I present a case that the astronomy community is missing a part of the puzzle for the next era of automated big-survey astronomy: we currently have very little published work on target prioritization and optimized observation scheduling. I discuss the sociological issues surrounding the sort of open collaboration needed to make optimal use of globally distributed observatories, and show some preliminary work on generally-applicable classification methods.

1. Training your astronomy
robots to work as a team
Tim Staley, Amr Hussein & the
4 Pi Sky group
(R. Fender, A. Stewart, G. Pietka, T.
Munoz-Darias)
Radio Transients with SKA Pathfinders
South Africa, July 2013
WWW: 4pisky.org , timstaley.co.uk

2. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
Outline
The “second grade soccer” problem
A quick plug
But...
The centralized approach
Classifiers to schedulers

3. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
Outline
The “second grade soccer” problem
A quick plug
But...
The centralized approach
Classifiers to schedulers

4. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
The astronomer’s telegram

5. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
The astronomer’s telegram

6. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
The astronomer’s telegram
Most of transient astronomy still
operates using telegraph (well, email)
and telephone.

7. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
The astronomer’s telegram
Most of transient astronomy still
operates using telegraph (well, email)
and telephone.
High latency results in significant
duplication of effort.

8. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
The astronomer’s telegram
Most of transient astronomy still
operates using telegraph (well, email)
and telephone.
High latency results in significant
duplication of effort.
Requires significant astronomer /
observation time ratio.

9. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
The GRB microcosm
GRB community has overcome
latency issues using GCN.
Works well, but narrow in scope.
Automated system is one way
(NASA −→ World); follow-up reverts to
manual.

10. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
How does VOEvent help?
Fast.
Flexible.
Allows for automated creation,
collation, filtering . . .

11. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
Outline
The “second grade soccer” problem
A quick plug
But...
The centralized approach
Classifiers to schedulers

12. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
VOEvent-Parse
A super-lightweight python wrapper /
library built on lxml.
https://github.com/timstaley/
voevent-parse
pip install voevent-parse

13. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
VOEvent-Parse
import voeparse
v = voeparse.load(’path/to/voevent_packet.xml’)
#Prints ivo://nasa.gsfc.tan/gcn
print "AuthorIVORN:", v.Who.AuthorIVORN
#Alters the XML value.
v.Who.AuthorIVORN = ’ivo://i.heart.python/lxml’

14. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
VOEvent-Parse
http:
//voevent-parse.readthedocs.org/

15. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
Other VOEvent tools
See also:
http://comet.transientskp.org/ —
Connect to the VOEvent backbone!
https:
//github.com/timstaley/pysovo —
Email people! Do stuff!
Generate a VOEvent, (and a
templated GCN / Atel!) from your web
browser— Coming soon? (Would
anyone use it?)

16. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
Outline
The “second grade soccer” problem
A quick plug
But...
The centralized approach
Classifiers to schedulers

17. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
Loud noises!
Faster communication by itself only
gets you so far (HFT disasters?).

18. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
How can we facilitate
collaboration?
At a minimum: Need to be open about
what we are doing. Better yet: Share /
trade observations.

19. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
How can we facilitate
collaboration?
At a minimum: Need to be open about
what we are doing. Better yet: Share /
trade observations.
Minor hurdle: Astronomy community
has no universal standard for
’observation requests.’

20. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
How can we facilitate
collaboration?
At a minimum: Need to be open about
what we are doing. Better yet: Share /
trade observations.
Minor hurdle: Astronomy community
has no universal standard for
’observation requests.’
Major hurdle: Political will / rewards
system for observers releasing open
data. (Or; only share with your
friends? Trust vs. potential benefits.)

21. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
Outline
The “second grade soccer” problem
A quick plug
But...
The centralized approach
Classifiers to schedulers

22. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
Negotiation is hard
Negotiation and decentralization adds
complexity.
Trade off: Freedom and robustness vs.
efficiency, single set of priorities at
any one time.
e.g. GCN community vs. PTF, LCOGT.

23. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
An optimal response system
Something like this, perhaps?

24. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
Agent based systems
These have been seen before...
A. Allan,
E. Saunders et
al.
c.f. 2003–2007
(RIP Estar)

25. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
Agent based systems
These have been seen before...
A. Allan,
E. Saunders et
al.
c.f. 2003–2007
(RIP Estar)
Large
collaboration
Scheduling: E.
Saunders
(small world)
Currently
being
deployed

26. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
One block is missing

27. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
Outline
The “second grade soccer” problem
A quick plug
But...
The centralized approach
Classifiers to schedulers

28. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
What are we optimizing for?
Science value

29. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
What are we optimizing for?
Science value
{ Subject to cost constraints }

30. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
What are we optimizing for?
Science value
{ Subject to cost constraints }
{ And telescope availability }

31. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
What are we optimizing for?
Science value
{ Subject to cost constraints }
{ And telescope availability }
{ And . . . }

32. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
What are we optimizing for?
Science value
{ Subject to cost constraints }
{ And telescope availability }
{ And . . . }
How do we assign a science value — when
we don’t know what it is yet?

33. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
Guessing at science value
Suppose we have a tentative set of
classification probabilities.
Choose follow-up observations with
best chance of refining probabilities.
Assign expected science values to
transients based on those potential
outcomes.
Hence, assign science value to
planned observations, feed to
scheduler for optimization.

34. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
Representing information
gain
Assign ‘confusion matrices’ to a given
observation.
. . . and the rest is ‘just’ computer science
(hopefully).
Need to determine e.g. how well an
optical observation separates classes.

35. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
Start with the training data
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Optical mag
10-2
10-1
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
RadiofluxmJy
Quasar (Optical)(8629)
Quasar (Radio)(976)
Stellar(707)
Quasar (Type II)(531)
GRB(14)
Pulsar(10)
SN(6)
X-ray binary(4)
Magnetar(3)
CV(3)
M101(1)
Bell#1(1)
RRAT(1)

36. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
10−2
10−1
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0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45
PDF
10−2
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Radioflux[mJy]
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Optical magnitude
0.00
0.02
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PDF
Stellar
Stellar

37. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
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0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
PDF
10−2
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Radioflux[mJy]
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34
Optical magnitude
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PDF
GRB
GRB

38. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
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Radioflux[mJy]
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Optical magnitude
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PDF
Quasar (Radio)
Quasar (Radio)

39. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
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0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45
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Radioflux[mJy]
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34
Optical magnitude
0.00
0.05
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0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
PDF
Pulsar
Pulsar

40. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
10−2
10−1
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105
0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
PDF
10−2
10−1
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102
103
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Radioflux[mJy]
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34
Optical magnitude
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
0.45
PDF
Stellar
GRB
Quasar (Radio)
Pulsar
Combined Stellar, GRB, Quasar (Radio), Pulsar

41. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
0.00 0.01 0.0210-1
100
101
102
103
104 Conditionals
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.010-1
100
101
102
103
104 Relative
Stellar
Pulsar
Quasar (Radio)
GRB
Radio probabilities: flux err = 0.5mJy

42. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 350.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12 Conditionals
Stellar
Pulsar
Quasar (Radio)
GRB
0 5 10 15 20 25 300.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Relative
Non-detection Opt probabilities: flux err = 0.5mag

43. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 350.000
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
0.025 Conditionals
Stellar
Pulsar
Quasar (Radio)
GRB
0 5 10 15 20 25 300.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Relative
Non-detection Opt probabilities: flux err = 0.5mag

44. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
This is the end
Open source VOEvent tools are here,
now. Do what you want with them.

45. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
This is the end
Open source VOEvent tools are here,
now. Do what you want with them.
(Automated) Transient astronomy is
clearly nascent.
The rise of the robots will likely be a
slow and progressive one.
Political will and manpower may be
the limiting factors? (cf. eStar)

46. The “second grade soccer” problem A quick plug But... The centralized approach Classifiers to schedulers
This is the end
Open source VOEvent tools are here,
now. Do what you want with them.
(Automated) Transient astronomy is
clearly nascent.
The rise of the robots will likely be a
slow and progressive one.
Political will and manpower may be
the limiting factors? (cf. eStar)
If you have experience in schedulers
I’d like to hear the gritty details.