Technology startup Play The Future developed a mobile prediction game in which users predict trending events and get rewarded for accuracy. Parisa Foster explains Play The Future’s unique predictive gameplay, discusses the challenges of a groundbreaking project, and reveals emerging insights derived from its data about how people make predictions.
18. The initial calculation for numerical....and its problems
|outcome value - predicted value|
% accuracy = 100% - x 100%
outcome value
Friday, 6 October, 17
19. The revised calculation for numerical input
|outcome value - predicted value|
% accuracy = 100% - x 100%
range max - range min
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20. Slider: based on position...much simpler!
Position % accuracy
1 100
2 0
For 2 choices:
Position % accuracy
1 100
2 85.7
3 71.4
4 57.1
5 42.9
6 28.6
7 14.3
8 0
For 8 choices:
Friday, 6 October, 17
24. Results Dr. Tim Chartier’s
Research Team
Tournament Winner
Angela O.
Which team will win the NCAA Men’s Division Tournament? North Carolina Gonzaga Gonzaga
How many total points will be scored in the final NCAA
Tournament game?
136 132 130
In the final tournament game, how many points will the highest
scoring player score?
22 22 22
In MM:SS, how long will the NCAA.com video of Saturday’s Dunks
of the Day be?
00:56 1:03 1:03
At 13:00 ET on Saturday, what % of people on NCAA.com will think
Oregon will win vs. NC?
58% 46% 47%
In °F, what will the temperature be in Phoenix, AZ at 11ET on
Sunday?
57° 67° 67°
What will the point difference be at the end of the year’s NCAA
championship game?
6 6 6
How many combined Twitter followers will this year’s NCAA
finalists have at 11 ET, Sunday?
702,756 689,999 690,000
Who will be named the NCAA Tournament’s Most Outstanding
Player?
Other (Joel Berry II) Nigel Williams-Goss Nigel Williams-Goss
In MM:SS, what will the time on the clock be when the last 3-
pointer is scored?
17:34 16:45 16:45
How many total steals & blocks will Monday’s NCAA Championship
winner have?
15 12 12
What will the difference in field goals made be between the
winners of each semifinal game?
4 5 5
Friday, 6 October, 17
25. “Usually, the person who wins the whole thing won’t be an
expert. Why? Experts will go with the best odds on many
items and life involves both odds but then luck. If you have
thousands or even hundreds of entries, often someone who
has randomness can win. Why? They have some skill, as
they have to, but they capture the randomness through luck
on their own. There is skill though in knowing how much
luck to integrate—unless you just got exceedingly lucky!”
Dr. Tim Chartier
Friday, 6 October, 17
31. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Other
Gut feeling
Statistical models
Calculator
Ask/collaborate with a friend
Expert's prediction (when available)
Online research
Second hint
First hint
SuperFuturists
Futurists
Tools or methods used to accurately predict
Friday, 6 October, 17
32. Is prediction a skill learned over time?
Friday, 6 October, 17
37. If it can be measured, it can be played
The crowd isn’t wise; but a select group are
Practice makes (almost) perfect
We predict you’ll remember:
Friday, 6 October, 17