This document summarizes preliminary results from modeling Ukraine's potential role in the EU's hydrogen strategy and plans for decarbonization following damage from the Russian invasion. The modeling uses the TIMES-Ukraine energy system model to analyze scenarios where Ukraine exports 0-20% of the EU's planned hydrogen imports in 2030. Initial results suggest hydrogen export could drive increased nuclear and wind electricity generation. Marginal export prices may increase with larger export quantities. Hydrogen pipelines appear the lowest cost export option. Further analysis is needed on technology costs and resource availability.

1. A Semeniuk1a, A Schledorn2b, O Diachuk1, R Podolets1, O Balyk3, MZ Jacobson4, S Petrović5
1 Institute for Economics and Forecasting, National Academy of Science of Ukraine; 2 Danish Technical University;
3 Columbia University, Center on Global Energy Policy; 4 Stanford University; 5 Danish Energy Agency.
Ukrainian post-war energy system recovery
& EU hydrogen partnership
Work in progress
asemeniuk.and.i@gmail.com
bamosc@dtu.dk

2. Agenda
• Research background
• Methodological approach
• Preliminary results section
• Preliminary insights
• Next steps
2

3. Background: EU hydrogen strategy
3
EU H2 target: 10 Mt domestic
production + 10 Mt imports by 2030
Possible suppliers in North Africa &
Eastern Europe

4. Background: Damages by russian invasion
• Thermal power plants – information is classified or uncertain and needs clarification
• Renewable sources – 1.5 GW of large solar PPs and 0.3 GW of rooftop solar
• Kakhovka HPP – certainly destroyed
• Central heating plants capacity reductions – estimated at the level of 10%
• Industry – 40% reduction in Iron and Steel and 30% in all other industries
• Building stock reductions – 3.3% for single houses and 5.9% for multiappartment, 6.4%
commercial and public buildings
• Transport – 105k of private cars destroyed, up to 10% reduction for other segments
• GDP decreases for 29.1% in 2022 followed by +2.0% in 2023, +4.3% in 2024, and +6.4%
in 2025 (NBU), 2026-2030 +5% per year (WB), 2031 onwards up to 2.5% (own calc.)
4

5. Scope
5
Research interests
The role of H2 exports in Ukraine’s
post-war decarbonisation
Competitiveness of Ukraine as H2 supplier
Modelling tasks in TIMES-Ukraine
H2 producing, transporting technologies &
export targets
War damages: capacity & demand reductions

6. Scenario definition
6
Share of UA in EU H2 sourcing
Net-zero
ambition
level 0% 10% 20%
1%
Net-zero (2050)
Least-cost development

7. TIMES-Ukraine model
7
Mining
Imports
Biofuels production
VRES
...
Primary energy
Residential
Commercial
Agriculture
Industry
Transport
...
Final energy
Exports
Power plants
District heating
CHP
Power-to-X
Conversion
Refineries
...
Deep modelling of Ukrainian energy
system
Imports to/from EU, Belarus and Russia
Solved in steps of 10-years with 5-year
overlaps
64 time slices/year

8. (Very) preliminary results
Marginal H2 export prices
8
Price variability seems
driven by electricity
generation costs
H2 export marginals increase
with
larger quantities

9. 9
(Very) preliminary results
H2 transport technologies
H2 pipelines seem least cost export
option
To-do: retrofitting of NG
pipelines
Assumed transport distance (and so
costs) could impact export
(marginal) prices

10. 10
(Very) preliminary results
H2 production
Alkaline electrolysers produce
exported H2
Biomass steam reforming
supplies domestic demand

11. 11
(Very) preliminary results
Electricity consumption for H2 production
In 2025 the IPS may not yet be
ready to supply 20% of planned
green H2 import as we see grid
ELC involved
Wind power leads in
scenarios with large H2
export quantities

12. 12
(Very) preliminary results
Electricity mix
Wind competes with nuclear power
H2 exports drive electricity generation
This competition could be highly
sensitive towards assumed capacity
costs and (wind power) resource
limits

13. 13
(Very) preliminary results
H2 consumption
H2 originated from biomass
might be feasible even without
any emission restrictions
Its role signifies in achieving
net-zero emissions but far
from being crucial

14. 14
(Very) preliminary results
Primary energy supply
Net-zero ambitions replace coal
with RES
Under H2 exports, more
nuclear energy could remain
in the Ukrainian system

15. 15
(Very) preliminary results
Final energy consumption
Energy efficiency and sector
coupling lead to lower
consumption in NZE
Biofuels dominate among
RES, with significant portions
of biomethane being used in
RSD, COM and freight
transport

16. 16
(Very) preliminary results
CO2eq. emissions
Negative emissions are provided
by bioenergy PPs with CCS
The power and heat sector is
the first to be decarbonized
after 2035

17. (Very) preliminary insights
17
H2 export leads to higher and differently fuelled electricity
generation, where nuclear power from new big and small units
substitutes wind power dedicated to supply electrolyzers.
Larger H2 export quantities might
increase marginal export costs.
*the results presented are the opinions of the authors and not their organizations
Under the most ambitious 20% NZE scenario, there is 27 GW
of alkaline electrolyzers consumed capacity in 2050.
Omitting the electricity consumed for H2 production,
20% scenarios are the ones with the lowest total
electricity generation among other respective scenarios.

18. Next steps
18
Open modelling tasks
Retrofitting NG pipelines
Refinement of power-to-X representation
Representation of VRES variability at 64 time
slices/year
...

19. Next steps
19
Analyse results sensitivity towards
technology costs & resource
availability
Open modelling tasks H2 transport CAPEX
Wind power potential
Wind power cost vs. nuclear
...
Biomass potential

20. Thank you for
attention!
20