36. Summary
Motivation:
• Constraining future projections using observations
– Influenced by what part of observing warming is forced and what is
unforced variability
– Important for baselines and understanding near‐term & long‐term IPCC
projections
Periods of warming & cooling (or faster & slower warming):
• Have distinct spatial structures that depend on timescale
– ENSO then Pacific (Inter‐)Decadal Variability then Atlantic Multidecadal
Variability
– Relative prominence of PDV and AMV depend on whether an
estimated forced signal is removed, to leave an estimate of unforced
variability (PDO and AMO)
This work was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council
[NERC, grant number NE/N006348/1, part of the SMURPHS project]