Whitepaper on cars

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29.10.2012
THIS IS A FULL6BERLIN WHITE PAPER à

IS THERE A FUTURE FOR TODAY’S
AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY?
// INTRODUCTION

There are currently a lot of things going on that have a strong impact on the
automotive industry. With this paper, we would like to develop a vision where this
could lead. It isn’t a scientific study but rather a responsible look at social
developments, trends and cases. Fact is that we have seen other industries change
completely – music, books, photography. And we have seen those players die that
didn’t adapt in time. So we asked ourselves:

à What do car manufacturers have to prepare for
in order to live a long and healthy life?

// NEW SOCIAL PARADIGMS

Multiple Insights
Buying a car involves a highly complex decision-making process – selling one is an
art. For starters, there is the issue of increasingly segmented target groups. There
are no longer clearly defined, large clusters of people with similar needs and
desires who can be addressed with one general brand message, no single insight
that is true for “the majority”, not two consumer profiles that are identical. A recent
university graduate, an established business man with a passion for dogs and water
sports, a young family and an elderly couple with an allotment garden at the other
end of town – they all have to be able to see the same car brand from their
particular angle or be able to buy a brand tailored to their needs. And in order to
be heard (even better: met) you should know whereto go (see: New Content for
New Channels).

In marketing communication the digital revolution has led to a personalized
approach – with websites changing according to the visitor profile, advertising
adapting to the time of day, the weather and the websites visited before. FullSIX is
a pioneer in transferring this digital obviousness to the traditional world of
communication, e.g. by producing 12 TV spots and tracking via Google search
volumes which one is performing best. Remember:

à Don’t treat people as if they were all the same,
because they aren’t.

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29.10.2012

New Content for New Channels
Then there is the never stopping growth of new communication channels that all
have to be fed with new, suitable content – suitable for the channel itself and for
multiple-insight driven consumers.

Expensively produced brand videos on the car manufacturers’ own websites may
no longer make for the most compelling viewing. Instead, it could be user-
generated videos on a brand’s own YouTube channel that provide the most
relevant, engaging and credible communication material. Car brands are obviously
amongst the ones that rely most on perfectly shot films fresh from Cape Town –
driving fast and straight into the emotional brain center of their target groups. But
this is not enough any more – looking at the high number of consumer videos on
YouTube and their visits and shares.

à Car brands have to rethink the shiny, perfect world
they live in to serve modern media and consumers
better.
Sustainability
To save our planet, sustainability must make its way into the right brain sections of
car manufacturers – who seem to be stuck somewhere between seemingly
contradictory trends and expectations (see: Multiple Insights), unclear
governmental decisions and lost consumers. Honestly, if we weren’t talking money
here, all cars would have to be green now – not tomorrow, not in 5 minutes. Now!
But even people haven’t made their minds up yet – something that becomes
obvious when considering the contradictive trend towards ever more powerful
engines. So, how can a car brand position itself as sporty and environmentally
active?

Let’s face it: Sustainability is here to stay and to save our planet and our lives. But
instead of it becoming the one and only important subject it has become a kind of
“hygiene factor”: a box that every car manufacturer must tick. Not more – and
certainly not less. This has been proven by the FullSIX study “Green Commitment in
Germany” (http://greencommitment.fullsix.com): People DO have expectations
about brands’ commitment to the environment, and they DO check if green
marketing statements are true (see: New Content for New Channels).

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And then there are the brands that really have things to say about sustainability,
but that don’t put enough effort into developing a sustainability communications
strategy – keeping the important arguments in the garage instead of shouting
them out loud and clear.

à Really, sustainability will be the key driver of future
trends. (See below)

// RESULTS

Short Term Reaction
One self-evident reaction towards these trends amongst car manufacturers is the
launch of a growing number of car models – tailored to the specific needs of
increasingly segmented target groups. This way, entirely new car segments are
born – the latest example being that of the Micro SUV or (a little earlier) the hybrid
car.

Part of a Bigger Development
We think, however, that there is a much bigger development taking place – one
that raises bigger questions. Questions that some car manufacturers are already
partly addressing – that must, however, be viewed and approached as part of a
larger picture of the automotive industry and of society as a whole.

à Really, this is not going to be about selling cars.
The following pages outline our view on the acceleration of change within the
automotive sector.

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// THE BIG PICTURE

Thesis 1:
Dealerships will be showrooms, and cars will
be sold online.
eCommerce is today the fastest growing commerce and changing every single
retail area: Amazon, ebay and iTunes are revolutionists of our times – and that goes
from generalists to specialists, from groceries to… cars! Yes, we do see many car
brands experimenting with eCommerce and some even with fCommerce
(Facebook Commerce) – but let’s stay realistic: No car manufacturer is seriously
considering to sell exclusively online any time soon. Still, this IS what will happen.

And wouldn’t it be great for the manufacturers? No more hassle with unfaithful and
ungrateful dealers! Just big, branded image temples (e.g. VW Autostadt) or
sponsored carsharing models (see: Thesis 2) that create unforgettable experiences
– while the purchase itself takes place online (i.e. the anti-ROPO model: Research
Offline and Purchase Online).

Of course, the internet will then be the place where car brands have to fight their
way around new competition, e.g. neutral eCommerce platforms such as
Autohaus24 or MeinAuto.de that sell several brands at discounts of up to 40%.
That in combination with the power of user generated YouTube videos and the
fact that people would rather buy a car for its iPhone connectivity than for an
additional 10hp will certainly not make life without a dealer network easier.

à Cars will not be for sale where they are sold today.
They will not be sold in the same way. And the
competition will be harder to grasp.

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Thesis 2:
People no longer buy cars – they rent them.
Owning is out – sharing is in. People start to share the big and expensive things in
their lives – apartments and cars. In Berlin you can already clearly see it on the
streets: The rate of car-owning families there is decreasing constantly.

Hence the growing success of carsharing ventures: Free-floating or with fixed pick-
up and drop-off stations; people’s own cars that they don’t need at certain times;
or a free car in front of your door if you agree to be its “manager”, provide a legal
parking space and are willing to share it with others.

Everything is currently being tried out – with two consequences:

1) Everyone can find a model that suits him best – there is really no reason to
own a car yourself any more.

2) The choice of a carsharing company/model already starts to become an
image factor for people: Do I go with the Minis by DriveNow that count for
the coolest cars and the most clever iPhone application in town? Or do I
dare to drive around with a pink Citroen for MultiCity?

Our question for car manufacturers:
à Will car brands not sell cars to individuals any more
but rather to carsharing companies?

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Thesis 3:
People no longer drive – they are driven.
Again, with a look to Berlin (of course, big urban spaces are at the forefront of
change) we can see that the number of people getting their driver’s license is also
decreasing. Why is that?

A mix of walking, bicycles, rickshaws, public transportation, taxis, trains and
airplanes allows people to say: “I don’t need to drive myself”. In combination with
carsharing this leads to new mobility concepts today – that might work completely
without one person being responsible for driving in the future. But who will be
doing the driving then?

Well, consider the Google car in California: Having passed its driver’s license it’s
driving around with fewer errors than any human and hasn’t had a single accident
to date.

In modern cars technology is already slowly taking over: The car makes sure that
we keep the right distance and within the lane; it breaks on its own when we get
too close – or it parks if we’re too lazy. Assistance systems are everywhere. Sounds
like another small step before we are where the Google car is today.

Of course this raises the question:
à How do we still allow ourselves to drive if we know
that it would be safer to be driven?

And it leads us to this vision:
à New mobility brands will completely remodel the
current automotive industry and the concept of owning
and actively driving a vehicle.

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// SUMMARY

Thesis 1: Showrooming and eCommerce
… is something that is starting right now. Every car brand will gather learnings and
slowly extend its online offer – to solve dealer issues and to gain shares in the
growing online commerce.

Thesis 2: Carsharing
… is taking off now in urban areas – but is still at the very beginning and highly
experimental. But this is a good thing: Different players are slowly gathering
learnings and will soon find out what the best mechanism is and how to optimize
their offer. So that anyone and everyone can leave the possession model behind.

Thesis 3: Mobility Brands Drive Us
… is the future – but certainly one that we should prepare for.

Sustainability is the one social trend that is most responsible for people to start
sharing instead of owning and to get into alternative mobility concepts rather than
to drive themselves.

à Sustainability will be the main reason for a quick
acceleration towards the future (see: Thesis 3)

FINAL QUESTION:
HOW CAN THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY KEEP UP WITH THE ACCELERATION OF THIS
DEVELOPMENT?

The answer is easy – which makes it so complicated: Car m anufacturers can’t
keep up w ith the speed of this develo pm ent if they try to stay what they are
today.

What is needed is a management that openly helps its company to create a vision
for a future that is so different from the present that you wouldn’t recognize the
company anymore.

THE ONLY WAY OUT à

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//RESET
The current TrendWatch Report #16 by FullSIX Group tackles the question of
“resetting” a company. In order to avoid burnouts, as seen in the music or
photography industries, brands in every sector have to come to the point where
they ask themselves what their role is in this world and how they can continue to
fulfill this role – if necessary even with a different product or service: e.g. a sharable
mp3 file instead of a unique record; a digital camera, instead of a film based model,
etc.

And there are many examples of companies that have successfully done so: that
have managed a turnaround and saved their company from failing by questioning
their role towards consumers and by addressing their product, marketing,
distribution and entire organization. Here are three outstanding examples:

What am I?

Nike
A couple of years ago, Nike didn’t ask Apple for a joint venture to build Nike+ in an
equal, long-lasting partnership but in order to learn from Apple on how to become
a technology company.

Nike todays doesn’t see itself as the shoemaker anymore that they used to be.
Instead, Nike is on its way to become a major technology company that develops
and offers products and services around sports that allow people to be connected
and improve their fitness.

Red Bull
In a recent, very rare interview with the Red Bull founder, Mr. Mateschitz said that
an energy drink was “a Zeitgeist thing” with a short lifetime. That’s the reason why
he’s been building Red Bull Media House for a while now – creating a parallel and
increasingly important part of his business.

We all have to acknowledge that Red Bull today is a media company – creating
incredible experiences, events, films and platforms that “give people wings”. And
they are doing it better than anyone else in this specialty. Another thing Mr.
Mateschitz recently said was this: “We don’t only take a suitcase full of money and
buy the mud wing of a racing car so we can put our logo on it. We have our own
racing team – we take responsibility!”

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Burberry
A highly astonishing example is Burberry. Astonishing because the luxury fashion
industry has so far not been famous for embracing change but rather for a strong
belief in the heritage of the brand and its head designer. Everyone but Burberry.

Angela Ahrends, CEO of Burberry, has very eloquently made it very clear in various
speeches that Burberry has understood that consumers have changed the world of
brands and media. They are the first fashion brand when it comes to the
integration of eCommerce and brick and mortar shops or showing fashion shows
on Mobile first.

Burberry for her is a social company. She has made that strategy very clear – and
that’s how Burberry stands out today.

From Sports to Technology (Nike). From Energy Drink to Media (Red Bull). From
Luxury Fashion to Social Company (Burberry). The questions that remains to be
answered:
à What will carmakers decide to be, when their world
changes?

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// SCENARIO

We can easily imagine the following scenario:

A mobility provider of the future listens to me carefully. He wants to know all about
my mobility requirements, wishes and movements:

I have to be at work every morning at 08:30.
At night, I will not leave office before 17:00 – but sometimes I don’t go back
straight home but meet some friends or visit my parents instead.
At the weekend I drive to the lake in summer or to the forest in winter. Sometimes I
take my bike.
Saturday night I go out. Can be late. Or really early ;-) I never really know in
advance …

The mobility provider that I am using always puts the most appropriate solution for
my mobility issue in front of me. Via an application that reminds me when I have to
leave my home or the office. It automatically buys the cheapest possible bus ticket
at the time when I am taking one, stays flexible when I’m running late. It books
rental cars, drivers and rental cars automatically. It even informs the people I’m
planning to see about when and where I will arrive. No interruptions, no traffic jams,
no ticket vending machines, no possession.

à Could you imagine companies like VW or BMW
going from “Drive us!” to “We drive you!” ?

More about FullSIX:

www.facebook.com/F6Berlin FullSIX GmbH
www.group.fullsix.com Heinrich-Roller-Str. 16b
www.slideshare.net/fullsixberlin 10405 Berlin
hallo@fullsix.de Germany

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