Paul Suffern, meteorologist investigator at the NTSB gave a great presentation to the club.

1. 1
The NTSB and Forensic
Meteorology
Paul Suffern
NTSB Meteorologist

2. 2
• Overview of the NTSB
• NTSB weather accident statistics
• Weather related accident cases

3. 3
Office of Aviation Safety
AS-1
Office of Aviation
Safety
AS-10
Major
Investigations
AS-20
Regional Ops &
General Aviation
AS-30
Operational
Factors
AS-40
Aviation
Engineering
AS-50
Human
Performance
AS-60
Survival
Factors
AS-70
Writing and
Editing
ATC Meteorology Operations
Don Eick
Michael Richards
Paul Suffern

4. 4
The NTSB Investigative Process
On duty MET
Fatal or non-fatal airplane accidents
we get an email, call, text…etcSometimes incidents
too

5. 5
The NTSB Investigative Process
Brief review of
accident details so
far (10 minutes to
an hour)
Call and coordinate plan with
supervisor and Investigator in Charge
(IIC)

6. 6
The NTSB Investigative Process
Call and coordinate with other
investigators such as ATC,
Operations, etc…
Call NWS Forensics
Manager

7. 7
Accident Scene

8. 8
On Scene Investigation Portion
• Gather all factual evidence
• Provide an out briefing to facility
• Plans for follow up on factual data

9. 9
NTSB reviews all weather products and
material available
• All National Weather Service products
• Private company products
• Briefings
• Observations
• Satellite and radar
• Weather computer
modeling
• Dual pol radar data
• Any new technologies,
products, or procedures

10. 10
Where are NTSB wx products
available?
Probable cause issued and report
released

11. 11
NTSB Accident Statistics
• 4,958 accidents
• 1,641 fatalities
• Weather was
cited as a cause
or factor in over
30% of these
accidents

12. 12
Part 91 Weather Related Accidents
2007-2009

13. 13
Weather Related Accidents
Weather related accidents have one of
the highest fatality rates!

14. 14
Unfavorable Winds & High Density Altitude
LAX07FA258
Quartering crosswind & tailwind

15. 15
Fatal 2
Serious 2
LAX07FA258
Cameron Park, CA
Aug 30, 2007

16. 16
Preflight Planning
NTSB study 41% of the weather related
accidents the pilot did not obtain or
received an adequate weather briefing

17. 17
“I looked at the destination forecast and it
indicated VFR conditions?”
Departure Destination
• What about the en route conditions?
• When was the forecast issued?
• Any adverse weather predicted?
• What’s in the surrounding area?

18. 18
ERA13FA088
Piper PA-28-160 N5714W
Parkton, North Carolina
December 2012 • IFR flight plan
• Part 91 personal flight
• Summerville, SC to
Fayetteville, NC
• Declined receiving a voice
official wx briefing
• 1-Fatal
METAR KFAY 161953Z AUTO 22004KT 7SM OVC005
14/13 A2999 RMK AO2 CIG 004V007 SLP151
T01440133=

19. 19
Accident site
Accident site
KFAY
KCPC
Accident site
ATC flight track
Location at 1527 EST
ATC flight track
Image facing northwest
Rain showers

20. 20
ERA12LA500
Beech V35B
Effingham, South Carolina
Summer 2012 • IFR flight plan
• Part 91 personal flight
• Northern Virginia to Florida
• Received an official wx
briefings
• 2-Injuries
KFLO 111730Z 22008G25KT 1 3/4SM +RA BR FEW033
BKN049 22/20 A2997 RMK AO2 PK WND 26033/1714
RAB14 P0008=

21. 21
Accident site

22. 22

23. 23
ERA12LA500

24. 24
ERA12LA231
Firefly 8 Hot-Air-Balloon
Fitzgerald, Georgia
Spring 2012 • VFR flight plan
• Part 91 flight
• Southern Georgia
• Received no official wx
briefings
• 1-fatal
KAMG 162337Z AUTO 14003KT 7SM VCTS -RA
OVC100 21/18 A3015 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT W AND NW
TSB31RAB30 P0000=

25. 25
ERA12LA231

26. 26
ERA12LA231

27. 27
Importance of Clear Communication
• What pilots/ATC/wx person see are all
different pictures of the same weather
conditions

28. 28
Current NTSB Products
• Numerous safety recommendations
and safety alerts
– Hazardous weather encounters
– Pilot in-cockpit Nexrad latency
– Mastering Mountain Flying:
http://www.ntsb.gov/safety/safety-
alerts/Documents/SA_039.pdf
• Consistency between non-aviation and aviation
products
• Primary aviation product for mountain wave activity
• Establish standardized guidance for PIREPs
• Weather camera recommendations for Hawaii

29. 29
Any Questions?
Main website: http://www.ntsb.gov
My email: paul.suffern@ntsb.gov

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