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Development Stage Gold Companies Value Proposition Timeline
American Exploration & Mining Association 120th Annual Meeting
Reno, Nevada
Joel Schneyer – Managing Director
December 4th, 2014
Difficult Investment Landscape for Miners
2
Source: Novagold - Presentation San Francisco Gold Conference November 2013
Mexico: New 8% tax
on gold profits
South America
1. Peru: Construction halted at largest mine due to
gov’t review and social unrest.
2. Ecuador: Political obstacles and windfall tax
discourage foreign investment in mining.
3. Venezuela: Five mining companies seeking
compensation through World Bank’s arbitration
court following nationalizations.
4. Bolivia: Nationalization of various natural
resources assets.
5. Argentina: Miners required to repatriate
revenues from foreign sales, limitations imposed
on foreign exchange. Controls on imports of
equipment/supplies have also been tightened
Africa
6. Ghana: Increase in tariffs on mines and introduced
a windfall tax, halting project expansions.
7. Guinea: New law gives government a 35% stake;
threat of nationalization.
8. Mali: Recent military coup creating political
uncertainty
9. Kenya: Rising mineral royalties and drilling fees for
mining.
10. Congo: Plans to revise mining code, raise taxes and
increase stake in mining projects
11. Zimbabwe: Gov’t plans to seize control of foreign-
owned mines.
12. South Africa: Ongoing dialogue to nationalize
mining industry.
Russia, Asia & Australia
13. Indonesia: Newly proposed legislation
limits foreign ownership of mines to
49%.
14. Philippines: New royalties and taxes
being imposed on mining companies.
15. Mongolia: Drafting investment law to
restrict foreign ownership.
16. Australia: Government passed Mineral
Resources Rent Tax of 30%
17. Kyrgyzstan: Parliamentary motion
calling for increased government stake
in one of its largest mines
Recently Highlighted Regions/Countries with Heightened Geopolitical Risk
Disconnect Between Gold Miner Indexes and Broader Market
3
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2010 2011 2012 2013
Total Cash Total Production All-In Sustaining
$739$713$624
Source: Metals Focus
$548
$1,066 $1,045
$/oz
Mining Cost Inflation
4
Source: Metals Focus
$/oz
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
0 25 50 75 100
Cumulative Gold Production (%)
Total Cash Cost H1 14 Av. H1 14 Gold Price
Total Cash Cost H1 13 Av. H1 13 Gold Price
Industry Cash Cost Curve H1 2014
5
Source: Metals Focus
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
0 25 50 75 100
Cumulative Gold Production (%)
All-In Sustaining Cost H1 14 Av. H1 14 Gold Price
All-In Sustaining Cost H1 13 Av. H1 13 Gold Price
Industry All-In Sustainable Cost H1 14
6
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14
Total Cash Cost All-In Sustaining Cost Gold Price
$301/oz
$292/oz$312/oz $338/oz $321/oz
Source: Metals Focus
$/oz
$535/oz
Margins Under Pressure
7
8
The Institutional Money has lost confidence …
˗ that costs can be controlled
˗ that capital discipline will occur
˗ that restructurings can deliver on promises
˗ that returns on capital employed will improve
˗ that the industry won’t pile back into too many new projects or expensive deals when
prices rebound
˗ that resource nationalism will not overwhelm the industry
˗ that commodity prices will not collapse
˗ that “stuckholders” have an exit
… and the markets reflect this loss of confidence
Institutional Money Is Not Buying Public Gold Company Lottery Tickets
Why Buy An Illiquid Share When You Can Buy An ETF?
9
 No control – generally passive
 Upfront payment for metal –
generally passive, much more
important financing source
today
 Rise of PE as active investors and
generally absolute control
 May have board representation,
early toehold in projects
 The rise of state backed
investments (e.g. China and
Korea)
10
Company
Project
Retail
Sovereign Wealth
InstitutionalMoney
Private Equity
Streaming & Royalty
Strategics
Merchant Traders
Mutual Funds
Major Shift In How Institutional Money Invests In Sector
11
Development Stage Gold Companies trade at an Enterprise Value of $16 per ounce of M, I, & I
(NI 43-101) with average estimated project development costs of $91 per ounce
*EV = (share price x # shares) – current assets + total liabilities
**9/29/2014 share prices at close Au=$1219.50/oz, Ag=$17.58/oz
However The Development Stage Business Model Looks To Be Unsustainable
12
Once the Project enters the Development Investment Analysis Phase (PEA – Prefeasibility – Feasibility),
companies see a long period of share price erosion as studies, permitting and de-risking drag on
Life Cycle of a Gold Mining Share – Dec 2013 119th Annual Meeting
De-risking
&
13
Once the Project enters the Development Investment Analysis Phase (PEA – Prefeasibility – Feasibility),
companies see a long period of share price erosion as studies, permitting and de-risking drag on
Life Cycle of a Gold Mining Share – Dec 2014 120th Annual Meeting
14
Development Stage Gold Companies Trade on Average at $16/oz Resource
Costs to Complete Drilling, Feasibility & Permitting ~$10/oz Resource
Capital Development Costs $91/oz Resource
Owners Costs Not in Feasibility (25%) $23/oz Resource
Total $140/oz Resource
Actual Trading Market Multiples
• Small Gold Producers $71/oz Resource
• Intermediate Gold Producers $70/oz Resource
• Large Gold Producers $129/oz Resource
• Silver Producers $128/oz Resource
So What Is the Problem?
Focus On Sustainable Development And What You Can Control
 Mining investors are increasingly focused on investment returns.
Focus less on project IRR’s and more on Project rank on cost curve
Attractive Returns
& Economic
15
Staged Development
Low Political Risk
Available Workforce
 To minimize capital risk, design around an initial high grade starter pit with
scaled expansion & investigate the lower cap intensity heap leach option
 Conventional process circuit. Will take project thru “detailed engineering”
before seeking project finance
 Favorable jurisdiction with long established mining laws
 Host jurisdiction has available trained and or trainable work force, only
need modest number of expatriate supervisors
Permitting &
Social Issues
 Have local stakeholders (partners) with financial stake that are on
record supporting project and EIS process
Completion &
Overrun Risk
The Headwaters Difference
DEAL OF THE YEAR - TMT
INVESTMENT BANK
OF THE YEAR
INTERNATIONAL DEAL OF THE YEAR
PROFESSIONAL (B2B) SERVICES
INTERNATIONAL DEAL OF THE YEAR
CONSUMER SERVICES
INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT
BANK OF THE YEAR
16
 Advocacy – unapologetic and conflict free
 Award-winning client advice
 Deep pool of transaction experience (over $265 billion)
 National footprint (7 offices)
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 Focused industry coverage (specialists, not generalists)
 Full product/service offering
 #1 investment bank for private wealth in the US
 Proprietary capital: we can invest; unique access to family office capital
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 Teamwork unrivalled in the industry
Capabilities • Culture • Results

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Development Stage Gold Companies Value Proposition Timeline

  • 1. Development Stage Gold Companies Value Proposition Timeline American Exploration & Mining Association 120th Annual Meeting Reno, Nevada Joel Schneyer – Managing Director December 4th, 2014
  • 2. Difficult Investment Landscape for Miners 2 Source: Novagold - Presentation San Francisco Gold Conference November 2013 Mexico: New 8% tax on gold profits South America 1. Peru: Construction halted at largest mine due to gov’t review and social unrest. 2. Ecuador: Political obstacles and windfall tax discourage foreign investment in mining. 3. Venezuela: Five mining companies seeking compensation through World Bank’s arbitration court following nationalizations. 4. Bolivia: Nationalization of various natural resources assets. 5. Argentina: Miners required to repatriate revenues from foreign sales, limitations imposed on foreign exchange. Controls on imports of equipment/supplies have also been tightened Africa 6. Ghana: Increase in tariffs on mines and introduced a windfall tax, halting project expansions. 7. Guinea: New law gives government a 35% stake; threat of nationalization. 8. Mali: Recent military coup creating political uncertainty 9. Kenya: Rising mineral royalties and drilling fees for mining. 10. Congo: Plans to revise mining code, raise taxes and increase stake in mining projects 11. Zimbabwe: Gov’t plans to seize control of foreign- owned mines. 12. South Africa: Ongoing dialogue to nationalize mining industry. Russia, Asia & Australia 13. Indonesia: Newly proposed legislation limits foreign ownership of mines to 49%. 14. Philippines: New royalties and taxes being imposed on mining companies. 15. Mongolia: Drafting investment law to restrict foreign ownership. 16. Australia: Government passed Mineral Resources Rent Tax of 30% 17. Kyrgyzstan: Parliamentary motion calling for increased government stake in one of its largest mines Recently Highlighted Regions/Countries with Heightened Geopolitical Risk
  • 3. Disconnect Between Gold Miner Indexes and Broader Market 3
  • 4. 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total Cash Total Production All-In Sustaining $739$713$624 Source: Metals Focus $548 $1,066 $1,045 $/oz Mining Cost Inflation 4
  • 5. Source: Metals Focus $/oz -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 0 25 50 75 100 Cumulative Gold Production (%) Total Cash Cost H1 14 Av. H1 14 Gold Price Total Cash Cost H1 13 Av. H1 13 Gold Price Industry Cash Cost Curve H1 2014 5
  • 6. Source: Metals Focus -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 0 25 50 75 100 Cumulative Gold Production (%) All-In Sustaining Cost H1 14 Av. H1 14 Gold Price All-In Sustaining Cost H1 13 Av. H1 13 Gold Price Industry All-In Sustainable Cost H1 14 6
  • 7. 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Total Cash Cost All-In Sustaining Cost Gold Price $301/oz $292/oz$312/oz $338/oz $321/oz Source: Metals Focus $/oz $535/oz Margins Under Pressure 7
  • 8. 8 The Institutional Money has lost confidence … ˗ that costs can be controlled ˗ that capital discipline will occur ˗ that restructurings can deliver on promises ˗ that returns on capital employed will improve ˗ that the industry won’t pile back into too many new projects or expensive deals when prices rebound ˗ that resource nationalism will not overwhelm the industry ˗ that commodity prices will not collapse ˗ that “stuckholders” have an exit … and the markets reflect this loss of confidence Institutional Money Is Not Buying Public Gold Company Lottery Tickets
  • 9. Why Buy An Illiquid Share When You Can Buy An ETF? 9
  • 10.  No control – generally passive  Upfront payment for metal – generally passive, much more important financing source today  Rise of PE as active investors and generally absolute control  May have board representation, early toehold in projects  The rise of state backed investments (e.g. China and Korea) 10 Company Project Retail Sovereign Wealth InstitutionalMoney Private Equity Streaming & Royalty Strategics Merchant Traders Mutual Funds Major Shift In How Institutional Money Invests In Sector
  • 11. 11 Development Stage Gold Companies trade at an Enterprise Value of $16 per ounce of M, I, & I (NI 43-101) with average estimated project development costs of $91 per ounce *EV = (share price x # shares) – current assets + total liabilities **9/29/2014 share prices at close Au=$1219.50/oz, Ag=$17.58/oz However The Development Stage Business Model Looks To Be Unsustainable
  • 12. 12 Once the Project enters the Development Investment Analysis Phase (PEA – Prefeasibility – Feasibility), companies see a long period of share price erosion as studies, permitting and de-risking drag on Life Cycle of a Gold Mining Share – Dec 2013 119th Annual Meeting De-risking &
  • 13. 13 Once the Project enters the Development Investment Analysis Phase (PEA – Prefeasibility – Feasibility), companies see a long period of share price erosion as studies, permitting and de-risking drag on Life Cycle of a Gold Mining Share – Dec 2014 120th Annual Meeting
  • 14. 14 Development Stage Gold Companies Trade on Average at $16/oz Resource Costs to Complete Drilling, Feasibility & Permitting ~$10/oz Resource Capital Development Costs $91/oz Resource Owners Costs Not in Feasibility (25%) $23/oz Resource Total $140/oz Resource Actual Trading Market Multiples • Small Gold Producers $71/oz Resource • Intermediate Gold Producers $70/oz Resource • Large Gold Producers $129/oz Resource • Silver Producers $128/oz Resource So What Is the Problem?
  • 15. Focus On Sustainable Development And What You Can Control  Mining investors are increasingly focused on investment returns. Focus less on project IRR’s and more on Project rank on cost curve Attractive Returns & Economic 15 Staged Development Low Political Risk Available Workforce  To minimize capital risk, design around an initial high grade starter pit with scaled expansion & investigate the lower cap intensity heap leach option  Conventional process circuit. Will take project thru “detailed engineering” before seeking project finance  Favorable jurisdiction with long established mining laws  Host jurisdiction has available trained and or trainable work force, only need modest number of expatriate supervisors Permitting & Social Issues  Have local stakeholders (partners) with financial stake that are on record supporting project and EIS process Completion & Overrun Risk
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