Transnational higher education is emerging as a significant growth industry, influenced by increasing global demand for education, particularly in emerging economies. The UK is well positioned to expand its role in this market, but the actual scale and financial impact of transnational education remains unclear due to inconsistent data and various challenges in implementation. Despite a generally positive outlook regarding expansion, many UK universities express caution due to risks associated with quality control, sustainability, and internal resistance.

1. Transnational higher education: “one
of the great growth industries of the
future”?
3rd QS-MAPLE Annual Conference
8 May 2013
Professor Nigel Healey
Pro-Vice-Chancellor (International)
Nottingham Trent University

2. Introduction
• ―Demand for higher education is growing worldwide... Increasingly,
emerging economies want to educate their students at home, and
the UK - a global pioneer in developing educational facilities - is well
placed to help… This is one of Britain’s great growth industries of
the future‖ (UK Minister for Universities and Science , 2012)
• So:
– What is transnational education?
– How big is the global market?
– Will it really be a ―great growth industry”?
17 May 2013 2

3. What is transnational education?
• ―Any teaching or learning activity in which the students
are in a different country to that in which the
institutional providing the education is based‖ (Global
Alliance for Transnational Education, 1997)
• ―All types of higher education study programmes, sets
of study courses, or educational services (including
those of distance education) in which the learners are
located in a country different from the one where the
awarding institution is based‖ (Council of Europe,
2002)
17 May 2013 3

4. General Agreement on Trade in Services
(GATS) and transnational education
17 May 2013 4
GATS terminology Transnational education variant
Mode 1 — Cross border
supply
Programme mobility: distance or
on-line education
Mode 2 — Consumption
abroad
Student mobility: export education
Mode 3 — Commercial
presence
Institutional mobility:
franchise/validated partner and
International Branch Campuses
Mode 4 — Presence of
natural persons
Staff mobility: fly-in/fly-out
programmes

5. 17 May 2013 5

6. How big is the global market for
transnational education?
• No clear data on scale of the global market
• Many countries do not record the overseas activities of their
universities
• Some countries record enrolments of foreign franchisees and
campuses…
• …but they cannot capture distance-learning
• The UK and Australia do require their universities to report
overseas enrolments
• Use UK data to provide insight into the market
17 May 2013 6

7. Relative growth of export and transnational
education in the UK
17 May 2013 7
Source: HESA

8. Surge in students studying for UK degrees abroad
The Guardian, 15 February 2013
17 May 2013 8
•
―International offshoots of
UK universities, partnerships
with foreign institutions and
online study mean there are
now more students on UK
university courses abroad
than there are international
and EU students coming to
the UK to study‖
―Look, there‘s one of those old-fashioned
international students getting on a plane!‖

9. What kinds of transnational education?
17 May 2013 9
Source: HESA/SIEM
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11
Overseas campus 7,120 9,885 11,410 12,305
Distance, flexible and
distributed learning 100,345 112,345 114,985 113,065
Other students registered at
HEI 59,895 68,595 74,360 86,630
Overseas partner
organisation 29,240 197,185 207,790 291,575
Other students studying
overseas for HEI's award 70 35 50 125
Total 196,670 388,045 408,595 503,700

10. But one kind is growing especially fast…
17 May 2013 10
Source: HESA/SIEM
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11
Overseas campus 7,120 9,885 11,410 12,305
Distance, flexible and
distributed learning 100,345 112,345 114,985 113,065
Other students registered at
HEI 59,895 68,595 74,360 86,630
Overseas partner
organisation 29,240 197,185 207,790 291,575
Other students studying
overseas for HEI's award 70 35 50 125
Total 196,670 388,045 408,595 503,700

11. Caveat 1: the ―Oxford Brookes effect‖
17 May 2013 11
2007/08 2008/09* 2009/10 2010/11
Oxford Brookes
University
870 163,295 162,045 239,945
Source: HESA
• Students enrolling part-time or online on ACCA level 3 courses are
automatically enrolled as Oxford Brookes students for 10 years
• Once they have passed ACCA, they can write and submit a Research
and Analysis Project
• If they pass, they are awarded BSc (Hons) in Applied Accounting
• 16,554 students have graduated since 2000
* Began reporting ACCA students as registered at Oxford Brookes

12. Caveat 2: headcount not full-time equivalent
• Almost all (85%) of international students in the UK are full-
time, paying fees of £10,000+
• Most (>70%) transnational education students are part-time,
eg:
– 48% are Oxford Brookes/ACCA
– 22% are distance-learning
• Many course can be very part-time, allowing ‗study holidays‘
and long completion times
• Tuition fees for transnational courses are much lower (that is
the point!)
• Revenue from transnational education is much lower than
from export education
17 May 2013 12
Source: HESA

13. ―Enrolments x tuition fees = revenue‖.
Discuss.
• The 239,945 ACCA students pay Oxford Brookes £135 to
submit their projects, about 1% of the annual tuition paid by
international students on campus
• Oxford Brookes has 3,200 international students on campus
• The revenue is equivalent to 260,000 ACCA students
submitting each year
17 May 2013 13

14. Outlook for transnational education
17 May 2013 14
• S(domestic) =ƒ(domestic
HE capacity)
• D(domestic): ƒ(population
and GDP growth)

15. All other things equal
• Demand for transnational education will increase:
– If population (especially 18-22 years) grows
– Per capita income grows
• Demand for transnational education will decrease:
– If capacity/quality of domestic higher education increases
• In many developing countries, population and per capita
income are growing…
• …but governments are investing in major expansion of
domestic higher education
17 May 2013 15

16. The Higher Education Act, No. 101 of 1997
• Promoting quality and developing capacity
• Past and present projects:
– Capacity Development and Training
– Conversations on Quality and the Quality Assurance Fora
– Good Practice Guides
– Special Quality Promotion Projects
– Student Participation in Quality Assurance (SPQA)
17 May 2013 16

17. Balance will change by country and over
time
17 May 2013 17
Population
growth,
GDP
growth
Domestic
HE
capacity,
regulatory
regime
Hi
Lo
TNEmarket

18. What about the supply-side?
17 May 2013 18
Interviewees Institutional Affiliation
A Pro-Vice-Chancellor Russell Group university 1
B International Director Russell Group university 1
C Dean 94 Group university 1
D International Manager 94 Group university 2
E Pro-Vice-Chancellor University Alliance university 1
F International Director University Alliance university 2
G Associate Dean (Int.) University Alliance university 3
H Dean Million+ university
I Director British Council
J Senior Manager UK HE International Unit
K Senior Manager Northern Consortium UK

19. Attitudes to expansion of transnational
education: positive themes
1. Broaden the market for UK higher education
– ‘never will be more than a tiny minority [of students] who can go
overseas… There is going to be an increasing need for TNE because of the
growing numbers going into higher education’.
– ‘TNE is also becoming a core recruitment tool…some big universities have
the majority of their international students coming from TNE programmes’
2. Build a global brand for UK universities
– ‘any good research university needs to be globally connected… [TNE] hits
the soft power agenda’
3. UK government is driving TNE across all ministries
– ‗[government] see TNE as a key part of export education, which doesn’t
need international students coming here’
– ‘the British Council, the International Unit of UUK, UKTI, the new BIS unit,
Education UK, they are all trying to get us to do TNE’
17 May 2013 19

20. Attitudes to expansion of transnational
education: negative themes
1. Risk aversion
– ‘There have been lots of issues and there has been a reduction in these
projects [franchising and validation]. They are very one sided’
– ‘too many failed IBCs, like UNSW Asia and George Mason University’
2. Some TNE activities are not scalable
– ‘most [academics] do not understand or care…they want to concentrate on
their research’.
– ‘people see [TNE] as a pain in the arse’
– ‘the QAA is so overstretched, how can we ensure that quality is
maintained?’
3. Some forms of TNE are not sustainable
– ‗[This] is not a sustainable model, you’re just plugging the gap until their
own sector fills it‘
17 May 2013 20

21. Attitudes to expansion of transnational
education: negative themes (cont‘d)
4. No pot of gold
– ‘if it’s about making money, there are more interesting
things to do — you’ll never make money in the
medium term’
– ‘always a mismatch between promise and delivery…
Projections in terms of numbers never materialise’
– ‘the costs of tutors, academic overheads, etc are not
taken into account. If you included everything, you
probably don't make money’
5. Internal resistance
– ‘it is not our core business, we shouldn't be doing
something that takes up resources that could be used
elsewhere’
17 May 2013 21
Oxford undergraduates
head for class

22. Conclusions
• Transnational education wifely being seen as a growth industry
• Data on scale of global market is spotty
• UK data suggests that the market is large and growing, but data
currently overstate the financial significance of the market
• Balance of population/GDP growth vs investment in domestic higher
education will mean uneven and changing patterns of demand
• For universities in UK study, most are cautious about expansion of
transnational education, with a number of inhibiting factors at work
• Final thought: beware disruptive technologies likes MOOCs (fad or
game-changer?)
17 May 2013 22