The Health of the Nation is greatly determined by the number of People willing to study Medical courses and also practice as soon as certified fit. In this study; Applicant's for Medicine & Surgery are analysed to know if Interest is part of the shortfall of Nigeria ranking least among the Healthy Nations. JAMB 2011 & 2012 data was used in this analysis.

1. Health Index:
The Health of Nigerians
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2. According to UNICEF; Life expectancy of Nigerians at birth (years) in
2010 was 51. Falls short of Ghana’s (59.6); Malaysia’s (74.2); Brazil’s
(72.5); Saudi Arabia’s (70.9), and misery-prone Haiti’s (59.1).
World Economic Forum in its Global Competitive Index ranks Nigeria
140 of 142 countries in Health and Primary Education. This
statistically implies there are less healthy people in Nigeria
compared to the rest of the World.
The health of the Citizens determines greatly the Wealth of the
Nation. How can we explain this if the governing class seek medical
attention abroad while the governed are left to their fate?
Do we have fewer people showing interest in studying Medical
courses or it is just one of those gray areas of governance (like
Power – Electricity) that the dividend of democracy is yet to come to
bare for the masses?
This study is undertaken to reveal the root cause of the present state
of Nigeria health sector using JAMB 2012 applicants’ choices.

3. Methodology of Study:
JAMB 2011 and 2012 data will be used for
analysis; with application for Medicine & Surgery
as subject of focus. Admission data from some
schools will also be used to calculate statistics of
interest as itemized below:
- How much interest is shown by Applicant’s to study
Medicine & Surgery?
- What is the of Application to Admission ratio / % ?
- What is the estimate Doctors to Patients ratio?

4. Medicine & Surgery as Course of Study
2011: Medicine & Surgery Applicants
Owner Total
Federal 15
Private 4
State 16
Institution ABU OAU UNN UNILAG UNIBEN UNIPORT UI UNILORIN UNICAL NAU UNIMAID UDUS
Count 12,273 8,674 8,549 7,949 7,821 7,614 7,107 6,516 5,158 4,426 4,270 4,088
Institution BAYERO UNIJOS UNIUYO LAUTECH DELSU AAUA UNAD BSU NDU KSA ABSU UNIABUJA
Count 4,057 3,774 3,147 2,766 2,341 1,763 1,734 1,448 1,273 1,232 1,108 819
Institution EVANS EBSU OSUN LASU OOU ESUTECH GSU MADONNA BOWEN BINGHAM IGBINEDON
Count 817 775 738 735 404 351 274 202 195 85 47

5. Medicine & Surgery as Course of Study
2012: Medicine & Surgery Applicants
Institution UNN OAU UNILORIN UNIBEN UNILAG UI ABU NAU UNICAL UDU UNIJOS BAYERO
Count 10,131 9,184 8,694 7,932 7,878 7,628 6,773 5,914 5,535 4,871 4,270 4,244
Institution UNIUYO UNIPORT EVANS DELSU UNIMAID LAUTECH NDU ABSU KSU UNIABUJA BSU UNAD
Count 3,861 3,625 2,858 2,642 2,566 2,281 2,104 1,801 1,590 1,533 1,271 1,241
Institution AAUA OSUN EBSU LASU OOU ESUTECH ANSU MADONNA BOWEN IGBINEDION AFE
Count 1,137 880 773 668 607 562 312 308 271 75 17

6. Total Applicants
No. Year Total Count
1 2011 114,530
2 2012 116,037
With a population of approximately 158,000,000 (2011)
and 160,000,000 (2012), assuming all that applied to study
Medicine & Surgery were admitted:
No. Year Total Count Doctor: Patient
1 2011 114,530 1 : 1380
2 2012 116,037 1 : 1379
*In reality, an extrapolated population figure of Nigeria in 7years time should be used with
this JAMB figures – more so that Nigeria education system is unpredictable

7. JAMB Application and Admission ratio (2000 – 2007)
Application
FACULTY 2000 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007
Medical Sciences 73,388 150,679 170,813 161,755 146,306 165,693
Total applicants 416,381 994,380 1,132,392 916,371 803,472 911,653
Admission
FACULTY 2000 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007
Medical Sciences 3,862 3,844 7,225 5,071 6,066 7,138
Total admitted 45,766 51,845 105,401 77,085 88,524 107,370
% of Medical Sciences Admitted
FACULTY 2000 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007
Medical Sciences 5.26 2.55 4.23 3.13 4.15 4.31
Medical Sciences comprises of courses such as Dental Surgery, Nursing,
Optometry, Physiology, Pharmacy, Radiography, Pharmacology, etc.
Medicine & Surgery remains the most sought-after.
Nevertheless, the number of candidates admitted is a great distance from
expected doctors fit to cater for the health challenges of Nigerians.

8. Case Study – Application : Admission ratio
No. Institution Year Applicants Admitted % of Admitted
1 UNILAG 2011 7,949 258 3.25%
2 BAYERO 2011 4,057 114 2.81%
3 UNN 2011 8,549 141 1.65%
On the average less than 4% of applicants are admitted to
study Medicine & surgery yearly. By extrapolation; 4% of
total applicants:
No. Year Total Count 4% of Applicants
1 2011 114,530 4,581
2 2012 116,037 4,641
This implies less than 5,000 applicants are admitted yearly in
the whole of Nigerian universities to study Medicine & Surgery

9. Recommended Doctors : Patient ratio
The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends
1:600 Doctor-Patient ratio. Nigeria is estimated to
currently be on about 1:3500, Doctor-Patient ratio.
Recent strike by Doctors working under the Lagos State
government has put the above Doctor-Patient ratio to
question. See the data below:
Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012
Doctors 307 375 468 645 806 875 788
Lagos Bureau of Statistics ,Ministry of Economic Planning and Budget (2010)
Lagos state is the most populated state and the commercial hub of
Nigeria; with 788 Doctors for 18million people (beside Doctors
working in private establishments), Doctor-Patient ratio is 1:22,843
If Lagos state goes by these figures, Imagine other less developed States!

10. Conclusion:
 Over 100,000 qualified applicants show interest in
studying Medicine & Surgery yearly, less than 5% are
offered admission
 Not all that are enrolled eventually graduate as Doctors
 Some who graduated never practiced, so less medical
doctors who graduate actually practice as Doctors
 Universities cannot admit more than certain quota
based on NUC policy
 This is often due to lack of infrastructures in our
Universities
 The government spend less on Education, same with the
Health sector
 More Nigerian Doctors travel abroad to work because of
better work environment and remuneration
Doctors go on strike like normal employees!!!

11. From all indication, the onus lies on the
Government – Federal, State and Local.
Funding Education appropriately would
increase the number of applicants admitted
to study Medicine & Surgery which will also
increase the number of Medical Graduates as
well as reduce the Doctor-Patient ratio.
Good health is basic to survival!

12. Data source:
- The World Economic Forum https://www.weforum.org/
- Lagos Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Economic
Planning and Budget (2010)
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Analysis by: Wale Micaiah
e: walegate@yahoo.com
m: 08078001800
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