This document summarizes and critiques arguments for why Silicon Valley will never succeed by using Estonia as a comparison point. It notes that solely using criteria where the US excels will make all other places seem inferior unfairly. While Estonia has advantages like widespread digital signing and internet banking, the document concludes that it's impossible to predict if any major emerging technologies will actually come from Estonia due to unknown future advantages.

1. Image credit: Benjamin Joffe

2. This is all true, BUT...
● The reason Singapore emerged was not due to
its low marks in preceding slide
● It was due to factors NOT MENTIONED above
● If you only use criteria where US excels at,
clearly all other places will get low marks
because nothing is as similar to US as US itself
● So let's use Estonia as reference point, and
pretend we don't know the Valley is successful

3. Why Silicon Valley will never succeed
● No widespread digital signing of documents; in
Estonia you need just Internet and 60 seconds to
sign a legally binding multiparty document. In US,
you actually need to scan or fax papers...
● Seed, Series A etc legal costs 10x higher – hard to
see why any investors would want to operate in the
Valley at all
● Some Americans still use checks to transfer money
– what a technologically backward country! In
Estonia EVERYONE uses internet banking, incl
grandmothers

4. Wait, there's more...
● The US is not used to disruption – e.g. no major
political change in the last 300 years. Estonia
has had no stability to get used to
● Little international cooperation: Americans
speak just one language – hard to build any
globally appealing stuff there

5. So IF anything major emerges in Estonia in
the next 30 years, it is because of some
overlooked advantages. Right now, nobody
can even predict what these would be. Not
even Estonians themselves can.