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Presented by: Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA 21 August 2016
Watching the Street:
Hong Kong
28 July 2016 2
Companies with the most positive recommendations Companies with the most negative recommendations
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters
Note: For methodology explanation visit BecomeaBetterInvestor.net/blog/how-to-benefit-from-our-watching-the-street-charts/
Analysts are now Neutral on Hong Kong after 4 years
of rating the country a Buy in Asia
Yestar sells medical consumables and equipment in
China from global brands such as Fujifilm and Roche;
aiming to ride the wave of Chinese Health Care growth
China Huishan Dairy’s chairman and majority
shareholder Yang Kai borrowed money to buy back
shares in 2015, which caused the share price to double
in less than 3 months
Hong Kong: Consensus recommendations
Consensus recommendations over 5 years
Buy Buy
Buy Buy
Neutral
1
3
5
7
9
1
3
5
7
9
2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD16
Hong Kong
Buy
Sell
Company name RIC code Sector
Mcap
(US$m)
3MADTO
(US$m)
China Lesso Group 2128.HK Industrials 1,808 3.2
Yestar International 2393.HK Industrials 959 1.3
Canvest Environmental
Protection Group
1381.HK Utilities 955 1.8
Peak Sport Products 1968.HK Cons. Disc. 724 2.1
Yuexiu REIT 0405.HK Financials 1,705 2.6
Company name RIC code Sector
Mcap
(US$m)
3MADTO
(US$m)
China Huishan Dairy 6863.HK Cons. Staples 5,438 4.0
Esprit Holdings 0330.HK Cons. Disc. 1,582 1.9
Coolpad Group 2369.HK Info Tech 886 2.6
Hong Kong and China Gas 0003.HK Utilities 23,641 18.9
Sinofert Holdings 0297.HK Materials 851 1.0
28 July 2016 3
Highest consensus EPS growth estimates Lowest consensus EPS growth estimates
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters
Note: *Available 12 month forward EPS estimates. For methodology explanation visit BecomeaBetterInvestor.net/blog/how-to-benefit-from-our-watching-the-street-charts/
Analysts have expected single-digit growth for the
past 5 years. Estimates have been accurate when EPS
has grown, but not so much when it has fallen
Lenovo Group’s earnings are expected to rebound
from the loss in FY2016 as PC and smartphone
shipments have started to pick up
Analysts are expecting Coolpad to have a tougher
time in the mobile segment as shipments are falling
and a loss on the disposal of Coolpad e-Commerce
Hong Kong: Consensus earnings estimates
Consensus EPS growth estimates versus actual EPS growth
3 5 6
0
6
(20)
(10)
-
10
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Actual EPS growth Consensus' estimate - 1yr fwd
(%, YoY)
Company name RIC code Sector
Mcap
(US$m)
EPS g*
(%)
Li Ning 2331.HK Cons. Disc. 977 924
Lenovo Group 0992.HK Info Tech 7,347 851
Wisdom Sports Group 1661.HK Cons. Disc. 506 629
Melco Int’l Dev. 0200.HK Cons. Disc. 1,523 474
TCL Multimedia Technology 1070.HK Cons. Disc. 938 423
Company name RIC code Sector
Mcap
(US$m)
EPS g*
(%)
Harbin Electric 1133.HK Industrials 611 (114)
Shougang Fushan
Resources Group
0639.HK Materials 923 (97)
Coolpad Group 2369.HK Info Tech 886 (86)
CNOOC 0883.HK Energy 57,212 (83)
Yuexiu REIT 0405.HK Financials 1,705 (44)
28 July 2016 4
Highest consensus target price expected return Lowest consensus target price expected return
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters
Note: *Actual return from March 2016 to year-to-date. For methodology explanation visit BecomeaBetterInvestor.net/blog/how-to-benefit-from-our-watching-the-street-charts/
The target price expected return has been double-
digit year after year, despite single-digit or negative
actual return
Consensus expects a 13% upside 12 months forward
Wisdom Sports has a high expected upside, as the
share price has fallen more than 50% year-to-date
China Huishan Dairy is also the company with most
target price downside due to the price jump in 2015
Hong Kong: Consensus target price
Consensus target price expected return versus actual return
Company name RIC code Sector
Mcap
(US$m)
Up/Dn
(%)
Wisdom Sports Group 1661.HK Cons. Disc. 506 97
Sihuan Pharmaceutical
Holdings Group
0460.HK Health Care 2,498 94
Bloomage Biotechnology 0963.HK Materials 597 66
Global Brands Group 0787.HK Cons. Disc. 745 64
Shun Tak Holdings 0242.HK Industrials 981 63
Company name RIC code Sector
Mcap
(US$m)
Up/Dn
(%)
China Huishan Dairy 6863.HK Cons. Staples 5,438 (48)
Sa Sa International 0178.HK Cons. Disc. 1,275 (34)
Truly International 0732.HK Info Tech 1,522 (29)
HK Electric Investments 2638.HK Utilities 9,341 (28)
Great Eagle Holdings 0041.HK Financials 3,052 (25)
18
14
20
13
18
13
(20)
(10)
-
10
20
30
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* 12mth
fwdActual return Est upside
(%)
6 May 201628 July 2016 5
 Want more of our research?
 Sign up for our free newsletter at:
BecomeaBetterInvestor.net/join

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Watching The Street: Hong Kong

  • 1. Presented by: Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA 21 August 2016 Watching the Street: Hong Kong
  • 2. 28 July 2016 2 Companies with the most positive recommendations Companies with the most negative recommendations Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters Note: For methodology explanation visit BecomeaBetterInvestor.net/blog/how-to-benefit-from-our-watching-the-street-charts/ Analysts are now Neutral on Hong Kong after 4 years of rating the country a Buy in Asia Yestar sells medical consumables and equipment in China from global brands such as Fujifilm and Roche; aiming to ride the wave of Chinese Health Care growth China Huishan Dairy’s chairman and majority shareholder Yang Kai borrowed money to buy back shares in 2015, which caused the share price to double in less than 3 months Hong Kong: Consensus recommendations Consensus recommendations over 5 years Buy Buy Buy Buy Neutral 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD16 Hong Kong Buy Sell Company name RIC code Sector Mcap (US$m) 3MADTO (US$m) China Lesso Group 2128.HK Industrials 1,808 3.2 Yestar International 2393.HK Industrials 959 1.3 Canvest Environmental Protection Group 1381.HK Utilities 955 1.8 Peak Sport Products 1968.HK Cons. Disc. 724 2.1 Yuexiu REIT 0405.HK Financials 1,705 2.6 Company name RIC code Sector Mcap (US$m) 3MADTO (US$m) China Huishan Dairy 6863.HK Cons. Staples 5,438 4.0 Esprit Holdings 0330.HK Cons. Disc. 1,582 1.9 Coolpad Group 2369.HK Info Tech 886 2.6 Hong Kong and China Gas 0003.HK Utilities 23,641 18.9 Sinofert Holdings 0297.HK Materials 851 1.0
  • 3. 28 July 2016 3 Highest consensus EPS growth estimates Lowest consensus EPS growth estimates Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters Note: *Available 12 month forward EPS estimates. For methodology explanation visit BecomeaBetterInvestor.net/blog/how-to-benefit-from-our-watching-the-street-charts/ Analysts have expected single-digit growth for the past 5 years. Estimates have been accurate when EPS has grown, but not so much when it has fallen Lenovo Group’s earnings are expected to rebound from the loss in FY2016 as PC and smartphone shipments have started to pick up Analysts are expecting Coolpad to have a tougher time in the mobile segment as shipments are falling and a loss on the disposal of Coolpad e-Commerce Hong Kong: Consensus earnings estimates Consensus EPS growth estimates versus actual EPS growth 3 5 6 0 6 (20) (10) - 10 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Actual EPS growth Consensus' estimate - 1yr fwd (%, YoY) Company name RIC code Sector Mcap (US$m) EPS g* (%) Li Ning 2331.HK Cons. Disc. 977 924 Lenovo Group 0992.HK Info Tech 7,347 851 Wisdom Sports Group 1661.HK Cons. Disc. 506 629 Melco Int’l Dev. 0200.HK Cons. Disc. 1,523 474 TCL Multimedia Technology 1070.HK Cons. Disc. 938 423 Company name RIC code Sector Mcap (US$m) EPS g* (%) Harbin Electric 1133.HK Industrials 611 (114) Shougang Fushan Resources Group 0639.HK Materials 923 (97) Coolpad Group 2369.HK Info Tech 886 (86) CNOOC 0883.HK Energy 57,212 (83) Yuexiu REIT 0405.HK Financials 1,705 (44)
  • 4. 28 July 2016 4 Highest consensus target price expected return Lowest consensus target price expected return Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters Note: *Actual return from March 2016 to year-to-date. For methodology explanation visit BecomeaBetterInvestor.net/blog/how-to-benefit-from-our-watching-the-street-charts/ The target price expected return has been double- digit year after year, despite single-digit or negative actual return Consensus expects a 13% upside 12 months forward Wisdom Sports has a high expected upside, as the share price has fallen more than 50% year-to-date China Huishan Dairy is also the company with most target price downside due to the price jump in 2015 Hong Kong: Consensus target price Consensus target price expected return versus actual return Company name RIC code Sector Mcap (US$m) Up/Dn (%) Wisdom Sports Group 1661.HK Cons. Disc. 506 97 Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Group 0460.HK Health Care 2,498 94 Bloomage Biotechnology 0963.HK Materials 597 66 Global Brands Group 0787.HK Cons. Disc. 745 64 Shun Tak Holdings 0242.HK Industrials 981 63 Company name RIC code Sector Mcap (US$m) Up/Dn (%) China Huishan Dairy 6863.HK Cons. Staples 5,438 (48) Sa Sa International 0178.HK Cons. Disc. 1,275 (34) Truly International 0732.HK Info Tech 1,522 (29) HK Electric Investments 2638.HK Utilities 9,341 (28) Great Eagle Holdings 0041.HK Financials 3,052 (25) 18 14 20 13 18 13 (20) (10) - 10 20 30 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016* 12mth fwdActual return Est upside (%)
  • 5. 6 May 201628 July 2016 5  Want more of our research?  Sign up for our free newsletter at: BecomeaBetterInvestor.net/join