Wildfire Management Tool: What It Can Do & How to Make It Do More
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The Wildfire Management Tool (WMT) is a decision support system that predicts potential fire behavior using on-scene fire behavior observations, unlike models like BehavePlus and FARSITE. It aims to provide tactical decision support to wildland firefighters. The WMT displays complex fire behavior data simply, predicts fire behavior at any location, and shows thresholds of control. It also seeks to determine trigger points where fire behavior may change, add a wind field model, and simulate short-term fire behavior. The tool is used by agencies like the US Forest Service and CALFIRE.
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Wildfire Management Tool: What It Can Do & How to Make It Do More
- 1. Bruce Schubert, Emxsys WILDFIRE MANAGEMENT TOOL What It Can Do & How to Make It Do More NASA World Wind Europa Challenge September 19-22, 2012, Como Italy
- 2. Bruce Schubert • Software Architect, Designer, Developer • Emxsys Open Source Developer • Emergency Management Geomatics • Wildfire Management Tool • AeroComputers Mission Management System • Software Architect and Developer • UltiChart Mission Management System for Police and Fire Helicopters • Cartographer • Nationwide Street Level Maps • Georeferenced Video Synchronized with Maps • Fire Mapping with Aircraft and EO/IR Sensors • Ventura County Fire Department • Software Development Manager • ICS • Situation Unit Leader • Field Observer • Volunteer • Firefighter/Battalion Chief • Search, Rescue and First Aid • CPR Instructor • Sound Technician (FOH and Recording)
- 3. http://emxsys.com Wildfire Management Tool The Art of the Campbell Prediction System The Science of BEHAVE
- 4. Doug Campbell’s Wildland Fire Prediction and Communication System (CPS) Doug Campbell
- 5. Rothermel’s Fire Spread Model Richard C. Rothermel
- 6. WMT: A Simplified Display of Complex Data Inputs Location Outputs
- 7. Vision Statement • For wildland firefighters • Who need tactical decision support tools • The Wildfire Management Tool (WMT) • Is a decision support system • That predicts the potential fire behavior • Unlike BehavePlus and FARSITE • This product uses on-scene fire behavior observations
- 8. Fire Behavior 101 Fire behavior is the manner in which a fire reacts to the influences of: • Fuel • Weather • Topography
- 9. Basic Fire Behavior Nomenclature HEAD Spot fire LEFT FLANK Origin RIGHT FLANK REAR or HEAL
- 10. Slope and Aspect Derived from Terrain
- 11. Fuel Model Data from Web Map Servers
- 12. Determine Fire Behavior at Any Location Direction of Maximum Spread and Flame Length
- 13. Show Fire Behavior in Familiar Terms Haul Chart
- 14. Firefighters Can Predict Fire Behavior Fire Behavior is greater when force vectors are aligned.
- 15. Fire Behavior
- 16. Campbell Prediction System Learn from the Past—Predict the Future What Does the Fire Tell You? • Alignment of Forces Concept • In-alignment tracks • Trigger Points • Geographic/Temporal • Fuel Flammability Curves • Replications
- 17. Case Study: South Canyon
- 19. How to Make It Do More
- 20. The Problem With Models 1. The model is inaccurate. Solving one problem 2. The model is too complex. exacerbates the other. Drawing Hands, M.C Escher
- 21. Develop A Model Based on Ground Truths Learn from the Past—Predict the Future • Build a Fire Behavior Observation Database • Local • Regional • International • Data collected by Field Observers via Georeferenced Photos • Photos must display horizontal and vertical references • Observations codified by Fire Behavior Analysts • Photo queries viewed by Incident Commanders
- 22. Add a Wind Field Model • Incorporate terrain effects into the surface winds • Incorporate a diurnal slope flow model • Need for modeling lee winds
- 23. Determine Trigger Points A trigger point is a place on the terrain where a change in the alignment of forces will change the fire behavior, creating either an opportunity for suppression or a danger to firefighters. • Analyze fire behavior predictions over the spatial and temporal domains to determine when and where fire behavior may change. • Render trigger points on the terrain viewer and on a timeline.
- 24. Show Thresholds of Control • Drape a Threshold Of Control color overlay on the terrain. 1. LOW 0-1’ Fire will burn and will spread however it presents very little resistance to control and direct attack with firefighters is possible 2. MODERATE 1-3’ Fire spreads rapidly presenting moderate resistance to control but can be countered with direct attack by firefighters 3. ACTIVE 3-7’ Fire spreads very rapidly presenting substantial resistance to control. Direct attack with firefighters must be supplemented with equipment and/or air support. 4. VERY ACTIVE 7-15’ Fire spreads very rapidly presenting extreme resistance to control. Indirect attack may be effective. Safety of firefighters in the area becomes a concern. 5. EXTREME >15’ Fire spreads very rapidly presenting extreme resistance to control. Any form of attack will probably not be effective. Safety of firefighters in the area is of critical concern.
- 25. Simulate Short Term Fire Behavior • Create a 3D Fire Simulation display • Not a fire progression model • Render Head, Flanking and Backing fire behavior
- 26. Software Architecture CPS Plugin WorldWind Emxsys APIs NetBeans Module Libs: VisAD, NetBeans Platform WorldWind SDK JFreeChart
- 27. Software Design Fundementals Pick Two: Limited Use World Wind Write It Yourself
- 28. Who Uses It? • United States Forest Service • CALFIRE • Catalonia GRAF
Editor's Notes
- QualificationsInsights into my motivations (mission critical systems & time sensitive solutions)Domain expertise
- Author of the Campbell Prediction SystemRetired Fire Behavior Analyst for the US Forest ServiceFire Behavior Domain ExpertMeteorologist in the NavyCreated a language for communicating fire behaviorDeveloped a “boots on the ground” model Influenced by Countryman’s Researched “intuition” of successful firefightersPragmaticLearn from the Past—Predict the FuturePredict CHANGES!When and where fire behavior will changeTrigger pointsAlignment of Forces ConceptIn alignment/out of alignmentEffects of Solar PreheatingExacerbates fire behaviorMore research needed
- In 1972, aeronautical engineer Richard C. Rothermel, of the USDA Fire Sciences Lab at Missoula, Montana, developed a method for modeling the spread of wildfire. This equation is the backbone of many fire modeling systems, including BehavePlus and FARSITE.In the Rothermel equation, ROS is directly proportional to the propagation intensityand increases with increases in wind and slope (see the numerator). ROS isinversely proportional to the amount of energy required to ignite fuels (thedenominator).One of the key points about Rothermel’s fire spread equation is that the rate ofspread is a ratio between energy absorbed prior to ignition and the energy producedby burning. So, fire rate of spread is strongly influenced by the intrinsic fuelproperties and by the fire environment.In this model, fire spread is considered to be from one point to the next. A fire willspread if there is sufficient heat to preheat and ignite the next piece of fuel.This equation predicts the ROS at the head of the fire only. The numerator in this equation deals with the exothermic portion of the reaction (theheat source), while the denominator deals with the endothermic portion of thereaction (the heat sink).Input Variables:IR is the reaction intensityξ is the propagating flux ratioΦwis the wind coefficientΦsis the slope factorΡb is the oven-dry fuel bed bulk densityε is the effective heating numberQig is the heat of preignitionSource: FOR 434Fire Behavior BasicsChad HoffmanUniversity of Idaho
- The Emxsys software simplifies the display of complex data. The objective is to obfuscate the complexities keep the user’s mind on their mission, not on the system. This accomplished thru:A modern user interface designDrag and Drop supportUse of graphs, charts and colors for numerical dataDisplay:Ribbon barDrag and drop movie clipAspect and Slope movie clip
- I’d like to share my vision for this system. This is an idealistic statement that summarizes the purpose and intent of the product.Forwildland firefighters and incident command personnel engaged in the suppression of wildland fires Whoneed tactical decision support tools to ensure the safety of firefighters and the effective use of firefighting resources TheWildfire Management Tool (WMT) Is a decision support system and visualization tool Thatpredicts the potential fire behavior on the fireground UnlikeBehavePlus and FARSITE et al This productuses on-scene fire behavior observations in combination with fire behavior calculations to identify when and where trigger points and opportunities for control exist on the fireground.
- To be safe, firefighters must be able to predict the fire behavior in the areas that they are deployed.Fuels: The 1hr light fuels carry the flaming front of the fire, the light fuels react to RH within 1 hour.Weather: Wind is the dominate factor, preheating the fuel in front of it through radiation and convection.Topography: slope affects fire behavior in a manner similar to wind, in the absence of wind, slope can be a dominant force.The WMT software can provide you with an understanding of these relationships.“Fire behavior is defined as the manner inwhich fuel ignites, flame develops,fire spreads and exhibits other relatedphenomena as determined by theinteraction of fuels, weather, andtopography (i.e., the fire environment).”(Alexander 2006)
- Since we’re talking about wildland fires, we need a definition of the terms we’ll use:Nomenclature:HeadFlankRear/HealOriginSpot fireThe BlackROSFlame Length
- Let’s explore how NASA WorldWind is used to get topography.Slope influences fire behavior much like wind.Aspect is an important component of solar preheating of fuels.WorldWind provides access to digital terrain models.
- Let’s explore how NASA WorldWind is used to provide Fuel Models for the Rothermel fire spread equation.A fuel model is a preliminary representation of vegetation characteristics used in analyzing fire behavior and planning. The models provide wildland firefighters with a common way of describing fuels in the area.WorldWind is used to access USGS LANDFIRE web map servers.The pixel color at the crosshair is sampled from the image tiles in the WorldWind cache.Mathematical surface fire behavior and fire effects models and predictionsystems are driven in part by fuelbed inputs such as load, bulk density, fuel particle size,heat content, and moisture of extinction. To facilitate use in models and systems, fuelbedinputs have been formulated into fuel models. Fire behavior fuel models are used as input to the Rothermel (1972) fire spread model,which is used in a variety of fire behavior modeling systems. The fire behavior fuel modelinput set includes:• fuel load by category (live and dead) and particle size class 1Hr 0 - 0.25", 10Hr 0.25 - 1.0“ 100Hr 1.0 - 3.0" diameter• surface-area-to-volume (SAV) ratio by component and size class• heat content by live and dead (8000 Btu/lb)• fuelbed depth• dead fuel moisture of extinction.Burgen and Scott
- The Hauling Chart is recognizable fire behavior diagram in wildland firefighting. The Haul Chart was so named because it infers the relative intensity of the fire behavior through graphical representations of firefighters working—haul firefighters, equipment working—haul equipment, trees torching—haul retardant, and crown fire—haul everybody to safety. Since fireline intensity and flame length are directly proportional (Byram, 1959)—the larger one gets the larger the other gets—and since we can visually assess the flame length the Haul Chart is an excellent tool for measuring the safety and effectiveness of various fireline resources. The fireline interpretations of the Haul Chart are as follows: Figure 15. Haul Chart Interpretations (from Fireline Handbook, Appendix B.) FLAME LENGTH (Feet) FIRELINE INTENSITY (BTU/Ft/Sec INTERPRETATIONS 0-4 0-100 Persons using handtools can generally attack fires at the head or flanks. Handline should hold the fire. 4-8 100-500 Fires are too intense for direct attack on the head by persons using handtools. Handline can not be relied on to hold fire. Equipment such as dozers, engines, and retardant aircraft can be effective. 8-11 500-1,000 Fires may present serious control problems such as torching, crowning, and spotting. Control efforts at the head of the fire will probably be ineffective. 11+ 1000+ Crowning, spotting, and major runs are common, control efforts at the head of the fire are ineffective. ADJECTIVE RATING FLAME LENGTH IMPLICATION LOW 0-1 Fire will burn and will spread however it presents very little resistance to control and direct attack with firefighters is possible MODERATE 1-3 Fire spreads rapidly presenting moderate resistance to control but can be countered with direct attack by firefighters ACTIVE 3-7 Fire spreads very rapidly presenting substantial resistance to control. Direct attack with firefighters must be supplemented with equipment and/or air support. VERY ACTIVE 7-15 Fire spreads very rapidly presenting extreme resistance to control. Indirect attack may be effective. Safety of firefighters in the area becomes a concern. EXTREME >15 Fire spreads very rapidly presenting extreme resistance to control. Any form of attack will probably not be effective. Safety of firefighters in the area is of critical concern.
- A CPS tenet
- Pragmatic approach to predicting fire behavior on the fireground
- Demonstrate South Canyon and Dillon Fires
- WindNinja is a computer program that computes spatially varying wind fields for wildland fire application.It was developed to quickly simulate (less than 1 minute) terrain effects on wind flow for time sensitive emergency response applications. It requires elevation data for the modeling area (in the form of an ASCII Raster DEM file, FARSITE landscape file, GeoTiff, or ERDAS Imagine file), a domain-mean initial wind speed and direction, and specification of the dominant vegetation in the area. A diurnal slope flow model can be optionally turned on or off. Outputs of the model are ASCII Raster grids of wind speed and direction (for use in spatial fire behavior models such as FARSITE and FlamMap), a GIS shapefile (for plotting wind vectors in GIS programs), and a .kmz file (for viewing in Google Earth). WindNinja is typically run on domain sizes up to 50 kilometers by 50 kilometers and at resolutions of around 100 meters. WindNinja can be downloaded from http://firemodels.fire.org.
- The Hauling Chart is recognizable fire behavior diagram in wildland firefighting. The Haul Chart was so named because it infers the relative intensity of the fire behavior through graphical representations of firefighters working—haul firefighters, equipment working—haul equipment, trees torching—haul retardant, and crown fire—haul everybody to safety. Since fireline intensity and flame length are directly proportional (Byram, 1959)—the larger one gets the larger the other gets—and since we can visually assess the flame length the Haul Chart is an excellent tool for measuring the safety and effectiveness of various fireline resources. The fireline interpretations of the Haul Chart are as follows: Figure 15. Haul Chart Interpretations (from Fireline Handbook, Appendix B.) FLAME LENGTH (Feet) FIRELINE INTENSITY (BTU/Ft/Sec INTERPRETATIONS 0-4 0-100 Persons using handtools can generally attack fires at the head or flanks. Handline should hold the fire. 4-8 100-500 Fires are too intense for direct attack on the head by persons using handtools. Handline can not be relied on to hold fire. Equipment such as dozers, engines, and retardant aircraft can be effective. 8-11 500-1,000 Fires may present serious control problems such as torching, crowning, and spotting. Control efforts at the head of the fire will probably be ineffective. 11+ 1000+ Crowning, spotting, and major runs are common, control efforts at the head of the fire are ineffective. ADJECTIVE RATING FLAME LENGTH IMPLICATION LOW 0-1 Fire will burn and will spread however it presents very little resistance to control and direct attack with firefighters is possible MODERATE 1-3 Fire spreads rapidly presenting moderate resistance to control but can be countered with direct attack by firefighters ACTIVE 3-7 Fire spreads very rapidly presenting substantial resistance to control. Direct attack with firefighters must be supplemented with equipment and/or air support. VERY ACTIVE 7-15 Fire spreads very rapidly presenting extreme resistance to control. Indirect attack may be effective. Safety of firefighters in the area becomes a concern. EXTREME >15 Fire spreads very rapidly presenting extreme resistance to control. Any form of attack will probably not be effective. Safety of firefighters in the area is of critical concern.
- My purpose here today is to show you how I’m using NASA WorldWind to help save the lives of firefighters and improve the suppression of wildfires.Give credit where credit is due: NASA WorldWindQuality Triangle Attributes:GREAT: High QualityFAST: Short Time to MarketCHEAP: Low Cost