Wildfire Management Tool - Using NASA Web World Wind to Predict Wildfire Behavior

1. WILDFIRE MANAGEMENT TOOL WEB EDITION Using NASA Web World Wind to Predict Wildfire Behavior Southern California Government GIS User Group Torrance, CA September 16, 2015 http://emxsys.com
2. The Wildfire Management Tool (WMT) http://wmt.emxsys.com/ Mobile and desktop compatible web app http://emxsys.com
3. The Wildfire Management Tool (WMT) 1st place in the NASA World Wind Europa Challenge 2015 FOSS4G Europe, Como, Italy Bruce Schubert T.J. Walton Shawn Patterson http://eurochallenge.como.polimi.it/ http://emxsys.com
4. Built on NASA’s Web Word Wind SDK http://webworldwind.org/ • JavaScript API • Well crafted; extensible, easy to use • Custom shapes • Analytic surfaces, rigid shapes, terrain conforming surface shapes, volumes, place marks, geographic text, …. • 3D globe and continuous 2D map mode with extensible projections • KML and Collada support • Flexible and extensible viewing and navigation system • Shapefile support • WCS and WMS support 3D Globe Visualization Imagery Terrain http://emxsys.com
5. Embodies the Campbell Prediction System (CPS) • Alignment of Forces Concept • In-alignment tracks • Trigger Points • Geographic/Temporal • Fuel Flammability Curves • Replications http://emxsys.com Learn from the Past—Predict the Future What does the fire tell you?
6. Includes Rothermel’s Fire Spread Model http://emxsys.com Richard C. Rothermel
7. Fire Lookouts – Dynamic Spatiotemporal Markers Fire behavior is the manner in which a fire reacts to the influences of: fuel, weather, topography. • Simply drag-n-drop Fire Lookouts where you want to know the potential fire behavior. • Fire Lookouts show fuel model, flame lengths for head, flanks & heal, and direction of max spread. • Fire Lookouts react to changes in weather and temporal solar conditions. Developer Note: Fire Lookouts are custom composite renderables made from Placemark and GeographicText objects http://emxsys.com
8. New Symbol – The Wildfire Diamond Fire behavior depicted for all quadrants Intensity Flame Description Low 0-1’ Very little resistance to control and direct attack with firefighters is possible. Moderate 1’-3’ Moderate resistance to control but can be countered with direct attack by firefighters. Active 3’-7’ Substantial resistance to control. Direct attack with firefighters must be supplemented with equipment and/or air support. Very Active 7’15’ Extreme resistance to control. Indirect attack may be effective. Safety of firefighters in the area is a concern. Extreme > 15’ Extreme resistance to control. Any form of attack will probably not be effective. Safety of firefighters in the area is of critical concern. http://emxsys.com
9. Weather Scouts National Weather Service point weather forecasts are rendered using standard weather station symbols. • Simply drag-n-drop Weather Scouts to where you want to know the wx. • Weather Scouts show: • Sky cover • Wind speed and direction • Air temperature (F) • Relative humidity (%) • Weather Scouts are spatiotemporal markers. Developer Note: Weather Scouts are custom composite renderables made from Placemark and GeographicText objects. http://emxsys.com
10. Spatiotemporal Data at Reticule Temporal Widget • Application date and time • Sunrise and sunset times • Local solar hour angle (sun icon) • Sunrise and sunset hour angles (tick marks) Location Widget • View orientation (compass) • Solar azimuth (sun icon) • Slope (% and inclinometer) • Aspect (tick mark) • Ground elevation (m) Developer Note: Widgets are custom composite renderables made from ScreenImage and ScreenText objects; slope and aspect are computed from Globe and ElevationModel objects. Temporal Widget Location Widget Reticule http://emxsys.com
11. GeoMAC Wildfire Incidents http://www.geomac.gov/ • REST: http://wildfire.cr.usgs.gov/arcgis/rest/services/geomac_fires/MapServer • Active fires • WMS: http://wildfire.cr.usgs.gov/ArcGIS/services/geomac_dyn/MapServer/WMSServer • Perimeters: current, previous and historic • Recent fire activity: MODIS and HMS satellite imagery analysis Developer Note: Active Fire icon is a standard Placemark object. http://emxsys.com
12. NASA World Wind’s Earth Elevation Model • WMS: http://worldwind26.arc.nasa.gov/elev/ • Layers: • USGS NED 10m (USGS-NED) • ASTER GDEM Version 2 30m (aster_v2) • General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO) http://emxsys.com
13. LANDFIRE Fuel Models • REST: http://landfire.cr.usgs.gov/arcgis/rest/services/Landfire • WMS: http://landfire.cr.usgs.gov/arcgis/services/Landfire/US_130/MapServer/WMSServer http://www.landfire.gov/ http://emxsys.com
14. NWS Point Forecasts National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) REST Web Service • Documentation: http://graphical.weather.gov/xml/rest.php • REST: http://graphical.weather.gov/xml/sample_products/browser_interface/ndfdXML.htm • Results in Dynamic Weather Markup Language (DWML), i.e., XML • Processed by WMT-REST server and sent to WMT client via JSON http://emxsys.com
15. Wind Affects Fire • Flames are inclined towards the fuel • Fuels are heated by radiation and convection • Direction of max spread is inline with wind direction http://emxsys.com
16. Slope Affects Fire • Upslope fuels are closer to the flames. • The results are very similar to the effect of wind. • In the absence of wind, direction of max spread follows upslope vector http://emxsys.com
17. Solar Radiation Affects Fire • Changes the fuel flammability • Solar Radiation preheats the fuel • Drives off moisture, making the fuel more flammable • Changes with time and aspect • Creates an unstable fuel bed http://emxsys.com
18. CPS Alignment of Forces Concept • Variations in Wind, Slope and Preheating explain changes in fire behavior • Wind, Slope and Preheat are the primary forces • Fire Behavior is affected by variations in: • Strength • Dominance • Alignment • In-Alignment Forces Exacerbate Fire Behavior • Out-of-Alignment Forces Reduce Fire Behavior http://emxsys.com
19. Software Architecture http://emxsys.com
20. In Closing • Email: • “Bruce Schubert” bruce@emxsys.com • Website: • http://emxsys.com • WMT Web App: • http://wmt.emxsys.com • Wildfire Management Tool – Web open source project (wiki, issue tracker, and source code): • https://bitbucket.org/emxsys/wildfire-management-tool-web/ http://emxsys.com

Editor's Notes

Target audience:
GIS professionals
Fire department personnel
Developers

Speaker:
Bruce Schubert
Emxsys
Software Architect and Owner
Open Source Developer
Independent Contractor
WMT
WMTweb
AeroComputers
Software Architect and Developer
Cartographer
UltiChart Mission Management System
Ventura County Fire Department
Software Development Manager
Incident Command System
Situation Unit Leader
Field Observer
Volunteer Activities:
Firefighter/Battalion Chief – Kitsap County Fire Protection District #7
Search, Rescue and First Aid – California State Parks
CPR Instructor – American Heart Association
Sound Technician (FOH and Recording) – Coastline Bible Church

The WMT is …
an open source web app that predicts the potential fire behavior of wildfires
it is mobile and desktop compatible
functional, but still under development
technology preview

Vision Statement
For wildland firefighters and incident command personnel engaged in the suppression of wildland fires
who need tactical decision support tools to ensure the safety of firefighters and the effective use of firefighting resources,
the Wildfire Management Tool – Web Edition
is a decision support system and visualization tool that displays the potential fire behavior on the fireground using the CPS methodologies.
Unlike the WMT desktop software, this product runs in the web browser on smart phones, tablets, laptops and desktop computers.

The WMT is …
a 1st place winner in the NASA Word Wind Europa Challenge, Professional Track
was presented/demonstrated at FOSS4G in Como Italy in July 2015 by T.J. Walton
project is entirely self funded by Bruce Schubert
has a liberal open source license: BSD 3-Clause License
Development Team
Bruce Schubert, Software Architect, Developer
T.J. Walton, UI Designer
Shawn Patterson, Graphics

WMT is built on the NASA Web World Wind JavaScript Software Development Kit (SDK)
based on NASA World Wind for Java SDK
NASA does the heavy lifting
Allows me to focus on problem domain: Wildfire

NASA Web World Wind is …
a 3D virtual globe with additional 2D projections
an extensible JavaScript SDK, not an application
used to build applications
includes data visualization
terrain
surface images, analytic surfaces, 3D shapes
place marks
WMS

Patrick Hogan, World Wind Program Manager
Tom Gaskins, Software Architect

Doug Campbell developed the Campbell Prediction System, a pragmatic approach to predicting fire behavior on the fireground.
Retired Fire Behavior Analyst for the US Forest Service
Fire Behavior Domain Expert
Meteorologist in the Navy

Doug was bothered by the burnover accidents and deaths of fellow firefighters, so he:
Researched the “intuition” of successful firefighters
Studied Countryman’s research papers on the fire environment
Quantified his discoveries and insights in the Campbell Prediction System (CPS)

The Campbell Prediction System is:
A language for communicating fire behavior.
A “boots on the ground” logic model for predicting when and where fire behavior will change.

Additional info:
Tenets of CPS include:
Learn from the Past—Predict the Future
Predict CHANGES! When and where fire behavior will change
Fire behavior observations and replications
Fuel Flammability Curves
Trigger points
Alignment of Forces Concept
In alignment/out of alignment
Effects of Solar Preheating
Exacerbates fire behavior

In 1972, aeronautical engineer Richard C. Rothermel, of the USDA Fire Sciences Lab at Missoula, Montana, developed a method for modeling the spread of wildfire. This equation is the backbone of many fire modeling systems,
including BehavePlus and FARSITE
and the now Wildfire Management Tool

Additional Info:
In the Rothermel equation, ROS is directly proportional to the propagation intensity
and increases with increases in wind and slope (see the numerator). ROS is
inversely proportional to the amount of energy required to ignite fuels (the
denominator).

One of the key points about Rothermel’s fire spread equation is that the rate of
spread is a ratio between energy absorbed prior to ignition and the energy produced
by burning. So, fire rate of spread is strongly influenced by the intrinsic fuel
properties and by the fire environment.

In this model, fire spread is considered to be from one point to the next. A fire will
spread if there is sufficient heat to preheat and ignite the next piece of fuel.

This equation predicts the ROS at the head of the fire only.
The numerator in this equation deals with the exothermic portion of the reaction (the
heat source), while the denominator deals with the endothermic portion of the
reaction (the heat sink).
Input Variables:
IR is the reaction intensity
ξ is the propagating flux ratio
Φw is the wind coefficient
Φs is the slope factor
Ρb is the oven-dry fuel bed bulk density
ε is the effective heating number
Qig is the heat of preignition

Source: FOR 434
Fire Behavior Basics
Chad Hoffman
University of Idaho

To be safe, firefighters must be able to predict the fire behavior in the areas that they are deployed.

“Fire behavior is defined as the manner in which
fuel ignites,
flame develops,
fire spreads and exhibits other related phenomena
as determined by the interaction of fuels, weather, and topography (i.e., the fire environment).”
(Alexander 2006)

Fuels:
Fuels are the light fuels (dead ¼” fuels) that carry the flaming front of the fire.
The light fuels can react to a changing environment within 1 hour.
Weather:
In the weather, wind is the dominate force
Wind preheats the fuels in front of it through radiation and convection.
Topography:
In the topography, the steepness of slope affects fire behavior in a manner similar to wind
preheating the upslope fuels
In the absence of wind, slope can be a dominant force.

The Wildfire Management Tool software provides you with an understanding of these relationships via Fire Lookouts.

Fire Lookouts are spatiotemporal markers you drop on to the globe. A Fire Lookout downloads a point weather forecast for its location and computes the fire behavior from the weather, terrain, solar radiation and a fuel model. The Fire Lookout displays fire behavior data using the new Wildfire Diamond symbology.

Fire Lookouts are dynamic. Advancing the application time with the time slider allows you to view the expected fire behavior in the future. When you move a Fire Lookout it triggers a new computation the fire behavior and it updates the symbology accordingly. Fire Lookouts are designed to alert the user when a significant change is detected in the future fire behavior. This lookout mechanism takes place behind the scenes alerts the user via visual cues.

Wildfire perimeters have four parts:
Head
Left and right flanks
Heal

Note: Solar azimuth and aspect are coincident: the terrain at the crosshairs is receiving maximum solar radiation.

WMT computes the aspect and slope using the WWW Globe and the EarthElevationModel objects.
At the reticule (crosshairs)
At each Fire Lookout location

WMT uses usgs.landfire.gov for:
REST services provide the fuel model for a specific location, e.g. for a Fire Lookout
WMS used to display the FBFM13 (Original 13) fuel models.

Flame inclines towards the fuel
Also note that winds cool the fuel

Show inclinometer
Show wildfire diamond

Show sun plot
Show sky cover
Show variation

Architectural Views
Deployment View
wmt-web-1.0 is a JavaScript and HTML5 web application
wmt-rest is a Java 8 REST server application
Use Case View
High-level use cases

Wildfire Management Tool - Using NASA Web World Wind to Predict Wildfire Behavior

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Wildfire Management Tool - Using NASA Web World Wind to Predict Wildfire Behavior

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