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 The	
  Future	
  of	
  Work	
  	
  
	
  Insights	
  from	
  Discussions	
  Building	
  on	
  an	
  Ini4al	
  Perspec4ve	
...
Context	
  
The	
  ini4al	
  perspec4ve	
  on	
  the	
  Future	
  of	
  Work	
  kicked	
  off	
  the	
  	
  
Future	
  Agen...
The	
  Global	
  Challenge	
  
The	
  global	
  challenge	
  of	
  work	
  is	
  two-­‐fold.	
  First,	
  will	
  automa4o...
Manufacturing	
  vs.	
  Services	
  
One	
  of	
  the	
  reasons	
  for	
  the	
  boom	
  in	
  living	
  standards	
  in	...
Peak	
  Globalisa=on	
  
Globalisa4on	
  is	
  reaching	
  its	
  limits.	
  Wages	
  in	
  export	
  sectors	
  in	
  bot...
Posi=ve	
  Immigra=on	
  
Economists	
  agree	
  that	
  immigra4on	
  is	
  good	
  for	
  economies.	
  Migrants	
  tend...
Technology	
  Takeover	
  
There	
  is	
  a	
  widespread	
  fear	
  that	
  the	
  rise	
  of	
  robots	
  -­‐	
  or	
  m...
Good	
  Jobs	
  
Companies	
  out-­‐perform	
  through	
  a	
  combina4on	
  of	
  be[er	
  wages,	
  investment	
  	
  
i...
External	
  Drivers	
  	
  
Much	
  of	
  the	
  labor	
  market	
  woes	
  of	
  the	
  past	
  decade	
  are	
  down	
  ...
Post	
  Modern	
  Workplaces	
  
We	
  are	
  on	
  the	
  cusp	
  of	
  a	
  transi4on	
  to	
  a	
  world	
  where,	
  h...
Perfect	
  Storm	
  
The	
  explana4on	
  that	
  seems	
  best	
  to	
  fit	
  present	
  state	
  of	
  work	
  is	
  tha...
Living	
  Wage	
  
Un4l	
  very	
  recently,	
  the	
  idea	
  of	
  a	
  basic	
  income,	
  a	
  minimum	
  sum	
  paid	...
Less	
  is	
  Not	
  More	
  
Increased	
  automa4on	
  allows	
  us	
  to	
  produce	
  more	
  with	
  less,	
  	
  
dec...
Smart	
  Mindfulness	
  
We	
  take	
  more	
  care	
  of	
  our	
  smartphones	
  than	
  we	
  do	
  of	
  ourselves.	
 ...
Over-­‐=red	
  and	
  Over-­‐worked	
  
Our	
  defini4on	
  of	
  success	
  and	
  the	
  adop4on	
  of	
  an	
  always-­‐...
Hollowing	
  Out	
  the	
  Professions	
  
Technology	
  is	
  challenging	
  the	
  white-­‐collar	
  worker	
  and	
  au...
Skill	
  Concentra=ons	
  
The	
  growth	
  of	
  the	
  nomadic	
  global	
  elite	
  ci4zenship	
  accelerates	
  the	
 ...
Suppor=ng	
  the	
  Ageing	
  Workforce	
  
As	
  major	
  economies	
  suffer	
  from	
  increasing	
  dependency	
  ra4os...
Wi-­‐fi	
  Global	
  Nomads	
  
For	
  some	
  in	
  the	
  knowledge	
  economy	
  the	
  poten4al	
  for	
  con4nuous	
  ...
Two-­‐Way	
  Trust	
  
An	
  increase	
  in	
  trust	
  between	
  employees	
  and	
  employers	
  builds	
  	
  
greater...
Surplus	
  People	
  
We	
  need	
  to	
  make	
  posi4ve	
  choices	
  to	
  avoid	
  a	
  world	
  of	
  increased	
  
	...
Making	
  Work	
  Work	
  (for	
  People	
  and	
  Work)	
  	
  
We	
  will	
  see	
  a	
  shib	
  in	
  priority	
  from	...
Lower	
  Growth	
  Economy	
  
Lower	
  expecta4ons	
  for	
  economic	
  growth	
  in	
  many	
  regions	
  will	
  see	
...
Inequality	
  Dilemma	
  
The	
  inequality	
  dichotomy	
  in	
  developing	
  countries	
  con4nues	
  to	
  expand,	
  ...
African	
  Spring	
  
Ineffec4ve	
  governance	
  encourages	
  a	
  disaffected	
  popula4on	
  to	
  demand	
  new	
  
pol...
Skills	
  Flight	
  vs.	
  Social	
  Isola=on	
  
	
  Economic	
  migrants	
  to	
  move	
  to	
  regional	
  economic	
  ...
Private	
  Investment	
  in	
  State	
  Infrastructure	
  
Con4nued	
  decline	
  of	
  trust	
  in	
  Governments	
  lead...
Back	
  to	
  the	
  Village	
  
In	
  developing	
  markets,	
  increased	
  societal	
  fragmenta4on,	
  off-­‐grid	
  li...
21st	
  Century	
  Organisa=ons	
  
The	
  emerging	
  organisa4on	
  feels	
  very	
  different	
  from	
  c20th	
  compan...
A	
  New	
  Social	
  Contract	
  
Defini4ons	
  of	
  success	
  become	
  more	
  personally	
  meaningful	
  to	
  	
  
...
Constant	
  Learning	
  and	
  Skill	
  Development	
  
Personalised	
  and	
  contextually	
  relevant	
  on-­‐the-­‐job	...
Wisdom	
  Workers	
  
Focus	
  is	
  on	
  enabling	
  reinven4on	
  stemming	
  from	
  opportuni4es	
  created	
  by	
  ...
Cyber	
  Reputa=ons	
  
Personal	
  and	
  corporate	
  cyber	
  reputa4ons	
  move	
  with	
  the	
  
individual,	
  enab...
Feminine	
  Spirit	
  
Leading	
  organisa4ons,	
  in	
  par4cular	
  those	
  in	
  the	
  West,	
  	
  promote	
  and	
 ...
The	
  Fun	
  Factor	
  
As	
  a[rac4on	
  and	
  reten4on	
  for	
  jobs	
  becomes	
  more	
  compe44ve	
  in	
  a	
  fr...
Future	
  Agenda	
  
84	
  Brook	
  Street	
  
London	
  
W1K	
  5EH	
  
+44	
  203	
  0088	
  141	
  
futureagenda.org	
 ...
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Future of work Insights from discussions building on an initial perspective by Andrew Curry of The Futures Company

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The initial perspective on the Future of Work byby Andrew Curry of The Futures Company kicked off the Future Agenda 2.0 global discussions taking place through 2015. This summary builds on the initial view and is updated as we progress the futureagenda2.0 programme. www.futureagenda.org

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Future of work Insights from discussions building on an initial perspective by Andrew Curry of The Futures Company

  1. 1.  The  Future  of  Work      Insights  from  Discussions  Building  on  an  Ini4al  Perspec4ve  by:    Andrew  Curry  |  Director,  Global  Knowledge  Lead  |  The  Futures  Company  
  2. 2. Context   The  ini4al  perspec4ve  on  the  Future  of  Work  kicked  off  the     Future  Agenda  2.0  global  discussions  taking  place  through  2015.     This  summary  builds  on  the  ini4al  view  and  is  updated  as  we  progress.   Ini4al   Perspec4ves   Q4  2014   Global   Discussions   Q1/2  2015   Insight   Synthesis   Q3  2015   Sharing     Output   Q4  2015  
  3. 3. The  Global  Challenge   The  global  challenge  of  work  is  two-­‐fold.  First,  will  automa4on,  in  its     various  forms,  destroy  jobs?  And  second,  even  if  not,  will  workers     be  paid  enough  to  sustain  the  global  economic  system?  
  4. 4. Manufacturing  vs.  Services   One  of  the  reasons  for  the  boom  in  living  standards  in  the  C20th  was  because   of  the  long  boom  in  manufacturing,  the  dominant  economic  trend  for  much  of   the  century.  Produc4vity  growth  tends  to  fall  as  services  become  dominant.  
  5. 5. Peak  Globalisa=on   Globalisa4on  is  reaching  its  limits.  Wages  in  export  sectors  in  both  China  and   India  are  now  rela4vely  high  and  companies  are  moving  their  produc4on  closer   to  their  markets,  wan4ng  to  be  able  to  respond  more  flexibly  to  demand.    
  6. 6. Posi=ve  Immigra=on   Economists  agree  that  immigra4on  is  good  for  economies.  Migrants  tend  to  be   younger,  more  enterprising,  and  economically  ac4ve,  and  their  effect  on   wages,  economic  growth  and  tax  contribu4ons  is  almost  completely  posi4ve.  
  7. 7. Technology  Takeover   There  is  a  widespread  fear  that  the  rise  of  robots  -­‐  or  more  exactly,  a   combina4on  of  compu4ng  power,  algorithms  and  robo4cs  -­‐  will  destroy     the  labour  market,  even,  possibly,  the  very  idea  of  labour  value.  
  8. 8. Good  Jobs   Companies  out-­‐perform  through  a  combina4on  of  be[er  wages,  investment     in  training,  and  appropriate  technological  investment  to  support  staff…  High   value  work  benefits  individuals,  businesses,  as  well  as  society  as  a  whole.  
  9. 9. External  Drivers     Much  of  the  labor  market  woes  of  the  past  decade  are  down  to  the     financial  crisis,  reduced  investment  and  the  impact  of  globalisa4on.  Many   middle-­‐skill  jobs  will  prove  more  resistant  to  unbundling  than  adver4sed.  
  10. 10. Post  Modern  Workplaces   We  are  on  the  cusp  of  a  transi4on  to  a  world  where,  half  of  the  popula4ons     of  Europe  and  the  United  States  subscribe  to  post-­‐modern  values  of     autonomy  and  diversity.  The  workplace  will  not  escape  this  trend.    
  11. 11. Perfect  Storm   The  explana4on  that  seems  best  to  fit  present  state  of  work  is  that  it  has  been   through  a  “perfect  storm”  of  a  globalised  workforce,  the  deskilling  of  rou4ne   work  and  the  shib  of  these  workers  into  manual  or  service  work.    
  12. 12. Living  Wage   Un4l  very  recently,  the  idea  of  a  basic  income,  a  minimum  sum  paid  to  all   people  regardless  of  their  work  status,  was  right  at  the  fringe  of  poli4cal   discourse.  But  it  has  been  moving  rapidly  towards  the  mainstream.    
  13. 13. Less  is  Not  More   Increased  automa4on  allows  us  to  produce  more  with  less,     decoupling  the  link  between  wages  and  produc4vity.  Many  na4onal     policies  have  to  address  an  increasingly  under  employed  workforce.  
  14. 14. Smart  Mindfulness   We  take  more  care  of  our  smartphones  than  we  do  of  ourselves.     Many  corpora4ons  adopt  new  technology  to  help  workers  manage  stress     and  remain  both  physically  and  mentally  fit  and  produc4ve.    
  15. 15. Over-­‐=red  and  Over-­‐worked   Our  defini4on  of  success  and  the  adop4on  of  an  always-­‐connected  work-­‐life   have  made  the  millennial  genera4on  more  stressed  and  over-­‐4red  than  any   other.  The  high-­‐achievers  will  con4nue  to  pay  a  high  price  for  success.    
  16. 16. Hollowing  Out  the  Professions   Technology  is  challenging  the  white-­‐collar  worker  and  automa4ng  both     middle  and  high-­‐end  jobs.  The  future  will  see  fewer  accountants,  lawyers    and  doctors  and  a  hollowing  out  of  the  previously  ‘safe’  professions.  
  17. 17. Skill  Concentra=ons   The  growth  of  the  nomadic  global  elite  ci4zenship  accelerates  the   concentra4on  of  the  high-­‐skill  /  high-­‐reward  opportuni4es  within  a  select     group  of  globally-­‐connected  ci4zens,  who  move  ahead  of  the  urban  pack.  
  18. 18. Suppor=ng  the  Ageing  Workforce   As  major  economies  suffer  from  increasing  dependency  ra4os,  the  challenge    of  suppor4ng  an  increasingly  older  workforce  demands  rethinking  of  life-­‐long   learning  and  broader  acceptance  of  the  cost  of  part-­‐4me  flexible  jobs.  
  19. 19. Wi-­‐fi  Global  Nomads   For  some  in  the  knowledge  economy  the  poten4al  for  con4nuous  travel,   blended  with  part-­‐4me  work,  is  focused  on  ‘wi-­‐fi  hopping’for  regular  access    to  high-­‐speed  connec4vity  -­‐  no  ma[er  where  in  the  world  they  are.  
  20. 20. Two-­‐Way  Trust   An  increase  in  trust  between  employees  and  employers  builds     greater  alignment  and  enables  democra4sa4on  of  the  workplace,    more  flexible  ways  of  working  and  more  effec4ve  organisa4ons.  
  21. 21. Surplus  People   We  need  to  make  posi4ve  choices  to  avoid  a  world  of  increased    automa4on  with  surplus  people  seeking  employment  and     greater  economic  exploita4on  of  those  in  work.  
  22. 22. Making  Work  Work  (for  People  and  Work)     We  will  see  a  shib  in  priority  from  ‘money  ma[ers’  to  ‘meaning  ma[ers’.     This  will  lead  to  the  emergence  of  community  and  wellbeing     managers  in  organisa4ons  and  new  ways  to  measure  success.  
  23. 23. Lower  Growth  Economy   Lower  expecta4ons  for  economic  growth  in  many  regions  will  see     greater  use  of  robots  to  increase  produc4vity,  changing  spending     pa[erns  and  a  rise  in  the  sharing  economy.    
  24. 24. Inequality  Dilemma   The  inequality  dichotomy  in  developing  countries  con4nues  to  expand,  beyond   just  wealth  and  opportunity:  Gender,  race  and  skills  gaps  all  increase  and,  even   as  some  of  the  poorest  see  improvements,  the  wealthy  pull  further  away.  
  25. 25. African  Spring   Ineffec4ve  governance  encourages  a  disaffected  popula4on  to  demand  new   poli4cal  leaders  who  put  the  needs  of  the  public  before  their  own:  Voices  from   the  middle  and  wealthy  classes  ini4ate  necessary  system  change  themselves.  
  26. 26. Skills  Flight  vs.  Social  Isola=on    Economic  migrants  to  move  to  regional  economic  centres  of  excellence.  More   fragmented,  imbalanced  socie4es  are  leb  behind,  with  surplus  low-­‐skilled   labour,  falling  wages  and  a  rise  in  poli4cal  isola4on  and  aggression.  
  27. 27. Private  Investment  in  State  Infrastructure   Con4nued  decline  of  trust  in  Governments  leads  to  more  private  capital     filling  the  gaps  leb  by  inadequate  governance  and  inappropriate  investment.   This  includes  more  interven4ons  in  energy,  transport  and  educa4on.    
  28. 28. Back  to  the  Village   In  developing  markets,  increased  societal  fragmenta4on,  off-­‐grid  living  and  a   growing  disenchantment  with  the  inefficiency  of  the  status  quo  leads  to  a   return  to  community  ‘village’  lifestyle  where  local  independence  reigns.  
  29. 29. 21st  Century  Organisa=ons   The  emerging  organisa4on  feels  very  different  from  c20th  companies  -­‐   collabora4ve,  crowd-­‐funded,  fla[er,  human-­‐focused,  hyper-­‐specialised,   informal,  localised,  out-­‐sourced,  project-­‐based,  purpose-­‐led  and  virtual.    
  30. 30. A  New  Social  Contract   Defini4ons  of  success  become  more  personally  meaningful  to     each  individual  and  are  supported  by  employers,  re-­‐purposed     unions  and  the  power  of  the  sharing  economy  network.  
  31. 31. Constant  Learning  and  Skill  Development   Personalised  and  contextually  relevant  on-­‐the-­‐job  training     and  educa4on  will  extend  effec4ve  working  lives  and     ensure  that  skills  are  constantly  refreshed.  
  32. 32. Wisdom  Workers   Focus  is  on  enabling  reinven4on  stemming  from  opportuni4es  created  by     non-­‐linear  career  paths  and  innova4on  networks,  giving  rise  to  the  ‘wisdom   worker’  -­‐  where  experience  is  the  cri4cal  addi4on  to  skills  and  intelligence.  
  33. 33. Cyber  Reputa=ons   Personal  and  corporate  cyber  reputa4ons  move  with  the   individual,  enabling  transparency  and  accountability  about     performance  of  services  and  interac4ons.      
  34. 34. Feminine  Spirit   Leading  organisa4ons,  in  par4cular  those  in  the  West,    promote  and   invest  in  women,  be[er  represen4ng  the  popula4ons  that  they  serve.   Many  benefit  from  doing  so.  
  35. 35. The  Fun  Factor   As  a[rac4on  and  reten4on  for  jobs  becomes  more  compe44ve  in  a  freelance   world,  companies  aim  to  “elevate”  the  workplace  experience  -­‐  reducing   rou4ne  drudgery  and  emphasizing  self-­‐actualising,  fun  experiences.  
  36. 36. Future  Agenda   84  Brook  Street   London   W1K  5EH   +44  203  0088  141   futureagenda.org   The  world’s  leading  open  foresight  program   What  do  you  think?   Join  In  |  Add  your  views  into  the  mix     www.futureagenda.org  

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