Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
- Annual wage growth has gradually decreased from 6.6% in Q4 2014 to 6.1% in Q1 2015, while annual inflation rose to 1.2% in May indicating sustained demand. GDP growth was stable and moderate at 2% year-on-year in Q1 2015.
- Private consumption was the main driver of GDP growth, rising 2.6% year-on-year due to increased wages and other factors like improved consumer confidence. Exports also grew but investment decreased slightly.
- Core inflation grew slightly more than expected in May, which can be partially explained by increased prices for accommodation and other services due to Latvia's presidency of the EU council, but also indicates the effect of sustained
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
"Highlights":
* Healthy growth, but caution warranted
* Inflation growth decelerating
* Recovery of imports increased current account deficit
"In Focus":
* Does the financing from the EU structural funds improve the competitiveness of Latvian businesses?, autors: Oļegs Krasnopjorovs
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
"Highlights":
* Economy faces temporary slowdown
* Inflation hovering around 0
* Current account back to normal
"In Focus":
* The new school bag of the 2017 budget contains homework, autors: Guntis Kalniņš
The document provides an economic bulletin with the following key points:
1) Global economic growth remained moderate in the third quarter of 2015, with divergence across major economies. US and UK growth appeared to slow, while Japan's growth remained subdued. China's growth showed a gradual slowdown.
2) Euro area financial markets showed some volatility, with bond yields declining and stock prices rising slightly. The euro remained stable.
3) Euro area economic recovery is proceeding, supported by private consumption. GDP rose 0.4% in Q2 2015 and a similar pace is expected in Q3. Recovery is expected to continue but dampened by weak foreign demand.
Highlights:
- Current account reflects the recovering investment activity
- Annual inflation continues hovering around 3%
- GDP growth exceeds expectations and leads to revised forecasts
In Focus:
- Latvia 2017: Back to growth and structural reforms, by Mārtiņš Grāvītis
- Annual wage growth has gradually decreased from 6.6% in Q4 2014 to 6.1% in Q1 2015, while annual inflation rose to 1.2% in May indicating sustained demand. GDP growth was stable and moderate at 2% year-on-year in Q1 2015.
- Private consumption was the main driver of GDP growth, rising 2.6% year-on-year due to increased wages and other factors like improved consumer confidence. Exports also grew but investment decreased slightly.
- Core inflation grew slightly more than expected in May, which can be partially explained by increased prices for accommodation and other services due to Latvia's presidency of the EU council, but also indicates the effect of sustained
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
"Highlights":
* Healthy growth, but caution warranted
* Inflation growth decelerating
* Recovery of imports increased current account deficit
"In Focus":
* Does the financing from the EU structural funds improve the competitiveness of Latvian businesses?, autors: Oļegs Krasnopjorovs
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
"Highlights":
* Economy faces temporary slowdown
* Inflation hovering around 0
* Current account back to normal
"In Focus":
* The new school bag of the 2017 budget contains homework, autors: Guntis Kalniņš
The document provides an economic bulletin with the following key points:
1) Global economic growth remained moderate in the third quarter of 2015, with divergence across major economies. US and UK growth appeared to slow, while Japan's growth remained subdued. China's growth showed a gradual slowdown.
2) Euro area financial markets showed some volatility, with bond yields declining and stock prices rising slightly. The euro remained stable.
3) Euro area economic recovery is proceeding, supported by private consumption. GDP rose 0.4% in Q2 2015 and a similar pace is expected in Q3. Recovery is expected to continue but dampened by weak foreign demand.
Highlights:
- Current account reflects the recovering investment activity
- Annual inflation continues hovering around 3%
- GDP growth exceeds expectations and leads to revised forecasts
In Focus:
- Latvia 2017: Back to growth and structural reforms, by Mārtiņš Grāvītis
Macroeconomic Developments Report, June 2017Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation. The publication is available only in electronic form.
UK retail sales in Q1 likely contracted from Q4 2016, despite their rebound in February.
Falling real wages and slowing household borrowing are likely to further dampen retail sales and consumption growth going forward.
The still large pool of available workers is seemingly limiting their wage-bargaining power, with nominal wage growth falling behind rising inflation.
Moreover, investment growth is still only making a negligible contribution to GDP growth ahead of the British government’s decision to trigger Article 50 on 29th March.
Much of the rise in inflation in recent months is attributable to imported inflation driven by Sterling’s depreciation since November 2015 with little evidence of demand-led inflation.
This situation is reminiscent of 2007-2008 when Sterling’s collapse fuelled imported and in turn headline inflation.
Should Sterling remain broadly unchanged going forward, its year-on-year pace of depreciation, currently around 9%, would slow from June onwards and hit zero towards end-year according to my estimates, in turn dampening imported inflation.
I would expect retailers to stabilise prices to maintain market share in the face of tepid demand and for wage-inflation expectations to remain modest. This was certainly the case in the 12 months to September 2009 with CPI-inflation falling from 5.2% yoy to 1.1% yoy.
The question is whether the BoE is willing to look beyond a potentially temporary rise in UK inflation – as Governor Mark Carney suggested – or whether it tries to short-circuit any self-reinforcing rise in prices.
My base-line scenario is that the BoE will look beyond the current rise in UK inflation, unless at least one of three conditions materialise:
(1) Nominal wage growth accelerates, comfortably outstripping headline inflation and driving consumption growth;
(2) Commercial bank lending picks up significantly; and
(3) Sterling depreciates materially from current levels, exacerbating imported and in turn headline inflation.
I expect that neither (1) or (2) will materialise any time soon and that while risks to Sterling are probably to the downside, Sterling is unlikely to weaken sufficiently to push the BoE into hiking. I would however expect it to keep a possible rate hike firmly on the table.
The document summarizes the results of a survey of Latvian household borrowers conducted in 2013 to assess their financial vulnerability. It finds that 10.2% of household borrowers can be considered vulnerable, with negative financial margins, though this is a slight improvement from 11.2% in 2011. While household debt burdens have decreased slightly, borrowers remain sensitive to declines in income or increases in interest rates. Unemployment shocks would have a more moderate impact due to unemployment benefits. Overall vulnerability has decreased modestly in recent years but potential losses to lenders remain limited.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
"Highlights":
Consumer prices are on the rise though annual inflation remains negative
Surplus in the current account for the second consecutive quarter
Lending is back
"In Focus":
Macroeconomic forecasts, by: Igors Kasjanovs
Thailand Blockchain Community InitiativeRein Mahatma
“Thai Economy: The Current State and the Way Forward”
Keynote Address by Dr. Veerathai Santiprabhob
Governor of the Ban of Thailand
Nomura Investment Forum Asia 2018
5 June 2018 / Singapore
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
The document provides an economic outlook and forecasts for the Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania in 2009-2010. It finds that while private sector adjustments have been faster than expected, public sector adjustments still lag despite efforts. GDP is forecast to decline substantially in all three countries in 2009, with Latvia facing the steepest drop of around 17%. Deeper budget cuts are still needed in the public sectors of Estonia and Latvia to reduce budget deficits. Overall, a slow recovery is expected to begin in 2010, led initially by stabilizing exports, while domestic demand remains weak.
Flash Report - Government Deficit - 6 April 2018OTP Bank Ltd.
2017-ben a kormányzat előzetes bejelentésének megfelelően 2% volt a költségvetés hiánya. Az erős bér- és fogyasztás-bővülés miatt gyorsan nőttek az adóbevételek. A kiadási oldalon a legnagyobb mértékben, 54%-kal a beruházások nőttek, illetve az év végi, diszkrecionális döntéseknek köszönhetően a dologi kiadások. A beruházások várhatóan átmeneti megugrása és az év végi diszkrecionális döntések nélküli egyenleg továbbra is egyensúly közeli. Az államadósság – amely immár az Exim Bank adatait is tartalmazza – a GDP 73.6%-ára mérséklődött az előző évi 76%-ról, dacára annak, hogy az EU-s projektek előfinanszírozása az eredmény-szemléletűnél érdemben magasabb pénzforgalmi deficitet eredményezett. Előretekintve a kockázatok – részben a választásokhoz kötődő bizonytalanság miatt – a deficit növekedése irányába mutatnak.
GDP growth in India picked up to 7.9% in Q1 2016 driven by private and public consumption, while exports contracted and investment growth deteriorated. Overall growth for FY2015/2016 was 7.6%. Private consumption will remain strong but sluggish investment growth and reluctance of banks to provide new credit are causes for concern. Euler Hermes expects GDP growth to stabilize at 7.6% in FY2016/2017.
The document summarizes the current state of the US economy and monetary policy outlook. It notes that the economy is expected to accelerate in 2017, with the labor market strengthening and inflation approaching the Fed's 2% target. While risks are balanced, potential downside risks include trade wars, a stronger dollar, rising interest rates, and weak global growth. Monetary policy remains accommodative, and further rate increases will be data-dependent.
The document provides an economic outlook for 2016, predicting lower global economic growth and more economic turbulence. It notes weaker growth in western economies due to low oil prices, but emerging markets will be more severely impacted. There will be more uncertainty and volatility in the global economy. Key risks include a potential crisis in the Eurozone, fragile emerging market economies like China and Brazil, and the timing of interest rate increases by central banks. Overall, the global economy will see slower growth with more uncertainty in 2016.
"Highlights":
* Manufacturing growth supported by nearly all sectors
* Exports regain pace
* Inflation boosted by global food prices growth while oil prices decrease
"In Focus":
* Comparison of the Baltic States' exports, author Daina Pelēce
The Polish economy grew by 3.0% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2010, in line with forecasts. Growth was driven by consumption, inventory restocking, and net exports. However, the economy lost momentum compared to the previous quarter due to a sharp drop in fixed business investment affected by severe winter weather. Unemployment increased in the first quarter but began falling rapidly in April, suggesting recovery is underway in the labor market. Inflation moderated in the first quarter and further in April. The central bank does not expect to change interest rates until 2011. Overall, while the economy experienced a soft patch in the first quarter, growth is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2010.
The document summarizes the state of the Lithuanian economy based on a monthly newsletter from Swedbank's Economic Research Department. It finds that while corporate profits are increasing, investments in fixed tangible assets continue to decline sharply. However, improving economic indicators and increasing capacity utilization suggest investments will need to increase to boost productivity and competitiveness. Retained earnings from higher profits and tax incentives are expected to be important sources of financing the needed investment growth in 2011. Continued recovery in domestic demand and exports also point to a gradual rise in credit availability and investments.
- Estonia weathered the recent economic crisis well due to fiscal adjustments introduced during the recession that allowed it to avoid a fiscal collapse. This included running budget surpluses in previous years that provided reserves.
- The economic recovery has been faster than expected, leading to higher than planned budget revenues in 2010. This means the budget deficit will be lower than targeted at 1.3% of GDP rather than 2.8%.
- For 2011, budget revenues are expected to increase 2% while expenditures rise 5%. This would result in a budget deficit of 1.6% of GDP, still below the 2% limit set in Estonia's budget strategy. Estonia is in a strong fiscal position compared to
The document summarizes the OECD Economic Outlook report. It finds that:
1) The global economy is growing slowly, with world GDP growth below historical averages and weak trade growth.
2) Growth projections vary across countries, with the US expected to accelerate but remain below trend, while China and India are projected to experience slower growth than in recent years.
3) Risks to the outlook are on the downside and include high debt levels in advanced economies and potential slowing of potential growth rates.
The Latvian economy experienced its strongest growth since 2012 in the second quarter of 2017, with GDP increasing 4.1% year-on-year. Growth was driven by accelerating construction sector investment and EU structural fund absorption against a backdrop of gradual lending market recovery. Manufacturing continues to be a strong contributor to growth, supported by favorable conditions in major trading partners, while the retail sector also picked up pace in Q2 after moderate growth in late 2016 and early 2017. If current trends persist, GDP growth could be higher than previously expected.
RICS UK Economy and Property Market Chart Book - February 2016 (1)George Marcou
The document provides an economic commentary and analysis of the UK property market. It notes that global growth concerns continue to rattle financial markets and weigh on the outlook. While the UK economy expanded 2.2% in 2015, growth slowed in the second half of the year. The labor market added jobs recently but substantial slack remains. Commercial property demand is rising, particularly for industrial space, while housing transaction activity increased ahead of an upcoming tax change.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
The Governor of Latvijas Banka held a press conference in December to discuss fiscal policy and the national budget. He emphasized that 2017 will be a crucial time to establish a reasonable fiscal policy and balance the budget. A budget for 2017 should ensure stability, be balanced, and undergo careful review of expenses through zero-based budgeting. While the 2016 budget has issues, attention must now turn to improving the budget drafting process for 2017. Stability is needed for the business environment, investment, and lending. A review of the tax system is supported but taxes should not be manipulated for at least one election cycle. Living with budget deficits leads to higher public debt and taxes over time in a vicious cycle. Structural reforms in education
Macroeconomic Developments Report, June 2017Latvijas Banka
Based on data from Latvijas Banka, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Ministry of Finance, and Financial and Capital Market Commission, this publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation. The publication is available only in electronic form.
UK retail sales in Q1 likely contracted from Q4 2016, despite their rebound in February.
Falling real wages and slowing household borrowing are likely to further dampen retail sales and consumption growth going forward.
The still large pool of available workers is seemingly limiting their wage-bargaining power, with nominal wage growth falling behind rising inflation.
Moreover, investment growth is still only making a negligible contribution to GDP growth ahead of the British government’s decision to trigger Article 50 on 29th March.
Much of the rise in inflation in recent months is attributable to imported inflation driven by Sterling’s depreciation since November 2015 with little evidence of demand-led inflation.
This situation is reminiscent of 2007-2008 when Sterling’s collapse fuelled imported and in turn headline inflation.
Should Sterling remain broadly unchanged going forward, its year-on-year pace of depreciation, currently around 9%, would slow from June onwards and hit zero towards end-year according to my estimates, in turn dampening imported inflation.
I would expect retailers to stabilise prices to maintain market share in the face of tepid demand and for wage-inflation expectations to remain modest. This was certainly the case in the 12 months to September 2009 with CPI-inflation falling from 5.2% yoy to 1.1% yoy.
The question is whether the BoE is willing to look beyond a potentially temporary rise in UK inflation – as Governor Mark Carney suggested – or whether it tries to short-circuit any self-reinforcing rise in prices.
My base-line scenario is that the BoE will look beyond the current rise in UK inflation, unless at least one of three conditions materialise:
(1) Nominal wage growth accelerates, comfortably outstripping headline inflation and driving consumption growth;
(2) Commercial bank lending picks up significantly; and
(3) Sterling depreciates materially from current levels, exacerbating imported and in turn headline inflation.
I expect that neither (1) or (2) will materialise any time soon and that while risks to Sterling are probably to the downside, Sterling is unlikely to weaken sufficiently to push the BoE into hiking. I would however expect it to keep a possible rate hike firmly on the table.
The document summarizes the results of a survey of Latvian household borrowers conducted in 2013 to assess their financial vulnerability. It finds that 10.2% of household borrowers can be considered vulnerable, with negative financial margins, though this is a slight improvement from 11.2% in 2011. While household debt burdens have decreased slightly, borrowers remain sensitive to declines in income or increases in interest rates. Unemployment shocks would have a more moderate impact due to unemployment benefits. Overall vulnerability has decreased modestly in recent years but potential losses to lenders remain limited.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
"Highlights":
Consumer prices are on the rise though annual inflation remains negative
Surplus in the current account for the second consecutive quarter
Lending is back
"In Focus":
Macroeconomic forecasts, by: Igors Kasjanovs
Thailand Blockchain Community InitiativeRein Mahatma
“Thai Economy: The Current State and the Way Forward”
Keynote Address by Dr. Veerathai Santiprabhob
Governor of the Ban of Thailand
Nomura Investment Forum Asia 2018
5 June 2018 / Singapore
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
The document provides an economic outlook and forecasts for the Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania in 2009-2010. It finds that while private sector adjustments have been faster than expected, public sector adjustments still lag despite efforts. GDP is forecast to decline substantially in all three countries in 2009, with Latvia facing the steepest drop of around 17%. Deeper budget cuts are still needed in the public sectors of Estonia and Latvia to reduce budget deficits. Overall, a slow recovery is expected to begin in 2010, led initially by stabilizing exports, while domestic demand remains weak.
Flash Report - Government Deficit - 6 April 2018OTP Bank Ltd.
2017-ben a kormányzat előzetes bejelentésének megfelelően 2% volt a költségvetés hiánya. Az erős bér- és fogyasztás-bővülés miatt gyorsan nőttek az adóbevételek. A kiadási oldalon a legnagyobb mértékben, 54%-kal a beruházások nőttek, illetve az év végi, diszkrecionális döntéseknek köszönhetően a dologi kiadások. A beruházások várhatóan átmeneti megugrása és az év végi diszkrecionális döntések nélküli egyenleg továbbra is egyensúly közeli. Az államadósság – amely immár az Exim Bank adatait is tartalmazza – a GDP 73.6%-ára mérséklődött az előző évi 76%-ról, dacára annak, hogy az EU-s projektek előfinanszírozása az eredmény-szemléletűnél érdemben magasabb pénzforgalmi deficitet eredményezett. Előretekintve a kockázatok – részben a választásokhoz kötődő bizonytalanság miatt – a deficit növekedése irányába mutatnak.
GDP growth in India picked up to 7.9% in Q1 2016 driven by private and public consumption, while exports contracted and investment growth deteriorated. Overall growth for FY2015/2016 was 7.6%. Private consumption will remain strong but sluggish investment growth and reluctance of banks to provide new credit are causes for concern. Euler Hermes expects GDP growth to stabilize at 7.6% in FY2016/2017.
The document summarizes the current state of the US economy and monetary policy outlook. It notes that the economy is expected to accelerate in 2017, with the labor market strengthening and inflation approaching the Fed's 2% target. While risks are balanced, potential downside risks include trade wars, a stronger dollar, rising interest rates, and weak global growth. Monetary policy remains accommodative, and further rate increases will be data-dependent.
The document provides an economic outlook for 2016, predicting lower global economic growth and more economic turbulence. It notes weaker growth in western economies due to low oil prices, but emerging markets will be more severely impacted. There will be more uncertainty and volatility in the global economy. Key risks include a potential crisis in the Eurozone, fragile emerging market economies like China and Brazil, and the timing of interest rate increases by central banks. Overall, the global economy will see slower growth with more uncertainty in 2016.
"Highlights":
* Manufacturing growth supported by nearly all sectors
* Exports regain pace
* Inflation boosted by global food prices growth while oil prices decrease
"In Focus":
* Comparison of the Baltic States' exports, author Daina Pelēce
The Polish economy grew by 3.0% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2010, in line with forecasts. Growth was driven by consumption, inventory restocking, and net exports. However, the economy lost momentum compared to the previous quarter due to a sharp drop in fixed business investment affected by severe winter weather. Unemployment increased in the first quarter but began falling rapidly in April, suggesting recovery is underway in the labor market. Inflation moderated in the first quarter and further in April. The central bank does not expect to change interest rates until 2011. Overall, while the economy experienced a soft patch in the first quarter, growth is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2010.
The document summarizes the state of the Lithuanian economy based on a monthly newsletter from Swedbank's Economic Research Department. It finds that while corporate profits are increasing, investments in fixed tangible assets continue to decline sharply. However, improving economic indicators and increasing capacity utilization suggest investments will need to increase to boost productivity and competitiveness. Retained earnings from higher profits and tax incentives are expected to be important sources of financing the needed investment growth in 2011. Continued recovery in domestic demand and exports also point to a gradual rise in credit availability and investments.
- Estonia weathered the recent economic crisis well due to fiscal adjustments introduced during the recession that allowed it to avoid a fiscal collapse. This included running budget surpluses in previous years that provided reserves.
- The economic recovery has been faster than expected, leading to higher than planned budget revenues in 2010. This means the budget deficit will be lower than targeted at 1.3% of GDP rather than 2.8%.
- For 2011, budget revenues are expected to increase 2% while expenditures rise 5%. This would result in a budget deficit of 1.6% of GDP, still below the 2% limit set in Estonia's budget strategy. Estonia is in a strong fiscal position compared to
The document summarizes the OECD Economic Outlook report. It finds that:
1) The global economy is growing slowly, with world GDP growth below historical averages and weak trade growth.
2) Growth projections vary across countries, with the US expected to accelerate but remain below trend, while China and India are projected to experience slower growth than in recent years.
3) Risks to the outlook are on the downside and include high debt levels in advanced economies and potential slowing of potential growth rates.
The Latvian economy experienced its strongest growth since 2012 in the second quarter of 2017, with GDP increasing 4.1% year-on-year. Growth was driven by accelerating construction sector investment and EU structural fund absorption against a backdrop of gradual lending market recovery. Manufacturing continues to be a strong contributor to growth, supported by favorable conditions in major trading partners, while the retail sector also picked up pace in Q2 after moderate growth in late 2016 and early 2017. If current trends persist, GDP growth could be higher than previously expected.
RICS UK Economy and Property Market Chart Book - February 2016 (1)George Marcou
The document provides an economic commentary and analysis of the UK property market. It notes that global growth concerns continue to rattle financial markets and weigh on the outlook. While the UK economy expanded 2.2% in 2015, growth slowed in the second half of the year. The labor market added jobs recently but substantial slack remains. Commercial property demand is rising, particularly for industrial space, while housing transaction activity increased ahead of an upcoming tax change.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
The Governor of Latvijas Banka held a press conference in December to discuss fiscal policy and the national budget. He emphasized that 2017 will be a crucial time to establish a reasonable fiscal policy and balance the budget. A budget for 2017 should ensure stability, be balanced, and undergo careful review of expenses through zero-based budgeting. While the 2016 budget has issues, attention must now turn to improving the budget drafting process for 2017. Stability is needed for the business environment, investment, and lending. A review of the tax system is supported but taxes should not be manipulated for at least one election cycle. Living with budget deficits leads to higher public debt and taxes over time in a vicious cycle. Structural reforms in education
The boom becomes less pronounced but continues. This year, the growth of exports will not reach the peak figures of last year but the growth will to some extent pick up speed again in next year. The quickly decreased unemployment rate will continue to drop. An analysis of long-term employment growth by age group shows that positive employment growth is concentrated on the one hand on younger employees and, on the other hand, older employees, whereas the employment rate of men aged 25–34 is growing smaller. The government budget policy is too expansive, given the economic situation.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank Economic Outlook 29 September 2009Swedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank Economic Outlook - 2010, September 21Swedbank
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
"Highlights":
* Inflation stabilizes, main risk stems from oil price fluctuations
* Manufacturing retains high growth momentum
* Exports of goods increase volume and diversity
"In Focus":
* Tax reform, autors: Kārlis Vilerts
- GDP growth in the UK has slowed slightly in 2015 compared to 2014, with quarterly growth of 0.5% in Q3 2015. Private consumption and investment have remained robust drivers of growth.
- Annual inflation has remained close to zero for most of 2015, driven by falling goods prices, while services inflation has remained around 2.5%.
- The UK labor market continues to strengthen, with record high employment, falling unemployment, and a declining inactivity rate, indicating further tightening in the labor market.
OTP Bank_Flash report 20170707_hu_deficitOTP Bank Ltd.
Az első negyedévben rekord többletet mutatott a költségvetés ESA egyenlege. A második negyedévi pénzforgalmi hiányt az EU-s források megelőlegezése okozta, a költségvetés alapfolyamatai továbbra is kedvezőek.
Annual inflation in Latvia declined to 0.6% in June due to falling energy and food prices. Bank loan portfolios increased for the first time in eight months driven by corporate lending. Merchandise exports continued to grow with machinery and chemicals seeing the fastest increases, though exports to Russia declined as other markets like Lithuania and the UK expanded. Latvijas Banka held a discussion on boosting productivity to support sustainable economic growth above 2-3%, noting the need for government strategy and education reforms to increase competitiveness.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Highlights:
* GDP growth at 2.6% in 2015
* Current account posted improvement
* Unemployment continues to decrease, but at a slower pace
In Focus:
Zero-based approach to government budgeting, Baiba Traidase
"Highlights":
Annual inflation was stable in April
GDP growth maintained by retail trade and impeded by energy sector
Labour market gradually becoming more favourable for employees
"In Focus":
Eurosystem's monetary policy: Expanded Asset Purchase Programme; autors: Egils Kaužēns
Latvijas Banka Monthly Newsletter
Content:
"Highlights":
- Export growth resists adverse external environment
- Money indicators develop favourably
- Economic sentiment tends to improve
"In Focus":
"Allocation of resources in Latvia improved after the crisis" by Konstantīns Beņkovskis
In this issue of Economy Matters, we analyse the recent Fed rate hike and Euro Zone economic prospects, in the section on Global Trends. We have covered data trends in GDP, IIP, Inflation, Monetary Policy and Trade in the Domestic Trends section. Find out the results of 2QFY16 In Corporate Performance section. Taxation section covers the views of Sumit Dutt Mazumder, former Chairman of CBEC on GST. The Sectoral Spotlight for this issue is on Financial Conditions Index for 3QFY16. Read Focus of the Month, to know about ‘Skilling India’, wherein experts from diverse areas present their views.
Highlights:
* Fastest GDP growth in 6 years
* Inflation slightly down
* Dynamic year for retail trade
In Focus.
Four years in the euro area – have the promises come true? author: Egils Kaužēns
Macroeconomic Developments Report. December 2019Latvijas Banka
The Macroeconomic Developments Report is published on a semi-annual basis. This publication assesses developments of the external sector and exports, financial market, domestic demand and supply, prices and costs, and balance of payments, and provides forecasts for the economic development and inflation.
The document summarizes recent economic data from the UK. It notes that GDP growth slowed to 0.5% in the third quarter of 2015, with services growth remaining strong but manufacturing and construction declining. Unemployment has fallen to 5.4%, its lowest since 2008, with reductions across age groups and durations of unemployment. Average weekly earnings grew 2.8% in the latest period, with private sector pay growth stronger than public sector. Real earnings growth has picked up from post-downturn lows but remains below pre-2008 levels in most industries.
Global growth continues to remain tepid. In US, new data releases are pointing towards a mild recovery, but not compelling enough to force the Federal Reserve to change its monetary policy stance. Labour market is recovering slowly and unemployment rate has continued to decline. On the domestic front, inflation has continued to remain subdued. Given the downward trajectory of inflation and limited upside risks in the wake of benign global commodity prices, the Central Bank chose to cut interest rates by 50 bps in end-September 2015.
In the current issue of Economy Matters, we analyse the growth prospects of Euro Area economies and US economy, in the section on Global Trends. In Domestic Trends, data trends in IIP, inflation, trade and monetary policy are analysed. Corporate Performance section analyses the corporate results for 1QFY16. The Sectoral Spotlight for this issue is on ‘Make in India and the Potential for Job Creation’. In Focus of the Month, the important issue of ‘Financial Inclusion’ has been covered.
Swedbank was founded in 1820, as Sweden’s first savings bank was established. Today, our heritage is visible in that we truly are a bank for each and every one and in that we still strive to contribute to a sustainable development of society and our environment. We are strongly committed to society as a whole and keen to help bring about a sustainable form of societal development. Our Swedish operations hold an ISO 14001 environmental certification, and environmental work is an integral part of our business activities.
Swedbank corporate presentation April 25 2017Swedbank
This document provides an overview of Swedbank, a bank operating in Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. It details that Swedbank has over 16 million inhabitants, 7.3 million private customers, and 651,000 corporate customers across its four home markets. Key figures on branches, employees and lending are also provided for each country. The document discusses Swedbank's history, vision, values, purpose and engagement in society. It outlines challenges from new customer needs, competitors, regulations and economic developments, and how Swedbank is adapting. Services provided to private and corporate customers are also summarized.
The interim report summarizes Swedbank's financial results for the first quarter of 2017. Net interest income and lending volumes increased compared to the previous quarter, while net commission income decreased due to seasonal effects. Overall profits increased 25% compared to the first year, strengthened by a capital gain from the sale of Hemnet. Credit quality remained strong across all business segments, though additional provisions were made for oil-related sectors. The report provides an overview of each business segment and notes that economic indicators have strengthened in Sweden and the Baltic countries in recent months.
Swedbank reported its year-end results for 2016. In Q4 2016, net interest income increased 3% compared to Q3 2016 supported by increased lending volumes. Net commission income benefited from positive stock market development. Higher volumes of covered bond repurchases weighed down Treasury's result. Costs were in line with expectations and credit quality remained solid despite increased provisions in oil related sectors. For the full year 2016, total income increased 11% while total expenses increased only 1%, leading to an 18% rise in operating profit. Return on equity was 15.8% and the proposed dividend per share was SEK 13.20, up from SEK 10.70 the previous year.
Swedbank corporate presentation, February 2 2017Swedbank
Swedbank is a major banking group in Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, serving over 16 million inhabitants and 7.3 million private customers. It has 389 branches and over 13,700 employees across its four home markets. The document provides an overview of Swedbank's operations and presence in each of its home markets, its financial figures, strategic focus areas, engagement in society, and the services it provides to both private and corporate customers.
Swedbank Corporate Presentation, October 25 2016Swedbank
Swedbank is a major bank operating in Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania with over 14,000 employees. It has a presence in several other Nordic and Baltic countries as well as in China, South Africa, Luxembourg, and the US. The bank provides a variety of financial services to over 7 million private customers and 640,000 corporate customers. Swedbank is adapting to changes in customer needs, regulations, competitors and the macroeconomic environment to remain a strong, relevant bank.
Swedbank Corporate Presentation, June 30 2016Swedbank
Swedbank is a Swedish bank that provides banking services to individuals and businesses. It has over 2.4 trillion SEK in total assets and 7.3 billion SEK in operating profits. It operates primarily in Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, serving over 4 million private customers and over 500,000 corporate customers. Swedbank aims to be accessible to customers through its branches, phone, and digital channels and to promote financial well-being for households and enterprises.
Swedbank is a bank based in Sweden with operations also in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and other markets. As of March 31, 2016 it had total assets of SEK 2,404 billion and an operating profit of SEK 5,275 million. It aims to promote sound financial situations for households and enterprises through offering banking services such as savings, loans, investments and insurance. The presentation provides an overview of Swedbank's home markets, history, values of being simple, open and caring, and private and corporate banking services.
The presentation outlines Swedbank's purpose, history, values, products and services for private and corporate customers, and emphasizes its commitment to being accessible and providing a positive experience for customers.
This document provides Swedbank's year-end report for 2015. It summarizes that Swedbank's profit for the fourth quarter was stable at SEK 3.8 billion despite challenges from lower interest rates and economic uncertainty. Total income was SEK 9.5 billion for the quarter. For the full year, profit was SEK 15.7 billion, down 4% from 2014, as lower interest rates reduced net interest income despite increased mortgage and deposit volumes. The CEO commented that priorities in 2015 were improving customer value, increasing efficiency, and integrating Sparbanken Öresund.
Swedbank Corporate Presentation, September 2015Swedbank
The bank aims to promote sound financial management for households and enterprises through products like loans, savings, investments, and insurance that are accessible via branches, phone, and online banking designed to be simple, open, and caring.
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Ponzi schemes, a notorious form of financial fraud, have plagued America’s investment landscape for decades. Named after Charles Ponzi, who orchestrated one of the most infamous schemes in the early 20th century, these fraudulent operations promise high returns with little or no risk, only to collapse and leave investors with significant losses. This article explores the nature of Ponzi schemes, notable cases in American history, their impact on victims, and measures to prevent falling prey to such scams.
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The Latvian Economy - 2010, June
1. The Latvian Economy
Monthly newsletter from Swedbank’s Economic Research Department
by Mārtiņš Kazāks No. 2 • June 2010
Recession is over, robust recovery still to root in
• After eight quarters of uninterrupted contraction and a cumulative drop of about 25%
from the business cycle peak in 2007, Latvian GDP in the 1st
quarter of 2010 grew
by 0.3% (seasonally adjusted, quarter on quarter). The recession was ended by
export-related growth and, to some extent, also by income tax evasion that
supported household consumption.
• The recent IMF/ EC joint review mission concludes that good progress is being
made in stabilizing the Latvian economy; the programme remains on track.
Government finances are relatively stable. Due to a stronger financial position,
Latvia intends to slow the speed of borrowing and perhaps will borrow less from
foreign donors than previously forecast.
• The Ministry of Finance has produced a reasonably good policy paper on how to
tackle the grey economy. In contrast, the draft tax policy paper goes only halfway,
but it is somewhat naïve to expect a “true” tax policy overhaul plan until after the
October general elections.
Recession is over and fragile recovery has
started
Detailed 1st
quarter 2010 GDP data published by
the Central Statistical Bureau in mid-June
confirmed our view that the economy had hit rock
bottom late last year. After eight quarters of
uninterrupted contraction, GDP in the 1st
quarter of
2010 was reported to have grown by 0.3% (quarter
on quarter, seasonally adjusted). After a cumulative
drop of 25% from the business cycle peak in late
2007, this sounds more like stabilisation, not
growth. Yet, it does show that the downward trend
has broken, thereby by tangible data confirming
steady improvements in household and business
confidence surveys seen since around mid-2009.
The economy is clearly on track to recovery, but
growth will be fragile at the beginning – for at least
a few quarters, we may see that expansion in one
quarter is followed by contraction in another.
In terms of annual growth rates, Latvian GDP in the
1
st
quarter of 2010 was still 6% below its respective
last year’s level. So far, we see no reason to revise
our April forecast of a 2.5% year-on-year
contraction in 2010. Note that this forecast includes
2% growth vis-à-vis the last quarter of 2009, and
that negative annual growth is due only to a large
negative carryover effect of about 4%. We expect
positive annual growth rates towards the end of this
year.
Chart 1. GDP by expenditure 1Q2007=100,
40
60
80
100
120
1Q 07 1Q 08 1Q 09 1Q 10
GDP Households cons.
Government cons. Gross fixed capital
Exports Imports Source: CSBL
Chart 1. GDP by expenditure 1Q2007=100, s.a.
A quick browse through GDP by expenditure data
seems to suggest that growth was due to the wrong
reasons – exports contracted while consumption
picked up. Exports are reported to have shrunk by
2% (all data in this paragraph are quarter on
quarter, seasonally adjusted), while household
consumption inched up by 0.7%. Even government
spending was up by 0.1% despite all the fiscal
consolidation efforts, and imports were up by 8.6%.
Almost all growth came from inventories (reported
as a single entry, together with errors and
omissions) whose contribution to quarterly growth
was a staggering 6.3 percentage points. While the
Economic Research Department. Swedbank AB. SE-105 34 Stockholm. Phone +46 8 5859 1000.
E-mail: ek.sekr@swedbank.com www.swedbank.com
Legally responsible publisher: Cecilia Hermansson, +46 8 5859 1588.
Mārtiņš Kazāks, +371 6744 5859. Lija Strašuna, +371 6744 5875. Dainis Stikuts, +371 6744 5844.
2. Latvian Economy
Monthly newsletter from Swedbank’s Economic Research Department, continued
No. 2 • June 2010
2 (4)
speed of contraction in gross fixed capital formation
halved, it was still in deep freeze – down by 6%.
Chart 2. GDP by expenditure, contributions
percentage points
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1Q 09 2Q 09 3Q 09 4Q 09 1Q 10
Households cons. Government cons.
Gross fixed capital Inventories and errors
Exports Imports Source: CSBL
A more careful look, however, suggests that such a
conclusion is misguided and the economy is not
back to its old tricks of unsustainable, domestic
demand-driven growth. First, we are likely to see
some data revisions. Second, the underlying growth
is export driven.
Significant data revisions are likely
For instance, it is difficult to rationalize the
dynamics of the government spending deflator –
during the 1st
quarter of 2010 it is reported to have
grown by over 24% quarter on quarter, which is by
far the highest climb over the past decade
(including the boom years). At the same time, public
sector gross wages, which are typically used as a
guide for this deflator, were contracting by 3.7%. If
deflator dynamics is put more in line with the wage
growth pattern and if government consumption in
current prices remains unchanged, impressive real
consumption growth would result, which would be
at odds with fiscal consolidation? Data revisions are
likely to address such inconsistencies. Possible
directions for revisions are lower government
spending, higher investment, and/or higher
household consumption.
One must also mention the seasonality filter – with
such sharp structural changes and business cycle
volatility, its pattern is unlikely to remain unaffected.
Further quarters will provide more information on
the changing shape of seasonality and will ex post
revise the past data.
Grey economy supports consumption
Why is it that in the 1st
quarter employment and
wages were falling, unemployment benefits were
running out for an increasing number of long-term
unemployed, and the credit stock was shrinking, but
household consumption was recovering? Better
household consumption is no data fluke and is well
backed up by, e.g., improving retail trade turnover
and retail sector business confidence. Of course, as
they were getting used to a recessionary
environment and with the contraction speed
slowing, households may have released some of
their precautionary savings held in cash at home.
We see this in the growth of household bank
deposits.
Chart 3. Consumption over available
resources*, % of consumption
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1Q 06 1Q 07 1Q 08 1Q 09 1Q 10
Source: Swedbank estimates
* Consumption + Change in deposits stock - Income -
Change in loans stock
Chart 4. Retail trade turnover, %
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Jan.07 Jan.08 Jan.09 Jan.10
mom yoy
Source: CSBL
Yet, we believe that a major reason for
consumption growth is the widening of the grey
economy. Income tax evasion boosts incomes,
which translate into higher consumption. This
hypothesis is supported by tax revenue data – the
value-added tax registered improvement whereas
3. Latvian Economy
Monthly newsletter from Swedbank’s Economic Research Department, continued
No. 2 • June 2010
3 (4)
social security contributions, which directly depend
on wage income, shrunk. A survey made by the
State Employment Agency earlier in the year found
that about 20% of those found illegally employed
were in the books as receivers of unemployment
benefits. The widening of the grey economy should
not be tolerated and requires immediate and
decisive efforts by the government.
Imports are export driven
What drove import growth? We believe that it was
significantly pushed up by export industries
rebuilding their foreign input inventories. Balance
sheet analysis shows that, due to a lack of funding,
export industries heavily depleted their inventories
over the last year and, with the recovery
strengthening, were increasingly squeezed on their
own deliveries by lack of inputs. To address this
problem, inventories were rebuilt. In the coming
quarters, this activity is most likely to slow because
the inventory deficit gap must have narrowed.
Chart 6. Goods exports Jan.2009 - Apr.2010,
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Foodand
agricultural
products
Wood,etc
Machines
and
equipment
Metaletc
Chemical
products
Mineral
products
Others
Source: CSBL
Chart 5. Goods exports Jan.2009 - Apr.2010, LVL
2009 2010
Analysis of GDP by value added shows that export
industries remain the key driver of recovery – while
all nontradable sectors in the 1st
quarter continued
to report negative year-on-year growth rates, for
traditional tradable sectors these rates were
positive.1
After a rather bleak performance early in
2010, goods exports have been picking up each
month, in current prices growing by 33% year on
year in April (the latest data available so far). Export
order flows suggest that good performance will
continue. On the other hand, exports of services
have seen a gradual worsening, contracting by 9%
year on year in April due to tough regional
competition.
1
Seasonally adjusted data by industries are not reported;
therefore, we must use annual growth rates here.
Investment still weak, but infrastructure
and export sectors to become more active
Why is gross fixed capital formation so weak? It has
shrunk by close to 60% from its peak in mid-2007
and by about 45% year on year in the 1st
quarter of
2010. This fall is very much due to a stalling real
estate market, formerly a major contributor. With
economic activity low, manufacturing capacity
utilisation is gradually rising but still at low levels on
average. This situation is, however, changing.
While housing activities will certainly take years to
develop, the government has taken steps to speed
up absorption of EU structural funds to improve
infrastructure. Capacity utilisation data often are like
an average temperature in a hospital – they hide
hot spots. With typically very slow insolvency
procedures, industrial capacity often gets stuck in
between owners. By using industry average, the
data often underestimate actual capacity utilisation.
For instance, wood industry volume since early
2009 has grown by nearly 60%, recovering more
than it lost during the crisis. Given that not all the
companies survived the recession (some currently
have idle plants but not gone bankrupt yet),
capacity utilisation for survivals in many cases is
higher than in the boom years. Such (typically
export-oriented) companies are gradually looking
for possibilities to invest. We expect that gross fixed
capital formation will post positive quarterly growth
figures towards the end of this year. Access to
inexpensive funding will be crucial here.
Chart 6. Consumer and business confidence
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Jan.07 Jan.08 Jan.09 Jan.10
Consumer Construction
Manufacturing Retail
Services Source: Eurostat
IMF/EC support programme on track, Latvia
to borrow less
Confidence continues to strengthen, which is a
good indicator of further improvements in economic
activity. Unemployment expectations are also
gradually retreating, as is unemployment itself –
4. Latvian Economy
Monthly newsletter from Swedbank’s Economic Research Department, continued
No. 2 • June 2010
4 (4)
registered unemployment in mid-June was down to
15.8% from its peak of 17.3% in March.
Despite indications of widening income tax evasion,
government tax revenues are in line with the plan
as, e.g., consumption taxes perform better than
forecast. Thus, the overall fiscal situation is stable.
The recent IMF and EC joint review mission in June
concluded that good progress is being made in
stabilizing the economy. It was agreed that Latvia
should continue the programme, by and large
following the same criteria as previously agreed.
The budget deficit is not to exceed 8.5% of GDP
this year, 6% in 2011, and 3% in 2012. It was
agreed that next year’s budget must include fiscal
consolidation of LVL 395-440 million, about 3.5% of
GDP. Part of this will be covered by the growing
economy, but significant cuts in spending will still be
necessary. More revenue is to be raised by
eradicating the grey economy and raising taxes.
The draft plan to reduce the grey economy
2
was
made public in mid-June. It makes a better use of
the “stick and carrot” strategy and promises to yield
better results than any of the previous attempts.
One of its weak points is its feeble integration with
the proposed changes in tax policy. This needs to
be improved. The current draft paper on tax policy
change3
goes only halfway in shifting the tax
burden away from labour income and toward
2
http://www.fm.gov.lv/?eng/news/49982
3
Available in Latvian
http://www.fm.gov.lv/?lat/aktualitates/jaunumi/49836/
consumption and real estate. The final version of
this paper is due by end-June, but it is unlikely that
we shall see a “true” version of it until after the
October general elections. Such a delayed wake-up
call for more fiscal consolidation down the line,
coupled with the expected fiscal tightening in the
rest of the EU towards the end of 2010, is likely to
slow somewhat the speed of recovery late this year
and/ or early next year.
Due to its strong financial position, the Latvian
government will postpone and perhaps reduce its
borrowing within the IMF/ EC-coordinated support
programme. This year, it aims to draw only the
amount available from the IMF/ EC and World Bank
(about EUR 400 million total), and take future
drawing decisions on a review-by-review basis. The
government intends to use EUR 1 billion from the
Nordic countries as a credit line only when
necessary, rather than keep all the allotment at the
Treasury and pay interest on extra reserves.
The recent progress of Estonia toward attaining
euro membership by next year should provide an
additional boost for Latvia to get its economy going
and target 2014 as the year to join the euro.
Mārtiņš Kazāks
Swedbank
Economic Research Department
Balasta dambis 1a, Riga, LV 1048, Latvia
www.swedbank.lv
Martiņš Kazāks, +371 6744 5859
Dainis Stikuts, +371 6744 5844
Lija Strašuna, +371 6744 5875
Legally responsible publisher
Cecilia Hermansson, +46 88 5859 1588
Swedbank’s monthly newsletter is published as a service to our customers. We believe that
we have used reliable sources and methods in the preparation of the analyses reported in
this publication. However, we cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the report
and cannot be held responsible for any error or omission in the underlying material or its
use. Readers are encouraged to base any (investment) decisions on other material as well.
Neither Swedbank nor its employees may be held responsible for losses or damages,
direct or indirect, owing to any errors or omissions in Swedbank’s monthly newsletter.
2
http://www.fm.gov.lv/?eng/news/49982
3
Available in Latvian
http://www.fm.gov.lv/?lat/aktualitates/jaunumi/49836/
Abbreviations:
EC – European Commission
EU – European Union
IMF – International Monetary Fund
CSBL– Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia