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Economic
Development
Strategy
FY 2014
Coming together is a beginning; keeping together is progress;
working together is success. – Henry Ford
Pennington County
Edwin Dale Hahn
Tel ((218) 686-3970
edwin.dale.hahn@gmail.com
504 Arnold Avenue South
Thief River Falls, MN 56701
Disclaimer: This document is a proof and is by no means comprehensive. All forward looking statements are projections and not matter
of fact. The views and opinions expressed are the author’s and are not representative of Jobs, Inc., the City of Thief River Falls, or
Pennington County.
Table of Contents
Contents
Development Summary________________________________________________________ 1
Economic Mapping ___________________________________________________________ 2
Workforce Housing ___________________________________________________________ 3
NCTC UAS Program __________________________________________________________ 4
UAS Industry ________________________________________________________________ 5
Regional Airport______________________________________________________________ 6
Gilbert Industrial Park _________________________________________________________ 7
New Sanford Medical Site______________________________________________________ 8
Downtown Redevelopment and Rehab ___________________________________________ 9
Key Contacts_______________________________________________________________ 10
Community Data ____________________________________________________________ 11
Population Data and Trends ___________________________________________________ 12
Population by Age Trends: 2000 to 2010 _________________________________________ 13
Population Projections _______________________________________________________ 14
Household Data and Trends ___________________________________________________ 15
Household by Age Trends: 2000 to 2010 _________________________________________ 16
Average Household Size______________________________________________________ 17
Household Projections _______________________________________________________ 18
Alternative Projection Based on Job Growth ______________________________________ 19
Households by Type _______________________________________________________ 20
2010 Income Data___________________________________________________________ 21
Household Income Distribution 2010 ____________________________________________ 22
Major Area Employers________________________________________________________ 23
Pennington County Labor Force Data ___________________________________________ 24
Employment and Wages by Industry ____________________________________________ 25
Average Employment & Wages for Market Area____________________________________ 26
Commuting Patterns of Area Workers ___________________________________________ 27
References ________________________________________________________________ 28
Contact Information__________________________________________________________ 29
Pg. 01 Development Summary
Development Summary
Strategic Highlights
This economic strategy is driven by three primary initiatives:
1. Attract and cultivate new and emerging industries.
2. Create housing and physical business infrastructure for current and future demand.
3. Maintain existing business health and community satisfaction.
Current Economic Conditions
Pennington County and Thief River Falls present these major economic assets:
Digi-Key, 6th largest electronics component distributor in the world, $1.5B annual sales, 2,800
employees.1
Arctic Cat, 1 of only 2 U.S. ATV and Snowmobile manufacturers, $670M annual sales, 1,300
employees.2
Sanford Health, new $60M Medical Center, 550 employees and support staff, 180 acres for
future development.3
Northland Community and Technical College, the Nation’s 1st public UAS education program,
UAS is projected to create 100,000 new jobs and be an $82B industry by 2025.4
Thief River Falls Regional Airport, ships 3 million packages per year, 900 acres for future
development.5
Thief River Falls has an unemployment rate of 4.2% (June 2012).6
Positioning
The hub for Pennington County, Thief River Falls is a regional center for commerce, education,
health, government and transportation in Northwest Minnesota.
Looking Ahead
A very low crime rate, excellent school system and positive economic outlook makes
Pennington County and Thief River Falls poised for workforce growth.
“A very low crime
rate, excellent
school system
and positive
economic outlook
makes
Pennington
County and Thief
River Falls poised
for workforce
growth.”
Pg. 02 Economic Mapping
Economic Mapping
Brief
Included for each proposal is an Economic Map which visually summarizes the relationship
between community support, financial commitment, risk, reward, and time.
Support
Described as Negative, Neutral or Positive based on historical community response and
atmosphere.
Investment
Defined as Small, Medium or Large relative to the financial commitment the community must
make.
Risk
Characterized as Low, Medium or High related to potential for failure.
Reward
Characterized as Low, Medium or High related to potential for gains.
Time
Defined as Short, Medium or Long relative to how long the proposal will take to mature.
Support
Investment
Risk
Reward
Time
Economic Map
Pg. 03 Workforce Housing
Workforce Housing
Positioning
Major employers in the community have experienced consistent growth the past 5 years. The
rate of job growth has exceed the rate of development for housing, resulting in a shortage for
the median workforce demographic. Digi-Key has stated its business is coupled to housing and
the shortage is affecting Digi-Key’s growth. New workforce housing must occur in order to
retain major employers and sustain the community.
Current Assets
As of late, there has been a focused effort to fill the housing need by the City and local
developers. Several housing projects are in motion and a number will mature in 2015. The
good health of major employers provides a relatively stable current local economy, which
developers may find attractive. Regional, Statewide and Nationwide press has created
exposure to developers interested in new construction and rehab projects.
Potential Threats
1. Major employer departure or downsizing.
2. Community resistance to projects (NIMBY).
3. Lengthy process of government action/funding.
4. Developers fearing financial risk/instability in the community.
FY2014 Targets
1. Secure City ownership of 1 property for multi or single family housing.
2. Gain approval from City Council to build infrastructure for 1 housing development.
3. Apply for FY2014 FHLB and MN Housing funding programs.
4. Reach out to and establish relationships with local, regional, state, and nationwide
housing developers and funders.Additional housing
is a priority to meet
the demand for new
employees and
growing local
business.
Support
Investment
Risk
Reward
Time
Housing
Pg. 04 NCTC UAS Program
NCTC UAS Program
Positioning
Northland Community and Technical College is a literal “Pioneer” in Unmanned Aerial Systems
education. The partnership between the community and NCTC is to be cultivated for mutual
future growth.
Current Assets
NCTC has established the nation’s first public UAS maintenance program and is miles ahead
of other schools in this field of study. Namely in Geospatial Information & Imagery, NCTC
recently received $10M in funding to grow this program. In 2015 a new, 20,600 sqft. facility is
planned for the aviation program with $6M in project funding from the State of MN.
Potential Threats
1. Closure or relocation of NCTC UAS program.
2. Competition from other UAS Schools (Lake Superior College).
3. Insufficient NCTC student enrollment and reduced MNSCU funding.
FY2014 Targets
1. Build relationship between community and NCTC.
2. Re-energize community oversight committee.
3. Improve communication with NCTC with structured monthly meetings.
A student executes
maintence on an
aircraft engine in
one of NCTC's
facilites. The
college's aviation
facilities total
86,000 square feet.
Support
Investment
Risk
Reward
Time
UAS Education
Pg. 05 UAS Industry
UAS Industry
Positioning
The Unmanned Aerial Systems industry is projected to grow into an $82.1 billion industry
between 2015 and 2025. By 2025, total job creation is estimated to be at 103,776 new
positions.4 Pennington County and Thief River falls are in a position to capitalize on this
growth.
Current Assets
In January 2014, The Federal Aviation Administration approved Grand Forks, ND with
allowance to test fly UAS in the local North Dakota airspace. This is a landmark award, as
Grand Forks is only one of six test sites in the entire nation granted this exception. Grand
Forks has partnered with Northrup Grumman on Grand Sky, a $300M UAS venture projected
to create 3,000 permanent new jobs. The UAS industry is exploding just 1 hour from Thief
River Falls. NCTC has a relationship with North Dakota’s UAS programs and with direct UAS
industry connections, the community can take a slice of the fresh UAS pie.
With an estimated 1,000 local employees laid off during the winter months, there is a standing
seasonal workforce. This local workforce is skilled in manufacturing, a definite need for the
emerging UAS industry in assembling UAS components and subsystems. UAS are heavily
loaded with state of the art electronic systems. A local UAS sensor manufacturer would
leverage Digi-Key’s close location as a benefit in their supply chain.
Potential Threats
1. Competition with Grand Forks, ND UAS development.
2. Large infrastructure investment for emerging UAS business.
3. Loss of employees from existing employers must be backfilled.
FY2014 Targets
1. Engage 5 UAS industry businesses and sell the benefits of building locally.
2. Have 1 UAS business visit and build a relationship with local representatives.
3. Have approved and launch a specific benefit package/strategy for 1 UAS business to
invest locally.
UAS are already
being used for:
Agriculture • Law
enforcement •
Telecommunication
• Aerial
imaging/mapping •
• Television news
coverage •
Environmental
monitoring • Oil and
gas exploration and
• Freight transport.
Support
Investment
Risk
Reward
Time
UAS Industry
Pg. 06 Regional Airport
Regional Airport
Positioning
In addition to passenger air service, Thief River Falls regional airport has the potential to
become Northwest Minnesota’s air hub for industrial service and commercial growth.
Current Assets
The regional airport is currently under an Essential Air Service contract for passenger travel.
The airport ships 3 million packages per year, and is a distribution point for DHL, UPS, and
FEDEX. A $2.2M, 19,800 sqft. Multi-Purpose Hangar was constructed in 2010. The runway
was newly resurfaced in 2012. The NCTC Aviation Program Campus is on the airport property
and is slated to receive a $6M facilities improvement bond.
Potential Threats
1. Loss of EAS funding.
2. NCTC Aviation program close or relocation.
3. Reduction in Digi-Key, UPS, FEDEX, DHL commercial shipments.
FY2014 Targets
1. Retain EAS contract, build relationships with current passenger carrier and other
potential carriers.
2. Stimulate Airport Authority to facilitate commercial growth.
3. Fund and launch a “Fly TRF” marketing campaign.
4. Secure contract adding 1 new commercial business to airport property.
The Regional
Airport terminal
was recenlty
remodled and
runway resurfaced
in 2012. Its facilities
are primed for new
business.
$2.2M Hangar 900 Acre Property
Support
Investment
Risk
Reward
Time
Airport
Pg. 07 Gilbert Industrial Park
Gilbert Industrial Park
Positioning
The Gilbert Industrial Park is cooperatively owned by the City of Thief River Falls and Jobs,
Inc. The Park has been designated to be developed as commercial-industrial space.
Current Assets
There are 17 available lots in the Park. The lots are currently zoned and platted as I2-
Industrial. The lots are “Shovel Ready” with storm sewer, water, and electrical utilities stubbed
in. The central traffic corridor through the Park is Greenwood Street and is paved. A
competitive price point per lot is below current market value. The Park is located very close to
major employers, Digi-Key and Arctic Cat, as well as the main trucking arteries of Greenwood,
HWY 32 south, and HWY 59 north.
Potential Threats
1. Agricultural land owners in the area may oppose expansion.
2. City taxes and assessments may push business to locate outside City limits.
FY2014 Targets
1. Promote Shovel Ready Site on dedicated Gilbert Industrial Park City webpage.
2. Secure sale of 1 lot to a commercial-industrial business for development.
The Park is shovel
ready with utilities
for industrial
development.
Support
Investment
Risk
Reward
Time
Gilbert Industrial Park
Pg. 08 New Sanford Medical Site
New Sanford Medical Site
Positioning
Sanford Health has invested $60M into a new 242 acre site. The site will employ an estimated
600, near a 115 acre location available for retail development. The hospital is currently using
60 acres, with approximately 180 acres open for future use.
Current Assets
Sanford leadership has expressed an interest in supporting the community. Discussions have
communicated initiatives to benefit the local economy and resident’s health. A cooperative plan
with Sanford to cultivate and develop the new site must be established.
Potential Threats
1. Local residents opposing development.
2. Funding required to build infrastructure.
3. Delayed decision making process regarding development plan.
FY2014 Targets
1. Schedule and attend monthly Sanford Site Development Committee meetings.
2. With input from community, City, County, release a cooperative development plan for
the site.
3. Gain approval for Phase 1 of the plan, 2015 completion.
The new Sanford
Hospital will create
an estitmated 210
new long term jobs.
Originally Proposed Sanford Site with
Housing and Commercial Development.
Support
Investment
Risk
Reward
Time
Sanford Site
Pg. 09 Downtown Redevelopment and Rehab
Downtown Redevelopment and Rehab
Positioning
Downtown Thief River Falls defines the City’s energy and presents an opportunity to revitalize
the community’s spirit. Empty, decrepit downtown buildings are blight and need rehab to
reverse stalled growth.
Current Assets
The downtown area has a bustling and eclectic feel unique to the county. Downtown has
several empty units and buildings in need of rehabilitation. It provides a centralized location for
apartment style housing with close proximity to retail business and employers. High energy
business or entertainment should be located downtown to boost community feel. The old
hospital buildings and grounds have great potential for repurposing.
Potential Threats
1. Major building and utility rehab may be costly.
2. Loss of current business tenants.
3. Building owners not willing to cooperate with rehab.
FY2014 Targets
1. Using the TRF Community Development Loan Program, rehab 1 unit downtown with a
new business tenant.
2. Build relationships with developers to specifically revitalize downtown.
3. Connect with 1 developer to demolish/repurpose/rehab old hospital site.
4. Launch “Downtown Living” marketing/rehab campaign to draw publicity to downtown.
Support
Investment
Risk
Reward
Time
Downtown
The community has
completed several
successful rebhab
projects including
the Soo Line Depot
and Carnegie
Library.
Pg. 10 Key Contacts
Key Contacts
Workforce Housing
Margaret Kaplan, Director of Community Development, Minnesota Housing Finance Agency, (651) 296-3617
Hal Clapp, Program/Loan Officer, Greater Minnesota Housing Fund, (651) 221-1997
Bill Vanderwall, Capacity Building Manager, Minnesota Housing Partnership, (651) 925-5541
Rick Bloxham, Homeownership Manager, Federal Home Loan Bank, (800) 544-3452, ext. 1198
NCTC UAS Program
Daniel J. Klug, Chief Development Officer, Northland Community & Technical College, (218) 793-2465
James Retka, Dean of Career and Technical Education, Northland Community & Technical College, (218) 683-8643
UAS Industry
Forrest White, Northrup Grumman, (701) 885-2220
Florent Martel, Principal Engineer, Machine Visionaries, LLC, (320) 300-0302
Daniel J. Klug, Chief Development Officer, Northland Community & Technical College, (218) 793-2465
Regional Airport
Alexandre-Thiery Girard, Director, Project Management, Explorer Solutions, (514) 971-2764
Mark Borseth, Community Services Director, City of Thief River Falls, (218) 684-1012
Joe Hendrick, Airport Manager, TVF Airport Authority, (218) 684-1013
Gilbert Industrial Park
Mike Moore, Jobs Inc., (218) 779-7858
Maryel Anderson, Anderson Realty, (218) 681-4087
Mark Borseth, Community Services Director, City of Thief River Falls, (218) 684-1012
New Sanford Medical Site
Rob Lovejoy, Chief Operating Officer, Sanford Health, (218) 681-4240
Downtown Redevelopment and Rehab
John Shoffner, Director, Office of Business Development, DEED, (651) 259-7445
Mark Borseth, Community Services Director, City of Thief River Falls, (218) 684-1012
Arlen Kangas, Chief Economist, Midwest Minnesota Community Development Corporation, akangas@mmcdc.com
Pg. 11 Community Data
Community Data
Sources
A variety of resources were utilized to obtain information for this section. Data sources
included:7
 U.S. Census Bureau.
 Estimates and projections from the State Demographer.
 Records and data from the City of Thief River Falls.
 Records and data maintained by Pennington County.
 Data provided by HousingLink.
 Interviews with elected officials and staff from the City of Thief River Falls.
 Interviews with community leaders.
 Interviews with people familiar with the area’s economic conditions including
employers, property managers, and developers.
 Area housing agencies.
 Rental property owner surveys.
Market Area Overview
In addition to City of Thief River Falls, this section also examines demographic information for
a market area that surrounds the City. Referred to in this Study as the “Market Area,” it
includes 14 Cities and 49 Townships in Pennington, Marshall, Red Lake and Kittson Counties.7
Pg. 12 Population Data and Trends
Population Data and Trends
Table 1 Population Trends - 1980 to 2010
1980
Population
1990
Population
2000
Population
% Change
1990-2000
2010
Population
% Change
2000-2010
Thief River Falls
9,105 8,010 8,410 5.0% 8,573 1.9%
Market Area
27,651 23,921 23,679 -1.0% 23,627 -0.2%
Pennington Co.
15,258 13,306 13,584 2.1% 13,930 2.5%
Source: U.S. Census.
Pg. 13 Population by Age Trends: 2000 to 2010
Population by Age Trends: 2000 to 2010
Table 2 Population by Age - 2000 to 2010
City of Thief River Falls Market Area
Age 2000 2010 Change 2000 2010 Change
0-19 2,234 2,190 -44 / -2.0% 6,635 6,249 -386 / -5.8%
20-24 637 642 5 / 0.8% 1,342 1,214 -128 / -9.5%
25-34 1,046 1,210 164 / 15.7% 2,598 2,817 219 / 8.4%
35-44 1,152 926 -226 / -19.6% 3,469 2,801 -668 / -19.3%
45-54 1,041 1,122 81 / 7.8% 3,250 3,500 250 / 7.7%
55-64 716 967 251 / 35.1% 2,261 3,028 767 / 33.9%
65-74 643 654 11 / 1.7% 1,846 1,930 84 / 4.6%
75-84 607 512 -95 / -15.7% 1,571 1,362 -209 / -13.3%
85+ 334 350 16 / 4.8% 707 726 19 / 2.7%
Total 8,410 8,573 163 / 1.9% 23,679 23,627 -52 / -0.2%
*Note the significant reduction in age groups 0-24 and 35-44 and a significant increase in age groups 55-
64 during this 10 year period. A key to future economic health in the community will be to retain the 0-24
and 35-44 groups in order to establish a sustainable consumer base.
Pg. 14 Population Projections
Population Projections
Table 3 Population Projections Through 2015
2010 Population
2015 Projection
from 10-year trend
2015 Projection
from 20-year trend
2015 Projection
State Demographer
Thief River Falls
8,573 8,656 8,724 8,969
Market Area
23,627 23,601 23,554 24,171
Pennington Co.
13,930 14,107 14,093 14,420
Source: U.S. Census; Community Partners Research, Inc.; MN State Demographer.
Pg. 15 Household Data and Trends
Household Data and Trends
Table 4 Household Trends - 1980 to 2010
1980
Households
1990
Households
2000
Households
% Change
1990-2000
2010
Households
% Change
2000-2010
Thief River Falls
3,498 3,366 3,619 7.5% 3,802 5.1%
Market Area
9,630 9,278 9,647 4.0% 9,946 3.1%
Pennington Co.
5,437 5,173 5,525 6.8% 5,836 5.6%
Source: U.S. Census.
According to the 2010 Census, Thief River Falls added 183 households between 2000 and
2010. This represented household growth of 5.1%.
Pg. 16 Household by Age Trends: 2000 to 2010
Household by Age Trends: 2000 to 2010
Table 5 Households by Age - 2000 to 2010
City of Thief River Falls Market Area
Age 2000 2010 Change 2000 2010 Change
15-24 338 328 -10 / -3.0% 608 504 -104 / 17.1%
25-34 596 671 75 / 12.6% 1,366 1,460 94 / 6.9%
35-44 643 559 -84 / -13.1% 1,882 1,602 -280 / -14.9%
45-54 603 674 71 / 11.8% 1,816 1,959 143 / 7.9%
55-64 434 573 139 / 32.0% 1,342 1,750 408 / 30.4%
65-74 423 434 11 / 2.6% 1,163 1,237 74 / 6.4%
75-84 417 359 -58 / -13.9% 1,098 971 -127 / 11.6%
85+ 165 204 39 / 23.6% 372 463 91 / 24.5%
Total 3,619 3,802 183 / 5.1% 9,647 9,946 299 / 3.1%
*Note the significant reduction in age groups 15-24 and 35-44 and a significant increase in age
groups 55-64 during this 10 year period. A key to future economic health in the community will
be to retain the 15-24 and 35-44 groups in order to establish a sustainable consumer base.
Pg. 17 Average Household Size
Average Household Size
Table 6 Average Number of Persons Per Household - 1980 to 2010
1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census
Thief River Falls
2.50 2.28 2.21 2.18
Market Area
2.81 2.51 2.37 2.33
Pennington County
2.74 2.50 2.38 2.33
Source: U.S. Census.
Pg. 18 Household Projections
Household Projections
Trend-based Projections
Table 7 Trend-Based Household Projections Through 2015
2010 Census 2015 Projection
(from 10-year trend)
2015 Projection
(from 20-year trend)
Thief River Falls
3,802 3,900 3,925
Market Area
9,946 10,100 10,125
Pennington County
5,836 6,000 6,025
Source: U.S. Census; Community Partners Research, Inc.
Over the past twenty years, the City has had a relatively consistent rate of household growth.
As a result, the projected range of growth is well-defined, regardless of the time period used in
the calculation. On an average basis, this would equate to 20 to 25 additional households per
year.7
Pg. 19 Alternative Projection Based on Job Growth
Alternative Projection Based on Job Growth
Table 8 Market Area Household Growth - Potential Ranges
Low-end Growth Average
Annual Range
High-end Growth Average
Annual Range
Market Area
31 to 36 Households 72 to 90 Households
Source: Community Partners Research, Inc.
Although the trend-based calculations presented earlier can be supported by patterns over the
past 30 years, an argument can also be made that near-term growth will occur at a
significantly faster rate. This change in the rate of growth would be driven by job creation,
namely the consistent growth of Digi-Key Corporation. This has the potential to alter the
traditional pattern, and result in an above-average in-migration of people and households.
In summary, the projection based on job growth potential yields a forecast that the entire
Market Area could add between 72 and 90 households per year, a level of growth that is
considerably higher than past trends would suggest.7
Pg. 20 Households by Type
Households by Type
Table 11 Market Area Household Composition From 2000 to 2010
2000
Census
2010
Census
Change
Family Households
Married Couple with own children
2,226 1,846 -380
Single Parent with own children
783 919 +136
Married Couple w/o own children
2,915 3,113 +198
Family Householder no spouse w/o own children
359 444 +85
Total Families
6,283 6,322 +39
Non-Family Households
Single Person
2,903 3,070 +167
Two or more persons
461 554 +93
Total Non-Families
3,364 3,624 +260
Source: U.S. Census.
Pg. 21 2010 Income Data
2010 Income Data
Table 15 Median Household Income: 2000 to 2010
2000 Median 2010 Median % Change
Thief River Falls
$30,759 $36,218 17.7%
Pennington County
$34,216 $44,926 31.3%
Minnesota
$47,111 $57,243 21.5%
Source: U.S. Census; 2010 ACS 5-year survey.
Table 16 Median Family Income: 2000 to 2010
2000 Median 2010 Median % Change
Thief River Falls
$40,908 $52,292 27.8%
Pennington County
$43,936 $56,820 29.3%
Minnesota
$56,874 $71,307 25.4%
Source: U.S. Census; 2010 ACS 5-year survey.
Household income represents all independent households, including people living alone and
unrelated individuals in a housing unit. Families are two or more related individuals living in a
household. No median income information was available for the aggregated jurisdictions that
form the Market Area.7
Pg. 22 Household Income Distribution 2010
Household Income Distribution 2010
Table 17 Market Area Household Income Distribution - 2000 to 2010
Household Income
Number of Households
2000
Number of Households
in 2010
Change 2000 to 2010
$0 - $14,999
1,932 1,338 -594
$15,000 - $24,999
1,734
1,224 -510
$25,000 - $34,999
1,348 1,325 -23
$35,000 - $49,999
1,802 1,460 -342
$50,000 - $74,999
1,888 2,247 +359
$75,000 - $99,999
575 1,357 +782
$100,000+
343 939 +596
Total
9,622 9,890 +268
Source: 2000 Census; 2010 American Community Survey 5-year sample.
Pg. 23 Major Area Employers
Major Area Employers
Most of the job opportunities in the Market Area are located in Thief River Falls. Major
employers with 100 or more employees include:
 Digi-Key Corporation
 Arctic Cat, Inc.
 Sanford Health
 Seven Clans Casino Hotel and Waterpark
 School District #564
 Pennington County
 Northern Pride, Inc.
 Altru Clinic
 Northland Community and Technical College
 City of Thief River Falls
 CP Rail
 Dean Foods/Land O’Lakes
Source: Community Profiles, Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic
Development.
Pg. 24 Pennington County Labor Force Data
Pennington County Labor Force Data
Table 26 Pennington County Labor Force Data: 2000 - 2011
Year
Labor
Force
Employed Unemployed Unemployment
Rate - County
Unemployment
Rate - MN
Unemployment
Rate - US
2000
7,672 7,219 453 5.9% 3.1% 4.0%
2001
7,931 7,523 408 5.1% 3.8% 4.7%
2002
7,961 7,491 470 5.9% 4.5% 5.8%
2003
8,043 7,554 489 6.1% 4.9% 6.0%
2004
8,146 7,620 526 6.5% 4.6% 5.6%
2005
8,197 7,733 464 5.7% 4.2% 5.1%
2006
8,375 7,906 469 5.6% 4.1% 4.6%
2007
8,565 7,966 599 7.0% 4.6% 4.6%
2008
8,750 8,135 615 7.0% 5.4% 5.8%
2009
9,008 8,181 827 9.2% 8.1% 9.3%
2010
9,233 8,474 759 8.2% 7.3% 9.6%
2011
9,463 8,801 662 7.0% 6.5% 8.9%
Source: MN Department of Employment and Economic Development.
There has been significant growth in the size of the County’s available labor force over the past decade.
When comparing 2011 to 2000, the labor force increased by 1,791 people, or more than 23%.
Pg. 25 Employment and Wages by Industry
Employment and Wages by Industry
Table 28 Thief River Falls Average Annual Wages by Industry - 2010
Industry Employment Average Annual Wage
Total All Industry
7,645 $37,596
Construction
130 $49,036
Manufacturing
1,031 $41,340
Trade, Transportation, Utilities
3,602 $39,780
Financial Activities
181 $39,000
Professional and Business Services
115 $32,240
Education and Health Services
517 $41,184
Leisure and Hospitality
358 $10,140
Other Services
194 $15,288
Public Administration
272 $46,696
Source: MN Department of Employment and Economic Development.
The single largest industry sector was Trade, Transportation and Utilities, with more than 3,600
employees in 2010. Presumably, most of the workers at Digi-Key, the region’s largest
employer, were classified within this sector. The second largest industry, Manufacturing, had
more than 1,000 workers. It is assumed that many Arctic Cat employees would be classified
under Manufacturing.
Pg. 26 Average Employment & Wages for Market Area
Average Employment & Wages for Market Area
Table 29 Average Employment and Wages for all Industry - 2010
Industry Employment Average Annual Wage
Thief River Falls 7,645 $37,596
Warren 872 $34,476
Red Lake Falls 666 $26,988
Grygla 138 $32,500
Middle River 126 $23,244
Newfolden 99 $28,132
Oklee 93 $31,304
St. Hilaire 74 $43,368
Plummer 36 $21,580
Source: MN Department of Employment and Economic Development.
Average annual wages vary widely between the Market Area communities.7
Pg. 27 Commuting Patterns of Area Workers
Commuting Patterns of Area Workers
Table 30 Commuting Times for Thief River Falls Area Residents - 2010
Travel Time
City of
Residence
Less than 10
minutes
10 to 19 minutes 20 to 39
minutes
40 minutes or
more
Total
Thief River Falls 2,219 / 51.1% 1,489 / 34.3% 395 / 9.1% 243 / 5.6% 4,225
Warren 450 / 56.3% 108 / 13.5% 114 / 14.3% 127 / 15.9% 799
Red Lake Falls 238 / 34.8% 58 / 8.5% 294 / 43.0% 93 / 13.6% 683
Grygla 64 / 54.2% 0 / 0% 14 / 11.9% 40 / 33.9% 118
Middle River 31 / 21.7% 5 / 3.5% 74 / 51.7% 33 / 23.1% 143
Newfolden 25 / 21.4% 19 / 16.2% 58 / 49.6% 15 / 12.8% 117
Oklee 61 / 27.7% 34 / 15.5% 72 / 32.7% 53 / 24.1% 220
St. Hilaire 13 / 11.3% 76 / 66.1% 14 / 12.2% 12 / 10.4% 115
Plummer 39 / 28.5% 30 / 21.9% 49 / 35.8% 19 / 13.9% 137
Source: 2010 American Community Survey 5-year sample.
Pg. 28 References
References
1. “40 Years of Superior Service.” Digi-Key Corporation.
http://www.digikey.com/us/en/info/Company-Profile.html
2. “Fiscal 2013 Annual Report.” Arctic Cat, Inc. June 2013.
3. “Sanford Thief River Falls Medical Clinic.” Sanford Health.
http://www.sanfordhealth.org/Construction/ThiefRiverFallsMedicalCenter
4. “The Economic Impact of Unmanned Aircraft Systems Integration in the United States.”
Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International (AUVSI). March 2013.
5. “Airport Authority Formed.” Thief River Falls Regional Airport. http://www.trfairport.com/ July
2013
6. “Economy in Thief River Falls, Minnesota.” Sperling’s Best Places.
http://www.bestplaces.net/economy/city/minnesota/thief_river_falls June 2012.
7. “City of Thief River Falls Housing Study Update.” Community Partners Research,
Inc. February 2012.
Pg. 29 Contact Information
Contact Information
Edwin Dale Hahn
504 Arnold Ave. South
Thief River Falls, MN 56701
Tel (218) 686-3970
edwin.dale.hahn@gmail.com
Disclaimer: This document is a proof and is by no means comprehensive. All forward looking
statements are projections and not matter of fact. The views and opinions expressed are the
author’s and are not representative of Jobs, Inc., the City of Thief River Falls, or Pennington
County, MN.

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TRF Economic Strategy 1a

  • 1. Economic Development Strategy FY 2014 Coming together is a beginning; keeping together is progress; working together is success. – Henry Ford Pennington County Edwin Dale Hahn Tel ((218) 686-3970 edwin.dale.hahn@gmail.com 504 Arnold Avenue South Thief River Falls, MN 56701 Disclaimer: This document is a proof and is by no means comprehensive. All forward looking statements are projections and not matter of fact. The views and opinions expressed are the author’s and are not representative of Jobs, Inc., the City of Thief River Falls, or Pennington County.
  • 2. Table of Contents Contents Development Summary________________________________________________________ 1 Economic Mapping ___________________________________________________________ 2 Workforce Housing ___________________________________________________________ 3 NCTC UAS Program __________________________________________________________ 4 UAS Industry ________________________________________________________________ 5 Regional Airport______________________________________________________________ 6 Gilbert Industrial Park _________________________________________________________ 7 New Sanford Medical Site______________________________________________________ 8 Downtown Redevelopment and Rehab ___________________________________________ 9 Key Contacts_______________________________________________________________ 10 Community Data ____________________________________________________________ 11 Population Data and Trends ___________________________________________________ 12 Population by Age Trends: 2000 to 2010 _________________________________________ 13 Population Projections _______________________________________________________ 14 Household Data and Trends ___________________________________________________ 15 Household by Age Trends: 2000 to 2010 _________________________________________ 16 Average Household Size______________________________________________________ 17 Household Projections _______________________________________________________ 18 Alternative Projection Based on Job Growth ______________________________________ 19 Households by Type _______________________________________________________ 20 2010 Income Data___________________________________________________________ 21 Household Income Distribution 2010 ____________________________________________ 22 Major Area Employers________________________________________________________ 23 Pennington County Labor Force Data ___________________________________________ 24 Employment and Wages by Industry ____________________________________________ 25 Average Employment & Wages for Market Area____________________________________ 26 Commuting Patterns of Area Workers ___________________________________________ 27 References ________________________________________________________________ 28 Contact Information__________________________________________________________ 29
  • 3. Pg. 01 Development Summary Development Summary Strategic Highlights This economic strategy is driven by three primary initiatives: 1. Attract and cultivate new and emerging industries. 2. Create housing and physical business infrastructure for current and future demand. 3. Maintain existing business health and community satisfaction. Current Economic Conditions Pennington County and Thief River Falls present these major economic assets: Digi-Key, 6th largest electronics component distributor in the world, $1.5B annual sales, 2,800 employees.1 Arctic Cat, 1 of only 2 U.S. ATV and Snowmobile manufacturers, $670M annual sales, 1,300 employees.2 Sanford Health, new $60M Medical Center, 550 employees and support staff, 180 acres for future development.3 Northland Community and Technical College, the Nation’s 1st public UAS education program, UAS is projected to create 100,000 new jobs and be an $82B industry by 2025.4 Thief River Falls Regional Airport, ships 3 million packages per year, 900 acres for future development.5 Thief River Falls has an unemployment rate of 4.2% (June 2012).6 Positioning The hub for Pennington County, Thief River Falls is a regional center for commerce, education, health, government and transportation in Northwest Minnesota. Looking Ahead A very low crime rate, excellent school system and positive economic outlook makes Pennington County and Thief River Falls poised for workforce growth. “A very low crime rate, excellent school system and positive economic outlook makes Pennington County and Thief River Falls poised for workforce growth.”
  • 4. Pg. 02 Economic Mapping Economic Mapping Brief Included for each proposal is an Economic Map which visually summarizes the relationship between community support, financial commitment, risk, reward, and time. Support Described as Negative, Neutral or Positive based on historical community response and atmosphere. Investment Defined as Small, Medium or Large relative to the financial commitment the community must make. Risk Characterized as Low, Medium or High related to potential for failure. Reward Characterized as Low, Medium or High related to potential for gains. Time Defined as Short, Medium or Long relative to how long the proposal will take to mature. Support Investment Risk Reward Time Economic Map
  • 5. Pg. 03 Workforce Housing Workforce Housing Positioning Major employers in the community have experienced consistent growth the past 5 years. The rate of job growth has exceed the rate of development for housing, resulting in a shortage for the median workforce demographic. Digi-Key has stated its business is coupled to housing and the shortage is affecting Digi-Key’s growth. New workforce housing must occur in order to retain major employers and sustain the community. Current Assets As of late, there has been a focused effort to fill the housing need by the City and local developers. Several housing projects are in motion and a number will mature in 2015. The good health of major employers provides a relatively stable current local economy, which developers may find attractive. Regional, Statewide and Nationwide press has created exposure to developers interested in new construction and rehab projects. Potential Threats 1. Major employer departure or downsizing. 2. Community resistance to projects (NIMBY). 3. Lengthy process of government action/funding. 4. Developers fearing financial risk/instability in the community. FY2014 Targets 1. Secure City ownership of 1 property for multi or single family housing. 2. Gain approval from City Council to build infrastructure for 1 housing development. 3. Apply for FY2014 FHLB and MN Housing funding programs. 4. Reach out to and establish relationships with local, regional, state, and nationwide housing developers and funders.Additional housing is a priority to meet the demand for new employees and growing local business. Support Investment Risk Reward Time Housing
  • 6. Pg. 04 NCTC UAS Program NCTC UAS Program Positioning Northland Community and Technical College is a literal “Pioneer” in Unmanned Aerial Systems education. The partnership between the community and NCTC is to be cultivated for mutual future growth. Current Assets NCTC has established the nation’s first public UAS maintenance program and is miles ahead of other schools in this field of study. Namely in Geospatial Information & Imagery, NCTC recently received $10M in funding to grow this program. In 2015 a new, 20,600 sqft. facility is planned for the aviation program with $6M in project funding from the State of MN. Potential Threats 1. Closure or relocation of NCTC UAS program. 2. Competition from other UAS Schools (Lake Superior College). 3. Insufficient NCTC student enrollment and reduced MNSCU funding. FY2014 Targets 1. Build relationship between community and NCTC. 2. Re-energize community oversight committee. 3. Improve communication with NCTC with structured monthly meetings. A student executes maintence on an aircraft engine in one of NCTC's facilites. The college's aviation facilities total 86,000 square feet. Support Investment Risk Reward Time UAS Education
  • 7. Pg. 05 UAS Industry UAS Industry Positioning The Unmanned Aerial Systems industry is projected to grow into an $82.1 billion industry between 2015 and 2025. By 2025, total job creation is estimated to be at 103,776 new positions.4 Pennington County and Thief River falls are in a position to capitalize on this growth. Current Assets In January 2014, The Federal Aviation Administration approved Grand Forks, ND with allowance to test fly UAS in the local North Dakota airspace. This is a landmark award, as Grand Forks is only one of six test sites in the entire nation granted this exception. Grand Forks has partnered with Northrup Grumman on Grand Sky, a $300M UAS venture projected to create 3,000 permanent new jobs. The UAS industry is exploding just 1 hour from Thief River Falls. NCTC has a relationship with North Dakota’s UAS programs and with direct UAS industry connections, the community can take a slice of the fresh UAS pie. With an estimated 1,000 local employees laid off during the winter months, there is a standing seasonal workforce. This local workforce is skilled in manufacturing, a definite need for the emerging UAS industry in assembling UAS components and subsystems. UAS are heavily loaded with state of the art electronic systems. A local UAS sensor manufacturer would leverage Digi-Key’s close location as a benefit in their supply chain. Potential Threats 1. Competition with Grand Forks, ND UAS development. 2. Large infrastructure investment for emerging UAS business. 3. Loss of employees from existing employers must be backfilled. FY2014 Targets 1. Engage 5 UAS industry businesses and sell the benefits of building locally. 2. Have 1 UAS business visit and build a relationship with local representatives. 3. Have approved and launch a specific benefit package/strategy for 1 UAS business to invest locally. UAS are already being used for: Agriculture • Law enforcement • Telecommunication • Aerial imaging/mapping • • Television news coverage • Environmental monitoring • Oil and gas exploration and • Freight transport. Support Investment Risk Reward Time UAS Industry
  • 8. Pg. 06 Regional Airport Regional Airport Positioning In addition to passenger air service, Thief River Falls regional airport has the potential to become Northwest Minnesota’s air hub for industrial service and commercial growth. Current Assets The regional airport is currently under an Essential Air Service contract for passenger travel. The airport ships 3 million packages per year, and is a distribution point for DHL, UPS, and FEDEX. A $2.2M, 19,800 sqft. Multi-Purpose Hangar was constructed in 2010. The runway was newly resurfaced in 2012. The NCTC Aviation Program Campus is on the airport property and is slated to receive a $6M facilities improvement bond. Potential Threats 1. Loss of EAS funding. 2. NCTC Aviation program close or relocation. 3. Reduction in Digi-Key, UPS, FEDEX, DHL commercial shipments. FY2014 Targets 1. Retain EAS contract, build relationships with current passenger carrier and other potential carriers. 2. Stimulate Airport Authority to facilitate commercial growth. 3. Fund and launch a “Fly TRF” marketing campaign. 4. Secure contract adding 1 new commercial business to airport property. The Regional Airport terminal was recenlty remodled and runway resurfaced in 2012. Its facilities are primed for new business. $2.2M Hangar 900 Acre Property Support Investment Risk Reward Time Airport
  • 9. Pg. 07 Gilbert Industrial Park Gilbert Industrial Park Positioning The Gilbert Industrial Park is cooperatively owned by the City of Thief River Falls and Jobs, Inc. The Park has been designated to be developed as commercial-industrial space. Current Assets There are 17 available lots in the Park. The lots are currently zoned and platted as I2- Industrial. The lots are “Shovel Ready” with storm sewer, water, and electrical utilities stubbed in. The central traffic corridor through the Park is Greenwood Street and is paved. A competitive price point per lot is below current market value. The Park is located very close to major employers, Digi-Key and Arctic Cat, as well as the main trucking arteries of Greenwood, HWY 32 south, and HWY 59 north. Potential Threats 1. Agricultural land owners in the area may oppose expansion. 2. City taxes and assessments may push business to locate outside City limits. FY2014 Targets 1. Promote Shovel Ready Site on dedicated Gilbert Industrial Park City webpage. 2. Secure sale of 1 lot to a commercial-industrial business for development. The Park is shovel ready with utilities for industrial development. Support Investment Risk Reward Time Gilbert Industrial Park
  • 10. Pg. 08 New Sanford Medical Site New Sanford Medical Site Positioning Sanford Health has invested $60M into a new 242 acre site. The site will employ an estimated 600, near a 115 acre location available for retail development. The hospital is currently using 60 acres, with approximately 180 acres open for future use. Current Assets Sanford leadership has expressed an interest in supporting the community. Discussions have communicated initiatives to benefit the local economy and resident’s health. A cooperative plan with Sanford to cultivate and develop the new site must be established. Potential Threats 1. Local residents opposing development. 2. Funding required to build infrastructure. 3. Delayed decision making process regarding development plan. FY2014 Targets 1. Schedule and attend monthly Sanford Site Development Committee meetings. 2. With input from community, City, County, release a cooperative development plan for the site. 3. Gain approval for Phase 1 of the plan, 2015 completion. The new Sanford Hospital will create an estitmated 210 new long term jobs. Originally Proposed Sanford Site with Housing and Commercial Development. Support Investment Risk Reward Time Sanford Site
  • 11. Pg. 09 Downtown Redevelopment and Rehab Downtown Redevelopment and Rehab Positioning Downtown Thief River Falls defines the City’s energy and presents an opportunity to revitalize the community’s spirit. Empty, decrepit downtown buildings are blight and need rehab to reverse stalled growth. Current Assets The downtown area has a bustling and eclectic feel unique to the county. Downtown has several empty units and buildings in need of rehabilitation. It provides a centralized location for apartment style housing with close proximity to retail business and employers. High energy business or entertainment should be located downtown to boost community feel. The old hospital buildings and grounds have great potential for repurposing. Potential Threats 1. Major building and utility rehab may be costly. 2. Loss of current business tenants. 3. Building owners not willing to cooperate with rehab. FY2014 Targets 1. Using the TRF Community Development Loan Program, rehab 1 unit downtown with a new business tenant. 2. Build relationships with developers to specifically revitalize downtown. 3. Connect with 1 developer to demolish/repurpose/rehab old hospital site. 4. Launch “Downtown Living” marketing/rehab campaign to draw publicity to downtown. Support Investment Risk Reward Time Downtown The community has completed several successful rebhab projects including the Soo Line Depot and Carnegie Library.
  • 12. Pg. 10 Key Contacts Key Contacts Workforce Housing Margaret Kaplan, Director of Community Development, Minnesota Housing Finance Agency, (651) 296-3617 Hal Clapp, Program/Loan Officer, Greater Minnesota Housing Fund, (651) 221-1997 Bill Vanderwall, Capacity Building Manager, Minnesota Housing Partnership, (651) 925-5541 Rick Bloxham, Homeownership Manager, Federal Home Loan Bank, (800) 544-3452, ext. 1198 NCTC UAS Program Daniel J. Klug, Chief Development Officer, Northland Community & Technical College, (218) 793-2465 James Retka, Dean of Career and Technical Education, Northland Community & Technical College, (218) 683-8643 UAS Industry Forrest White, Northrup Grumman, (701) 885-2220 Florent Martel, Principal Engineer, Machine Visionaries, LLC, (320) 300-0302 Daniel J. Klug, Chief Development Officer, Northland Community & Technical College, (218) 793-2465 Regional Airport Alexandre-Thiery Girard, Director, Project Management, Explorer Solutions, (514) 971-2764 Mark Borseth, Community Services Director, City of Thief River Falls, (218) 684-1012 Joe Hendrick, Airport Manager, TVF Airport Authority, (218) 684-1013 Gilbert Industrial Park Mike Moore, Jobs Inc., (218) 779-7858 Maryel Anderson, Anderson Realty, (218) 681-4087 Mark Borseth, Community Services Director, City of Thief River Falls, (218) 684-1012 New Sanford Medical Site Rob Lovejoy, Chief Operating Officer, Sanford Health, (218) 681-4240 Downtown Redevelopment and Rehab John Shoffner, Director, Office of Business Development, DEED, (651) 259-7445 Mark Borseth, Community Services Director, City of Thief River Falls, (218) 684-1012 Arlen Kangas, Chief Economist, Midwest Minnesota Community Development Corporation, akangas@mmcdc.com
  • 13. Pg. 11 Community Data Community Data Sources A variety of resources were utilized to obtain information for this section. Data sources included:7  U.S. Census Bureau.  Estimates and projections from the State Demographer.  Records and data from the City of Thief River Falls.  Records and data maintained by Pennington County.  Data provided by HousingLink.  Interviews with elected officials and staff from the City of Thief River Falls.  Interviews with community leaders.  Interviews with people familiar with the area’s economic conditions including employers, property managers, and developers.  Area housing agencies.  Rental property owner surveys. Market Area Overview In addition to City of Thief River Falls, this section also examines demographic information for a market area that surrounds the City. Referred to in this Study as the “Market Area,” it includes 14 Cities and 49 Townships in Pennington, Marshall, Red Lake and Kittson Counties.7
  • 14. Pg. 12 Population Data and Trends Population Data and Trends Table 1 Population Trends - 1980 to 2010 1980 Population 1990 Population 2000 Population % Change 1990-2000 2010 Population % Change 2000-2010 Thief River Falls 9,105 8,010 8,410 5.0% 8,573 1.9% Market Area 27,651 23,921 23,679 -1.0% 23,627 -0.2% Pennington Co. 15,258 13,306 13,584 2.1% 13,930 2.5% Source: U.S. Census.
  • 15. Pg. 13 Population by Age Trends: 2000 to 2010 Population by Age Trends: 2000 to 2010 Table 2 Population by Age - 2000 to 2010 City of Thief River Falls Market Area Age 2000 2010 Change 2000 2010 Change 0-19 2,234 2,190 -44 / -2.0% 6,635 6,249 -386 / -5.8% 20-24 637 642 5 / 0.8% 1,342 1,214 -128 / -9.5% 25-34 1,046 1,210 164 / 15.7% 2,598 2,817 219 / 8.4% 35-44 1,152 926 -226 / -19.6% 3,469 2,801 -668 / -19.3% 45-54 1,041 1,122 81 / 7.8% 3,250 3,500 250 / 7.7% 55-64 716 967 251 / 35.1% 2,261 3,028 767 / 33.9% 65-74 643 654 11 / 1.7% 1,846 1,930 84 / 4.6% 75-84 607 512 -95 / -15.7% 1,571 1,362 -209 / -13.3% 85+ 334 350 16 / 4.8% 707 726 19 / 2.7% Total 8,410 8,573 163 / 1.9% 23,679 23,627 -52 / -0.2% *Note the significant reduction in age groups 0-24 and 35-44 and a significant increase in age groups 55- 64 during this 10 year period. A key to future economic health in the community will be to retain the 0-24 and 35-44 groups in order to establish a sustainable consumer base.
  • 16. Pg. 14 Population Projections Population Projections Table 3 Population Projections Through 2015 2010 Population 2015 Projection from 10-year trend 2015 Projection from 20-year trend 2015 Projection State Demographer Thief River Falls 8,573 8,656 8,724 8,969 Market Area 23,627 23,601 23,554 24,171 Pennington Co. 13,930 14,107 14,093 14,420 Source: U.S. Census; Community Partners Research, Inc.; MN State Demographer.
  • 17. Pg. 15 Household Data and Trends Household Data and Trends Table 4 Household Trends - 1980 to 2010 1980 Households 1990 Households 2000 Households % Change 1990-2000 2010 Households % Change 2000-2010 Thief River Falls 3,498 3,366 3,619 7.5% 3,802 5.1% Market Area 9,630 9,278 9,647 4.0% 9,946 3.1% Pennington Co. 5,437 5,173 5,525 6.8% 5,836 5.6% Source: U.S. Census. According to the 2010 Census, Thief River Falls added 183 households between 2000 and 2010. This represented household growth of 5.1%.
  • 18. Pg. 16 Household by Age Trends: 2000 to 2010 Household by Age Trends: 2000 to 2010 Table 5 Households by Age - 2000 to 2010 City of Thief River Falls Market Area Age 2000 2010 Change 2000 2010 Change 15-24 338 328 -10 / -3.0% 608 504 -104 / 17.1% 25-34 596 671 75 / 12.6% 1,366 1,460 94 / 6.9% 35-44 643 559 -84 / -13.1% 1,882 1,602 -280 / -14.9% 45-54 603 674 71 / 11.8% 1,816 1,959 143 / 7.9% 55-64 434 573 139 / 32.0% 1,342 1,750 408 / 30.4% 65-74 423 434 11 / 2.6% 1,163 1,237 74 / 6.4% 75-84 417 359 -58 / -13.9% 1,098 971 -127 / 11.6% 85+ 165 204 39 / 23.6% 372 463 91 / 24.5% Total 3,619 3,802 183 / 5.1% 9,647 9,946 299 / 3.1% *Note the significant reduction in age groups 15-24 and 35-44 and a significant increase in age groups 55-64 during this 10 year period. A key to future economic health in the community will be to retain the 15-24 and 35-44 groups in order to establish a sustainable consumer base.
  • 19. Pg. 17 Average Household Size Average Household Size Table 6 Average Number of Persons Per Household - 1980 to 2010 1980 Census 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census Thief River Falls 2.50 2.28 2.21 2.18 Market Area 2.81 2.51 2.37 2.33 Pennington County 2.74 2.50 2.38 2.33 Source: U.S. Census.
  • 20. Pg. 18 Household Projections Household Projections Trend-based Projections Table 7 Trend-Based Household Projections Through 2015 2010 Census 2015 Projection (from 10-year trend) 2015 Projection (from 20-year trend) Thief River Falls 3,802 3,900 3,925 Market Area 9,946 10,100 10,125 Pennington County 5,836 6,000 6,025 Source: U.S. Census; Community Partners Research, Inc. Over the past twenty years, the City has had a relatively consistent rate of household growth. As a result, the projected range of growth is well-defined, regardless of the time period used in the calculation. On an average basis, this would equate to 20 to 25 additional households per year.7
  • 21. Pg. 19 Alternative Projection Based on Job Growth Alternative Projection Based on Job Growth Table 8 Market Area Household Growth - Potential Ranges Low-end Growth Average Annual Range High-end Growth Average Annual Range Market Area 31 to 36 Households 72 to 90 Households Source: Community Partners Research, Inc. Although the trend-based calculations presented earlier can be supported by patterns over the past 30 years, an argument can also be made that near-term growth will occur at a significantly faster rate. This change in the rate of growth would be driven by job creation, namely the consistent growth of Digi-Key Corporation. This has the potential to alter the traditional pattern, and result in an above-average in-migration of people and households. In summary, the projection based on job growth potential yields a forecast that the entire Market Area could add between 72 and 90 households per year, a level of growth that is considerably higher than past trends would suggest.7
  • 22. Pg. 20 Households by Type Households by Type Table 11 Market Area Household Composition From 2000 to 2010 2000 Census 2010 Census Change Family Households Married Couple with own children 2,226 1,846 -380 Single Parent with own children 783 919 +136 Married Couple w/o own children 2,915 3,113 +198 Family Householder no spouse w/o own children 359 444 +85 Total Families 6,283 6,322 +39 Non-Family Households Single Person 2,903 3,070 +167 Two or more persons 461 554 +93 Total Non-Families 3,364 3,624 +260 Source: U.S. Census.
  • 23. Pg. 21 2010 Income Data 2010 Income Data Table 15 Median Household Income: 2000 to 2010 2000 Median 2010 Median % Change Thief River Falls $30,759 $36,218 17.7% Pennington County $34,216 $44,926 31.3% Minnesota $47,111 $57,243 21.5% Source: U.S. Census; 2010 ACS 5-year survey. Table 16 Median Family Income: 2000 to 2010 2000 Median 2010 Median % Change Thief River Falls $40,908 $52,292 27.8% Pennington County $43,936 $56,820 29.3% Minnesota $56,874 $71,307 25.4% Source: U.S. Census; 2010 ACS 5-year survey. Household income represents all independent households, including people living alone and unrelated individuals in a housing unit. Families are two or more related individuals living in a household. No median income information was available for the aggregated jurisdictions that form the Market Area.7
  • 24. Pg. 22 Household Income Distribution 2010 Household Income Distribution 2010 Table 17 Market Area Household Income Distribution - 2000 to 2010 Household Income Number of Households 2000 Number of Households in 2010 Change 2000 to 2010 $0 - $14,999 1,932 1,338 -594 $15,000 - $24,999 1,734 1,224 -510 $25,000 - $34,999 1,348 1,325 -23 $35,000 - $49,999 1,802 1,460 -342 $50,000 - $74,999 1,888 2,247 +359 $75,000 - $99,999 575 1,357 +782 $100,000+ 343 939 +596 Total 9,622 9,890 +268 Source: 2000 Census; 2010 American Community Survey 5-year sample.
  • 25. Pg. 23 Major Area Employers Major Area Employers Most of the job opportunities in the Market Area are located in Thief River Falls. Major employers with 100 or more employees include:  Digi-Key Corporation  Arctic Cat, Inc.  Sanford Health  Seven Clans Casino Hotel and Waterpark  School District #564  Pennington County  Northern Pride, Inc.  Altru Clinic  Northland Community and Technical College  City of Thief River Falls  CP Rail  Dean Foods/Land O’Lakes Source: Community Profiles, Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development.
  • 26. Pg. 24 Pennington County Labor Force Data Pennington County Labor Force Data Table 26 Pennington County Labor Force Data: 2000 - 2011 Year Labor Force Employed Unemployed Unemployment Rate - County Unemployment Rate - MN Unemployment Rate - US 2000 7,672 7,219 453 5.9% 3.1% 4.0% 2001 7,931 7,523 408 5.1% 3.8% 4.7% 2002 7,961 7,491 470 5.9% 4.5% 5.8% 2003 8,043 7,554 489 6.1% 4.9% 6.0% 2004 8,146 7,620 526 6.5% 4.6% 5.6% 2005 8,197 7,733 464 5.7% 4.2% 5.1% 2006 8,375 7,906 469 5.6% 4.1% 4.6% 2007 8,565 7,966 599 7.0% 4.6% 4.6% 2008 8,750 8,135 615 7.0% 5.4% 5.8% 2009 9,008 8,181 827 9.2% 8.1% 9.3% 2010 9,233 8,474 759 8.2% 7.3% 9.6% 2011 9,463 8,801 662 7.0% 6.5% 8.9% Source: MN Department of Employment and Economic Development. There has been significant growth in the size of the County’s available labor force over the past decade. When comparing 2011 to 2000, the labor force increased by 1,791 people, or more than 23%.
  • 27. Pg. 25 Employment and Wages by Industry Employment and Wages by Industry Table 28 Thief River Falls Average Annual Wages by Industry - 2010 Industry Employment Average Annual Wage Total All Industry 7,645 $37,596 Construction 130 $49,036 Manufacturing 1,031 $41,340 Trade, Transportation, Utilities 3,602 $39,780 Financial Activities 181 $39,000 Professional and Business Services 115 $32,240 Education and Health Services 517 $41,184 Leisure and Hospitality 358 $10,140 Other Services 194 $15,288 Public Administration 272 $46,696 Source: MN Department of Employment and Economic Development. The single largest industry sector was Trade, Transportation and Utilities, with more than 3,600 employees in 2010. Presumably, most of the workers at Digi-Key, the region’s largest employer, were classified within this sector. The second largest industry, Manufacturing, had more than 1,000 workers. It is assumed that many Arctic Cat employees would be classified under Manufacturing.
  • 28. Pg. 26 Average Employment & Wages for Market Area Average Employment & Wages for Market Area Table 29 Average Employment and Wages for all Industry - 2010 Industry Employment Average Annual Wage Thief River Falls 7,645 $37,596 Warren 872 $34,476 Red Lake Falls 666 $26,988 Grygla 138 $32,500 Middle River 126 $23,244 Newfolden 99 $28,132 Oklee 93 $31,304 St. Hilaire 74 $43,368 Plummer 36 $21,580 Source: MN Department of Employment and Economic Development. Average annual wages vary widely between the Market Area communities.7
  • 29. Pg. 27 Commuting Patterns of Area Workers Commuting Patterns of Area Workers Table 30 Commuting Times for Thief River Falls Area Residents - 2010 Travel Time City of Residence Less than 10 minutes 10 to 19 minutes 20 to 39 minutes 40 minutes or more Total Thief River Falls 2,219 / 51.1% 1,489 / 34.3% 395 / 9.1% 243 / 5.6% 4,225 Warren 450 / 56.3% 108 / 13.5% 114 / 14.3% 127 / 15.9% 799 Red Lake Falls 238 / 34.8% 58 / 8.5% 294 / 43.0% 93 / 13.6% 683 Grygla 64 / 54.2% 0 / 0% 14 / 11.9% 40 / 33.9% 118 Middle River 31 / 21.7% 5 / 3.5% 74 / 51.7% 33 / 23.1% 143 Newfolden 25 / 21.4% 19 / 16.2% 58 / 49.6% 15 / 12.8% 117 Oklee 61 / 27.7% 34 / 15.5% 72 / 32.7% 53 / 24.1% 220 St. Hilaire 13 / 11.3% 76 / 66.1% 14 / 12.2% 12 / 10.4% 115 Plummer 39 / 28.5% 30 / 21.9% 49 / 35.8% 19 / 13.9% 137 Source: 2010 American Community Survey 5-year sample.
  • 30. Pg. 28 References References 1. “40 Years of Superior Service.” Digi-Key Corporation. http://www.digikey.com/us/en/info/Company-Profile.html 2. “Fiscal 2013 Annual Report.” Arctic Cat, Inc. June 2013. 3. “Sanford Thief River Falls Medical Clinic.” Sanford Health. http://www.sanfordhealth.org/Construction/ThiefRiverFallsMedicalCenter 4. “The Economic Impact of Unmanned Aircraft Systems Integration in the United States.” Association for Unmanned Vehicle Systems International (AUVSI). March 2013. 5. “Airport Authority Formed.” Thief River Falls Regional Airport. http://www.trfairport.com/ July 2013 6. “Economy in Thief River Falls, Minnesota.” Sperling’s Best Places. http://www.bestplaces.net/economy/city/minnesota/thief_river_falls June 2012. 7. “City of Thief River Falls Housing Study Update.” Community Partners Research, Inc. February 2012.
  • 31. Pg. 29 Contact Information Contact Information Edwin Dale Hahn 504 Arnold Ave. South Thief River Falls, MN 56701 Tel (218) 686-3970 edwin.dale.hahn@gmail.com Disclaimer: This document is a proof and is by no means comprehensive. All forward looking statements are projections and not matter of fact. The views and opinions expressed are the author’s and are not representative of Jobs, Inc., the City of Thief River Falls, or Pennington County, MN.