The document provides an economic and market summary for the week of November 26th, 2012. Key points include:
- Global stock markets rebounded last week on hopes of a US fiscal cliff agreement. However, resolving the fiscal cliff remains uncertain.
- In the eurozone, Moody's downgraded France's credit rating and further loan delays weighed on markets. Flash PMIs pointed to ongoing eurozone contraction in Q4.
- In Portugal, the sixth review found the bailout program on track, but unemployment and recession risks remain.
- US housing data continued to show recovery, while initial jobless claims fell. China's manufacturing PMI rose above 50, supporting steady recovery there.
The document provides an overview of recent economic indicators from Europe, the US, and Japan in February 2013. It summarizes that the consensus GDP forecast for the Eurozone remained at 0.1% for 2013 and 1.2% for 2014. While the EU industrial confidence decreased slightly, consumer confidence improved considerably. The GDP forecast for the US decreased to 1.9% for 2013, and the forecast for Japan improved significantly to 1.2% for 2013 and 2014.
Economic indicators - Economic Monthly Overvies November 2012SappiHouston
The document summarizes recent economic indicators from Europe, the US, Japan, and Germany. It reports that GDP growth forecasts for the EU and Japan were revised downward for 2012 and 2013, while forecasts improved slightly for the US. The German economy remains resilient despite the euro crisis, while the outlook for the EU deteriorates. Unemployment in the EU continues to edge higher.
The document provides an economic analysis of the Indian economy through a top-down approach, beginning with a macroeconomic analysis and then discussing various sectors. It summarizes that while India experienced strong growth in recent years, the economy has slowed in 2011-2012 due to high inflation, fiscal deficits, and a lack of investment. Several key sectors like manufacturing and mining experienced declines or slower growth during this period. Services remains the largest sector in India's economy, growing at over 9% annually from 2001-2010.
1) Business surveys point to weakening economic conditions in the eurozone, as the composite PMI fell to its lowest level in over 3 years and German business confidence declined.
2) UK GDP rebounded in Q3, exiting recession territory, driven mainly by a strong expansion in services output, though doubts remain if this strength can be sustained without temporary factors.
3) Banks in core eurozone countries have been reducing their exposures to peripheral economies like Greece, Italy and Spain, which may lead to less private sector lending and weaker growth prospects in those countries.
Global economic growth is slowing as manufacturing production stagnates in many regions. Financial markets have declined sharply due to ongoing sovereign debt problems in Europe and weak growth prospects in the US and Europe. Food shortages are causing humanitarian crises for millions in Africa and Haiti.
The document provides an economic review for the first quarter of 2007 in Botswana. It summarizes key economic data and trends. Real GDP growth contracted by 0.8% in 2005/06 due largely to a drop in diamond production. Non-mining private sector growth was higher at 2.5%. Inflation declined to 7.2% in February 2007 and is forecast to continue falling. The government budget surplus was large at 8.1% of GDP for 2005/06, and spending remains well below targets. Exports grew strongly in 2006, driven by increases in diamonds, nickel/copper, and other minerals and manufactured goods.
The Polish economy grew by 3.0% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2010, in line with forecasts. Growth was driven by consumption, inventory restocking, and net exports. However, the economy lost momentum compared to the previous quarter due to a sharp drop in fixed business investment affected by severe winter weather. Unemployment increased in the first quarter but began falling rapidly in April, suggesting recovery is underway in the labor market. Inflation moderated in the first quarter and further in April. The central bank does not expect to change interest rates until 2011. Overall, while the economy experienced a soft patch in the first quarter, growth is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2010.
The document provides an overview of recent economic indicators from Europe, the US, and Japan in February 2013. It summarizes that the consensus GDP forecast for the Eurozone remained at 0.1% for 2013 and 1.2% for 2014. While the EU industrial confidence decreased slightly, consumer confidence improved considerably. The GDP forecast for the US decreased to 1.9% for 2013, and the forecast for Japan improved significantly to 1.2% for 2013 and 2014.
Economic indicators - Economic Monthly Overvies November 2012SappiHouston
The document summarizes recent economic indicators from Europe, the US, Japan, and Germany. It reports that GDP growth forecasts for the EU and Japan were revised downward for 2012 and 2013, while forecasts improved slightly for the US. The German economy remains resilient despite the euro crisis, while the outlook for the EU deteriorates. Unemployment in the EU continues to edge higher.
The document provides an economic analysis of the Indian economy through a top-down approach, beginning with a macroeconomic analysis and then discussing various sectors. It summarizes that while India experienced strong growth in recent years, the economy has slowed in 2011-2012 due to high inflation, fiscal deficits, and a lack of investment. Several key sectors like manufacturing and mining experienced declines or slower growth during this period. Services remains the largest sector in India's economy, growing at over 9% annually from 2001-2010.
1) Business surveys point to weakening economic conditions in the eurozone, as the composite PMI fell to its lowest level in over 3 years and German business confidence declined.
2) UK GDP rebounded in Q3, exiting recession territory, driven mainly by a strong expansion in services output, though doubts remain if this strength can be sustained without temporary factors.
3) Banks in core eurozone countries have been reducing their exposures to peripheral economies like Greece, Italy and Spain, which may lead to less private sector lending and weaker growth prospects in those countries.
Global economic growth is slowing as manufacturing production stagnates in many regions. Financial markets have declined sharply due to ongoing sovereign debt problems in Europe and weak growth prospects in the US and Europe. Food shortages are causing humanitarian crises for millions in Africa and Haiti.
The document provides an economic review for the first quarter of 2007 in Botswana. It summarizes key economic data and trends. Real GDP growth contracted by 0.8% in 2005/06 due largely to a drop in diamond production. Non-mining private sector growth was higher at 2.5%. Inflation declined to 7.2% in February 2007 and is forecast to continue falling. The government budget surplus was large at 8.1% of GDP for 2005/06, and spending remains well below targets. Exports grew strongly in 2006, driven by increases in diamonds, nickel/copper, and other minerals and manufactured goods.
The Polish economy grew by 3.0% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2010, in line with forecasts. Growth was driven by consumption, inventory restocking, and net exports. However, the economy lost momentum compared to the previous quarter due to a sharp drop in fixed business investment affected by severe winter weather. Unemployment increased in the first quarter but began falling rapidly in April, suggesting recovery is underway in the labor market. Inflation moderated in the first quarter and further in April. The central bank does not expect to change interest rates until 2011. Overall, while the economy experienced a soft patch in the first quarter, growth is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2010.
Global economic growth is strengthening as advanced economies rebound, led by the United States, Japan, and the euro area. However, risks remain from high unemployment in Europe, slowing growth in emerging markets like China, and potential deflation in the euro area. To support stable growth, policies should gradually reduce monetary stimulus in the US, repair banking systems and continue monetary easing in Europe, launch structural reforms in Japan, and boost reforms in all countries to address scars from the crisis and raise potential growth.
Relationship between growth, financial development and income inequality.
- Is there nonlinearity in the relationship?
- What are the factors that affect the degree of impact of financial development on income inequality?
The document provides an overview of recent developments in global financial markets and the world economy. Key points include:
1) Equity markets showed weakness in the past 4 weeks after the announcement of QE3, while bank stocks sold off on mixed earnings reports.
2) The IMF cut its global growth forecasts and warned of downside risks from fiscal issues in the US and a possible slowdown in China. Growth is expected to remain sluggish.
3) S&P downgraded Spain's credit rating to BBB- with a negative outlook, citing risks to growth and budget targets. Moody's is expected to announce a rating action on Spain this month.
The document summarizes recent US and North Carolina economic conditions. It finds that while US GDP growth has been slow in recent years, growth is expected to pick up in the second half of 2013. North Carolina's economy is also recovering, with declining unemployment and improving housing and retail sales. Both economies continue facing challenges from federal budget uncertainty and global economic weakness.
This document provides a comparative study of consumer trends in Latin America and Asia-Pacific emerging markets. It finds that while incomes are rising across these regions, Latin America suffers from greater income inequality which impacts spending patterns. The middle class makes up a smaller portion of households in Latin America compared to Asia-Pacific. Looking ahead, the document predicts technology and communications as well as health and wellness will be growing consumer sectors in these emerging markets in the coming years as incomes rise further.
D&B Analysis | Flat Spot in US Economic Recovery (Fall 2012)Dun & Bradstreet
In this report, D&B confirms a flat spot in US economic recovery for the first half of 2012. Unfortunately, the second half of 2012 is likely to reflect the same.
- The document summarizes major market developments in June 2011, including disappointing US economic data and European sovereign debt issues that dampened investor confidence and sparked an equity market pullback.
- Key factors that contributed to the market downturn included weak economic data from the US and Europe, as well as ongoing concerns about European sovereign debt and the Greek debt crisis.
- The resource-heavy Canadian market, as measured by the S&P/TSX Composite, underperformed other markets in June due to its exposure to declining commodity prices. Energy and materials sectors saw some of the largest declines.
This monthly briefing highlights that global manufacturing production has improved. Economic recovery is slowly strengthening in developed economies; and public fiscal stimulus programmes have been a determinant factor in economic growth in many developing countries.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/index.shtml
The document summarizes the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Statement for 2010-2011. It notes that while India's economy is recovering rapidly from slowdown, inflationary pressures are rising. The policy stance must now focus on curbing inflation while still supporting growth. The statement reviews global economic conditions, domestic macroeconomic trends, and outlines the RBI's monetary policy approach and measures to balance growth and inflation.
The document provides an economic outlook for Belgium and the world. It summarizes that:
1) The global economy remains positive, led by steady growth in the US, while China's economy is slowing and concerns exist over emerging markets.
2) The Belgian economy continues growing with rising confidence indicators and increased labour market dynamics.
3) Positive labour market conditions are likely to strengthen the activities of Federgom members, represented by a trade association.
Highlights of the third quarter of 2012. Net sales amounted to SEK 27,171m (25,650) and income for the period was SEK 985m (825), or SEK 3.43 (2.90) per share. Net sales improved by 5.9%, of which 4.6% was organic growth, 5.1% acquisitions and –3.8% changes in exchange rates.
The document summarizes an investment outlook report from Goodbody Wealth Management for the second quarter of 2015. It finds that:
1) The euro area recovery is gaining momentum, driven by quantitative easing from the ECB, low oil prices, a weak euro, and improved economic forecasts.
2) Euro area equities are positioned to continue performing well due to both external factors benefiting exports as well as signs of sustainable recovery in the domestic economy.
3) While bond markets lack value, central bank actions globally should limit downside risks, and absolute return strategies may provide modest gains with similar risk levels.
State of economy - economic survey of India 2013-14Swapnil Soni
The document provides an economic survey of India for 2013-14 prepared by the Ministry of Finance. It analyzes key economic indicators such as GDP growth, production, prices, external trade and debt, monetary trends, and government finances. Some highlights include:
- Real GDP growth slowed to 4.5% in 2013-14, the second successive year of sub-5% growth.
- Inflation remained above target levels and food inflation was a major contributor to overall inflation.
- Exports grew 4.1% in 2013-14 while imports declined 8.3%, improving the current account deficit.
- The survey identifies structural constraints like low manufacturing and agricultural productivity that are hampering the growth potential of
Brazil has a large and growing economy with a population of 191 million. It has experienced steady economic growth in recent decades and macroeconomic stability. Exports have increased substantially and now include manufactured goods, though the country still relies heavily on primary commodities. The financial system has also expanded and become more sophisticated in recent years.
AS/COA
680 Park Avenue
New York, NY
View map
February 18, 2015
Registration: 8:30 a.m. to 9:00 a.m.
Conference: 9:00 a.m. to 10:30 a.m.
AS/COA, ANBIMA, and BRAiN held an on-the-record presentation by Joaquim Levy, Minister of Finance of Brazil.
Welcoming Remarks:
Randy Melzi, Senior Director, Public Policy Programs and Corporate Relations, AS/COA
José Carlos Doherty, Director, BRAiN; Head, ANBIMA
Speaker:
Joaquim Levy, Minister of Finance, Brazil
Download the presentation.
Event Information: Diogo Ide | dide@as-coa.org | 212-277-8352
COA Corporate Membership: Monica Vieira | mvieira@as-coa.org | 212-277-8344
Press Inquiries: Adriana La Rotta | alarotta@as-coa.org | 212-277-8384
The document analyzes household savings rates in Spain. It finds that:
1) Spain's household savings rate fell to a record low of 8.1% in 2012 as households cut back savings to support consumption in the face of negative income shocks from high unemployment and fiscal consolidation measures.
2) Savings declined across all households but likely fell more for lower-income and highly indebted groups, slowing the pace of household deleveraging.
3) Looking ahead, household savings rates in Spain are expected to remain below historical levels as households need to continue restraining consumption to repay debt, before gradually increasing over the long term.
The document summarizes recent economic developments and the near-term outlook. Recent data shows ongoing recovery in advanced economies, though emerging markets are slowing. World trade growth has increased with advanced economy recovery. Risks include further slowdown in emerging economies if financial conditions tighten. Policy priorities are gradually withdrawing stimulus in advanced economies, while emerging economies should improve financial regulation and structural reforms.
The Thai economy grew more slowly than expected in the third quarter of 2011, expanding just 0.5% quarter-over-quarter and 3.5% year-over-year. Private investment and exports continued to drive growth, but agricultural output declined due to floods. Household consumption growth also slowed as consumers became more cautious due to flooding. The economy is expected to grow only 1.5% for the full year due to flooding impacts. The Bank of Thailand is expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points to boost the economy and restore confidence.
The document provides an economic and market summary for November 2012 and December outlook:
1) In November, European equities were positive while Japanese indices rose on weakening of the yen. The S&P 500 was flat as investors watched the US fiscal negotiations. Portuguese and Spanish bonds advanced on the Greece deal.
2) Data shows the Eurozone economy remains in recession while the US and China have remained resilient. Political decisions around fiscal cliffs and budgets will drive markets in December.
3) China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.6 in November, pointing to a modest recovery continuing. Housing is a positive in the US but business investment is a concern. The Eurozone outlook remains challenging with southern Europe
The document provides a weekly summary of market and economic perspectives from December 10th, 2012. It discusses equity market performance, fiscal cliff negotiations in the US, disappointing US economic data, upcoming central bank meetings and decisions, and economic indicators and forecasts from various countries. Key points covered include ECB rate cuts and downward revisions to eurozone growth forecasts, declines in German and UK GDP forecasts, a drop in the US unemployment rate, and interest rate cuts by central banks in Australia and Poland.
Global economic growth is strengthening as advanced economies rebound, led by the United States, Japan, and the euro area. However, risks remain from high unemployment in Europe, slowing growth in emerging markets like China, and potential deflation in the euro area. To support stable growth, policies should gradually reduce monetary stimulus in the US, repair banking systems and continue monetary easing in Europe, launch structural reforms in Japan, and boost reforms in all countries to address scars from the crisis and raise potential growth.
Relationship between growth, financial development and income inequality.
- Is there nonlinearity in the relationship?
- What are the factors that affect the degree of impact of financial development on income inequality?
The document provides an overview of recent developments in global financial markets and the world economy. Key points include:
1) Equity markets showed weakness in the past 4 weeks after the announcement of QE3, while bank stocks sold off on mixed earnings reports.
2) The IMF cut its global growth forecasts and warned of downside risks from fiscal issues in the US and a possible slowdown in China. Growth is expected to remain sluggish.
3) S&P downgraded Spain's credit rating to BBB- with a negative outlook, citing risks to growth and budget targets. Moody's is expected to announce a rating action on Spain this month.
The document summarizes recent US and North Carolina economic conditions. It finds that while US GDP growth has been slow in recent years, growth is expected to pick up in the second half of 2013. North Carolina's economy is also recovering, with declining unemployment and improving housing and retail sales. Both economies continue facing challenges from federal budget uncertainty and global economic weakness.
This document provides a comparative study of consumer trends in Latin America and Asia-Pacific emerging markets. It finds that while incomes are rising across these regions, Latin America suffers from greater income inequality which impacts spending patterns. The middle class makes up a smaller portion of households in Latin America compared to Asia-Pacific. Looking ahead, the document predicts technology and communications as well as health and wellness will be growing consumer sectors in these emerging markets in the coming years as incomes rise further.
D&B Analysis | Flat Spot in US Economic Recovery (Fall 2012)Dun & Bradstreet
In this report, D&B confirms a flat spot in US economic recovery for the first half of 2012. Unfortunately, the second half of 2012 is likely to reflect the same.
- The document summarizes major market developments in June 2011, including disappointing US economic data and European sovereign debt issues that dampened investor confidence and sparked an equity market pullback.
- Key factors that contributed to the market downturn included weak economic data from the US and Europe, as well as ongoing concerns about European sovereign debt and the Greek debt crisis.
- The resource-heavy Canadian market, as measured by the S&P/TSX Composite, underperformed other markets in June due to its exposure to declining commodity prices. Energy and materials sectors saw some of the largest declines.
This monthly briefing highlights that global manufacturing production has improved. Economic recovery is slowly strengthening in developed economies; and public fiscal stimulus programmes have been a determinant factor in economic growth in many developing countries.
For more information:
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/index.shtml
The document summarizes the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Statement for 2010-2011. It notes that while India's economy is recovering rapidly from slowdown, inflationary pressures are rising. The policy stance must now focus on curbing inflation while still supporting growth. The statement reviews global economic conditions, domestic macroeconomic trends, and outlines the RBI's monetary policy approach and measures to balance growth and inflation.
The document provides an economic outlook for Belgium and the world. It summarizes that:
1) The global economy remains positive, led by steady growth in the US, while China's economy is slowing and concerns exist over emerging markets.
2) The Belgian economy continues growing with rising confidence indicators and increased labour market dynamics.
3) Positive labour market conditions are likely to strengthen the activities of Federgom members, represented by a trade association.
Highlights of the third quarter of 2012. Net sales amounted to SEK 27,171m (25,650) and income for the period was SEK 985m (825), or SEK 3.43 (2.90) per share. Net sales improved by 5.9%, of which 4.6% was organic growth, 5.1% acquisitions and –3.8% changes in exchange rates.
The document summarizes an investment outlook report from Goodbody Wealth Management for the second quarter of 2015. It finds that:
1) The euro area recovery is gaining momentum, driven by quantitative easing from the ECB, low oil prices, a weak euro, and improved economic forecasts.
2) Euro area equities are positioned to continue performing well due to both external factors benefiting exports as well as signs of sustainable recovery in the domestic economy.
3) While bond markets lack value, central bank actions globally should limit downside risks, and absolute return strategies may provide modest gains with similar risk levels.
State of economy - economic survey of India 2013-14Swapnil Soni
The document provides an economic survey of India for 2013-14 prepared by the Ministry of Finance. It analyzes key economic indicators such as GDP growth, production, prices, external trade and debt, monetary trends, and government finances. Some highlights include:
- Real GDP growth slowed to 4.5% in 2013-14, the second successive year of sub-5% growth.
- Inflation remained above target levels and food inflation was a major contributor to overall inflation.
- Exports grew 4.1% in 2013-14 while imports declined 8.3%, improving the current account deficit.
- The survey identifies structural constraints like low manufacturing and agricultural productivity that are hampering the growth potential of
Brazil has a large and growing economy with a population of 191 million. It has experienced steady economic growth in recent decades and macroeconomic stability. Exports have increased substantially and now include manufactured goods, though the country still relies heavily on primary commodities. The financial system has also expanded and become more sophisticated in recent years.
AS/COA
680 Park Avenue
New York, NY
View map
February 18, 2015
Registration: 8:30 a.m. to 9:00 a.m.
Conference: 9:00 a.m. to 10:30 a.m.
AS/COA, ANBIMA, and BRAiN held an on-the-record presentation by Joaquim Levy, Minister of Finance of Brazil.
Welcoming Remarks:
Randy Melzi, Senior Director, Public Policy Programs and Corporate Relations, AS/COA
José Carlos Doherty, Director, BRAiN; Head, ANBIMA
Speaker:
Joaquim Levy, Minister of Finance, Brazil
Download the presentation.
Event Information: Diogo Ide | dide@as-coa.org | 212-277-8352
COA Corporate Membership: Monica Vieira | mvieira@as-coa.org | 212-277-8344
Press Inquiries: Adriana La Rotta | alarotta@as-coa.org | 212-277-8384
The document analyzes household savings rates in Spain. It finds that:
1) Spain's household savings rate fell to a record low of 8.1% in 2012 as households cut back savings to support consumption in the face of negative income shocks from high unemployment and fiscal consolidation measures.
2) Savings declined across all households but likely fell more for lower-income and highly indebted groups, slowing the pace of household deleveraging.
3) Looking ahead, household savings rates in Spain are expected to remain below historical levels as households need to continue restraining consumption to repay debt, before gradually increasing over the long term.
The document summarizes recent economic developments and the near-term outlook. Recent data shows ongoing recovery in advanced economies, though emerging markets are slowing. World trade growth has increased with advanced economy recovery. Risks include further slowdown in emerging economies if financial conditions tighten. Policy priorities are gradually withdrawing stimulus in advanced economies, while emerging economies should improve financial regulation and structural reforms.
The Thai economy grew more slowly than expected in the third quarter of 2011, expanding just 0.5% quarter-over-quarter and 3.5% year-over-year. Private investment and exports continued to drive growth, but agricultural output declined due to floods. Household consumption growth also slowed as consumers became more cautious due to flooding. The economy is expected to grow only 1.5% for the full year due to flooding impacts. The Bank of Thailand is expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points to boost the economy and restore confidence.
The document provides an economic and market summary for November 2012 and December outlook:
1) In November, European equities were positive while Japanese indices rose on weakening of the yen. The S&P 500 was flat as investors watched the US fiscal negotiations. Portuguese and Spanish bonds advanced on the Greece deal.
2) Data shows the Eurozone economy remains in recession while the US and China have remained resilient. Political decisions around fiscal cliffs and budgets will drive markets in December.
3) China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.6 in November, pointing to a modest recovery continuing. Housing is a positive in the US but business investment is a concern. The Eurozone outlook remains challenging with southern Europe
The document provides a weekly summary of market and economic perspectives from December 10th, 2012. It discusses equity market performance, fiscal cliff negotiations in the US, disappointing US economic data, upcoming central bank meetings and decisions, and economic indicators and forecasts from various countries. Key points covered include ECB rate cuts and downward revisions to eurozone growth forecasts, declines in German and UK GDP forecasts, a drop in the US unemployment rate, and interest rate cuts by central banks in Australia and Poland.
O documento resume os principais eventos e índices do dia anterior e notícias esperadas para o dia em questão. Apresenta ainda cotações e variações dos principais mercados e índices mundiais.
Net neutrality is the principle that internet service providers should treat all data on the internet equally without charging users or content differently. On February 26th, the FCC approved a network neutrality plan to reclassify broadband internet as a public utility, banning paid prioritization tactics used by some ISPs. The document concludes by stating that Sherif El Refai supports implementing net neutrality regulations.
The document provides guidance on developing effective time management skills through identifying personal values and goals, prioritizing tasks, creating schedules, avoiding procrastination, and maintaining routines. It emphasizes the importance of self-management over rigid time management, experimenting to find what works best personally, and allowing flexibility for unexpected events. The recommendations include setting reasonable goals, breaking large tasks into smaller steps, rewarding accomplishments, and focusing on progress rather than perfection.
This document contains a series of math problems involving scientific notation, as well as notes about assignments and tests. It discusses evaluating expressions in scientific notation, writing numbers in scientific notation, and problems about license plates and using a calculator with scientific notation. It also mentions completing a Google Earth activity, reviewing workbook pages for a test the next day, and objectives for an AM test being due.
Este documento fornece informações sobre quatro páginas de um periódico português com tiragem de 22.500 exemplares, publicado mensalmente e focado em economia e negócios.
The document provides a weekly summary of financial markets and economic indicators from around the world:
1) US and European stock markets posted weekly gains as more companies reported better-than-expected earnings. The Bank of Japan announced plans to adopt a 2% inflation target and open-ended asset purchases starting in 2014.
2) Economic data showed signs of stabilization in the Eurozone but contraction continued in the UK and Spain. A survey in Germany pointed to improved business optimism.
3) Several countries such as Portugal, Poland, and Brazil saw slowing economic growth and weakening consumer spending, while data from China, South Korea, and the US pointed to modest expansion.
4) The IMF projected global growth of
The key points from the document are:
1) Portugal's 2013 budget draft includes tax increases and spending cuts worth 3.2% of GDP as the government implements further fiscal tightening measures.
2) Non-performing loans in Spain reached 10.51% in August, the highest level since 1962, as the economy continues to deleverage.
3) Eurozone trade data for August suggests GDP growth in Q3 could be a positive surprise, with exports up 3.7% and imports up 2.1%.
The document provides an overview of recent economic developments and market events:
- Portugal's 2013 budget draft includes fiscal tightening measures worth 3.2% of GDP through tax increases and spending cuts as the country's GDP is forecast to decline further.
- Spanish regional elections and the ongoing constitutional clash in Catalonia were important political events that could influence the timing of Spain's request for financial aid.
- Moody's kept Spain's credit rating at investment grade but on a negative outlook, seeing significant risks to Spain's economic outlook.
- Spanish banks' non-performing loan ratio reached a record high 10.51% in August as the economy continues to deleverage.
- Eurozone
The labor market in Brazil showed unexpected signs of strength in November. The unemployment rate dropped below expectations to 4.9%, its lowest level for November. The working population grew 2.8%, above the yearly average, despite weak economic growth. The number of non-working people declined for the fourth month in a row, suggesting more people are entering the workforce. Average incomes rose 5.3% year-over-year, accelerating the growth in total real payroll. However, the economist maintains a moderate growth forecast for 2013 due to expectations of slower workforce expansion and contained income growth in a context of full employment.
This document discusses the state of the European economy and issues that need to be addressed for continued recovery and structural progress. It notes that while economic expansion is ongoing, additional reforms are still needed to boost potential growth rates. It also emphasizes that monetary policy accommodation remains important to support inflation reaching its target and avoid "lower for longer" inflation, but that fiscal and structural policy actions are also warranted to share the burden with monetary policy. Overall it calls for coordinated efforts across these policy areas to take advantage of the current opportunity for growth while also remaining vigilant about financial stability risks.
The Lithuanian Economy, No 3, 29 April 2011Swedbank
- The Lithuanian economy experienced strong growth in the first quarter of 2011, with GDP increasing 6.9% year-over-year. This surpassed all expectations and was the highest growth since 2007.
- Exports and manufacturing continued to grow rapidly in the first quarter, increasing 51% and 21.7% respectively over the same period in 2010. Strong export growth has been the main driver of manufacturing growth.
- While retail trade increased 20% overall, most of this growth came from a 83.1% increase in motor vehicle sales. Excluding motor vehicles, retail trade rose only 4.9% indicating consumer spending growth remains uneven.
The Greek parliament passed additional austerity measures but Greece's debt remains unsustainable. The Troika acknowledged Greek debt is unsustainable and options like extending maturities or lowering interest rates could help. However, Greece will likely need more funds and its debt will exceed the 2020 target of 120% GDP. Further austerity has been associated with a 15% GDP decline making debt relief necessary to keep Greece in the eurozone.
The document provides an economic outlook for April 2013. It notes that the consensus GDP forecast for the euro area remained unchanged, while consumer confidence was stable and the IFO index for Germany edged down slightly. The US GDP forecast improved, and early indicators suggest firm housing starts. The Japanese GDP growth forecast also improved on expectations of aggressive monetary policy. Overall, the outlook suggests ongoing challenges for Europe with modest improvements expected in the US and Japan.
Global growth prospects have dimmed and risks have escalated. The euro area crisis has entered a new perilous phase, with the euro area economy expected to enter recession in 2012. Growth is also slowing in emerging markets due to weaker external demand. Immediate policy priorities are restoring confidence in the euro area, sustaining growth while implementing fiscal adjustments, and providing liquidity. Other advanced economies must address fiscal imbalances and repair financial systems while sustaining recoveries. Emerging markets need to respond to moderating domestic growth and slowing external demand from advanced economies. Global growth is projected to slow to 3.3% in 2012, a downward revision of 0.7 percentage points from previous forecasts.
The Economic Survey projects India's GDP growth to increase to 7.6% in 2012-13 and 8.6% in 2013-14, however these projections are considered ambitious. Fiscal consolidation is seen as key to achieving this level of growth. Industrial output growth remains a concern, with only a marginal recovery seen and doubts about sustainability. While exports are slowing, the global situation remains difficult and could lead to increased protectionism. Overhauling FDI policy by addressing sectoral issues is recommended to boost growth.
NewsLetter "Monthy Perspectives Fincor" Novembro 2012João Pinto
The document provides an overview and analysis of economic and market conditions in October 2012. Some key points:
1) October saw positive performance for risky assets, though the S&P 500 fell for the first time since May. Euro and US financial stocks performed well year-to-date.
2) The world economy maintains trend growth while addressing debt issues, particularly in Europe. Recent US and Chinese data showed some improvement.
3) The US presidential election outcome could impact policy direction. Concerns remain about the ability of US politicians to compromise on fiscal challenges.
4) Country-specific analyses note Portugal's ongoing recession but improved bond yields, while Spain's economic and fiscal outlook remains poor with high
Europe’s focus is shifting from austerity to growthQNB Group
1) Austerity policies implemented in response to Europe's sovereign debt crisis are facing increasing backlash as they are seen as preventing economic recovery and growth.
2) Recent poor economic data and rising unemployment are exacerbating opposition to austerity, as seen in recent governments falling in Netherlands and Romania.
3) Upcoming elections in Greece and France will impact austerity policies, with socialist candidate Francois Hollande in France calling for more growth-focused policies.
Perspectivas Semanais de Mercado Fincor- Semana 15 OutubroJoão Pinto
The document provides a weekly summary of markets and economic perspectives. It discusses weakness in equity markets following the Fed's QE3 announcement, earnings reports from major banks like JPMorgan and Citigroup, and downward revisions to global growth forecasts by the IMF. Other topics covered include industrial production in the Eurozone, China's exports, US consumer confidence reaching a 5-year high, and monetary policy decisions from central banks in Brazil, South Korea, Turkey and Japan.
The Eurogroup meeting on Greece's bailout program was inconclusive, postponing a decision on disbursing further aid and revealing disagreements between the IMF and Eurogroup on debt targets. Portuguese GDP contracted again in Q3 while unemployment rose to a new high of 15.8%. Spanish plans for transferring assets to its bad bank are advancing with interest from foreign investors. Japanese Prime Minister Noda will hold elections in December amid calls for more aggressive monetary easing.
The document summarizes recent economic indicators from Europe, the US, and Japan in March 2013. In Europe, GDP growth forecasts were lowered slightly but industrial confidence and consumer confidence improved. Unemployment continued to rise in the Eurozone. In the US, GDP growth forecasts were also lowered and consumption slowed due to tax increases. In Japan, GDP growth forecasts remained stable and the economy appears to have stabilized.
The document discusses the global economic situation in 2014. It notes that while some key economies like the US saw growth, the Eurozone recovery stalled. Emerging markets also saw more mixed performance, with slowing growth in China and Brazil. Overall, the tone is one of cautious optimism, as some major economies improved but risks remained from geopolitical issues and uneven recovery.
Economic indicators December 2012 - part 1SappiHouston
The document summarizes recent economic indicators from Europe, the US, Japan, and Germany. It reports that the GDP growth forecast for Europe in 2013 decreased slightly to 0.1%, while forecasts improved for the US and Japan. The German business climate index rose in December as companies were less pessimistic about the future despite viewing their current situation as somewhat worse. Unemployment in the EU remained high at 10.7% in January 2013.
Pine Economic Calendar: High speed monetary policyBanco Pine
Industrial production in Brazil is estimated to have risen 0.5% in July, the second consecutive monthly rise. Annual industrial production is expected to fall 2.5% in July, an improvement from the 3.5% decline in June. Inflation as measured by the IPCA index is projected to rise 0.38% in August, slightly below the 0.43% rise in July. The central bank is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 7.5% at its next meeting, having reduced it by 50 basis points at its prior meeting.
The document discusses policies to promote faster recovery in the euro area. It finds that weak domestic demand, rather than exports, has held back growth. While some structural reforms have helped potential growth, others are needed to address problems like high unemployment, low inflation, and constrained credit in some countries. The document recommends that monetary, fiscal and structural policies be used in a coordinated manner, with more stimulus from the ECB, greater flexibility of fiscal rules, increased public investment, and further structural reforms to boost potential growth.
This document recommends a pair trade of going long on Repsol and shorting Total. Repsol has outperformed Total year-to-date with returns of 7.83% compared to 2.08% for Total. Analyst recommendations also favor Repsol over Total. Repsol also has stronger growth prospects and trades at a lower valuation based on price-to-earnings and net debt to EBITDA ratios. The document provides market data and upcoming events for both companies to support the recommended pair trade position.
The document provides a weekly summary of financial markets and economic news from the week of January 14th, 2013. Key points include:
1) Mario Draghi at the ECB meeting signaled rates may not be cut in the next few months, strengthening the euro. Spain successfully raised €5.8 billion in bonds.
2) Japan announced a JPY10 trillion fiscal stimulus package and plans for the BOJ and government to target a 2% inflation rate.
3) US companies American Express, Alcoa, JP Morgan, and others reported earnings this week while economic data showed a widening US trade deficit.
This document analyzes a proposed pair trade involving going long on PPR and shorting LVMH on January 3rd, 2013. PPR is a luxury and lifestyle company with a market capitalization of €18.12 billion, while LVMH is a luxury goods company with a market cap of €72.004 billion. The document compares the companies' price and return data, analysts' recommendations, market multiples, and next earnings report dates to make the case that PPR presents a better investment opportunity than LVMH.
This document appears to be tracking multiple pair trades of stocks over time. It provides information such as the trade date, entry prices, current prices, ratios at entry and currently, and percentage gains or losses. On average, the pair trades have seen a gain of 0.86% with an average aggregate gain of 5.22%.
Fincor- Sociedade Corretora, S.A. provides brokerage services including receiving, executing, and transmitting orders. The document discusses August market recaps and perspectives for September, including key events in Greece, Germany, the ECB, and Spain. It also summarizes economic data and performance in the US, Europe, emerging markets, Portugal, and major stock indices. The disclaimer at the end notes that Fincor only provides brokerage services and the document should not be considered investment advice.
Fincor- Sociedade Corretora, S.A. provides brokerage services including receiving, executing, and transmitting orders. The document discusses weekly market perspectives and does not constitute investment advice. Fincor will not accept responsibility for any use or effects of the content. It summarizes discussions on Greece requesting a delay in austerity measures, opposition from some European leaders to more delays, and economic data from Greece, Spain, Germany, France, and the Eurozone.
1. 2012
th,
Weekly Markets
26
n Perspectives
November
For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
2. Weekly Summary
Risk assets rebounded last week. Global stocks Portugal passed the sixth review of its
markets had their best weekly gains in many programme. The Troika said that downside risks
months, reflecting increased optimism after to growth were significant. Given this economic
president Obama expressed confidence on a fiscal backdrop, will Portugal be able to meet its fiscal
cliff agreement with Congress. However, the road targets of 5% of GDP this year and 4.5% of GDP in
to a fiscal compromise is still expected to be 2013?
bumpy.
The EU Summit on a spending plan for the years
The Euro-zone stock markets had to face two 2014-2020 showed strong differences in opinion
negative events: the downgrade of France and and no agreement.
further delay in the release of the loans to Greece.
In China, the November HSBC “flash”
Moody’s has downgraded France from Aaa to Aa1 manufacturing PMI rose to a 13-month high. In
(outlook remains Negative) due to a sustained loss Europe, the November “flash” PMIs for France,
of competitiveness and the uncertain fiscal outlook. Germany and the euro area seem to point to a
The market reaction has been fairly modest. Euro-zone contraction in Q4.
The Eurogroup was unable to reach a consensus The Japanese election is scheduled for December
last Tuesday on Greece. A new meeting will be held 16th. The pronouncements of the LDP leader are
today to decide in which conditions will be released influencing the market as they are seen as the
the next bailout tranche to Greece. policies of the future prime minister of Japan.
3. Portugal passes sixth review of its programme
• The statement by the European Commission, reforms are proceeding;
ECB, and IMF on the sixth review mission to • Rising unemployment weighs on households’
Portugal was published last week; incomes, while the recession in the euro area is
• Portugal has passed the 6th quarterly review of beginning to bear on exports dynamics;
its rescue programme. The country will receive • The statement mentions that downside risks to
the next €2.5bn tranche of its loan. With this, growth are significant. Real GDP in 2013 is
Portugal will have received 87% of its €78bn expected to decline by 1%, but should gradually
rescue loan; return to positive quarterly growth rates during
• The programme is considered to be broadly on the year. Is this projection too optimistic?
track; • A expenditure review in underway by the
• According to the statement, external and fiscal Portuguese government. Results will be discussed
adjustment continue to advance, and structural during the seventh review (February 2013).
Current Account Balance 20112012F 2013F
IMF (WEO October 2012) -6.4%-2.9% -1.7%
EU/IMF Financial Assistance Programme 2011-2014 -9.0%-6.7% -4.1%
Unemployment Rate 20112012F 2013F
IMF (WEO October 2012) 12.7%15.5% 16.0%
EU/IMF Financial Assistance Programme 2011-2014 12.1%13.4% 13.3%
Government Budget Deficit Target 20112012F 2013F
6th Review Mission 5.0% 4.5%
EU/IMF Financial Assistance Programme 2011-2014 5.9% 4.5% 3.0%
Source: IMF; Bank of Portugal Source: Bank of Portugal, IMF
4. BoP and INE releases monthly IFO rebounds in November
economic indicators • The overall German business climate indicator
• In October 2012, the monthly coincident rose from 100 in October to 101.4 in
indicators for the y/y evolution of economic November;
activity and private consumption, calculated by • The rise was unexpected. However, the index
the Bank of Portugal, increased compared to the remains at its second lowest level since
previous month (see chart); February 2010;
• However, the economic climate indicator, • It is probably too soon to conclude that
released by INE (the statistical office of Portugal) Germany is going through a renewed upturn,
fell in September and October, interrupting the which would be positive for the peripheral
previous tenuous ascending path. economy.
BoP Monthly Economic Indicators Ifo Business Climate Indicator and German GDP
6 115 5%
4
105 0.9% 1%
2 Activity Coincident
Indicator - Monthly 95 -3%
0 93.2
-1.7
-2 Private Consumption
Coincident Indicator - 85 -7%
-4 Monthly
-6 -4.5 75 -11%
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
-8
Ifo Business Expectations (Adv. 3 mths, LHS) German GDP (% y/y, RHS)
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source: Bank of Portugal Source: Ifo Institute; Eurostat
5. Moody’s downgrades France Euro-zone recession keeps going…
• Moody’s put France on negative outlook in • The Euro-zone “flash” composite PMI index
February and S&P downgraded it in January. increased slightly in November from 45.7 to 45.8
France is now rated Aa1 by Moody’s. However (see chart);
bond yields remain very low (see chart); • The pick-up in the composite index reflects an
• The downgrade can cut the lending capacity of increase in the manufacturing index offsetting a
the EFSF and ESM; fall in the service index. The service index fell to a
• It can also strain the relationship between 40-month low, pointing to the negative effects of
Germany and France; the austerity and to a weakening labour market;
• Will France be pushed towards more austerity • The German composite index increased from 47.7
measures to reduce its budget deficit to 3% of to 47.9, while the French index rose from 43.5 to
GDP next year? 44.6;
10-Yr Government Bond Yield Composite PMI and Euro-zone GDP
4.0% 4.0%
65 1.5%
1.0%
3.5% 3.5% 60
0.5%
3.0% 3.0% 55 -0.10% 0.0%
-0.5%
2.5% 50
2.2% 2.5% -1.0%
45 45.8 -1.5%
2.0% 2.0%
-2.0%
Germany 1.4% 40
1.5% 1.5% -2.5%
France
35 -3.0%
1.0% 1.0% 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 Composite PMI (LHS) Euro-zone GDP (q/q, RHS)
Source: Bloomberg Source: Markit and Eurostat
6. Spanish Banks NPLs at 10.71% Catalonia went to the polls
• NPLs increased by €3.45bn to €182bn in • Artur Mas called the election after Madrid
September (+2% m/m), reflecting a weak refused more fiscal autonomy for Catalonia;
economy, the Real Estate sector adjustment and • Catalan people are increasingly in favour of
high unemployment levels; independence;
• Private deposits fell 7.3% y/y (+1.4% m/m); • Catalonia is the most indebted of the regions (see
• Loans to the private resident sector decreased chart);
4.9% y/y. Total loans declined 2.2% y/y; • The economic fundamentals remain weak in
• Sovereign debt holdings increased 46% y/y and Spain. The country is still expected to request
5% m/m (to 6.9% of total assets). ECB funding support from the euro area. Pressure on Spain is
stood at €378bn at the end of September. likely to mount in 2013 in light of its gross bond
issuance (€90bn).
Regional Government Debt
(% of region's GDP)
25% 22%
21%
20% 18% 18%
16%
15% 13% 12%
12% 12%
11% 11% 10% 11% 10% 11%
9% 9%
10%
5%
0%
Madrid
canarias
Navarra
Extremadura
Galicia
Murcia
Andalucia
Baleares
Aragon
Castilla y Leon
Cantabria
Castilla-La Mancha
Pais Vasco
Valencia
Asturias
Cataluna
La Roja
Source: Bank of Spain Source: Bank of Spain
7. US: NAHB Housing Market Index is now at its highest level
since May 2006 – Housing continues to strengthen
• Housing data released last week (housing starts, • Initial jobless claims dropped 41,000 to 410,000
building permits, existing home sales and NAHB during the week ending November 17th. The US
housing market index) continues to suggest a Department of Labor disclosed that the elevated
recovery in the US housing market; claims readings from the past two weeks were
• November consumer sentiment was revised distorted by Hurricane Sandy;
down in the final estimate. The decline was likely • The flash estimate of the US Markit
explained by weakness in the stock market in manufacturing PMI in November rose to a five-
recent weeks; month high 52.4 from 51.3 in October.
460
NAHB Index vs. US Existing Home Sales 85 U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence Initial Jobless Claims (000s)
50 5.5
82.7 440
41
80
40 5.0
420
75 410
30 4.79 4.5
400
70
20 4.0 380
65
10 3.5 360
60
0 3.0 55 340
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
NAHB Index (LHS) Existing Home Sales (mn annualized, RHS) 50 320
Source: National Association of Home Builders; 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
National Association of Realtors Source: U. of Michigan Research Center Source: US Department of Labor
8. Cyprus close to EU/IMF bailout China: PMI supports steady
The rescue could amount to around €17bn
•
(c.100% of Cyprus’s GDP), of which €10bn will be recovery
to refinance banks; • The November HSBC flash manufacturing PMI
• Banks’ exposure to Greece (160% of GDP) led to rose to a 13-month high of 50.4 (49.5 in
massive losses, forcing Cyprus to ask Russia for a October), moving above the 50 threshold for
€2.5bn loan late last year; the first time since October 2011 (see chart);
• Cyprus requested a bailout in June and has been • The output index reached a 13-month high.
in negotiations with the Troika since November New export orders rose above 50 for the first
9th; time since April 2012;
• The European Commission sees the country’s • The positive signs seen in the September and
deficit at 5.7% of GDP next year and the debt October activity data seem to have been
ratio reaching 96.7%. sustained into November.
Cyprus Real GDP growth (y/y)
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-2.7% -2.2%
-4%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
9. Japan: Will the upcoming elections change the
macroeconomic outcome ?
• Since the lower house dissolution, the leader of • The new administration in Japan will probably
the LDP (the largest opposition party) has spoken be aggressive on monetary policy, pushing for a
about reform the BOJ monetary policy; higher inflation target and for bond buying by
• The LDP will probably win a majority or near- BOJ;
majority in the lower house. Nevertheless, the • LDP’s “Revitalization Plan for Japan’s Economy”
LDP will need a coalition partner in order to pass includes measures in the tax system and in the
legislation through the upper house; energy sector (e.g. overcome electricity-supply
• There´s little clarity on fiscal policy because the constraints).
LDP is split. There’s a group calling for more Japan: Government Debt vs.
spending (higher public investment) and a group 210%
Government Budget 10%
concerned about fiscal deficit and government 200%
8%
debt. However, an expansionary budget is likely in 190%
6%
the near term; 180%
• Increased pressure on the BOJ to buy JGBs; 170% 4%
• The LDP’s economic policies intends to end yen 160%
2%
appreciation and “the creation of a framework for 150%
stronger collaboration between the government 140% 0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
and BoJ and the implementation of bold Government Debt as % of GDP (LHS)
monetary easing, including revisions to the BoJ Government Budget Deficit as % of GDP (RHS)
Law”; Source: Central Intelligence Agency; Bloomberg
10. PSI20 weekly review
• Sonae Indústria (SONI PL) fell 5.4%, the most in the
PSI20. The company reported 3rd quarter 2012 results on
November 16th. Although Sonae Indústria is now more
efficient after the restructuring done over last years, its
strong exposure to macro uncertainty in Europe and high
financial leverage remain significant concerns for
investors;
• Jerónimo Martins (JMT PL) rose 6.6% to €14.5. The
company’s Chairman said that Jerónimo Martins wants
to have about 30 to 40 stores in Colombia next year.
More details could be announced at its upcoming
Investor’s Day in Lisbon on December 11st;
• Galp (GALP PL)´s CEO stated that he expects exports to
reach €4.2bn in FY12. With potencial upside to resources
estimates from both Mozambique and Brazil, Galp could
deliver one of the best production and earnings growth
rates in the European oil and gas sector. The stock was up
5.5% last week;
• Banco Espirito Santo (BES PL) rose 3.7% over the week.
The bank announced a R$ 100mn capital increase for its
Brazilian unit (80% BES and 20% Bradesco). Source: Bloomberg
11. Q3 2012 Mota-Engil Results: Net profit increase 11% y/y to
€7mn
• Mota-Engil (EGL PL) reported Q3 2012 results. Revenues reached €675mn, up 16% y/y and 5% above
consensus, reflecting the good performance of the international unit (more than compensating the
weakness of the domestic unit);
• Q3 2012 EBITDA rose 9% y/y to €83mn, a 3% beat vs. consensus. EBIT stood at €53mn, up 6% y/y. Net
profit was €7mn, which compares to €11mn from consensus. Higher minorities reflect the strong
performance of the Angolan unit. Net debt deceased 1% q/q;
• The order book fell 6% q/q;
• The re-negotiation of the Portuguese shadow tolls’ remuneration (that are currently paid by availability)
is ongoing;
• The company continues to diversify its revenue sources;
• Regarding the privatization of the Portuguese Airport Operator (ANA), Mota-Engil’s stake in the
consortium should be small.
€ thousand Q3 2011 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Change % Q/Q Change % Y/Y
Turnover 582,121 530,637 675,009 27% 16%
EBITDA 75,606 72,417 82,693 14% 9%
EBIT 50,457 48,103 53,336 11% 6%
Net Income 16,207 20,564 23,220 13% 43%
Non Controlling Interests 9,945 6,766 16,257
Net profit to the Group 6,262 13,798 6,963 -50% 11%
Source: Company data
12. Last week’s market highlights
Hewlett Packard share price ($)
• Hewlett-Packard (HPQ US) fell 3.0% over the week. The 50
45
company reported Q4 FY12 of $1.16, ahead of consensus 40
of $1.14. However, the company’s outlook for next 35
quarter was disappointing, although it maintained its 30
25
FY13 outlook. Sentiment and expectations around the 20
stock continue to be remarkably depressed. Hewlett- 15 12.46
Packard accused Autonomy, the software company it 10
Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12
4.5
bought last year, of several falsehoods that contributed Nokia share price (€)
4.0
to a $8.8bn writedown; 3.5
• Nokia (NOK1V FH) surged 30.5%. The company disclosed 3.0
€2.754
that it received reports that its Lumia 920 model had 2.5
sold out in Germany. Nokia still has a long way to go to 2.0
reach sustainable profitability. Nevertheless, investor 1.5
1.0
sentiment on Nokia shares and on the new Windows 8 Dec- 11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec- 12
Nokia Lumia 920/820 phones were overly negative; 3.5
Gamesa Share price (€)
• Gamesa (GAM SM) rose 9.9% to €1.703. Gamesa India 3.0
2.5
announced that it will develop 47.6MW wind farm in
2.0
Maharashtra. The company presented last October its 1.5
1.703
2012-15 business plan. Gamesa targets a €100mn fixed 1.0
cost reduction and will implement several restructuring 0.5
moves. Jan-12 Mar- 12
Source: Company data
May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12
13. What we are watching this week:
CALENDAR - Event Date Hour (GMT) Survey Prior
• Euro-zone finance ministers and Troika BOJ Minutes of Oct 30 monetary policy meeting 26-Nov 23:50 n.a. n.a.
Japan BOJ Governor Shirakawa speech 26-Nov n.a. n.a. n.a.
representatives will attempt to reach an Euro-Zone Finance Ministers meet on Greek Debt 26-Nov 11:30 n.a. n.a.
GfK Consumer Confidence Survey ,Germany 26-Nov 12:00 6.2 6.3
agreement on Greece matters today. FED Chairman Bernanke gives brief opening remarks at College Fed 27-Nov 13:30 n.a. n.a.
Will a deal be announced on a reshuffle Hungary monetary policy decision
Portugal to hold final vote on 2013 Budget
27-Nov
27-Nov
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
Q3 Real GDP details (y/y), UK 27-Nov 09:30 0.0% 0.0%
of the Greek bailout programme? Will OECD November Economic Outlook, Euro-Zone 27-Nov 10:00 n.a. n.a.
Durable Goods Orders, US 27-Nov 13:30 -0.8% 9.9%
some debt relief be offered to Greece? Richmond Fed Manufact. Index ,US 27-Nov 15:00 n.a. -7
The discussion will start at 11:30 GMT; Conf. Board Consumer Confidence, US (Nov)
Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (y/y) ,Euro-Zone
27-Nov
28-Nov
15:00
09:00
73.0
2.8%
72.2
2.7%
• On Wednesday, the ECB will release its New Home Sales, US
Federal Reserve Beige Book, US
28-Nov
28-Nov
15:00
19:00
388K
n.a.
389K
n.a.
data on monetary developments in the Brazil Copom monetary policy decision 28-Nov n.a. 7.25% 7.25%
Unemployment Change (000's), Germany 29-Nov 08:55 16K 20K
Euro-zone for October; Unemployment Rate, Germany 29-Nov 08:55 6.9% 6.9%
Business Climate Indicator, Euro-Zone 29-Nov 10:00 -1.60 -1.62
• There will be various inflation figures Euro-Zone Economic Confidence, Euro-Zone 29-Nov 10:00 84.5 84.5
Q3 Real GDP (revision) QoQ (Annualized), US 29-Nov 13:30 2.8% 2.0%
for November later in the week Initial Jobless Claims, US 29-Nov 13:30 390K 410K
Continuing Claims, US 29-Nov 13:30 3321K 3337K
(Germany, Spain, Italy, Euro-zone); Consumer Spending (y/y), France 30-Nov 07:45 -0.5% -0.3%
• In the US, the durable goods report for Consumer Confidence, Portugal
Economic Climate Indicator, Portugal
30-Nov
30-Nov
10:00
10:00
n.a.
n.a.
-55.3
-4.6
October will be disclosed Tuesday; Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate
Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (y/y)
30-Nov
30-Nov
10:00
10:00
11.7%
2.4%
11.6%
2.5%
• The Conference Board measure of Japan nationwide CPI (Oct)
Industrial Production (m/m), Portugal
30-Nov
30-Nov
n.a.
11:00
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
-12.0%
consumer confidence (Tuesday) and the Japan industrial production (prelim. Oct) 30-Nov n.a. n.a. n.a.
Retail Sales (m/m), Portugal 30-Nov 11:00 n.a. -4.1%
October personal and spending report GDP (IBGE) y/y ,Brazil 30-Nov 11:00 1.9% 0.5%
Gross Domestic Product y/y, Canada 30-Nov 13:30 1.2% 1.2%
(Friday) should also be watched closely; Personal Income, US (Oct) 30-Nov 13:30 0.2% 0.4%
Personal Spending, US (Oct) 30-Nov 13:30 0.1% 0.8%
• Q3 2012 real GDP data for Switzerland Chicago Purchasing Manager, US 30-Nov 14:45 51.0 49.9
China manufacturing PMI (Nov) 1-Dec n.a. n.a. 50.2
and Sweden are due Thursday. Korea trade balance (Nov) 1-Dec n.a. n.a. n.a.
14. Next Week Preview: Economics
US Conf. Board Consumer Confidence
• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence for 120
November is due Tuesday (November 27th). The 100
fall in gasoline prices, the recent pick-up in job 80
growth and the recovery in the housing market 60
should continue to support consumer sentiment. 40
However, the fall in equity prices at the beginning 20
of the month and fiscal cliff uncertainty could 0
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
have a negative effect;
• The latest orders data from public homebuilders
suggest that US housing market continues to
recover. October’s new home sales will be
released Wednesday (November 28th).
Nonetheless, Hurricane Sandy could have had
some impact;
• Brazil Q3 2012 Real GDP will be released Friday. 2.0% Brazil Real GDP (q/q)
Real GDP growth is expected to have accelerated.
1.3%
If confirmed, the central bank will probably stop 0.9% 1.0%
0.8%
cutting rates. Interest rates have been cut by 0.6%
0.4%
525bp since mid-2011. Both monetary and fiscal 0.1% 0.1%
policies seems to be expansionary, at the -0.2%
Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec- 10 Mar- 11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec- 12
moment. Source: Bloomberg
15. Next Week Preview: Eurogroup meeting and Portugal earnings season
The Eurogroup meets again Portugal: This week’s results
today
• The Eurogroup and the IMF were not able to • Soares da Costa (SCOAE PL) will report its Q3
find an agreement to finish the Greek 2012 results on November 29th (before market
programme review and proceed to the payment open). A poor performance is expected for the
of the next financing tranche; domestic market. However, investor should focus
• Official lenders are reported to be considering a on the performance of the Angolan and US units;
debt buyback program, a cut on interest rates • Banif (BNF PL) will disclose Q3 2012 earnings on
charged on Greek loans (or even allow for a November 30th. B/S deleverage, assets disposals
grace period), and to lengthen maturities; and restructuring costs should penalize the bank’s
• According to press reports, the Eurogroup is results. The Bank recapitalization plan should
working on ways to bring down the debt to GDP remain the investors’ main focus;
ratio more aggressively; • Teixeira Duarte (TDSA PL) is expected to
• However, European member states still oppose announce Q3 2012 results on November 30th. A
outright haircuts on Greek loans; weak performance in the domestic unit should
• An agreement at today’s meeting would allow reflect the depressed market environment.
the payment of the Q3 2012 (€31.3bn), the Q4 International markets (particularly Brazil) should
2012 (€5bn) and probably also the Q1 2012 continue growing. Retail and the Hotels unit
(€8.3bn) financing tranches, totaling €44bn. should show positive signs.
16. Charts we are watching (I)
• Glencore (GLEN LN)’s takeover of Xstrata (XTA LN) Glencore and Xstrata share prices
130 140
got the go-ahead from both sets of shareholders last
120 Glencore 130
Tuesday. This deal was only possible after Glencore Xstrata 120
proposed a revised offer of 3.05 new shares for 110
110
every Xstrata share, up from 2.8. Moreover, Europe’s 100
antitrust regulator announced more modest than 100
90
expected conditions to clear the deal. Glencore must 90
now secure a final approval from China and South 80 80
Dec. 31, 2011 = 100
African authorities. The Glencore Xstrata seems to 70 70
be an attractive story from an EPS momentum Jan-12
Source: Bloomberg
Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12
(commodity mix, self-help) and growth point of view. 8 Banco Popular Share Price (€)
7
• Banco Popular (POP SM)’s EGM recently approved a
6
€2.5bn rights issue to meet capital needs from Oliver
5
Wyman’s stress test. The rights will trade until
November 28th, and the new shares will start trading 4
on December 6th. Once completed, the bank is 3
expected to have confortable capital ratios. The 2
stock is down c.70% YTD. Given the weak domestic 1 0.55
economy backdrop, will its business model allow the 0
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
bank to achieve higher ROEs in the mid-term? Source: Bloomberg
17. Charts we are watching (II)
• Zon (ZON PL) and Sonaecom (SNC PL) rose 5.3% and ZON and Sonaecom Share Prices
130
4.3%, respectively over the last week. Both stocks
outperformed the Portuguese Stock Market Index 120 Dec. 31, 2011 = 100
PSI20. ANACOM, the Portuguese telecom regulator,
announced that it intends to release the regulation on 110
fibre until the end of the year. Investors seem to remain 100
focused on a possible M&A deal between the two
companies and the meaningful impact that it should 90 ZON
Sonaecom
bring to both. Zon and Sonaecom seem to have a strong 80
fit. A deal would allow significant cost synergies and Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12
Source: Bloomberg
create a strong integrated player to compete with
Portugal Telecom. JPY/USD (JPY per 1 USD) (RHS) Topix vs. JPY/USD exchange rate
880 Topix Stock Market Index 84
• The Topix stock market index showed again strong gains (LHS) 83
on a weaker yen and easing expectations. Japanese 840 JPY/USD (JPY per 1 USD) 82
(RHS)
stocks were supported by the LDP election manifesto 800 81
(released on November 21st), that included significant 80
monetary easing, a 2% inflation target, and more than 760 79
3% nominal GDP growth. At the monetary policy 720
78
meeting on November 20th, the BOJ Policy Board voted 77
680 76
unanimously to maintain the current policy rate and to Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12
keep the size of the Asset Purchase Programme. Source: Bloomberg
18. Disclosure Section
This research report is based on information obtained from sources which we believe to be credible and reliable, but is
not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. All the information contained herein is based upon information
available to the public.
The recipient of this report must make its own independent assessment and decisions regarding any securities or
financial instruments mentioned herein.
This report is not, and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or related
financial instruments. The investment discussed or recommended in this report may be unsuitable for investors
depending on their specific investment objectives and financial position.
The material in this research report is general information intended for recipients who understand the risks associated
with investment. It does not take account of whether an investment, course of action, or associated risks are suitable
for the recipient.
Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment
strategies discussed or recommended in this research report and should understand that the statements regarding
future prospects may not be realized. Investors may receive back less than initially invested. Past performance is not a
guarantee for future performance.
Fincor – Sociedade Corretora, S.A. accepts no liability of any type for any indirect or direct loss arising from the use of
this research report.
Recommendations and opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date referred on this research report.
Current recommendations or opinions are subject to change as they depend on the evolution of the company or may
become outdated as a consequence of changes in the environment.
Fincor - Sociedade Corretora, S.A. provides services of reception, execution, and transmission of orders.