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BULLION
Silver futures for May delivery on
India's Multi Commodity Exchange
(MCX) may trade bullish according to
our analyst and further buying is
expected only above 46000 level for
the day. Two major US data releases
are scheduled at 06.00 PM IST today
and may have high impact on bullion.
Barclays expect gold prices to recover
to an average $1,500/oz in Q4 13 but
given the weight of cash negative ETP
holdings, they believe downside risk
still exists in the near term, and
expects prices to average $1350/oz.
Continued ETP outflows remain a key
downside risk to prices in the near
term and are on track to mark a fresh
record high, surpassing the weakness
in February.
MARKET NEWS
ENERGY
According to pipeline data estimates,
natural gas production has recovered
in late April to above 65 Bcf/d and
Barclays in its recent market report,
expects production to average around
this level before dipping into declines
in the second half of the year.
For next Tuesday’s EIA-914
production report, Barclays expects a
moderate m/m growth for February’s
natural gas lower-48 production.
Furthermore, production should
continue to recover in March and
April, as well freeze offs slowly comes
back online.
Natural gas prices came off at the
front end of the curve, with the
prompt contract down 5% w/w, as
the weather forecast for the next 15
days turned milder.
BASE METAL
LME cash price forecast to$16,766/t
from $17,766/t and upgraded the
size of the surplus to 108Kt
from88Kt.
LME stocks have risen 33Kt year-to-
date, which particularly
demonstrates the oversupply in the
market ex-China, given that net
refined imports into China rose 36%
y/y in Q1 alone. Within China,
while it is difficult to ascertain
exact volumes and a breakdown
between
Private/SRB stockpiling, Barclays
believe as much as 25Kt of
inventory has built over the same
period given ongoing weakness in
the domestic stainless sector.
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