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Klaus R. Kunzmann Potsdam, Professor em. TU Dortmund/Germany
Sailing ahead
Which Future for European Space?
Closing lecture of Lower Silesia Festival of Architecture 2015 “City Flows”.
Wroclaw, Museum of Architecture, 9. October 2015
.
Outline
•  Europe 2015
•  Challenges of European territorial development
•  Pathways into the future of European space
•  Scenarios, visions and narratives for Europe
•  A final comment
.
The Future of European Space
Europe 2015
Europe is in a crisis
•  Return of nationalism and militant regionalism and eroding solidarity
•  Increasing hegemonial dominance of the Anglo-American world of finances
•  Dependency on US based global information and communication power
•  Economic divide between global and local economies, between North and
South and East and Wes in Europe
•  Growing economic competition from China and other BRICSs
•  Demographic change >aging and clash of values between generations
•  Migration flows from Africa and the Middle East
•  Limited absorptive capacity and ailing competence of local, regional and
national governments to cope with EU regulation and information overload
. . . .and as a rule these changes cannot be tackled at the local or regional level of
planning and decision-making
• 
.
The Future of European Space
Challenges of European territorial development
•  Climate change
•  Continuous concentration of jobs and
population in metropolitan city regions
•  Economic, social and spatial polarisatio
at European, national, regional and urban tiers
•  Marginalisation of peripheral regions >maintaining public services
•  Structural change in old industrial regions
•  Preserving the cultural heritage
•  Maintaining the balanced urban system
•  Constraining the use of land to conserve resources
•  Protecting fragile border environments >East, Southeast and South
•  Industrialization of agriculture and decline of small scale farming
. . . . . .and all this in a climate of eroding European solidarity . . . .
.
The Future of European Space
Traditional Pathways into the Future of
European Space
Where to go?
•  Global Cities
•  Metroregions
•  Macro Region Development
•  Border regions
•  Cohesion Policy: A New ESDP?
•  TransEuropean Corridors >TENs
•  ESPON: Europe 2050
. .. though all this may not lead to a new Europe!
No Bananas or Shoes!
Europe is a Bunch of Grapes

 
 

. 

The Future of European Space
.
The Future of European Space
Global Cities
Paris and London, the only global cities (almost city states) in Europe
> Istanbul
•  Concentration of financial, economic, political power in Europe.
•  Most EU policies support directly or indirectly the development of the
two global cities to secure Europe’s competiveness in the world
•  Both cities compete for tourists, inward investment and the creative
class and cultural hegemony in Europe
• 
ww.mlit.go.jp/kokudokeikaku/international/spw/general/uk/images/
figure02_uk_b.jpgSource:
The Future of European Space
Towards a Europe of Metro Regions
Depending on local politics, leadership, corporate power, the civil society
and the creativity of grassroots movements cities promote development in
metropolitan regions following trendy urban development paradigms,
such as
•  Smart and intelligent
•  Sustainable or Eco or green
•  Creative
•  Knowledge
•  Inclusive
•  Cosmopolitan and liveable
•  Compact
•  Resilient or healthy > and many more
In fierce competition with other city regions in Europe and beyond,
striving to link to trans-european transport networks and expand their
territories to a dependant suburban and rural hinterland
. . continuously struggling between top-down and bottom-up decision-making
environments to balance social, economic, cultural and ecological objectives
.
The Future of European Space
Developing Border Regions
Cross-border policies and programmes of the EU aim to
•  Maintain peace on European
borders
•  Overcome national boundaries
and national ideologies
•  Encourage interregional
cooperation
•  Support usually much neglected
regions in the periphery of
nation-states
.
The Future of European Space
Macro Region Development
•  Promote the idea of an United Europe
•  Overcome national boundaries and national ideologies
•  Experiment cross-national regional development, encourage interregional
cooperation and converge national approaches to regional development
•  Experimnt in
• 
The Future of European Space
EU Cohesion Policy
Cohesion policy is a spatial policy,
aiming to promote regional
development across Europe
and influence sector policies to
be aware of their (unintended?)
territorial impacts > Budget: 2014-2020 >325 Mrd. €
What can EU cohesion policy achieve?
•  Bring hope, encourage local governments
•  Show action
•  Promote the European Idea
•  Distribute and redistribute financial resources
•  Transfer knowledge
•  Strengthen competences in regions
•  Set standards
•  Show pathways into the future
Quelle: DG Regio MEMO/13/1011 19/11/2013
.
The Future of European Space
TENs
• 
Developing the Trans-European Transport
Network is one of the EU responses to the
challenges mentioned above.
The aims are:
•  Strengthening global competitiveness of
Europe as a whole
•  Accelerating European cohesion
•  Linking Eastern Europe better to the West
•  Shortening travelling and transportation times
across Europe
•  Linking city regions in the periphery to the core
of Europe
•  Bypassing Germany, when transporting goods
from the Mediterranean to Scandinavia
•  Creating the territory of single internal market,
•  In the end the TEN aims to deepen the
European Union
.
The Future of European Space
ESPON: Europe 2050
A scenario developed in the framework of ESPON research
Europe: open and polycentric
• 
.
The Future of European Space
More Pathways into the Future of European
Space
….the above visions for Europe may not
address all problems of the continent….
What about other pathways?
•  Europe: Cultural Theme Park of the World
•  Europe: A Pastoral Continent
•  Europe: School of the World
•  Europe: A Smart Continent
•  Europe: Silicon Archipelago
•  Europe: China’s Special Economic Zone
•  Europe: Backwater of the North African Industrial Belt
Europe: Theme Park of the World
. . . the old Europe scenario
Klaus R. Kunzmann
•  The urban and cultural heritage of Europe’s cities and regions is
seen as the key territorial potential for urban and regional economic
development;
•  Conservation of the urban and heritage is a key concern of city
development, Local and regional economies are linked to culture and
heritage; 
•  Humanities, cultural sciences, the preservation of the heritage and
tourism receive high priority in higher education and research;
•  From Venice to Tuscany, from Skane to Brandenburg, from Scotland
to Sardinia, from Aix-en-Provence to the Massive Central, from
Salamanca to Canary Islands, Europe becomes a second and third
home continent for the affluent middle and upper class of Asia and
Russia,. 
•  Silence, learning and nature observation are the key assets of
European holiday regions; 
•  Mobility concepts are oriented to tourist target and second home
owners;
The Future of European Space
.
TENs and the Future of European Space
A European Territorial Development Strategy
Can it make an impact?
Given the importance of EU corridors and the related transport infrastructure for
territorial cohesion at a transnational level, a common regulative
framework should be implemented in order to provide a homogenous
background against which to operate. The concept of an integrated
European territorial development strategy would enable local and
regional decision-makers to refer to the European dimension during
national discussions and to have a clear, communicable perspective
on their level of intervention. (Recommendation VII of the paper)
Better not!
1.  There is no willingness at EU level (and at most national tiers) to produce a
follow-up project to the ESDP, which had not much political impact in the
member countries of the EU
2.  An integrated European territorial development strategy would not address the
challenges of the TENs and hardly solve the impacts
3.  A common regulative framework (law) would centralize even more power in
Brussels and be against the interests of the regions and the people
4.  National governments should rather be given advice and guidelines how to
better cooperate with regions, affected by sector policies
Slow Europe: A Pastoral Continent
Klaus R. Kunzmann
•  Ecological objectives, low carbon principles and resource

 conservation determine regional policies;
•  Agriculture in all forms regains economic importance. 

Quality food is exported to all over the world .

 
Europe becomes the food basket of the Middle

 
East, North Africa and China;
•  Forests and nature parks are extended across Europe:
•  Traditional medicine and the cultivation of medical herbes

conquer the continent;
•  Integrated policies promote rural-urban economies and 

intra-regional economic circuits;
•  Principles of agro-tourismo prevail in tourism policies;
•  Endogenous development and slow city concepts conquers

strategic urban and regional policies; 
•  Individual mobility and interregional flows of goods gradually 

decline: 
. . . a desperate scenario?
The Future of European Space
Europe: School of the World

 
 
 
 
 
 . . . the mainstream scenario 
Klaus R. Kunzmann
•  Knowledge has been identified as the new
resource and
survival strategy of Europe in the Asian century;
• National governments double the expenses for
higher education and research;
• By profiling their local knowledge-scapes and
creating urban environments for learning and living,
sports and entertainment, European cities promote
the evolution of a complex system of knowledge
industries;
• European universities market their institutions as
centers of advanced higher education and
innovative training. They aim to become favorite
targets of students and researchers from all over
the world;
The Future of European Space
Europe: A Smart Continent
The corporate Europe
Klaus R. Kunzmann
•  Many cities promote smart-city concepts, promoted

 by Siemens, IMB , Cisco and others:
•  Better Mobility management, energy reduction and

public transport information contribute to achieve

the compact green city 
•  Smart technologies enable rural regions to survive,

enabling people in low density regions to have

convenient access to public services, such as

welfare, health, education and public transport;
•  Smart logistics optimize freight transport and

accommodate growing use of e-shopping;
•  City centers are gradually transforming into

consumption fairs and museums for e-shoppers;
•  City tourists are guided (and seduced) by new

information technologies 
The Future of European Space
Europe: The Silicon Archipelago
Europe is lagging behind the US and China, when it comes to
innovative entrepreneurship
The Greek archipelago would be a perfect location for the
innovative European creative class
Supported by a huge Marshall plan of the EU, programmes are
developed to attract young entrepreneurs from around the
world to to start up ITC businesses on the islands
A new university of the archipelago will be the hub of innovative
global work and life balances
Within two decades the archipelago of Greece will become the
most advanced Region of Europe, It competes successfully
with California and Chinese HighTech regions
The Future of European Space
Europe: China’s special economic zone 
. . . not an unlikely scenario!
Klaus R. Kunzmann
• Special (free) zones for Chinese investment are developed in
areas, with high unemployment and easy access to
China, > Hamburg, Naples, Parchim
• Chinese low cost production zones in in Europe and North
Africa Prato, Naples, Sicily; Romania, or Egypt
• Growing Chinese investment in high tech enterprises
> Mechanical engineering, environmental technology,
• Chinese/European automobiles are assembled in Europe’s
car factories >Volvo, Opel, Fiat, Peugeot
• Development of Chinese technology and science parks in
partnership with European cities and universities
• China has a considerable stake in European agriculture and
food industries
• Next generation high-speed trains in Europe are built by
Chinese corporations
•  Chinese architects are invited to design flagship projects
The Future of European Space
Europe 
Backwater of the North African Industrial Belt

 
 
 
 
 
 
 . . the unlikely Arab spring scenario
Klaus R. Kunzmann
•  The Arab spring has triggered-off a rethinking
of European development and migration policies;
• In cooperation with China a Mediterranean Marshall plan will be initiated by
Turkey, Israel and Spain to develop North Africa as a European-African
integration zone top provide jobs, education and training for young
Arabs and Africans;
• Following the model of China, free economic zones are established in the region,
with good accessibility to port facilities;
• Modern Infrastructure is built , technical universities ,
schools and technology parks will be established to
meet the requirements of the Sub Sahara Africa;
• Energy produced in the Sahara is used for building
up industries and technology parks dedicated to
the development of solar energy and the provision
of drinking water; 
•  
The Future of European Space
.
1
Klaus R. Kunzmann
Sailing Ahead: Which Future for Europe?
Once a peace project, now a survival strategy!
The Future of European Space

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Which Future for European Space?

  • 1. Klaus R. Kunzmann Potsdam, Professor em. TU Dortmund/Germany Sailing ahead Which Future for European Space? Closing lecture of Lower Silesia Festival of Architecture 2015 “City Flows”. Wroclaw, Museum of Architecture, 9. October 2015 . Outline •  Europe 2015 •  Challenges of European territorial development •  Pathways into the future of European space •  Scenarios, visions and narratives for Europe •  A final comment . The Future of European Space Europe 2015 Europe is in a crisis •  Return of nationalism and militant regionalism and eroding solidarity •  Increasing hegemonial dominance of the Anglo-American world of finances •  Dependency on US based global information and communication power •  Economic divide between global and local economies, between North and South and East and Wes in Europe •  Growing economic competition from China and other BRICSs •  Demographic change >aging and clash of values between generations •  Migration flows from Africa and the Middle East •  Limited absorptive capacity and ailing competence of local, regional and national governments to cope with EU regulation and information overload . . . .and as a rule these changes cannot be tackled at the local or regional level of planning and decision-making • 
  • 2. . The Future of European Space Challenges of European territorial development •  Climate change •  Continuous concentration of jobs and population in metropolitan city regions •  Economic, social and spatial polarisatio at European, national, regional and urban tiers •  Marginalisation of peripheral regions >maintaining public services •  Structural change in old industrial regions •  Preserving the cultural heritage •  Maintaining the balanced urban system •  Constraining the use of land to conserve resources •  Protecting fragile border environments >East, Southeast and South •  Industrialization of agriculture and decline of small scale farming . . . . . .and all this in a climate of eroding European solidarity . . . . . The Future of European Space Traditional Pathways into the Future of European Space Where to go? •  Global Cities •  Metroregions •  Macro Region Development •  Border regions •  Cohesion Policy: A New ESDP? •  TransEuropean Corridors >TENs •  ESPON: Europe 2050 . .. though all this may not lead to a new Europe!
  • 3. No Bananas or Shoes! Europe is a Bunch of Grapes . The Future of European Space . The Future of European Space Global Cities Paris and London, the only global cities (almost city states) in Europe > Istanbul •  Concentration of financial, economic, political power in Europe. •  Most EU policies support directly or indirectly the development of the two global cities to secure Europe’s competiveness in the world •  Both cities compete for tourists, inward investment and the creative class and cultural hegemony in Europe •  ww.mlit.go.jp/kokudokeikaku/international/spw/general/uk/images/ figure02_uk_b.jpgSource:
  • 4. The Future of European Space Towards a Europe of Metro Regions Depending on local politics, leadership, corporate power, the civil society and the creativity of grassroots movements cities promote development in metropolitan regions following trendy urban development paradigms, such as •  Smart and intelligent •  Sustainable or Eco or green •  Creative •  Knowledge •  Inclusive •  Cosmopolitan and liveable •  Compact •  Resilient or healthy > and many more In fierce competition with other city regions in Europe and beyond, striving to link to trans-european transport networks and expand their territories to a dependant suburban and rural hinterland . . continuously struggling between top-down and bottom-up decision-making environments to balance social, economic, cultural and ecological objectives . The Future of European Space Developing Border Regions Cross-border policies and programmes of the EU aim to •  Maintain peace on European borders •  Overcome national boundaries and national ideologies •  Encourage interregional cooperation •  Support usually much neglected regions in the periphery of nation-states
  • 5. . The Future of European Space Macro Region Development •  Promote the idea of an United Europe •  Overcome national boundaries and national ideologies •  Experiment cross-national regional development, encourage interregional cooperation and converge national approaches to regional development •  Experimnt in •  The Future of European Space EU Cohesion Policy Cohesion policy is a spatial policy, aiming to promote regional development across Europe and influence sector policies to be aware of their (unintended?) territorial impacts > Budget: 2014-2020 >325 Mrd. € What can EU cohesion policy achieve? •  Bring hope, encourage local governments •  Show action •  Promote the European Idea •  Distribute and redistribute financial resources •  Transfer knowledge •  Strengthen competences in regions •  Set standards •  Show pathways into the future Quelle: DG Regio MEMO/13/1011 19/11/2013
  • 6. . The Future of European Space TENs •  Developing the Trans-European Transport Network is one of the EU responses to the challenges mentioned above. The aims are: •  Strengthening global competitiveness of Europe as a whole •  Accelerating European cohesion •  Linking Eastern Europe better to the West •  Shortening travelling and transportation times across Europe •  Linking city regions in the periphery to the core of Europe •  Bypassing Germany, when transporting goods from the Mediterranean to Scandinavia •  Creating the territory of single internal market, •  In the end the TEN aims to deepen the European Union . The Future of European Space ESPON: Europe 2050 A scenario developed in the framework of ESPON research Europe: open and polycentric • 
  • 7. . The Future of European Space More Pathways into the Future of European Space ….the above visions for Europe may not address all problems of the continent…. What about other pathways? •  Europe: Cultural Theme Park of the World •  Europe: A Pastoral Continent •  Europe: School of the World •  Europe: A Smart Continent •  Europe: Silicon Archipelago •  Europe: China’s Special Economic Zone •  Europe: Backwater of the North African Industrial Belt Europe: Theme Park of the World . . . the old Europe scenario Klaus R. Kunzmann •  The urban and cultural heritage of Europe’s cities and regions is seen as the key territorial potential for urban and regional economic development; •  Conservation of the urban and heritage is a key concern of city development, Local and regional economies are linked to culture and heritage; •  Humanities, cultural sciences, the preservation of the heritage and tourism receive high priority in higher education and research; •  From Venice to Tuscany, from Skane to Brandenburg, from Scotland to Sardinia, from Aix-en-Provence to the Massive Central, from Salamanca to Canary Islands, Europe becomes a second and third home continent for the affluent middle and upper class of Asia and Russia,. •  Silence, learning and nature observation are the key assets of European holiday regions; •  Mobility concepts are oriented to tourist target and second home owners; The Future of European Space
  • 8. . TENs and the Future of European Space A European Territorial Development Strategy Can it make an impact? Given the importance of EU corridors and the related transport infrastructure for territorial cohesion at a transnational level, a common regulative framework should be implemented in order to provide a homogenous background against which to operate. The concept of an integrated European territorial development strategy would enable local and regional decision-makers to refer to the European dimension during national discussions and to have a clear, communicable perspective on their level of intervention. (Recommendation VII of the paper) Better not! 1.  There is no willingness at EU level (and at most national tiers) to produce a follow-up project to the ESDP, which had not much political impact in the member countries of the EU 2.  An integrated European territorial development strategy would not address the challenges of the TENs and hardly solve the impacts 3.  A common regulative framework (law) would centralize even more power in Brussels and be against the interests of the regions and the people 4.  National governments should rather be given advice and guidelines how to better cooperate with regions, affected by sector policies Slow Europe: A Pastoral Continent Klaus R. Kunzmann •  Ecological objectives, low carbon principles and resource conservation determine regional policies; •  Agriculture in all forms regains economic importance. Quality food is exported to all over the world . Europe becomes the food basket of the Middle East, North Africa and China; •  Forests and nature parks are extended across Europe: •  Traditional medicine and the cultivation of medical herbes conquer the continent; •  Integrated policies promote rural-urban economies and intra-regional economic circuits; •  Principles of agro-tourismo prevail in tourism policies; •  Endogenous development and slow city concepts conquers strategic urban and regional policies; •  Individual mobility and interregional flows of goods gradually decline: . . . a desperate scenario? The Future of European Space
  • 9. Europe: School of the World . . . the mainstream scenario Klaus R. Kunzmann •  Knowledge has been identified as the new resource and survival strategy of Europe in the Asian century; • National governments double the expenses for higher education and research; • By profiling their local knowledge-scapes and creating urban environments for learning and living, sports and entertainment, European cities promote the evolution of a complex system of knowledge industries; • European universities market their institutions as centers of advanced higher education and innovative training. They aim to become favorite targets of students and researchers from all over the world; The Future of European Space Europe: A Smart Continent The corporate Europe Klaus R. Kunzmann •  Many cities promote smart-city concepts, promoted by Siemens, IMB , Cisco and others: •  Better Mobility management, energy reduction and public transport information contribute to achieve the compact green city •  Smart technologies enable rural regions to survive, enabling people in low density regions to have convenient access to public services, such as welfare, health, education and public transport; •  Smart logistics optimize freight transport and accommodate growing use of e-shopping; •  City centers are gradually transforming into consumption fairs and museums for e-shoppers; •  City tourists are guided (and seduced) by new information technologies The Future of European Space
  • 10. Europe: The Silicon Archipelago Europe is lagging behind the US and China, when it comes to innovative entrepreneurship The Greek archipelago would be a perfect location for the innovative European creative class Supported by a huge Marshall plan of the EU, programmes are developed to attract young entrepreneurs from around the world to to start up ITC businesses on the islands A new university of the archipelago will be the hub of innovative global work and life balances Within two decades the archipelago of Greece will become the most advanced Region of Europe, It competes successfully with California and Chinese HighTech regions The Future of European Space Europe: China’s special economic zone . . . not an unlikely scenario! Klaus R. Kunzmann • Special (free) zones for Chinese investment are developed in areas, with high unemployment and easy access to China, > Hamburg, Naples, Parchim • Chinese low cost production zones in in Europe and North Africa Prato, Naples, Sicily; Romania, or Egypt • Growing Chinese investment in high tech enterprises > Mechanical engineering, environmental technology, • Chinese/European automobiles are assembled in Europe’s car factories >Volvo, Opel, Fiat, Peugeot • Development of Chinese technology and science parks in partnership with European cities and universities • China has a considerable stake in European agriculture and food industries • Next generation high-speed trains in Europe are built by Chinese corporations •  Chinese architects are invited to design flagship projects The Future of European Space
  • 11. Europe Backwater of the North African Industrial Belt . . the unlikely Arab spring scenario Klaus R. Kunzmann •  The Arab spring has triggered-off a rethinking of European development and migration policies; • In cooperation with China a Mediterranean Marshall plan will be initiated by Turkey, Israel and Spain to develop North Africa as a European-African integration zone top provide jobs, education and training for young Arabs and Africans; • Following the model of China, free economic zones are established in the region, with good accessibility to port facilities; • Modern Infrastructure is built , technical universities , schools and technology parks will be established to meet the requirements of the Sub Sahara Africa; • Energy produced in the Sahara is used for building up industries and technology parks dedicated to the development of solar energy and the provision of drinking water; •  The Future of European Space . 1 Klaus R. Kunzmann Sailing Ahead: Which Future for Europe? Once a peace project, now a survival strategy! The Future of European Space