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ABRAHAM GULKOWITZ
abe@gulkowitz.com
917-402-9039
2017 issue 16August 30, 2017
Flood Warnings…
Mega Storm Harvey, which made landfall in Texas, is set to rank as one of the costliest natural disasters on record. But while this tragic disaster comes with
serious and seemingly endless disruptions near-term, there may be significant rebuilding and upgrading longer-term. As a result, there may be a less
negative assessment about the long-term impact on the broader economy. The other immediate threat is posed by the looming deadline for Congress to raise
the federal “debt ceiling,” allowing the government to borrow money to pay its massive bills. Since U.S. Federal debt is widely viewed as the world’s safest
investment, even a temporary break in payments/borrowings might have negative consequences. The world’s major economies are all growing for the first
time since the crisis, but the expansion is tepid and fragile by historical standards. Moreover, another justification for unease in the markets (the U.S. dollar
and the stock market) is the festering political risk. While the possible government shutdown is problematic, uncertainties -- particularly from failed government
agenda items, terror concerns and geopolitical issues here and abroad - - continue to confound investors and may contribute to intermittent bouts of volatility.
Markets...
Assumption that recent past will continue
indefinitely is easy to make and perilous…
Many investors see corporate debt as overvalued
Fed Officials Confront New Reality:
Low Inflation and Low Unemployment
The apartment-construction boom
is coming to an end, and builders
aren’t ramping up single-family
construction quickly enough to fill
the void.
Investors Grapple With Signs of Market Unrest
Rare Total US Eclipse
Moon Cloaks Sun, and Nation Is Awed...
Breakdown in work for a few hours of viewing
The disconnect between consumer sentiment and
actual spending appears to be a global problem…
For the first time in a decade, all OECD economies are expanding
Low, low rates benefited big investors more than ordinary Americans
The feel-good Hallmark Channel
is booming in the age of Trump
Houston hit by ‘catastrophic’ flooding as Harvey crosses Texas
Rescue Efforts Tax Emergency Resources...
Oil markets were roiled after Tropical Storm Harvey wreaked havoc
along the U.S. Gulf Coast over the weekend, crippling Houston and its
port, and knocking out several refineries as well as some crude production.
Saudi – Qatar tensions not improving
Will N Korea antics dent world outlook ?
The USD extended losses for the third session on Tuesday amid mounting worries over
the impact of Hurricane Harvey on the economy and geopolitical tensions after North
Korea fired a missile that flew over Japan. The DXY was down near 0.6% to 91.68 during
early European trading hours, the lowest since January of 2015.
North Korea missile and stronger
euro sink European stocks
Copper Hits 33-month High
China’s longer-dated bond
yields are grinding higher
Blockbuster run of US
corporate debt defies sceptics
Companies on track to tap bond investors
for more than $1tn for the third year
running
US GDP Growth Revised Sharply Higher
The PunchLine...
2
August 30, 2017
In This Issue
Headlines and data appearing in The Punch Line came from widely available publications including
national and international newspapers, trade journals, economic and industrial bulletins and news websites.
• Alternative Facts (pg 6)
• The Likelihood of Unlikely Events... (pg 7)
• Signals… (pg 8)
• Select US Data (pg 9)
• Households… (pg 10)
• A Fuller View… (pg 11)
• Consumer Perspectives (pg 12)
• Dislocation, Dislocation (pg 13)
• The Future Ain’t… (pg 14)
• The Market Roar (pg 15)
• Credit (pg 16)
• The DNA of Business… (pg 17)
• Will Life Ever be the Same? (pg 18)
• Flood Warnings…
Mega Storm Harvey, which made landfall in Texas, is set to rank as one of
the costliest natural disasters on record. But while this tragic disaster comes
with serious and seemingly endless disruptions near-term, there may be
significant rebuilding and upgrading longer-term. As a result, there may be a
less negative assessment about the long-term impact on the broader
economy. The other immediate threat is posed by the looming deadline for
Congress to raise the federal “debt ceiling,” allowing the government to
borrow money to pay its massive bills. Since U.S. Federal debt is widely
viewed as the world’s safest investment, even a temporary break in
payments/borrowings might have negative consequences. The world’s major
economies are all growing for the first time since the crisis, but the expansion
is tepid and fragile by historical standards. Moreover, another justification for
unease in the markets (the U.S. dollar and the stock market) is the festering
political risk. While the possible government shutdown is problematic,
uncertainties -- particularly from failed government agenda items, terror
concerns and geopolitical issues here and abroad - - continue to confound
investors and may contribute to intermittent bouts of volatility. (pg 1)
• In This Issue (pg 2)
• Real Estate and Construction… (pg 3)
• You Can’t Handle the Truth ! (pg 4)
• Engines of Growth
Despite a run of global statistics offering relief, confusing stress signals are still
emanating from around the globe . Uncertainties -- particularly from terror and
geopolitical concerns here and abroad - - dangerous issues regarding N Korea, China,
Iran and others - - continue to confound investors and contribute to intermittent bouts of
volatility. Despite extensive and massive easing, most of the global economy still faces
woefully inadequate growth prospects and difficult policy options. The U.S. stands alone
in its ability to breakout of its growth doldrums, if only it can move forward on reform…
But let’s not forget that many of the challenges are not fleeting, and many cannot be
resolved easily or quickly… (pg 5)
Contact information:
Abraham Gulkowitz
phone: 917-402-9039 email: abe@gulkowitz.com
The PunchLine...
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August 30, 2017
Real Estate and Construction Outlook
China's government is moving to curb domestic
companies' investments abroad in property, sports,
entertainment and other fields, following a series of high-
profile, multibillion-dollar acquisitions by Chinese firms.
A document released Friday by the State Council, China's
Cabinet, was the latest move by regulators to tap the
brakes on a string of foreign acquisitions, citing concerns
that the companies involved may be taking on too much
debt. One of those conglomerates, Wanda Group,
became the world's biggest cinema operator with its
purchase of a majority stake in U.S. chain AMC in 2012
for $2.6 billion. It added rival Carmike Cinemas Inc. last
year in a $1.2 billion deal and also bought film production
house Legendary Entertainment for $3.5 billion.
APARTMENTS… The rents in New York City
are barely growing. Revenue growth was close to
zero over the 12 months that ended in mid-2017.
Shopping mall properties are under pressure
due to the hemorrhage in the retail sector
Feds widen hunt for dirty money in real estate
That’s the message federal regulators are sending to the
real estate industry in Miami and other high-priced
housing markets.
On Tuesday, the U.S. Treasury Department announced it would
extend and expand a temporary initiative designed to uncover
criminals laundering money through real estate. The decree targets
secretive shell companies — corporations that don’t have to reveal
their true owners — buying luxury homes. The feds have already
renewed the rules twice since announcing them in January 2016.
Rate of Loan Default Rises in
Office and Retail Sectors
After reaching a post-crisis low
below 5% in mid-2016, the CMBS
delinquency rate has been steadily
climbing. Some of that uptick has
been attributed to the oft-quoted
wave of maturities as previously
performing loans fail to refinance
at their balloon date.
Sears is closing 28 more Kmarts
Lloyds prepares to sell off its London headquarters
Move comes as sterling fall attracts Chinese investors to
City property
Lodging Sector - - overall occupancy rates likely to
increase following Hurricane Harvey
Hotel Building Boom Stalls As Demand Plays Catchup
The PunchLine...
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August 30, 2017
You Can’t Handle the Truth…
Let'sTake the “Con” out of Economics
U.S. home resales unexpectedly fell in July to their lowest
monthly level of the year due to a lack of properties for sale, which
also continued to push up prices. The National Association of
Realtors said on Thursday existing home sales fell 1.3 percent to a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.44 million units last month.
June's sales pace was revised slightly lower to 5.51 million units.
A dearth of properties on the market has crimped the housing
recovery and forced price appreciation to significantly outstrip
wage gains. The median house price was $258,300, a 6.2 percent
rise from one year ago, reflecting the paucity of properties.
At the current sales rate, it would take 4.2 months to clear
inventory, down from 4.8 months one year ago. Economists view a
6-month supply as a healthy balance between supply and demand.
The median number of days homes were on the market in July was
30, compared to 36 days one year ago. Across the regions, the
Northeast saw a decline of 14.5 percent and in the Midwest sales
were down 5.3 percent. They jumped in the West by 5.0 percent
while sales increased 2.2 percent in the South.
The PunchLine...
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August 30, 2017
Engines of Growth…
Forecasting turning points in the
face of stronger momentum ?!
China’s Online Giants Back $12 Billion
Deal to Shake Up State Firm
Tencent and Alibaba are among private companies
that will take stakes in China Unicom, as part of an
effort to overhaul bloated state-run companies.
Japan's GDP grew a spectacular 4% in the April-
June quarter, chalking up six consecutive quarters
of growth
► Employee compensation heading up
► Strong demand for durable goods
► Government investment contributes
► Prices barely rise
► Bankruptcies at 25-year lows
Following the start of formal negotiations, the EU and
the United Kingdom are on a tight timeline to 'Brexit'
The EU's recovery stays on track, but fundamental differences
between member states pose a long-term risk
Despite Economic Growth, Many in Europe Still Lack Steady
Jobs… In many corners of Europe, the recession cost millions their
jobs and, since then, many have remained unemployed with little
hope of finding new ones, despite an economic turnaround.
ECB, Worried by Euro…
The euro hit an 8-year high against the British pound
European shares hit two-week low as euro surges
Amid fanfare about Europe’s comeback, the labor-
market scars of the recession present a challenge to
policy makers and suggest political discontent in the
region isn’t going away. The situation in Spain-the
poster child of Europe’s recovery and a country on track
to record its third year of 3%- plus growth-is a case in
point. Though Spain has created around 1.6 million jobs
since 2013, the recovery has come at a price. Around 90%
of the new jobs are temporary, some lasting only several
days, according to government figures. It is a decades
long problem in Spain that post crisis labor reforms have
failed to resolve. A tourism boom in Europe’s south this
summer—record arrivals in Spain, Greece and Portugal
are powering growth there—is at the center of a debate
now over the quality of the jobs recovery. Government
officials say higher-quality jobs and more permanent
contracts will come as the countries’ economic recoveries
deepen further. Unions and opposition political leaders
say change isn’t coming fast enough.
China is trying to clamp down on overseas
acquisitions by its companies. Hostility is growing in
the United States toward Chinese deals. And the auto
industry faces substantial change in the form of
battery-powered vehicles and autonomous cars. None
of that deterred one Chinese automaker, Great Wall
Motor Co., from saying that it was interested in buying
the Jeep brand — a quintessentially American car
known for its sport utility vehicles and pickup trucks.
METALS: China’s regulators are once again
worried about rising speculative activity in
industrial metals. The Shanghai Futures
Exchange imposed trading caps on non-
commercial accounts and raised day-trading
transaction fees on the most active zinc futures.
Zinc and other metals retreated from the recent
highs.
Pyongyang carried out one of its most provocative missile
tests in recent years, prompting Japan to issue an alert for
residents to take cover.
The PunchLine...
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August 30, 2017
Alternative Facts- Careful Reading
China’s demographic time bomb:
Excess savings from the past will dwindle
with its ageing population
The PunchLine...
7
August 30, 2017
The Likelihood of Unlikely Events
Global Disorder
World Grows More Dangerous
China formalized existing measures to curb outbound investment,
underscoring persistent capital-outflow pressure faced by Beijing.
The government must restrict overseas investment in sectors such as
property, hotels, cinema, entertainment and sports teams, the State
Council said in guidelines released on the main government website
Friday. Officials have warned against rising risks in such investment
over the past year, but it is the first time the cabinet has publicized
such controls in the form of official guidance. Establishment of
equity-investment funds and any investment platforms that aren’t
linked to any specific projects are also restricted by the government,
according to the measures jointly drafted by the country’s top
economic planner, Commerce Ministry, central bank and Foreign
Ministry.
The market is being held up by the largest
firms, making it increasingly vulnerable.
BRAZIL Infrastructure investments could drive
pickup in growth and competitiveness, were it not
for funding problems
'China Zombie' firms
The biggest single group of debtors are state-owned enterprises (SOEs), although
there have also been large increases in the debts owed by the government, other
businesses and households. SOEs are a long standing issue in China. Many are
what are called zombie companies that are not financially viable and are often in
industries where there is excess capacity. They account for the most pressing
corporate debt issues, the report says. There is also a warning about the housing
market. A sudden "correction", or in other words, a fall in prices, could pose a risk
to financial stability. The report says that decisive action is needed.
CHINA: Large state-owned enterprises have
amended their articles of association to formalize
Communist Party control
Fed Chair Yellen: Can Get Too Confident
“Moreover, I expect that the evolution of the financial system in
response to global economic forces, technology, and, yes,
regulation will result sooner or later in the all-too familiar risks of
excessive optimism, leverage, and maturity transformation
reemerging in new ways that require policy responses.”
U.S. Curbs Venezuela’s Access to Debt, Toughening Sanctions
Sector transformations can alter the trajectories of businesses
Central Bankers: their confidence bolstered by a sustained return to
economic growth that may eventually allow the European Central Bank
and the Bank of Japan to follow the Federal Reserve in winding down their
crisis-era policies.
Yet in one key area, none of the world's central banks has found the
answer. Inflation remains well below their two percent targets, stoking
a debate about whether they are missing signals of a less than healthy
economy and the need for a slower path of "rate normalization", or that
they simply don't understand how inflation works in a globalized world.
North Korea's 'reckless' missile launch
over Japan sharply escalates tension
China Is Creating the World's Largest Power Company
The government of President Xi Jinping approved the merger of Shenhua
Group Corp., the country’s top coal miner, with China Guodian Corp.,
among its largest power generators, the State-owned Assets Supervision
and Administration Commission said Monday. With assets of 1.8 trillion
yuan ($271 billion), the new entity will be the world’s second-biggest
company by revenue and largest by installed capacity
Bond markets pricing in low inflation
Chile faces increasing obstacles to a return
to its former strong economic performance
The PunchLine...
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August 30, 2017
Select Signals
US motor vehicles and parts output
saw the largest decline since 2009 amid
slumping car sales.
Ad Giant Signals Deepening Industry Woes Amid Shift to Digital
Shares in WPP fell almost 11% after the advertising giant reported slowing
sales and warned about future growth.
The company said that group performance had been "much tougher" for the
first seven months of its financial year. It blamed growing economic
uncertainty, reflecting a "rise of populism" in the UK and the US, and
"bumpy" growth in Brazil, Russia and China. WPP now expected sales
growth to be between 0% and 1%, compared with previous forecasts of 2%.
The reduced forecast puts WPP on course for its worse year since 2009 when
like-for-like sales fell by 8.1% during the global recession.
US worries WPP said that new business wins and increased client
spending should help turnover in the second half of its financial year as well
as into 2018, buoyed by events such as the Russian World Cup, the mid-
term Congressional elections and the PyeongChang Winter Olympics.
A major auto lender has decided to change its approval process
to look beyond credit scores in an effort to pump up sales.
The move by Ford Motor Co.’s F +0.75% financing unit is
expected to unfold in coming years, even as concerns mount
about rising auto-loan losses in the industry. Ford Motor Credit
is expected to announce the plans as soon as Friday. The
company says it is looking at ways to increase loan and lease
approvals for applicants with limited credit histories. These
consumers are often denied credit because they lack a history of
managing debt and as a result have low credit scores. Ford’s
credit division plans to review new data to try to determine
whether these customers, as well as those with more robust
borrowing histories, are likely to repay their loans. Subprime
auto lending industrywide has allowed consumers with missed
loan payments and other blemishes on their credit reports to
get financing. This helped fuel new U.S. car sales, which hit
record highs in 2015 and again in 2016. But as losses have
worsened, many lenders have pulled back on originations to
risky borrowers.
Inventories of crossover SUVs are
piling up at dealers despite a
significant bump in incentives.
The PunchLine...
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August 30, 2017
Select US Data
The National Association of Realtors reported that the
Composite Index of Home Affordability declined 7.3%
y/y during June to 144.5, the lowest level since
September 2008. The index was 32.6% below its peak in
January 2013. During the last ten years, there has been a 58%
correlation between the affordability index level and the y/y
change in existing single-family home sales
US housing inflation is running at more than double
the rate of the median wage growth (the latest home
price appreciation figure from the FHFA is 6.5% per
year).
New U.S. single-family home
sales unexpectedly fell in July,
dropping to their lowest in seven
months, which could raise concerns of
a slowdown in the housing market
recovery. Sales of new single-family
houses in the US shrank 9.4% to an
annual rate of 571K in July from an
upwardly revised 630K in June. It is
the lowest reading so far this year and
well below expectations of 612K.
Sales fell in the Northeast, the West
and the South.
The PunchLine...
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August 30, 2017
Households – Brave New World
U.S. workers see little hope for
higher paychecks, and while they
are increasingly searching for new
jobs, they expect fewer offers to fall
into their laps, according to a
Federal Reserve survey published
on Monday.
The first-of-its-kind New York Fed
study, to be published three times
per year, paints a gloomy picture of
U.S. workers' aspirations. Even
though the unemployment rate, at
4.4 percent, is near a 16-year low
after more than eight years of
economic recovery, national
measures of wages have shown
only modest growth.
The slowdown in US household formation doesn’t bode well
for longer term projections for new residential construction
The expectations component of the sentiment index
surged. American households remain upbeat
A major insurer run by New York State’s largest
medical provider is pulling out of Obamacare
because of massive losses, the company announced
Thursday. Northwell Health (the former North
Shore-Long Island Jewish medical center network )
blamed a flawed provision in the Affordable Care
Act — and the lack of action in Washington to fix it
— as the culprits for winding down its CareConnect
insurance company.
The PunchLine...
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August 30, 2017
A Fuller View… Data Insights
Americans' debt level notched another record high in the second quarter,
after having earlier in the year surpassed its pre-crisis peak, on the back of
modest rises in mortgage, auto and credit card debt, where delinquencies
jumped.
Total U.S. household debt was $12.84 trillion in the three months to June,
up $552 billion from a year ago, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of
New York report published on Tuesday.
The proportion of overall debt that was delinquent, at 4.8 percent, was on
par with the previous quarter. However a red flag was raised over the
transitions of credit card balances into delinquency, which the New York
Fed said "ticked up notably."
Loosening lending standards have allowed borrowers with lower credit
scores to access credit cards, Andrew Haughwout, an in-house economist,
said in the report.
"The current state of credit card delinquency flows can be an early
indicator of future trends and we will closely monitor the degree to which
this uptick is predictive of further consumer distress," he said.
Total U.S. indebtedness is about 14 percent above the trough of household
deleveraging brought on by the 2007-2009 financial crisis and deep
recession, a pull-back that interrupted what had been a 63-year upward
trend.
Mortgage debt was $8.69 trillion in the second quarter, up $329 billion
from last year, the report said. Student loan debt was $1.34 trillion, up $85
billion, while auto loan debt came in at $1.19 trillion, up $55 billion.
The PunchLine...
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August 30, 2017
Consumer Perspectives
The PunchLine...
13
August 30, 2017
Dislocation, Dislocation, Dislocation
The ratio of coincident to lagging indicators is often considered to
be a leading indicator of economic activity. If an economy is
slowing, its lagging performance will be better than its current
performance. This ratio edged up in July, but has generally declined
over the past several years--running counter to the upbeat message
from the index of leading indicators.
US industrial production increased 0.2%
mom in July, lower than a 0.4% gain in
June and below expectations of 0.3%.
Manufacturing output shrank 0.1%,
mainly due to a fall in production of motor
vehicles and parts and mining rose at a
slower pace while utilities rebounded.
Eclipse: What Happens if the World’s
Giant Solar Farms Go Offline?
The first total solar eclipse in 99 years will be an
unprecedented test of an American power grid that
has become rapidly reliant on solar energy
The PunchLine...
14
August 30, 2017
The Future Ain’t What It Used To Be
US oil production is approaching the 2015 peak
The PunchLine...
15
August 30, 2017
The Market Roar…
History May Not Repeat, But It Often Rhymes
History Receipts Itself
The tech universe is increasingly propped up by the largest firms.
Smaller tech shares are struggling, which shows up in the equally-
weighted NASDAQ 100 underperformance
Why Lawsuits Targeting Stock Losses Are on the Rise
This year has seen a historic number of class-action securities lawsuits.
Law firms are increasingly bringing securities cases targeting business
disruptions or disasters, failed pharmaceutical trials and disappointing
earnings.
The volume, which doesn’t include suits challenging mergers and
acquisitions, is higher than in any equivalent period since the
Clearinghouse began tracking data in 1996, following the passage of
landmark securities-litigation legislation. Under securities laws,
investors can sue to recoup losses after a stock drops by proving a
company or its employees fraudulently misstated or withheld
information that would have been material to buying or selling shares.
Advisers are alerting clients that in the current era, every company,
from small-cap to corporate giants, needs a plan for defending against
fraud accusations following investor losses.
Stocks in Venezuela Hit All-time High
The PunchLine...
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August 30, 2017
Credit Matters - Know Risk
Many Excel in Strategy, Few in the Management of Risk
Efforts by the United States government to loosen regulations on
banks are "dangerous and extremely short-sighted", one of the U.S.
central bank's top policymakers said in an interview
India is taking a series of aggressive steps to
reduce the mountain of bad debts weighing
down its banks and threatening to derail the
world’s fastest-growing large economy. India’s
parliament last week passed a law empowering
its central bank to force some of the country’s
largest companies into bankruptcy
proceedings. The move follows last year’s
overhaul of the bankruptcy code, another
attempt to make it faster for creditors to get
their money back in a country notorious for
drawn-out insolvency proceedings. India’s
efforts come as most of its state banks are
struggling with extremely high levels of bad
debts, which has dented their ability to make
new loans. This, in turn, has pushed down the
level of investment to a 13-year low and led
economic growth to slow.
Leveraged loan prices are drifting lower
UK A major subprime lender, Provident Financial, has
gone off the rails as its shares sink 70%. The firm’s debt
collection business is an absolute disaster. What will
this mean for subprime finance in the UK?
Drowning in debt, Connecticut faces budget crunch
Connecticut, home to hedge fund billionaires alongside
cities mired in poverty, is racing against the clock to pass
a budget or face further spending cuts to education and
municipal aid across the state.
The STLFSI measures the degree of financial
stress in the markets and is constructed from 18
weekly data series: seven interest rate series, six
yield spreads and five other indicators. Each of
these variables captures some aspect of financial
stress. Accordingly, as the level of financial
stress in the economy changes, the data series are
likely to move together.
New Russia sanctions disrupt major Intesa loan syndication
Italian bank Intesa Sanpaolo has encountered problems syndicating a
loan to Glencore and Qatar's wealth fund to finance their purchase of a
stake in the Kremlin-controlled oil major Rosneft because of new U.S.
sanctions against Russia.
The synthetic CDO, a villain of the global financial crisis, is back.
A decade ago, investors’ bad bets on collateralized debt obligations
helped fuel the crisis. Billed as safe, they turned out to be anything
but. Now, more investors are returning to CDOs—and so are concerns
that excess is seeping into the aging bull market. In the U.S., the
CDO market sunk steadily in the years after the financial crisis but has
been fairly flat since 2014. In Europe, the total size of market is now
rising again—up 5.6% annually in the first quarter of the year and
14.4% in the last quarter of 2016, according to the Securities Industry
and Financial Markets Association.
Ultra-low rates put squeeze on Germany’s small banks
Most have an excess of deposits and now have to pay fees to park
money at the ECB
The New York State Department of Financial Services (DFS) is
seeking to fine Habib Bank Ltd nearly $630 million for
deficiencies relating to compliance with state and federal laws
at its only U.S. branch, an official of the Pakistan bank said
The PunchLine...
17
August 30, 2017
The DNA of Business
Reconfiguring Industries to Define Growth
Amazon’s aggressive salesmanship
now extends to its own debt.
Its blowout $16 billion bond sale suggests almost
unlimited potential for Amazon, the retailing juggernaut,
to consider even more shopping. Yet in nearly tripling
its financial obligations to buy brick-and-mortar Whole
Foods Market, Jeff Bezos’s company is starting to look
more traditional. The risk is that its stock will, too.
Although Russia still puts people and
satellites into orbit, its space industry
faces financial and technical challenges
Wal-Mart Sales Rise but it came
at the expense of profits.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. said sales rose in its
latest quarter Thursday, showing that the
world’s largest retailer continues to avoid the
malaise that has hit some competitors, but it
came at the expense of profits.
Henry Hub’s growing prominence underscores how the
burgeoning trade in liquefied natural gas is weaving
disparate regions together into an increasingly unified global
marketplace, more like that for crude oil. That could
transform what has been a niche market that swings on
slight shifts in the weather forecast into a reflection of the
global economy.
Henry Hub entered the global marketplace when Cheniere
Energy Inc. signed the first export contract of U.S. liquefied
natural gas from the U.S. Gulf in 2011. Before that, almost
all LNG was sold at prices tied to oil, around 98% in 2000.
The Messy, Confusing Future of TV?
It’s Here
Wal-Mart Stores Inc reported lower
quarterly margins after it cut prices and
invested heavily on expanding its e-
commerce operations, and its shares fell
nearly 3 percent.
Americans are buying more food at Walmart
Sempra Energy has reached a deal to buy Oncor for
$9.45 billion after swooping in to snatch the power-
transmission company away from Warren Buffett’s
Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
U.S. Clears First Copycat Biotech Drug,
Jolting Sector
Novartis’s Zarxio could begin a wave of lower-cost versions of
expensive drugs Lower-priced copies of biotech drugs are
estimated to save the U.S. $47 billion over the next 10 years,
according to consulting firm Avalere Health LLC. Unlike
regular pills, biotechnology drugs haven’t faced generic
competition when their patents expire because they are much
harder to copy, and because regulators until now couldn’t
figure out how to approve knockoffs that were highly similar
but not exact replicas. The knockoffs are known as
“biosimilars.”
Total Buys Maersk Oil for $5 Billion
French energy company will also assume $2.5 billion of
Maersk Oil’s debt
The deal will help Total bolster its position among the
world’s largest oil companies, potentially boosting its
earnings and cash flow and shoring up its ability to pay
dividends.
Japan in race to build driverless tractor
Greying farmers, rural exodus and food self-
sufficiency behind drive for ‘robo-tractors’
Village Voice print edition falls silent
US alternative newspapers have been hard hit
by shift to digital advertising era
Wal-Mart and Google Partner
to Challenge Amazon
Hyundai Motor plans to launch a pickup truck in
the United States as part of a broader plan to catch
up with a shift away from sedans in one of the
Korean automaker's most important markets
Weak patient admissions that plagued
U.S. hospital operators in the June
quarter are likely to persist through
2018, as patients fret about soaring
out-of-pocket costs and the future of
Obamacare remains uncertain.
Amazon Rewrites Rule Book for Grocers
Gilead Sciences has agreed to pay about $11 billion for
Kite Pharma and its promising new technology for
harnessing the body’s immune system to fight cancer.
Corn Hits 38-week Low
The PunchLine...
18
August 30, 2017
Will Life Ever Be the Same?
This publication is provided to you for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial
instrument. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not necessarily complete and its
accuracy cannot by guaranteed. The views reflected herein are subject to change without notice. No one connected to this publication accepts any
liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. This publication may not be
reproduced, distributed to any person for any purpose without express permission from TPL Advisory, LLC. Please cite source when quoting. All
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TPL Aug 30 17

  • 1. ABRAHAM GULKOWITZ abe@gulkowitz.com 917-402-9039 2017 issue 16August 30, 2017 Flood Warnings… Mega Storm Harvey, which made landfall in Texas, is set to rank as one of the costliest natural disasters on record. But while this tragic disaster comes with serious and seemingly endless disruptions near-term, there may be significant rebuilding and upgrading longer-term. As a result, there may be a less negative assessment about the long-term impact on the broader economy. The other immediate threat is posed by the looming deadline for Congress to raise the federal “debt ceiling,” allowing the government to borrow money to pay its massive bills. Since U.S. Federal debt is widely viewed as the world’s safest investment, even a temporary break in payments/borrowings might have negative consequences. The world’s major economies are all growing for the first time since the crisis, but the expansion is tepid and fragile by historical standards. Moreover, another justification for unease in the markets (the U.S. dollar and the stock market) is the festering political risk. While the possible government shutdown is problematic, uncertainties -- particularly from failed government agenda items, terror concerns and geopolitical issues here and abroad - - continue to confound investors and may contribute to intermittent bouts of volatility. Markets... Assumption that recent past will continue indefinitely is easy to make and perilous… Many investors see corporate debt as overvalued Fed Officials Confront New Reality: Low Inflation and Low Unemployment The apartment-construction boom is coming to an end, and builders aren’t ramping up single-family construction quickly enough to fill the void. Investors Grapple With Signs of Market Unrest Rare Total US Eclipse Moon Cloaks Sun, and Nation Is Awed... Breakdown in work for a few hours of viewing The disconnect between consumer sentiment and actual spending appears to be a global problem… For the first time in a decade, all OECD economies are expanding Low, low rates benefited big investors more than ordinary Americans The feel-good Hallmark Channel is booming in the age of Trump Houston hit by ‘catastrophic’ flooding as Harvey crosses Texas Rescue Efforts Tax Emergency Resources... Oil markets were roiled after Tropical Storm Harvey wreaked havoc along the U.S. Gulf Coast over the weekend, crippling Houston and its port, and knocking out several refineries as well as some crude production. Saudi – Qatar tensions not improving Will N Korea antics dent world outlook ? The USD extended losses for the third session on Tuesday amid mounting worries over the impact of Hurricane Harvey on the economy and geopolitical tensions after North Korea fired a missile that flew over Japan. The DXY was down near 0.6% to 91.68 during early European trading hours, the lowest since January of 2015. North Korea missile and stronger euro sink European stocks Copper Hits 33-month High China’s longer-dated bond yields are grinding higher Blockbuster run of US corporate debt defies sceptics Companies on track to tap bond investors for more than $1tn for the third year running US GDP Growth Revised Sharply Higher
  • 2. The PunchLine... 2 August 30, 2017 In This Issue Headlines and data appearing in The Punch Line came from widely available publications including national and international newspapers, trade journals, economic and industrial bulletins and news websites. • Alternative Facts (pg 6) • The Likelihood of Unlikely Events... (pg 7) • Signals… (pg 8) • Select US Data (pg 9) • Households… (pg 10) • A Fuller View… (pg 11) • Consumer Perspectives (pg 12) • Dislocation, Dislocation (pg 13) • The Future Ain’t… (pg 14) • The Market Roar (pg 15) • Credit (pg 16) • The DNA of Business… (pg 17) • Will Life Ever be the Same? (pg 18) • Flood Warnings… Mega Storm Harvey, which made landfall in Texas, is set to rank as one of the costliest natural disasters on record. But while this tragic disaster comes with serious and seemingly endless disruptions near-term, there may be significant rebuilding and upgrading longer-term. As a result, there may be a less negative assessment about the long-term impact on the broader economy. The other immediate threat is posed by the looming deadline for Congress to raise the federal “debt ceiling,” allowing the government to borrow money to pay its massive bills. Since U.S. Federal debt is widely viewed as the world’s safest investment, even a temporary break in payments/borrowings might have negative consequences. The world’s major economies are all growing for the first time since the crisis, but the expansion is tepid and fragile by historical standards. Moreover, another justification for unease in the markets (the U.S. dollar and the stock market) is the festering political risk. While the possible government shutdown is problematic, uncertainties -- particularly from failed government agenda items, terror concerns and geopolitical issues here and abroad - - continue to confound investors and may contribute to intermittent bouts of volatility. (pg 1) • In This Issue (pg 2) • Real Estate and Construction… (pg 3) • You Can’t Handle the Truth ! (pg 4) • Engines of Growth Despite a run of global statistics offering relief, confusing stress signals are still emanating from around the globe . Uncertainties -- particularly from terror and geopolitical concerns here and abroad - - dangerous issues regarding N Korea, China, Iran and others - - continue to confound investors and contribute to intermittent bouts of volatility. Despite extensive and massive easing, most of the global economy still faces woefully inadequate growth prospects and difficult policy options. The U.S. stands alone in its ability to breakout of its growth doldrums, if only it can move forward on reform… But let’s not forget that many of the challenges are not fleeting, and many cannot be resolved easily or quickly… (pg 5) Contact information: Abraham Gulkowitz phone: 917-402-9039 email: abe@gulkowitz.com
  • 3. The PunchLine... 3 August 30, 2017 Real Estate and Construction Outlook China's government is moving to curb domestic companies' investments abroad in property, sports, entertainment and other fields, following a series of high- profile, multibillion-dollar acquisitions by Chinese firms. A document released Friday by the State Council, China's Cabinet, was the latest move by regulators to tap the brakes on a string of foreign acquisitions, citing concerns that the companies involved may be taking on too much debt. One of those conglomerates, Wanda Group, became the world's biggest cinema operator with its purchase of a majority stake in U.S. chain AMC in 2012 for $2.6 billion. It added rival Carmike Cinemas Inc. last year in a $1.2 billion deal and also bought film production house Legendary Entertainment for $3.5 billion. APARTMENTS… The rents in New York City are barely growing. Revenue growth was close to zero over the 12 months that ended in mid-2017. Shopping mall properties are under pressure due to the hemorrhage in the retail sector Feds widen hunt for dirty money in real estate That’s the message federal regulators are sending to the real estate industry in Miami and other high-priced housing markets. On Tuesday, the U.S. Treasury Department announced it would extend and expand a temporary initiative designed to uncover criminals laundering money through real estate. The decree targets secretive shell companies — corporations that don’t have to reveal their true owners — buying luxury homes. The feds have already renewed the rules twice since announcing them in January 2016. Rate of Loan Default Rises in Office and Retail Sectors After reaching a post-crisis low below 5% in mid-2016, the CMBS delinquency rate has been steadily climbing. Some of that uptick has been attributed to the oft-quoted wave of maturities as previously performing loans fail to refinance at their balloon date. Sears is closing 28 more Kmarts Lloyds prepares to sell off its London headquarters Move comes as sterling fall attracts Chinese investors to City property Lodging Sector - - overall occupancy rates likely to increase following Hurricane Harvey Hotel Building Boom Stalls As Demand Plays Catchup
  • 4. The PunchLine... 4 August 30, 2017 You Can’t Handle the Truth… Let'sTake the “Con” out of Economics U.S. home resales unexpectedly fell in July to their lowest monthly level of the year due to a lack of properties for sale, which also continued to push up prices. The National Association of Realtors said on Thursday existing home sales fell 1.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.44 million units last month. June's sales pace was revised slightly lower to 5.51 million units. A dearth of properties on the market has crimped the housing recovery and forced price appreciation to significantly outstrip wage gains. The median house price was $258,300, a 6.2 percent rise from one year ago, reflecting the paucity of properties. At the current sales rate, it would take 4.2 months to clear inventory, down from 4.8 months one year ago. Economists view a 6-month supply as a healthy balance between supply and demand. The median number of days homes were on the market in July was 30, compared to 36 days one year ago. Across the regions, the Northeast saw a decline of 14.5 percent and in the Midwest sales were down 5.3 percent. They jumped in the West by 5.0 percent while sales increased 2.2 percent in the South.
  • 5. The PunchLine... 5 August 30, 2017 Engines of Growth… Forecasting turning points in the face of stronger momentum ?! China’s Online Giants Back $12 Billion Deal to Shake Up State Firm Tencent and Alibaba are among private companies that will take stakes in China Unicom, as part of an effort to overhaul bloated state-run companies. Japan's GDP grew a spectacular 4% in the April- June quarter, chalking up six consecutive quarters of growth ► Employee compensation heading up ► Strong demand for durable goods ► Government investment contributes ► Prices barely rise ► Bankruptcies at 25-year lows Following the start of formal negotiations, the EU and the United Kingdom are on a tight timeline to 'Brexit' The EU's recovery stays on track, but fundamental differences between member states pose a long-term risk Despite Economic Growth, Many in Europe Still Lack Steady Jobs… In many corners of Europe, the recession cost millions their jobs and, since then, many have remained unemployed with little hope of finding new ones, despite an economic turnaround. ECB, Worried by Euro… The euro hit an 8-year high against the British pound European shares hit two-week low as euro surges Amid fanfare about Europe’s comeback, the labor- market scars of the recession present a challenge to policy makers and suggest political discontent in the region isn’t going away. The situation in Spain-the poster child of Europe’s recovery and a country on track to record its third year of 3%- plus growth-is a case in point. Though Spain has created around 1.6 million jobs since 2013, the recovery has come at a price. Around 90% of the new jobs are temporary, some lasting only several days, according to government figures. It is a decades long problem in Spain that post crisis labor reforms have failed to resolve. A tourism boom in Europe’s south this summer—record arrivals in Spain, Greece and Portugal are powering growth there—is at the center of a debate now over the quality of the jobs recovery. Government officials say higher-quality jobs and more permanent contracts will come as the countries’ economic recoveries deepen further. Unions and opposition political leaders say change isn’t coming fast enough. China is trying to clamp down on overseas acquisitions by its companies. Hostility is growing in the United States toward Chinese deals. And the auto industry faces substantial change in the form of battery-powered vehicles and autonomous cars. None of that deterred one Chinese automaker, Great Wall Motor Co., from saying that it was interested in buying the Jeep brand — a quintessentially American car known for its sport utility vehicles and pickup trucks. METALS: China’s regulators are once again worried about rising speculative activity in industrial metals. The Shanghai Futures Exchange imposed trading caps on non- commercial accounts and raised day-trading transaction fees on the most active zinc futures. Zinc and other metals retreated from the recent highs. Pyongyang carried out one of its most provocative missile tests in recent years, prompting Japan to issue an alert for residents to take cover.
  • 6. The PunchLine... 6 August 30, 2017 Alternative Facts- Careful Reading China’s demographic time bomb: Excess savings from the past will dwindle with its ageing population
  • 7. The PunchLine... 7 August 30, 2017 The Likelihood of Unlikely Events Global Disorder World Grows More Dangerous China formalized existing measures to curb outbound investment, underscoring persistent capital-outflow pressure faced by Beijing. The government must restrict overseas investment in sectors such as property, hotels, cinema, entertainment and sports teams, the State Council said in guidelines released on the main government website Friday. Officials have warned against rising risks in such investment over the past year, but it is the first time the cabinet has publicized such controls in the form of official guidance. Establishment of equity-investment funds and any investment platforms that aren’t linked to any specific projects are also restricted by the government, according to the measures jointly drafted by the country’s top economic planner, Commerce Ministry, central bank and Foreign Ministry. The market is being held up by the largest firms, making it increasingly vulnerable. BRAZIL Infrastructure investments could drive pickup in growth and competitiveness, were it not for funding problems 'China Zombie' firms The biggest single group of debtors are state-owned enterprises (SOEs), although there have also been large increases in the debts owed by the government, other businesses and households. SOEs are a long standing issue in China. Many are what are called zombie companies that are not financially viable and are often in industries where there is excess capacity. They account for the most pressing corporate debt issues, the report says. There is also a warning about the housing market. A sudden "correction", or in other words, a fall in prices, could pose a risk to financial stability. The report says that decisive action is needed. CHINA: Large state-owned enterprises have amended their articles of association to formalize Communist Party control Fed Chair Yellen: Can Get Too Confident “Moreover, I expect that the evolution of the financial system in response to global economic forces, technology, and, yes, regulation will result sooner or later in the all-too familiar risks of excessive optimism, leverage, and maturity transformation reemerging in new ways that require policy responses.” U.S. Curbs Venezuela’s Access to Debt, Toughening Sanctions Sector transformations can alter the trajectories of businesses Central Bankers: their confidence bolstered by a sustained return to economic growth that may eventually allow the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan to follow the Federal Reserve in winding down their crisis-era policies. Yet in one key area, none of the world's central banks has found the answer. Inflation remains well below their two percent targets, stoking a debate about whether they are missing signals of a less than healthy economy and the need for a slower path of "rate normalization", or that they simply don't understand how inflation works in a globalized world. North Korea's 'reckless' missile launch over Japan sharply escalates tension China Is Creating the World's Largest Power Company The government of President Xi Jinping approved the merger of Shenhua Group Corp., the country’s top coal miner, with China Guodian Corp., among its largest power generators, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission said Monday. With assets of 1.8 trillion yuan ($271 billion), the new entity will be the world’s second-biggest company by revenue and largest by installed capacity Bond markets pricing in low inflation Chile faces increasing obstacles to a return to its former strong economic performance
  • 8. The PunchLine... 8 August 30, 2017 Select Signals US motor vehicles and parts output saw the largest decline since 2009 amid slumping car sales. Ad Giant Signals Deepening Industry Woes Amid Shift to Digital Shares in WPP fell almost 11% after the advertising giant reported slowing sales and warned about future growth. The company said that group performance had been "much tougher" for the first seven months of its financial year. It blamed growing economic uncertainty, reflecting a "rise of populism" in the UK and the US, and "bumpy" growth in Brazil, Russia and China. WPP now expected sales growth to be between 0% and 1%, compared with previous forecasts of 2%. The reduced forecast puts WPP on course for its worse year since 2009 when like-for-like sales fell by 8.1% during the global recession. US worries WPP said that new business wins and increased client spending should help turnover in the second half of its financial year as well as into 2018, buoyed by events such as the Russian World Cup, the mid- term Congressional elections and the PyeongChang Winter Olympics. A major auto lender has decided to change its approval process to look beyond credit scores in an effort to pump up sales. The move by Ford Motor Co.’s F +0.75% financing unit is expected to unfold in coming years, even as concerns mount about rising auto-loan losses in the industry. Ford Motor Credit is expected to announce the plans as soon as Friday. The company says it is looking at ways to increase loan and lease approvals for applicants with limited credit histories. These consumers are often denied credit because they lack a history of managing debt and as a result have low credit scores. Ford’s credit division plans to review new data to try to determine whether these customers, as well as those with more robust borrowing histories, are likely to repay their loans. Subprime auto lending industrywide has allowed consumers with missed loan payments and other blemishes on their credit reports to get financing. This helped fuel new U.S. car sales, which hit record highs in 2015 and again in 2016. But as losses have worsened, many lenders have pulled back on originations to risky borrowers. Inventories of crossover SUVs are piling up at dealers despite a significant bump in incentives.
  • 9. The PunchLine... 9 August 30, 2017 Select US Data The National Association of Realtors reported that the Composite Index of Home Affordability declined 7.3% y/y during June to 144.5, the lowest level since September 2008. The index was 32.6% below its peak in January 2013. During the last ten years, there has been a 58% correlation between the affordability index level and the y/y change in existing single-family home sales US housing inflation is running at more than double the rate of the median wage growth (the latest home price appreciation figure from the FHFA is 6.5% per year). New U.S. single-family home sales unexpectedly fell in July, dropping to their lowest in seven months, which could raise concerns of a slowdown in the housing market recovery. Sales of new single-family houses in the US shrank 9.4% to an annual rate of 571K in July from an upwardly revised 630K in June. It is the lowest reading so far this year and well below expectations of 612K. Sales fell in the Northeast, the West and the South.
  • 10. The PunchLine... 10 August 30, 2017 Households – Brave New World U.S. workers see little hope for higher paychecks, and while they are increasingly searching for new jobs, they expect fewer offers to fall into their laps, according to a Federal Reserve survey published on Monday. The first-of-its-kind New York Fed study, to be published three times per year, paints a gloomy picture of U.S. workers' aspirations. Even though the unemployment rate, at 4.4 percent, is near a 16-year low after more than eight years of economic recovery, national measures of wages have shown only modest growth. The slowdown in US household formation doesn’t bode well for longer term projections for new residential construction The expectations component of the sentiment index surged. American households remain upbeat A major insurer run by New York State’s largest medical provider is pulling out of Obamacare because of massive losses, the company announced Thursday. Northwell Health (the former North Shore-Long Island Jewish medical center network ) blamed a flawed provision in the Affordable Care Act — and the lack of action in Washington to fix it — as the culprits for winding down its CareConnect insurance company.
  • 11. The PunchLine... 11 August 30, 2017 A Fuller View… Data Insights Americans' debt level notched another record high in the second quarter, after having earlier in the year surpassed its pre-crisis peak, on the back of modest rises in mortgage, auto and credit card debt, where delinquencies jumped. Total U.S. household debt was $12.84 trillion in the three months to June, up $552 billion from a year ago, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York report published on Tuesday. The proportion of overall debt that was delinquent, at 4.8 percent, was on par with the previous quarter. However a red flag was raised over the transitions of credit card balances into delinquency, which the New York Fed said "ticked up notably." Loosening lending standards have allowed borrowers with lower credit scores to access credit cards, Andrew Haughwout, an in-house economist, said in the report. "The current state of credit card delinquency flows can be an early indicator of future trends and we will closely monitor the degree to which this uptick is predictive of further consumer distress," he said. Total U.S. indebtedness is about 14 percent above the trough of household deleveraging brought on by the 2007-2009 financial crisis and deep recession, a pull-back that interrupted what had been a 63-year upward trend. Mortgage debt was $8.69 trillion in the second quarter, up $329 billion from last year, the report said. Student loan debt was $1.34 trillion, up $85 billion, while auto loan debt came in at $1.19 trillion, up $55 billion.
  • 12. The PunchLine... 12 August 30, 2017 Consumer Perspectives
  • 13. The PunchLine... 13 August 30, 2017 Dislocation, Dislocation, Dislocation The ratio of coincident to lagging indicators is often considered to be a leading indicator of economic activity. If an economy is slowing, its lagging performance will be better than its current performance. This ratio edged up in July, but has generally declined over the past several years--running counter to the upbeat message from the index of leading indicators. US industrial production increased 0.2% mom in July, lower than a 0.4% gain in June and below expectations of 0.3%. Manufacturing output shrank 0.1%, mainly due to a fall in production of motor vehicles and parts and mining rose at a slower pace while utilities rebounded. Eclipse: What Happens if the World’s Giant Solar Farms Go Offline? The first total solar eclipse in 99 years will be an unprecedented test of an American power grid that has become rapidly reliant on solar energy
  • 14. The PunchLine... 14 August 30, 2017 The Future Ain’t What It Used To Be US oil production is approaching the 2015 peak
  • 15. The PunchLine... 15 August 30, 2017 The Market Roar… History May Not Repeat, But It Often Rhymes History Receipts Itself The tech universe is increasingly propped up by the largest firms. Smaller tech shares are struggling, which shows up in the equally- weighted NASDAQ 100 underperformance Why Lawsuits Targeting Stock Losses Are on the Rise This year has seen a historic number of class-action securities lawsuits. Law firms are increasingly bringing securities cases targeting business disruptions or disasters, failed pharmaceutical trials and disappointing earnings. The volume, which doesn’t include suits challenging mergers and acquisitions, is higher than in any equivalent period since the Clearinghouse began tracking data in 1996, following the passage of landmark securities-litigation legislation. Under securities laws, investors can sue to recoup losses after a stock drops by proving a company or its employees fraudulently misstated or withheld information that would have been material to buying or selling shares. Advisers are alerting clients that in the current era, every company, from small-cap to corporate giants, needs a plan for defending against fraud accusations following investor losses. Stocks in Venezuela Hit All-time High
  • 16. The PunchLine... 16 August 30, 2017 Credit Matters - Know Risk Many Excel in Strategy, Few in the Management of Risk Efforts by the United States government to loosen regulations on banks are "dangerous and extremely short-sighted", one of the U.S. central bank's top policymakers said in an interview India is taking a series of aggressive steps to reduce the mountain of bad debts weighing down its banks and threatening to derail the world’s fastest-growing large economy. India’s parliament last week passed a law empowering its central bank to force some of the country’s largest companies into bankruptcy proceedings. The move follows last year’s overhaul of the bankruptcy code, another attempt to make it faster for creditors to get their money back in a country notorious for drawn-out insolvency proceedings. India’s efforts come as most of its state banks are struggling with extremely high levels of bad debts, which has dented their ability to make new loans. This, in turn, has pushed down the level of investment to a 13-year low and led economic growth to slow. Leveraged loan prices are drifting lower UK A major subprime lender, Provident Financial, has gone off the rails as its shares sink 70%. The firm’s debt collection business is an absolute disaster. What will this mean for subprime finance in the UK? Drowning in debt, Connecticut faces budget crunch Connecticut, home to hedge fund billionaires alongside cities mired in poverty, is racing against the clock to pass a budget or face further spending cuts to education and municipal aid across the state. The STLFSI measures the degree of financial stress in the markets and is constructed from 18 weekly data series: seven interest rate series, six yield spreads and five other indicators. Each of these variables captures some aspect of financial stress. Accordingly, as the level of financial stress in the economy changes, the data series are likely to move together. New Russia sanctions disrupt major Intesa loan syndication Italian bank Intesa Sanpaolo has encountered problems syndicating a loan to Glencore and Qatar's wealth fund to finance their purchase of a stake in the Kremlin-controlled oil major Rosneft because of new U.S. sanctions against Russia. The synthetic CDO, a villain of the global financial crisis, is back. A decade ago, investors’ bad bets on collateralized debt obligations helped fuel the crisis. Billed as safe, they turned out to be anything but. Now, more investors are returning to CDOs—and so are concerns that excess is seeping into the aging bull market. In the U.S., the CDO market sunk steadily in the years after the financial crisis but has been fairly flat since 2014. In Europe, the total size of market is now rising again—up 5.6% annually in the first quarter of the year and 14.4% in the last quarter of 2016, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association. Ultra-low rates put squeeze on Germany’s small banks Most have an excess of deposits and now have to pay fees to park money at the ECB The New York State Department of Financial Services (DFS) is seeking to fine Habib Bank Ltd nearly $630 million for deficiencies relating to compliance with state and federal laws at its only U.S. branch, an official of the Pakistan bank said
  • 17. The PunchLine... 17 August 30, 2017 The DNA of Business Reconfiguring Industries to Define Growth Amazon’s aggressive salesmanship now extends to its own debt. Its blowout $16 billion bond sale suggests almost unlimited potential for Amazon, the retailing juggernaut, to consider even more shopping. Yet in nearly tripling its financial obligations to buy brick-and-mortar Whole Foods Market, Jeff Bezos’s company is starting to look more traditional. The risk is that its stock will, too. Although Russia still puts people and satellites into orbit, its space industry faces financial and technical challenges Wal-Mart Sales Rise but it came at the expense of profits. Wal-Mart Stores Inc. said sales rose in its latest quarter Thursday, showing that the world’s largest retailer continues to avoid the malaise that has hit some competitors, but it came at the expense of profits. Henry Hub’s growing prominence underscores how the burgeoning trade in liquefied natural gas is weaving disparate regions together into an increasingly unified global marketplace, more like that for crude oil. That could transform what has been a niche market that swings on slight shifts in the weather forecast into a reflection of the global economy. Henry Hub entered the global marketplace when Cheniere Energy Inc. signed the first export contract of U.S. liquefied natural gas from the U.S. Gulf in 2011. Before that, almost all LNG was sold at prices tied to oil, around 98% in 2000. The Messy, Confusing Future of TV? It’s Here Wal-Mart Stores Inc reported lower quarterly margins after it cut prices and invested heavily on expanding its e- commerce operations, and its shares fell nearly 3 percent. Americans are buying more food at Walmart Sempra Energy has reached a deal to buy Oncor for $9.45 billion after swooping in to snatch the power- transmission company away from Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. U.S. Clears First Copycat Biotech Drug, Jolting Sector Novartis’s Zarxio could begin a wave of lower-cost versions of expensive drugs Lower-priced copies of biotech drugs are estimated to save the U.S. $47 billion over the next 10 years, according to consulting firm Avalere Health LLC. Unlike regular pills, biotechnology drugs haven’t faced generic competition when their patents expire because they are much harder to copy, and because regulators until now couldn’t figure out how to approve knockoffs that were highly similar but not exact replicas. The knockoffs are known as “biosimilars.” Total Buys Maersk Oil for $5 Billion French energy company will also assume $2.5 billion of Maersk Oil’s debt The deal will help Total bolster its position among the world’s largest oil companies, potentially boosting its earnings and cash flow and shoring up its ability to pay dividends. Japan in race to build driverless tractor Greying farmers, rural exodus and food self- sufficiency behind drive for ‘robo-tractors’ Village Voice print edition falls silent US alternative newspapers have been hard hit by shift to digital advertising era Wal-Mart and Google Partner to Challenge Amazon Hyundai Motor plans to launch a pickup truck in the United States as part of a broader plan to catch up with a shift away from sedans in one of the Korean automaker's most important markets Weak patient admissions that plagued U.S. hospital operators in the June quarter are likely to persist through 2018, as patients fret about soaring out-of-pocket costs and the future of Obamacare remains uncertain. Amazon Rewrites Rule Book for Grocers Gilead Sciences has agreed to pay about $11 billion for Kite Pharma and its promising new technology for harnessing the body’s immune system to fight cancer. Corn Hits 38-week Low
  • 18. The PunchLine... 18 August 30, 2017 Will Life Ever Be the Same? This publication is provided to you for information purposes and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot by guaranteed. The views reflected herein are subject to change without notice. No one connected to this publication accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. This publication may not be reproduced, distributed to any person for any purpose without express permission from TPL Advisory, LLC. Please cite source when quoting. All rights are reserved.