document summarizes a regional scenario planning study conducted for the George Washington Region. The study explored four development scenarios - decentralized growth, green print initiative, compact development centers, and greater jobs/housing balance - and evaluated them based on principles of mobility, environment, communities, collaboration, infrastructure, and quality of life. Initial analysis ranked jobs/housing balance as the best scenario, followed by compact development and green print initiative. Stakeholder input was solicited through surveys and meetings to inform a preferred regional development scenario.

1. YO U R V I S I O N , O U R F U T U R E
G EORGE WASHINGTON R EGION S CENARIO P LANNING S T U DY
G ENERAL O VERVIEW P R E S E N TAT I O N

2. Project Background
Study Area
Building on the LRTP:
“The combination of inadequate revenue for
transportation improvements & local land use
policies that promote decentralized growth are
threatening the sustainability of our region ”
region.”
Region at a Cross-Roads:
• Rapid & decentralized growth
• Significant land available for development
• Regional vs. local interests
• Inadequate revenue to meet stated needs

3. Yo u r V i s i o n , O u r F u t u r e
What’s the big idea?
The study provide residents, business leaders,
& elected officials throughout the George
Washington Region with the opportunity to
explore and debate regional growth visions,
their trade-offs, and alternative futures.
End Game:
E dG
The scenario planning study will be a useful resource as local
governments update their adopted plans and ordinances. It will also be
one input for developing FAMPO’s next Long Rang Transportation Plan.

4. Who is Involved?
Local Jurisdictions State & Federal Government
• Caroline County • Virginia Department of Transportation
• King George County • Virginia Dept. of Rail & Public Transportation
• Stafford County • Virginia National Defense Industrial Authority
• Spotsylvania County • National Park Service
• City of Fredericksburg • Individual Military Installations in the Region
y g
• Town of Bowling Green
• Town of Port Royal Special Interests
• Committee of 500
Regional Agencies & Institutions • Fredericksburg Ch b of C
F d i k b Chamber f Commerce
• Fredericksburg Regional Alliance • Caroline County Chamber of Commerce
• Mary Washington University • Military Affairs Council
• Military Affairs Council
y • Fredericksburg Green Drinks
• FAMPO • Friends of the Rappahannock
• GWRC • Fredericksburg Clean and Green Commission
• Tri-County Soil & Water Conservation District • Stafford County Historical Commission
• Hanover Caroline
Hanover-Caroline Soil & Water Conservation District • Spotsylvania First Impressions Commission
• Central Virginia Housing Coalition • Local Business Leaders
• Local Development Interests
• Stafford Regional Airport

5. Scenario Planning Overview
Study Area
Role in the Project:
• Scenario planning provides a forum, process,
S i l i id f
set of tools, and measurable outcomes so the
region might contemplate alternative growth
futures.
• Allows stakeholders the opportunity to
measure results and evaluate the trade-offs
associated with competing scenarios
scenarios.
Beyond the Project:
• Scenario planning tools are being developed
for each jurisdiction in the region.
• Becomes a resource / tool for local
government planning initiatives.

6. Partnerships for Developing Scenarios
Study Area
General Approach:
• It was important that the scenarios reflect the
region’s rich history, environmental assets,
military presence, and geography within the
super region between Washington, D.C. and
Richmond.
Ri h d
• Scenarios were developed in partnership with
local governments and key stakeholders (i.e.,
community-based regionalism)
Four-Part Partnering Strategy:
• On-Line Citizen Survey
• Focus Group Meetings
• Citi
Citizen W k h
Workshops
• Project Steering Committee

7. Development Scenario Summaries
Study Area
Fortune Telling Exercise:
Four different development scenarios were
prepared to measure and evaluate the trade-offs
associated with alternative growth patterns. This
information will be used for preparing a preferred
development scenario i th region.
d l t i in the i
Regional Growth Principles:
• Mobility
• Environment
• Genuine Communities
• Regional Collaboration
• Maximizing Efficiency in Public Infrastructure
• Quality-of-Life

8. Scenarios-at-a-Glance
Study Area
Decentralized Growth:
Contemplates how the region develops if
the dispersed pattern of development
were to continue. New growth would take
the form of single use, low-density
g y
development that is generally isolated, or
not well-connected.
Common F
C Features:
• Greenfield development patterns
• O t
Outward expansion of public utilities
d i f bli tiliti
• Transportation investments that favor
single-occupant automobile users
• Region remains a bedroom community
to Washington D.C. or Richmond

9. Scenarios-at-a-Glance
Study Area
Green Print Initiative:
Contemplates how the region develops if
new growth is directed away from identified
environmentally-sensitive lands and
resources. This scenario complements the
GWRC Green Infrastructure Report
currently under development.
Common F
C Features:
• Preserve large, contiguous natural areas
• P t t cultural resources (e.g. battlefield
Protects lt l ( b ttl fi ld
areas) & working farms
• Follows low impact development principles
• Potential need for TDR or PDR program &
conservation easement grants

10. Scenarios-at-a-Glance
Study Area
Compact Development Centers:
Contemplates how the region develops if
new growth is focused into compact,
walkable communities with nearby
opportunities to live, work, shop, and be
entertained. This scenarios considers the
concept of UDAs for the region.
Common F
C Features:
• Concentrated development areas
• L d preservation outside th
Land ti t id the
development areas
• Variety of development types &
intensities
• More travel options within &
between centers

11. Scenarios-at-a-Glance
Study Area
Greater Jobs / Housing Balance:
Contemplates how the region develops
if more employment is attracted to the
region. This was the citizens’ scenario
from round one of the public outreach
activities held for the project.
Common F
C Features:
• Follows development patterns in the
compact development scenario
p p
• Reduces average commute times for
home-work trip
• H pothetical scenario, could become
Hypothetical scenario co ld
the topic for a more detailed study

12. Development Scenario Report Card
Study Area
General Approach:
• Six Regional Growth Principles were
identified from general themes / issues
identified during the planning process
for Y
f Your Vision, O F t
Vi i Our Future.
• Performance measures for each growth
principle were created t quantify and
i i l t d to tif d
explain the differences between the
scenarios.
• Summary statistics were created using
CommunityViz software and the FAMPO
Regional Travel Demand Model.

13. Development Scenario Report Card
Study Area
Mobility Principle:

14. Development Scenario Report Card
Study Area
Mobility Principle:

15. Development Scenario Report Card
Study Area
Environmental Principle:

16. Development Scenario Report Card
Study Area
Genuine Communities Principle:

17. Development Scenario Report Card
Study Area
Regional Collaboration Principle:

18. Development Scenario Report Card
Study Area
Maximizing Efficiencies in Public Infrastructure:

19. Development Scenario Report Card
Study Area
Quality-of-Life Principle:

20. Development Scenario Report Card
Study Area
Summary Matrix:
• Compares all performance
C ll f
measures side-by-side;
assuming equal weighting
for ll
f all variables.
i bl
• Initial Rank Order:
1. Jobs-Housing Balance
2. Compact Development
3. Green Print Initiative
4. Decentralized Growth

21. Stakeholder Awareness & Input
Study Area
• Information is being shared with
stakeholder groups in the region
using a series of outreach meetings
& an on-line citizen survey
on line survey.
• Your input will be shared with the
project steering committee as it
moves forward with creating a
preferred development scenario for
the region.
region

22. How Do I Stay Involved?
Study Area
j
• Project Website
www.fampo.gwregion.org/regionallandusescenarioplanning.html
• Citizen Survey
www.yourvisionourfuturesurvey.com
www yourvisionourfuturesurvey com
• Questions
Ms. Marti Donley, FAMPO
(540) 373-2890
373 2890

23. YO U R V I S I O N , O U R F U T U R E
G EORGE WASHINGTON R EGION S CENARIO P LANNING S T U DY
G ENERAL O VERVIEW P R E S E N TAT I O N
C A R O L I N E C O U N T Y C H A M B E R O F C O M M E R C E
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