The document summarizes economic indicators in the UK for the week ending June 23rd, 2012. Inflation fell to 2.8% in May driven down by lower fuel and food prices. Unemployment data sent mixed signals, with the claimant count rising slightly but unemployment falling in other measures. Retail sales rose 2.4% in May, with a large increase in online sales. The Bank of England minutes suggested more quantitative easing may follow in July to boost the stalling economy.
* For personal tour the houses listed below, contact Ben Huynh 281-561-5386.
* To sell / lease your home, email me your property address, WE will start from there.
* To be the first person to view newest listings, send me your email address & you will be notified.
* More interesting information on my Facebook Wall “Ben Huynh-Realtor.”
* You can Text, IM, Email or Call me during & after business hours @ 832-607-1679 (T Mobile.)
Presented by: Norman Uphoff, CIIFAD, Cornell University, USA
Presented at: Rice Research and Training Institute, Kafr-el-Sheikh
Date Presented: 04/14/2010
* For personal tour the houses listed below, contact Ben Huynh 281-561-5386.
* To sell / lease your home, email me your property address, WE will start from there.
* To be the first person to view newest listings, send me your email address & you will be notified.
* More interesting information on my Facebook Wall “Ben Huynh-Realtor.”
* You can Text, IM, Email or Call me during & after business hours @ 832-607-1679 (T Mobile.)
Presented by: Norman Uphoff, CIIFAD, Cornell University, USA
Presented at: Rice Research and Training Institute, Kafr-el-Sheikh
Date Presented: 04/14/2010
This assessment taught us on how to establish a re-branding within time and budget brackets. Our running campaign has to recreate an existing business to a successful both in-store and online character. The assignment also went into detail about how to establish upgrades within a company. The company assessment analysed internal and external factors on the marketing of Remedy.
The Financial Recession that hit British economy recently resulted in severe unemployment and job loss across UK. The Recession did have many implications on the British labour market. This paper will have an insight into the implications of Recession on graduate labour market in UK. The data provided by the Association of Graduate Recruiters, Office for National Statistics and High Fliers Research Limited on graduate recruitment market in UK was used to carry out the study. The study will be based on the comparison of graduate recruitment market in the years 2009 and 2010. The comparison of graduate recruitment market will be based on the analysis of graduate labour market for the years 2009 and 2010. This paper will try predicting whether the year 2010 is a favourable year for graduates or not. It will also have an insight into the attitude of students towards recession and will provide necessary recommendations.
Ignite your ...future champions jan 2013Alan Scrase
IGNITE your…. Future Champions
Presenter – Laura Smith, Policy Adviser at Confederation of British Industry (CBI) will present the CBI’s report:
“Future Champions: unlocking growth in the UK's medium-sized businesses”.
Medium-sized businesses are the UK's "forgotten army", too long overlooked by government but with the potential to inject between £20bn and £50bn into the economy by 2020, according to the CBI.
The CBI is calling for a broader range of finance to be made available to medium-sized businesses. With banks' lending constrained, these firms can no longer rely solely on bank lending for long-term growth capital to invest in their companies.
The CBI is the UK's leading business organisation, speaking for some 240,000 businesses that together employ around a third of the private sector workforce. With offices across the UK as well as representation in Brussels, Washington, Beijing and Delhi the CBI communicates the British business voice around the world.
Stop looking out of the window and start looking in the mirror (2014)Tony Mattson
Our economy has a productivity problem. The solution is to address our engagement deficit and I believe that marketers are best placed to lead this.
However, marketing professionals have traditionally concerned themselves with external demand- side growth from customers rather than internal supply-side performance from employees. This has to change.
If marketers can embrace this opportunity, they will not only help themselves in their quests to become the business leaders of tomorrow; they will also improve their organisations’ performance and contribute to the wider health of the UK economy.
The Saturday Economist Private Client GroupJohn Ashcroft
This is the brochure for The Saturday Economist Private Client Group. We continue to work with a number of clients in addition to the Saturday Economist and The Saturday Economist Live. Join our Private Client group. You will have access to all of the Premium Subscriber content plus our work on scenario modelling, digital accommodation, disruptive innovation and platforms for growth. You will have access to personalized on line updates and our "Lunch at The Lowry" events.
The Saturday Economist Bond Market SentinelJohn Ashcroft
This is the Bond Market Sentinel analysis available
to members of the Saturday Economist Club. We monitor ten year gilt and bond yields in the US and the UK together with a look along the yield curve.
For exchange rates check out our weekly exchange rate updates. For the outlook on copper and metals check out our weekly metals update.
The comments on markets should not be construed as the giving of investment advice. Markets do not always behave according to trend.
This assessment taught us on how to establish a re-branding within time and budget brackets. Our running campaign has to recreate an existing business to a successful both in-store and online character. The assignment also went into detail about how to establish upgrades within a company. The company assessment analysed internal and external factors on the marketing of Remedy.
The Financial Recession that hit British economy recently resulted in severe unemployment and job loss across UK. The Recession did have many implications on the British labour market. This paper will have an insight into the implications of Recession on graduate labour market in UK. The data provided by the Association of Graduate Recruiters, Office for National Statistics and High Fliers Research Limited on graduate recruitment market in UK was used to carry out the study. The study will be based on the comparison of graduate recruitment market in the years 2009 and 2010. The comparison of graduate recruitment market will be based on the analysis of graduate labour market for the years 2009 and 2010. This paper will try predicting whether the year 2010 is a favourable year for graduates or not. It will also have an insight into the attitude of students towards recession and will provide necessary recommendations.
Ignite your ...future champions jan 2013Alan Scrase
IGNITE your…. Future Champions
Presenter – Laura Smith, Policy Adviser at Confederation of British Industry (CBI) will present the CBI’s report:
“Future Champions: unlocking growth in the UK's medium-sized businesses”.
Medium-sized businesses are the UK's "forgotten army", too long overlooked by government but with the potential to inject between £20bn and £50bn into the economy by 2020, according to the CBI.
The CBI is calling for a broader range of finance to be made available to medium-sized businesses. With banks' lending constrained, these firms can no longer rely solely on bank lending for long-term growth capital to invest in their companies.
The CBI is the UK's leading business organisation, speaking for some 240,000 businesses that together employ around a third of the private sector workforce. With offices across the UK as well as representation in Brussels, Washington, Beijing and Delhi the CBI communicates the British business voice around the world.
Stop looking out of the window and start looking in the mirror (2014)Tony Mattson
Our economy has a productivity problem. The solution is to address our engagement deficit and I believe that marketers are best placed to lead this.
However, marketing professionals have traditionally concerned themselves with external demand- side growth from customers rather than internal supply-side performance from employees. This has to change.
If marketers can embrace this opportunity, they will not only help themselves in their quests to become the business leaders of tomorrow; they will also improve their organisations’ performance and contribute to the wider health of the UK economy.
The Saturday Economist Private Client GroupJohn Ashcroft
This is the brochure for The Saturday Economist Private Client Group. We continue to work with a number of clients in addition to the Saturday Economist and The Saturday Economist Live. Join our Private Client group. You will have access to all of the Premium Subscriber content plus our work on scenario modelling, digital accommodation, disruptive innovation and platforms for growth. You will have access to personalized on line updates and our "Lunch at The Lowry" events.
The Saturday Economist Bond Market SentinelJohn Ashcroft
This is the Bond Market Sentinel analysis available
to members of the Saturday Economist Club. We monitor ten year gilt and bond yields in the US and the UK together with a look along the yield curve.
For exchange rates check out our weekly exchange rate updates. For the outlook on copper and metals check out our weekly metals update.
The comments on markets should not be construed as the giving of investment advice. Markets do not always behave according to trend.
The Saturday Economist Monday Morning MarketsJohn Ashcroft
This is the Monday Morning Markets analysis available
to members of the Saturday Economist Club. We monitor ten markets across the world together with an update on commodity prices and bond yields.
For exchange rates check out our weekly exchange
rate updates. For the outlook on copper and metals
check out our weekly metals update.
The comments on markets should not be construed as the giving of investment advice. Markets do not always behave according to trend! JKA
This the Crypto Wallet Chart analysis available to members of the Saturday Economist Club. We monitor five cryptos including Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum, Litecoin and Dogecoin.
The comments on markets should not be construed as the giving of investment advice. We do not invest nor trade in crypto.
Markets do not always behave according to trend!
Dogecoin and the speculative bubble mapJohn Ashcroft
In May we warned of the comparison between the Dogecoin price chart and the speculative bubble map. This is the update with the July price footnote. Dogecoin is down in price by 70% since we first published the note. JKA
The Saturday Economist Empires of the Cloud Fund TrackerJohn Ashcroft
This is our Empires of the Cloud Fund Tracker. We model the fortunes of Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Facebook. Together that have a combined market cap of over $9 trillion dollars. $10,000 dollars invested in April 2016 wouuld be worth over $40,000 in 2021.
The Saturday Economist UK Forecast update june 2021John Ashcroft
This is the Saturday Economist Forecast Update for June 2021. Available with Quarterly Updates forr members of The Saturday Economist Club and Premium Subscribers.
The Saturday Economist Live Slide Deck June 2020 ppJohn Ashcroft
The Saturday Economist Live on Zoom. This is the data slide deck from our presentation on the 26th June. Sign up at the Saturday Economist dot com for news of future events.
The Saturday Economist Webinar May Slide SelectionJohn Ashcroft
This pack includes a selection of slides from The Saturday Economist Webinar for May, held on the 29th May 2020.
Videos of the presentation are available on Youtube and LinkedIn
The Saturday Economist Slide Pack April 2020John Ashcroft
The Saturday Economist, Quarterly Economics Presentation with Brabners LLP. The April Webinar was held on the 28th April using GoToWebinar with almost 300 in attendance. Our theme was Animal Crossing. JKA
Several years ago, a good friend of mine made the move to set up his own business. He asked me “What should I do to develop my social media profile?”
The Eight “Letters to a friend on Social Media" followed over the next few weeks and months. The basic guide to creating and nurturing a social media profile.
The themes were developed over many years of experience and at great expense. Here the letters are reproduced as a PDF. The eight letters pulled together in this short guide. Here are the first three!
1. Ten Things you must do now to set up your social media profile!
2. Fingerprints, footprints and photographs...laying a trail
3. Beacons, Cascades and R(0)s...how to improve the performance of your social media messaging...
Our Guide to Digital disruption Update 2019John Ashcroft
A collection of our articles on Digital Disruption and Change Management updated for 2019.
Don't thumb your nose at Digital Disruption
So what do we mean by digital disruption
The six forces shaping digital disruption
Digital Disruption Industries of the future
Which jobs will be at risk in the years ahead
Digital Disruption and the UK Banking System
Using our GDP(O) model we forecast growth of 1.5% in the U.K. this year. Here are the data sets and charts we use to develop the forecast. The Saturday Economist ... We don't just make up the numbers JKA
John Ashcroft's The Digital Marketing Guide to the Empires of the Cloud John Ashcroft
The Empires of the Cloud have a combined market capitalisation of almost $3 trillion dollars. Facebook has access to FIVE billion points of contact with internet users. Who are they? Check out the latest update from The Dimensions of Strategy Team! Don't Miss Out! JKA
The slides accompany the Yahoo Case Study 2016 and Teaching Notes available from the web site. The Yahoo Case Study Dot com. John Ashcroft Dimensions of Strategy
The Saturday Economist, UK Economic Outlook June 2016John Ashcroft
Growth in 2015 was 2.3% down from 2.9% in 2014. We now expect growth of 2.2% in 2016 … following the disappointing performance of manufacturing and construction in the first quarter.
The inflation outlook is still muted, with the fall in world oil, energy, food and commodity prices continuing to dominate headline inflation.
The UK economy grew by 2.0% in the first quarter, revisions to construction and manufacturing growth pulling total output lower. The service sector continues to drive growth.
In this June economics update we forecast world growth of 3.2% in 2016 up from 3.1% in 2015. UK Inflation will average just 0.3%, CPI basis, over the balance of the year 2016. Unemployment will continue to fall, government borrowing will also fall. The service sector will lead the recovery as manufacturing and construction output falls slightly.
We are forecasting a modest fall in manufacturing of around 0.2% in 2016 with a 0.9% fall in construction activity based on the latest data. The trade figures will continue to disappoint, offset by a further £2 billion oil dividend, despite a moderate oil price recovery. The challenge to the current account following the drop in overseas investment income continues and will present a significant problem to the outlook for sterling over the medium term.
Our forecast is based on a "remain" referendum outcome! .
The Saturday Economist Brexit Briefing, all the information needed to make an...John Ashcroft
The Saturday Economist on Brexit. All the information you need to make and informed decision. We analyse the arguments in to the business, economic, political and social. The political arguments relate to who governs Britain. The social argument largely dealing with immigration and implications for education, health care and welfare.
The economics case argues against Brexit, largely because of the uncertainty relating to the alternative options. Brexit will damage investment prospects in the short term (uncertainty) and in the long term (strategic). We consider that motor, aerospace and financial services industries are particularly at risk.
As for business ... there is no business case to support the "Brexit" argument. The level of uncertainty is too severe JKA
The Saturday Economist Brexit Briefing, all the information needed to make an...John Ashcroft
The Saturday Economist on Brexit. All the information you need to make and informed decision. We analyse the arguments in to the business, economic, political and social. The political arguments relate to who governs Britain. The social argument largely dealing with immigration and implications for education, health care and welfare.
The economics case argues against Brexit, largely because of the uncertainty relating to the alternative options. Brexit will damage investment prospects in the short term (uncertainty) and in the long term (strategic). We consider that motor, aerospace and financial services industries are particularly at risk.
As for business ... there is no business case to support the "Brexit" argument. The level of uncertainty is too severe JKA
The saturday economist uk economic outlook march 2016John Ashcroft
The Saturday Economist : UK Economic Outlook March 2016, Drink with me to days gone by : Service Sector (Leisure Sector) continues to drive output in the UK economy, We expect GDP growth of 2.6% this year slowing to 2.5% in 2017.
Modelling Investment - Forecasts for the UK Economy 2016John Ashcroft
Modelling Investment - Forecasts for the UK Economy 2016. Published in association with the December Economic Outlook, we outline our sectoral forecasts of investment in the UK
Removing Uninteresting Bytes in Software FuzzingAftab Hussain
Imagine a world where software fuzzing, the process of mutating bytes in test seeds to uncover hidden and erroneous program behaviors, becomes faster and more effective. A lot depends on the initial seeds, which can significantly dictate the trajectory of a fuzzing campaign, particularly in terms of how long it takes to uncover interesting behaviour in your code. We introduce DIAR, a technique designed to speedup fuzzing campaigns by pinpointing and eliminating those uninteresting bytes in the seeds. Picture this: instead of wasting valuable resources on meaningless mutations in large, bloated seeds, DIAR removes the unnecessary bytes, streamlining the entire process.
In this work, we equipped AFL, a popular fuzzer, with DIAR and examined two critical Linux libraries -- Libxml's xmllint, a tool for parsing xml documents, and Binutil's readelf, an essential debugging and security analysis command-line tool used to display detailed information about ELF (Executable and Linkable Format). Our preliminary results show that AFL+DIAR does not only discover new paths more quickly but also achieves higher coverage overall. This work thus showcases how starting with lean and optimized seeds can lead to faster, more comprehensive fuzzing campaigns -- and DIAR helps you find such seeds.
- These are slides of the talk given at IEEE International Conference on Software Testing Verification and Validation Workshop, ICSTW 2022.
LF Energy Webinar: Electrical Grid Modelling and Simulation Through PowSyBl -...DanBrown980551
Do you want to learn how to model and simulate an electrical network from scratch in under an hour?
Then welcome to this PowSyBl workshop, hosted by Rte, the French Transmission System Operator (TSO)!
During the webinar, you will discover the PowSyBl ecosystem as well as handle and study an electrical network through an interactive Python notebook.
PowSyBl is an open source project hosted by LF Energy, which offers a comprehensive set of features for electrical grid modelling and simulation. Among other advanced features, PowSyBl provides:
- A fully editable and extendable library for grid component modelling;
- Visualization tools to display your network;
- Grid simulation tools, such as power flows, security analyses (with or without remedial actions) and sensitivity analyses;
The framework is mostly written in Java, with a Python binding so that Python developers can access PowSyBl functionalities as well.
What you will learn during the webinar:
- For beginners: discover PowSyBl's functionalities through a quick general presentation and the notebook, without needing any expert coding skills;
- For advanced developers: master the skills to efficiently apply PowSyBl functionalities to your real-world scenarios.
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 4DianaGray10
Welcome to UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series part 4. In this session, we will cover Test Manager overview along with SAP heatmap.
The UiPath Test Manager overview with SAP heatmap webinar offers a concise yet comprehensive exploration of the role of a Test Manager within SAP environments, coupled with the utilization of heatmaps for effective testing strategies.
Participants will gain insights into the responsibilities, challenges, and best practices associated with test management in SAP projects. Additionally, the webinar delves into the significance of heatmaps as a visual aid for identifying testing priorities, areas of risk, and resource allocation within SAP landscapes. Through this session, attendees can expect to enhance their understanding of test management principles while learning practical approaches to optimize testing processes in SAP environments using heatmap visualization techniques
What will you get from this session?
1. Insights into SAP testing best practices
2. Heatmap utilization for testing
3. Optimization of testing processes
4. Demo
Topics covered:
Execution from the test manager
Orchestrator execution result
Defect reporting
SAP heatmap example with demo
Speaker:
Deepak Rai, Automation Practice Lead, Boundaryless Group and UiPath MVP
PHP Frameworks: I want to break free (IPC Berlin 2024)Ralf Eggert
In this presentation, we examine the challenges and limitations of relying too heavily on PHP frameworks in web development. We discuss the history of PHP and its frameworks to understand how this dependence has evolved. The focus will be on providing concrete tips and strategies to reduce reliance on these frameworks, based on real-world examples and practical considerations. The goal is to equip developers with the skills and knowledge to create more flexible and future-proof web applications. We'll explore the importance of maintaining autonomy in a rapidly changing tech landscape and how to make informed decisions in PHP development.
This talk is aimed at encouraging a more independent approach to using PHP frameworks, moving towards a more flexible and future-proof approach to PHP development.
A tale of scale & speed: How the US Navy is enabling software delivery from l...sonjaschweigert1
Rapid and secure feature delivery is a goal across every application team and every branch of the DoD. The Navy’s DevSecOps platform, Party Barge, has achieved:
- Reduction in onboarding time from 5 weeks to 1 day
- Improved developer experience and productivity through actionable findings and reduction of false positives
- Maintenance of superior security standards and inherent policy enforcement with Authorization to Operate (ATO)
Development teams can ship efficiently and ensure applications are cyber ready for Navy Authorizing Officials (AOs). In this webinar, Sigma Defense and Anchore will give attendees a look behind the scenes and demo secure pipeline automation and security artifacts that speed up application ATO and time to production.
We will cover:
- How to remove silos in DevSecOps
- How to build efficient development pipeline roles and component templates
- How to deliver security artifacts that matter for ATO’s (SBOMs, vulnerability reports, and policy evidence)
- How to streamline operations with automated policy checks on container images
GridMate - End to end testing is a critical piece to ensure quality and avoid...ThomasParaiso2
End to end testing is a critical piece to ensure quality and avoid regressions. In this session, we share our journey building an E2E testing pipeline for GridMate components (LWC and Aura) using Cypress, JSForce, FakerJS…
SAP Sapphire 2024 - ASUG301 building better apps with SAP Fiori.pdfPeter Spielvogel
Building better applications for business users with SAP Fiori.
• What is SAP Fiori and why it matters to you
• How a better user experience drives measurable business benefits
• How to get started with SAP Fiori today
• How SAP Fiori elements accelerates application development
• How SAP Build Code includes SAP Fiori tools and other generative artificial intelligence capabilities
• How SAP Fiori paves the way for using AI in SAP apps
Climate Impact of Software Testing at Nordic Testing DaysKari Kakkonen
My slides at Nordic Testing Days 6.6.2024
Climate impact / sustainability of software testing discussed on the talk. ICT and testing must carry their part of global responsibility to help with the climat warming. We can minimize the carbon footprint but we can also have a carbon handprint, a positive impact on the climate. Quality characteristics can be added with sustainability, and then measured continuously. Test environments can be used less, and in smaller scale and on demand. Test techniques can be used in optimizing or minimizing number of tests. Test automation can be used to speed up testing.
Observability Concepts EVERY Developer Should Know -- DeveloperWeek Europe.pdfPaige Cruz
Monitoring and observability aren’t traditionally found in software curriculums and many of us cobble this knowledge together from whatever vendor or ecosystem we were first introduced to and whatever is a part of your current company’s observability stack.
While the dev and ops silo continues to crumble….many organizations still relegate monitoring & observability as the purview of ops, infra and SRE teams. This is a mistake - achieving a highly observable system requires collaboration up and down the stack.
I, a former op, would like to extend an invitation to all application developers to join the observability party will share these foundational concepts to build on:
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 5DianaGray10
Welcome to UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series part 5. In this session, we will cover CI/CD with devops.
Topics covered:
CI/CD with in UiPath
End-to-end overview of CI/CD pipeline with Azure devops
Speaker:
Lyndsey Byblow, Test Suite Sales Engineer @ UiPath, Inc.
State of ICS and IoT Cyber Threat Landscape Report 2024 previewPrayukth K V
The IoT and OT threat landscape report has been prepared by the Threat Research Team at Sectrio using data from Sectrio, cyber threat intelligence farming facilities spread across over 85 cities around the world. In addition, Sectrio also runs AI-based advanced threat and payload engagement facilities that serve as sinks to attract and engage sophisticated threat actors, and newer malware including new variants and latent threats that are at an earlier stage of development.
The latest edition of the OT/ICS and IoT security Threat Landscape Report 2024 also covers:
State of global ICS asset and network exposure
Sectoral targets and attacks as well as the cost of ransom
Global APT activity, AI usage, actor and tactic profiles, and implications
Rise in volumes of AI-powered cyberattacks
Major cyber events in 2024
Malware and malicious payload trends
Cyberattack types and targets
Vulnerability exploit attempts on CVEs
Attacks on counties – USA
Expansion of bot farms – how, where, and why
In-depth analysis of the cyber threat landscape across North America, South America, Europe, APAC, and the Middle East
Why are attacks on smart factories rising?
Cyber risk predictions
Axis of attacks – Europe
Systemic attacks in the Middle East
Download the full report from here:
https://sectrio.com/resources/ot-threat-landscape-reports/sectrio-releases-ot-ics-and-iot-security-threat-landscape-report-2024/
Elizabeth Buie - Older adults: Are we really designing for our future selves?
The saturday economist 23rd june
1. The Saturday Economist johnashcroft.co.uk
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In this issue : Page No. Saturday June 23rd 2012
Forward on:
The week in review 2
Retail Price Inflation - May 3
Unemployment data - April .May 4
Retail Sales - May 5
MPC Minutes 6
Retweet this Oil Price Watch 7
John Ashcroft The Saturday
Latest Economic Indicators 8 Economist is Chief Executive of
pro.manchester, a director of
Marketing Manchester, a member
of the Greater Manchester
Chamber of Commerce, the
AGMA Business Leadership
miss Council and a visiting professor at
’t MMU Business School
Don specialising in Economics,
Corporate Strategy and Business
Modelling.
Education : London School of
Economics London Business
John Ashcroft.co.uk School with a PhD in economics
from MMU.
Saturday, 23 June 12
2. The Saturday Economist johnashcroft.co.uk
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Saturday June 23rd 2012
The Week in Review - inflation falls, unemployment sends mixed
signals and retail sales rally in May. The MPC minutes suggest
more QE is on the way.
Good news on inflation as the headline rate CPI fell to 2.8% in May down from 3.1% in
April. In other measures the RPI and RPIX also fell to 3.1% from 3.5%.
World trade is slowing with some respite to manufacturing and commodity prices. Oil
prices Brent Crude basis in dollar terms fell by 9% in the month down by 5% year on
year, this helped UK inflation. Brent Crude closed at $95 per barrel at the end of this
week pushing prices lower - one would expect.
Unemployment sends mixed messages as the claimant count increased slightly in May
by 8,100 but the wider LFS count for the three months to April suggested Inflation CPI basis fell to 2.8% in May
unemployment fell. Confusing - well a little but the figures are consistent with an
economy stalling with no evident growth. Our forecasts for unemployment are little
changed on the year.
Retail sales rallied in May with volumes up by 2.4% and values increased by 3.3%.
Internet sales surged by almost 22%. On line food sales were up by 34%.
The minutes of the monetary policy committee in June were released this month. Base
rates were on hold but more QE was narrowly avoided with a 5-4 vote against. Martin
Weale won’t hold out for long, more QE may follow in July.
Rates are on hold but more QE is on the way
John Ashcroft.co.uk Page 2
Saturday, 23 June 12
3. The Saturday Economist johnashcroft.co.uk
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Saturday June 23rd 2012
Retail Price Inflation - May
Inflation CPI basis slowed to 2.8% in May down from 3% in April. The
largest downward pressures to the change in CPI annual inflation
between April and May came from motor fuels and food & non-alcoholic
beverages.
The rate of RPI and RPIX inflation fell to 3.1% from 3.5%, The largest
downward pressures to the change in RPI annual inflation between April
and May came from petrol & oil and food.
World trade is slowing with some respite to manufacturing and commodity
prices. Oil prices Brent Crude basis in dollar terms fell by 9% in the month Inflation CPI basis fell to 2.8% in May
down by 5% year on year.
For the Bank of England and the MPC the figures represent good news in
pursuit of the inflation target. Inflation is likely to fall towards the 2% level
in the final quarter of the year. For those more fearful of deflation, the
news casts more long shadows and black clouds over Threadneedle
Street.
RPI inflation fell to 3.1%.
John Ashcroft.co.uk Page 3
Saturday, 23 June 12
4. The Saturday Economist johnashcroft.co.uk
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Unemployment data for April and May Saturday June 23rd 2012
Unemployment defined as the number of people claiming Jobseekers’ Allowance,
increased by 8,100 in May to 1,599.3 thousand from a revised 1,591.2 thousand in
April. The claimant count rate of unemployment was unchanged at 4.9%.
According to the wider LFS definition, unemployment actually fell. In the three
months to April, there were 2.61 million unemployed, down 51,000 on the quarter.
The unemployment rate was 8.2% down by 0.2%.
By the end of March, there were 31.9 million workforce jobs compared to 31.3
million one year ago. There were 29.3 million people in public and private sector
employment compared to 29.2 million last year. Private sector gains of 320,000
were offsetting the loss of 278,000 public sector jobs. Within the private sector, self
employment has increased by almost 200,000 in the twelve months. Claimant Count increased slightly in May
What does it all mean? Well using the claimant count figures as the best guide to
overall levels of activity, the economy is stalling. Unemployment in the first five
months of the year has increased but by just over 3,000. Jobs are being lost in the
public sector and gains in the private sector are being supported by a big rise in
DIY self employment. The pattern is consistent with an economy that is stalling.
Average Earnings in April were 1.8% compared to 2% in April last year. Earnings
may not be rising but inflation is falling. We expect earnings to rise to 2% by the
end of the year but this may still leave real earnings adjusted for inflation under
pressure.
The economy is stalling but no severe slow down
John Ashcroft.co.uk Page 4
Saturday, 23 June 12
5. The Saturday Economist johnashcroft.co.uk
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Saturday June 23rd 2012
Retail Sales - May
Retail sales volumes in May 2012 are estimated to have increased by 2.4 per cent
compared with May 2011 and retail sales values in May increased by 3.3 per cent.
Excluding sales of automotive fuel, sales volumes increased by 3%, household
goods sales in the month increased by 5%.
The total amount spent in the retail sector in May is estimated at £26.4 billion, non-
seasonally adjusted, up from £26.0 billion in April 2012 and £25.6 billion in May
2011.
The average weekly value for Internet sales is estimated at £510.9 million and
increase of 21.6%. The proportion of retail sales made via the Internet now stands
at 8.8 per cent. Food sales on line increased by 34%. Retail Sales up by 2.4% in May
What does this all mean? Well compared to the long run average - retail sales are
well below the trend rate of growth of 3.4%. In the first quarter of the year, retail
sales volumes increased by 1.6% and in the second quarter will be around 1.5% at
best.
For the rest of the year, volumes may well increase as inflation falls, petrol prices
ease and earnings rally slightly.
Our forecast for the full year retail sales volume growth is up slightly to 1.5%.
Our forecast for the full year just 1.5%
John Ashcroft.co.uk Page 5
Saturday, 23 June 12
6. The Saturday Economist johnashcroft.co.uk
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Saturday June 23rd 2012
Minutes of the MPC meeting
The minutes of the MPC June meeting were released today. The Committee voted
to keep rates on hold but more water on the drowning seems likely with another
dose of QE on the way as early as next month. It was a near run thing in June as
the minutes reveal :
Proposal : The Bank of England should maintain the stock of asset purchases at
£325 billion. Five members of the Committee (Charles Bean, Paul Tucker, Ben
Broadbent, Spencer Dale and Martin Weale) voted in favour of the proposition.
Four members of the Committee voted against the proposition. The Governor,
David Miles and Adam Posen preferred to increase the size of the asset purchase
programme by £50 billion to a total of £375 billion. Paul Fisher preferred to
increase the size of the asset purchase programme by £25 billion to a total of £350 Minutes of the MPC meeting rates on hold
billion.
Martin Weale is unlikely to hold out for long. July could see more QE. Can anyone
explain what this policy on Planet ZIRP really achieves? Not if you read This
Discussion Paper from the Saturday Economist. What’s wrong with QE and the
Asset Purchase Facility.
But the push for more QE is a narrow thing
John Ashcroft.co.uk Page 6
Saturday, 23 June 12
7. The Saturday Economist johnashcroft.co.uk
Oil Price Watch ......
150 Saturday June 23rd 2012
Oil brent crude closed at $95.15
last week
120
90
Oil Price Brent Crude $ Qtr Data
$ I II III IV
60
2010 76.35 78.37 77.49 87.28
2011 104.79 116.57 113.57 109.16
30
2012 118.83 109.00 110.00 115.00
Forecasts
0 Our forecasts more bullish
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 than the World Bank $107
this year.
John Ashcroft.co.uk Page 7
Saturday, 23 June 12
8. The Saturday Economist johnashcroft.co.uk
Log In | Register | My Account | iPad App |
Latest Economic Indicators Saturday June 23rd 2012
Indicator Period Latest Notes, next release Source
Inflation CPI May 2.8% ONS
Inflation RPI May 3.1% .. ONS
Inflation RPIX May 3.1% .. ONS
Earnings April 1.8% ONS
Retail Sales volume May 2.0% ONS
Retail Sales value May 3.3% ONS
Unemployment April 2.62 LFS Million trailing 3 months ONS
Unemployment % April 8.2% LFS trailing 3 month ONS
Claimant count May 1.59m Million ONS
PPIs output May 2.8% Manufacturing prices (output) ONS
PPIs input May 0.1% Manufacturing prices ( input) ONS
GDP growth Q1 2012 -0.3% ONS
Manufacturing April -0.9% year on year growth ONS
ONS : Office for National Statistics, LFS : Labour Force Survey
John Ashcroft.co.uk Page 8
Saturday, 23 June 12
9. The Saturday Economist johnashcroft.co.uk
The Saturday Economist
The Saturday Economist is a round up of the week’s economics news for the UK June
published on the web site johnashcroft.co.uk. The information is also available as
a PDF download.
The information was originally published in short form in the Sunday Times and
Croissants weekly blog post and has been expanded following requests for more
information. To receive the weekly STAC e-mail join me on LinkedIn.
Details of our current annual
The material in the Saturday Economist is based upon information which we
forecasts : The UK in Black and
consider to be reliable but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and
White Forecasts for the UK
it should not be relied upon as such. We accept no liability for errors, or omissions
Economy 2012 - 2015 can be
of opinion or fact.
found on this web site and on
slideshare - jkaonline
In particular, no reliance should be placed on the comments or trends in financial
markets. The publication of this document should not be construed as the giving
All views expressed in the Saturday Economist
of investment advice. are my own. Information is intended to provide a
general outline of the subjects covered. It
should neither be regarded as comprehensive
Forecasting is fun and subject to frequent revision. nor sufficient for making decisions, nor should it
be used in place of professional advice. Neither
the Saturday Economist or any representative
John Ashcroft accept any responsibility for any loss arising
Data is adapted from the Office for National Statistics licensed under the Open Government Licence v.1.0. from any action taken or not taken by anyone
using this material.
John Ashcroft.co.uk Page 12
Saturday, 23 June 12