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Influential Parameters on
Ultrafine Particles in Proximity to
Open Air Restaurant Patios
Alex Lee
Supervisor: Dr. Marianne Hatzopoulou
Department of Civil Engineering and Applied Mechanics
Fall 2015
MAIN OBJECTIVES
 Explore influential factors contributing to ultrafine particle (UFP) variability in the
presence of open air restaurant patios
 Establishing a linear mixed model to make determinations on greatest effects
 Higher than average concentrations at measured sites
 Meteorological and traffic effects: most important predictors
MAIN HYPOTHESES
MOTIVATION
TABLE OF CONTENTS
I. CONTEXT
I. Near-Road Air Pollution & Health
II. Ultrafine Particles
III. Measurement Methodology
IV. Statistical Methodology
II. DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN
I. Site Selection
II. Equipment
III. Protocol
III. DATA PROCESSING
I. UFP & Traffic Data
II. Meteorological Data
III. Land Use Data
IV. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
V. RESULTS
I. Descriptive Statistics
II. Bivariate Analyses
III. Modelling Results
IV. Summary
VI. DISCUSSION
VII. CONCLUSION
CONTEXT: Near-Road Air Pollution &
Health in Urban Areas
 In urban areas, motor vehicle exhaust a main
contributor to air pollution
 Diesel vehicles contribute to [UFP]
disproportionate to their contribution to overall
traffic count
 Land use processes : residential/commercial
heating
 Street geometries
 Health Effects: Increased risk of respiratory and
cardiovascular effects
CONTEXT
I. Air
Pollution &
Health
II. UFP
III. Measuring
IV. LMM
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
CONTEXT: Ultrafine Particles
 A subset of fine particulate matter (equal to or less than 2.5 µm in
aerodynamic diameter)
 Defined as particles equal to or less than 0.1 µm in diameter
 Typically composed of carbon-based material with inorganic ions
 Nucleated UFP particles  COAGULATE or CONDENSE or EVAPORATE
CONTEXT
I. Air
Pollution &
Health
II. UFP
III. Measuring
IV. LMM
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
CONTEXT
I. Air
Pollution &
Health
II. UFP
III. Measuring
IV. LMM
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
CONTEXT: Measurement Methodology
 Condensation Particle Counter
 Measures particles ranging from 0.01 µm
to >1.0 µm
 User friendliness and convenience
 Programmable data logging
CONTEXT
I. Air
Pollution &
Health
II. UFP
III. Measuring
IV. LMM
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
CONTEXT
I. Air
Pollution &
Health
II. UFP
III. Measuring
IV. LMM
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
CONTEXT: Statistical Methodology
 What is a Linear Mixed-Effects
Model?
 An “extension” of a general
linear model
 “Mixed”: contains both FIXED
and RANDOM elements
 Model quality assessed using
Akaike’s Information Criteria
(AIC) reading
 “Smaller-is-better” terms
CONTEXT
I. Air
Pollution &
Health
II. UFP
III. Measuring
IV. LMM
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
CONTEXT: Statistical Methodology
 Why Linear Mixed-Effects Models?
 Study of repeated measures (within-subject correlated data)
 Allows for more accurate interpretations of relationships
CONTEXT
I. Air
Pollution &
Health
II. UFP
III. Measuring
IV. LMM
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN
I. Site Selection
- Identifying areas of interest
- Gathering of postal codes
- Buffer creation to assess land use composition
- Ensure site walkability: checking neighbourhood Walk
Score ratings
CONTEXT
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
I. Site
Selection
II. Equipment
III. Protocol
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
CONTEXT
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
I. Site
Selection
II. Equipment
III. Protocol
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
CONTEXT
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
I. Site
Selection
II. Equipment
III. Protocol
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
SITE #1 (Plateau-Mont-Royal borough)
DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN
CONTEXT
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
I. Site
Selection
II. Equipment
III. Protocol
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN
SITE #2 (Outremont borough)
CONTEXT
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
I. Site
Selection
II. Equipment
III. Protocol
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN
SITE #3 (Ville-Marie [downtown] borough)
CONTEXT
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
I. Site
Selection
II. Equipment
III. Protocol
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN
SITE #4 (Ville-Marie [downtown] borough)
CONTEXT
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
I. Site
Selection
II. Equipment
III. Protocol
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN
SITE #5 (Plateau-Mont-Royal borough)
CONTEXT
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
I. Site
Selection
II. Equipment
III. Protocol
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN
SITE #6 (Ville-Marie [downtown] borough)
CONTEXT
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
I. Site
Selection
II. Equipment
III. Protocol
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN
SITE #7 (Ville-Marie [downtown] borough)
CONTEXT
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
I. Site
Selection
II. Equipment
III. Protocol
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN
SITE #8 (Southwest borough)
DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN
II. Equipment
Condensation
Particle Counter (CPC)
GoPro Video
Camera Recorder
CONTEXT
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
I. Site
Selection
II. Equipment
III. Protocol
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN
III. Protocol
- 8 study sites (4 visits to each site;
each visit unique in type of day and
time of day)
- 2 hours of data collection per visit
Data Collected
- UFP number concentrations
- Traffic counts
- Meteorological Data (from weather
stations)
Equipment Position
- Approximately 1 m above ground
- Near-roadway, in proximity to patio
CONTEXT
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
I. Site
Selection
II. Equipment
III. Protocol
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN
III. Protocol
CAMPAIGN STIPULATIONS
- No site visited twice on the same collection day.
- No site visited twice during the same day of a collection week.
- No measurements conducted on Fridays.
- Discard data in the event of inclement weather.
CAMPAIGN DURATION
20 days (10 weekdays + 10 weekends) spanning 8 weeks
CONTEXT
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
I. Site
Selection
II. Equipment
III. Protocol
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
DATA PROCESSING
UFP DATA & TRAFFIC DATA
Data entries for each visit divided into 15-minute intervals (8 entries/visit)
* 15-minute averages for logged per-minute UFP data
* Manual counts of traffic for matching 15-minute intervals
CONTEXT
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
DATA PROCESSING
I. UFP &
Traffic
II. Meteo
III. Land Use
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
DATA PROCESSING
METEOROLOGICAL DATA
- Meteorological data from 2 fixed monitoring stations: Trudeau International
Airport and MacTavish Automated Weather Station
Temperature
r = 0.959
Relative Humidity
r = 0.901
Wind Speed
r = 0.731
CONTEXT
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
DATA PROCESSING
I. UFP &
Traffic
II. Meteo
III. Land Use
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
DATA PROCESSING
METEOROLOGICAL DATA
FMS Temperature RH Wind Speed
MacTavish -.212 -.134 .119
Dorval (Airport) -.205 -.237 .012
Data Comparison between FMS (Pearson
Correlations with ln(UFP))
Dorval (Airport) meteorological data retained for analysis.
Orthogonality Index = sin (θw – θs)
where
θw represents the angle at which the wind
intersects with the street
θs represents the angle of the street relative to
true north
(in clockwise direction)
CONTEXT
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
DATA PROCESSING
I. UFP &
Traffic
II. Meteo
III. Land Use
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
DATA PROCESSING
LAND USE DATA
- GIS processing:
Land use types
(100m buffers)
Road infrastructure
Vegetation index
Pollution levels
--------------------------
Land use
(entropy) index 
where a value of 1
indicates complete land
use homogeneity
CONTEXT
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
DATA PROCESSING
I. UFP &
Traffic
II. Meteo
III. Land Use
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY
Linear Mixed Model with Random Intercept
Dependent Variable:
Natural logarithm of mean UFP concentrations
Independent Variables:
Variable selection based on univariate analysis
Avoid collinearity between variables
Add/create variables to decrease Akaike’s Information Criteria
(AIC)
CONTEXT
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
RESULTS
DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
Variable Units Mean Std. Dev Min Max
UFP #/cm3 37946.98 15482.48 8944.5 91694.1
lnUFP - 10.46 0.42 9.1 11.4
CONTEXT
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
I. Descriptive
Statistics
II. Bivariate
Analyses
III. Modelling
Results
IV. Summary
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
RESULTS
UFP Concentration by LocationCONTEXT
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
I. Descriptive
Statistics
II. Bivariate
Analyses
III. Modelling
Results
IV. Summary
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
RESULTS
BIVARIATE ANALYSIS
Temperature vs Mean
UFP Concentration
Pearson Correlation:
-0.175, p = 0.005
CONTEXT
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
I. Descriptive
Statistics
II. Bivariate
Analyses
III. Modelling
Results
IV. Summary
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
RESULTS
BIVARIATE ANALYSIS
Relative Humidity vs
Mean UFP Concentration
Pearson Correlation:
-0.212, p = 0.001
CONTEXT
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
I. Descriptive
Statistics
II. Bivariate
Analyses
III. Modelling
Results
IV. Summary
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
RESULTS
BIVARIATE ANALYSIS
Commercial Zoning vs
Mean UFP Concentration
Pearson Correlation:
0.235, p = < 0.0005
CONTEXT
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
I. Descriptive
Statistics
II. Bivariate
Analyses
III. Modelling
Results
IV. Summary
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
RESULTS
BIVARIATE ANALYSIS
Entropy Index vs Mean
UFP Concentration
Pearson Correlation:
0.197, p = 0.002
CONTEXT
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
I. Descriptive
Statistics
II. Bivariate
Analyses
III. Modelling
Results
IV. Summary
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
RESULTS
BIVARIATE ANALYSIS
Weekday vs Mean UFP
Concentration
Pearson Correlation:
-0.199, p = 0.001
Dummy variable:
(1) Indicates a weekday
CONTEXT
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
I. Descriptive
Statistics
II. Bivariate
Analyses
III. Modelling
Results
IV. Summary
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
RESULTS
BIVARIATE ANALYSIS
Evening Hour vs Mean
UFP Concentration
Pearson Correlation:
-.140, p = 0.025
Dummy variable:
(1) Indicates evening
measurements
CONTEXT
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
I. Descriptive
Statistics
II. Bivariate
Analyses
III. Modelling
Results
IV. Summary
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
RESULTS
LINEAR MIXED MODEL FOR LN(UFP)
(AIC = 182.07)
Parameter Units Estimate SE T Sig. 95% CI
Intercept - 11.221 0.231 48.543 <0.0005 10.758 11.683
Weekday = (0) (dummy) 0.209 0.043 4.86 <0.0005 0.124 0.294
Weekday = (1) (dummy) 0 0
EveningHr = (0) (dummy) 0.134 0.046 2.932 0.004 0.044 0.224
EveningHr = (1) (dummy) 0 0
Temperature_Dorval °C -0.037 0.007 -5.370 <0.0005 -0.056 -0.025
RelHum_Dorval % -0.009 0.002 -4.056 <0.0005 -0.014 -0.005
OrthogonalIndex_Dorval - 0.386 0.074 5.202 <0.0005 0.240 0.533
WindSpd_Dorval km/h -0.011 0.005 -2.199 0.059 -0.023 0.001
Entropy - 0.190 0.153 1.237 0.267 -0.196 0.576
Estimates of Covariance Parameters
Parameter Estimate S.E.
Residual 0.102 0.009
Intercept + <0.0005 0.0008
WindSpd_Dorval <0.0005 <0.0005
CONTEXT
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
I. Descriptive
Statistics
II. Bivariate
Analyses
III. Modelling
Results
IV. Summary
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
CONTRIBUTION TO KNOWLEDGE
 Highest levels of UFP measured during daytime periods on the
weekend.
 Meteorological variables hold inverse relationships with UFP
concentrations.
 Orthogonal winds favour increased number concentrations.
 Traffic variables affected UFP negligibly.
 Variables of particular interest, commercial zoning and number of
restaurants, hold positive associations with [UFP].
CONTEXT
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
I. Descriptive
Statistics
II. Bivariate
Analyses
III. Modelling
Results
IV. Summary
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
DISCUSSION
Accounting for above average UFP concentrations…
- Consider effect of smoking and restaurant activity on
pollutant levels (neither were included in the study)
- Urban heat island effect
- Early May start to campaign  measurements conducted in
lower temperatures
CONTEXT
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
DISCUSSION
Explaining counterintuitive traffic results…
- Must consider background concentrations from nearby roads
- Possible effect of traffic captured within temporal predictors
retained in the final model
- Potential counting errors
CONTEXT
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSION
Future Work
- Additional study sites
- On-site meteorological data collection
- Need to assess more ‘patio’-centric variables (location of exhaust fan,
smoking policies)
- Comparison with similar studies conducted in other cities
- Before-and-after study to evaluate the impact of initiatives aimed to
reduce near-road concentrations (i.e. pedestrianization schemes)
CONTEXT
DATA COLLECTION
CAMPAIGN
DATA PROCESSING
STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS :
METHODOLOGY
RESULTS
DISCUSSION
CONCLUSION
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Thesis Powerpoint

  • 1. Influential Parameters on Ultrafine Particles in Proximity to Open Air Restaurant Patios Alex Lee Supervisor: Dr. Marianne Hatzopoulou Department of Civil Engineering and Applied Mechanics Fall 2015
  • 2. MAIN OBJECTIVES  Explore influential factors contributing to ultrafine particle (UFP) variability in the presence of open air restaurant patios  Establishing a linear mixed model to make determinations on greatest effects  Higher than average concentrations at measured sites  Meteorological and traffic effects: most important predictors MAIN HYPOTHESES
  • 4. TABLE OF CONTENTS I. CONTEXT I. Near-Road Air Pollution & Health II. Ultrafine Particles III. Measurement Methodology IV. Statistical Methodology II. DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN I. Site Selection II. Equipment III. Protocol III. DATA PROCESSING I. UFP & Traffic Data II. Meteorological Data III. Land Use Data IV. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY V. RESULTS I. Descriptive Statistics II. Bivariate Analyses III. Modelling Results IV. Summary VI. DISCUSSION VII. CONCLUSION
  • 5. CONTEXT: Near-Road Air Pollution & Health in Urban Areas  In urban areas, motor vehicle exhaust a main contributor to air pollution  Diesel vehicles contribute to [UFP] disproportionate to their contribution to overall traffic count  Land use processes : residential/commercial heating  Street geometries  Health Effects: Increased risk of respiratory and cardiovascular effects CONTEXT I. Air Pollution & Health II. UFP III. Measuring IV. LMM DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS DISCUSSION CONCLUSION
  • 6. CONTEXT: Ultrafine Particles  A subset of fine particulate matter (equal to or less than 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter)  Defined as particles equal to or less than 0.1 µm in diameter  Typically composed of carbon-based material with inorganic ions  Nucleated UFP particles  COAGULATE or CONDENSE or EVAPORATE CONTEXT I. Air Pollution & Health II. UFP III. Measuring IV. LMM DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS DISCUSSION CONCLUSION
  • 7. CONTEXT I. Air Pollution & Health II. UFP III. Measuring IV. LMM DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS DISCUSSION CONCLUSION
  • 8. CONTEXT: Measurement Methodology  Condensation Particle Counter  Measures particles ranging from 0.01 µm to >1.0 µm  User friendliness and convenience  Programmable data logging CONTEXT I. Air Pollution & Health II. UFP III. Measuring IV. LMM DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS DISCUSSION CONCLUSION
  • 9. CONTEXT I. Air Pollution & Health II. UFP III. Measuring IV. LMM DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS DISCUSSION CONCLUSION
  • 10. CONTEXT: Statistical Methodology  What is a Linear Mixed-Effects Model?  An “extension” of a general linear model  “Mixed”: contains both FIXED and RANDOM elements  Model quality assessed using Akaike’s Information Criteria (AIC) reading  “Smaller-is-better” terms CONTEXT I. Air Pollution & Health II. UFP III. Measuring IV. LMM DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS DISCUSSION CONCLUSION
  • 11. CONTEXT: Statistical Methodology  Why Linear Mixed-Effects Models?  Study of repeated measures (within-subject correlated data)  Allows for more accurate interpretations of relationships CONTEXT I. Air Pollution & Health II. UFP III. Measuring IV. LMM DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS DISCUSSION CONCLUSION
  • 12. DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN I. Site Selection - Identifying areas of interest - Gathering of postal codes - Buffer creation to assess land use composition - Ensure site walkability: checking neighbourhood Walk Score ratings CONTEXT DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN I. Site Selection II. Equipment III. Protocol DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS DISCUSSION CONCLUSION
  • 13. CONTEXT DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN I. Site Selection II. Equipment III. Protocol DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS DISCUSSION CONCLUSION
  • 14. CONTEXT DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN I. Site Selection II. Equipment III. Protocol DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS DISCUSSION CONCLUSION SITE #1 (Plateau-Mont-Royal borough) DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN
  • 15. CONTEXT DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN I. Site Selection II. Equipment III. Protocol DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS DISCUSSION CONCLUSION DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN SITE #2 (Outremont borough)
  • 16. CONTEXT DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN I. Site Selection II. Equipment III. Protocol DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS DISCUSSION CONCLUSION DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN SITE #3 (Ville-Marie [downtown] borough)
  • 17. CONTEXT DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN I. Site Selection II. Equipment III. Protocol DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS DISCUSSION CONCLUSION DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN SITE #4 (Ville-Marie [downtown] borough)
  • 18. CONTEXT DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN I. Site Selection II. Equipment III. Protocol DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS DISCUSSION CONCLUSION DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN SITE #5 (Plateau-Mont-Royal borough)
  • 19. CONTEXT DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN I. Site Selection II. Equipment III. Protocol DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS DISCUSSION CONCLUSION DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN SITE #6 (Ville-Marie [downtown] borough)
  • 20. CONTEXT DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN I. Site Selection II. Equipment III. Protocol DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS DISCUSSION CONCLUSION DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN SITE #7 (Ville-Marie [downtown] borough)
  • 21. CONTEXT DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN I. Site Selection II. Equipment III. Protocol DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS DISCUSSION CONCLUSION DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN SITE #8 (Southwest borough)
  • 22. DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN II. Equipment Condensation Particle Counter (CPC) GoPro Video Camera Recorder CONTEXT DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN I. Site Selection II. Equipment III. Protocol DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS DISCUSSION CONCLUSION
  • 23. DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN III. Protocol - 8 study sites (4 visits to each site; each visit unique in type of day and time of day) - 2 hours of data collection per visit Data Collected - UFP number concentrations - Traffic counts - Meteorological Data (from weather stations) Equipment Position - Approximately 1 m above ground - Near-roadway, in proximity to patio CONTEXT DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN I. Site Selection II. Equipment III. Protocol DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS DISCUSSION CONCLUSION
  • 24. DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN III. Protocol CAMPAIGN STIPULATIONS - No site visited twice on the same collection day. - No site visited twice during the same day of a collection week. - No measurements conducted on Fridays. - Discard data in the event of inclement weather. CAMPAIGN DURATION 20 days (10 weekdays + 10 weekends) spanning 8 weeks CONTEXT DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN I. Site Selection II. Equipment III. Protocol DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS DISCUSSION CONCLUSION
  • 25. DATA PROCESSING UFP DATA & TRAFFIC DATA Data entries for each visit divided into 15-minute intervals (8 entries/visit) * 15-minute averages for logged per-minute UFP data * Manual counts of traffic for matching 15-minute intervals CONTEXT DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN DATA PROCESSING I. UFP & Traffic II. Meteo III. Land Use STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS DISCUSSION CONCLUSION
  • 26. DATA PROCESSING METEOROLOGICAL DATA - Meteorological data from 2 fixed monitoring stations: Trudeau International Airport and MacTavish Automated Weather Station Temperature r = 0.959 Relative Humidity r = 0.901 Wind Speed r = 0.731 CONTEXT DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN DATA PROCESSING I. UFP & Traffic II. Meteo III. Land Use STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS DISCUSSION CONCLUSION
  • 27. DATA PROCESSING METEOROLOGICAL DATA FMS Temperature RH Wind Speed MacTavish -.212 -.134 .119 Dorval (Airport) -.205 -.237 .012 Data Comparison between FMS (Pearson Correlations with ln(UFP)) Dorval (Airport) meteorological data retained for analysis. Orthogonality Index = sin (θw – θs) where θw represents the angle at which the wind intersects with the street θs represents the angle of the street relative to true north (in clockwise direction) CONTEXT DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN DATA PROCESSING I. UFP & Traffic II. Meteo III. Land Use STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS DISCUSSION CONCLUSION
  • 28. DATA PROCESSING LAND USE DATA - GIS processing: Land use types (100m buffers) Road infrastructure Vegetation index Pollution levels -------------------------- Land use (entropy) index  where a value of 1 indicates complete land use homogeneity CONTEXT DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN DATA PROCESSING I. UFP & Traffic II. Meteo III. Land Use STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS DISCUSSION CONCLUSION
  • 29. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY Linear Mixed Model with Random Intercept Dependent Variable: Natural logarithm of mean UFP concentrations Independent Variables: Variable selection based on univariate analysis Avoid collinearity between variables Add/create variables to decrease Akaike’s Information Criteria (AIC) CONTEXT DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS DISCUSSION CONCLUSION
  • 30. RESULTS DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS Variable Units Mean Std. Dev Min Max UFP #/cm3 37946.98 15482.48 8944.5 91694.1 lnUFP - 10.46 0.42 9.1 11.4 CONTEXT DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS I. Descriptive Statistics II. Bivariate Analyses III. Modelling Results IV. Summary DISCUSSION CONCLUSION
  • 31. RESULTS UFP Concentration by LocationCONTEXT DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS I. Descriptive Statistics II. Bivariate Analyses III. Modelling Results IV. Summary DISCUSSION CONCLUSION
  • 32. RESULTS BIVARIATE ANALYSIS Temperature vs Mean UFP Concentration Pearson Correlation: -0.175, p = 0.005 CONTEXT DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS I. Descriptive Statistics II. Bivariate Analyses III. Modelling Results IV. Summary DISCUSSION CONCLUSION
  • 33. RESULTS BIVARIATE ANALYSIS Relative Humidity vs Mean UFP Concentration Pearson Correlation: -0.212, p = 0.001 CONTEXT DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS I. Descriptive Statistics II. Bivariate Analyses III. Modelling Results IV. Summary DISCUSSION CONCLUSION
  • 34. RESULTS BIVARIATE ANALYSIS Commercial Zoning vs Mean UFP Concentration Pearson Correlation: 0.235, p = < 0.0005 CONTEXT DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS I. Descriptive Statistics II. Bivariate Analyses III. Modelling Results IV. Summary DISCUSSION CONCLUSION
  • 35. RESULTS BIVARIATE ANALYSIS Entropy Index vs Mean UFP Concentration Pearson Correlation: 0.197, p = 0.002 CONTEXT DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS I. Descriptive Statistics II. Bivariate Analyses III. Modelling Results IV. Summary DISCUSSION CONCLUSION
  • 36. RESULTS BIVARIATE ANALYSIS Weekday vs Mean UFP Concentration Pearson Correlation: -0.199, p = 0.001 Dummy variable: (1) Indicates a weekday CONTEXT DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS I. Descriptive Statistics II. Bivariate Analyses III. Modelling Results IV. Summary DISCUSSION CONCLUSION
  • 37. RESULTS BIVARIATE ANALYSIS Evening Hour vs Mean UFP Concentration Pearson Correlation: -.140, p = 0.025 Dummy variable: (1) Indicates evening measurements CONTEXT DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS I. Descriptive Statistics II. Bivariate Analyses III. Modelling Results IV. Summary DISCUSSION CONCLUSION
  • 38. RESULTS LINEAR MIXED MODEL FOR LN(UFP) (AIC = 182.07) Parameter Units Estimate SE T Sig. 95% CI Intercept - 11.221 0.231 48.543 <0.0005 10.758 11.683 Weekday = (0) (dummy) 0.209 0.043 4.86 <0.0005 0.124 0.294 Weekday = (1) (dummy) 0 0 EveningHr = (0) (dummy) 0.134 0.046 2.932 0.004 0.044 0.224 EveningHr = (1) (dummy) 0 0 Temperature_Dorval °C -0.037 0.007 -5.370 <0.0005 -0.056 -0.025 RelHum_Dorval % -0.009 0.002 -4.056 <0.0005 -0.014 -0.005 OrthogonalIndex_Dorval - 0.386 0.074 5.202 <0.0005 0.240 0.533 WindSpd_Dorval km/h -0.011 0.005 -2.199 0.059 -0.023 0.001 Entropy - 0.190 0.153 1.237 0.267 -0.196 0.576 Estimates of Covariance Parameters Parameter Estimate S.E. Residual 0.102 0.009 Intercept + <0.0005 0.0008 WindSpd_Dorval <0.0005 <0.0005 CONTEXT DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS I. Descriptive Statistics II. Bivariate Analyses III. Modelling Results IV. Summary DISCUSSION CONCLUSION
  • 39. CONTRIBUTION TO KNOWLEDGE  Highest levels of UFP measured during daytime periods on the weekend.  Meteorological variables hold inverse relationships with UFP concentrations.  Orthogonal winds favour increased number concentrations.  Traffic variables affected UFP negligibly.  Variables of particular interest, commercial zoning and number of restaurants, hold positive associations with [UFP]. CONTEXT DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS I. Descriptive Statistics II. Bivariate Analyses III. Modelling Results IV. Summary DISCUSSION CONCLUSION
  • 40. DISCUSSION Accounting for above average UFP concentrations… - Consider effect of smoking and restaurant activity on pollutant levels (neither were included in the study) - Urban heat island effect - Early May start to campaign  measurements conducted in lower temperatures CONTEXT DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS DISCUSSION CONCLUSION
  • 41. DISCUSSION Explaining counterintuitive traffic results… - Must consider background concentrations from nearby roads - Possible effect of traffic captured within temporal predictors retained in the final model - Potential counting errors CONTEXT DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS DISCUSSION CONCLUSION
  • 42. CONCLUSION Future Work - Additional study sites - On-site meteorological data collection - Need to assess more ‘patio’-centric variables (location of exhaust fan, smoking policies) - Comparison with similar studies conducted in other cities - Before-and-after study to evaluate the impact of initiatives aimed to reduce near-road concentrations (i.e. pedestrianization schemes) CONTEXT DATA COLLECTION CAMPAIGN DATA PROCESSING STATISTICAL ANALYSIS : METHODOLOGY RESULTS DISCUSSION CONCLUSION

Editor's Notes

  1. While many studies have been done exploring UFPs, very few have focused on UFPs in mixed use environments Influential factors relating to meteorology, to built environment, and to traffic Higher than average concentrations : most of the sites located in the downtown core Define what “average” means  use chart on Slide 9
  2. Interdisciplinary nature of the study Popularity of spaces Contribution of spaces to city’s cultural identity The by-product of what is generally accepted as good urban design (when you consider how mixed use environments reduce origin-destination trip length – mixed used neighbourhoods housing employment centres close to retail/commercial spaces) *In many instances, cities identify these growth corridors and strategically invest in transit along these corridors Important in how this study relates back to our field of transportation engineering
  3. Discuss the pie chart. (from HEI Health Panel) Mobile sources accounting for over half of overall UFP concentrations (identified using mass emissions data for Los Angeles, 1996) Residential and commercial heating: this is especially important during the winter months (likewise, cooling during the summer months) So what happens, for example, in the winter, is that the Earth’s surface receives less warmth from the Sun and warmer air aloft acts as a lid and presses down on the column of colder air closer to the ground, trapping pollutants coming from homes and businesses Trapping of pollutants on street-level due to configuration of road (i.e. canyon effects) Increased risk of health effects: symptoms exacerbated among individuals with respiratory illnesses, but also among healthy individuals
  4. Discuss process from nucleation of UFP  emission  brief lifespan of UFP (a couple of seconds to a couple days)  options to either coagulate to form larger particles, gas condensing onto particles, evaporation, or deposition Generation: UFPs are formed in the engine during the combustion process as well as during the journey of the exhaust as it moves through the exhaust line and toward the tailpipe, when it is finally released into the atmosphere as nanoparticles The gradual cooling of the exhaust causes organic compounds and ions to nucleate, forming new particles in the nanometer range as a result Once these nanoparticles are emitted, several scenarios can occur: They may coagulate and form larger particles They may also grow larger in size as new material condenses onto its surface They may evaporate completely This partially explains why UFP concentrations are believed to be difficult to capture
  5. So this graph explains the formation of nanoparticles As you can see, the majority of UFPs are formed during the process where exhaust begins to cool (this stage known here as the nuclei mode), but they contribute almost nothing to the overall mass This is why many researchers opt to measure PNC as opposed to PMC
  6. Despite the fact that many larger sized particles are measured based on PMC, the previous slide illustrates why it is difficult to measure UFP PMC These machines are extremely portable and are able to be transported from site to site
  7. This graph is a compilation of UFP studies conducted based on the type of measurement location showing the mean and median of their UFP results Here we have the median UFP count measured inside a tunnel at 99 000 particles and the median UFP count measured at clean backgrounds at 3 000 particles As you can see, the greater the air circulation in a particular environment, the lesser the mean/median UFP counts Focus your attention on the third couple of columns (road-side)  median of 34 000 – 35 000 particles
  8. Random effects: Influence concentrations differently at different locations Difference with a general linear model is that mixed models consider potential correlations between observed measurements Hierarchy of multiple levels  upper level indicates subjects, lower level indicates measurements within subjects AIC: based on the rule of ‘smaller value is better’
  9. We are able to interpret clearer relationships in the second graph if there exists correlation between the measurements
  10. Very walkable spaces
  11. Lunch and dinner hour
  12. Consistency of results
  13. Whiskers overlap with each other, suggesting that on any given day, we may be able to observe UFP concentrations that are the same across all locations, and this may partially explain some of the final results
  14. Simply looking at general trends
  15. Concentrations are higher and more variable during the weekend
  16. Concentrations are higher during the daytime (which is what we expect as we expect more foot traffic during the daytime)
  17. So we have retained temperature, RH, OI, and wind speed as meteorological predictors, entropy as a land use predictor, and type and time of day as temporal predictors EXPLAIN WHY WIND SPEED AND ENTROPY ARE INCLUDED IN THE MODEL EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE NOT STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT. Wind Speed: absence of on-site meteorological data collection may play a factor in variable not being statistically significant, and wind speed when added as a random effect lowers the AIC Entropy: small sample size of 8 sites, 8 sites displaying similar land use compositions (at least based on buffers created)
  18. Possibly more personal freedom allowed during the weekend, leading to possible increased trip generation and attraction to these spaces; greater daytime concentrations may suggest that measurements were conducted during episodes of lower temperatures or in the event of perpendicular winds Meteorology: these relationships were hypothesized and confirmed Another hypothesis confirmed is the increase of PNC in the event of orthogonal winds A key finding is the negligible effect of traffic variables on UFP (given what we know about the generation of UFP in vehicle engines and through exhaust lines, this was surprising) Finally, another key finding is that commercial zoning as well as the increased land use homogeneity of a certain area increases UFP, and this pertains to this study of looking at mixed use neighbourhoods and patio environments
  19. So how could we possible account for above average UFP concentrations at the selected sites? (Some sites exhibited concentrations as high as 70 000 and 80 000) Effects of nearby smoking and cooking activities were not captured in this study, and both are known to play a role in increasing concentrations Possible urban heat island effects  relates to the nature of building materials such as concrete which absorbs more warmth from the Sun As a result, this effect raises demand for electrical energy, which puts more demand on power plants, which in turn emit more pollutants Early start to the campaign meant measuring in lower temperatures (lower temperatures associated with higher concentrations) DOES THIS POINT CONTRADICT THE FORMER POINT? A balance between the lower temperatures and the amount of energy consumed is achieved?
  20. Background streets and roads may possibly contribute to observed measurements (these background sources were not captured in our study) Time of day and type of day inherently linked with traffic Potential counting errors that may arise as a result of manual counting
  21. Future improvements of this study may include: -Additional study sites: In the end, it was difficult to achieve an optimal degree of land use variability between study sites (site surroundings fairly similar among a number of the sites, which does make sense because nobody wants to be eating on a patio located beside an industrial park…but they may exist) -More patio-related variables: given the importance of cooking fumes and smoking as urban sources of UFP, future studies can propose methodologies to capture these effects as well -Comparison with other similar studies from other cities: Analyzing other cities where patios are popular and prevalent (particularly European cities, which share some of the ‘cultural flavours’ of Montreal and also because they differ from many NA cities in terms of their land use composition) -Before and after studies: looking to evaluate the effectiveness of initiatives aimed at reducing near-road concentrations such as pedestrianizing roads during the weekday daytime periods (as we have found in this study as observing the highest UFP concentrations) , policies such as requiring restaurants to implement better exhaust fan technologies or implementing smoking bans
  22. See if time allows to discuss implications of results