The document summarizes estimates of the size of Puerto Rico's informal economy from various studies between 1980-2009. It finds that the informal economy averaged around 24-27% of GDP according to different estimation methods. In monetary terms, the informal economy was estimated between $12.6-$14.2 billion annually. It also estimates the "tax gap" from unpaid individual taxes due to the informal economy, finding it averaged 25.1% of potential tax revenues, or around $680 million per year. Finally, it notes that while GDP per capita declined, personal consumption exceeded average family income, suggesting the gap may be financed through the informal economy.
Dr. Anne M. Alexander, the Director of International Programs for the University of Wyoming, gave a presentation on the economic outlooks of Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho at the Tri-State Telecommunications Conference on August 1, 2012 in Jackson, WY.
CAR Chief Economist Leslie Appleton Young provides an economic update to the Murrieta Temecula Group and the Southwest Riverside County Association of Realtors
The document provides an overview of recent economic indicators from Europe, the US, and Japan in February 2013. It summarizes that the consensus GDP forecast for the Eurozone remained at 0.1% for 2013 and 1.2% for 2014. While the EU industrial confidence decreased slightly, consumer confidence improved considerably. The GDP forecast for the US decreased to 1.9% for 2013, and the forecast for Japan improved significantly to 1.2% for 2013 and 2014.
The document discusses the state of the U.S. economy and interest rate outlook in August 2011. It notes that greater uncertainty threatens economic expansion due to inflation hurting demand, supply chain issues from Japan, and weak confidence from unemployment and fiscal policy issues. Key risks include financial market volatility and unfavorable fiscal situations in Europe and the Middle East. Continued government support and contained oil prices are key to maintaining the expansion. Housing and employment remain weak areas and the federal budget committee must address deficit issues.
This document provides an overview and forecast of the 2012 California housing market from the Chief Economist at Leslie Appleton-Young. It summarizes that the US and California economies faced challenges in 2011 including oil price spikes, sovereign debt crisis, and political changes that contributed to stock market volatility and consumer spending weakness. Unemployment remains high in California and the US. Job growth was flat in August and California job growth is faltering, with the largest job losses in construction and financial activities. The forecast anticipates continued challenges for the 2012 California housing market.
Pine Economic Calendar: High speed monetary policyBanco Pine
Industrial production in Brazil is estimated to have risen 0.5% in July, the second consecutive monthly rise. Annual industrial production is expected to fall 2.5% in July, an improvement from the 3.5% decline in June. Inflation as measured by the IPCA index is projected to rise 0.38% in August, slightly below the 0.43% rise in July. The central bank is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 7.5% at its next meeting, having reduced it by 50 basis points at its prior meeting.
The document summarizes the global economic outlook and recovery from the 2008 financial crisis. It finds that while a recovery is underway, growth will remain uneven across developed and emerging economies. The US recovery has slowed as stimulus fades, while Europe faces high debt burdens in the periphery. However, emerging markets like China, India, and others in Asia are powering ahead and helping support global growth. Overall, a double-dip global recession is not expected due to stimulus, strong emerging markets, and still-accommodative central bank policies.
This document provides an economic forecast and analysis for the City of Seattle. It summarizes key factors that led to the current recession, including asset bubbles, cheap credit, loose lending standards, and the bursting of the housing bubble. It then analyzes recent economic indicators and forecasts a major regional recession for the Puget Sound area, with peak job losses of over 30,000. Revenue forecasts predict declines for sales tax, B&O tax, and natural gas utility tax due to weakness in construction, retail, and energy prices.
Dr. Anne M. Alexander, the Director of International Programs for the University of Wyoming, gave a presentation on the economic outlooks of Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho at the Tri-State Telecommunications Conference on August 1, 2012 in Jackson, WY.
CAR Chief Economist Leslie Appleton Young provides an economic update to the Murrieta Temecula Group and the Southwest Riverside County Association of Realtors
The document provides an overview of recent economic indicators from Europe, the US, and Japan in February 2013. It summarizes that the consensus GDP forecast for the Eurozone remained at 0.1% for 2013 and 1.2% for 2014. While the EU industrial confidence decreased slightly, consumer confidence improved considerably. The GDP forecast for the US decreased to 1.9% for 2013, and the forecast for Japan improved significantly to 1.2% for 2013 and 2014.
The document discusses the state of the U.S. economy and interest rate outlook in August 2011. It notes that greater uncertainty threatens economic expansion due to inflation hurting demand, supply chain issues from Japan, and weak confidence from unemployment and fiscal policy issues. Key risks include financial market volatility and unfavorable fiscal situations in Europe and the Middle East. Continued government support and contained oil prices are key to maintaining the expansion. Housing and employment remain weak areas and the federal budget committee must address deficit issues.
This document provides an overview and forecast of the 2012 California housing market from the Chief Economist at Leslie Appleton-Young. It summarizes that the US and California economies faced challenges in 2011 including oil price spikes, sovereign debt crisis, and political changes that contributed to stock market volatility and consumer spending weakness. Unemployment remains high in California and the US. Job growth was flat in August and California job growth is faltering, with the largest job losses in construction and financial activities. The forecast anticipates continued challenges for the 2012 California housing market.
Pine Economic Calendar: High speed monetary policyBanco Pine
Industrial production in Brazil is estimated to have risen 0.5% in July, the second consecutive monthly rise. Annual industrial production is expected to fall 2.5% in July, an improvement from the 3.5% decline in June. Inflation as measured by the IPCA index is projected to rise 0.38% in August, slightly below the 0.43% rise in July. The central bank is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 7.5% at its next meeting, having reduced it by 50 basis points at its prior meeting.
The document summarizes the global economic outlook and recovery from the 2008 financial crisis. It finds that while a recovery is underway, growth will remain uneven across developed and emerging economies. The US recovery has slowed as stimulus fades, while Europe faces high debt burdens in the periphery. However, emerging markets like China, India, and others in Asia are powering ahead and helping support global growth. Overall, a double-dip global recession is not expected due to stimulus, strong emerging markets, and still-accommodative central bank policies.
This document provides an economic forecast and analysis for the City of Seattle. It summarizes key factors that led to the current recession, including asset bubbles, cheap credit, loose lending standards, and the bursting of the housing bubble. It then analyzes recent economic indicators and forecasts a major regional recession for the Puget Sound area, with peak job losses of over 30,000. Revenue forecasts predict declines for sales tax, B&O tax, and natural gas utility tax due to weakness in construction, retail, and energy prices.
This report provides an Asia-Pacific economic forecast and analysis of key issues that will influence regional economies and Hawaii over the coming decade. In the near-term, slowing growth is expected in most Asia-Pacific economies due to challenges in Western economies. Longer-term trends discussed include Japan's recovery from the 2011 earthquake, population aging in Korea and other Asian countries, emerging economies' exposure to Western economic shocks through global supply chains, and China's transition to a consumer economy. The report also examines implications for Hawaii tourism and broader economic policy in an Asia-Pacific century.
The document provides an economic outlook for April 2013. It notes that the consensus GDP forecast for the euro area remained unchanged, while consumer confidence was stable and the IFO index for Germany edged down slightly. The US GDP forecast improved, and early indicators suggest firm housing starts. The Japanese GDP growth forecast also improved on expectations of aggressive monetary policy. Overall, the outlook suggests ongoing challenges for Europe with modest improvements expected in the US and Japan.
California Community College Real Estate Educators' Conference, Los Angeles, CA. 2013 Real Estate Economic Forecast presented by Sara Sutachan, Senior Research Fellow, California Association of Realtors.
Alison Felix, PhD and Senior Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City shares trends and projections for recession and recovery in Missouri and the U.S.
The revised estimates for Indian GDP growth in 2010-11 were 8.5%, slightly lower than the advance estimate of 8.6%. Key sectors like manufacturing, mining and quarrying saw lower growth than estimated. However, agriculture grew faster at 6.6% compared to the advance estimate of 5.4%. The services sector also saw upward revisions. For 2011-12, growth is projected to be around 8% given moderating investment growth and inflationary pressures.
The document summarizes recent economic indicators from Europe, the US, and Japan in March 2013. In Europe, GDP growth forecasts were lowered slightly but industrial confidence and consumer confidence improved. Unemployment continued to rise in the Eurozone. In the US, GDP growth forecasts were also lowered and consumption slowed due to tax increases. In Japan, GDP growth forecasts remained stable and the economy appears to have stabilized.
Leslie Appleton Young, CAR Chief Economist, spoke at the Real Living Lifestyles New Year, New You Real Estate Symposium on January 31, 2012. She shared her economic forecast for the coming year, and all of the latest charts and stats on the California economy.
Executive aviation embraer day 2011 03_25(final) vimpEmbraer RI
This presentation discusses the state of the global and U.S. economy, as well as trends in the business jet industry. It notes that while the global economy is expected to grow around 3% annually through 2014, uncertainty remains. U.S. corporate profits and stock markets rebounded in recent years but volatility persists. Business jet traffic in the U.S. and Europe has increased since 2009 but remains below pre-recession levels. The supply of used business jets for sale has declined since 2008.
This presentation provides an overview of the executive aviation market from Embraer's perspective. It discusses forward-looking statements and acknowledges uncertainty in projections. Charts show projections for global GDP growth remaining steady around 3% annually through 2014. U.S. corporate profits are up significantly from 2009 levels though remain below pre-crisis averages. Global stock markets saw over a 10% drop highlighted in late 2008. Business jet traffic in the U.S. and Europe has rebounded in 2011 after declines in 2009. The used aircraft market inventory decreased in 2010 after large increases in prior years.
The document discusses the Southeast Asian Economic Outlook (SAEO) 2011/12 report. It provides an overview of the regional economic outlook for ASEAN countries, China, and India from 2011 to 2016. It notes that growth will remain solid but moderate in the near term due to global economic uncertainties. It emphasizes that strengthening domestic demand and structural policies will be important to coping with external risks. The report also examines medium-term development plans across Southeast Asia and focuses on key policy areas like infrastructure, human capital development, and healthcare reform.
Economic indicators - Economic Monthly Overvies November 2012SappiHouston
The document summarizes recent economic indicators from Europe, the US, Japan, and Germany. It reports that GDP growth forecasts for the EU and Japan were revised downward for 2012 and 2013, while forecasts improved slightly for the US. The German economy remains resilient despite the euro crisis, while the outlook for the EU deteriorates. Unemployment in the EU continues to edge higher.
Agcapita is Canada's only RRSP and TFSA eligible farmland fund and is part of a family of funds with almost $100 million in assets under management. Agcapita believes farmland is a safe investment, that supply is shrinking and that unprecedented demand for "food, feed and fuel" will continue to move crop prices higher over the long-term. Agcapita created the Farmland Investment Partnership to allow investors to add professionally managed farmland to their portfolios. Agcapita publishes a monthly Agriculture Brief which deals with agriculture specific investment issues along with big picture macro-economic issues.
The document provides an economic outlook for Brazil in 2012. Under a basic scenario where the Eurozone crisis does not worsen, Brazil is expected to see moderate GDP growth of 3.0-3.5% driven by monetary easing, resuming public investments, and expanding credit. Inflation is projected to remain above 5% due to accelerating economic activity and rigid services inflation. Interest rates may stabilize at around 10.5% as inflation picks up in 2013. The current account balance will likely be lower while the Real maintains support around 1.80 to the dollar. Faster public spending could lower the primary budget result to around 2.8% of GDP.
Pine Flash Note: Monetary Policy – walking on thin iceBanco Pine
The document summarizes Pine's revised forecasts for Brazilian inflation and economic growth in 2013. Pine has increased its forecast for 2013 IPCA inflation from 5.10% to 5.60% due to deteriorating inflation outlook, but believes the central bank will keep interest rates at 7.25% due to limited economic recovery. Pine's GDP growth forecast of 2.6% is below market consensus of 3.2%. Risks to the inflation forecast include volatility in food prices and currency depreciation.
The document provides an international and domestic macroeconomic outlook for 2012. On the international front, it notes the recovery of the US economy as positive but also highlights risks from high financial market volatility and recession in Europe. Domestically, it outlines strengthening indicators for the US economy like consumer confidence and job growth. Growth in Asia, especially China, is expected to remain strong. Risks to the outlook include continued volatility in Europe if fiscal and political integration is not achieved.
This document summarizes key points from a CIO roundtable discussion on compensation trends:
1) Economic growth remains sluggish in the US while unemployment rates are dropping slightly. Hiring and turnover rates vary by region and industry with life sciences seeing higher salaries on average than technology.
2) Stock prices have recovered close to 12-month highs while certain industries like cloud computing and mobile are adding more jobs in Silicon Valley. Voluntary turnover is increasing, especially in San Diego.
3) Salary increase budgets remain steady with life sciences slightly ahead of technology. Cash incentives focus on both company and individual performance with top performers receiving larger bonuses.
4) Technology companies use more restricted stock for equity
A presentation by Caroline Skinner (Researcher African Centre for Cities, / WIEGO Urban Policies Programme Director) at the Informal Trading Summit on March 20, 2013
This document provides an overview of the informal economy in developing countries based on a fact-finding study commissioned by SIDA. Some key points:
- The informal economy can no longer be considered temporary and has a fixed character in countries with inequitable income/asset distribution. It continues growing in most developing countries even with economic growth.
- Self-employment comprises a greater share of informal employment than wage employment, representing 70% of informal employment in Sub-Saharan Africa.
- The informal economy has significant potential for job creation and economic growth. Appropriate policy frameworks and strategies are needed to support informal economy actors without hampering this potential.
- SIDA should increase its understanding of the informal economy
This document discusses South Africa's informal sector. It begins by outlining the learning objectives which are to understand the concepts and characteristics of informal employment, reasons for high informal employment in South Africa, and case studies and challenges facing the sector. It then provides definitions and examples of formal vs informal employment. Statistics are presented showing around 3 million or 25% of the labor force work informally. Case studies from Manguang and of an individual named Howard provide specific examples of informal employment. Key challenges facing the sector are irregular income, lack of growth opportunities, and lack of access to resources. Overall the summary highlights that South Africa has a large informal sector due to unemployment and lack of skills/education.
This report provides an Asia-Pacific economic forecast and analysis of key issues that will influence regional economies and Hawaii over the coming decade. In the near-term, slowing growth is expected in most Asia-Pacific economies due to challenges in Western economies. Longer-term trends discussed include Japan's recovery from the 2011 earthquake, population aging in Korea and other Asian countries, emerging economies' exposure to Western economic shocks through global supply chains, and China's transition to a consumer economy. The report also examines implications for Hawaii tourism and broader economic policy in an Asia-Pacific century.
The document provides an economic outlook for April 2013. It notes that the consensus GDP forecast for the euro area remained unchanged, while consumer confidence was stable and the IFO index for Germany edged down slightly. The US GDP forecast improved, and early indicators suggest firm housing starts. The Japanese GDP growth forecast also improved on expectations of aggressive monetary policy. Overall, the outlook suggests ongoing challenges for Europe with modest improvements expected in the US and Japan.
California Community College Real Estate Educators' Conference, Los Angeles, CA. 2013 Real Estate Economic Forecast presented by Sara Sutachan, Senior Research Fellow, California Association of Realtors.
Alison Felix, PhD and Senior Economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City shares trends and projections for recession and recovery in Missouri and the U.S.
The revised estimates for Indian GDP growth in 2010-11 were 8.5%, slightly lower than the advance estimate of 8.6%. Key sectors like manufacturing, mining and quarrying saw lower growth than estimated. However, agriculture grew faster at 6.6% compared to the advance estimate of 5.4%. The services sector also saw upward revisions. For 2011-12, growth is projected to be around 8% given moderating investment growth and inflationary pressures.
The document summarizes recent economic indicators from Europe, the US, and Japan in March 2013. In Europe, GDP growth forecasts were lowered slightly but industrial confidence and consumer confidence improved. Unemployment continued to rise in the Eurozone. In the US, GDP growth forecasts were also lowered and consumption slowed due to tax increases. In Japan, GDP growth forecasts remained stable and the economy appears to have stabilized.
Leslie Appleton Young, CAR Chief Economist, spoke at the Real Living Lifestyles New Year, New You Real Estate Symposium on January 31, 2012. She shared her economic forecast for the coming year, and all of the latest charts and stats on the California economy.
Executive aviation embraer day 2011 03_25(final) vimpEmbraer RI
This presentation discusses the state of the global and U.S. economy, as well as trends in the business jet industry. It notes that while the global economy is expected to grow around 3% annually through 2014, uncertainty remains. U.S. corporate profits and stock markets rebounded in recent years but volatility persists. Business jet traffic in the U.S. and Europe has increased since 2009 but remains below pre-recession levels. The supply of used business jets for sale has declined since 2008.
This presentation provides an overview of the executive aviation market from Embraer's perspective. It discusses forward-looking statements and acknowledges uncertainty in projections. Charts show projections for global GDP growth remaining steady around 3% annually through 2014. U.S. corporate profits are up significantly from 2009 levels though remain below pre-crisis averages. Global stock markets saw over a 10% drop highlighted in late 2008. Business jet traffic in the U.S. and Europe has rebounded in 2011 after declines in 2009. The used aircraft market inventory decreased in 2010 after large increases in prior years.
The document discusses the Southeast Asian Economic Outlook (SAEO) 2011/12 report. It provides an overview of the regional economic outlook for ASEAN countries, China, and India from 2011 to 2016. It notes that growth will remain solid but moderate in the near term due to global economic uncertainties. It emphasizes that strengthening domestic demand and structural policies will be important to coping with external risks. The report also examines medium-term development plans across Southeast Asia and focuses on key policy areas like infrastructure, human capital development, and healthcare reform.
Economic indicators - Economic Monthly Overvies November 2012SappiHouston
The document summarizes recent economic indicators from Europe, the US, Japan, and Germany. It reports that GDP growth forecasts for the EU and Japan were revised downward for 2012 and 2013, while forecasts improved slightly for the US. The German economy remains resilient despite the euro crisis, while the outlook for the EU deteriorates. Unemployment in the EU continues to edge higher.
Agcapita is Canada's only RRSP and TFSA eligible farmland fund and is part of a family of funds with almost $100 million in assets under management. Agcapita believes farmland is a safe investment, that supply is shrinking and that unprecedented demand for "food, feed and fuel" will continue to move crop prices higher over the long-term. Agcapita created the Farmland Investment Partnership to allow investors to add professionally managed farmland to their portfolios. Agcapita publishes a monthly Agriculture Brief which deals with agriculture specific investment issues along with big picture macro-economic issues.
The document provides an economic outlook for Brazil in 2012. Under a basic scenario where the Eurozone crisis does not worsen, Brazil is expected to see moderate GDP growth of 3.0-3.5% driven by monetary easing, resuming public investments, and expanding credit. Inflation is projected to remain above 5% due to accelerating economic activity and rigid services inflation. Interest rates may stabilize at around 10.5% as inflation picks up in 2013. The current account balance will likely be lower while the Real maintains support around 1.80 to the dollar. Faster public spending could lower the primary budget result to around 2.8% of GDP.
Pine Flash Note: Monetary Policy – walking on thin iceBanco Pine
The document summarizes Pine's revised forecasts for Brazilian inflation and economic growth in 2013. Pine has increased its forecast for 2013 IPCA inflation from 5.10% to 5.60% due to deteriorating inflation outlook, but believes the central bank will keep interest rates at 7.25% due to limited economic recovery. Pine's GDP growth forecast of 2.6% is below market consensus of 3.2%. Risks to the inflation forecast include volatility in food prices and currency depreciation.
The document provides an international and domestic macroeconomic outlook for 2012. On the international front, it notes the recovery of the US economy as positive but also highlights risks from high financial market volatility and recession in Europe. Domestically, it outlines strengthening indicators for the US economy like consumer confidence and job growth. Growth in Asia, especially China, is expected to remain strong. Risks to the outlook include continued volatility in Europe if fiscal and political integration is not achieved.
This document summarizes key points from a CIO roundtable discussion on compensation trends:
1) Economic growth remains sluggish in the US while unemployment rates are dropping slightly. Hiring and turnover rates vary by region and industry with life sciences seeing higher salaries on average than technology.
2) Stock prices have recovered close to 12-month highs while certain industries like cloud computing and mobile are adding more jobs in Silicon Valley. Voluntary turnover is increasing, especially in San Diego.
3) Salary increase budgets remain steady with life sciences slightly ahead of technology. Cash incentives focus on both company and individual performance with top performers receiving larger bonuses.
4) Technology companies use more restricted stock for equity
A presentation by Caroline Skinner (Researcher African Centre for Cities, / WIEGO Urban Policies Programme Director) at the Informal Trading Summit on March 20, 2013
This document provides an overview of the informal economy in developing countries based on a fact-finding study commissioned by SIDA. Some key points:
- The informal economy can no longer be considered temporary and has a fixed character in countries with inequitable income/asset distribution. It continues growing in most developing countries even with economic growth.
- Self-employment comprises a greater share of informal employment than wage employment, representing 70% of informal employment in Sub-Saharan Africa.
- The informal economy has significant potential for job creation and economic growth. Appropriate policy frameworks and strategies are needed to support informal economy actors without hampering this potential.
- SIDA should increase its understanding of the informal economy
This document discusses South Africa's informal sector. It begins by outlining the learning objectives which are to understand the concepts and characteristics of informal employment, reasons for high informal employment in South Africa, and case studies and challenges facing the sector. It then provides definitions and examples of formal vs informal employment. Statistics are presented showing around 3 million or 25% of the labor force work informally. Case studies from Manguang and of an individual named Howard provide specific examples of informal employment. Key challenges facing the sector are irregular income, lack of growth opportunities, and lack of access to resources. Overall the summary highlights that South Africa has a large informal sector due to unemployment and lack of skills/education.
Street vending is an important source of livelihood in Hyderabad. The document provides a case study of street vending in Hyderabad, including demographics of vendors such as the majority being male, between 25-35 years old, and having primary level education or less. It describes the products sold, places of residence, storage of unsold goods, and average daily incomes. Vendors purchase goods from wholesale markets and face harassment from police through bribes and confiscation of goods. Consumers appreciate street vendors for saving time and money on purchases.
The informal sector consists of small, unregulated businesses and workers that operate outside official rules and regulations in order to avoid taxes, licensing, and other requirements. Reasons for operating in the informal sector include unemployment, insufficient income, and problems with government. The informal sector provides opportunities for employment but also poses issues like low productivity, unsafe conditions, and tax evasion.
The informal sector plays an important role in slum improvement. It provides employment and income generation opportunities for the urban poor through small, self-employed businesses with low entry barriers. While the informal sector helps meet demand for goods and services, it can also cause issues like traffic congestion and environmental problems. Policies aim to improve slums and the informal sector by encouraging self-help groups, providing training and financial assistance, and designating space for informal businesses.
El documento describe la economía informal y las ventas ambulantes. Explica que la informalidad surge del alto costo de la economía formal para las personas con bajos ingresos. Esto lleva a que trabajen de manera ilegal a falta de otras opciones. Sin embargo, las ventas ambulantes invaden el espacio público y crean problemas de seguridad, tráfico y competencia desleal. Se requiere regular el comercio informal sin eliminar las fuentes de empleo, mientras se atacan las causas del desempleo.
The document discusses the external economic drivers that will influence Florida's economy from 2011-2012, noting that the national and global economies will see below potential growth during this period. Key factors that will impact Florida include slow household balance sheet repair, constrained government spending, and monetary policies aimed at supporting the recovery. Overall the outlook is for a slow but continuing economic recovery in Florida through 2012, with risks including federal spending cuts, inflation, and weakness in local economies dependent on population growth.
Temple Leadership Seminar Outlook Talk 2 19 2009mgala
The document summarizes the state of the US economy in early 2009. It notes that actual 2008 economic growth, employment, and inflation were significantly weaker than had been forecast the previous year. Housing prices declined substantially across most states and the sharp drops in home values and stock prices reduced household wealth. The recession caused job losses averaging 250,000 per month since late 2007, and unemployment rose significantly. Businesses reduced inventories and cut back on investment in response to weak sales and economic uncertainty.
The presentation provided an overview of the executive aviation market and discussed forward-looking projections. It summarized key economic indicators like world GDP growth rates, U.S. corporate profits, and stock market returns. Charts showed growth in business jet traffic in the United States and Europe in 2010. Data on the used aircraft market indicated a net decrease in aircraft available for sale so far in 2010 compared to inventory increases in prior years.
The document provides an outlook for the global stock market in 2011 from an investment firm. It predicts that 2011 will see more modest returns than 2010, with a wider variation in performance among different stock categories and companies. It believes the most likely scenario is for the market to be up a little in 2011, with up a little or down a little also possible outcomes. It cites historical precedents that the third years of bull markets and US presidential terms often see more muted returns after initial high gains.
The document provides an economic and market summary for the week of November 26th, 2012. Key points include:
- Global stock markets rebounded last week on hopes of a US fiscal cliff agreement. However, resolving the fiscal cliff remains uncertain.
- In the eurozone, Moody's downgraded France's credit rating and further loan delays weighed on markets. Flash PMIs pointed to ongoing eurozone contraction in Q4.
- In Portugal, the sixth review found the bailout program on track, but unemployment and recession risks remain.
- US housing data continued to show recovery, while initial jobless claims fell. China's manufacturing PMI rose above 50, supporting steady recovery there.
Portugal passed the sixth review of its bailout program, allowing it to receive the next loan tranche. However, downside risks to growth remain significant, and Portugal will have trouble meeting its fiscal targets. The EU summit failed to reach an agreement on the 2014-2020 budget. Chinese and German manufacturing PMIs rose, pointing to continued but weak recovery, while French and euro area PMIs fell, indicating ongoing contraction. Moody's downgraded France, which could strain the French-German relationship. Housing data in the US continues to recover. Japan's upcoming election may lead to more monetary and fiscal stimulus to end yen appreciation.
The document discusses national giving trends in higher education based on an annual benchmarking index. Some key findings from the index include median changes in revenue, donor counts, new donors, retention rates, and reactivation rates between 2008-2010 for private and public institutions. Participation and retention rates for young alumni from the 1990s and 2000s are also presented for different benchmarking groups.
The document discusses national giving trends in higher education benchmarking. It provides data on median changes in revenue, donors, and retention rates for private and public institutions from 2008-2010. Specifically, it shows median revenue per donor decreased for both private and public schools in this period. The document advocates for institutions to conduct benchmarking to identify strengths and weaknesses, consider new ideas, and improve fundraising.
Wayne McCurrie on Fixed Income and Cash Investingmoneyweb
Fixed income and cash investing were to be discussed. The agenda included introductions to fixed income markets and cash investing, as well as broad asset allocations. Fixed income includes government, agency, corporate and municipal bonds. Cash investing provides capital preservation but returns are typically lower than inflation over time. Relative valuations of fixed income versus equities were to also be reviewed.
1) The US GDP report for Q2 is expected to show growth below 1.5%, lower than Q1, indicating continued weak growth.
2) In Europe, PMIs for Spain are expected to be stable but growth is unlikely to last given the complex crisis situation.
3) Brazil's unemployment rate is forecast to fall slightly to 5.6% in June, remaining at 5.4% when seasonally adjusted. Average real income growth cooled in May.
The document provides an economic analysis of the Indian economy through a top-down approach, beginning with a macroeconomic analysis and then discussing various sectors. It summarizes that while India experienced strong growth in recent years, the economy has slowed in 2011-2012 due to high inflation, fiscal deficits, and a lack of investment. Several key sectors like manufacturing and mining experienced declines or slower growth during this period. Services remains the largest sector in India's economy, growing at over 9% annually from 2001-2010.
Utah's economy grew more rapidly than the national economy in 2011, with employment increasing 2.3% compared to 0.9% nationally. The unemployment rate fell to 7.7% in Utah. Economic growth is expected to accelerate in 2012, with a forecasted employment increase of 2.7% and unemployment declining further to 6.7%. Construction activity increased slightly in 2011 from historic lows and is expected to continue a modest recovery in 2012. Tourism and exports also increased in 2011 and are forecasted to continue growing in 2012. The energy sector continued to rebound from declines in 2009-2010. Mineral production values increased 7% in 2011 and are expected to remain stable in 2012.
INDONESIA CONTEXTUAL ANALYSIS in WATER SUPPLY AND SANITATION SECTOROswar Mungkasa
Indonesia is an archipelago country made up of over 17,000 islands. It has a population of over 237 million people unevenly distributed across its islands. Agriculture is a major economic activity dependent on water resources. Indonesia faces challenges of water scarcity due to increasing population, pollution, deforestation, and effects of climate change. Over 60% of watersheds are critically degraded. Less than half of the urban population and only 8% of rural populations have access to clean water supply systems. Water quality in many rivers exceeds standards and groundwater is increasingly contaminated. Stronger management and cooperation across sectors is needed to conserve water resources and ensure access to water and sanitation for all Indonesians.
The national economy is recovering but growth will remain weak. While the recession is over, unemployment will stay high for some time. Consumers remain cautious with high debt and weak confidence. The housing market is still declining with foreclosures and underwater mortgages remaining problems. The Arizona economy is also recovering slowly without strong population growth. Job growth has been flat and housing permits are still far below peak levels.
The document summarizes key points about agriculture in India's Twelfth Five Year Plan, including:
1) Agriculture accounts for 14% of GDP but is still the main livelihood for most of the rural population, so rapid agricultural growth is critical for inclusiveness.
2) Agricultural growth has accelerated compared to the Tenth Plan, reaching an average of 3.3% during the Eleventh Plan, though short of the 4% target. Variability in growth has also reduced significantly.
3) Factors like increased irrigation, more diversified agriculture, better information and investments in watershed development have helped reduce weather risk and variability in agricultural growth, though there is still scope for improvement in these areas.
The Brazilian Central Bank (BCB) published its 4Q12 Inflation Report reaffirming that monetary conditions should remain stable for a prolonged period. The report signals that maintaining the current interest rate of 7.25% is appropriate to keep inflation within the target range given mild economic recovery, despite some temporary weakness in recent data. Changes to inflation projections are also viewed as temporary, with inflation expected to return to target levels by the end of 2014. The external environment poses some risks but these have lessened, and the overall assessment remains of a disinflationary global environment.
The Indian residential market continues to see substantial levels of new projects entering into the market, which is creating more ‘Investor friendly’ environment, with increase in choice of quality product. Consistent demand for prime residential properties is putting a upward pressure on rentals as well as capital values in almost all the micro markets. As the government is taking initiatives to boost long term demand, transaction volumes are likely to see revival in the coming festive seasons.
The document summarizes the key external economic drivers that will influence Florida's economy from 2011-2012. It finds that the national and global economies will experience below potential growth during this period. Specifically, it notes modest US growth, stability but fragility in financial markets, and expanding trade opportunities in emerging markets like Asia and Latin America. Overall, the economic outlook is positive for Florida's recovery from recession, but a return to strong growth is unlikely in the next two years.
The Economy and Financial Markets: Crawling Out of Recession - David Wyss, Br...IFG Network marcus evans
David Wyss, Brown University/Standard & Poor - Speaker at the 2012 IFG Wealth Management Forum, delivered his presentation entitled The Economy and Financial Markets: Crawling Out of Recession
1) La inflación en servicios se ha estado acelerando en Puerto Rico y en otras economías a nivel global, con tasas de inflación más altas en servicios que en bienes. 2) En Puerto Rico, la inflación subyacente, que excluye alimentos y energéticos, ha aumentado considerablemente desde 2021, alcanzando un máximo de 4.3% en julio de 2022. 3) Un análisis de las tasas de inflación de categorías de bienes y servicios en Puerto Rico entre 2019 y 2022 muestra que la inflación ha sido mayor en bienes, especialmente
Este documento compara la brecha entre el PIB y PNB de Puerto Rico y República Dominicana en 2021. Muestra que la brecha fue mucho mayor en Puerto Rico (46.9% del PNB) que en República Dominicana (6.8% del PNB), indicando que una mayor proporción de la actividad económica en Puerto Rico se debe a empresas multinacionales. También discute las complicaciones de usar el PIB versus el PNB como medida del bienestar económico.
Examen comparativo de los flujos de fondos federales entre Puerto Rico y el gobierno federal.
Flows of federal funds between Puerto Rico and the US federal government.
The document discusses Puerto Rico's recent economic performance and challenges. It notes that Puerto Rico's economy has contracted in most years since 2007, with real GNP growth of -1.8% on average from 2007-2014. Two other major issues facing Puerto Rico are its high and growing public debt level, which represents 103.2% of nominal GNP, and increasing out-migration of residents to the US mainland. Puerto Rico also faces difficulties with its healthcare system due to large cuts to Medicare and Medicaid funding compared to US states.
1) Puerto Rico's economy has contracted for most years since 2007, with real GNP declining by 13.8% total over that period. Persistent fiscal deficits and high levels of public debt exceeding 100% of GNP are major issues.
2) Out-migration, especially of working age residents, has increased substantially in recent years, reducing Puerto Rico's tax base. The population declined by around 8% from its 2004 peak.
3) The fiscal year 2016 budget assumes no deficit but revenues have frequently fallen short of projections, suggesting another deficit is likely. Cash flow problems necessitate short-term borrowing to start the fiscal year.
El Caribe en el Contexto Global: Introducción Panel
The informal economy in puerto rico
1. August 9, 2012
Ave. Domenech 113, Hato Rey, Puerto Rico, 00918-3501 Tel. (787) 751-1675 • Fax (787) 767-2117
Apartado 12144, San Juan, Puerto Rico, 00914-0144 e studiostecnicos@estudios-tecnicos. c o m
2. Table of Content
Background on the economy
Estimates of the size of the informal economy: Introduction
International comparisons
Estimates
The informal economy and personal consumption
Sources consulted
2
3. Background on the economy …
• As in the case of other Annual Average Growth of Real GNP: Puerto Rico and
economies, the Puerto Rican the U.S. 1970 a 2011*
Average for period:
economy has not been P.R. 2.0%
4.0% U.S. 2.8%
inmune to the global 4.0% 3.6% 3.7%
3.4%
3.0% 2.9% 2.9%
recession, made more 2.4%2.6% 2.4%
2.2%
2.5%
pronounced by structural 1.8%
1.2%
problems. 0.7%
• Compared to previous
decades the local economy P.R. U.S.
-1.5% -1.5%
has “decoupled” from that of 1970-75 1975-80 1980-85 1985-90 1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 2011
the US during the second Sources; P.R. Planning Board; Statistical Appendix, various years; U.S. BEA. * U.S. data on P.R.'s fiscal year basis.
half of the decade.
Annual Growth of Real GNP Per Capita and Personal
• So far the local economy is Disposable Income
4.0%
still in the downward phase
of the business cycle, with 2.0%
the recession becoming less
pronounced by 2011. 0.0%
• Real per capita income has
-2.0%
declined, although PDI has GNP per capita PDI
not as much, reflecting the -4.0%
e ff e c t o f t h e e c o n o m i c 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
stimulus funds from the US. Source: Puerto Rico Planning Board (2012). Statistical Appendix 2011. Table 1.
3
4. Background on the economy …
Unemployment Rate
• As labor markets conditions 18
deteriorate, they have an 17
impact on the size of the 16
15
informal economy. Between
14
2007 and June 2012 there 13
has been a net loss of 12
162,500 jobs (Household 11
Survey). 10
2005
Feb-09
Jul-09
Dec-09
May-10
Oct-10
Mar-11
Aug-11
Jan-12
Jun-12
• The unemployment rate has
increased significantly, from Source: P.R. Department of Labor
10.6% in 2006 to 15.7% in
Percent of Job Losses During Recession
2011. By June of this year it
Percent of job lost as a percent of
2.0%
fell to 13.8%, still above the
employment in peak month
0.0%
2006 level. -2.0%
-4.0%
• The labor force participation -6.0%
-8.0%
rate, which traditionally has -10.0%
been low, declined further, -12.0%
-14.0%
from 47.2% in 2006 to 39.6% -16.0%
in June. -18.0%
-20.0%
• The employment rate has 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72
Number of months after peak month (April 2006)
also fell, from 42.3% in 2006 Source: P.R. Department of Labor, Household Survey. To June 2012.
to 34.1% in June.
4
5. Estimates of the size of the informal economy
Introduction
The informal or underground economy in Puerto Rico has been the subject of study since the
early 1980’s. As in the case of similar studies worldwide, different approaches and areas were
measured, mostly that of tax evasion of individuals.
The most recent studies on the subject are those undertaken by Estudios Técnicos, Inc. (ETI)
in 2004 and 2010. The first study covers the period 1980-2002, while the second study extends
it to 2009. About the same time, two comparative studies by F. Schneider (2004; 2006) on the
size of the shadow economy worldwide included Puerto Rico for the first time, among Latin
America and the Caribbean economies. The studies applied two methods: the Dynamic
Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes approach, and that of currency demand, for the period
1999-2003. In tables 1 and 2 below, we present a comparative summary of the estimates of
ETI, Schneider, and of other studies by country and region, including Puerto Rico.
In the first study by ETI, a basic methodological approach was used, that of differences in the
labor force participation rate. In the 2010 study, which updates that of 2004, three methods
were used: the physical inputs approach (the M. Lackó method), that of discrepancies in the
labor force participation rate, and a structural approach using MIMIC (multiple indicators
multiple causes). Another estimate (in the case of individuals) was developed, that of the tax
gap, that is, the proportion of potential tax revenues from individuals not received as a result of
informal activity (does not include the ilegal part), for the period 2000-2009. Tables 4 and 5
below, and Figure 1 presents the estimates from the different approaches by ETI.
A very important point to take into consideration, when examining and comparing estimates of
informal activity, very much emphasized in the literature, is that no single method or approach
is better than the other. Each one has its advantages and disadvantages.
5
6. Estimates of the size of the informal economy
International
comparisons
Table 1
• Tables 1 and 2 present
estimates of the size
of the informal
economy worldwide,
including Puerto Rico,
from the various
approaches used in
different studies,
mainly that of
Schneider.
• Between 1999 and
2009 on average, the
size of the informal
economy increased.
6
7. Estimates of the size of the informal economy
International
Table 2
comparisons
• Among the Latin American
and Caribbean countries the
size of P.R.’s informal
economy is below the
average for both regions.
7
8. Estimates of the size of the informal economy
Estimates
• Table 3 presents previous estimates on the size of the informal economy. The differences
reflect the different methodologies used by the analysts,
• Table 4 presents the estimates from our 2010 study. Under the three approaches, the level
of the size of the informal economy is similar, fluctuating between 23.6% and 27.2% as a
proportion of GNP in 2009. For the whole period (2000-2009) it averaged 24.2% under the
LFPR approach, and 27.1% with the other two methods.
Table 3 Table 4
Previous Estimates of the Size of the Estimates of the Size of the Informal Economy of
Puerto Rico According to Different Methods*
Informal Economy
Estimate As a % of
Study Year (US $Bb) GNP Physical
Inputs (Lackó Discrepancies
J. Stewart (1984) 1981 $1.5 12.7% Year method) in LFPR MIMIC
Booz Allen & Hamilton (1987) 1984 $2.5 17.6% 2000 24.0% 24.7% 29.5%
J. Benitez (1989) 1984 $2.9 20.4% 2001 25.6% 26.3% 27.2%
Toledo and Camacho (1994) 1976 $2.2 28.9% 2002 27.7% 25.3% 29.5%
1992 $3.7 15.6% 2003 29.5% 24.0% 29.5%
P.R. Planning Board (1998)** 1997 $4.0 12.4% 2004 30.1% 22.7% 27.1%
Julio C. Pol (2004) 2002 $6.3 14.0%
2005 29.2% 21.5% 25.3%
Estudios Técnicos, Inc. (2004) 1985 $4.3 28.8%
2006 27.6% 22.2% 26.3%
1990 $5.3 24.6%
2007 27.8% 23.4% 25.4%
1995 $6.6 23.2%
2008 25.6% 24.9% 24.3%
Note: The estimates by Stewart and P.R. Planning Board consider
2009 23.6% 27.2% 26.6%
income from the legal and ilegal activities in the informal economy.
** Applying the proportions from Stewart study. Source: Estimates by Estudios Técnicos, Inc. (2010).
* As % of GNP.
LFPR = Labor force participation rate.
8
9. Estimates of the size of the informal economy
Estimates
• In monetary terms (nominal prices), the estimated value of the production of the informal
sector fluctuated between $12,654 and $14,200 millions during the period 2000-2009.
Table 5
Estimates on the Size of the Informal Economy
Monetary Value of Production ($US Mm)
Physical Inputs Discrepancies in
Year (Lackó method) LFPR MIMIC
2000 $9,940" $10,230" $12,218"
2001 $11,276" $11,584" $11,981"
2002 $12,485" $11,403" $13,296"
2003 $14,006" $11,395" $14,006"
2004 $15,263" $11,511" $13,742"
2005 $15,696 $11,557 $13,599
2006 $15,658 $12,481 $14,921
2007 $16,547 $13,928 $15,118
2008 $15,751 $15,382 $14,951
2009 $15,062 $17,070 $16,945
Average: $14,168 $12,654 $14,078
Source: Estimates by Estudios Técnicos, Inc. (2010).
LFPR = Labor force participation rate.
9
10. Estimates of the size of the informal economy
Estimates
• An estimate of the tax gap in the case of individuals was developed as a function of the
size of the informal economy, based on the estimates derived from the discrepancies in the
LFPR approach. The gap is defined as the proportion of the potential tax revenues from
individuals not received by the governmen as a result of their informal activity (does not
include the ilegal part).
• The tax gap, as a percentage of the tax responsability of individuals fluctuated, from 25.9%
in 2000, amounting to $581.0 million, to 26.9% in 2008, averaging 25.1% during the
period.
Figure 1
Tax Gap Estimates
$717.7 $710.4
$685.5 $685.9
$663.8
$619.7 $617.7 $621.8
$581.0 $593.7
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Estimates by Estudios Técnicos, Inc, (2010) using tax data from the Treasury Department.
10
11. Estimates of the size of the informal economy
The informal economy and personal consumption
• There are no estimates of the impact of the size of the informal economy on personal
consumption. Nevertheless, the gap between income and spending can give an idea as to
how that difference might be covered.
• In P.R. transfers from the US goverment are an important source of income for individuals
and families, representing about 27% of personal disposable income. These transfers tend
to mitigate the effects of declines in regular income.
• As presented before, while real GNP per capita fell an average of -2.0% during the current
recessión (2007-2011), PDI maintained a modest real growth of 0.7%.
• On the other hand, the gap between PCE and AFI (which already includes US transfers)
has increased steadily, giving an idea as to how that gap might be financed through other
sources of income.
Figure 2
Average Family Income and Personal
Consumption Expenditures (Fiscal Years)
$US th's
$60,000
$55,000
$50,000
$45,000
$40,000
Average Family Income
$35,000 PCE
$30,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Puerto Rico Planning Board (2012). Statistical Appendix 2011. Table 1.
11
12. Sources consulted
• Autoridad de Energía Eléctrica de Puerto Rico (2010). Serie facturación mensual consumo de energía eléctrica residencial.
Department of Statistics and Forecasts (July 8th).
• Alejandro Portes y William Haller (2004). La Economía Informal. CEPAL, Serie Políticas Sociales #100, División de Desarrollo
Social, Santiago de Chile (November). At www.eclac.org/publicaciones/xml/5/20845/sps100_lcl2218.pdf.
• Booz-Allen & Hamilton (1987). Final Report on the Tax Reform Program. Prepared for the Department of the Treasury,
Commonwealth of Puerto Rico. Washington D.C. (February).
• Daniel Mitchell (2007). “The Tax Gap Mirage”, Tax & Budget Bulletin, Cato Institute No. 44 (March). At
http://www.cato.org/pubs/tbb/tbb_0306-44.pdf.
• David Giles (1998). The Underground Economy: Minimizing the Size of Government. Vancouver, The Fraser Institute, Canadá. At
www.fraserinstitute.org/.../HowtoUseFiscalSurplusUndergroundEconomy.pdf.
• David Giles y B. Johnson (1999a). “Taxes, Risk Aversion, and the Size of the Underground Economy: A Nonparametric Analysis
with the New Zealand Data.” Econometrics Working Paper EWP 9910, University of Victoria, Canadá. At
http://web.uvic.ca/econ/research/papers/pdfs/ewp9910.pdf.
• David Giles (1999b). Modelling the Hidden Economy and the Tax Gap in New Zealand. Departament de Economía, Universidad
de Victoria, Canadá (February). At http://web.uvic.ca/econ/research/papers/ewp9905.pdf.
• Department of Labor and Human Resources of Puerto Rico. Series on Employment and Unemployment. Bureau of Labor
Statistics. Various years.
• Estudios Técnicos, Inc. (2004). La Economía Informal en Puerto Rico. San Juan. Report prepared for the Department of Labor
and Human Resources of Puerto Rico (October).
• Estudios Técnicos, Inc. (2010). Estudio Sobre la Economía Informal en Puerto Rico. San Juan. Study prepared for the
Government Development Bank of Puerto Rico (August).
• Friedrich Schneider and Dominik Enste (2000). “Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences,” Journal of Economic
Literature, Vol. 37 (Marzo) pp. 77-114.
• Friedrich Schneider and Dominik Enste (2001). Increasing Shadow Economies All Over the World: Fiction or Reality. A Survey of
the Global Evidence of their Size and of their Impact from 1970 to 1995. NP, mimeo. At
www.rebe.rau.ro/RePEc/rau/journl/SP07/REBE-SP07-A13.pdf.
12
13. Sources consulted
• Friedrich Schneider (2002). Size and Measurement of the Informal Economy in 110 Countries Around the World (Julio). Paper
presented at the Workshop of the Australian National Tax Center, Canberra, Australia. At
http://www.unescap.org/tid/gateway/tisgway_is.pdf.
• Friedrich Schneider (2004). The Size of the Shadow Economies of 145 Countries all over the World: First Results over the Period
1999 to 2003. Discussion Paper No. 1431, Institute for the Study of Labor, Bonn (December). At
http://www.dur.ac.uk/john.ashworth/EPCS/Papers/Schneider.pdf.
• Friedrich Schneider (2006). Shadow Economies of 145 Countries all over the World: What do we really know? (August). At
http://www.crema-research.ch/papers/2005-13.pdf
• Friedrich Schneider, Andreas Buehn and Claudio E. Montenegro (2010). Shadow Economies all over the World: New estimates for
162 Countries from 1999 to 2007. Research paper for the Word Bank study on the informal sector in the economies of Eastern
Europe and Baltic countries (January 20th).
• Guillermo Vuletin (2008). Measuring the Informal Economy in Latin America and the Caribbean. Washington, D.C., International
Monetary Fund, WP/08/102 (April). At http://www.imf.org.
• John Stewart (1984). “Notes on the Underground Economy of Puerto Rico”, Puerto Rico Business Review, Government
Development Bank of Puerto Rico, Vol. 9:4 (April).
• Julio C. Pol (2004). Estimaciones de la economía subterránea: El caso de Puerto Rico. Ensayos y Monografías No. 117,
Economics Research Unit, Department of Economics, University of Puerto Rico, Río Piedras Campus (January). At
Http://www.economia.uprrp.edu/ensayo%20117.pdf.
• Leandro Colón (2002). “La economía informal en Puerto Rico: Problemática, estimados macroeconómicos y agenda sugerida,” in
Francisco Martínez and Francisco Catalá, eds., Ensayos sobre la Pobreza en Puerto Rico, San Juan, Publicaciones
Puertorriqueñas.
• Puerto Rico Planning Board (1998). Algunas consideraciones sobre la economía subterránea en Puerto Rico. Informe
Económico al Gobernador 1997, San Juan, Bureau of Economic Analysis, chapter VI.
• Puerto Rico Planning Board (2012). Statistical Appendix to the Economic Report to the Governor, 2011. San Juan, Bureau of
Economic Analysis. At Apéndice Estadístico, http://www.jp.gobierno.pr/
• Wilfredo Toledo and Wilfredo Camacho, “Evasión contributiva y economía informal en Puerto Rico,” in Suphan Andic and Ramón
J. Cao, eds. (1996), Estudios de Base para la Reforma Contributiva, Río Piedras, University of Puerto Rico Press, chapter. 8.
13