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1. 29th SEP.TO 4th OCT.’2014
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2. BULLION
Expectations of rising rates and a stronger dollar
continue to pressure gold. However, gold is still likely to
draw some support from the physical market during the
seasonally strong period for consumption, according to
a Barclays report.
As gold prices tumble towards intra-year lows, market
focus has shifted to the cost curve. “We estimate
marginal cash cost at $988/oz and the marginal all-in
sustaining costs were $1285/oz. On an all-in basis, 12%
of production is under water. ETP outflows on Friday
were the largest daily net redemption since April,” the
report said.
Several Fed speakers next week, including New York Fed
President Dudley (FOMC voter, Monday), will keep the
market’s focus on US monetary policy after last week’s
FOMC meeting. A revision higher in FOMC participant
forecasts of the Fed Funds rate provided further support
to the USD this week, building on the theme of
generally better-than-expected economic data and gains
in short-term interest rates that has seen the USD index
appreciate more than 5% since early July.
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3. ENERGY
“Production growth provides comfort to the market as we
head towards the end of October with relatively low storage
levels. This cushion provided by production growth has
allowed storage to build more quickly than in the past and
should remain a feature of the market for the foreseeable
future,” the report said.
The near-term weather forecast shows the end of
September will be warmer than expected; the prompt
contract rose 9c w/w, while calendar years 2015 and 2016
rose 6c and 3c, respectively. Overall, prices have remained
subdued versus the highs of last winter as overall weather
has been cool and storage injections have been stronger
than in years prior – the latter of which is largely expected
to continue.
In addition to the cool weather, growing production has
been critical to the strong injection season and has allowed
storage recover more quickly than in years prior. This
strength in production growth is set to continue as Q4 14
will see a chunky collection of pipeline and processing
capacity additions coming online in the Northeast.
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4. BASEMETAL
Nickel stocks at London Metal Exchange (LME) rose by
3174 tons to 347970 tons at London Metal Exchange (LME)
as per Friday data. Aluminium witnessed a massive fall in
stocks by 3150 tons while Copper stocks fell 1100 tons to
154500 tons. Lead, Zinc stocks recorded a decline by 50,
125 tons respectively.
Aluminium settled down -0.17% at 118.40 dropped after a
report showed demand for durable goods in August
tumbled by a record in the U.S., the world’s second-biggest
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consumer of the metal. LME Aluminum declined
1.2 percent to $1,950.50 a ton. The metal touched $1,950,
the lowest since July 15. New orders for capital goods by
U.S. businesses rebounded in August, pointing to
underlying strength in the economy. US durable goods
orders for August, published on Thursday, tumbled 18.2%
from July, the biggest monthly fall since records began in
1992, due in large part to a sharp fall in Boeing’s orders.
The price decline was due to the State Administration of
Foreign Exchange’s investigations into virtual re-export
trade, a firm US dollar and worse-than-expected US
August durable goods orders and Markit’s US flash
composite PMI for September. Technically market is under
long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open
interest by -6.38% to settled at 3096, now Aluminium is
getting support at 118 and below same could see a test of
117.6 level, and resistance is now likely to be seen at
118.8, a move above could see prices testing 119.2.

5. OUTLOOK:
GOLD (3 OCT.)
TREND : - CONSOLIDATE
RESISTANCE : - 27100, 27500
SUPPORT : - 26300, 25800
STRATEGY : - SELL ON HIGH
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6. OUTLOOK:
SILVER (5 DEC.)
TREND : - BEARISH
RESISTANCE : - 39900, 40500
SUPPORT : - 38700, 38000
STRATEGY : - SELL ON HIGH
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7. OUTLOOK:
CRUDEOIL (20 OCT.)
TREND : - CONSOLIDATE
RESISTANCE : - 5850, 5900
SUPPORT : - 5700, 5650
STRATEGY : - SELL ON HIGH
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8. OUTLOOK:
COPPER (28 NOV.)
TREND : - CONSOLIDATE
RESISTANCE : - 422.00, 430.00
SUPPORT : - 410.00, 404.00
STRATEGY : - SELL ON HIGH
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9. GOLD 1217.66
SILVER 17.617
COPPER 3.036
CRUDE OIL 93.39
NATURAL GAS 4.025
PALLADIUM 779.40
PLATINUM 1298.10
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USDINR 61.5900
EURUSD 01.2682
USDJPY 109.259
USDCHF 00.9512
GBPUSD 01.6242
USDCAD 01.1155

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14. SCRIPT R3 R2 R1 P S1 S2 S3
GOLD 28391 27569 27181 26747 26359 26925 25103
SILVER 41605 40433 39801s 39261 38629 38089 36917
CRUDEOIL 6165 5934 5854 5703 5623 5472 5241
COPPER 431 423 420 416.00 412 409 401
LEAD 133.00 129.70 128.20 126.30 124.90 123.00 119.60
ZINC 148.20 143.00 141.00 137.80 135.80 132.60 127.40
ALIMINUM 122.20 120.20 119.10 118.20 117.00 116.20 114.20
NICKEL 1152 1098 1066 1045 1013
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991 938
NATURAL GAS 278 260 254 243 237 225 208

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