Now that the dust has begun to settle after last month’s local elections across the capital, it would seem that the time is now right to step back and assess what the results will mean for housing associations, our businesses and the sector at large. • Why did Labour buck the national trend? • Why did the UKIP onward march stop short of the M25? • What does the shock result in Hammersmith & Fulham mean for large-scale development projects in west London? • And is NIMBY-ism becoming the acceptable face for those opposed to immigration?

1. • Dave Smith, External Affairs Manager (London),
National Housing Federation (Chair)
• Robert Gordon Clark, Executive Chairman, London
Communication Agency
The local elections in London –
what do the results mean for
housing associations?

2. London Communications Agency
LCA
NHF
LONDON: POST LOCAL ELECTIONS
NATIONAL HOUSING FEDERATION
ROBERT GORDON CLARK, EXECUTIVE CHAIRMAN
@LDNCOMMS
10 JULY 2014

3. London Communications Agency
LCA
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THE RIVER OF LONDON ELECTIONS
2005
General
Election
2006
Local
Elections
2008
London
Elections
2004
London
Elections
2010
Local
Elections
2010
General
Election
2012
London
Elections
2014
Local
Elections
SEPT 2014
Scottish
Referendum
2015
General
Election
2016
London
Elections

4. London Communications Agency
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NHF
LONDON ELECTIONS | 2006 ELECTION MAP

5. London Communications Agency
LCA
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LONDON ELECTIONS | 2010 ELECTION MAP

6. London Communications Agency
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LONDON ELECTIONS | PRE-2014 ELECTION MAP

7. London Communications Agency
LCA
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LONDON ELECTIONS | POST-2014 ELECTION MAP

8. London Communications Agency
LCA
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2006
Labour………………..………..7
Conservative……….…………13
Lib Dem………………..………3
NOC…………….……….……..9
2010
Labour………………..…...…..17
Conservative……….……...…11
Lib Dem………………….……2
NOC…………….……………..2
PREVIOUS LONDON ELECTIONS – BOROUGHS

9. London Communications Agency
LCA
NHF
Pre-2014 Local Elections
Labour………………..……….15
Conservative……….…………10
NOC…………….……….……...4
Lib Dem………………..…….…2
Independent……………………1
LONDON ELECTIONS | BOROUGH OVERVIEW
Post-2014 Local Elections
Labour…………………...20 (+5)
Conservative……….…..…9 (-1)
Lib Dem……………………1 (-1)
Tower Hamlets First……..1
(n/c)
NOC………………………..1 (-3)

10. London Communications Agency
LCA
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LONDON ELECTIONS | BUBBLE MAP

11. London Communications Agency
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LONDON ELECTIONS | COUNCILLOR TOTALS
LONDON
COUNCILLORS
ENGLAND
COUNCILLORS
Lab 1,058 (+216) 2,121 (+324)
Con 611 (-85) 1,364 (-236)
LD 116 (-121) 427 (-310)
UKIP 12 (-8) 163 (+161)
Green 4 (+2) 38 (+18)
Others 47 (-23) 146 (+43)
Total 1,848 (-13) 4,259

12. London Communications Agency
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LONDON ELECTIONS | FIRST LOSERS

13. London Communications Agency
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LONDON ELECTIONS | BOROUGH BY BOROUGH

14. London Communications Agency
LCA
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LONDON ELECTIONS | LBHF – LAB GAIN (6)
2010
Con: 31
Lab: 15
2014
Lab: 26
Con: 20

15. London Communications Agency
LCA
NHF
LONDON ELECTIONS | LAMBETH – LAB HOLD (55)
2014
2010
Lab: 44
LD: 15
Con: 4
2014
Lab: 59
Con: 3
Green: 1

16. London Communications Agency
LCA
NHF
LONDON ELECTIONS | SOUTHWARK – LAB HOLD (33)
2010
Lab: 35
LD: 25
Con: 3
2014
Lab: 48
LD: 13
Con: 2

17. London Communications Agency
LCA
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LONDON ELECTIONS | WANDSWORTH – CON HOLD (22)
2010
Con: 47
Lab: 13
2014
Con: 41
Lab: 19

18. London Communications Agency
LCA
NHF
LONDON ELECTIONS | KINGSTON – CON GAIN (8)
2010
LD: 27
Con: 21
2014
Con: 28
LD: 18
Lab: 2

19. London Communications Agency
LCA
NHF
LONDON ELECTIONS | EALING – LAB HOLD (37)
2014
Lab: 53
Con: 12
LD: 4
2010
Lab: 40
Con: 24
LD: 5

20. London Communications Agency
LCA
NHF
LONDON ELECTIONS | HOUNSLOW – LAB HOLD (38)
2010
Lab: 35
Con: 25
2014
Lab: 49
Con: 11

21. London Communications Agency
LCA
NHF
LONDON ELECTIONS | CAMDEN – LAB HOLD (26)
2010
Lab: 30
Con: 10
LD: 13
Green: 1
2014
Lab: 40
Con: 12
LD: 1
Green: 1

22. London Communications Agency
LCA
NHF
LONDON ELECTIONS | ISLINGTON – LAB HOLD (46)
2010
Lab: 35
LD: 13
2014
Lab: 47
Green: 1

23. London Communications Agency
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LONDON ELECTIONS | TOWER HAMLETS – THF HOLD
2014
Lab: 22
THF: 18
Con: 5
2010
Lab: 41
Con: 8
LD: 1
Ind: 1

24. London Communications Agency
LCA
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LONDON ELECTIONS | BARNET – CON HOLD (1)
2010
Con: 39
Lab: 21
LD: 3
2014
Con: 32
Lab: 30
LD: 1

25. London Communications Agency
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LONDON ELECTIONS | WESTMINSTER – CON HOLD (28)
2010
Con: 48
Lab: 12
2014
Con: 44
Lab: 16

26. London Communications Agency
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LONDON ELECTIONS | LOOKING FORWARD
• 18 September 2014: Scottish
Independence Referendum
• 7 May 2015: UK General
Election
• May 2016: London Mayor and
Assembly Elections

27. London Communications Agency
LCA
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LOOKING AHEAD | 2015 GENERAL ELECTION

28. London Communications Agency
LCA
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LOOKING AHEAD | LABOUR TARGET SEATS (2015)
TARGET
NUMBER
LABOUR PARTY INCUMBENT
PARTY
2010
MAJORITY
SWING
NEEDED (%)
TARGET
NUMBER
LABOUR PARTY INCUMBENT
PARTY
2010
MAJORITY
SWING
NEEDED (%)
1 North Warwickshire Conservative 54 0.1 35 Dundee East SNP 1,821 4.5
2 Thurrock Conservative 92 0.2 36 East Dunbartonshire Lib Dem 2,184 4.6
3 Hendon Conservative 106 0.2 37 Halesowen & Rowley Regis Conservative 2,023 4.6
4 Cardiff North Conservative 194 0.4 38 Nuneaton Conservative 2,069 4.6
5 Sherwood Conservative 214 0.4 39 Gloucester Conservative 2,420 4.8
6 Norwich South Lib Dem 310 0.7 40 Northampton North Conservative 1,936 4.8
7 Stockton South Conservative 332 0.7 41 Bury North Conservative 2,243 5.0
8 Broxtowe Conservative 389 0.7 42 Kingswood Conservative 2,445 5.1
9 Lancaster & Fleetwood Conservative 333 0.8 43 Erewash Conservative 2,501 5.3
10 Bradford East Lib Dem 365 0.9 44 Blackpool North & Cleveleys Conservative 2,150 5.3
11 Amber Valley Conservative 536 1.2 45 City of Chester Conservative 2,583 5.5
12 Waveney Conservative 769 1.5 46 Arfon Plaid Cymru 1,455 5.6
13 Wolverhampton South West Conservative 691 1.7 47 Croydon Central Conservative 2,879 5.8
14 Morecambe & Lunesdale Conservative 866 2.0 48 Worcester Conservative 2,982 6.1
15 Carlisle Conservative 853 2.0 49 Keighley Conservative 2,940 6.2
16 Stroud Conservative 1,299 2.2 50 Wirral West Conservative 2,436 6.2
17 Weaver Vale Conservative 991 2.3 51 Cannock Chase Conservative 3,195 7.0
18 Lincoln Conservative 1,058 2.3 52 Loughborough Conservative 3,744 7.1
19 Brighton, Pavilion Green 1,252 2.4 53 Harrow East Conservative 3,403 7.1
20 Plymouth Sutton & Devonport Conservative 1,149 2.6 54 Warwick & Leamington Conservative 3,513 7.2
21 Dewsbury Conservative 1,526 2.8 55 Birmingham, Yardley Lib Dem 3,002 7.3
22 Warrington South Conservative 1,553 2.8 56 South Swindon Conservative 3,544 7.5
23 Brent Central Lib Dem 1,345 3.0 57 Ealing Central & Acton Conservative 3,716 7.9
24 Bedford Conservative 1,353 3.0 58 Pendle Conservative 3,585 8.0
25 Brighton, Kemptown Conservative 1,328 3.1 59 Stevenage Conservative 3,578 8.0
26 Pudsey Conservative 1,659 3.4 60 Elmet & Rothwell Conservative 4,521 8.1
27 Corby Conservative 1,895 3.5 61 Edinburgh West Lib Dem 3,803 8.2
28 Brentford & Isleworth Conservative 1,958 3.6 62 Watford Conservative 1,425 8.2
29 Hove Conservative 1,868 3.8 63 Carmarthen West & South PembrokeshireConservative 3,423 8.5
30 Enfield North Conservative 1,692 3.8 64 Vale of Glamorgan Conservative 4,307 8.9
31 Hastings & Rye Conservative 1,993 4.0 65 Argyll & Bute Lib Dem 3,431 8.9
32 Manchester, Withington Lib Dem 1,894 4.2 66 Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & TweeddaleConservative 4,194 9.1
33 Burnley Lib Dem 1,818 4.3 67 Carmarthen East & Dinefwr Plaid Cymru 3,481 9.2
34 Ipswich Conservative 2,079 4.4 68 Norwich North Conservative 3,901 9.2

29. London Communications Agency
LCA
NHF
LOOKING AHEAD | CON TARGET SEATS (2015)
TARGET
NUMBER
CONSERVATIVE PARTY INCUMBENT
PARTY
2010
MAJORITY
SWING
NEEDED (%)
TARGET
NUMBER
CONSERVATIVE PARTY INCUMBENT
PARTY
2010
MAJORITY
SWING
NEEDED (%)
1 Hampstead & Kilburn Labour 42 0.1 35 Oldham East & Saddleworth Labour 103 5.4
2 Bolton West Labour 92 0.2 36 Southampton, Test Labour 2,413 5.5
3 Solihull Lib Dem 175 0.3 37 Luton South Labour 2,329 5.5
4 Southampton, Itchen Labour 192 0.4 38 Bridgend Labour 2,263 5.9
5 Mid Dorset and North Poole Lib Dem 269 0.6 39 Dagenham & Rainham Labour 2,630 5.9
6 Wirral South Labour 531 1.3 40 Delyn Labour 2,272 6.1
7 Derby North Labour 613 1.4 41 Cheadle Lib Dem 3,272 6.2
8 Wells Lib Dem 800 1.4 42 North Cornwall Lib Dem 2,981 6.4
9 Dudley North Labour 649 1.7 43 Gower Labour 2,683 6.4
10 Great Grimsby Labour 714 2.2 44 Norwich South Lib Dem 310 6.4
11 Morley & Outwood Labour 1,101 2.3 45 Penistone & Stocksbridge Labour 3,049 6.6
12 Telford Labour 978 2.4 46 Eastbourne Lib Dem 3,435 6.6
13 Walsall North Labour 990 2.7 47 Birmingham, Northfield Labour 2,782 6.7
14 St Austell & Newquay Lib Dem 1,312 2.8 48 Stalybridge & Hyde Labour 2,744 6.7
15 Somerton & Frome Lib Dem 1,817 3.0 49 Bury South Labour 3,292 6.8
16 Birmingham, Edgbaston Labour 1,274 3.1 50 Harrow West Labour 3,143 6.8
17 Sutton & Cheam Lib Dem 1,608 3.3 51 Bradford East Lib Dem 365 6.9
18 Halifax Labour 1,472 3.4 52 Taunton Deane Lib Dem 3,993 6.9
19 Newcastle-under-Lyme Labour 1,552 3.6 53 Scunthorpe Labour 2,549 6.9
20 Middlesbrough South & East ClevelandLabour 1,677 3.6 54 Berwick-upon-Tweed Lib Dem 2,690 7.0
21 Wakefield Labour 1,613 3.6 55 Vale of Clwyd Labour 2,509 7.1
22 St Ives Lib Dem 1,719 3.7 56 Wolverhampton North East Labour 2,484 7.1
23 Plymouth Moor View Labour 1,588 3.8 57 Eastleigh Lib Dem 3,864 7.2
24 Gedling Labour 1,859 3.9 58 Hyndburn Labour 3,090 7.2
25 Eltham Labour 1,663 4.0 59 Alyn & Deeside Labour 2,919 7.3
26 Walsall South Labour 1,755 4.3 60 Birmingham, Selly Oak Labour 3,482 7.5
27 Nottingham South Labour 1,772 4.3 61 Hammersmith Labour 3,549 7.5
28 Chippenham Lib Dem 2,470 4.7 62 Argyll & Bute Lib Dem 3,431 7.6
29 Tooting Labour 2,524 5.0 63 Brighton, Pavilion Green 1,252 7.6
30 Chorley Labour 2,593 5.2 64 Darlington Labour 3,388 7.9
31 North East Derbyshire Labour 2,445 5.2 65 Sefton Central Labour 3,862 8.0
32 Exeter Labour 2,721 5.2 66 Aberdeenshire West & KincardineLib Dem 3,684 8.2
33 Blackpool South Labour 1,852 5.3 67 Clwyd South Labour 2,834 8.2
34 Westminster North Labour 2,126 5.4 68 Bristol East Labour 3,722 8.3

30. London Communications Agency
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THE GUARDIAN | POLL OF POLLS

31. London Communications Agency
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1992 GENERAL ELECTION

32. London Communications Agency
LCA
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LOOKING BACK : LONDON MAYORAL ELECTIONS
• 4 May 2000: Ken Livingstone (Ind)
Maj: 212,290
• 10 June 2004: Ken Livingstone (Lab)
Maj: 161,202
• 1 May 2008: Boris Johnson (Con)
Maj: 139,772
• 3 May 2012: Boris Johnson (Con)
Maj: 62,538

33. London Communications Agency
LCA
NHF
LOOKING BACK : LONDON ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS
2000 2004 2008 2012
CON 9 9 11 9
LAB 9 7 8 12
LIB DEM 4 5 3 2
GREEN 3 2 2 2
UKIP 0 2 0 0
BNP 0 0 1 0

34. London Communications Agency
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LOOKING BACK : LONDON MAYORAL ELECTIONS

35. London Communications Agency
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LOOKING AHEAD : 2016 MAYORAL ELECTION

36. London Communications Agency
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LOOKING AHEAD : 2016 MAYORAL ELECTION

37. London Communications Agency
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IMPLICATIONS FOR THE HOUSING COMMUNITY
• Further Alterations to the London Plan (FALP):
– local authority housing targets (42k pa)
– 80% market rent definition
• Mayor’s Housing Strategy:
– 20 ‘Housing Zones’
– London Rental Standard
– Releasing public sector land
• Local Authority borrowing cap
– More calls for cap to be lifted to build more homes
– Free up councils to become sole housing providers again

38. London Communications Agency
LCA
NHF
QUESTIONS?

39. Questions?
• @natfeddave
• @rgclondoncomms
• website@housing.org.uk