- The document provides an asset allocation perspective from J.P. Morgan on global markets in May 2012.
- Political risks in Europe have increased, forcing a reduction in long equity positions while maintaining credit exposure.
- Weaker Chinese economic data has led to a reduction in the Q2 growth forecast from 7.8% to 7%. Global growth forecasts remain unchanged.
- Near-term downside risks exist, but signals over 3-6 months remain positive, suggesting maintaining upside exposure to equities and credit while keeping overall tactical risk below average.
- Sell-side strategists have moved to a record 40% allocation to bonds as bond yields hit record lows, while equity funds have a record high cash allocation of almost 5%.
- The document argues this extreme bullish sentiment toward bonds and cash could present a contrarian investment opportunity in stocks.
- Valuations suggest stocks are undervalued relative to bonds, as stock dividends are increasing while bond yields are at historic lows and do not compensate for inflation.
The document provides a monthly market outlook and investment directions for June 2012. It summarizes that the global economy recovery is threatened by issues in Europe. The outlook expects slow but positive global growth if policymakers address fiscal issues, but risks remain from a eurozone crisis or lack of US fiscal policy action. The recommendations are for a defensive portfolio positioning including high-quality dividend stocks, defensive sectors, and minimum volatility funds. Fixed income preferences include US investment grade and municipal bonds.
The document summarizes recent market contradictions and distortions that are contributing to investor risk aversion and confusion. Government interventions like stimulus programs, quantitative easing, and bailouts have generated unintended side effects in markets. Politicians debate the merits of intervention versus free markets. Falling stock prices may paradoxically reduce risk as valuations decline, setting up markets for better long-term returns according to some analysts. Overall, distortions and political debates are causing uncertainty, stagnation, and falling stock prices.
1) The editorial discusses recent economic developments and provides investment recommendations.
2) It notes that the US and Canadian economies are recovering slowly, Europe continues to struggle with debt problems, and China is slowing after years of tightening.
3) The editorial recommends a core portfolio of high-yielding stocks like REITs, utilities, telecoms and pipelines, along with growing companies in various sectors for higher risk.
For the 2nd quarter, Bob Doll, Chief Equity Strategist and Jeff Rosenberg, Chief Investment Strategist for Fixed Income, with BlackRock, believe the backdrop for equities remains supportive, fixed income credit offers more value, and municipal bonds continue to remain attractive relative to taxable fixed income.
The document provides an asset allocation and market outlook for the second quarter of 2009 from BlackRock. It summarizes views on global equity, fixed income, currency and commodity markets. Key points include:
- Equity markets have rallied from oversold levels but volatility will likely continue; higher risk assets should outperform over 2009. Within equities, favor healthcare, energy and technology.
- For fixed income, focus on higher quality investments like agencies and select corporate bonds; municipal bonds remain attractive.
- The US dollar will likely strengthen with risk aversion and weaken with improved risk appetite. Oil prices should rise through 2009 as recovery signs emerge.
Economies worldwide have rebounded since the 2008
Financial Crisis, along with rising global equity and
tightening credit markets. Even the rebound in earnings
growth and profit margins has been remarkable. Yet, the
U.S. economic growth hasn’t broken out as hoped, after
significant global fiscal and monetary stimulus, including
slashing interest rates. Unemployment remains high and
volatility has been unnerving for investors. Learn more at: www.nafcu.org/nifcus
- The Alchemy Capital Management investment fund suffered losses in the fourth quarter of 2007 from hedge fund failures and the effects of the credit crunch. Approximately 40% of the fund's allocation was directly or indirectly linked to credit markets.
- Looking ahead, the fund has reduced its exposure to credit and illiquid securities to below 10% and increased diversification to more market neutral and arbitrage strategies. Volatility is expected to remain high given continued uncertainty in the markets.
- As of January 2008, the fund's strategy allocation was approximately 22.5% in long/short equity, 46% in market neutral, arbitrage and event driven strategies, and the remainder in multi-strategy, global macro, emerging markets and
- Sell-side strategists have moved to a record 40% allocation to bonds as bond yields hit record lows, while equity funds have a record high cash allocation of almost 5%.
- The document argues this extreme bullish sentiment toward bonds and cash could present a contrarian investment opportunity in stocks.
- Valuations suggest stocks are undervalued relative to bonds, as stock dividends are increasing while bond yields are at historic lows and do not compensate for inflation.
The document provides a monthly market outlook and investment directions for June 2012. It summarizes that the global economy recovery is threatened by issues in Europe. The outlook expects slow but positive global growth if policymakers address fiscal issues, but risks remain from a eurozone crisis or lack of US fiscal policy action. The recommendations are for a defensive portfolio positioning including high-quality dividend stocks, defensive sectors, and minimum volatility funds. Fixed income preferences include US investment grade and municipal bonds.
The document summarizes recent market contradictions and distortions that are contributing to investor risk aversion and confusion. Government interventions like stimulus programs, quantitative easing, and bailouts have generated unintended side effects in markets. Politicians debate the merits of intervention versus free markets. Falling stock prices may paradoxically reduce risk as valuations decline, setting up markets for better long-term returns according to some analysts. Overall, distortions and political debates are causing uncertainty, stagnation, and falling stock prices.
1) The editorial discusses recent economic developments and provides investment recommendations.
2) It notes that the US and Canadian economies are recovering slowly, Europe continues to struggle with debt problems, and China is slowing after years of tightening.
3) The editorial recommends a core portfolio of high-yielding stocks like REITs, utilities, telecoms and pipelines, along with growing companies in various sectors for higher risk.
For the 2nd quarter, Bob Doll, Chief Equity Strategist and Jeff Rosenberg, Chief Investment Strategist for Fixed Income, with BlackRock, believe the backdrop for equities remains supportive, fixed income credit offers more value, and municipal bonds continue to remain attractive relative to taxable fixed income.
The document provides an asset allocation and market outlook for the second quarter of 2009 from BlackRock. It summarizes views on global equity, fixed income, currency and commodity markets. Key points include:
- Equity markets have rallied from oversold levels but volatility will likely continue; higher risk assets should outperform over 2009. Within equities, favor healthcare, energy and technology.
- For fixed income, focus on higher quality investments like agencies and select corporate bonds; municipal bonds remain attractive.
- The US dollar will likely strengthen with risk aversion and weaken with improved risk appetite. Oil prices should rise through 2009 as recovery signs emerge.
Economies worldwide have rebounded since the 2008
Financial Crisis, along with rising global equity and
tightening credit markets. Even the rebound in earnings
growth and profit margins has been remarkable. Yet, the
U.S. economic growth hasn’t broken out as hoped, after
significant global fiscal and monetary stimulus, including
slashing interest rates. Unemployment remains high and
volatility has been unnerving for investors. Learn more at: www.nafcu.org/nifcus
- The Alchemy Capital Management investment fund suffered losses in the fourth quarter of 2007 from hedge fund failures and the effects of the credit crunch. Approximately 40% of the fund's allocation was directly or indirectly linked to credit markets.
- Looking ahead, the fund has reduced its exposure to credit and illiquid securities to below 10% and increased diversification to more market neutral and arbitrage strategies. Volatility is expected to remain high given continued uncertainty in the markets.
- As of January 2008, the fund's strategy allocation was approximately 22.5% in long/short equity, 46% in market neutral, arbitrage and event driven strategies, and the remainder in multi-strategy, global macro, emerging markets and
Warren Buffett and Bill Gross, two legendary investors, disagree on bonds. Buffett sees bonds as risky in times of inflation while Gross favors bonds in the short term due to low interest rates. Their views may differ based on timeframe, with Buffett looking 7-10 years out and Gross a couple years. Additionally, indexes may not fully reflect market performance due to decisions around their construction.
Mid year outlook market perspectives july 2012 finalRankia
The document provides an outlook for the second half of 2012. It discusses that the global economy remains in a slow recovery threatened by the ongoing European crisis. The US economy is expected to continue modest growth of around 2% for the rest of the year. However, risks include the potential "fiscal cliff" facing the US and uncertainty around resolving Europe's banking and debt issues, which could trigger a global recession if not addressed. The outlook remains cautious given these geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
As Fed tapering unfolds, we expect to see stronger growth from developed markets, while emerging markets in aggregate may experience further currency and capital market weakness. In the United States, declining labor participation continues to drive falling unemployment figures, and may harbor the beginning of a wage inflation surprise.
• We expect credit, liquidity, and prepayment risks will continue to
be rewarded by the market in the months ahead, while interestrate
risk remains unattractive due to its asymmetric risk profile.
Chief Investment Officer Ben Pace of Deutsche Bank presents on the state of the world economy and how it will effect luxury real estate prices in 2012 and beyond. From The Key 2012, luxury real estate conference by Concierge Auctions.
The stock market rose sharply in the first quarter of 2011, with the S&P 500 increasing 5.4%. Commodity prices also increased, driven in part by political instability in the Middle East, which caused oil prices to rise over 16% and settle above $100 per barrel. The US dollar continued to weaken against other major currencies during the quarter. Investor fear, as measured by the volatility index, ended the quarter flat despite events that caused spikes in concern during the period. Overall, strong economic growth and expected corporate earnings seemed to outweigh geopolitical and disaster related worries in the markets.
The document discusses Putnam's outlook on various fixed income asset classes in light of the Federal Reserve signaling that it may begin tapering its quantitative easing program. It finds that while interest rates may remain volatile in the near future, many spread sectors now offer attractive risk-adjusted returns. Specifically, it believes mortgage-backed securities, high yield bonds, bank loans, and select investment grade corporate bonds in sectors like utilities and energy provide opportunities for investors. While term structure risk from rising rates remains, security selection and tactical strategies can help add value.
No bubble trouble; stocks are still reasonably priced. This credit cycle has unique characteristics that continue to make high-yield bonds attractive. Interest-rate volatility poses greater risk than higher rates themselves.
OFIP Q2 2010 - Security In An Insecure Worldbwoyat
Brent Woyat discusses principles of value investing outlined by Benjamin Graham in a 1963 talk titled "Securities in an Insecure World". Graham emphasized 3 principles: 1) Only invest amounts you can tolerate fluctuations in, 2) Paying a reasonable price is key, 3) Maintain a long-term focus and sticking to a plan. Woyat applies these principles in discussing recent market volatility and positioning portfolios defensively with sectors like consumer staples that benefit from economic slowdowns while maintaining a long-term bullish outlook. Portfolio returns remained respectable despite recent market declines.
JPM Prime Brokerage Global Hedge Fund Trends September 2013Brian Shapiro
- Hedge funds posted an aggregate loss of -0.73% in August as risk assets sold off broadly due to renewed macro concerns. Event driven strategies fared best with a loss of -0.04% while global macro suffered most with a decline of -1.20%.
- Gross leverage for equity strategies on JPMorgan's prime brokerage platform fell from 1.84 to 1.82 as net exposure declined from 0.78 to 0.74.
- Several large endowments are shifting exposures from hedge funds to long-only strategies in search of isolating alpha generation.
2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlooksumguyatvt
Uncertainty overshadows an improving economy. The economy continues to recover from the worse downturn since the Great Depression, which caused the S&P 500 to lose more than 1/2 of its value between October 2007 and March 2009. Although things are better now, this recovery has taken longer than many of us would have liked. As a result, I think we\’re still at least a little nervous about the future and uncertain about how to prepare our portfolios to face what may be down the road. In this presentation, I discuss what we at Wells Fargo Advisors see ahead for the economy, the domestic and international equity markets, fixed income investments, and commodities.
The global economy is improving overall, with the U.S. and U.K. leading the way. We expect higher GDP growth from the U.S. to support risk assets in the third quarter. We continue to expect a rise in U.S. interest rates in 2014, though eurozone policy may help slow a near-term increase. We favor credit, prepayment, and liquidity risks, which we express in allocations to mezzanine CMBS, peripheral European sovereigns, select EM sovereigns, and interest-only (IO) CMOs.
The document discusses the economic outlook for 2010, noting that while markets are expected to perform well initially due to policy "tailwinds", challenges are anticipated in the second half of the year as these tailwinds fade or become headwinds. It recommends overweighting stocks, cyclical sectors, and emerging markets initially, but becoming more defensive later in 2010.
U.S. equities continued their impressive advance, with
no significant declines during the quarter. In Europe, policy changes may function as an important tailwind for growth and market performance. Globally, M&A activity has been on the rise, giving a boost to equity prices across the market-cap spectrum. The current bull market has been significant — in terms of both length and magnitude.
The document provides an update on risk management from Altrius Capital Management for Q2 2012. It discusses rising global event risks to economic growth from issues like the US fiscal cliff, problems in Europe with the Euro and sovereign debt crisis, and a potential slowdown in China. The update also covers Altrius' strategic response to increased market volatility through tactical portfolio shifts to mitigate risk. Finally, it emphasizes Altrius' commitment to risk-adjusted returns through low-volatility strategies.
The monthly market outlook report reiterates a view of a cyclical growth recovery starting in the third quarter of 2009, followed by a moderate structural recovery. While a strong business investment recovery is unlikely due to low capacity utilization and high costs, earnings results exceeded expectations in the second quarter due to tight cost controls. Reasonable valuations and cyclical improvement should support further equity gains.
The quarterly market review summarizes market performance in the first quarter of 2013. Global markets posted modest gains, with U.S. stocks outperforming international markets. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reached new all-time highs. Ten-year returns remain positive across most asset classes and geographic regions, reinforcing the benefits of diversification and long-term investing.
This newsletter discusses stocks as a long-term investment option despite market volatility. While 2011 saw fear in the markets similar to 2008, stocks have historically provided higher real returns than other assets over periods of 20 years or more. Specifically, stocks have returned an average of 6.7% annually after taxes compared to just 2.8% for bonds and 1.7% for treasury bills from 1871-2006. Currently, dividend-paying stocks appear reasonably valued relative to low interest rates and offer higher yields than GICs. The newsletter recommends owning dividend stocks as a way to earn income and hedge against inflation over the long run.
The Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke outlined two major risks facing the US economy: 1) the ongoing Eurozone fiscal and banking crisis and its potential effects on the US, and 2) the unsustainable path of the US fiscal situation including the looming "fiscal cliff". While the US has little control over Europe, the fiscal cliff is within Congress's power to address. If no action is taken, the automatic spending cuts and tax increases could throw the economy back into recession according to estimates. Bernanke stated the Fed is ready to take further action if needed to support the recovery.
Signs of inflation will raise the stakes for the Fed’s policy communications. Favorable conditions for leveraged strategies could reverse quickly. Reasonable valuations and the Fed’s policy goals continue to support risk assets.
The document summarizes economic concerns from a single day in May 2012. It discusses Greece potentially leaving the eurozone and going into economic collapse. It also mentions the weakening European economy, troubles in the European commercial real estate market, and issues with J.P. Morgan that were hurting market sentiment. However, the document expresses that diversification may help investors weather volatility and that the outlook is better than 2008-2009 despite some challenges still existing.
1) The document summarizes the outlooks of various experts on the Asian G3 bond markets in the coming year, with outlooks ranging from -1 (most negative) to 2 (most positive).
2) While some experts are positive due to attractive valuations and supportive economic growth, others express concerns about rising leverage, high supply, tightening conditions, and volatility due to tapering of US QE.
3) Most experts have neutral or cautious outlooks, expecting continued volatility but also opportunities for selective investors. Concerns include slowing growth, tighter global financial conditions, and uncertainty around US monetary policy.
Warren Buffett and Bill Gross, two legendary investors, disagree on bonds. Buffett sees bonds as risky in times of inflation while Gross favors bonds in the short term due to low interest rates. Their views may differ based on timeframe, with Buffett looking 7-10 years out and Gross a couple years. Additionally, indexes may not fully reflect market performance due to decisions around their construction.
Mid year outlook market perspectives july 2012 finalRankia
The document provides an outlook for the second half of 2012. It discusses that the global economy remains in a slow recovery threatened by the ongoing European crisis. The US economy is expected to continue modest growth of around 2% for the rest of the year. However, risks include the potential "fiscal cliff" facing the US and uncertainty around resolving Europe's banking and debt issues, which could trigger a global recession if not addressed. The outlook remains cautious given these geopolitical and economic uncertainties.
As Fed tapering unfolds, we expect to see stronger growth from developed markets, while emerging markets in aggregate may experience further currency and capital market weakness. In the United States, declining labor participation continues to drive falling unemployment figures, and may harbor the beginning of a wage inflation surprise.
• We expect credit, liquidity, and prepayment risks will continue to
be rewarded by the market in the months ahead, while interestrate
risk remains unattractive due to its asymmetric risk profile.
Chief Investment Officer Ben Pace of Deutsche Bank presents on the state of the world economy and how it will effect luxury real estate prices in 2012 and beyond. From The Key 2012, luxury real estate conference by Concierge Auctions.
The stock market rose sharply in the first quarter of 2011, with the S&P 500 increasing 5.4%. Commodity prices also increased, driven in part by political instability in the Middle East, which caused oil prices to rise over 16% and settle above $100 per barrel. The US dollar continued to weaken against other major currencies during the quarter. Investor fear, as measured by the volatility index, ended the quarter flat despite events that caused spikes in concern during the period. Overall, strong economic growth and expected corporate earnings seemed to outweigh geopolitical and disaster related worries in the markets.
The document discusses Putnam's outlook on various fixed income asset classes in light of the Federal Reserve signaling that it may begin tapering its quantitative easing program. It finds that while interest rates may remain volatile in the near future, many spread sectors now offer attractive risk-adjusted returns. Specifically, it believes mortgage-backed securities, high yield bonds, bank loans, and select investment grade corporate bonds in sectors like utilities and energy provide opportunities for investors. While term structure risk from rising rates remains, security selection and tactical strategies can help add value.
No bubble trouble; stocks are still reasonably priced. This credit cycle has unique characteristics that continue to make high-yield bonds attractive. Interest-rate volatility poses greater risk than higher rates themselves.
OFIP Q2 2010 - Security In An Insecure Worldbwoyat
Brent Woyat discusses principles of value investing outlined by Benjamin Graham in a 1963 talk titled "Securities in an Insecure World". Graham emphasized 3 principles: 1) Only invest amounts you can tolerate fluctuations in, 2) Paying a reasonable price is key, 3) Maintain a long-term focus and sticking to a plan. Woyat applies these principles in discussing recent market volatility and positioning portfolios defensively with sectors like consumer staples that benefit from economic slowdowns while maintaining a long-term bullish outlook. Portfolio returns remained respectable despite recent market declines.
JPM Prime Brokerage Global Hedge Fund Trends September 2013Brian Shapiro
- Hedge funds posted an aggregate loss of -0.73% in August as risk assets sold off broadly due to renewed macro concerns. Event driven strategies fared best with a loss of -0.04% while global macro suffered most with a decline of -1.20%.
- Gross leverage for equity strategies on JPMorgan's prime brokerage platform fell from 1.84 to 1.82 as net exposure declined from 0.78 to 0.74.
- Several large endowments are shifting exposures from hedge funds to long-only strategies in search of isolating alpha generation.
2012 Midyear Economic And Market Outlooksumguyatvt
Uncertainty overshadows an improving economy. The economy continues to recover from the worse downturn since the Great Depression, which caused the S&P 500 to lose more than 1/2 of its value between October 2007 and March 2009. Although things are better now, this recovery has taken longer than many of us would have liked. As a result, I think we\’re still at least a little nervous about the future and uncertain about how to prepare our portfolios to face what may be down the road. In this presentation, I discuss what we at Wells Fargo Advisors see ahead for the economy, the domestic and international equity markets, fixed income investments, and commodities.
The global economy is improving overall, with the U.S. and U.K. leading the way. We expect higher GDP growth from the U.S. to support risk assets in the third quarter. We continue to expect a rise in U.S. interest rates in 2014, though eurozone policy may help slow a near-term increase. We favor credit, prepayment, and liquidity risks, which we express in allocations to mezzanine CMBS, peripheral European sovereigns, select EM sovereigns, and interest-only (IO) CMOs.
The document discusses the economic outlook for 2010, noting that while markets are expected to perform well initially due to policy "tailwinds", challenges are anticipated in the second half of the year as these tailwinds fade or become headwinds. It recommends overweighting stocks, cyclical sectors, and emerging markets initially, but becoming more defensive later in 2010.
U.S. equities continued their impressive advance, with
no significant declines during the quarter. In Europe, policy changes may function as an important tailwind for growth and market performance. Globally, M&A activity has been on the rise, giving a boost to equity prices across the market-cap spectrum. The current bull market has been significant — in terms of both length and magnitude.
The document provides an update on risk management from Altrius Capital Management for Q2 2012. It discusses rising global event risks to economic growth from issues like the US fiscal cliff, problems in Europe with the Euro and sovereign debt crisis, and a potential slowdown in China. The update also covers Altrius' strategic response to increased market volatility through tactical portfolio shifts to mitigate risk. Finally, it emphasizes Altrius' commitment to risk-adjusted returns through low-volatility strategies.
The monthly market outlook report reiterates a view of a cyclical growth recovery starting in the third quarter of 2009, followed by a moderate structural recovery. While a strong business investment recovery is unlikely due to low capacity utilization and high costs, earnings results exceeded expectations in the second quarter due to tight cost controls. Reasonable valuations and cyclical improvement should support further equity gains.
The quarterly market review summarizes market performance in the first quarter of 2013. Global markets posted modest gains, with U.S. stocks outperforming international markets. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average reached new all-time highs. Ten-year returns remain positive across most asset classes and geographic regions, reinforcing the benefits of diversification and long-term investing.
This newsletter discusses stocks as a long-term investment option despite market volatility. While 2011 saw fear in the markets similar to 2008, stocks have historically provided higher real returns than other assets over periods of 20 years or more. Specifically, stocks have returned an average of 6.7% annually after taxes compared to just 2.8% for bonds and 1.7% for treasury bills from 1871-2006. Currently, dividend-paying stocks appear reasonably valued relative to low interest rates and offer higher yields than GICs. The newsletter recommends owning dividend stocks as a way to earn income and hedge against inflation over the long run.
The Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke outlined two major risks facing the US economy: 1) the ongoing Eurozone fiscal and banking crisis and its potential effects on the US, and 2) the unsustainable path of the US fiscal situation including the looming "fiscal cliff". While the US has little control over Europe, the fiscal cliff is within Congress's power to address. If no action is taken, the automatic spending cuts and tax increases could throw the economy back into recession according to estimates. Bernanke stated the Fed is ready to take further action if needed to support the recovery.
Signs of inflation will raise the stakes for the Fed’s policy communications. Favorable conditions for leveraged strategies could reverse quickly. Reasonable valuations and the Fed’s policy goals continue to support risk assets.
The document summarizes economic concerns from a single day in May 2012. It discusses Greece potentially leaving the eurozone and going into economic collapse. It also mentions the weakening European economy, troubles in the European commercial real estate market, and issues with J.P. Morgan that were hurting market sentiment. However, the document expresses that diversification may help investors weather volatility and that the outlook is better than 2008-2009 despite some challenges still existing.
1) The document summarizes the outlooks of various experts on the Asian G3 bond markets in the coming year, with outlooks ranging from -1 (most negative) to 2 (most positive).
2) While some experts are positive due to attractive valuations and supportive economic growth, others express concerns about rising leverage, high supply, tightening conditions, and volatility due to tapering of US QE.
3) Most experts have neutral or cautious outlooks, expecting continued volatility but also opportunities for selective investors. Concerns include slowing growth, tighter global financial conditions, and uncertainty around US monetary policy.
This document provides a summary of recent economic developments and risks. Key points include: risk appetite has revived in global markets but growth is slowing; US data shows continued recovery in employment, housing and manufacturing; China's leadership transition is complete; the US debt ceiling could pose problems in the summer; Cyprus received a bailout but its terms set a precedent for depositors to share losses in future bank bailouts.
The document summarizes several shocks that occurred on a single day in May 2012, including Greece potentially leaving the Eurozone, the eurozone nearing recession, troubles in the European commercial real estate market, losses for J.P. Morgan from speculative bets, an upcoming debt ceiling showdown in the U.S., and heightened currency market volatility. In response, the author's firm has positioned its portfolios to have little exposure to Greece, be underweight Europe and the euro, and underweight U.S. Treasuries. While continued challenges exist, the author believes diversification may benefit investors and that progress is being made in addressing issues plaguing the global banking sector and European economies.
The Global Portfolio Strategies Group's economic outlook notes that global equity markets peaked in early April before falling sharply in May, as they had anticipated. While not compelled to reduce equity exposures, they recommend maintaining a neutral stance given ongoing economic and political uncertainties. They continue to favor U.S. equities over international ones, seeing the U.S. economy in better shape despite political uncertainty. Emerging markets have faced challenges from slowing growth and currency declines, but aggressive policy actions and cheaper valuations may provide a boost going forward. Markets are expected to remain volatile in this environment of uncertainties over the European situation, U.S. economy, and upcoming elections.
The Global Portfolio Strategies Group's economic outlook predicts continued uncertainty and choppy markets. While U.S. fundamentals remain relatively strong, political uncertainties could trigger recession. Emerging markets face slowing growth and currency declines but improving conditions may boost their economies and cheapen their equities. Investors face many questions over the summer including the durability of Europe's latest agreement and outcomes of the U.S. election, keeping markets volatile.
The Global Portfolio Strategies Group's economic outlook predicts continued challenges in global markets. While U.S. fundamentals remain relatively strong, political uncertainties could trigger recession. In Europe, serious issues threaten break-up scenarios and economic struggles persist in the U.K. and emerging markets. The investing environment remains difficult with many questions unanswered around the U.S. economy, European agreements, and upcoming elections. As a result, markets are expected to remain volatile in the near term.
The document analyzes economic conditions in several countries. For the United States, it notes that private sector deleveraging has depressed demand, reflecting a collateral crisis in housing and shadow banking. However, the recovery in housing prices may allow households to finish reducing debt levels and make credit demand more responsive to policy, helping the economy break out of a liquidity trap.
- Merrill Lynch may have conflicts of interest due to business relationships with covered companies that could affect research report objectivity. Investors should consider this report as one factor among many.
- Independent, third-party research is available to Merrill Lynch customers in the US at no cost if such research exists for covered companies.
- The document provides analysis on risks to trust banks and asset managers from a potential US recession and equity market correction, but concludes both groups should continue outperforming the S&P 500 and credit-sensitive financials in the near-term. Selectivity is key among asset managers at this point.
[JP] Strtaegy Brief / Global Convertible Opportunities / December 2015NN Investment Partners
1) The document describes the NN Global Convertible Opportunities fund, which invests in convertible bonds.
2) It aims to outperform its benchmark index by 200 basis points annually through a process of bottom-up credit analysis and selecting bonds with optimal upside potential.
3) In December, the fund returned -1.47%, underperforming its benchmark by -0.03% as markets weakened amid disappointing central bank actions and slowing growth in China.
[LATAM EN] Strategy Brief / Global Convertible Opportunities / December 2015NN Investment Partners
1) The document describes the NN Global Convertible Opportunities fund, which invests in convertible bonds.
2) It aims to outperform its benchmark index by 200 basis points annually through a process of bottom-up credit analysis and selecting bonds with optimal upside potential.
3) In December, the fund returned -1.47%, underperforming its benchmark by -0.03% as markets weakened amid disappointing central bank actions and slowing growth in China.
[EN] Strategy Brief / Global Convertible Opportunities / December 2015NN Investment Partners
The document provides information on the NN (L) Global Convertible Opportunities fund including:
1) The fund invests in a portfolio of global convertible bonds with the objective of outperforming its benchmark index by 2% annually.
2) It uses a theme-based approach to security selection focused on mixed convertibles with downside protection and equity upside potential.
3) In December 2015, the fund returned -1.47% compared to the benchmark return of -1.44%, underperforming by 0.03%. Key detractors were positions in Taiyo Yuden and Iconix.
[LU] Strategy Brief / Global Convertible Opportunities / December 2015NN Investment Partners
1) The document describes the NN Global Convertible Opportunities fund, which invests in convertible bonds.
2) It aims to outperform its benchmark index by 200 basis points annually through a process of bottom-up credit analysis and selecting bonds with optimal upside potential.
3) In December, the fund returned -1.47%, underperforming its benchmark by -0.03% as markets weakened amid disappointing central bank actions and slowing growth in China.
[CH] Strategy Brief / Global Convertible Opportunities / December 2015NN Investment Partners
1) The document describes the NN Global Convertible Opportunities fund, which invests in convertible bonds.
2) It aims to outperform its benchmark index by 200 basis points annually through a process of bottom-up credit analysis and theme-based equity selection.
3) In December 2015, the fund returned -1.47%, underperforming its benchmark by -0.03% as markets weakened amid disappointing central bank actions.
[UK] Strategy Brief / Global Convertible Opportunities / December 2015NN Investment Partners
The document provides information on the NN (L) Global Convertible Opportunities fund including:
1) The fund invests long-only in a portfolio of thoroughly researched convertible bonds from screened issuers chosen for their equity potential and convex structure.
2) The objective is to outperform the global convertible universe (measured by the Thomson Reuters Global Focus Index – Hedged) by 200bps per year through a process designed to capture downside protection and equity upside participation.
3) In December, the fund returned -1.47% compared to the benchmark return of -1.44%, underperforming by -0.03% with negative contributions from holdings in Taiyo Yuden
The document discusses recent market volatility and the economic outlook. It notes that markets have declined due to ongoing issues with European debt and weakening global growth. While the risk of a US recession has risen, the US is expected to avoid a severe recession as key economic indicators remain above levels seen during the financial crisis. The document advocates for long-term investment strategies and cautions against abandoning equities due to short-term volatility, noting that markets have already priced in a significant drop in corporate earnings.
The 2023 investment outlook document discusses three main themes: navigating the polycrisis of inflation, recession and financial stability risks; implications of dollar dominance; and China's economic transition. It sees an 80% chance of a recession in major economies in 2023, with a cyclical shallow recession in the US as most likely. Inflation will remain elevated due to structural factors. Central banks face challenges in controlling inflation without causing severe economic downturns. The strong dollar poses headwinds globally. China is expected to gradually ease COVID restrictions and transition to a new growth model under its new leadership.
The document provides a quarterly analysis of market conditions from a senior analyst. It finds that while technical indicators are moderately bullish, sentiment has shifted to pessimism after the market correction. Liquidity remains sufficient due to central bank intervention, but credit growth is modest and not very productive. The fundamentals are concerning as economic reports have disappointed and earnings warnings have increased, suggesting growth needs to pick up in the second half for a positive outlook.
Morgan Stanley research raises the probability of Greece exiting the eurozone from 25% to 35% and believes the ramifications could be more serious than anticipated. If Greece exits, contagion may follow countries like Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland. Key policy responses that could limit escalation include more aggressive ECB action, bank recapitalization, a federal deposit guarantee, fiscal union, and the ECB becoming lender of last resort. Morgan Stanley analysts provide views on risks to European banks from funding stresses and credit squeezes. If contagion follows a Greek exit, safe haven assets like Treasuries and gold ETFs may rally.
This document identifies 10 trends shaping the investment management industry in a world of low interest rates, high volatility, and high correlations between asset classes. The key trends are the search for yield driving demand for credit and dividend-paying stocks; the debate around whether equities can still outperform with their high volatility; the growth of risk-minimizing multi-asset strategies; the shift to passive index funds and ETFs; and declining performance of hedge funds. Understanding how investor behavior is changing in response to these trends will be important for investment managers and can provide insights into future asset prices.
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Will Europe be able to circle the wagons? (third party)
1. Global Asset Allocation
J.P. Morgan Chase Bank NA,
J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd.
May 11, 2012
The J.P. Morgan View
Will Europe be able to circle the wagons?
Jan LoeysAC
• Asset Allocation –– Greater political risk in Europe force us to reduce equity (1-212) 834-5874
longs, while staying in credit, in our asset allocation portfolio. jan.loeys@jpmorgan.com
• Economics –– Weaker data for April delay the expected bounce back in the John Normand
Chinese economy. Global growth forecasts unchanged from January. (44-20) 7325-5222
john.normand@jpmorgan.com
• Fixed Income –– We add to Euro area hedges.
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou
• Equities –– Stay long US vs. Euro area equities. (44-20) 7777-0386
nikolaos.panigirtzoglou@jpmorgan.com
• Credit –– We continue to favour US credit and hold NEXGEM markets in EM.
• Foreign exchange –– Add to USD longs, as adverse Greek news should push Seamus Mac Gorain
the euro down much more than upside created by positive Greek news. (44-20) 7777-2906
seamus.macgorain@jpmorgan.com
• Commodities –– Higher oil prices in H2, but with elevated two-sided risks.
Matthew Lehmann
(44-20) 7777-1830
• Equity and commodity markets are down this week, and bonds and the dollar matthew.m.lehmann@jpmorgan.com
are up on political paralysis in Greece and weaker Chinese economic data.
Credit, in contrast, performed better than other risk markets with spreads only Leo Evans
(44-20) 7742-2537
a few basis points wider, largely offset by lower underlying bond yields. leonard.a.evans@jpmorgan.com
• Over the past month, equities are now down some 7%, though still up on the
year (chart on right). This is close to the limit of what one can call a profit-
YTD returns through May 10
taking correction, and now risks turning into a broader and deeper downside %, equities are in lighter colour.
move. Relative to where we were a few weeks ago, there is now a near-term
downside risk, but signals for 3-6 months out still sound positive to us. This S&P500
suggests retaining upside exposure to equities and credit, while flat on US High Yield
commodities and bonds, focusing on the US market where there is least EM $ Corp.
downside risk, adding some near-term downside protection, and keeping MSCI EM*
overall tactical risk below average. In our own GMOS asset allocation model
EMBIG
portfolio, we cut the equity long position in half, while keeping net long
exposures in credit. MSCI AC World*
Topix*
• How does one gauge the various forces driving risk markets? Starting with the EM FX
economy, our 2012 and 2013 growth forecasts, at 2.2% and 2.6%, remain US High Grade
UNCH-ed since late January. Consensus is similarly not moving. The message
MSCI Europe*
on the world economy remains “low but stable”. For the US, unchanged
weekly claims and a pop in Michigan consumer confidence are neutralising EM Local Bonds**
downside risks from recent weakness in job growth. We are comfortable with US Fixed Income
our 2.5% call for Q2. Less encouraging were the April data from China that Gold
forced us to lower our Q2 forecast from 7.8% to 7.0% saar. IP and retail sales
Global Gov Bonds**
growth are slowing into Q2. Our own and consensus projections on a rebound
in H2 depend on monetary and fiscal easing measures. The next reserve Europe Fixed Income*
requirement cut should come next month, followed by fiscal stimulus in the US cash
summer. GSCI TR
0 5 10
• Price momentum is now slightly positive for risk assets, down from strongly Source: J.P. Morgan, Bloomberg. Returns in USD. *Local
so. That is because short-term momentum –– the last month –– is negative, currency. **Hedged into USD. Euro Fixed Income is Iboxx Overall
Index. US HG, HY, EMBIG and EM $ Corp are JPM indices. EM
but the more reliable 6-month momentum, that is the basis of our rule-based FX is ELMI+ in $.
The certifying analyst is indicated by an AC. See page 7 for analyst www.morganmarkets.com
certification and important legal and regulatory disclosures.
2. Global Asset Allocation
The J.P. Morgan View
asset allocation models, remains in positive territory. Buying or selling assets 2012 global GDP growth forecasts: JPMorgan
on just the last month’s price movement is a dangerous game. and Consensus
%
4.0
• Value in risk markets –– risk premia versus cash and safe gov’t debt –– has
improved, but was already attractive to start with, in our view, and is unfortu- 3.5
nately not a good timing signal. The Asset Reflation force –– central bank Consensus
liquidity supply –– is also still in place. It is both a medium-term force, and a 3.0
short-term put as growth shortfalls would likely induce renewed liquidity 2.5
injections and or quantitative easing. Positions are now quite neutral as we JPM
find that tactical positions among short-term investors are now quite flat, even 2.0
as they remain moderately long among more medium-term market participants.
1.5
• That leaves the main near-term negative for markets, tail risk perceptions, and Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
one that has significantly worsened this past week, with Europe and Greece Source: J.P. Morgan, Consensus Economics. Consensus Economics
forecasts are for regions and countries that we averaged using the
against the focus of global concerns. The failure of last week’s Greek elections same 5-year rolling USD GDP weights that we use for our own global
to produce a pro-EMU coalition has raised the risk of eventual EMU exit and growth forecast.
massive contagion to the rest of the Euro area, with our strategists raising exit
odds to 30-50%. The fear scenario is as follows: a new Greek government
refuses the Troika conditions; Troika does not budge and stop new funding;
massive capital flight in anticipation of exit force capital controls in Greece,
and new IOUs to pay public workers, which starts the process to a new
currency; capital flight from rest of periphery. If periphery countries then
impose capital controls, the monetary union is effectively dead, as one
country’s euros are then not the same as another country’s euros. To prevent
this, the Euro area then needs to circle the wagons and accelerate moves to
the joint funding of member governments and capital injections into banks.
The cycle of crisis, midnight decision making, relief, quiet, gradual spread
widening, and renewed crisis remains in place. We choose to protect against
this cycle by underweighting Europe, rather than being short risk on a global
basis.
Fixed income
• Bonds are higher on the week, except in the Euro area periphery, where
worries about Spanish banks and especially the inconclusive Greek election
pushed spreads wider. One of the factors making it so difficult to call market
direction in the past few years has been the increasing impact of political
uncertainty, which investors have found much harder to predict than, say, the
swings in the economic cycle.
• Greek politics, of course, have been harder to predict than most. If the likeli- More details in ...
hood that the electoral process leads to a breakdown of relations with the
Global Data Watch, Bruce Kasman and David Hensley
Troika, and a Greek exit from EMU, is anything close to 50%, then intra-EMU
spreads would have significantly further to widen. Europe is surely unpre- Global Markets Outlook and Strategy, Jan Loeys, Bruce
Kasman, et al.
pared for the scale of the consequent hedging flows from investors,
corporates and depositors seeking protection against potential currency risk US Fixed Income Markets, Terry Belton and Srini
between EMU members, in our view. Ramaswamy
Global Fixed Income Markets, Pavan Wadhwa and Fabio
• What to do in the face of a risk which is so difficult to forecast? Many Bassi
investors have pared back positions, as shown by our European Client Emerging Markets Outlook and Strategy, Joyce Chang
Survey (Aditya Chordia, May 11). And indeed, we remain flat duration in the
Key trades and risk: Emerging Market Equity Strategy,
face of such a binary outlook. We do see merit in adding to hedges where
Adrian Mowat et al.
prices have not yet moved too far, including underweighting short-dated
Italian bonds vs Germany, and positioning for wider German Bund swap Flows and Liquidity, Nikos Panigirtzoglou et al.
spreads (see today’s GFIMS for details).
May 11, 2012 2
3. Global Asset Allocation
The J.P. Morgan View
Equities
• The Greek political crisis is added to Spanish woes and weak economic data,
creating a negative mix for equity markets. It is worth hedging against this
mix via longs in equity volatility. The problem with simple long VIX strategies
is that they have a negative carry which over time becomes problematic. A way
to avoid this negative carry is to hedge via the J.P. Morgan Macro Hedge
Index (JPMZMHUS Index). This index picks up premium through its short
exposure to the 1st month along the VIX futures curve, yet allows for tail risk
protection through its long position in the 2nd month. It takes off the short leg
opportunistically and systematically.
• OW US vs. Euro area equities is another obvious trade to hedge against a
potential escalation of the Greek issue. But beyond its usefulness as a hedge,
this trade is supported by a growing divergence of the profit margin picture in
the US vs. Europe.
• Unconvincing economic data justify a neutral stance on high beta exposures
such a Cyclicals vs. non-Cyclical sectors and EM vs. DM equities. But within
EM, we still likeoverweighting MSCI EM Asia$ vs MSCI EM$. This trade
suffered this week due to weak economic data releases in China. As we
explained last week, this is not a trade that will necessarily perform immedi-
ately. There is perhaps more upside in the summer as we expect that around
July/August, two to three months before leadership change in China, a large
FAI spending program will be announced. Frank Li, our Chinese equity
strategist, stresses that monetary policy alone is not enough to engineer an
economic pick up. Investors should keep a close eye on China’s pace of the
approval of new investment projects and on the timing of China’s nomination
of the standing committee of the politburo. Should there be delay in the
nomination of the above standing committee, the timing of kicking off FAI
projects could also be delayed.
Credit
• Uncertainty around the results of the Greek elections capped a torrid few
weeks for equities. Yet credit has been significantly outperforming. Whilst
spreads were wider across the board, US HG yields hit 3.96% on Wednesday, a
new record low, EM $ sovereigns and corporates are approaching their record
lows of 2010 and US HY isn’t too far off the record lows of 2011. The negatives
feeding into the Treasury rally have not led to a serious deterioration in credit
spreads as strong technicals and credit metrics put downward pressure on
secondary market levels. We continue to favour US credit and hold NEXGEM
markets within EM (which have returned over 5% since the end of February).
• Our colleagues gave some interesting colour on ESMA’s proposed technical
details around EU short selling restrictions yesterday (see Sovereign CDS More details in ...
Regulatory Update, Saul Doctor et al. Note that this is their interpretation of
the text, not a legal opinion.). The European Commission has three months to EM Corporate Outlook and Strategy, Warren Mar et al.
endorse them. Highlights include: 1) Restrictions on uncovered CDS, such that US Credit Markets Outlook and Strategy, Eric Beinstein et al.
an exposure that is sufficiently correlated with the sovereign’s debt must be
High Yield Credit Markets Weekly, Peter Acciavatti et al.
being hedged, which may threaten the future of SovX in its current format. 2)
Bans on cross border hedging with CDS, i.e. exposure in Country X using CDS European Credit Outlook & Strategy, Steven Dulake et al.
on Country Y (subject to some exemptions). 3) Increased power for regulators Emerging Markets Cross Product Strategy Weekly, Eric
to suspend trading for a day if bond yields rises by a certain amount (7 %/% Beinstein et al.
for Sovereign bonds and 10%/% for Corporate bonds).
May 11, 2012 3
4. Global Asset Allocation
The J.P. Morgan View
Foreign Exchange
FX weekly change vs USD
• Greece’s bombshell election results last Sunday have given the world a lot to 2.0%
mull, none of which is comforting. For political pundits, it’s the demise of
mainstream parties; for the historians, it’s Weimar Germany in the making; and
for investors and corporates, it’s Greece’s EMU exit. This is the second time in 1.0%
six months Greece has found (or put) itself in this position. This occurrence is
much more worrisome since the Left is in ascendance and some of its demands
0.0%
(debt moratorium, bank nationalization) could set off a chain of events result-
ing in Greece’s withdrawal or de facto ejection from EMU.
-1.0%
• As disturbing as EMU exit is, it cannot occur automatically, accidentally or
impulsively. Europe and Greece need to make several deliberate policy deci-
sions to deliver the worst-case scenario, as traced in today’s FX Markets -2.0%
Weekly. A centrist government would re-engage the troika and restore EUR/ USD JPY EUR GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD to its previous range in the low 1.30s all else equal. A leftist government TWI
Source: J.P. Morgan
which declares a debt moratorium risks its EMU membership and will prompt
speculation about reintroducing the drachma, an event which would push the
euro well below 1.20 and cause vols to spike to at least 15%.
• Attaching odds to these scenarios entails considerable guesswork given how
coalition-dependent the outcomes are. But if we accept the simple arithmetic
that a centrist coalition is as likely as a leftist one, but EUR/USD downside is
so much larger with leftists than euro upside with centrists, the euro should
decline this summer. For now we increase long USD hedges; forecasts will be
revised in next Friday’s Key Currency Views.
• Having positioned over the past two months for ranges on the dollar indices –
roughly 78 - 81 on DXY and 80 – 82 on JPMQUSD – we add dollar longs given
the direction in which Greek policy is lurching. To an existing cash short in
GBP/USD, add a 12-mo EUR/CHF put spread (1.19 – 1.10 strikes); a 2-mo EUR/
USD put spread (1.25 – 1.20 strikes); and a 2-mo USD/CAD at-expiry digital
(1.0450 strike).
Commodities
• Another week of broad-based commodity declines. Both the EMU crisis
escalation and the weak data out of China contributed. The steep fall for gold
means that it is now only just up on the year. Our overall commodity alloca-
tion remains neutral for the near term, and focused instead on spread trades,
favouring natural gas, crude oil and corn, against gasoline, wheat, and cattle.
• The downdraft in oil in the past two weeks has been striking. We had expected
softer prices in Q2, partly due to refinery maintenance, and continue to
anticipate stronger demand and higher prices in the second half of the year.
The risks around this path are material, however. Our forecast calls for a pick- More details in ...
up in GDP growth, but recent economic momentum and the EMU crisis pose
some downside risks here. Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty remains high in
FX Markets Weekly, John Normand et al.
the Middle East, with either an escalation of tensions, or a diplomatic solution
that brings Iranian oil back to the market, both possible. Thus the risk of a Commodity Markets Outlook & Strategy, Colin
Fenton et al.
move of over $20/bbl in either direction appears elevated, and underpins the
rise in oil implied volatility to around normal levels, having been unusually Oil Markets Monthly, Lawrence Eagles et al.
low. See today’s Oil Market Monthly (Eagles et al.) for details. Metals Review and Outlook, Michael Jansen
Global Metals Quarterly, Michael Jansen
May 11, 2012 4
5. Global Asset Allocation
The J.P. Morgan View
Interest rates Current Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 YTD Return*
United States Fed funds rate 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.125
10-year yields 1.84 2.40 2.50 2.50 2.50 0.5%
Euro area Refi rate 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
10-year yields 1.52 1.80 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.2%
United Kingdom Repo rate 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50
10-year yields 1.96 2.55 2.55 2.40 2.40 -0.6%
Japan Overnight call rate 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05
10-year yields 0.85 1.15 1.05 1.05 1.15 1.1%
GBI-EM hedged in $ Yield - Global Diversified 6.33 6.30 2.6%
Credit Markets Current Index YTD Return*
US high grade (bp over UST) 203 JPMorgan JULI Porfolio Spread to Treasury 3.8%
Euro high grade (bp over Euro gov) 265 iBoxx Euro Corporate Index 4.5%
USD high yield (bp vs. UST) 628 JPMorgan Global High Yield Index STW 7.0%
Euro high yield (bp over Euro gov) 870 iBoxx Euro HY Index 11.8%
EMBIG (bp vs. UST) 360 EMBI Global 6.6%
EM Corporates (bp vs. UST) 396 JPM EM Corporates (CEMBI) 7.1%
Quarterly Averages
Commodities Current 12Q2 12Q3 12Q4 13Q1 GSCI Index YTD Return*
Brent ($/bbl) 112 112 120 125 125 Energy 0.6%
Gold ($/oz) 1586 1750 1850 1875 Precious Metals 1.5%
Copper ($/metric ton) 8207 8150 8575 9000 Industrial Metals 2.7%
Corn ($/Bu) 5.78 6.35 5.85 5.65 Agriculture -5.3%
3m cash YTD Return*
Foreign Exchange Current Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 index in USD
EUR/USD 1.29 1.34 1.36 1.36 1.36 EUR 0.6%
USD/JPY 79.9 78 80 78 80 JPY 3.7%
GBP/USD 1.61 1.61 1.62 1.62 1.62 GBP 4.6%
USD/BRL 1.95 1.90 1.90 1.90 1.90 BRL -1.4%
USD/CNY 6.31 6.20 6.20 6.10 6.10 CNY 0.6%
USD/KRW 1147 1120 1100 1090 1090 KRW 1.9%
USD/TRY 1.78 1.75 1.75 1.70 1.70 TRY 9.0%
YTD Return US Europe Japan EM
Equities Current (local ccy) Sector Allocation * YTD YTD YTD YTD ($)
S&P 1360 8.7% Energy -1.7% -6.4% -3.3% 2.1%
Nasdaq 2948 12.9% Materials 5.5% 4.8% 2.9% 2.2%
Topix 758 6.2% Industrials 6.5% 6.0% 3.5% 9.1%
FTSE 100 5576 1.7% Discretionary 14.1% 13.1% 12.3% 8.8%
MSCI Eurozone* 132 2.5% Staples 5.7% 4.5% 9.7% 10.3%
MSCI Europe* 1031 2.7% Healthcare 7.5% 2.5% 2.9% 11.8%
MSCI EM $* 981 7.9% Financials 15.8% 4.7% 13.0% 8.3%
Brazil Bovespa 59800 5.4% Information Tech. 14.0% 4.1% 5.4% 16.6%
Hang Seng 19965 8.3% Telecommunications 7.8% -5.3% -3.4% 7.6%
Shanghai SE 2395 9.6% Utilities 0.9% -2.1% -0.7% 6.9%
*Levels/returns as of May 10, 2012 Overall 8.7% 2.7% 6.2% 7.9%
Local currency except MSCI EM $
Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, IBES, Standard & Poor's Services, J.P. Morgan estimates
May 11, 2012 5
7. Global Asset Allocation
The J.P. Morgan View
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May 11, 2012 7
8. Global Asset Allocation
The J.P. Morgan View
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May 11, 2012 8