1. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 20,000 for the first time on optimism about Trump's agenda. However, possible trade wars with China and Mexico could dampen economic growth.
2. Trump has accused the media of biased and fake reporting against his administration. He has waged war against news organizations for their coverage of his inauguration crowd size.
3. Samsung's operating profits increased 50% in the fourth quarter despite recalls of the Note 7, demonstrating the benefits of a diversified business strategy.
1. @UY
Trump Bull?
Published on January 28, 2017
7-7 Market Highlights (January 22 - 28, 2017)
Market emotion runs high on optimism. DOW hits 20,000 on Wednesday moving along with
Trump agenda, and also Europe and Asia joined the run. And many market analysts say it may
be wise to be invested in the market at least for next two quarters. But there are possible trade
wars with China and Mexico brewing that may dampen the euphoria. Also Trump’s belief that
strong dollar is also contributing to the trade imbalance, and he wants weaker dollar.
Trump is not only waging global trade war but he is also grappling with the media for biased and
fake reporting of his administration. Is there truth to Trump’s claim? Biased media?
Diversify your products and or services. Do not put all your eggs in one basket. Samsung’s 50%
profit report for 4QTR in spite of Note 7 fires and total recalls remind us the importance of a
strong diversified business strategy. Lesson learned well here.
Enjoy the Lunar New Year, the Year of the Roosters…
Market closed on Friday January 27, 2017 at: DOW-20,093.78; S&P-2,294.69; NASDAQ-
5,660.78; Gold-$1,191.00; Oil-$53.20; and 10-Year Bond-2.486%...
Here are the highlights of the fourth week of 2017:
2. 1. Dow Hits 20,000 on Trump
Optimism. Fear Index (CBOE Volatility Index, VIX) down to 10.8, once widely
considered the best gauge of fear in the market. Lowest since 2014. And the U.S. equities closed
at all-time highs on Wednesday after a series of executive orders from President Donald Trump
increased bullish sentiment on Wall Street, while financials outperformed. The Dow Jones
industrial average broke above 20,000 for the first time, rising about 150 points as Boeing,
Goldman Sachs and IBM contributed the most gains. "Clearly, this has become a buy-high-sell-
higher market with the Dow breaking above 20,000," said Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist
at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. At furious pace, first week, President Trump is moving along
with his agenda." "More importantly, earnings have been on the cusp of increasing, and that's
going to be key to hold these valuations," Sandven said. Uncertainty of Trump has been replaced
by the literal statements.
2. Double your money in 2017? Stocks entered the New Year
having made an aggressive rally as the market adjusted to new President Donald Trump. The
renewed interest in a budding economy and a focus on strengthening the American domestic
economy makes way for a new wave of stocks that are likely to double some say. And it is
beginning to look like it could be a banner year for the market. So which ones are going to be
winners this year? According to analysts following stocks may out perform others and may yield
doubling of the current price: Atwood Oceanics (ATW), Fifth Third Bancorp, (FITB),
Caterpillar, (CAT), Harley-Davidson, (HOG), Huntington Bancshares, (HBAN),
Chesapeake Energy, (CHK), FireEye, Ticker: (FEYE). Take a closer look at them if these pose
opportunity for your portfolio. You decide.
3. Trump Wages War Against the
Media. President Trump used his first full day in office to wage war on the media,
accusing news organizations of lying about the size of his inauguration crowd as Saturday’s huge
protests served notice that a vocal and resolute opposition would be a hallmark of his
presidency. With Americans taking to the streets in red and blue states alike to emphatically
decry a president they consider reprehensible and, even, illegitimate. Trump visited the Central
Intelligence Agency for a stream-of-consciousness airing of grievances including against
3. journalists, whom he called “the most dishonest human beings on earth.” Shortly thereafter, press
secretary Sean Spicer addressed the media for the first time from the White House, where he
yelled at the assembled press corps and charged it with “sowing division” with “deliberately
false reporting” of Trump’s inauguration crowd. Media bias? What say ye?
4. Perfect Storm for Dollar? There is a fundamental case
for the dollar to fall further from here, according to Unicredit's chief currency strategist,
Tuesday. The U.S. currency is hovering around a six-week low after comments leaked on
Monday from U.S. Treasury Secretary nominee Steve Mnuchin regarding potential short-term
hits to the country's economy from an "excessively strong dollar." These remarks are just one
factor to suggest the dollar is set to lose further ground in coming months, according to Vasileios
Gkionakis, head of global FX strategy at Unicredit. The dollar's 30% appreciation between the
summers of 2014 to the end of 2016 demonstrated that there is already a lot of optimism priced
in. Given that the U.S. is currently operating near full capacity and full employment, a large yet
short-term fiscal stimulus boost which does not address structural issues, will affect nominal
rather than real rates, the strategist said. Inflation over the medium term is really a negative for
the exchange rate and with the new administration trying to talk the exchange rate down. The
dollar index peaked in early January but has been trending down in recent weeks. "I think 2017
is going to be a year where we see a weaker dollar across the board," Gkionakis concluded. What
do you believe? Is “strong dollar” or “weak dollar” good for economic prosperity for America?
5. US-Mexico Crisis Deepens. The White House on Thursday
floated the idea of imposing a 20% tax on goods from Mexico to pay for a wall at the southern
U.S. border, sending the peso tumbling and deepening a crisis between the two
neighbors. Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto announced on Twitter around midday on
Thursday that he was not coming to meet with U.S. President, who has repeatedly demanded that
Mexico pay for a wall on the U.S. border. Trump, who visited Republican lawmakers and told
them he could also use tax reform legislation to pay for the border wall. He said later the meeting
was canceled by mutual agreement. Trump has vowed to renegotiate NAFTA with Mexico and
Canada and slap high tariffs on American companies that have moved jobs south of the
border. Mexico ships 80% of its exports to the United States, and about half of Mexico's foreign
direct investment has come from its northern neighbor over the past two decades. The United
States runs a $58.8 billion trade deficit with Mexico, according to the latest U.S. government
figures. But Mexico is also the United States' second-largest export market. Trade war with
Mexico, and with China…?
4. 6. Samsung Q4 Operating Profit Up 50%. Here is a
lesson on diversification strategy. Some believed Samsung will disappear with the smokes from
Note 7 but instead Samsung's profits jumped 50% on-year in the fourth-quarter. The diverse
business portfolio helped cushion the fallout from a massive product recall of its Galaxy Note 7
handsets and investigations of its senior executives in an on-going corruption scandal. In a
regulatory filing on Tuesday, Samsung Electronics, the flagship of South Korea's biggest
conglomerate - said consolidated operating profit for the October-December 2016 quarter came
in at 9.22 trillion Korean won ($7.9 billion), up 50.16% from 6.14 trillion won from a year
earlier. With global smartphone growth projected to slow down, Samsung expects new services
such as the use of artificial intelligence in handsets to become a differentiating factor. The
company previously expected an operating loss of more than $5 billion, spread over three
quarters, as a result of the recall and eventual discontinuation of the Note 7. So, do not put all
your eggs in one basket.
7. Rental Friends in China. Lunar New Year, Year of the
Rooster, spike in price of China’s fake boyfriends and girlfriends, hired by singles to save face
over the holidays. The run-up to this year's Lunar New Year holiday in China has seen a surge
in demand for rented girlfriends or boyfriends, as single millennials look to pass themselves off
to their families as being in a relationship when they go home for the annual celebrations. In
China, where producing offspring is seen as an important filial obligation, pressure to get
married and give birth can be overwhelming, so much so that people seek this temporary and
pricey solution to appeasing their parents and other relatives. The cost of renting a pretend
partner typically ranges from 500 yuan to 2,000 yuan a night, plus expenses. However, prices
have soared ahead of the Spring Festival holiday. One desperate bachelor is offering to pay up to
6,000 yuan on Chinese social media platform Baidu to a woman who'll have a meal and spend a
night with his family. When they are visiting family Chinese are buying American fish (Alaskan
black cod), lobsters, Jack Daniel, Jim Bean, cosmetics, and baby foods... to celebrate Chinese
New Year.
Again, these are my researched and analytical thoughts on the highlights of the week. Perhaps
you should take a closer look at them, do additional research and analysis, if these are interest to
you. Always, you decide with your own final analysis and position. Best 2017 Wishes.
As always, I welcome your thoughtful comments.
5. ~ S. Vincent Shin
www.linkedin.com/in/vshin
Image credits to: vShin, Getty image, AP Photo, Reuters, CNBC, and special thanks to Image &
Visual Consultant @U.Y.