1) Latvia is experiencing rising inflation driven by increasing energy costs, while economic sentiment remains close to pre-pandemic levels.
2) While exports continue to grow, transportation services exports are still far below pre-COVID levels. Domestic economic activity is also recovering but construction capacity constraints could emerge.
3) Overall the Latvian economy is recovering from the pandemic, but risks remain from supply chain issues, rising prices and the potential of overheating in some sectors like construction.
The impact of pandemics on labour market in Latvia Latvijas Banka
The document discusses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Latvia's labor market in three key points:
1) Overall, the impact has been limited so far, but it varies significantly by sector, occupation, and population group, with low-income workers most affected.
2) Without government support programs, unemployment would be almost double current rates.
3) Younger workers experienced more job losses, while employment in sectors like healthcare and education remained stable for older groups. Certain sectors like tourism saw sharp declines compared to increases in technology jobs.
Latvijas Bankas Starptautisko attiecību un komunikācijas pārvaldes padomnieka Andra Strazda lekcija Latvijas Universitātē "Selected global (economic) trends and drivers behind them".
Latvijas Bankas Starptautisko attiecību un komunikācijas pārvaldes vadītāja Jura Kravaļa lekcija "Globālās ekonomikas tendences" Biznesa augstskolā "Turība" 2019. gada 8. oktobrī.
Recent Economic Developments in Latvia and Medium-term OutlookLatvijas Banka
This presentation summarises recent macroeconomic developments in Latvia and outlines a medium-term outlook for real GDP and inflation. Presentation reviews ongoing economic recovery, labour market issues and includes analyses on core factors behind the path of inflation. The main focus of the presentation is on the issue of competitiveness of the Latvian economy pointing to the costs adjustment process and productivity gains, as well as presenting export performance, market shares and current account developments. Presentation also features slides on monetary and financial market developments.
Prezentācija "Globālās ekonomikas tendences"Latvijas Banka
The document provides an overview of selected global economic trends and drivers behind them. It discusses that life today is better than ever before with fewer people living in extreme poverty, higher literacy rates, and decreased child mortality. It also notes that China's economic rise has been impressive as its GDP has grown significantly in recent decades, though this is partially due to China returning to its historic large share of global GDP. Globalization benefits the global middle class and very rich the most while the very poor and middle class in advanced economies have benefited less. Many feel left behind by globalization and economic changes, affecting political outcomes. Climate change also poses physical and transition risks to the economy and financial system.
This presentation summarises recent macroeconomic developments in Latvia and outlines a medium-term outlook for real GDP and inflation. Presentation reviews ongoing economic recovery, labour market issues and includes analyses on core factors behind the path of inflation. The main focus of the presentation is on the issue of competitiveness of the Latvian economy pointing to the costs adjustment process and productivity gains, as well as presenting export performance, market shares and current account developments. Presentation also features slides on monetary and financial market developments.
Employment and labour market during and after covid 19 pandemicLatvijas Banka
The document discusses the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on employment and labor markets in the Baltic countries, particularly Latvia. It finds that while the overall impact has been limited so far, it varies significantly by sector, occupation, and population group, with low-income workers being most affected. This could increase structural unemployment and inequality without government intervention. The document also notes that long-term labor market challenges like skill mismatches and high structural unemployment predated the pandemic and still need to be addressed through measures like improving education and healthcare, promoting lifelong learning, and activating groups with low employment.
The impact of pandemics on labour market in Latvia Latvijas Banka
The document discusses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Latvia's labor market in three key points:
1) Overall, the impact has been limited so far, but it varies significantly by sector, occupation, and population group, with low-income workers most affected.
2) Without government support programs, unemployment would be almost double current rates.
3) Younger workers experienced more job losses, while employment in sectors like healthcare and education remained stable for older groups. Certain sectors like tourism saw sharp declines compared to increases in technology jobs.
Latvijas Bankas Starptautisko attiecību un komunikācijas pārvaldes padomnieka Andra Strazda lekcija Latvijas Universitātē "Selected global (economic) trends and drivers behind them".
Latvijas Bankas Starptautisko attiecību un komunikācijas pārvaldes vadītāja Jura Kravaļa lekcija "Globālās ekonomikas tendences" Biznesa augstskolā "Turība" 2019. gada 8. oktobrī.
Recent Economic Developments in Latvia and Medium-term OutlookLatvijas Banka
This presentation summarises recent macroeconomic developments in Latvia and outlines a medium-term outlook for real GDP and inflation. Presentation reviews ongoing economic recovery, labour market issues and includes analyses on core factors behind the path of inflation. The main focus of the presentation is on the issue of competitiveness of the Latvian economy pointing to the costs adjustment process and productivity gains, as well as presenting export performance, market shares and current account developments. Presentation also features slides on monetary and financial market developments.
Prezentācija "Globālās ekonomikas tendences"Latvijas Banka
The document provides an overview of selected global economic trends and drivers behind them. It discusses that life today is better than ever before with fewer people living in extreme poverty, higher literacy rates, and decreased child mortality. It also notes that China's economic rise has been impressive as its GDP has grown significantly in recent decades, though this is partially due to China returning to its historic large share of global GDP. Globalization benefits the global middle class and very rich the most while the very poor and middle class in advanced economies have benefited less. Many feel left behind by globalization and economic changes, affecting political outcomes. Climate change also poses physical and transition risks to the economy and financial system.
This presentation summarises recent macroeconomic developments in Latvia and outlines a medium-term outlook for real GDP and inflation. Presentation reviews ongoing economic recovery, labour market issues and includes analyses on core factors behind the path of inflation. The main focus of the presentation is on the issue of competitiveness of the Latvian economy pointing to the costs adjustment process and productivity gains, as well as presenting export performance, market shares and current account developments. Presentation also features slides on monetary and financial market developments.
Employment and labour market during and after covid 19 pandemicLatvijas Banka
The document discusses the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on employment and labor markets in the Baltic countries, particularly Latvia. It finds that while the overall impact has been limited so far, it varies significantly by sector, occupation, and population group, with low-income workers being most affected. This could increase structural unemployment and inequality without government intervention. The document also notes that long-term labor market challenges like skill mismatches and high structural unemployment predated the pandemic and still need to be addressed through measures like improving education and healthcare, promoting lifelong learning, and activating groups with low employment.
This presentation summarises recent macroeconomic developments in Latvia and outlines a medium-term outlook for real GDP and inflation. Presentation reviews ongoing economic recovery, labour market issues and includes analyses on core factors behind the path of inflation. The main focus of the presentation is on the issue of competitiveness of the Latvian economy pointing to the costs adjustment process and productivity gains, as well as presenting export performance, market shares and current account developments. Presentation also features slides on monetary and financial market developments.
Presentation by Uldis Rutkaste, Head of Monetary Policy Department, Latvijas ...Latvijas Banka
- Investment in Latvia, as measured by gross fixed capital formation, declined significantly after the global financial crisis and has not fully recovered. Private sector investment activity, in particular, has been anemic.
- Latvian companies rely relatively little on capital markets for financing and have low levels of debt compared to other EU countries. Bank lending to businesses and households in Latvia is among the lowest in the EU.
- Weaker lending activity may have negatively impacted investment and economic growth in Latvia over the past four years according to models from Latvijas Banka. Investment trends across asset classes also support these findings.
The Wind of Change: Economic and Financial OutlookLatvijas Banka
Presentation by Governor of Latvijas Banka and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank Mārtiņš Kazāks during discussion on Latvia's economic developments in Brussels.
The document provides an overview and forecasts of macroeconomics in the Baltic states. It finds that the Baltic economies have converged towards EU income levels faster than other countries. While the structure of the economies is similar, manufacturing and trade make up relatively larger shares in Lithuania. Post-crisis growth has surpassed pre-crisis levels, though Latvia experienced a deeper crisis and longer recovery. Strong growth is broad-based but volatile construction growth stands out. Tight labor markets and rising wages are putting inflationary pressures, while open economies make the Baltics dependent on global trade growth. Medium-long term growth depends on productive investment and efficient resource use.
Slovenia 2017 OECD Economic Survey Boosting investment through better skills ...OECD, Economics Department
The OECD Economic Survey of Slovenia 2017 document makes the following key points in 3 sentences:
The Slovenian economy is rebounding from a long recession, but further investment is needed to boost productivity through improving skills development and reducing regulatory burdens. Unemployment is declining but long-term joblessness remains high, and the country faces fiscal challenges from an aging population that threaten debt sustainability if not addressed. The survey makes recommendations in areas like education, the labor market, state-owned enterprises, and regulation to support higher growth and living standards in Slovenia.
Looking at the recent past: the economic crisis in Italy has been deeper than other European countries
The crisis in the real economy has been reflected hard on Italian banks, given their business mix traditionally oriented to lending, unlike other European banks more exposed to finance
The consequence was a sharp increase in loan loss provisions (with obvious negative impact on profitability)
Despite the intensity of the crisis, public interventions in favor of the banking sector in Italy were much lower than in other large European countries
Looking ahead: macro environment has changed and the performance of the Italian economy has been good last year and should continue to be positive in the next years
Italian banks state of health is increasing: (1) 70 billion euro of new private capital injections from 2017 ...
Capitalization increase: CET1 ratio of top 11 Italians banks has increased to 13.3%, close to the EU average; net of weighting methodologies IT banks stand over the EU average
Credit risk has normalized
NPL stock is declining quickly
NPL ratio is expected to speedily return to manageable value: under 10% in 2019 and at 6,1% at the end of 2021
NPL disposals are growing exponentially speeding up the reduction of the NPL ratio
The absence of an effective coordination in the regulation process doesn’t help
Despite this context, Italian banks’ profitability is increasing, close to pre-crisis level based on 1q 2018 annualized figure
Market appreciation of Italian banks progresses are confirmed by the increasing presence of foreign institutional investors in banks’ capital (higher than in the rest of major European banks)...
Banks’ holdings of domestic government bonds in the euro area
The maturity structure of public debt matters: In Italy the average residual life of outstanding government securities is of 7.4 years
Presentation of Prof. Lars Feld - The Economic Situation in EMU - Where do we...Bankenverband
GCEE Business Cycle Update, March 2018: “In the euro area, the level of indebtedness of many member states remains very high. This is particularly true of Italy where the national debt stands at over 130 % of GDP. Should financial markets lose confidence in the sustainability of public debt on account of the political uncertainty resulting from the outcome of the election, given the size of the Italian economy a return of the euro crisis cannot be ruled out. Furthermore, risks to financial stability continue to persist in certain member states due to the fragility of many banks, particularly with regard to the extent of non-performing loans.”
Macroeconomic Developments Report. September 2021Latvijas Banka
This document provides an overview of recent macroeconomic developments globally and in the euro area in September 2021. It notes that while the global economic recovery is underway, risks remain from the pandemic and supply chain issues. Growth is strongest in countries with high vaccination rates that have reopened more. The US and euro area are recovering rapidly but inflation has increased due to pandemic-related factors. Commodity prices have risen significantly. The document reviews recent GDP and economic sentiment data for major economies and the euro area, finding the recovery is generally stronger than expected.
The Big IF... Stress-testing BREXIT with combined performance and risk analyticsStatPro Group
EU referendum. UK votes to leave or remain. How large asset management firms need to prepare for a possible Brexit with combined performance and risk analytics.
The OECD Economic Survey of the Slovak Republic finds that while the Slovak economy is performing well with robust growth and low public debt, benefits are not equitably shared. Regional inequalities are high, the Roma population is poorly integrated, and long-term unemployment remains an issue. Public sector efficiency is also low, with weak education and health care system outcomes. The Survey recommends structural reforms to improve public sector efficiency, increase teachers' salaries, boost tertiary education quality, expand lifelong learning, rationalize hospital care, increase primary health care efficiency, and expand long-term care supply.
Eesti Pank Economic Statement 11 June 2014Eesti Pank
The document provides an economic statement from Eesti Pank (the central bank of Estonia) that summarizes the Estonian economy and provides a forecast for coming years. Key points include that growth in Estonia's external demand is accelerating which will boost the Estonian economy in 2014 and 2015. Inflation will rise but remain moderate in coming years. Economic growth over the forecast period will be supported by steady recovery in external demand and low interest rates, though the key issue for sustained growth is improving productivity. Risks include a potential deepening of the crisis between Russia and Ukraine.
The document is a 2017 OECD Economic Survey of Latvia that provides an overview and analysis of Latvia's economy. Some key points:
- Latvia has experienced strong economic growth in recent years underpinned by economic reforms, but productivity and income gaps with high-income countries remain large.
- Poverty and unemployment are still high in some regions of Latvia despite falling overall. Access to affordable housing, jobs, and healthcare need improvement.
- Deeper integration into international trade could help boost productivity, but skills shortages are holding back participation in global value chains.
Switzerland 2017 OECD Economic Survey boosting productivity and meeting skill...OECD, Economics Department
The document is the 2017 OECD Economic Survey of Switzerland. It finds that while living standards are high, economic growth has been slow and productivity growth has stalled. It notes that employment is high but productivity has declined, and skills shortages exist. The survey makes several recommendations to boost productivity through improving framework conditions, better using women's and immigrant skills, and ensuring a dynamic skills training system.
Changes in economic environment. Macro overview and outlook for 2013-2014 Mārtiņš Pakulis
A presentation by Mārtiņš Kazāks about «Changes in economic environment. Macro overview and outlook for 2013-2014.»
Presented on 27th March, 2013 in Riga Business School.
United states-2018-oecd-economic-survey-sustaining-growth-and-raising-employmentOECD, Economics Department
The document is an OECD Economic Survey of the United States that discusses recent economic trends and makes policy recommendations. It finds that the US expansion is continuing with GDP and employment growth, but fiscal stimulus is needed to sustain growth. It recommends implementing corporate tax reform permanently and reining in spending to stabilize public debt. It also suggests reducing regulatory barriers in services, boosting skills training, and addressing the opioid crisis to help more workers find jobs.
This document provides an economic survey and recommendations for Lithuania conducted by the OECD. It summarizes that while incomes and GDP have been converging with OECD averages, unemployment has declined, and exports have been robust, poverty remains high. Key recommendations include reducing social security contributions for low-income workers, increasing property taxes exempting low-income households, and strengthening vocational education and training to promote more inclusive growth.
Portugal has undertaken an ambitious structural reform programme since 2011. Reforms have spanned across a wide range of policy areas, product markets, labour markets, taxes, regulations and the public sector.
Euro area-european-union-enhancing-european-cooperation-oecd-economic-survey-...OECD, Economics Department
The 2016 OECD Economic Survey of the European Union and Euro Area finds that while macroeconomic policies have become more supportive, demand remains weak and unemployment is very high. It recommends that countries with fiscal space boost growth through budget support, and that monetary policy stay accommodative. It also suggests speeding up the resolution of non-performing loans, promoting non-bank financing, increasing public investment, reducing regulatory burdens, and enhancing labor mobility through increased recognition of qualifications and portability of pensions. Structural reforms across these areas could significantly increase EU GDP.
Darba tirgus izaicinājumi Latvijā un Eiropas Savienībā: no pandēmijas līdz kr...Latvijas Banka
The document summarizes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine on Latvia's labor market. It finds that while unemployment increased during the pandemic, government support programs prevented larger job losses. Unemployment has since declined and is now only slightly above pre-pandemic levels. Younger workers and those in sectors like hospitality were most affected by pandemic layoffs. The invasion of Ukraine has worsened economic forecasts for Latvia in 2022 and exacerbated pre-existing labor market challenges around demographic changes and skills shortages.
Impact of Russia`s invasion of Ukraine on Latvia`s economic growthLatvijas Banka
Russia's invasion of Ukraine will negatively impact Latvia's economic growth through several channels: disruption of exports to Russia and Belarus, unavailability of imports from those countries, increases in global energy and commodity prices, and deterioration of confidence. GDP is projected to be nearly 2% lower than expected in the first year, with effects lingering into the third year. Unemployment is also expected to rise due to the war. Inflation will accelerate as prices increase in nearly all product groups, driven by higher energy, food and commodity prices globally. The government is taking measures to boost investment and support economic activity.
This presentation summarises recent macroeconomic developments in Latvia and outlines a medium-term outlook for real GDP and inflation. Presentation reviews ongoing economic recovery, labour market issues and includes analyses on core factors behind the path of inflation. The main focus of the presentation is on the issue of competitiveness of the Latvian economy pointing to the costs adjustment process and productivity gains, as well as presenting export performance, market shares and current account developments. Presentation also features slides on monetary and financial market developments.
Presentation by Uldis Rutkaste, Head of Monetary Policy Department, Latvijas ...Latvijas Banka
- Investment in Latvia, as measured by gross fixed capital formation, declined significantly after the global financial crisis and has not fully recovered. Private sector investment activity, in particular, has been anemic.
- Latvian companies rely relatively little on capital markets for financing and have low levels of debt compared to other EU countries. Bank lending to businesses and households in Latvia is among the lowest in the EU.
- Weaker lending activity may have negatively impacted investment and economic growth in Latvia over the past four years according to models from Latvijas Banka. Investment trends across asset classes also support these findings.
The Wind of Change: Economic and Financial OutlookLatvijas Banka
Presentation by Governor of Latvijas Banka and member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank Mārtiņš Kazāks during discussion on Latvia's economic developments in Brussels.
The document provides an overview and forecasts of macroeconomics in the Baltic states. It finds that the Baltic economies have converged towards EU income levels faster than other countries. While the structure of the economies is similar, manufacturing and trade make up relatively larger shares in Lithuania. Post-crisis growth has surpassed pre-crisis levels, though Latvia experienced a deeper crisis and longer recovery. Strong growth is broad-based but volatile construction growth stands out. Tight labor markets and rising wages are putting inflationary pressures, while open economies make the Baltics dependent on global trade growth. Medium-long term growth depends on productive investment and efficient resource use.
Slovenia 2017 OECD Economic Survey Boosting investment through better skills ...OECD, Economics Department
The OECD Economic Survey of Slovenia 2017 document makes the following key points in 3 sentences:
The Slovenian economy is rebounding from a long recession, but further investment is needed to boost productivity through improving skills development and reducing regulatory burdens. Unemployment is declining but long-term joblessness remains high, and the country faces fiscal challenges from an aging population that threaten debt sustainability if not addressed. The survey makes recommendations in areas like education, the labor market, state-owned enterprises, and regulation to support higher growth and living standards in Slovenia.
Looking at the recent past: the economic crisis in Italy has been deeper than other European countries
The crisis in the real economy has been reflected hard on Italian banks, given their business mix traditionally oriented to lending, unlike other European banks more exposed to finance
The consequence was a sharp increase in loan loss provisions (with obvious negative impact on profitability)
Despite the intensity of the crisis, public interventions in favor of the banking sector in Italy were much lower than in other large European countries
Looking ahead: macro environment has changed and the performance of the Italian economy has been good last year and should continue to be positive in the next years
Italian banks state of health is increasing: (1) 70 billion euro of new private capital injections from 2017 ...
Capitalization increase: CET1 ratio of top 11 Italians banks has increased to 13.3%, close to the EU average; net of weighting methodologies IT banks stand over the EU average
Credit risk has normalized
NPL stock is declining quickly
NPL ratio is expected to speedily return to manageable value: under 10% in 2019 and at 6,1% at the end of 2021
NPL disposals are growing exponentially speeding up the reduction of the NPL ratio
The absence of an effective coordination in the regulation process doesn’t help
Despite this context, Italian banks’ profitability is increasing, close to pre-crisis level based on 1q 2018 annualized figure
Market appreciation of Italian banks progresses are confirmed by the increasing presence of foreign institutional investors in banks’ capital (higher than in the rest of major European banks)...
Banks’ holdings of domestic government bonds in the euro area
The maturity structure of public debt matters: In Italy the average residual life of outstanding government securities is of 7.4 years
Presentation of Prof. Lars Feld - The Economic Situation in EMU - Where do we...Bankenverband
GCEE Business Cycle Update, March 2018: “In the euro area, the level of indebtedness of many member states remains very high. This is particularly true of Italy where the national debt stands at over 130 % of GDP. Should financial markets lose confidence in the sustainability of public debt on account of the political uncertainty resulting from the outcome of the election, given the size of the Italian economy a return of the euro crisis cannot be ruled out. Furthermore, risks to financial stability continue to persist in certain member states due to the fragility of many banks, particularly with regard to the extent of non-performing loans.”
Macroeconomic Developments Report. September 2021Latvijas Banka
This document provides an overview of recent macroeconomic developments globally and in the euro area in September 2021. It notes that while the global economic recovery is underway, risks remain from the pandemic and supply chain issues. Growth is strongest in countries with high vaccination rates that have reopened more. The US and euro area are recovering rapidly but inflation has increased due to pandemic-related factors. Commodity prices have risen significantly. The document reviews recent GDP and economic sentiment data for major economies and the euro area, finding the recovery is generally stronger than expected.
The Big IF... Stress-testing BREXIT with combined performance and risk analyticsStatPro Group
EU referendum. UK votes to leave or remain. How large asset management firms need to prepare for a possible Brexit with combined performance and risk analytics.
The OECD Economic Survey of the Slovak Republic finds that while the Slovak economy is performing well with robust growth and low public debt, benefits are not equitably shared. Regional inequalities are high, the Roma population is poorly integrated, and long-term unemployment remains an issue. Public sector efficiency is also low, with weak education and health care system outcomes. The Survey recommends structural reforms to improve public sector efficiency, increase teachers' salaries, boost tertiary education quality, expand lifelong learning, rationalize hospital care, increase primary health care efficiency, and expand long-term care supply.
Eesti Pank Economic Statement 11 June 2014Eesti Pank
The document provides an economic statement from Eesti Pank (the central bank of Estonia) that summarizes the Estonian economy and provides a forecast for coming years. Key points include that growth in Estonia's external demand is accelerating which will boost the Estonian economy in 2014 and 2015. Inflation will rise but remain moderate in coming years. Economic growth over the forecast period will be supported by steady recovery in external demand and low interest rates, though the key issue for sustained growth is improving productivity. Risks include a potential deepening of the crisis between Russia and Ukraine.
The document is a 2017 OECD Economic Survey of Latvia that provides an overview and analysis of Latvia's economy. Some key points:
- Latvia has experienced strong economic growth in recent years underpinned by economic reforms, but productivity and income gaps with high-income countries remain large.
- Poverty and unemployment are still high in some regions of Latvia despite falling overall. Access to affordable housing, jobs, and healthcare need improvement.
- Deeper integration into international trade could help boost productivity, but skills shortages are holding back participation in global value chains.
Switzerland 2017 OECD Economic Survey boosting productivity and meeting skill...OECD, Economics Department
The document is the 2017 OECD Economic Survey of Switzerland. It finds that while living standards are high, economic growth has been slow and productivity growth has stalled. It notes that employment is high but productivity has declined, and skills shortages exist. The survey makes several recommendations to boost productivity through improving framework conditions, better using women's and immigrant skills, and ensuring a dynamic skills training system.
Changes in economic environment. Macro overview and outlook for 2013-2014 Mārtiņš Pakulis
A presentation by Mārtiņš Kazāks about «Changes in economic environment. Macro overview and outlook for 2013-2014.»
Presented on 27th March, 2013 in Riga Business School.
United states-2018-oecd-economic-survey-sustaining-growth-and-raising-employmentOECD, Economics Department
The document is an OECD Economic Survey of the United States that discusses recent economic trends and makes policy recommendations. It finds that the US expansion is continuing with GDP and employment growth, but fiscal stimulus is needed to sustain growth. It recommends implementing corporate tax reform permanently and reining in spending to stabilize public debt. It also suggests reducing regulatory barriers in services, boosting skills training, and addressing the opioid crisis to help more workers find jobs.
This document provides an economic survey and recommendations for Lithuania conducted by the OECD. It summarizes that while incomes and GDP have been converging with OECD averages, unemployment has declined, and exports have been robust, poverty remains high. Key recommendations include reducing social security contributions for low-income workers, increasing property taxes exempting low-income households, and strengthening vocational education and training to promote more inclusive growth.
Portugal has undertaken an ambitious structural reform programme since 2011. Reforms have spanned across a wide range of policy areas, product markets, labour markets, taxes, regulations and the public sector.
Euro area-european-union-enhancing-european-cooperation-oecd-economic-survey-...OECD, Economics Department
The 2016 OECD Economic Survey of the European Union and Euro Area finds that while macroeconomic policies have become more supportive, demand remains weak and unemployment is very high. It recommends that countries with fiscal space boost growth through budget support, and that monetary policy stay accommodative. It also suggests speeding up the resolution of non-performing loans, promoting non-bank financing, increasing public investment, reducing regulatory burdens, and enhancing labor mobility through increased recognition of qualifications and portability of pensions. Structural reforms across these areas could significantly increase EU GDP.
Darba tirgus izaicinājumi Latvijā un Eiropas Savienībā: no pandēmijas līdz kr...Latvijas Banka
The document summarizes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russian invasion of Ukraine on Latvia's labor market. It finds that while unemployment increased during the pandemic, government support programs prevented larger job losses. Unemployment has since declined and is now only slightly above pre-pandemic levels. Younger workers and those in sectors like hospitality were most affected by pandemic layoffs. The invasion of Ukraine has worsened economic forecasts for Latvia in 2022 and exacerbated pre-existing labor market challenges around demographic changes and skills shortages.
Impact of Russia`s invasion of Ukraine on Latvia`s economic growthLatvijas Banka
Russia's invasion of Ukraine will negatively impact Latvia's economic growth through several channels: disruption of exports to Russia and Belarus, unavailability of imports from those countries, increases in global energy and commodity prices, and deterioration of confidence. GDP is projected to be nearly 2% lower than expected in the first year, with effects lingering into the third year. Unemployment is also expected to rise due to the war. Inflation will accelerate as prices increase in nearly all product groups, driven by higher energy, food and commodity prices globally. The government is taking measures to boost investment and support economic activity.
Impact of Russia`s invasion of Ukraine on Latvia`s economic growth and fiscal...Latvijas Banka
Russia's invasion of Ukraine will negatively impact Latvia's economic growth through several channels: disruptions to exports to Russia and Belarus, unavailability of imports from those countries, higher global energy and commodity prices, and reduced confidence. GDP growth is projected to decline by around 2% in the first year due to lost trade, though about half the exports could be redirected to other markets. Higher oil and gas prices pose upside risks to inflation projections. Measures are being taken to boost energy independence, climate investments, labor market support, and public investment to help sustain economic growth in the face of these challenges.
Latvijas Bankas ekonomistes Santas Bērziņas un Ievas Opmanes prezentācija sanāksmē ar starptautisko reitinga aģentūru "Moody's Investors Service" 2022. gada 24. martā.
1) Inflation remains high and risks of second-round effects on wages and de-anchoring of inflation expectations persist. Monetary policy will need to go beyond neutral rates and hikes will become more cautious to return inflation to 2% in the medium term.
2) Industrial production figures hide disruption in energy-intensive industries, whose outlook remains weak. Inflation has increased broadly across countries due to high energy and food prices, and core inflation is also picking up.
3) Recession risks are rising as geopolitical uncertainty and the war in Ukraine push the euro area closer to contraction in 2023, according to ECB projections. Monetary policy normalization will continue in steps to withdraw accommodation.
Promoting a stronger and more inclusive economy OECD Economic Survey Hungary ...OECD, Economics Department
The OECD Economic Survey of Hungary 2019 document discusses several key points:
1) The Hungarian economy is growing strongly but policies are needed to address risks to the recovery.
2) Greater economic inclusiveness would bolster growth as poverty and unemployment remain issues in some regions.
3) Population aging will significantly increase costs related to pensions and healthcare, which need to be addressed through reforms.
Spanish GDP is forecast to decline between 10.1% and 12.4% in 2020 due to the negative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic activity. The public deficit is expected to increase to between 11.9% and 14.4% of GDP and public debt is projected to be between 117.6% and 123.2% of GDP. Exports declined 17.2% between January and May 2020 compared to a 1.9% increase in the same period of 2019 as the pandemic impacted foreign trade.
The document summarizes economic forecasts and recent economic data from Spain, the Eurozone, the UK, and China:
1) The Bank of Spain outlines two scenarios for Spain's economy depending on the course of the pandemic, with GDP projected to fall 10.5-12.6% in 2020 before a partial recovery in 2021.
2) Unemployment in Spain is forecast to rise to 17.1-18.6% in 2020 and remain elevated at 19.4-22.1% in 2021.
3) The public deficit in Spain is expected to widen significantly to 10.8-12.1% of GDP in 2020, with debt levels rising to 116.8-120
This document discusses comparisons between the economies and welfare indicators of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. It summarizes recent economic trends in the Baltic countries, including high inflation driven by rising energy and commodity prices, slowing exports due to trade restrictions with Russia, and declining consumer confidence. It also compares GDP, wages, taxes, unemployment, minimum wage levels, and sectors of economic activity between the three countries. While Lithuania has the highest average gross wages, average net wages are more similar once taxes are accounted for. Estonia has been more successful in attracting investment and new enterprises in technology sectors. Regional economic disparities exist within each country as well.
This document provides a summary of economic indicators related to the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium as of July 7, 2021. It includes charts and graphs showing trends in COVID-19 hospitalizations, vaccination rates, GDP, business and consumer confidence, employment levels, and other labor market indicators. The overall message is that the Belgian economy is gradually recovering as the pandemic situation improves thanks to vaccination progress, but some regional differences and risks remain.
Reforms for a stronger and more integrated Europe OECD Economic Surveys EU eu...OECD, Economics Department
This document provides an economic summary and recommendations from the 2018 OECD Economic Survey of the European Union and Euro Area. It finds that while the economy is expanding and unemployment falling in the Euro Area, inflation remains below target. It recommends reforms to strengthen the monetary union, reduce financial fragmentation, improve long-term growth, and reform the EU budget. Specific policies include developing a common fiscal capacity and unemployment benefit scheme, expanding European capital markets, addressing barriers in services, and increasing digital skills.
In this monthly summary of the state of the Spanish and international company, we talk about the labor cost in Spain, international trade in services, the state of hotel overnight stays in Spain, where is the German PMI and the industrial production of China , in addition to what are the prices of raw materials.
The document provides an economic overview for April 2021. It notes that industrial prices in March were pushed up by increases in energy and intermediate goods. The unemployment rate in the first quarter of 2021 increased 1.58 percentage points to 15.98% despite declines in both the active population and number of unemployed. Public debt in the Eurozone reached €11.1 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2020, with Spain's debt at 120% of GDP.
The document summarizes Stephen Tapp's presentation at the CGAI Conference on February 9, 2021. It discusses the COVID-19 economic shock and policy response. The pandemic caused a pervasive and profound recession that impacted sectors and firm sizes unequally. However, the global economic contraction was not as severe as initially predicted due to unprecedented policy support and resilient global goods trade. Looking ahead, the post-pandemic economy may see more online activity, inequality, public debt, and diversified global commerce.
This document analyzes the Russian economy in a global context and provides an outlook for Russia's economic growth prospects. Some key points:
1) Russia has the 6th largest economy globally but GDP growth has slowed in recent years from over 3% to around 1-2% expected for 2014.
2) Inflation has declined significantly since the 2000s but unemployment has not improved correspondingly.
3) Exports and imports remain dependent on oil/gas and domestic demand respectively. Weakening global growth and Russia's reliance on exports pose risks to economic growth.
4) Private consumption continues to support the economy but investments remain subdued due to uncertain outlook and falling corporate profits linked to oil prices
The document summarizes economic forecasts from sources like the IMF and Eurostat regarding the impact of COVID-19 on economies like Spain and globally. It notes that Spain's public deficit is forecast to increase to 9.5% of GDP in 2020 due to economic contraction and increased welfare spending. Unemployment in Spain's hospitality industry could increase by 25% (350,000 jobs lost) with additional jobs at risk. The IMF forecasts a 3% contraction of global GDP in 2020 and a slower recovery in 2021, with advanced economies like Spain and Italy projected to see the largest downturns at -8% and -9.1% respectively.
The document reports on recent economic indicators in Spain and other regions:
- Industrial production in Spain increased 2.1% year-over-year in November 2019, driven by growth in capital goods, consumer goods, and intermediate goods.
- Spain's services PMI hit a nine-month high of 54.9 in December 2019, indicating expansion led by increasing orders and hiring.
- Deposits by Spanish non-financial corporations increased 6.8% in November 2019, the largest rise in over a year.
The document summarizes recent economic indicators from Spain, the Eurozone, China, and the US. In Spain, 7,339 businesses were incorporated in November 2020, a slight increase from the previous year. The manufacturing and services PMIs both improved but remained below 50, indicating a downturn. In the Eurozone, industrial production fell 0.6% year-over-year in November, with decreases in various sectors. China's GDP grew 2.3% in 2020, its slowest growth since 1976, with retail sales declining. The US announced a $1.9 trillion COVID rescue plan providing additional direct payments, unemployment benefits, and other relief.
Lekcija: Latvijas tautsaimniecība – pārkaršanas riski (English)Latvijas Banka
Latvijas tautsaimniecības izaugsme ir paātrinājusies. Arī iedzīvotāju ienākumi pakāpeniski aug. Atšķirībā no krīzes laika - kas šobrīd ir savādāk?
Prezentācijā tiek analizēti:
• Latvijas tautsaimniecības izaugsmi noteicošie faktori;
• Tautsaimniecības attīstību raksturojošie strukturālie rādītāji;
• Līdzsvarotai attīstībai nepieciešamās kapacitātes veidošanās līdzšinējās tendences un
• Nākotnes iespējas.
Romain Duval. IMF Regional Economic Outlook for EuropeEesti Pank
31. oktoobril 2022 toimus Eesti Panga avatud seminar, kus Rahvusvahelise Valuutafondi esindaja Romain A. Duval tutvustas IMFi Euroopa osakonnas vastvalminud regionaalset majandusväljavaadet.
Similar to Vieslekcija "Economic trends in Latvia" (20)
Human capital as the key to economic developmentLatvijas Banka
This document discusses human capital as the key driver of economic development in Latvia. It finds that while Latvia's population and workforce are projected to decrease in the coming decades, there are still substantial internal labor reserves that could be activated, such as among the young and upper-middle aged men. Improving health outcomes and reducing excess mortality is identified as the most promising way to stop depopulation trends. Additionally, public spending on education and healthcare in Latvia has been modest and outcomes could be improved by increasing efficiency. Attracting high-skilled immigration through improved quality of life is also discussed but perceived livability in Riga does not yet lead to mass immigration.
Latvijas tautsaimniecības makroekonomiskā attīstība | Septembris 2023Latvijas Banka
Latvijas Bankas prezidenta Mārtiņa Kazāka un Monetārās politikas pārvaldes vadītāja Ulda Rutkastes prezentācija 2023. gada 29. septembrī par jaunākajām ekonomikas prognozēm.
Latvijas Bankas Finanšu pratības daļas vadītājas Aijas Brikšes prezentācija Rīgas Izglītības un informatīvi metodiskā centra seminārā skolotājiem "Drošs internets un droša digitālā finanšu pratība" 2023. gada 29. augustā.
Latvijas Bankas Makroekonomikas analīzes daļas galvenās ekonomistes Baibas Brusbārdes prezentācija seminārā "Aktualitātes ekonomikā" 2023. gada 24. augustā.
Latvijas Bankas Monetārās politikas analīzes daļas galvenās ekonomistes Anetes Kravinskas prezentācija seminārā "Aktualitātes ekonomikā" 2023. gada 24. augustā.
Latvijas Bankas Makroekonomikas analīzes daļas galvenā ekonomistes Dainas Paulas prezentācija seminārā "Aktualitātes ekonomikā" 2023. gada 24. augustā.
Latvijas Banka has revised Latvia's macroeconomic forecasts for 2023-2025. Inflation is projected to decline to 10% in 2023 and further to 2.7% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025. GDP growth is forecast to be 0.5% in 2023, then increase to 3.7% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025. Unemployment is projected to remain stable around 7.3-7.4% through 2025. The general government deficit is expected to decline from 4% of GDP in 2023 to around 2.7-1.5% of GDP in 2024-2025.
Latvijas tautsaimniecības makroekonomiskā attīstība | Marts 2023Latvijas Banka
Latvijas Bankas prezidenta Mārtiņa Kazāka un Monetārās politikas pārvaldes vadītāja Ulda Rutkastes prezentācija 2023. gada 31. martā par jaunākajām ekonomikas prognozēm.
The Rise and Fall of Ponzi Schemes in America.pptxDiana Rose
Ponzi schemes, a notorious form of financial fraud, have plagued America’s investment landscape for decades. Named after Charles Ponzi, who orchestrated one of the most infamous schemes in the early 20th century, these fraudulent operations promise high returns with little or no risk, only to collapse and leave investors with significant losses. This article explores the nature of Ponzi schemes, notable cases in American history, their impact on victims, and measures to prevent falling prey to such scams.
Understanding Ponzi Schemes
A Ponzi scheme is an investment scam where returns are paid to earlier investors using the capital from newer investors, rather than from legitimate profit earned. The scheme relies on a constant influx of new investments to continue paying the promised returns. Eventually, when the flow of new money slows down or stops, the scheme collapses, leaving the majority of investors with substantial financial losses.
Historical Context: Charles Ponzi and His Legacy
Charles Ponzi is the namesake of this deceptive practice. In the 1920s, Ponzi promised investors in Boston a 50% return within 45 days or 100% return in 90 days through arbitrage of international reply coupons. Initially, he paid returns as promised, not from profits, but from the investments of new participants. When his scheme unraveled, it resulted in losses exceeding $20 million (equivalent to about $270 million today).
Notable American Ponzi Schemes
1. Bernie Madoff: Perhaps the most notorious Ponzi scheme in recent history, Bernie Madoff’s fraud involved $65 billion. Madoff, a well-respected figure in the financial industry, promised steady, high returns through a secretive investment strategy. His scheme lasted for decades before collapsing in 2008, devastating thousands of investors, including individuals, charities, and institutional clients.
2. Allen Stanford: Through his company, Stanford Financial Group, Allen Stanford orchestrated a $7 billion Ponzi scheme, luring investors with fraudulent certificates of deposit issued by his offshore bank. Stanford promised high returns and lavish lifestyle benefits to his investors, which ultimately led to a 110-year prison sentence for the financier in 2012.
3. Tom Petters: In a scheme that lasted more than a decade, Tom Petters ran a $3.65 billion Ponzi scheme, using his company, Petters Group Worldwide. He claimed to buy and sell consumer electronics, but in reality, he used new investments to pay off old debts and fund his extravagant lifestyle. Petters was convicted in 2009 and sentenced to 50 years in prison.
4. Eric Dalius and Saivian: Eric Dalius, a prominent figure behind Saivian, a cashback program promising high returns, is under scrutiny for allegedly orchestrating a Ponzi scheme. Saivian enticed investors with promises of up to 20% cash back on everyday purchases. However, investigations suggest that the returns were paid using new investments rather than legitimate profits. The collapse of Saivian l
Vicinity Jobs’ data includes more than three million 2023 OJPs and thousands of skills. Most skills appear in less than 0.02% of job postings, so most postings rely on a small subset of commonly used terms, like teamwork.
Laura Adkins-Hackett, Economist, LMIC, and Sukriti Trehan, Data Scientist, LMIC, presented their research exploring trends in the skills listed in OJPs to develop a deeper understanding of in-demand skills. This research project uses pointwise mutual information and other methods to extract more information about common skills from the relationships between skills, occupations and regions.
Optimizing Net Interest Margin (NIM) in the Financial Sector (With Examples).pdfshruti1menon2
NIM is calculated as the difference between interest income earned and interest expenses paid, divided by interest-earning assets.
Importance: NIM serves as a critical measure of a financial institution's profitability and operational efficiency. It reflects how effectively the institution is utilizing its interest-earning assets to generate income while managing interest costs.
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...AntoniaOwensDetwiler
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
Fabular Frames and the Four Ratio ProblemMajid Iqbal
Digital, interactive art showing the struggle of a society in providing for its present population while also saving planetary resources for future generations. Spread across several frames, the art is actually the rendering of real and speculative data. The stereographic projections change shape in response to prompts and provocations. Visitors interact with the model through speculative statements about how to increase savings across communities, regions, ecosystems and environments. Their fabulations combined with random noise, i.e. factors beyond control, have a dramatic effect on the societal transition. Things get better. Things get worse. The aim is to give visitors a new grasp and feel of the ongoing struggles in democracies around the world.
Stunning art in the small multiples format brings out the spatiotemporal nature of societal transitions, against backdrop issues such as energy, housing, waste, farmland and forest. In each frame we see hopeful and frightful interplays between spending and saving. Problems emerge when one of the two parts of the existential anaglyph rapidly shrinks like Arctic ice, as factors cross thresholds. Ecological wealth and intergenerational equity areFour at stake. Not enough spending could mean economic stress, social unrest and political conflict. Not enough saving and there will be climate breakdown and ‘bankruptcy’. So where does speculative design start and the gambling and betting end? Behind each fabular frame is a four ratio problem. Each ratio reflects the level of sacrifice and self-restraint a society is willing to accept, against promises of prosperity and freedom. Some values seem to stabilise a frame while others cause collapse. Get the ratios right and we can have it all. Get them wrong and things get more desperate.
Discover the Future of Dogecoin with Our Comprehensive Guidance36 Crypto
Learn in-depth about Dogecoin's trajectory and stay informed with 36crypto's essential and up-to-date information about the crypto space.
Our presentation delves into Dogecoin's potential future, exploring whether it's destined to skyrocket to the moon or face a downward spiral. In addition, it highlights invaluable insights. Don't miss out on this opportunity to enhance your crypto understanding!
https://36crypto.com/the-future-of-dogecoin-how-high-can-this-cryptocurrency-reach/
13 Jun 24 ILC Retirement Income Summit - slides.pptxILC- UK
ILC's Retirement Income Summit was hosted by M&G and supported by Canada Life. The event brought together key policymakers, influencers and experts to help identify policy priorities for the next Government and ensure more of us have access to a decent income in retirement.
Contributors included:
Jo Blanden, Professor in Economics, University of Surrey
Clive Bolton, CEO, Life Insurance M&G Plc
Jim Boyd, CEO, Equity Release Council
Molly Broome, Economist, Resolution Foundation
Nida Broughton, Co-Director of Economic Policy, Behavioural Insights Team
Jonathan Cribb, Associate Director and Head of Retirement, Savings, and Ageing, Institute for Fiscal Studies
Joanna Elson CBE, Chief Executive Officer, Independent Age
Tom Evans, Managing Director of Retirement, Canada Life
Steve Groves, Chair, Key Retirement Group
Tish Hanifan, Founder and Joint Chair of the Society of Later life Advisers
Sue Lewis, ILC Trustee
Siobhan Lough, Senior Consultant, Hymans Robertson
Mick McAteer, Co-Director, The Financial Inclusion Centre
Stuart McDonald MBE, Head of Longevity and Democratic Insights, LCP
Anusha Mittal, Managing Director, Individual Life and Pensions, M&G Life
Shelley Morris, Senior Project Manager, Living Pension, Living Wage Foundation
Sarah O'Grady, Journalist
Will Sherlock, Head of External Relations, M&G Plc
Daniela Silcock, Head of Policy Research, Pensions Policy Institute
David Sinclair, Chief Executive, ILC
Jordi Skilbeck, Senior Policy Advisor, Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association
Rt Hon Sir Stephen Timms, former Chair, Work & Pensions Committee
Nigel Waterson, ILC Trustee
Jackie Wells, Strategy and Policy Consultant, ILC Strategic Advisory Board
KYC Compliance: A Cornerstone of Global Crypto Regulatory FrameworksAny kyc Account
This presentation explores the pivotal role of KYC compliance in shaping and enforcing global regulations within the dynamic landscape of cryptocurrencies. Dive into the intricate connection between KYC practices and the evolving legal frameworks governing the crypto industry.
In a tight labour market, job-seekers gain bargaining power and leverage it into greater job quality—at least, that’s the conventional wisdom.
Michael, LMIC Economist, presented findings that reveal a weakened relationship between labour market tightness and job quality indicators following the pandemic. Labour market tightness coincided with growth in real wages for only a portion of workers: those in low-wage jobs requiring little education. Several factors—including labour market composition, worker and employer behaviour, and labour market practices—have contributed to the absence of worker benefits. These will be investigated further in future work.
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
[4:55 p.m.] Bryan Oates
OJPs are becoming a critical resource for policy-makers and researchers who study the labour market. LMIC continues to work with Vicinity Jobs’ data on OJPs, which can be explored in our Canadian Job Trends Dashboard. Valuable insights have been gained through our analysis of OJP data, including LMIC research lead
Suzanne Spiteri’s recent report on improving the quality and accessibility of job postings to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
Decoding job postings: Improving accessibility for neurodivergent job seekers
Improving the quality and accessibility of job postings is one way to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
OJP data from firms like Vicinity Jobs have emerged as a complement to traditional sources of labour demand data, such as the Job Vacancy and Wages Survey (JVWS). Ibrahim Abuallail, PhD Candidate, University of Ottawa, presented research relating to bias in OJPs and a proposed approach to effectively adjust OJP data to complement existing official data (such as from the JVWS) and improve the measurement of labour demand.
University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcripttscdzuip
办理美国UNCC毕业证书制作北卡大学夏洛特分校假文凭定制Q微168899991做UNCC留信网教留服认证海牙认证改UNCC成绩单GPA做UNCC假学位证假文凭高仿毕业证GRE代考如何申请北卡罗莱纳大学夏洛特分校University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcript
2. Current and new challenges to economics
2
Pictures: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Flaticon.
Covid-19 still here
Cartel in construction industry,
construction prices rising
Saeima elections
next year
Santions to Belarus
Prices increasing, problems with
resources and supply chains
3. IEROBEŽOTA PIEEJAMĪBA
Source: Our World in data.
Covid-19 cases (7 day smoothed average,
per million people)
3
European countries are experiencing Delta outbreaks
Covid-19 deaths (7 day smoothed average,
per million people)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Africa Asia Australia
Europe Latvia North America
South America World
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
Feb-21
Mar-21
Apr-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Oct-21
Africa Asia Australia
Europe Latvia North America
South America World
4. 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
US recession,
9/11
War in Iraque,
SARS
Financial
crisis
Eurozone
debt crisis Brexit
Trade tensions between
US and China
COVID-19
pandemics
Source; IMF https://worlduncertaintyindex.com/data/, European Commision.
World uncertainity index (long term average= 100)
4
Economic sentiment close to normal, but uncertainity remains
Economic sentiment index in Latvia (reverse; long
term average = 100)
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020
Transition to
market economy
Russian
financial
crisis
Covid-19
Financial
crisis
problems with
Parex banka
Banka Baltija
bankruptcy
5. 84
88
92
96
100
104
108
112
2019 2020 2021 2022
USA
Developing countries
Eurozone
USA (previous forecast)
Developed countries
(previous forecast)
Eurozone (previous
forecast)
Souce: ECB March and September forecast for eurozone, IMF April and June forecast for developing countries, OECB March and September forecast for the USA
Real GDP (2019 = 100)
6
Strong recovery from crisis all around the world
Forecast
6. 0
50
100
150
200
250
EE BU LU CZ DK SE RO LT LV MT PL SK NL IE DE FI HU Sl AT HR CY ES FR BE PT IT GR
2019-Q4 2021-Q2
Source: Eurostat.
Govenment consolidated gross debt (% of GDP)
7
Due to crisis level of government debt increased all across the EU
7. ► LV debt in 2020 was 6680 euro
per capita (15K per employed).
► If spending continues as in 2020,
debt ceiling can be reached
already in a few years.
► Weaker debt and budgetary deficit
rules during pandemics.
► Low interest rates will not last
forever. At what cost can be the
debt refinanced?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Baseline scenario
If primary deficit at the level of that
in 2020
In Latvia we don't have much free space to increase the
government debt
Scenarios of Government debt
development in Latvia, % of GDP
Souce: Treasury of Latvia, IMF debt sustainability tool, Bank of Latvia calculations 8
-4.5
-6.7
-4.0
-2.2
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
2020 2021 F 2022 F 2023 F
Budget balance, % of GDP
8. 0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
MT PT EL FI FR SI IT NL AU CY BE IE ES LU SK DE LV EE LT
Source: Eurostat.
Eurozone inflation September 2021 (y-o-y, %)
9
Also there is pression on inflation rise in all eurozone countries
11. Inflation over the medium term close but below 2%
Inflation over the medium term 2%
► This new inflation target has symmetric approach.
► Long term negative deviation from inflation target is not acceptable, as economics is close to nominal interest
rate lower bound, there is a need for long term monetary intervention.
► During the transition period inflation can be above the target.
ECB strategy review – new inflation target
12
13. 50
70
90
110
t t+2 t+4 t+6 t+8 t+10t+12t+14t+16t+18t+20t+22
Manufacturing
Components of economic sentiment in Latvia
14
Economic sentiment in Latvia is close to pre-crisis level
40
60
80
100
120
t t+2 t+4 t+6 t+8 t+10t+12t+14t+16t+18t+20t+22
Services
50
70
90
110
t t+2 t+4 t+6 t+8 t+10t+12t+14t+16t+18t+20t+22
Consumers
50
70
90
110
t t+2 t+4 t+6 t+8 t+10t+12t+14t+16t+18t+20t+22
Trade
10
30
50
70
90
110
t t+2 t+4 t+6 t+8 t+10t+12t+14t+16t+18t+20t+22
Construction
2007 (June 2007 = 100)
2020 (January 2020 =
100)
Source: European Commision
14. -1.1
-7.3
5.5
1.5
0.5
2.6
-24
-20
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
2020 Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 2021Q1 Q2
Imports of goods and services
Exports of goods and services
Changes in inventories
Total gross fixed capital formation
Government consumption
Private consumption
GDP
Source: CSP
GDP comparable prices, q/q, %, sa and components (contrubutions, pp)
15
GDP grows faster than expected, expenditure side
components do not provide clear insight why
2021Q3
flash
+0.3
15. 5 000
5 500
6 000
6 500
7 000
7 500
8 000
8 500
9 000
9 500
10 000
2015
2016
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Deposits (actual data) Deposits (actual data till 2019 and tendency)
► Deposits additional to trend
during pandemics: 800
million euro
► Per person:
423 euro
=
► Consumption per HH
member per month**
423 euro
Source: Bank of Latvia, Bank of Latvia calculations. *Base scenario without pandemic influence made with ARIMA model. **HH budget survey 2019 (pre Covid-19 level).
16
Prudence and unrealized consumption continue to increase
bank deposits
Household deposit tendencies* and actual data (million euro, nsa)
16. Source: Bank of Latvia. *for comparision reasons changes of banking sector structure and one-off factors excluded.
New loans, flow million euro
17
More loans to households, cooperations not too eager to
borrow and invest
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
I
2019
IV VII X I
2020
IV VII X I
2021
IV VII
New contracts, Non financial cooperations (NFC)
New contracts, Households (HH)
-0.5
-3.0
2.1
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
I
2019
III V VII IX XI I
2020
III V VII IX XI I
2021
III V VII IX
NFC+HHs* NFC* HH*
Loans issued, y-o-y, %
17. Production capacity utilization (average per yer,
long term avearage=100)
Production capacity utilization high, to grow – investment is
needed
Source: Eurostat, European Commmision, Bank of Latvia calculations. *Q1-Q3 18
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021*
100
150
200
250
300
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Investment (comparable prices; 2000=100)
18. 80
90
100
110
120
130
140
-25
-15
-5
5
15
25
35
45
I
2019
III
V
VII
IX
XI
I
2020
III
V
VII
IX
XI
I
2021
III
V
VII
Other goods Vehicles
Machinery and electronic equipment Base metals and products
Wood products Chemical products
Agriculture and food Total exports (2019=100, right axis)
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
I
2019
III
V
VII
IX
XI
I
2020
III
V
VII
IX
XI
I
2021
III
V
VII
Transport Travel Other Total exports (%, right axis)
Source: Central Statistical Bureau, Bank of Latvia.
Merchandise exports (2019=100 right axis,
contributions by product, pp)
19
Merchandise exports continue the good run; exports of travel
and transport services still far from pre-pandemic level
Services' exports (2019=100 right axis, contributions
by type, pp)
19. Source: Central Statistical Bureau, Bank of Latvia.
Transportation (index; 2018 average = 100)
20
Only road transportation sector has reached 2018th levels;
cargos of coal and oil products keep decreasing
Cargos in ports (t; y/y; %) by cargo type
(contribution pp)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Avrg. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Jul Aug
2018 2019 2020 2021
Road freight turnover (t-km) Rail freight turnover (t-km)
Cargos loaded in ports (t) Airline passengers (people)
Coal cargos in ports (t)
9.9
-10.0
-8.5
-13.3
-29.8
-31.7
-29.6
-23.9
-9.7
-12.4
-8.8
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Q1
2019
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2020
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2021
Q2 Q3
Cereals Coal
Oil products Chemical products
Wood Metals
Others Cargoe in containers
Overall cargo
20. IEROBEŽOTA PIEEJAMĪBA
Active is mainly domestic tourism; Number of tourism this year has
decreased by 1/4th. Both export and import of these services – low
21
Number of guests
Source: CSP, Bank of Latvia
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
2019
janv
apr jūl okt 2020
janv
apr jūl okt 2021
janv
apr jūl
Hotels Guest houses Campings Number of tourists (y/y, % rhs)
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2019
Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 2020
Q1
Q2 Q3 Q4 2021
Q1
Q2
export import
Travel (million euro)
21. Source: CSP
Agriculture in weaker position this year. Dry summer and rains in
August. Grain produced in 2021 by 1/5th lower than year ago
22
Grain crops statistics in Latvia
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2019 2020 2021
Sown area, thsd ha Produced, thsd t Average productivity, cnt from 1 ha (rhs)
22. Source: CSP, “Arco Real Estate”, Zemesgrāmata.
Standard type apartment average price in Riga (EUR/m2), purchase agreements registered
23
Real estate in stronger positions - prices are rising & trade
activity rise as well
887
740
760
780
800
820
840
860
880
900
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
I
2019
III V VII IX XI I
2020
III V VII IX XI I
2021
III V VII IX
Purchases in Latvia
Purchases in Riga
Average price ("Arco Real Estate" - rhs)
23. Will the ceiling of capacity in construction be reached soon?
Source: CSP 24
Construction indixes (comparable prices, sa 2015=100)
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2002
Q1
Q3
2003
Q1
Q3
2004
Q1
Q3
2005
Q1
Q3
2006
Q1
Q3
2007
Q1
Q3
2008
Q1
Q3
2009
Q1
Q3
2010
Q1
Q3
2011
Q1
Q3
2012
Q1
Q3
2013
Q1
Q3
2014
Q1
Q3
2015
Q1
Q3
2016
Q1
Q3
2017
Q1
Q3
2018
Q1
Q3
2019
Q1
Q3
2020
Q1
Q3
2021
Q1
Production Employed Economically active population
24. 957
1188 1209 1252
1142
1898 1891
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
Other investments (basic budget, municipalities)
COVID-19 investments
EU fund investments
NextGenEU
RailBaltica
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2022 2023
RailBaltica
NextGenEU
Other EU funds
Basic budget, including COVID-19
Municipalities
Source: State Treasury, Bank of Latvia assumptions.
Government capital expenditures (million, EUR), cash
bases
25
Public investment growth in 2022 is linked to construction
projects
Assessment of contruction related projects (y/y;
million, EUR), cash bases
Additional investments in the economy
for a period of 2021-2023: PPP project
Ķekava bypass road (17.5 km); total
project costs approx. 250 million EUR
25. 0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
VII
2020
VIII IX X XI XII I
2021
II III IV V VI VII VIII IX
Unemployment rate Downtime subsidies Wage subsidies
Unemployment rate and state support for downtime and wage subsidies (% of economic active)
26
State support during previous Covid-19 wave prevented
increase in unemployment
Source: CSP, Valsts ieņēmumu dienests, Bank of Latvia
27. 28
Inflation increased mainly because of the cost of energy
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan
2019
Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
2020
Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
2021
Mar May Jul Sep
Unprocessed food Processed food Energy Other goods Services Y-o-y inflation
Inflation (y-o-y; %) and main components (contribution; pp)
Source: Eurostat.
28. -1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
I
2016
V IX I
2017
V IX I
2018
V IX I
2019
V IX I
2020
V IX I
2021
V
LV EE Lietuva Eurozone
LIDL
opening in
LT
► Energy costs, supply chains,
labour in agriculture - not in
favour for food prices
► Weak harvest (also in LV dry
summer, rainy August)
► Increase in demand, desire
to build up food
stock/savings
Food prices increase following global trends
HICP food prices, including tobacco & alcohol, y-o-y, %
Source: Eurostat 29
30. Inflation (%; y-o-y)
31
Inflation peak is expected around the turn of 2021 – 2022
-1.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
2020
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
2021
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
2022
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII
Headline inflation
Forecast June 2021
Forecast September 2021
Source: CSP, Bank of Latvia forecast
In 2021 on
average
2.8% y-o-y
32. June forecast September forecast
2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023
GDP comparable prices (sa,
y/y,%)
3.3 6.5 3.6 5.3 5.1 3.8
Inflation (HICP) (y/y, %) 2.0 2.9 2.0 2.8 4.0 2.7
Inflation (HICP excl. food &
energy) (y/y, %)
1.2 1.6 2.1 1.8 2.2 3.1
Unemployment (% of ec.active) 8.3 7.3 7.0 7.5 6.8 6.5
Average wage 6.9 5.7 5.4 8.9 7.5 5.5
Current account 0 0.1 0 -2.1 -0.5 -0.8
Budget balance (% of GDP) -9.9 -2.1 -0.8 -6.7 -4.0 -2.2
Government debt (% of GDP) 48.9 50.6 47.8 45.9 47.2 45.8
Forecasts of main indicators for Latvia
33
Source: Bank of Latvia June and September forecasts
33. World:
► New Covid-19 wave around the world, still the number of death is quite low.
► Global economic growth is strong, many forecasts have been revised upwards. Increase in demand & safety measures in harbors disrupt
supply chains. Problems with supply of raw materials, as the result prices are increasing.
► Strong economic growth and comeback of inflation creates debate about decreasing monetary supply, but there is a wish not to be too fast
to cease the support.
Latvia:
► GDP data have been better than expected, also flash indicator for Q3 shows increase. Prices (for consumers, manufacturers,
construction etc.) rise faster than before.
► Both registered and full unemployment is decreasing, wages are increasing, especially in public sector.
► Agriculture, Transportation and tourism not in a good position, but manufacturing, construction, real estate and trade are thriving.
► Tax income is higher than previously planned (especially VAT), budget deficit is smaller than estimated previously.
► But low rate of vaccination and rising number of infected sets new challenges for winter to come.
World has adapted new rules of the game, still question about prices
Summary:
34
34. Comments about economic issues and
newest statistic available at
www.makroekonomika.lv
P.S. Competition of Student Scientific Research Papers
is held by Bank of Latvia each year.
35
35. Please fill in the evaluation of the presentation
36
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