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weekly_Commodity_Report 13-17 Aug 2018
1. 13-17 August 2018
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E-mail: info@tradenivesh.in
13–17 Aug.2018
COMMODITY WEEKLY REPORT
3. 13-17 August 2018
FUNDAMENTAL VIEW:- Despite Softer Dollar Gold Prices Fall On Friday gold prices fell despite a softer dollar as investors assessed
the impact of the latest tit-for-tat in the trade war between the U.S. and China. The drop in gold was partly triggered by profit taking by
investors after two consecutive days of posting gains amid escalating trade tension between the U.S. and China. This is widely seen as a
winner in a U.S.-China trade war, The U.S. currency, was up about 0.6% overnight and traded near the 13-month high of 95.652. which is
expected to show inflation likely increased 0.2%, after rising 0.1% in June, Markets are looking ahead to the U.S. consumer price inflation
(CPI) report for July due later in the day.
TECHNICAL VIEW:- MCX Gold last week showed sideways movement and close around its important support level of 29450. For up-
coming week if it breached 29450 then we will continue to suggest the bearish wave up to next strong support i.e. 29000. On upward
side it has important resistance of 29800 and if price maintains above this level then it can push for quite recovery from lower levels up
to its next resistance of its upper key line i.e. 30200 and after breakout it may continue with upward trend.
GOLD (OCT.)
WEEKLY
R2 29977.50
R1 29871.00
Pivot 29708.50
S1 29602.00
S2 29439.50
WEEKLY
OPEN 29690
HIGH 29815
LOW 29546
CLOSE 29783
CHANGE -93
% CHANGE -0.31%
GOLD (OCT.) LEVEL TGT-1 TGT-2 STOP LOSS
BUY ON DIPS 29700 29900 30210 29450
SELL ON RISE 30300 30050 29850 30550
4. 13-17 August 2018
FUNDAMENTAL VIEW:- The strengthening dollar looks likely to remain a significant headwind for silver this week, ahead
of the Federal Reserve’s latest rate setting meeting, where it will probably lay the groundwork for its third rate hike this year in Septem-
ber. Friday’s U.S. employment report for July will also be closely watched, amid expectations that its will point to a slight slowdown in hir-
ing. Expectations for higher rates tend to be bearish for silver, which struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when rates rise, while
a stronger U.S. currency makes gold and other dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for foreign investors .
TECHNICAL VIEW:- MCX Silver last week was range bounded and unable to close below its major support of 37700. For upcoming trad-
ing session if it breaks and holds below 37700 then price goes down side towards next support level of 37200 and if it takes quick recov-
ery from lower levels and breaks its upper trend line which is near by 38200 and after that this movement can take price up to next strong
resistance level of 38900 and trend may reversal from bearish to bullish
WEEKLY
R2 38418.75
R1 38239.50
Pivot 38006.75
S1 37827.50
S2 37594.75
WEEKLY
SILVER(SEP.) LEVEL TGT-1 TGT-2 STOP LOSS
BUY SILVER 37900 38600 39300 37900
SELLL ON RISE 39300 38600 37900 40200
SILVER (SEP.)
OPEN 38099
HIGH 38186
LOW 37774
CLOSE 37968
CHANGE 131
% CHANGE 0.34%
5. 13-17 August 2018
FUNDAMENTAL VIEW:- Crude Oil Falls as IEA Warns Against Looming Iran Sanctions On Friday crude oil prices fell on Friday,
as the International Energy Agency warned that the recent cooling in the market may not last. With short-term supply tensions easing, the
recent cooling down of the market, currently lower prices, and lower demand growth might not last, International Energy Agency warned
that upcoming oil sanctions against Iran could bring turmoil to the market later in the year. U.S. sanctions targeting Iranian oil is expected
in early November and could increase the potential of a global energy supply shortage. Including Europe, China and Russia, Many countries,
oppose the sanction, but the White House wants other countries to stop buying oil from Iran.
TECHNICAL VIEW:- MCX Crude oil last week showed sideways to bearish movement and close around its major support as well as its
lower key line of 4500. For upcoming session it may continue to decline to test 4500 levels and if it breaks this level then we will continue
to suggest down trend. On higher levels it has important resistance level of 4650 and above this level price can take some recovery and test
its next major resistance level of 4750 and after that it may continue with uptrend.
CRUDE OIL (AUG.)
WEEKLY
R2 4953.25
R1 4838.50
Pivot 4697.25
S1 4582.50
S2 4441.25
WEEKLY
OPEN 4747
HIGH 4812
LOW 4556
CLOSE 4674
CHANGE 73
% CHANGE 1.54%
CRUDE (AUG.) LEVEL TGT-1 TGT-2 STOP LOSS
BUY ON DIPS 4600 4700 4800 4450
SELL ON RISE 4890 4790 4690 4940
WEEKLY WEEKLY
6. 13-17 August 2018
FUNDAMENTAL VIEW:- Base metal Prices Mixed as Dollar Flirts With Session Highs On Friday base metal prices traded mixed Thurs-
day as dollar strength and lingering trade-war concerns kept a lid on gains. The state of negotiations between the China and U.S. are uncer-
tain, as it stands, and there is little indication that the conflict will be resolved quickly," BBVA said in notes to clients last week. Trader’s
fears about a possible slowdown in metal demand from China from its trade war with the U.S. continued to weigh on sentiment, in the wid-
er metals markets.
TECHNICAL VIEW:- MCX Copper last week showed down side movement after recovery and breached its major support level of 410. For
upcoming period it may declines for tests its major support level of 400 and after that bearish trend will continue. On upward side it has
strong resistance of 425 and if price maintains above this level then it can take some recovery and price may also goes upside up to next
important resistance level of 435 and after that 450 will be next resistance and trend may also change.
COPPER (AUG)
WEEKLY
R2 434.56
R1 426.43
Pivot 419.81
S1 411.68
S2 405.06
WEEKLY
OPEN 418.5
HIGH 427.95
LOW 413.2
CLOSE 419.6
CHANGE -1.1
% CHANGE -0.26%
COPPER (AUG) LEVEL TGT-1 TGT-2 STOP LOSS
BUY ON DIPS 417 427 437 402
SELL ON RISE 440 430 420 455
7. 13-17 August 2018
STATUS OF OUR LAST WEEK RECOMMENDATIONS ( 30 July-03 Aug.2018)
RECOMMENDATIONS PROFIT/LOSS STATUS
BUY GOLD ABOVE 29600 TGT 29800,3000 SL BELOW 29350 20000
1ST TGT ACHIEVED, HIGH
429815
SELL GOLD BELOW 30300 TGT 30050,29850 SL ABOVE-30550 0.00 NOT EXEUTED
BUY SILVER BY ABOVE 37900 TGT 38600,39300 SL BELOW 36900 69000 CLOSED@38130
SELL SILVER BELOW 39300 TGT 38600,37900 SL ABOVE 40200 0.00 NOT EXEUTED
BUY CRUDEOIL BUY ON DIPS 4600 TGT 4700,4780 SL BELOW 4450 0.00 NOT EXEUTED
CRUDEOIL SELL ON RISE 4890 TGT 4790,4690 SL ABOVE 4940 0.00 NOT EXEUTED
BUY COPPER BUY ON DIPS 415 TGT 425,435 SL BELOW 400 10000
1ST TGT ACHIEVED, HIGH
427.95
COPPER SELL ON RISE 445 TGT 435,425 SL ABOVE 460 0.00 NOT EXEUTED
TOTAL P&L 39000
8. 13-17 August 2018
ECONOMIC CALENDER
Time Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
Monday, August 13, 2018
16:50 USD OPEC Monthly Report
Tuesday, August 14, 2018
18:00 USD Export Price Index (MoM) (Jul) 0.30% 0.30%
18:00 USD Import Price Index (MoM) (Jul) 0.10% -0.40%
Wednesday, August 15, 2018
2:00 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock -6.000M
18:00 USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) 0.40% 0.40%
18:00 USD NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Aug) 21 22.6
18:00 USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) 0.30% 0.50%
18:45 USD Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul) 0.30% 0.60%
19:30 USD Business Inventories (MoM) (Jun) 0.10% 0.40%
20:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.351M
20:00 USD Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -0.590M
Thursday, August 16, 2018
18:00 USD Building Permits (MoM) (Jul) 1.40% -2.20%
18:00 USD Housing Starts (MoM) (Jul) 7.40% -12.30%
18:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug) 22 25.7
18:00 USD Philly Fed Employment (Aug) 16.8
Friday, August 17, 2018
19:30 USD Michigan Consumer Expectations (Aug) 87.3
19:30 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug) 98 97.9
22:30 USD U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
9. 13-17 August 2018
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