A presentation by the Philippine Economic Team and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Governor at the Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing on March 6, 2012
Decentralization: Problems and Solutions– Madagascar Evidenceiosrjce
Most of African countries are committed for over a decade in decentralization reforms that promote
better management of local public affairs. This significant development of local institutional landscape is
materialized through greater autonomy in financial and administrative management of communes. The
management of financial resources therefore constitutes the pillars for local authorities concerning the local
sustainable development. However, with the evolution, the general observation is made that indicates that the
financial capacity of municipalities remain low. Moreover, the decentralization is now a major subject for
developing countries especially in the context of policies against poverty and exclusion. It can play a great role
in a country’s development and it has become an important political agenda in many developing countries. This
form of transferring power from the central government to the local should help Madagascar in its development.
Decentralization permits the rural communes to manage their own financial resources and their expenses.
However, the local level is considered to be a central issue for the success of development policies and the fight
against poverty in Madagascar as in other African Countries. This paper analyses the repercussions of the
financial management on local municipalities in Madagascar and proposes solutions through which it can be
improved. Moreover, the good governance for the States is sometimes reflected by a good financial management
and transparency concerning public administration in general. Also, improving the management in the rural
area is an essential way to ameliorate development in Madagascar.
Decentralization: Problems and Solutions– Madagascar Evidenceiosrjce
Most of African countries are committed for over a decade in decentralization reforms that promote
better management of local public affairs. This significant development of local institutional landscape is
materialized through greater autonomy in financial and administrative management of communes. The
management of financial resources therefore constitutes the pillars for local authorities concerning the local
sustainable development. However, with the evolution, the general observation is made that indicates that the
financial capacity of municipalities remain low. Moreover, the decentralization is now a major subject for
developing countries especially in the context of policies against poverty and exclusion. It can play a great role
in a country’s development and it has become an important political agenda in many developing countries. This
form of transferring power from the central government to the local should help Madagascar in its development.
Decentralization permits the rural communes to manage their own financial resources and their expenses.
However, the local level is considered to be a central issue for the success of development policies and the fight
against poverty in Madagascar as in other African Countries. This paper analyses the repercussions of the
financial management on local municipalities in Madagascar and proposes solutions through which it can be
improved. Moreover, the good governance for the States is sometimes reflected by a good financial management
and transparency concerning public administration in general. Also, improving the management in the rural
area is an essential way to ameliorate development in Madagascar.
Meteri ini disampaikan oleh Professor Norimune Kawai, Ph.D., CCC-SLP, pada kegiatan Webinar: Implementation of Inclusive Education in Early Childhood, yang diselenggarakan oleh PPPPTK TK dan PLB
PPT presented in Strengthening Training of Trainers Workshops on The Financial Foundation of Local Government Based on Local Government Financial Management Series of UN-HABITAT during June 4- 15 2007 - Nadi, Fiji
The Philippine Economy: Progress, Challenges, Strategies by Secretary Arsenio...nedaphils
Socioeconomic Planning Secretary and NEDA Director General Arsenio M. Balisacan's statement during the press briefing in Malacañang on February 17, 2014 on the Philippine economy and poverty reduction roadmap.
Furniture Industry Presentation for Philippine Economic BriefingArangkada Philippines
This presentation was made by Nicolaas De Lange, Vice President and Corporate Secretary of Chamber of Furniture Industries in the Philippines and presented in March 2012 at the BSP's Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing.
Meteri ini disampaikan oleh Professor Norimune Kawai, Ph.D., CCC-SLP, pada kegiatan Webinar: Implementation of Inclusive Education in Early Childhood, yang diselenggarakan oleh PPPPTK TK dan PLB
PPT presented in Strengthening Training of Trainers Workshops on The Financial Foundation of Local Government Based on Local Government Financial Management Series of UN-HABITAT during June 4- 15 2007 - Nadi, Fiji
The Philippine Economy: Progress, Challenges, Strategies by Secretary Arsenio...nedaphils
Socioeconomic Planning Secretary and NEDA Director General Arsenio M. Balisacan's statement during the press briefing in Malacañang on February 17, 2014 on the Philippine economy and poverty reduction roadmap.
Furniture Industry Presentation for Philippine Economic BriefingArangkada Philippines
This presentation was made by Nicolaas De Lange, Vice President and Corporate Secretary of Chamber of Furniture Industries in the Philippines and presented in March 2012 at the BSP's Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing.
Good Governance : Origin, concepts and componentsNayana Renukumar
The presentation speaks about the origin of Good Governance, its major definitions, key components and strategies. The presentations also dwells upon the Good Governance scenario in India as well that in the state of Andhra Pradesh
Communique g20 japan fukuoka finance minister crypto asset benefitRein Mahatma
Technological innovations, including those underlying crypto-assets, can deliver significant benefits to the financial system and the broader economy - G20 Finance Minister abd cebtrak Vabj Governor Meeting Fukuoka Japan June 8-9 2019
Planning in the region starts with a vision about what we want to be. It is the aspiration of the Filipinos particularly those from SOCCSKSARGEN Region to have a long-term vision for the region and the country as a whole to become a prosperous, predominantly middle class society where no one is poor. The challenge is how every Filipino can afford to have a “matatag, maginhawa at panatag na buhay by 2040.”
Philippine Business Groups - Joint Foreign Chambers Press Conference on 16th Congress Legislation, September 11, 2013, 10:00 a.m.,
JV Del Rosario Rm, 4/F AIM Conference Center
Energy Sec. Jose Rene D. Almendras was the keynote speaker at the April 23, 2012 Energy Forum hosted by the Joint Foreign Chambers. He discussed in detail the Philippines' diversified energy mix and the development plans for energy resources. One of the highlights of his presentation involved a summary of the power situation for Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao as of April 2012.
Presentation of PEZA Director General Lilia De Lima at EuroMoney Conference 2012Arangkada Philippines
On March 27, PEZA DG Lilia De Lima presented at the Euromoney Conference Workshop at the Manila Peninsula. In her presentation “Creating the Next Business Hub for Manufacturers,” DG De Lima reported that as of February 29, 2012, PEZA administers a total of 257 economic zones comprised of: Manufacturing (64 zones);
IT Parks and Centers (164 zones); Tourism Ecozones (12 zones); Medical Tourism Park/ Center (2 zones); and
Agro-Industrial Parks (15 zones).
On March 28, DepEd Secretary Armin Luistro presented “The State of Education” to the members of the Philippine Business for Education. He
emphasized the trifocalization of education in the Philippines between DepEd, CHED, and TESDA.
Sec. Armin discussed DepEd’s performance indicators, their change agenda, budget trends, resources, current initiatives, and strategic directions. The K + 12 Basic Education Program was identified as a flagship reform strategy. Also discussed were DepEd initiatives to address the shortage on classrooms, teachers, sanitation facilities, textbooks, and school seats. Apart from K + 12, DepEd has focused on adopting the indigenous people education framework,
strengthening the use of ICT in education, and implementing the five key reforms of the Basic Education Reform Agenda: a) school-based management; b)
national learning strategies; c) quality assurance and accountability; d) complementary interventions; and e) institutional culture change.
This was a primer on the IT-BPO industry as presented to the AmCham ICT Committee by Alejandro "Bud" Melchor III, Deputy Executive Director for ICT Industry Development, Department of Science and Technology, ICT Office (DOST-ICTO) on March 27, 2012
Good Governance For a Better Tomorrow: Year-End Philippine Economic Briefing presentation
1. Good Governance for a Better Tomorrow
Philippine Economic Briefing
Policy Agenda, Fiscal and Macroeconomic Updates
Philippine International Convention Center
Pasay City, Philippines
6 March 2012
2. Agenda
I. Executive Summary 3
II. Government’s Focus on Governance and Near Term Goals 4
III. Economic and Fiscal Updates
Healthy, Sustained and Inclusive Economic Growth 5
Rapidly Improving Public Finances 7
Prudent Debt Management 10
Strong External Payments Position 14
Credible Monetary Policy with Strong Track Record 18
Resilient Banking System 19
Governance Reforms Have Yielded Positive Results 20
IV. Economic and Fiscal Outlook 23
V. Key Investment Areas 33
VI. Profiles of Government Officials and Speakers from the Private Sector 47
VII. Investor Relations Office Brochure 66
22
3. The Philippines: Pushing Forward on All Fronts
Strong macroeconomic fundamentals and governance reforms enabled the economy to sustain
its positive momentum in 2011
•Resilient and stable economic growth driven by strong domestic consumer base and growing
investment
•Prudent fiscal management focused on fiscal consolidation and medium-term debt sustainability
•Strong external payments position supported by large foreign exchange reserves, robust overseas
foreign remittances and a net external creditor balance
•Credible and effective monetary policy that has ensured price stability through its proactive stance
and independent approach to policy implementation
•Stable banking system, which is resilient to external shocks due to low NPLs, strong prudential ratios
and stable domestic funding sources
•Reform-minded Administration with a growing track record of good governance, prudent fiscal and
budgetary management and sustained popular support from the Filipino people
Growing third-party recognition with several credit rating upgrades over the past two years and
ongoing market appetite
33
4. An Administration Focused on Good Governance and Near-Term Goals
The Aquino administration has made significant achievements and has set clear goals for the future
“From the beginning of my campaign, I have maintained that the job of the President is composed of three things…first is the efficient allocation
of resources – that as a country with a sizable debt and limited resources, we must be able to utilize these resources to the maximum benefit of
our people. Second is to make certain that, as we walk the path to progress, no one is left behind… it is the government’s job to promote
inclusive growth and the third is the bedrock on which the first two are built on — the idea that by curbing corruption we can reduce poverty.”
- - President Benigno S. Aquino III, Feb. 21, 2012
The President’s Social Contract Priority Areas
• Rapid, inclusive, and sustained economic growth
• A re-awakened sense of right and Stable macroeconomic environment, low inflation and sustainable
wrong, through the living examples of our fiscal position; GDP growth of 7% to 8% for at least 6 yrs
highest leaders; Public private partnership; integrated and multimodal national transport
• An organized and widely-shared rapid and logistics system
expansion of our economy through a Adequate and responsive formal education structure and program
National Health Insurance Coverage Program
government dedicated to honing and
mobilizing our people’s skills and energies Communication, education and advocacy program for population
as well as the responsible harnessing of our development
natural resources; • Anti-corruption/transparent, accountable and participatory governance
Government Integrated Financial Management Information System
• A collective belief that doing the right thing
and procurement reforms;
does not only make sense morally, but also
translates into economic value as well; and Enhance role of Local Government Units in the anti-corruption drive
• Poverty reduction and empowerment of the poor and vulnerable
• Public institutions rebuilt on the strong Focus on comparative advantage in more labor-intensive activities;
solidarity of our society and its communities
Credit access for poor;
Regional savings generation
Conditional cash transfers
• Just and lasting peace and the Rule of Law; and
• Integrity of the environment and climate change mitigation and adaptation
Measure to mitigate potential negative impact of environmental factors
44
5. Economy: Healthy and Stable
A healthy economy supported b y sustained improvements across credit metrics
2005 vs. 2010
2011
2005 2010 Difference
Real GDP Grow th1 (%) 4.8 7.6 +58% 3.7
GDP Per Capita2 (USD) 1,159.1 2,131.0 +84% 2,346.8
Investm ent (% of GDP) 14.6 20.8 +42% 21.8
General Government Debt (% of GDP) 59.2 42.2 -29% 40.13
External Debt (% of GDP) 52.7 30.1 -43% 28.44
OF Rem ittances (USD bn) 10.7 18.8 +76% 20.1
Current Account (% of GDP) 1.9 4.5 +137% 3.14
Gross International Reserves (USD bn) 18.5 62.4 +237% 77.45
Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (“BSP”), National Economic and Development Authority (“NEDA”), Department of Finance (“DOF”)
1/ At constant 2000 prices 3/ Preliminary Q1 2011 data
2/ At current prices 4/ For Jan – Sep 2011
5/ As of Jan 2012
55
6. Economy: Healthy and Stable
A stab le economy highlighted b y continued positive growth
52 consecutive quarters of positive GDP grow th since 1999 Relative stability m easured by GDP volatility (2000 – 2010)
8 2.6 Real GDP growth ranked by mean
7.6
16.0%
7 6.7 2.4
6.6
12.0%
6 2.2
5.2
5
5 4.8 2 8.0%
4.4
4.2
4 3.7 1.8
3.6 4.0%
3.1
2.9
3 1.6
0.0%
2 1.4
1.1 (4.0%)
1 1.2
(8.0%)
0 1
China
Malaysia
Turkey
Brazil
Indonesia
Thailand
Philippines
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Real GDP Growth Rate (LHS)
Nominal GDP Per Capita (Rebased to 1999=1, RHS) Hi / Low Real GDP Growth Mean Real GDP Growth
Source: National Statistical Coordination Board (“NSCB”),
IMF World Economic Outlook (“WEO”) Database for 2000-2010 GDP data for other countries 66
7. Government Reforms: The Focus on Good Governance
Good governance agenda with emphasis on fiscal discipline, transparency and accountability
Key Reforms Instituted by the Administration
Prudent fiscal controls coupled w ith intensified revenue collection efforts over the past year have laid the framew ork for efficient budgetary
allocation in 2012
Tax reform m easures including the indexation of sin taxes (alcohol and tobacco product taxes) and the rationalization of fiscal incentives
aim to further improve the fiscal position
Tighter prioritization of expenditures through the Zero Based Budgeting approach, improved composition of expenditures and quality
of government services
Rigorous im plementation of RATE, RATS, RIPS program s to go after evaders, smugglers, corrupt officials, respectively, have improved
tax collection
Contracts and public tenders are now posted on public w ebsites to instill transparency in the procurement process
Set-up BIR key performance indicators and publish actual results; establish appropriate performance standards and evaluations
Enacted the GOCC Governance Act of 2011 w hich lays the groundw ork for enhanced discipline in GOCCs
Set up the Debt Managem ent Office at the Department of Finance w hich is tasked to formulate and oversee the implementation of the
Republic’s debt management strategy
Transparency and
Fiscal Discipline
Accountability
Source: BSP 77
8. Fiscal Reform Under the Aquino Administration
Getting on a sustainab le fiscal path with improving fiscal metrics
Strict im plementation of adm inistrative reform measures
Actual at the BIR and BOC to im prove revenue generation
Run After the Tax Evaders Program (“RATE”)
2008 2009 2010 2011 RATE is a program initiated by the Department of Finance
(“DOF”) and Bureau of Internal Revenue (“BIR”) to investigate
and prosecute individuals or entities engaged in tax evasion
Rev enues (% of GDP) 15.6 14.0 13.4 14.0 RATE is enhancing voluntary compliance and promoting the
confidence of the public in the tax system
87 tax evasion cases filed as of Jan 31, 2012 with total tax
liabilities of P36.1 billion
Rev enue Grow th (%) 5.8 (6.6) 7.5 12.6
Run After the Sm ugglers Program (“RATS”)
RATS is a vigorous campaign against smugglers that was
launched in 2005
Expenditures (% of GDP) 16.5 17.7 16.9 16.0
Revitalized RATS program zeroes in not only on smugglers
but even on Bureau of Customs (“BOC”) officers and personnel
who may be involved in illegal operations
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) (0.9) (3.7) (3.5) (2.0) 66 smuggling cases filed as February 15, 2012 with total
dutiable value of P59.7 billion
Revenue Integrity Protection Service (“RIPS”)
General Gov ernment Debt
44.2 44.3 42.2 40.1 1 RIPS was created to address persistent reports of corruption in
(% of GDP)
revenue generating agencies of the government that lead to
collection shortfalls
29 cases filed with the Office of the Ombudsman involving 31
Source: NSCB, Bureau of the Treasury (“BTr”)
1/Preliminary Q1 2011 data government personnel
88
9. National Government’s Fiscal Consolidation Efforts on Track
Fiscal performance further solidifies under the Aquino Administration
National Governm ent’s P197.8 billion deficit in 2011 w as 37.1% low er than last year
Revenues Expenditures Surplus/(Deficit)
2,000
(3.7%) of GDP
1,522 1,558
1,600 1,360 1,422
1,123 1,208
1,200 (3.5%) of GDP
PHP Billions
800 (2.0%) of GDP
400
0
(400) (299) (198)
2009 2010 2011
(315)
Source: BTr 99
10. Prudent Debt Management
Domestic / foreign b orrowing mix effectively managed
Prudent strategies to finance the annual funding requirement m inimize foreign exchange risk and increase funding self-sufficiency
National Government Gross Financing
5.9% 10.9%
100%
14.2%
34.2% 26.6%
80% 35.5% 28.5%
45.3% 43.4% 43.8% 22.4%
60%
40% 85.8%
73.4%
65.8% 64.5% 65.6% 66.7%
54.7% 56.6% 56.2%
20%
0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Jan-Nov 2011
Global-Peso Notes Foreign Domestic
External com ponent of National Governm ent debt has been gradually declining over the years
2003 2006 2010
44.1% 42.4%
49.2%
50.8% 55.9% 57.6%
Foreign Domestic
Source: DOF, BTr 10
10
11. Improving Debt Sustainability
Proactively managing the liability profile
The National Government’s foreign and domestic debts have grown longer dated over time
Domestic Debt
2003 2005 2010 Jan – Nov 2011
10%
Reduced rollover risk 29% 19%
27% 29% 29%
and increased debt
carrying capacity over 20%
the past ten years
27% 70%
Debt portfolio has 54%
become significantly 44% 42%
longer in tenor
Foreign Debt
New issue yields 2003 2005 2010 Jan – Nov 2011
decreasing and 10% 4%
foreign currency-
denominated bonds
are receiving a
substantial bid from
onshore investors
90% 96% 100%
100%
Short term – 1 y ear or less Medium term – bey ond 1 y ear but less than 10 y ears Long-term – bey ond 10 y ears
Source: DOF, BTr 11
11
12. Demonstrated Ability to Service Debt
Comb ination of improving debt metrics and external b alance sheet strength
External debt is supported by growing current account receipts Am ple reserves to cover debt service burden
Improving external debt ratios underpin the country’s
strengthening external payments position
140% 14
11 5.5%
1 13 .6 %
1 09.6 %
102 .8%
120% 12
98.3%
9 3.4%
9 0.7%
8 9.9%
100% 10
77 .0 %
76 .1 %
7 0.0%
68.1%
67.7 %
80% 8
60% 6
40% 4
20% 2
0% 0
Jan- Nov 2 010
Jan- Nov 2 011
Ja n- Sep 201 0
Ja n- Sep 201 1
200 0
200 1
200 2
200 3
200 4
200 5
200 6
200 7
200 8
200 9
201 0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
External Debt / Current Account Receipts GIR / Debt Service Burden
Source: BSP, BTr 12
12
13. Demonstrated Ability to Service Debt (cont’d)
Comb ination of improving debt metrics and external b alance sheet strength
External debt ratios have declined significantly over the last 6 years Revenue allocated to debt service has declined drastically
90
37%
40%
37%
35%
80
35%
32%
68.6
68.3
66.1
63.4
70
60.2
30%
25%
24%
60
52.7
24%
23%
25%
21%
44.1
50
37.1
20%
40
32.6
31.3
31.3
30.1
28.4
15%
30
20 10%
10 5%
0 0%
Jan-Sep 2010
Jan-Sep 2011
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
External Debt / GDP NG Interest Payments / NG Revenue
Source: BSP, BTr
Debt servicing costs are for national government data and cover interest payments 13
13
14. Strong External Payments Position
BOP supported b y rob ust growth of remittances and BPO revenues
Rem ittances have tripled in a decade
24
7 consecutive years of balance of paym ents surplus 22
20.1
20 18 .8
17.3
18 16.4
USD Billions
20,000 16 14.5
14 12.8
14,308 12 10.7
10 8 .6
15,000 7.6
8 6.9
6.0
10,179 6
8,557 4
USD Millions
10,000 6,421 2
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2 005 20 06 2007 20 08 200 9 2010 2011
3,769
5,000 OFW Remittances
2,410 89
BPO revenues continue to grow rapidly
-202 810
115
0 14
12 10.9
-280
10 8.9
USD Billions
-5,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 8 7.1
6.1
6 4.9
Current Account Capital + Financ. Account
Other BOP Position 4 3.3
2.4
2 1.5
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011E
BPO Rev enues
Source: BSP 14
14
15. Growing Foreign Exchange Reserves
The growing stock of FX reserves shields the economy from external shocks
Foreign exchange reserves continue to grow at a record high
The Philippines is now a net external creditor; foreign exchange reserves of US$77.4 billion more than covers the country’s total
external debt as of September 2011 of US$62.4billion
As of end-January 2012, the country’s foreign exchange reserves could cover 11.4 months worth of imports of goods and
payments of services and income
At this level, reserves are equal to 10.8 times the country’s short-term external debt based on original maturity
Foreign exchange reserves continue to provide a healthy buffer from external shocks
11.1 11.4
80 12
70 9.6
10
8.7
60
USD Billions
8
50
6.0
5.8
40 77.4 6
75.3
4.2
x
30 4.0 3.8 62.4
4.0 3.6 4
20 44.2
37.6
33.8
2
10 23.0
16.4 17.1 16.2 18.5
0 0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jan-12
FX Resrves (LHS) Import Cover (RHS)
Source: BSP
15
15
16. Strong External Position is Supportive of the Peso
The Philippine Peso is stab le relative to currencies of other emerging market economies
The Peso has remained stable in recent years Peso m ore stable than peers’ currencies
3 Months Realized Volatility
55
160
53
140
51
120
49
47 100
45 80
2010 Av g:
43 PHP45.1/USD
60
2011 Av g:
PHP43.3/USD
41
40
39
20
37
35 0
Jul-97
Jul-98
Jul-99
Jul-00
Jul-01
Jul-02
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Philippine Peso Turkish Lira Indonesian Rupiah
South African Rand Thai Baht
Source: BSP, Bloomberg 29 December 2011 16
16
17. External Position is Supported by Moderate Exposure to EU Headwinds
Limited reliance on EU markets shelters the economy from external b oom-bust cycles
Financial sector risk from EU exposure is limited Lim ited trade and financial dependence on EU
The banking sector continues to fund itself primarily 2010 2011 2011 Actual Value
through domestic deposits eliminating the need for
Exports to EU / Total Exports 14.4% 12.3% US$5.89bn
external financing
Imports f rom EU / Total Imports 7.2% 7.4% US$4.45bn
Domestic banks have limited exposure to EU
assets, mitigating the potential impact from NPLs or Net EU FDI / Total FDI 1 -9.1% -39.2% -US$0.31bn
financial instrument contagion OF Remittances from Europe /
17.0% 16.6% US$3.3bn
Total Remittances 2
Local banking system’s consistently improving asset
1/ Period covers Jan-Nov
quality, good liquidity and favorable capital profile serve 2/ 53.0% of all remittances come from the Americas, 16.6% from Europe, 16.0%
as a buffer to external and domestic shock from the Middle East ,12.8% from Asia, and 1.6% from other regions
The econom y is less susceptible to
Lim ited im pact of global economic shock on real economy
trade shock than other EMs
Trade Openness 2010: Higher number indicates more vulnerability 2009 GDP Growth Shock
to trade shock ST DEV
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0
Malaysia Turkey 7.5
Taiwan Malaysia 5.3
Thailand Thailand 5.3
Philippines Taiwan 4.5
China Philippines 3.1
Indonesia China 1.5
Turkey Indonesia 0.7
0 20 40 60 80 100 Growth Shock: Standard deviation seen in 2009 GDP growth
Trade Openness: Sum of US dollar value of current account transactions as % of GDP compared with the preceding five-year average growth rate
Source: BSP, IMF WEO Apr 2011 release, Fitch Sovereign Data Comparator Dec 2011 17
17
18. Credible Monetary Policy
Refinements in the inflation targeting framework has allowed the BSP to meet its inflation target for 3 consecutive years
The Republic has achieved the right policy balance between containing inflation and supporting economic growth
14
Global inflationary cycle
12
10
8 January
2012
6
4 3.9
2
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Headline Lower Bound of Target Upper Bound of Target
Liquidity and dom estic interest rates remain supportive
Dec 2011:
5,000 P4,674bn 14
4,500
4,000 12
3,500 10
PHP billion
3,000
%
2,500 8
6.1%
2,000
1,500 6
1,000 4
500 4.5%
0 2
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
M3 (LHS) Bank Lending Rates (RHS) Reverse Repurchase Rate (RHS)
Source: BSP 18
18
19. Resilient Banking System
Improving asset quality and strong prudential ratios underpin soundness of the b anking system
Strong capitalization above international norms
Improving asset quality has minimized the risk of a potential Capital Adequacy Ratio (“CAR”) (%)
banking-system led crisis 20% 17.4%
The resilience demonstrated by the Philippine banking system 18%
is highlighted by the decrease in system-wide Non-Performing 16%
Loans (“NPL”) and Non-Performing Assets (“NPA”) levels 14% 16.5%
even at the heart of the global financial crisis 12%
NPL coverage ratios have strengthened as insurance against 10%
potential future asset deterioration, and underpin the 8%
conservative nature of the banking system 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 End-
Jun
CAR, Solo CAR, Cons olidated 2011
System -wide NPL level has show n sustained im provement While NPLs have shrunk, NPL coverage ratios have
even through the global financial crisis strengthened
4,000 20
3,500.6
3,500 120
16 102.6%
3,000 100
2,500 12 80
2,000
8 60
1,500
1,000 3.1% 40
4
500 20
0 0
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 end- 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 end-
Sept Sept
2011 2011
Total Loan Portfolio, Gross NPL Ratio NPL Coverag e Rati o
Source: BSP
NPA Ratio is equal to the percentage of assets that are no longer paying interest or principal as a percentage of total assets 19
19
20. Governance Reforms Have Yielded Positive Results
ROP is showing improvement on several governance and competitiveness indicators
2009/2010 2010/2011* Change
World Bank Governm ent Effectiveness Indicator 51 52 1 percentile
Transparency International – Corruption Perceptions Index 139 134 5 places
World Econom ic Forum (“WEF”) Com petitiveness Rankings
Overall 85 75 10 places
Institutions 125 117 8 places
Macro environment 68 54 14 places
Higher Education and Training 73 71 2 places
Goods and Market Efficiency 97 88 9 places
Technological Readiness 95 83 12 places
Financial Market Development 75 71 4 places
Business Sophistication 60 57 3 places
Innovation 111 108 3 places
Source: World Bank , Transparency International and WEF
*World Bank Governance Indicators and Transparency International values are for the year 2010 / World Economic Forum Rankings values are from the 2011/2012 report data 20
20
21. Governance Reforms Have Yielded Positive Results
Progress has b een recognized by the rating agencies
“The national government recorded a “The strength of the Philippines’ external “The upgrade in June reflects progress
small fiscal surplus, building upon the balance sheet and fav orable grow th on fiscal consolidation against a track
notable turnaround in fiscal traj ectory support the sovereign credit record of macro stability, broadly
management seen during 2H 2010. Much ratings on the country. Structural fav orable economic prospects and
of the improvement has been attributed to strengths of the current account strengthening external finances”
the progress made in fiscal appear sufficiently w ell entrenched”
consolidation by the new Aquino
administration”
Moo dy's S&P Fi tch
Baa3 BBB- BBB-
Last upgraded to BB+
(June 23, 2011)
Ba1 BB+ BB+
Last upgraded to Ba2 Last upgraded to BB
(June 15, 2011) (November 12, 2010)
Ba2 BB BB
Ba3 BB- BB-
S&P: Positive Outlook
(December 16, 2011)
B1 B+ B+
B B B
B- B- B-
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2000
2000
2001
2001
2002
2002
2003
2003
2004
2004
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
2011
2011
2000
2000
2001
2001
2002
2002
2003
2003
2004
2004
2005
2005
2006
2006
2007
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
2011
2011
Source: Moody’s, S&P, Fitch 21
21
22. Governance Reforms Have Yielded Positive Results
Low CDS spreads and record high performance of the PSE are proofs of positive investor sentiment on the Philippines
Philippines’ CDS levels are tighter than some higher rated peers
1400 Ratings CDS level as of
Country
(Moody’s/S&P/Fitch) 1 March 2012
1200 Brazil Baa2/BBB/BBB 135.1
Peru Baa3/BBB/BBB 140.3
1000
Philippines Ba2/BB/BB+ 155.5
800 Indonesia Baa3/BB+/BBB- 166.2
Turkey Ba2/BB/BB+ 232.2
600
India Baa3/BBB-/BBB- 283.5
400
200
0
Philippines India Brazil Peru Indonesia Turkey
Philippine Stock Exchange index sustains its bullish trend
5500
4500
3500 5,016.3 pts
2 Mar 2012
2500
1500
PSE index
Source: Bloomberg, Data 22
22
23. Economic Outlook
Better economic performance expected in 2012 with all sectors contrib uting
2012 Growth Outlook 2012 Macroeconomic Assumptions
(growth rate, in %, at constant prices)
Actual 2012 Assumption*
Parameter 2012
2010 2011 Low High
GDP 7.6 3.7 5.0 6.0 Inflation Target (1) 3% - 5%
GNI 8.2 2.6 4.0 5.0 FX rate (1) P42 – P45
Demand Side Crude oil (1) $90 - $110 / barrel
HH Cons. 3.35 6.1 4.6 5.6 Merchandise Export Growth (1) 10%
Govt. Cons. 4.0 (0.7) 4.0 4.6
Merchandise Import Growth (1) 15%
Investment 31.61 11.1 8.9 10.2
External Accounts
Total Exports 21.0 -3.8 8.4 9.3
Balance of Payments (2) $2.8 bn
Total Imports 22.5 1.9 9.7 10.4
Current Account (2) $4.3 bn
Supply Side
Gross International Reserves (2) $79.0 bn
Agriculture (0.2) 2.6 4.1 5.0
Industry 11.6 1.9 5.6 6.6 Remittances (2) $21.1 bn
Services 7.2 5.0 4.9 5.9 Remittance growth (2) 5%
*DBCC approved only the GDP growth rate. Assumption details may still change. (1) DBCC approved as of Jan 25,2012; (2) Based on BSP projections as approved by
the Monetary Board on 2 December 2011
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24. Economic Outlook
Better economic performance expected in 2012 with all sectors contrib uting
Near-term Policy Directions Accelerated government spending to support
domestic demand
• Stimulating domestic demand • Early release of funds for infrastructure projects
Sustaining domestic consumption 72.1% or P150.2 billion allocation for capital outlays in
Securing investments 2012 has already been released to agencies like
• Accelerating fiscal spending and infrastructure outlays DPWH, DA, DepEd
• Diversifying domestic and external trade Sixteen (16) projects under PPP are already in the pipeline
• Strengthening economic relations with fast-growing ASEAN Estimated cost P140.8 billion
economies; seizing the opportunity from China rebalancing • More efficient and faster process due to the implementation of
bureaucratic reforms in budget management and
administration initiated in 2011.
• Accelerated budget execution process
Global and Domestic Risks to Growth
99.6% of the budget for PS and 90.4% for MOOE have
already been released 1/
• External Risks
Balance sheet issues and weak consumption in the US
Fiscal problems and sluggish output in the Eurozone
• Internal Risks
Weak industry output
Damages in agriculture and infrastructure due to natural
calamities
Timely and effective implementation of Disbursements
Acceleration Program
1/ as of January 17, 2012
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