The document provides a weekly summary of financial markets and economic news from the week of January 14th, 2013. Key points include: 1) Mario Draghi at the ECB meeting signaled rates may not be cut in the next few months, strengthening the euro. Spain successfully raised €5.8 billion in bonds. 2) Japan announced a JPY10 trillion fiscal stimulus package and plans for the BOJ and government to target a 2% inflation rate. 3) US companies American Express, Alcoa, JP Morgan, and others reported earnings this week while economic data showed a widening US trade deficit.

1. 2013
Weekly Markets
14th,
n Perspectives
January
For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.

2. Weekly Summary
At the ECB meeting’s press conference, Mario Draghi In the US, American Express surprised the market
seemed more hawkish. Now, the market believe that a with an earlier that expected profit release. Alcoa
rate cut is less likely in the next few months. EURUSD announced a relatively upbeat 2013 guidance.
has rallied strongly on the news.
In Japan, Mr. Abe announced a JPY10tr fiscal
Meanwhile, Spain held last week its first bond stimulus package. According to the local press, the
auction of 2013. The country raised €5.8bn vs. €5bn BoJ and the government will establish cooperation
targeted. The 10yr Spanish bond finished the week in order to set a 2% inflation target.
below 5%. Given current market momentum,
investors seem to believe that Spain no longer will In Portugal, the domestic banking sector finished
need to trigger OMT in Q1 2013. The Spanish Treasury the week with impressive gains. An IMF report
said that it plans to issue a total of €215bn to €230bn was released pointing to various areas of reform
worth of bonds in 2013. for the Portuguese public sector and presented
several proposals for the government to cut €4bn
Last week was a positive one for the European (2% of GDP) in public spending. Jerónimo Martins
Banking sector. Sentiment in the sector was helped by released in-line Q4 2012 sales. Its stock price
the headlines suggesting that the Basel Committe had surged 6.1%, its biggest daily gain in five months.
relaxed bank liquidity coverage rules and pushed out
the timetable for its implementation. Moreover, BES JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Bank
and Banco Popular tapped the bond market. Both of America, Citigroup, Intel and GE will release
issues suggest a progressive reopening of the results this week. In Europe, Carrefour will
wholesale funding market for Iberian banks. announce Q4 2012 sales.

3. Euro-zone: Unemployment rate German industrial production
at a new record high rises in November
• The euro area unemployment rate increased • German industrial output increased 0.2% m/m,
0.1pp to a new all-time high in November 2012 after shrinking for three consecutive months,
at 11.8%; significantly below consensus (1.0% m/m);
• The number of unemployed in Germany is at its • The figures were depressed by a significant drop in
low since October 1991. The unemployment energy output. Industrial production in Germany’s
rate was unchanged at 5.4%; construction sector went up 1.0% m/m, but the
• In Spain, the unemployment rate rose 0.4pp to manufacturing component only rose 0.4% m/m.
an all-time high at 26.6%. The youth Consumer durables slumped 2.2%, suggesting
unemployment rate increased from 55.8% in weakness in the consumer activity.
October to 56.5% in November.
Euro-zone Unemployment rate (%) German Industrial Production and
12
11.8 Manufacturing PMI
65 20
11
Industrial Production
60 15
10
10 55
5
50 0
9
45 -5
-10
8 40
-15
35 -20
7
30 -25
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
6 Manufacturing PMI (LHS) Industrial Production (y/y, %, RHS)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Eurostat Source: Bundesbank, Bloomberg

4. Banque de France business Spain: Exports continue to
climate rises in December 2012 perform well
• In December 2012, the Banque de France • November 2012 data on sales for large firms (2/3
industrial sentiment indicator rose to 95 from of total Spanish firm sales) were released. Sales
91 a month earlier. This index reached its were down 6.4% y/y, with the sharpest fall being
highest level since March 2012. It suggests that registered in the construction sector;
the recovery in industrial activity might be • Domestic sales continue to contract, while exports
gathering pace; by large firms are growing at a healthy pace;
• Activity in the service sector remained • Nominal wages fell for the third consecutive
unchanged at 91 in December 2012; month (-0.1% y/y in November 2012);
• The Banque de France expects Q4 2012 GDP to • Domestic demand seems to continue experiencing
contract by 0.1% q/q. a contraction.
Spain: Monthy sales by large firms (y/y, %)
120 Banque de France Business Sentiment
Total Sales Domestic Sales Total Exports Total Imports
Jan-12 -3.9 -5.1 1.7 -0.7
110
Fev-12 -5.2 -6.0 -1.9 -10.2
100
Mar-12 -6.9 -8.1 -1.9 -13.0
Abr-12 -7.3 -9.0 0.3 -8.3
90 Mai-12 -5.9 -7.3 0.1 -13.5
Jun-12 -2.1 -2.7 0.8 -8.3
80 Jul-12 -6.5 -8.8 4.3 -3.1
Ago-12 -1.5 -2.3 2.0 -5.6
70 Industries Services Set-12 -10.2 -11.8 -3.0 -10.6
Out-12 -7.7 -9.9 2.5 -4.5
60
Nov-12 -6.4 -8.5 2.6 -8.5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Spanish Tax Agency
Source: Banque de France

5. ECB: More upbeat than expected Spain: Q3 2012 national accounts
• The ECB left its interest rates unchanged last were released
week, including the main refinancing rate at • The savings rate for households reached 7.0% of
0.75% and the deposit rate at 0.0%; disposable income (9.1% in Q3 2011) and
• According to Mario Draghi, no Council disposable income fell by -2.1% y/y, reflecting
members requested a rate cut at the meeting. falling wages and higher taxes;
In December, some Governing Council • In Q3 2012, the general government deficit/GDP
members had voted for a cut in interest rates; ratio excluding net capital transfers was -8.6%
• The ECB expects the economy to stay weak at (-8.7% in Q2 and -8.8% in Q1). The 2012 year-end
the beginning of 2013 with a gradual recovery target is 6.3% of GDP;
later in the year; • Non-financial corporations have seen 11.8%
• President Draghi’s comments in the Q&A growth in disposable income, suggesting that NFCs
session were more upbeat than what was are cutting costs rapidly.
expected by the market. He listed a number of Spain Monthly Current Account (€bn)
2
positive developments, including the
0
stabilization of some leading indicators, the -2
improvement in financial market confidence, a -4
fall in current account imbalances, and a fall in -6
TARGET2 balances; -8
-10
• The press statement asked for “further progress
-12
in fiscal consolidation” and for “further -14
structural reforms…”. 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Bloomberg

6. Portugal: Unemployment rate Portugal: Government is
remained stable at 16.3% expected to focus on expenditure
• In November, the unemployment rate in
Portugal remained stable at 16.3%;
cuts
• The unemployment rate for youths (under 25) • The legality of the 2013 Budget is being
declined from 39.0% in October to 38.7% in challenged with several requests sent to the
November; Constitutional Court to judge whether they are
• GDP contraction and ongoing fiscal against the Constitution;
consolidation continue to weigh on labor • In a comment to the Jan-Nov 2012 fiscal data, the
market conditions. independent parliamentary fiscal watchdog said
that the 2012 government budget deficit target
(5% of GDP) would only be possible via one-off
Portugal Unemployment Rate
40 18 measures. Tax revenues continue lagging behind
17 government estimates;
35 16
15 • An IMF report released last week suggested
30 14 various areas of reform for the Portuguese public
13
25 12
sector and presented several proposals for the
11 government to cut €4bn (2% of GDP) in public
20 10 spending. The report said that the wage bill and
9
15 8 pension spending would need to be reduced in
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 order to generate the government’s spending
Unemployment Rate for youths (under 25) (%, LHS)
Total Unemployment Rate (%, RHS)
reduction goals.
Source: Eurostat

7. Portugal: Construction sector Portugal: Domestic demand
remains depressed remains weak
• The industrial new orders index fell by -5.0% y/y in
• The index of production in construction fell by
November 2012, following a reduction of -5.2% in
-19.3% y/y in the quarter ending in November
October 2012. The domestic index decreased by
2012, down from -18.0% in October 2012.
-15.0% y/y (-16.3% y/y in October 2012), while
Employment and wages in the sector registered
new orders from the external market rose 2.2%
y/y change rates of -19.0% and -20.3% in
y/y (3.0% y/y in the previous month);
November, respectively;
• Portuguese banks’ NPL ratio rose from 9.97% to
• Exports and imports of goods decreased by
10.2% in November 2012 (the highest level since
-0.1% y/y and -3.6% y/y, respectively, in the
1997), in the corporate segment, while credit
quarter ended in November 2012. The deficit in
granted to companies fell by -8% y/y. In the
the trade balance fell by €511mn;
household segment, the NPL ratio rose to 3.8%,
while credit granted fell by -4% y/y.
Domestic Industrial New Orders (y/y)
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Statistical Office of Portugal Source: Statistical Office of Portugal

8. Sharp widening in US trade US budget deficit narrows by
deficit in November $86bn relative to year-ago levels
• The trade deficit increased to a seven-month • The NFIB index of small business optimism rose
high of $48.7bn in November (above de to 88.0 from 87.5 in December, only a small
consensus forecast at $43.1bn), from $42.1bn rebound after the decline from 93.1 in October,
in the previous month; probably reflecting concerns about the
• In real terms, the deficit jumped to a four-year economic outlook due to the “fiscal cliff”;
high of $51.9bn, from $46bn in October; • The US federal budget deficit was $0.3bn in
• Nominal exports rose by 1.0% m/m and non-oil December 2012, $86bn less than the December
imports increased by 4.4% m/m; 2011 print. This brings the deficit to $292bn for
• The bilateral deficit with China decreased Q1 of FY2013, a 9.1% decrease relative to the
slightly in November, but it increased sharply same period in FY2012, largely driven by higher
with the Euro-zone, particularly Germany. revenues.
Monthly International Trade Balance ($bn) US Monthly Treasury Federal Budget ($bn)
0 200
-10 Nominal 150
-20 Real 100
50
-30
0
-40
-50
-50
-100
-60 -150
-70 -200
-80 -250
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: US Dept. of Commerce Source: US Treasury

9. Japan: Abe administration China: December money and
announces a JPY10tr emergency credit supply below expectations
• CPI rose to 2.5% y/y (consensus: 2.3%), following
economic stimulus package 2.0% y/y in November, reflecting higher food
• During the recent election, the LDP promised to inflation;
implement a first emergency economic stimulus • December money and credit supply was below
package right away and implement new market expectations. New CNY loans were
economic policies; Rmb454.3bn in December 2012 (consensus:
• Since taking office on December 26th, the Abe Rmb550bn);
administration has been aggressively moving • The December trade data was encouraging.
with fiscal and monetary policy initiatives with Exports up 14.1% y/y (consensus: 5.0%). Imports
the goal of winning a majority in the July 2013 rose 6.0% y/y (consensus: 3.5%)
upper house elections.
Japan Monthly Non-adjusted Current Account Balance China CPI Inflation (%)
3,500
(JPYbn) 10
3,000 8
2,500
6
2,000
1,500 4
1,000 2
500
0
0
-500 -2
-1,000 -4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: MoF Source: NBS

10. PSI20 weekly review
• BPI (BPI PL), BCP (BCP PL) and BES (BES PL) were the main
winners last week in the PSI20 Portuguese stock benchmark
index. BES has announced it has issued €500mn 5-year bonds
with a 4.75% coupon at mid swap + 400bps. This is another
signal of progressive reopening of wholesale funding markets to
Portuguese banks. Moreover, Portuguese banks funding from
the ECB stood at €52.78bn at the end December 2012. This
represents a decline of €1.82bn from the €54.61bn registered in
the previous month;
• Mota-Engil (EGL PL), the Portuguese construction company, rose
more than 9% over last week. Mr. Jorge Coelho resigned as
Chairman of the Executive Committee and Vice Chairman of the
company. The new CEO, Mr. Gonçalo Martins (former CFO), gave
an interview to the local press saying that the company will
continue following the strategic plan already announced. The
group’s growth remains focused in Africa and Latam;
• Portugal Telecom (PTC PL)’s shares increased 8.9%. The Brazilian
Development Bank has approved a loan of BRL5.4bn to Oi to
support the company’s investment plans for the 2012-14 period.
The project includes investments in expanding and improving the
capacity of the broadband network, fixed and mobile, cable TV
infrastructure, and investments in information technology. Source: Bloomberg

11. Last week’s market highlights
Ford (F US) Share Price ($)
20
• Ford (F US)’s stock price increased 3.2% over last week. 18
The automaker announced that it will double its 16
shareholder dividend. Ford raised its quarterly dividend to 14
$14.00
$0.10 per share from $0.05 per share, which raises the 12
annual payout to $1.5bn from $762mn; 10
• American Express (AXP US) rose 2.73%. The company pre- 8
6
announced in-line Q4 2012 earnings and a restructuring 2010 2011 2012
American Express (AXP US) Stock Price ($)
plan including a $400mn restructuring charge given 60 $61.24
changing industry dynamics, a $342mn rewards related 56
liability adjustment and a $153mn charge for 52
reimbursements. Full earnings will be released after the 48
close on January 17th; 44
• Nokia (NOK1V FH) pre-announced positively on Thursday. 40
The company indicated that faster than expected cost cuts 2011 2012
Nokia (NOK1V FH) Daily Stock Price Changes (%)
2013
allowed a material beat in Networks. Nokia expects 13- 12 10.8
10
15% operating margins vs. Consensus 8%. Devices showed 8
6
a narrower loss, driven by higher Asha volumes and lower 4
2.2
1.7
opex. Nokia sees Q4 operating margin of 0-2% vs. 2
0
Consensus -6%. Q4 2012 Devices & Services sales were -2
-4 -2.5
€3.9bn, vs. Consensus €3.8bn. Total devices volume -6
-6.2
-8
reached 86.3mn units vs. Consensus 89mn. 7-Jan
Source: Bloomberg
8-Jan 9-Jan 10-Jan 11-Jan

12. What we are watching this week:
Event Date Hour (GMT) Survey Prior
• Euro-zone industrial production for November is due Public Holiday, Japan 14-Jan
Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks on US Economy in Atlanta 14-Jan 21:00
Monday and is expected to improve to -3.1% y/y Industrial Production nsa y/y, Italy 14-Jan 09:00 -0.3%
Euro-Zone Ind. Prod. wda y/y, Euro-Zone 14-Jan 10:00 -3.1% -3.6%
(from -3.6% in the previous month). German GDP Machine Tool Orders y/y, Japan 15-Jan 06:00 -21.3%
CPI y/y, Germany 15-Jan 07:00 2.1% 2.1%
annual data for 2012 will be release on Tuesday; GDP y/y NSA, Germany 15-Jan 08:00 0.8% 3.0%
• Final December inflation data for Germany, Italy and Consumer Price Index y/y, Spain
CPI - EU Harmonized y/y, Italy
15-Jan
15-Jan
08:00
09:00
2.9%
2.6%
2.9%
2.6%
Spain is due Tuesday and is likely to be unchanged CPI y/y, UK
Euro-Zone Trade Balance, Euro-Zone
15-Jan
15-Jan
09:30
10:00
2.7%
10.0B
2.7%
10.2B
from its flash estimates. Final December inflation Retail Sales y/y, Brazil
Empire Manufacturing, US
15-Jan
15-Jan
11:00
13:30
8.10%
0.0
9.10%
-8.1
data for the Euro-zone should be released Advance Retail Sales, US 15-Jan 13:30 0.2% 0.3%
Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas, US 15-Jan 13:30 0.4% 0.7%
Wednesday. It is expected to remain unchanged Producer Price Index y/y, US 15-Jan 13:30 1.4% 1.5%
Business Inventories, US 15-Jan 15:00 0.3% 0.4%
from its earlier estimate of 2.2% y/y; EU27 New Car Registrations, Euro-Zone 16-Jan 07:00 -10.3%
Trade Balance (Total) (Euros), Italy 16-Jan 09:00 2660M 2452M
• In the UK, the CPI, RPI, and PPI should be disclosed Euro-Zone CPI y/y, Euro-Zone 16-Jan 10:00 2.2% 2.2%
Consumer Price Index y/y, US 16-Jan 13:30 1.8% 1.8%
Tuesday. December retail sales data is due Friday Industrial Production, US 16-Jan 14:15 0.3% 1.1%
Capacity Utilization, US 16-Jan 14:15 78.5% 78.4%
and retail sales ex auto and fuel are expected to NAHB Housing Market Index, US 16-Jan 15:00 48.0 47.0
increase by 2.0% y/y; U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
ECB Publishes Monthly Report, Euro-Zone
16-Jan
17-Jan
19:00
09:00
• In the US, retail sales ex autos and fuel (due Housing Starts, US
Building Permits, US
17-Jan
17-Jan
13:30
13:30
890K
905K
861K
899K
Tuesday) are expected to increase by 0.4% m/m, Initial Jobless Claims, US
Philadelphia Fed., US
17-Jan
17-Jan
13:30
15:00
370K
6.0
371K
8.1
following 0.7% m/m in the previous month. Housing Real GDP y/y, China 18-Jan 02:00 7.8% 7.4%
Industrial Production y/y, China 18-Jan 02:00 10.2% 10.1%
starts, housing permits and the housing market Retail Sales y/y, China 18-Jan 02:00 15.0% 14.9%
Industrial Production y/y, Japan 18-Jan 04:30 -5.8%
index are expected to increase. The December CPI Capacity Utilization m/m, Japan 18-Jan 04:30 1.6%
Industrial Orders n.s.a. y/y, Italy 18-Jan 09:00 -0.1%
will be released Wednesday. It should remain Industrial Sales n.s.a. y/y, Italy 18-Jan 09:00 -4.7%
Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel y/y, UK 18-Jan 09:30 2.0% 2.0%
unchanged (1.8% y/y) from the previous month. U. of Michigan Confidence, US 18-Jan 14:55 75.0 72.9
Source: Bloomberg, Fincor

13. Next Week Preview: Economics
US Adjusted Retail Sales "Control Group" (m/m)
• The provisional estimate for the headline of the 1.0%
0.9%
0.8%
January’s University of Michigan Consumer Confidence 0.6%
0.5%
is expected to be released on Friday (14:55 GMT). The 0.3%
last minute “fiscal cliff” deal could have had an impact 0.1%
on sentiment. Moreover, gas prices have decreased 0.0%
-0.1% -0.1%
and equity prices rose. Nevertheless, the expiration of -0.4%
-0.3%
the payroll tax cut is going to hit all working individuals Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12
and could penalize consumer confidence; Source: US Census Bureau
US Consumer Confidence Indices
• The Empire State Index is due Tuesday (13:30 GMT), 120 100
100 90
while the Philly Fed Index should be released Thursday
80 80
(15:00 GMT). Both survey could reflect the deal to
60 70
avert the “fiscal cliff”. However, business confidence in
40 60
early January will probably also take into account that 20 50
the debt ceiling stand-off is continuing; 2007 2008 2009
Conference Board (RHS)
2010 2011 2012
University of Michigan (LH S)
• US Retail Sales will be announced on Tuesday (13:30 Source: Conference Board; U. of Michigan Survey Research Center
Germany: Annual Real GDP Growth
GMT). The ICSC chain stores sales suggest that 6%
3.7%
spending rose in December; 4% 3.0%
2%
• The focus for the weak in the Euro-zone could be the 0%
release of German GDP annual data for 2012. -2%
Consensus expect it to print at 0.8% y/y, down from -4%
3.0% in 2011. -6%
1991 1995 1999 2003 2007
-5.1%
2011
Source: German Federal Statistical Office

14. Next Week Preview: Earnings season in Portugal and Government
Debt Issuance Calendar
Jerónimo Martins announced Q4 France and Spain will be the
2012 Trading Statement highlights of the week
• The company reported Q4 2012 sales in line • Portugal will redeem €1.3bn of BT on Friday.
with consensus. Polish LfL sales grew 6.4%. The
Next week's Selected Bonds and T-Bills Supply
group opened 120 Biendronka stores in Q4 Issue Country Date Amount Hour (GMT)
BTF Apr 2013 France 14-Jan €3.2-3.6bn
taking the total to 2125; BTF Jun 2013 France 14-Jan €1.2-1.6bn
• The Portuguese earnings season will continue T-Bills Apr 2013
BTF Jan 2014 France
US
14-Jan
14-Jan
€1.6-2bn
$32bn
with Galp’s trading update on January 21st. T-Bills Jul 2013 (new) US 14-Jan $28bn
Letras Jan 2014 Spain 15-Jan
Company Event Date Letras Jun 2014 Spain 15-Jan
Galp Trading Update 21-Jan
T-Bills Feb 2013 US 15-Jan
Sonae Trading Update 23-Jan
Portucel FY12 Results 29-Jan
Bund 15 Feb 2023 (new) Germany 16-Jan €5bn 10:30
BPI FY12 Results 30-Jan Bonos 3.75% 31 Oct 2015 Spain 17-Jan 09:30
BES FY12 Results 5-Fev Bonos 4.50% 31 Jan 2018 Spain 17-Jan 09:30
Semapa FY12 Results 7-Fev Obligaciones 4.70% 30 Jul 2041 Spain 17-Jan 09:30
BCP FY12 Results 8-Fev After-Market BTAN 2.50% 15 Jan 2015 France 17-Jan 09:50
Galp FY12 Results 11-Fev Before-Market OAT 3.75%25 Apr 2017 France 17-Jan €7-8bn 09:50
Jerónimo Martins FY12 Results 27-Fev OAT 1.00% 25 May 2018 (new) France 17-Jan 09:50
Zon FY12 Results 27-Fev
OATei 0.25% 25 Jul 2018 France 17-Jan 10:50
Sonae Indústria FY12 Results 27-Fev
OATi 1.30% 25 Jul 2019 France 17-Jan €1.3-1.7bn 10:50
EDP Renováveis FY12 Results 28-Fev
Sonaecom FY12 Results 7-Mar OATei 1.85% 25 Jul 2027 France 17-Jan 10:50
REN FY12 Results 7-Mar Next week's Selected Bonds and T-Bills redemptions
Altri FY12 Results 8-Mar Issues Country Date Amount Hour (GMT)
Cofina FY12 Results 8-Mar BTAN 3.75% France 12-Jan €17.7bn
Sonae FY12 Results 13-Mar After-Market BOT (3m) Italy 14-Jan €3bn
Mota Engil FY12 Results 14-Mar BOT (12m) Italy 14-Jan €8.5bn
EDP FY12 Results 15-Mar After-Market BTF France 17-Jan €8bn
ESFG FY12 Results 15-Mar
Letras Spain 18-Jan €5.6bn
Portugal Telecom FY12 Results 28-Mar
BT Portugal 18-Jan €1.3bn
Banif FY12 Results n.a.
Source: Bloomberg, Companies information Source: Fincor

15. Next Week Preview: European and US Corporate Calendar
Carrefour is expected to release US: The Financial sector will
Q4 2012 sales on Thursday probably be the highlight
• Carrefour’s LfL sales growth (ex-fuel and calendar) • JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs,
is expected to be negative for hypermarkets in Bank of America and Citigroup will release
France. Will the Detroit Auto Show (January, 15th- results this week;
16th) be a catalyst for the european sector? • Intel and GE will also be closely followed by
Country Company Event Time (GMT) Ticker (Bloomberg) investors.
Monday, 14 January
UK Taylor Wimpey PLC Q4 2012 Trading Update 07:00 TW/ LN Company Event Time (GMT) Ticker (Bloomberg)
Tuesday, 15 January Monday, 14 January
Switzerland Geberit AG Q4 2012 Trading Update 06:00 GEBN VX PPG Industries Inc Q4 2012 Earnings Release PPG US
UK Burberry Group PLC Q3 2013 Trading Update 07:00 BRBY LN Tuesday, 15 January
UK Ashmore Group PLC Q2 2013 Trading Update 12:00 ASHM LN
Lennar Corp Q4 2012 Earnings Release Before Market Opening LEN US
Austria Telecom Austria Capital Markets Day TKA AV
Forest Laboratories Inc Q3 2013 Earnings Release Before Market Opening FRX US
France Casino Guichard Perrachon SA Q4 2012 Trading Update 17:15 CO FP
Switzerland Lindt & Sprungli FY Trading Statement LISN SW Linear Technology Corp Q2 2013 Earnings Release LLTC US
UK Michael Page International Q4 Trading Statement MPI LN Wednesday, 16 January
Sweden Hennes & Mauritz AB December 2012 Trading Update HMB SS Charles Schwab Corp/The Q4 2012 Earnings Release Before Market Opening SCHW US
UK Rio Tinto PLC Q4 2012 Trading Update RIO LN US Bancorp Q4 2012 Earnings Release Before Market Opening USB US
France Aeroports de Paris December 2012 Trading Update ADP FP Bank of New York Mellon Corp/The Q4 2012 Earnings Release 11:30 BK US
Germany Fraport AG December 2012 Trading Update FRA GR
JPMorgan Chase & Co Q4 2012 Earnings Release 12:00 JPM US
Wednesday, 16 January
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The Q4 2012 Earnings Release 12:30 GS US
UK Experian PLC Q3 2013 Trading Update 07:00 EXPN LN
Germany Metro AG Q4 2012 Trading Update 07:00 MEO GR eBay Inc Q4 2012 Earnings Release After Market Close EBAY US
Denmark Chr Hansen Holding A/S Q1 2013 Earnings Release 07:00 CHR DC Thursday, 17 January
UK Barratt Developments PLC Q2 2013 Trading Update 08:00 BDEV LN BlackRock Inc Q4 2012 Earnings Release Before Market Opening BLK US
Thursday, 17 January UnitedHealth Group Inc Q4 2012 Earnings Release Before Market Opening UNH US
Netherlands Koninklijke Ahold NV Q4 2012 Trading Update 05:45 AH NA Fifth Third Bancorp Q4 2012 Earnings Release 11:30 FITB US
France EADS 2012 year-end Airbus press conference EAD FP
Bank of America Corp Q4 2012 Earnings Release 12:00 BAC US
Belgium Delhaize Group SA Q4 2012 Trading Update 06:00 DELB BB
Citigroup Inc Q4 2012 Earnings Release 13:00 C US
Netherlands ASML Holding NV Y2012 Earnings Release 06:00 ASML NA
Switzerland SGS FY Results SGSN VX Capital One Financial Corp Q4 2012 Earnings Release 21:05 COF US
France Carrefour SA Q4 2012 Trading Update 06:30 CA FP Intel Corp Q4 2012 Earnings Release After Market Close INTC US
UK African Barrick Gold PLC Q4 2012 Trading Update 07:00 ABG LN Friday, 18 January
UK Mothercare Q3 Sales MTC LN General Electric Co Q4 2012 Earnings Release Before Market Opening GE US
UK Aberdeen Asset Management PLC Q1 2013 Trading Update 08:00 ADN LN Johnson Controls Inc Q1 2013 Earnings Release 12:00 JCI US
France Remy Cointreau SA Q3 2013 Trading Update 08:30 RCO FP
Morgan Stanley Q4 2012 Earnings Release 12:15 MS US
France Accor SA Q4 2012 Trading Update 16:45 AC FP
Schlumberger Ltd Q4 2012 Earnings Release SLB US
UK Booker Group PLC Q3 2013 Trading Update BOK LN
UK Premier Oil PLC Q4 2012 Trading Update PMO LN Consolidated Edison Inc Q4 2012 Earnings Release ED US
UK Associated British Foods PLC Q1 2013 Trading Update ABF LN State Street Corp Q4 2012 Earnings Release STT US
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

16. Next Week Preview: Lower Saxony Elections and Idea of the week
Lower Saxony to hold elections Idea of the Week: Acerinox
• The acquisition of ThyssenKrupp’s stainless steel
on January 20th unit by Outokumpu shows that the
• The week will end with the state parliamentary consolidation in the European sector is moving
election in Lower Saxony, Germany’s fourth biggest forward;
federal state, on Sunday, January 20th; • Acerinox (ACX SM) continues trying to reduce its
• It should be the last German state to go to the gearing;
polls ahead of the General Election at the end of • Capacity expansion in Malaysia will allow the
September; company to target new customers in the region;
• The state is governed by a CDU/FDP coalition since • H2 2012 showed weaker than expected
2008, a replica of the current coalition at national conditions in both the US and European
level; Markets. A moderate restocking could support
• Chancellor Angela Merkel’s position at the national the stock in Q1 2013.
level is still very strong, in contrast to her SPD rival. 120
Acerinox vs. IBEX35 Index
110
100
90
80
70
60 1 Ja n 2012 = 100
50
Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13
Source: Infratest dimap Source: Bloomberg Acerinox IBEX35 Index

17. Charts we are watching
• The ECB statement was more hawkish that expected.
Now, the market seems to believe that, unless there’s a
significant fall in sentiment, the ECB is unlikely to cut the
refi rate in the near-term. Moreover, 10-year sovereign
bond yields on the Euro periphery continue to fall. Both
factors have supported the Euro/USD exchange rate that
reached 1.3343 at the end of last week. But, with the
euro area economy expected to remain weak at the
beginning of 2013, a higher Euro/USD will not provide
much help to the gradual recovery that is expected later
in the year. Source: Bloomberg
140
BES and Banco Popular Relative Performance
• Last week, BES has announced that it issued €500mn 5-
120
year bonds with a 4.75% coupon at mid swap +400bps.
Moreover, the bank is planning to issue further bonds 100
BES
this year in order to reduce its reliance on ECB funding.
80 Banco Popular
Banco Popular announced that it has issued €750mn 2.5-
year bonds with a 4.125% coupon at mid swap +362bps. 60
Both issues suggest the progressive reopening of 40
wholesale funding markets for Portuguese and Spanish 1 Ja n 2010 = 100
20
banks with a clear positive impact on both stock prices. 2010 2011 2012
Source: Bloomberg

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