Presentation I made for a lecture, which summarizes the main events of the Crisis highlighting, in particular, the role of the EU and other International Organizations in attempting to solve the situation.

1. The Ukrainian Crisis
2013-2015
1The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

2. Events
EuroMaidan
Annexation of Crimea
Conflict in Donbass
Downing of MH17
Actors
Russia+Ukraine
Russia+USA
Russia+the EU+other Ios
(G8, NATO, COE)
Crisis or CrisES?
Combination of many different
2
The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

3. November
2013- February
2014
February 2014-
March 2014
April 2014-
Present
July 2014
EuroMaidan
Annexation of
Crimea
Conflict in
Donbass
Downing of
MH17
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The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

4. EuroMaidan Begins
November 21, Ukrainian President Victor
Yanukovych backs out from the negotiations
for a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade
Agreement with the EU
Instead, he resumes negotiations with the
Russian Federation, for an Eurasian Custom
Union, together with KAZAKHSTAN &
BELARUS
In Kiev, people start protesting in the main
square, Maidan Nazaleznosti
4
The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

5. Clashes with the police went on for
months…
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The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

6. 6
The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

7.  On February 18, 2014 EuroMaidan
experiences its deadliest day (100 casualties)
 There is an attempt to find a compromise
between the government and the opposition,
at the presence of:
– Russian President’s Special Envoy
– France, Germany and Poland’s Foreign Ministers (on behalf of the EU)
• But before the Agreement could be
implemented, Yanukovych flees from Kyiv
and takes refuge in Rostov-on-Don (Russia).
EuroMaidan: the developments
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The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

8. This generates a great degree of
chaos because
Kyiv
Removes
Yanukovych from his
presidential role
Appoints Turchynov as
temporary President
Moscow
Claims that the
Constitutional
procedures for the
President’s removal
were not respected
Still considers
Yanukovych as the
legitimate President
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The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

9. November
2013- February
2014
February 2014-
March 2014
April 2014-
Present
July 2014
EuroMaidan
Annexation of
Crimea
Conflict in
Donbass
Downing of
MH17
9
The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

10. The facts 1/2:
 Right after Yanukovych was deposed, pro-
Russian citizens started to mobilize in
Crimea
 There were many reasons for this:
– The new President, Turchynov was pro-EU
– The new Government had repealed a controversial Law on the Principles of
State Language Policy that gave Russian (and other minority languages) the
status of co-official language together with Ukrainian Turchinov later blocked
this repeal in a conciliatory attempt
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The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

11. The facts 2/2:
 Soon, local self-defense units were
established, who:
– took control of governmental buildings, airports, roads, TV and radio stations
– appointed a new local Leader, Sergeiy Aksenov
– drafted a Declaration of Independence from Ukraine and indicted a Referendum
to approve it on March 16, 2014
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The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

12. How was this possible?
These “self-defense units” were backed by
thousands of little green
men(http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26
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The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015
- Military gears
- No distinctive signs
- Russian accents
- Russian plaques on
their lorries
- - Russian arms

13. Reactions
 On March 1, 2014 President Putin
submitted a request to the Council of the
Federation (Russia’s Upper House) to
deploy troops to Crimea “to restore peace”
and to protect “Russian compatriots” (but in
fact Ukraine claimed the presence of
Russian troops since February 24).
 The UNSC met 5 times in March to talk
about the situation in Crimea. The
discussion was extremely polarized
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The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

14. • Those Little Green Men are Russian
soldiers
• Russia has violated the terms of the
Black Sea Fleet Status of Forces
Agreements
• Russia has violated the territorial
sovereignty of Ukraine
• Russia has breached the
prohibition of the use of force
and thus committed an act of
aggression
• The Referendum should not be
recognized as valid
• Inconsistent approach and several legal
justifications
• 1) They are not Russian soldiers
• 2) They are Russian soldiers but they were
already in Crimea according to the lease
Agreement between Russia and Ukraine
• 4) We intervened because Yanukovych and
Aksenov asked us to restore peace in
Crimea (intervention by invitation)
• 5) We intervened to protect the rights of
our soldiers, of the Russian-speaking
population in Crimea and to allow “our
compatriots” to express their free will
through the referendum (protection of
nationals abroad and right to self-
determination)
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The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

15. …
 Russia vetoed a draft UNSC Resolution on the
Territorial Integrity of Ukraine (March 15,
2014)
 The Referendum for the independence took place on
March 16, 2014 and the official results reported
 After a formal request of accession to the Federation,
President Putin declares Crimea as part of Russia on
March 18, 2014.
96% in favor of secession and
reunion with Russia
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The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

16. Valid?
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The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

17. Consequences
 Lack of recognition (int’l law principle ex
injuria jus non oritur)
 UNGA Resolution reaffirming Territorial
Integrity of Ukraine ( 68/262, March
24, 2014)
– 100 countries in favor; 11 against; 58 abstained; 24 absent (text:
http://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/68/PV.80)
• First round of sanctions from the USA
and the EU
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The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

18. November
2013- February
2014
February 2014-
March 2014
April 2014-
Present
July 2014
EuroMaidan
Annexation of
Crimea
Conflict in
Donbass
Downing of
MH17
18
The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

19. What is Donbass?
South-Eastern Region of Ukraine of Russian-
speaking majority.
19
The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

20. Facts
 Prompted by Crimea’s annexation, pro-
Russian separatists proclaimed the
independence of two Republics:
– Donetsk People’s Republic
– Luhansk People’s Republic
 They started taking control of
governmental buildings and to build
barricades around them in several cities
 Held unrecognized referendums in May
Alliance of
Novorossiya
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The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

21. Warfare
 Ukraine’s military operations against the
rebels start in April 2014.
 Many Neo-Nazis extremists are fighting
alongside Ukraine (mainly Svoboda and the
Right Sector)
 On the other hand, Russia is believed to be
supporting the rebels through arms and
ammunitions, under the guise of
humanitarian aid.
– New round of sanctions
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The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

22. Key moments
May 2, 2014 the Odessa
“Massacre”
May-June 2014 Bombing of
Mariupol
May 2014; September 2014- January
2015 Battles of Donetsk Airport
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The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

23. Some figures:
Total number of casualties:
8050
Total number of refugees,
IDPs or asylum seekers:
1,075,736 (according to
UNHCR)
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The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

24. November
2013- February
2014
February 2014-
March 2014
April 2014-
Present
July 2014
EuroMaidan
Annexation of
Crimea
Conflict in
Donbass
Downing of
MH17
24
The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

25. MH17
 A Malaysia Airline Flight (MH17) headed from
Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur is shot near the
village of Grabove (held by the rebels)
 All 298 passengers are dead, the majority of
them are of Dutch nationality
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The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

26. Whose fault?
 Ukrainian President Poroshenko calls it a
“terroristic act”; US President Obama blames a
missile shot from the rebel-controlled territory and
holds that Russia’s help was crucial; Russia’s
President Putin blames Ukraine.
 The UNSC adopts a Resolution on July 21, 2014
to condemn the attack and demand access to
crash site (text:
 An inquiry commission is set up to clarify the
facts. It is led by the Netherlands, as the country
with the highest number of victims.
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The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

27. …
 Yet another round of sanctions is issued
against Russia at the end of July 2014.
 In July 2015, Russia vetoed a UNSC
Resolution to set up an international
Tribunal.
 In October 2015, the inquiry commission
issued its report.
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The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

28. Report of the Inquiry
Commission
 The MH17 was shot by a BUK Missile
» It is owned both by Russian and
Ukrainian armies
» Howevever, according to the
State-owned company Almaz-
Antey that specific model has
not been produced by Russia
since 1999
» The report has not established
liability. This will be done,
instead, by a criminal
investigation by a Joint
Investigation Team (JIT) to
be concluded in 2016.
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The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

29. What have other actors done in
reaction to the crisis?
29
Imposed sanctions
targeting:
Individuals Companies Russia as a State
• Putin’s inner circle
• Members of the
Government and the
Military (both
Ukrainian and
Russian)
• Banking and
financial institutions
• Energy-related
companies
• Defense sector
The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

30. Other countries joined
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Non-EU countries that have introduced sanctions
EU countries that have introduced sanctions
The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

31. 31
Some targets…
The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

32. Material scope of restrictive
measures
Embargo on arms
and related
material
Prohibition on
exports of dual
use goods and
technology for
military use
Assets freezes
Visa bans Travel bans Other restrictions
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The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

33. Motives behind the adoption
of restrictive measures
• “[…] certain persons responsible for actions which undermine or threaten
the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine,
including actions on the future status of any part of the territory
which are contrary to the Ukrainian Constitution, and natural or legal
persons, entities or bodies associated with them.”
(COUNCIL REGULATION (EU) No 269/2014 of 17 March 2014)
• “[…] actions and policies of persons including persons who have asserted
governmental authority in the Crimean region without the authorization
of the Government of Ukraine that undermine democratic processes and
institutions in Ukraine; threaten its peace, security, stability, sovereignty,
and territorial integrity; and contribute to the misappropriation of its assets,
constitute an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security
and foreign policy of the United States.”
(EXECUTIVE ORDER (US President) No. 13660)
33

34. How has Russia responded?
It has imposed
countersanctions,
including an embargo
on food and
agricultural products
coming from the EU,
the USA and some
other sanctioning
countries
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The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

35. What have sanctions
accomplished so far?
35
They have
damaged
Russia’s
economy and
made the
ruble
collapse
They have
pushed
Russia to
strengthen
ties with
other
countries
They have
severely
damaged EU
economy
with a loss of
€100 billion
They have NOT attained
the goal they were
adopted for

36. Besides sanctions, what’s the role
of the EU and other IOs in solving
the crisis?
 March 21, 2014 OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation
in Europe) establishes Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine
 April 17, 2014 first attempt to solve the crisis through Geneva
Talks (EU, USA, Ukraine and Russia)
 July 24, 2014 deployment of OSCE observers to the Russian
Checkpoints of Donetsk and Gukovo
 September 5, 2014 First Minsk Protocol signed to implement
ceasefire; September 19, 2014 a Memorandum was added
 February 11, 2015 Second Minsk Protocol signed, to implement
immediate ceasefire
 Ceasefire has never been fully
implemented so far
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The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

37. Diplomatic Measures from other
IOs
Halting of EU-Russia cooperation
projects on visa matters
Suspension of Russia’s
Membership from G8 (now, G7)
Suspension of Russia’s voting
rights in Council of Europe (COE)
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The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015

38. More Questions?
francesca.ginexi@studbocconi.it
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The Ukrainian Crisis: 2013- 2015