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What talents should the hydrogeologist of the 2030’s have, to be successful, in a rapidly changing world? Shammy Puri Secretary General, International Association of Hydrogeologists Chair, IAH TARM Commission Co Chair UNESCO-ISARM Programme University of Warsaw Department of Geology World Water Day Lecture  March 2011
Baseline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Structure of the lecture ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Changes “the class of 1970”
What its about.. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Present day focus.. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Past methods & future needs
Uncertain & complex ?
What do we perceive..?
the evidence is there
Changes are needed .. ,[object Object],[object Object]
Point of reference..?
How could hydro’s fit in?
In-situ gasification - aquifers
IAH’s Forward Look ,[object Object],[object Object]
Krakow Declaration follow up ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
New directions… Krakow Declaration Follow up Universities Government partnership Intnl Prog New Directions in the application of ECOHYDROGEOLOGY To resolve forthcoming environmental problems stimulated by global climate variability Through education of experts to meet the challenges of the future needs – implement major water & ecohydrogeological investments  Attract trainees from EECCA to undergo a new programme of education Responding to needs & priorities in UNESCO IHP VIIth & VIIIth Phase  EU Water Initiative –focus on EECCA UN ECE’s  Environment for Europe Process
Coal Sector of Ukraine
Conceptual Approach UNDERGROUND MINING HEATING POWER spoil tips sediments polluted ground water contaminated soil Aim: Production cost reduction & achieving environmental gains  fugitive gas emissions - methane solid waste - tailings liquid waste – water slurry blown dust
Mines in the Donbass region
Business as Usual analysis
Deconvoluting the components
BaU Analyser Analyse & forecast coal demand from 2010 to 2030 Analyse & forecast market price of coal Analyse & forecast cost of production Calculate  total cost  of production  ,[object Object],[object Object],If profit margins become under pressure, what  cost reductions can be made ? Totally revise data collection & management Review & analyse Production costs e.g. costs due to poor environmental management  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Optimise the costs of by-products Capture & utilisation of methane that is vented Business as Usual – analysis for the period 2010 - 2030 CAPITAL + LABOUR + TECHNOLOGY = PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH & EFFICIENCY
Base data from 220 mines Projected production Forecast costs of production Analysis from 161 mines
BaU model parameters 1.01 Ann rate of change of the market price from 2010 to 2030 …. Progressively increased to rise at the rate of 1% per annum – market price would rise to 518 UAH / T in 2030 1 Adjusted market price from 2009 to 2010, as an initial change  (1 = no change) 0.96 Ann rate of reduction in the cost of production from 2010 to 2030 – production cost in 2030 reduces to 283 UAH / T – 4% per annum assumed 1.02 Adjusted cost of production from 2009 to 2010, as an initial change (2% hike in costs)  1.03 Select the rate of increase of coal production from 2011 to 2030 – 3% per annum assumed
Cost reductions for  environmental gains
Chaotic investments  give no benefits
Transformation is possible !! Settling basins Storage and transport of tailings Area for re-vegetation Water management into vegetated area Water features
Sector reform process Restructuring of the Coal Sector of Ukraine – transformation from loss making State owned agencies to a Regulatory Agency & independent economic operators involved in mining, & its service industry Wind down the operation of the Ministry* – Three new independent Agencies with separate responsibilities established by Presidential Decree Regulator; Self governing Coal Authority reporting to the Cabinet of Ministers  Coal Development Fund (CDF)– financed through concessional funds (e.g. IBRD / EBRD), with all usual safeguards Mine Closure & Environmental Remediation Agency All subordinate Agencies of former Ministry to be hived off or made into 100% commercial companies – includes Mining Associations, Design Institutes & quasi regulatory bodies eg RESPIRATOR, etc Licensing & audit functions only Loans to viable enterprises and profitable Mine IEO Redundant mines transferred to MCER for closure All Mine Associations converted to IEO with 51% shares with government; 49% with the Association –transparent Annual Reporting ; coal mining will be in response to Sector strategies & licensing requirements analysed through tools such as the Business as Usual approach – (see Vol. IV, Comp E). Eventually majority ownership transferred to IEO. Existing, viable Mine Associations re-licensed automatically for 1 st  2 years, then   re-apply for a new term, based on compliance to licensing requirements 18 months 12 months 10 year operational programme for mining & remediation 24 months All research institutes, design institutes, etc operating as independent institutes servicing the Coal Sector, on open competitive basis * NOTE  On the 9 th  Dec  2010 by Order no 1085/2010, the MoCI was transferred to the Ministry of Fuel & Energy – as a Department responsible for coal mining. However, the key changes suggested in this diagram still apply to the Sector.  A 10 year programme of mine closure & remediation implemented according to set standards as recommended in Comp E, Volume IV; financing through Concessional loan funds, commercialised operations & trading the spent assets of bought closed mines; orderly disposal of assets or divestments to interested & viable operators
Summary: what to do ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
In the future…. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Concluding remarks ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Thanks you for your attention ! Questions? Contact:  [email_address] www.unesco.org/water/isarm   www.iah.org/isarm

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Uni wwa deptgeol_wwd_lecture

  • 1. What talents should the hydrogeologist of the 2030’s have, to be successful, in a rapidly changing world? Shammy Puri Secretary General, International Association of Hydrogeologists Chair, IAH TARM Commission Co Chair UNESCO-ISARM Programme University of Warsaw Department of Geology World Water Day Lecture March 2011
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4. Changes “the class of 1970”
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7. Past methods & future needs
  • 9. What do we perceive..?
  • 11.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17. New directions… Krakow Declaration Follow up Universities Government partnership Intnl Prog New Directions in the application of ECOHYDROGEOLOGY To resolve forthcoming environmental problems stimulated by global climate variability Through education of experts to meet the challenges of the future needs – implement major water & ecohydrogeological investments Attract trainees from EECCA to undergo a new programme of education Responding to needs & priorities in UNESCO IHP VIIth & VIIIth Phase EU Water Initiative –focus on EECCA UN ECE’s Environment for Europe Process
  • 18. Coal Sector of Ukraine
  • 19. Conceptual Approach UNDERGROUND MINING HEATING POWER spoil tips sediments polluted ground water contaminated soil Aim: Production cost reduction & achieving environmental gains fugitive gas emissions - methane solid waste - tailings liquid waste – water slurry blown dust
  • 20. Mines in the Donbass region
  • 21. Business as Usual analysis
  • 23.
  • 24. Base data from 220 mines Projected production Forecast costs of production Analysis from 161 mines
  • 25. BaU model parameters 1.01 Ann rate of change of the market price from 2010 to 2030 …. Progressively increased to rise at the rate of 1% per annum – market price would rise to 518 UAH / T in 2030 1 Adjusted market price from 2009 to 2010, as an initial change (1 = no change) 0.96 Ann rate of reduction in the cost of production from 2010 to 2030 – production cost in 2030 reduces to 283 UAH / T – 4% per annum assumed 1.02 Adjusted cost of production from 2009 to 2010, as an initial change (2% hike in costs) 1.03 Select the rate of increase of coal production from 2011 to 2030 – 3% per annum assumed
  • 26. Cost reductions for environmental gains
  • 27. Chaotic investments give no benefits
  • 28. Transformation is possible !! Settling basins Storage and transport of tailings Area for re-vegetation Water management into vegetated area Water features
  • 29. Sector reform process Restructuring of the Coal Sector of Ukraine – transformation from loss making State owned agencies to a Regulatory Agency & independent economic operators involved in mining, & its service industry Wind down the operation of the Ministry* – Three new independent Agencies with separate responsibilities established by Presidential Decree Regulator; Self governing Coal Authority reporting to the Cabinet of Ministers Coal Development Fund (CDF)– financed through concessional funds (e.g. IBRD / EBRD), with all usual safeguards Mine Closure & Environmental Remediation Agency All subordinate Agencies of former Ministry to be hived off or made into 100% commercial companies – includes Mining Associations, Design Institutes & quasi regulatory bodies eg RESPIRATOR, etc Licensing & audit functions only Loans to viable enterprises and profitable Mine IEO Redundant mines transferred to MCER for closure All Mine Associations converted to IEO with 51% shares with government; 49% with the Association –transparent Annual Reporting ; coal mining will be in response to Sector strategies & licensing requirements analysed through tools such as the Business as Usual approach – (see Vol. IV, Comp E). Eventually majority ownership transferred to IEO. Existing, viable Mine Associations re-licensed automatically for 1 st 2 years, then re-apply for a new term, based on compliance to licensing requirements 18 months 12 months 10 year operational programme for mining & remediation 24 months All research institutes, design institutes, etc operating as independent institutes servicing the Coal Sector, on open competitive basis * NOTE On the 9 th Dec 2010 by Order no 1085/2010, the MoCI was transferred to the Ministry of Fuel & Energy – as a Department responsible for coal mining. However, the key changes suggested in this diagram still apply to the Sector. A 10 year programme of mine closure & remediation implemented according to set standards as recommended in Comp E, Volume IV; financing through Concessional loan funds, commercialised operations & trading the spent assets of bought closed mines; orderly disposal of assets or divestments to interested & viable operators
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33. Thanks you for your attention ! Questions? Contact: [email_address] www.unesco.org/water/isarm www.iah.org/isarm