The National Fisheries Institute held its annual conference in Orlando. We made a picture book of the top ten things we learned while we were there.

1. Global Seafood Market Conference 2020
Top 10 Things We Learned Picturebook
The National Fisheries Institute held its annual conference in Orlando. We made a picture book of the top
ten things we learned while we were there.
Key takeaways include:
1. Global pork is in big trouble
2. Cod is in more places and moving up-market
3. Haddock isn’t just for New England anymore
4. US scallop landings will decline and sizes will get smaller
5. Most restaurant food is consumed at home
6. Frozen seafood is holding its own, and in some cases, making a resurgence
7. The midatlantic eats more seafood than any other region
8. Plant-based burgers are still a niche, despite the media attention
9. The Southeast eats a lot more shrimp than any other region
10. Twenty different restaurant chains launched lobster rolls last year
… and as a bonus #11, did you know iguanas fall from trees when temperatures drop?
Any questions, drop me a line.
O: 207-200-2555 | M: 408-857-3003 | peterh@bristolseafood.com

2. Global pork is in big trouble
• The USDA projects Chinese pork production will fall by a third due to African Swine Fever
• China is the largest pork producer and consumer in the world
• Who will “go without”, and what proteins will be used as a replacement?
Source: National Fisheries Institute (NFI), Bureau of Labor Statistics, Datassentials, NPD Group, USDA, Bristol Seafood Analysis

3. Cod is in more places and moving up-market
• Menu penetration is up significantly from its lows in 2013
• Share of menu gets higher as the price-point of the establishment increases
• Cod sees its largest menu share in fine dining
Source: National Fisheries Institute (NFI), Bureau of Labor Statistics, Datassentials, NPD Group, USDA, Bristol Seafood Analysis

4. Haddock isn’t just for New England anymore
• The Northeast remains the largest market for haddock
• That said, the Midwest and South still menu the item, and we’re seeing it West as well
• Midwest “love” for haddock is already at 70% of the level it is in the Northeast
Source: National Fisheries Institute (NFI), Bureau of Labor Statistics, Datassentials, NPD Group, USDA, Bristol Seafood Analysis

5. US scallop landings will decline and sizes will get smaller
Past – more scallops in more places
• Landings in the US are up dramatically over the last two decades (landings up 3x since ’95)
• The world developed a taste for US sea scallops (exports up 5x since ’95)
• Imports are a meaningful part of scallop supply in the US (over a billion pounds imported
since 1998, exceeding the amount that is landed in the US)
Present – reduction in US landings
• The New England Fisheries Management Council expects a significant reduction in the
harvest of US scallops, falling from 62.5 million in 2019, to 52 million in 2020
Future – shift in scallop sizes will alter pricing
• US scallops will see upward pricing pressure, with it perhaps most pronounced on larger-
count sizes such as U10 and 10-20.
• Small-count US scallops could present a buying opportunity as supply in 50ct and smaller
scallops comes online and demand, at present, is muted.
• The degree of the price decline will be dictated by more than just US supply
o Exports (driven by foreign demand and relative strength of the USD)
o Imports (driven by domestic demand and relative strength of the USD)
o Consumer demand in the US
Source: National Fisheries Institute (NFI), Bureau of Labor Statistics, Datassentials, NPD Group, USDA, Bristol Seafood Analysis

6. Most restaurant food is consumed at home
At Home, 46
Inside Restaurant,
36
In Car, 10
At Work, 3
Percentage of Restaurant Dinner Occassions
Source: National Fisheries Institute (NFI), Bureau of Labor Statistics, Datassentials, NPD Group, USDA, Bristol Seafood Analysis

7. Frozen seafood is holding its own, and sometimes growing
• Convenient formats are the leading foods we purchase
• Over 15% of eating occasions include food that the consumer purchased frozen
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Shelf stable Frozen RTE foodservice Fresh protein Fresh produce Refrigerated ex-
meat/seafood
Deli
Form at Purchase - Share of Eating Occassions
Source: National Fisheries Institute (NFI), Bureau of Labor Statistics, Datassentials, NPD Group, USDA, Bristol Seafood Analysis

8. The Midatlantic eats more seafood than any other region
• The USDA projects Chinese pork production will fall by a third due to African Swine Fever
• China is the largest pork producer and consumer in the world
• Who will “go without”, and what proteins will be used as a replacement?
Source: National Fisheries Institute (NFI), Bureau of Labor Statistics, Datassentials, NPD Group, USDA, Bristol Seafood Analysis

9. Plant-based burgers are still a niche, despite media attention
• Annual consumption of seafood in the US is approximately 16lbs per person
• In contrast, per capital consumption of plant-based burgers in foodservice are 0.06lbs, or
approximately one ounce.
• That said, consumption did double over three years, but on a small base
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
May '16 May '19
Per Capita Plant-Based Burger Consumption in
Foodservice
Per Capita Plant-Based Burger Consumption in Foodservice
Source: National Fisheries Institute (NFI), Bureau of Labor Statistics, Datassentials, NPD Group, USDA, Bristol Seafood Analysis

10. The Southeast eats a lot more shrimp than any other region
• The South Atlantic ate 35%+ of the shrimp consumed by the whole USA
Source: National Fisheries Institute (NFI), Bureau of Labor Statistics, Datassentials, NPD Group, USDA, Bristol Seafood Analysis

11. Twenty restaurant chains launched lobster rolls last year
• There is a wide range of price points, from McCormick & Schmick’s to Quizno’s
Source: National Fisheries Institute (NFI), Bureau of Labor Statistics, Datassentials, NPD Group, USDA, Bristol Seafood Analysis

12. Iguanas fall from trees when temperatures drop
• The Global Seafood Market Conference took place in Orlando
• During our time there, we received a weather alert that cold temperatures could cause
iguanas to fall from trees
• We do not expect this to result in a material change to per capita consumption of iguana,
though if it were to occur in China, could lessen the impact of ASF
Source: National Fisheries Institute (NFI), Bureau of Labor Statistics, Datassentials, NPD Group, USDA, Bristol Seafood Analysis… PS, this is a joke.