This document provides an overview and analysis of analyst recommendations, earnings estimates, and target prices for companies in Taiwan. Some key points:
- Analysts have not had very positive recommendations for Taiwan over the past year, and Taiwan has the most negative recommendations in Asia.
- PharmaEssentia's drug P1101 is expected to enter the market in 2017-2018 and drive earnings growth.
- Consensus earnings growth estimates for Taiwan have decreased since 2012 and are now at 7%, the lowest in the period analyzed.
- The expected return from target prices has turned from slightly negative in 2012-2014 to slightly positive since 2015. PharmaEssentia has the highest expected return.
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Analyst Recommendations and Earnings Estimates for Taiwan Markets
1. Presented by: Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA 16 August 2016
Watching the Street:
Taiwan
2. 28 July 2016 2
Companies with the most positive recommendations Companies with the most negative recommendations
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters
Note: For methodology explanation visit BecomeaBetterInvestor.net/blog/how-to-benefit-from-our-watching-the-street-charts/
Analysts haven’t had very positive recommendations
on Taiwan for the past year, and Taiwan has the most
negative recommendations in Asia
CPTT produces probe cards used in testing
semiconductor wafers. Since its IPO in January 2015
the share price has gained more than 7x
Even though mobile devices producer HTC’s share
price has lost more than 90% since its ATH in May 2011
analysts are negative and don’t expect a turnaround
Taiwan: Consensus recommendations
Consensus recommendations over 5 years
Company name RIC code Sector
Mcap
(US$m)
3MADTO
(US$m)
Chunghwa Precision Test
Tech (CPTT)
6510.TWO Info Tech 705 7.9
TTY Biopharm 4105.TWO Health Care 867 7.4
Taiwan Paiho 9938.TW Cons. Disc. 889 7.9
PharmaEssentia 6446.TWO Health Care 1,191 5.6
PharmaEngine 4162.TWO Health Care 804 6.1
Company name RIC code Sector
Mcap
(US$m)
3MADTO
(US$m)
HTC 2498.TW Info Tech 2,486 85.6
Acer 2353.TW Info Tech 1,498 9.1
Giant Manufacturing 9921.TW Cons. Disc. 2,580 4.0
Chang Hwa Commercial
Bank
2801.TW Financials 4,482 3.9
Hua Nan Financial Holdings 2880.TW Financials 5,405 4.5
Sell Sell
Neutral Neutral
Sell
1
3
5
7
9
1
3
5
7
9
2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD16
Taiwan
Buy
Sell
3. 28 July 2016 3
Highest consensus EPS growth estimates Lowest consensus EPS growth estimates
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters
Note: *Available 12 month forward EPS estimates. For methodology explanation visit BecomeaBetterInvestor.net/blog/how-to-benefit-from-our-watching-the-street-charts/
Consensus EPS growth estimates have decreased
since 2012 and actual EPS growth since 2013. The
estimate is now at 7%, the lowest in this period
PharmaEngine focuses on R&D of anticancer drugs.
Its drug ONIVYDE is expected to enter a high-growth
period as it starts to get approvals in US, EU and Asia
Innolux is the 3rd largest panel (LCD, OLED etc)
manufacturer in the world. Analysts expect the
company to post a loss in 2016 due to weak demand
Taiwan: Consensus earnings estimates
Consensus EPS growth estimates versus actual EPS growth
Company name RIC code Sector
Mcap
(US$m)
EPS g*
(%)
Motech Industries 6244.TWO Info Tech 522 308
PharmaEngine 4162.TWO Health Care 804 262
E Ink Holdings 8069.TWO Info Tech 645 231
Unimicron Technology 3037.TW Info Tech 678 216
Sino-American Silicon
Products
5483.TWO Info Tech 659 175
Company name RIC code Sector
Mcap
(US$m)
EPS g*
(%)
Innolux 3481.TW Info Tech 3,610 (152)
AU Optronics 2409.TW Info Tech 3,701 (138)
Wan Hai Lines 2615.TW Industrials 1,148 (36)
Taiwan Fertilizer 1722.TW Materials 1,359 (34)
Inotera Memories 3474.TW Info Tech 5,416 (27)
32 30
14 13
7
(20)
-
20
40
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Actual EPS growth Consensus' estimate - 1yr fwd
(%, YoY)
4. 28 July 2016 4
Highest consensus target price expected return Lowest consensus target price expected return
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters
Note: *Actual return from March 2016 to year-to-date. For methodology explanation visit BecomeaBetterInvestor.net/blog/how-to-benefit-from-our-watching-the-street-charts/
The target price expected return has turned from
slightly negative in 2012-2014 to become slightly
positive since 2015
PharmaEssentia’s drug P1101, used to treat
Polycythemia Vera, a rare blood disorder, is expected
to hit the market in 2017-2018 and drive earnings
All companies with lowest expected return are in
Info Tech. Keep in mind though that Info Tech accounts
for almost 50% of the total market cap in Taiwan
Taiwan: Consensus target price
Consensus target price expected return versus actual return
Company name RIC code Sector
Mcap
(US$m)
Up/Dn
(%)
PharmaEssentia 6446.TWO Health Care 1,191 67
Yeong Guan Energy
Technology Group
1589.TW Materials 626 42
Sercomm 5388.TW Info Tech 524 34
Neo Solar Power 3576.TW Info Tech 541 34
ScinoPharm Taiwan 1789.TW Health Care 1,009 32
Company name RIC code Sector
Mcap
(US$m)
Up/Dn
(%)
HTC 2498.TW Info Tech 2,486 (36)
Acer 2353.TW Info Tech 1,498 (26)
Wistron 3231.TW Info Tech 2,058 (24)
Nanya Technology 2408.TW Info Tech 3,317 (21)
eMemory Technology 3529.TWO Info Tech 739 (19)
(3) (3) (1)
3
5 4
(20)
(10)
-
10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* 12mth
fwdActual return Est upside
(%)
5. 6 May 201628 July 2016 5
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