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The New Industry Paradigm: Industry Specialist
Private Equity Investors as Drivers in the Mining Sector
SME’s Third Annual Mining Finance Conference
New York City
Joel Schneyer – Managing Director
April 28, 2015
Difficult Investment Landscape for Miners
Source: Modified from NovaGold - Presentation at San Francisco Gold Conference, November 2013
South America
1.Peru: Construction halted at largest mine due to
gov’t review and social unrest.
2.Ecuador: Political obstacles and windfall tax
discourage foreign investment in mining.
3.Venezuela: Five mining companies seeking
compensation through World Bank’s arbitration
court following nationalizations.
4.Bolivia: Nationalization of various natural resources
assets.
5.Argentina: Miners required to repatriate revenues
from foreign sales, limitations imposed on foreign
exchange. Controls on imports of
equipment/supplies have also been tightened
Africa
•Ghana: Increase in tariffs on mines and introduced a
windfall tax, halting project expansions.
•Guinea: New law gives government a 35% stake;
threat of nationalization.
•Mali: Recent military coup creating political
uncertainty
•Kenya: Rising mineral royalties and drilling fees for
mining.
•Congo: Plans to revise mining code, raise taxes and
increase stake in mining projects
•Zimbabwe: Gov’t plans to seize control of foreign-
owned mines.
•South Africa: Ongoing dialogue to nationalize mining
industry.
Russia, Asia & Australia
13.Indonesia: Newly proposed legislation
limits foreign ownership of mines to 49%.
14.Philippines: New royalties and taxes being
imposed on mining companies.
15.Mongolia: Drafting investment law to
restrict foreign ownership.
16.Kyrgyzstan: Parliamentary motion calling
for increased government stake in one of its
largest mines
Heightened Geopolitical/Permitting Risk in North America
2
BC: Mt Polly tailings
dam spill
Quebec: Innu
First Nations
launch $900M
lawsuit against
Rio Tinto
BC: First
Nations
Supreme Court
Ruling
MEX: Torex
kidnappings
Aust: BHP & Rio Tinto
iron ore tax avoidance
investigation
Greece: Revokes
Skouries mine
development
license
Zambia:
Planned royalty
hike to 9%
Access To Public Capital Decreasing – Exploration Decreasing
3
Source:
Toronto Stock Exchange and TSX Venture Exchange
Total Financing (C$ Billions)
Source:
Global Exploration Budget Trends ($ Millions)
Disconnect Between Gold Miner ETFs and Broader Market
4
Source: Yahoo Finance
Why Buy An Illiquid Share When You Can Buy An ETF?
5
Source: Yahoo Finance
Source: Headwaters Research
Industry Experiencing Mining Cost Inflation – N American Example
6
$/oz
$535/oz
Margins Under Pressure
7
Source: Metals Focus
8
Development Stage Gold Companies trade at an Enterprise Value of $12 per ounce of M, I, & I
(NI 43-101) with average estimated project development costs of $91 per ounce
*EV = (share price x # shares) – current assets + total liabilities
**4/18/2015 share prices Au=$1203.35/oz, Ag=$16.23/oz
The Development Stage Business Model Looks To Be Unsustainable
9
Once the Project enters the Development Investment Analysis Phase (PEA – Prefeasibility – Feasibility),
companies see a long period of share price erosion as studies, permitting and de-risking drag on
Life Cycle of a Gold Mining Share
10
Actual Trading Market Multiples
 Small Gold Producers $51/oz Resource
 Intermediate Gold Producers $64/oz Resource
 Large Gold Producers $117/oz Resource
So What Is the Problem?
Development Stage Gold Companies Trade on Average at $12/oz Resource
Costs to Complete Drilling, Feasibility & Permitting ~$10/oz Resource
Capital Development Costs $91/oz Resource
Owners Costs Not in Feasibility (25%) $23/oz Resource
Total $136/oz Resource
11
The Institutional Money has lost confidence that…
 costs can be controlled
 capital discipline will occur
 restructurings can deliver on promises
 returns on capital employed will improve
 the industry won’t pile back into too many new projects or expensive deals
when prices rebound
 resource nationalism will not overwhelm the industry
 commodity prices will not collapse
 “stuckholders” have an exit
… and the markets reflect this loss of confidence
Institutional Money Is Not Buying Any More Lottery Tickets
PE Investment Criteria
 Project in the lowest quartile of
cost curve
 Favorable technical review
 Board representation or control
 Permitting timeline
 Aligned financial interests
 Singular execution focus
 Exit strategy
12
Company
Project
Retail
Sovereign Wealth
InstitutionalMoney
Private Equity
Streaming & Royalty
Strategics
Merchant Traders
Mutual Funds
Major Shift In How Institutional Money Invests In Sector
1. Commodity
2. Location
5. Technical &
Legal Review
7. Execution and/or
Completion Risk
Private Equity – Key Considerations
13
8. Size of Investment
4. Control & Board
Representation
3. Quality & Focus of
Management Team
6. Project
Competitiveness
9. Hold Period &
Exit
+ 20% Annualized Returns
6 to 10 year timeframe
SNL Mine Economics Cost Curve
14
Source:
Iron Ore Cost Curve
25% - $35/dmt
50% - $39/dmt
Copper Cost Curve
25% - $1.25/lb
50% - $1.60/lb
Permitting Times Are Increasing – The Donlin Gold Example
Source: NovaGold 2nd
Q & Project Update Presentation, July 2014
15
1.5Moz/year
First five full years 1
1.1Moz/year
life of mine1
WE ARE HERE
Number of Mining Companies by Stage of Project Development - 2013
16
Adapted from:
Increasing Private Equity
Interest and activity
Prefeasibility Feasibility ProductionResource
PEA
Exploration
1149
Production
188
Advanced
Exploration
866
The Headwaters Difference
17
 Global reach (30 countries, 50 offices)
 Full product/service offering
 #1 investment bank for private wealth in the US
 Advocacy – unapologetic and conflict free
 Award-winning client advice
 Deep pool of transaction experience (over $265 billion)
 National footprint (8 offices)
 Focused industry coverage (specialists, not generalists)
 Advocacy – unapologetic and conflict free
 Long history of success
 Teamwork unrivalled in the industry
Capabilities • Culture • Advocacy • Results

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The New Industry Paradigm: Industry Specialist Private Equity Investors as Drivers in the Mining Sector

  • 1. The New Industry Paradigm: Industry Specialist Private Equity Investors as Drivers in the Mining Sector SME’s Third Annual Mining Finance Conference New York City Joel Schneyer – Managing Director April 28, 2015
  • 2. Difficult Investment Landscape for Miners Source: Modified from NovaGold - Presentation at San Francisco Gold Conference, November 2013 South America 1.Peru: Construction halted at largest mine due to gov’t review and social unrest. 2.Ecuador: Political obstacles and windfall tax discourage foreign investment in mining. 3.Venezuela: Five mining companies seeking compensation through World Bank’s arbitration court following nationalizations. 4.Bolivia: Nationalization of various natural resources assets. 5.Argentina: Miners required to repatriate revenues from foreign sales, limitations imposed on foreign exchange. Controls on imports of equipment/supplies have also been tightened Africa •Ghana: Increase in tariffs on mines and introduced a windfall tax, halting project expansions. •Guinea: New law gives government a 35% stake; threat of nationalization. •Mali: Recent military coup creating political uncertainty •Kenya: Rising mineral royalties and drilling fees for mining. •Congo: Plans to revise mining code, raise taxes and increase stake in mining projects •Zimbabwe: Gov’t plans to seize control of foreign- owned mines. •South Africa: Ongoing dialogue to nationalize mining industry. Russia, Asia & Australia 13.Indonesia: Newly proposed legislation limits foreign ownership of mines to 49%. 14.Philippines: New royalties and taxes being imposed on mining companies. 15.Mongolia: Drafting investment law to restrict foreign ownership. 16.Kyrgyzstan: Parliamentary motion calling for increased government stake in one of its largest mines Heightened Geopolitical/Permitting Risk in North America 2 BC: Mt Polly tailings dam spill Quebec: Innu First Nations launch $900M lawsuit against Rio Tinto BC: First Nations Supreme Court Ruling MEX: Torex kidnappings Aust: BHP & Rio Tinto iron ore tax avoidance investigation Greece: Revokes Skouries mine development license Zambia: Planned royalty hike to 9%
  • 3. Access To Public Capital Decreasing – Exploration Decreasing 3 Source: Toronto Stock Exchange and TSX Venture Exchange Total Financing (C$ Billions) Source: Global Exploration Budget Trends ($ Millions)
  • 4. Disconnect Between Gold Miner ETFs and Broader Market 4 Source: Yahoo Finance
  • 5. Why Buy An Illiquid Share When You Can Buy An ETF? 5 Source: Yahoo Finance
  • 6. Source: Headwaters Research Industry Experiencing Mining Cost Inflation – N American Example 6
  • 8. 8 Development Stage Gold Companies trade at an Enterprise Value of $12 per ounce of M, I, & I (NI 43-101) with average estimated project development costs of $91 per ounce *EV = (share price x # shares) – current assets + total liabilities **4/18/2015 share prices Au=$1203.35/oz, Ag=$16.23/oz The Development Stage Business Model Looks To Be Unsustainable
  • 9. 9 Once the Project enters the Development Investment Analysis Phase (PEA – Prefeasibility – Feasibility), companies see a long period of share price erosion as studies, permitting and de-risking drag on Life Cycle of a Gold Mining Share
  • 10. 10 Actual Trading Market Multiples  Small Gold Producers $51/oz Resource  Intermediate Gold Producers $64/oz Resource  Large Gold Producers $117/oz Resource So What Is the Problem? Development Stage Gold Companies Trade on Average at $12/oz Resource Costs to Complete Drilling, Feasibility & Permitting ~$10/oz Resource Capital Development Costs $91/oz Resource Owners Costs Not in Feasibility (25%) $23/oz Resource Total $136/oz Resource
  • 11. 11 The Institutional Money has lost confidence that…  costs can be controlled  capital discipline will occur  restructurings can deliver on promises  returns on capital employed will improve  the industry won’t pile back into too many new projects or expensive deals when prices rebound  resource nationalism will not overwhelm the industry  commodity prices will not collapse  “stuckholders” have an exit … and the markets reflect this loss of confidence Institutional Money Is Not Buying Any More Lottery Tickets
  • 12. PE Investment Criteria  Project in the lowest quartile of cost curve  Favorable technical review  Board representation or control  Permitting timeline  Aligned financial interests  Singular execution focus  Exit strategy 12 Company Project Retail Sovereign Wealth InstitutionalMoney Private Equity Streaming & Royalty Strategics Merchant Traders Mutual Funds Major Shift In How Institutional Money Invests In Sector
  • 13. 1. Commodity 2. Location 5. Technical & Legal Review 7. Execution and/or Completion Risk Private Equity – Key Considerations 13 8. Size of Investment 4. Control & Board Representation 3. Quality & Focus of Management Team 6. Project Competitiveness 9. Hold Period & Exit + 20% Annualized Returns 6 to 10 year timeframe
  • 14. SNL Mine Economics Cost Curve 14 Source: Iron Ore Cost Curve 25% - $35/dmt 50% - $39/dmt Copper Cost Curve 25% - $1.25/lb 50% - $1.60/lb
  • 15. Permitting Times Are Increasing – The Donlin Gold Example Source: NovaGold 2nd Q & Project Update Presentation, July 2014 15 1.5Moz/year First five full years 1 1.1Moz/year life of mine1 WE ARE HERE
  • 16. Number of Mining Companies by Stage of Project Development - 2013 16 Adapted from: Increasing Private Equity Interest and activity Prefeasibility Feasibility ProductionResource PEA Exploration 1149 Production 188 Advanced Exploration 866
  • 17. The Headwaters Difference 17  Global reach (30 countries, 50 offices)  Full product/service offering  #1 investment bank for private wealth in the US  Advocacy – unapologetic and conflict free  Award-winning client advice  Deep pool of transaction experience (over $265 billion)  National footprint (8 offices)  Focused industry coverage (specialists, not generalists)  Advocacy – unapologetic and conflict free  Long history of success  Teamwork unrivalled in the industry Capabilities • Culture • Advocacy • Results