1) The document analyzes smallholder dairy farmers' perceptions of climate change impacts in Northern Malawi. 2) It finds that most farmers reported increased rainfall, but over a third perceived no change. Reduced water availability, disease outbreaks, and poorer pasture were linked to decreased milk production. 3) The study concludes that climate change negatively impacts livestock production and dairy farming in the region through effects on water, disease, and fodder, though farmers do not see climate change as significantly influencing their work. Improved breeds and alternative feeds are recommended.

1. The 5The 5t ht h
A l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i cA l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i c
Com m er ci al i zati on of L i v estock A gr i cu l tu r e i n A f
Chal l enges and oppor tu ni ti es
October 25-28, 2010.
THE PERCEIVED IMPACT OF CLIMATETHE PERCEIVED IMPACT OF CLIMATE
CHANGE ON SMALLHOLDER DAIRYCHANGE ON SMALLHOLDER DAIRY
PRODUCTION IN NORTHERN MALAWIPRODUCTION IN NORTHERN MALAWI
Victor Kasulo
Faculty of Environmental Sciences
Mzuzu University
Malawi

2. The 5The 5t ht h
A l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i cA l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i c
Com m er ci al i zati on of L i v estock A gr i cu l tu r e i n A f
Chal l enges and oppor tu ni ti es
October 25-28, 2010.
Outline
 Introduction
 Contribution of dairy farming to climate change
 Vulnerability of dairy farming to climate change
 Objectives
 Materials and Methods
 Data collection
 Data type
 Data analysis
 Results and Discussion
 Perceptions of respondents on change in rainfall
pattern over time
Effect of changes in the rainfall pattern on dairy
farming
 Conclusion
 Acknowledgement

3. The 5The 5t ht h
A l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i cA l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i c
Com m er ci al i zati on of L i v estock A gr i cu l tu r e i n A f
Chal l enges and oppor tu ni ti es
October 25-28, 2010.
Introduction
 Contribution of dairy farming to climate change
 The livestock sector contributes 18% of total
anthropogenic GHG emissions
 Global dairy production accounts for 4 percent of
the total anthropogenic GHG emissions

4. The 5The 5t ht h
A l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i cA l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i c
Com m er ci al i zati on of L i v estock A gr i cu l tu r e i n A f
Chal l enges and oppor tu ni ti es
October 25-28, 2010.
Introduction
 Vulnerability of dairy farming to climate
change
 Warmer and drier conditions increase the
likelihood of heat stress in cattle
 Changes in rainfall patterns affects pasture growth
 Droughts lead to water shortage
 Climate change affects disease occurrence
 Climate change increases the risk for
geographically restricted rare breed populations

5. The 5The 5t ht h
A l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i cA l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i c
Com m er ci al i zati on of L i v estock A gr i cu l tu r e i n A f
Chal l enges and oppor tu ni ti es
October 25-28, 2010.
Introduction
 Objective
Aanalyze the perceived impact of changes in rainfall
patterns on water availability, disease occurrences,
pasture production, and in turn on milk production by
smallholders farmers in Northern Malawi.

6. The 5The 5t ht h
A l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i cA l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i c
Com m er ci al i zati on of L i v estock A gr i cu l tu r e i n A f
Chal l enges and oppor tu ni ti es
October 25-28, 2010.
193,834 cattle
3,782 dairy cattle
700 dairy farmers

7. The 5The 5t ht h
A l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i cA l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i c
Com m er ci al i zati on of L i v estock A gr i cu l tu r e i n A f
Chal l enges and oppor tu ni ti es
October 25-28, 2010.
Materials and Methods
 Data Collection
 Baseline Survey
 Covered Mzuzu Agricultural Development
Division
 Conducted in the three districts of Mzimba
Rumphi, and Nkhata-Bay
 Involved 13 Extension Planning Areas
 Targeted 40% of dairy farmers

8. The 5The 5t ht h
A l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i cA l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i c
Com m er ci al i zati on of L i v estock A gr i cu l tu r e i n A f
Chal l enges and oppor tu ni ti es
October 25-28, 2010.
Materials and Methods
 Data Type
 Perceptions on change in rainfall pattern
 Impact of changes in rainfall pattern over:
Pasture production,
Disease occurrence,
Parasite occurrence,
Water availability and
Milk production.

9. The 5The 5t ht h
A l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i cA l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i c
Com m er ci al i zati on of L i v estock A gr i cu l tu r e i n A f
Chal l enges and oppor tu ni ti es
October 25-28, 2010.
Materials and Methods
 Data Analysis
 Descriptive statistics such as percentages and
frequencies (SPSS)
 Multi-nominal (logistic) regression model
 Categorical dependent variable = Milk
Production
 Categorical independent variables:
Water availability,
Disease occurrences, and
Pasture production

10. The 5The 5t ht h
A l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i cA l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i c
Com m er ci al i zati on of L i v estock A gr i cu l tu r e i n A f
Chal l enges and oppor tu ni ti es
October 25-28, 2010.
Results and Discussion
40
32
22
6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Increased Decreased Constant No idea
Rainfall pattern
Percentageofrespondents
Perceptions of respondents on change in
rainfall pattern over time

11. The 5The 5t ht h
A l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i cA l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i c
Com m er ci al i zati on of L i v estock A gr i cu l tu r e i n A f
Chal l enges and oppor tu ni ti es
October 25-28, 2010.
Effect of changes in the rainfall pattern on dairy farming
Rainfall pattern
Respondents (%)
Effect on dairy farming Increased Decreased Constant No idea
Increased
Pasture production 73.7 9.6 14.0 2.6
Disease occurrence 37.7 22.8 26.3 13.2
Parasite occurrence 35.1 21.9 30.7 12.3
Water availability 70.2 5.3 21.9 2.6
Milk production 30.7 19.3 12.3 37.7
Decreased
Pasture production 13.3 65.6 20.0 1.1
Disease occurrence 23.3 36.7 26.7 13.3
Parasite occurrence 20.0 43.3 30.0 6.7
Water availability 10.0 35.6 54.4 0.0
Milk production 16.7 34.4 18.9 30.0
Constant
Pasture production 42.9 12.7 42.9 1.6
Disease occurrence 23.8 34.9 27 14.3
Parasite occurrence 23.8 38.1 25.4 12.7
Water availability 34.9 7.9 49.2 7.9
Milk production 22.2 27.0 9.5 41.3

12. The 5The 5t ht h
A l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i cA l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i c
Com m er ci al i zati on of L i v estock A gr i cu l tu r e i n A f
Chal l enges and oppor tu ni ti es
October 25-28, 2010.
Effect of changes in the rainfall pattern on dairy farming
Change in
Milk
Production
Variable B Std.
Error
Wald Sig. Exp
(B)
95% Confidence
Interval for Exp (B)
Lower
Bound
Upper
Bound
Decrease Intercept -0.821 0.390 4.425 0.035
Water = 0 1.657 0.709 5.465 0.019 5.244 1.307 21.043
Water =1 1.842 0.622 8.768 0.003 6.309 1.864 21.351
Disease =0 -0.676 0.531 1.620 0.203 0.508 0.179 1.441
Disease = 1 -0.420 0.603 0.485 0.486 0.657 0.201 2.144
Pasture = 0 1.427 0.617 5.352 0.021 4.167 1.244 13.964
Pasture = 1 0.246 0.611 0.162 0.687 1.279 0.386 4.233

13. The 5The 5t ht h
A l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i cA l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i c
Com m er ci al i zati on of L i v estock A gr i cu l tu r e i n A f
Chal l enges and oppor tu ni ti es
October 25-28, 2010.
Effect of changes in the rainfall pattern on dairy farming
(cont.)
Change in
Milk
Production
Variable B Std.
Error
Wald Sig. Exp
(B)
95% Confidence
Interval for Exp
(B)
Lower
Bound
Upper
Bound
Constant Intercept -1.974 0.578 11.670 0.001
Water = 0 -0.326 1.048 0.097 0.756 0.722 0.093 5.630
Water = 1 2.095 0.674 9.660 0.002 8.123 2.168 30.432
Disease = 0 0.387 0.688 0.316 0.574 1.472 0.383 5.666
Disease = 1 1.437 0.710 4.092 0.043 4.207 1.046 16.926
Pasture = 0 1.063 0.724 2.159 0.142 2.896 0.701 11.958
Pasture = 1 -0.654 0.709 0.850 0.357 0.520 0.130 2.088

14. The 5The 5t ht h
A l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i cA l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i c
Com m er ci al i zati on of L i v estock A gr i cu l tu r e i n A f
Chal l enges and oppor tu ni ti es
October 25-28, 2010.
Conclusion
 Farmers in the study area do not consider climate
change as having any significant influence on
dairy farming.
 Climate change has negative effects o on
livestock production in general and dairy
production in particular.
 Need further studies in the vulnerability and
adaptation of smallholder dairy farmers to
climate change in the area.
 Need for development and utilisation of
improved breeds and alternative sources of
feed.

15. The 5The 5t ht h
A l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i cA l l A fr i ca Confer ence on A nim al A gr i c
Com m er ci al i zati on of L i v estock A gr i cu l tu r e i n A f
Chal l enges and oppor tu ni ti es
October 25-28, 2010.
Acknowledgement
We thank the Department for International
Development (DFID) through the Development
Partnership for Higher Education for funding
this research.