This document summarizes the state of digital radio in the UK, focusing on the Digital Audio Broadcasting (DAB) platform. It notes that while DAB was initially heavily invested in and promoted by the radio industry, its growth has stagnated with low consumer adoption rates. Recently many digital-only radio stations on DAB have closed down or reduced services. The viability of the two national DAB multiplexes, operated by Digital One and the upcoming Channel 4 multiplex, are now in serious question as the commercial radio groups reduce their commitments to DAB. The future of DAB and digital radio is uncertain, with a government working group tasked with addressing the issues.
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The Future of Digital Radio: Is DAB the Answer
1. THE FUTURE OF DIGITAL RADIO:
IS IT ‘DAB’?
GRANT GODDARD
January 2008
2. ExecutiveSummary
The transition from analogue to digital is proving painful for many media
industries, but for none more so than the radio sector. There is little doubt that
‘digital radio’ will replace ‘analogue radio’ eventually, but at issue is the speed
of that conversion and which of the digital platforms will prove to be most
popular with consumers. Since 1999, the large commercial radio groups have
invested heavily in the Digital Audio Broadcasting (DAB) platform as the most
likely replacement for traditional ‘FM’ and ‘AM’ radio broadcasting. Other
digital platforms have been less prominent within their strategies, as a result
of which the largest radio owner GCap Media, for example, has no channels
on Freeview, despite it being the fastest growing digital broadcast platform.
Although the ‘DAB’ platform has struggled over the last decade to attract
significant consumer or advertiser interest, the radio sector has pinned its
hopes on the belief that a sudden upswing in DAB’s fortunes would be just
around the corner. Even in 2007, Ofcom was inviting applicants for a second
national DAB multiplex as if it were a ‘licence to print money’ rather than a
mammoth infrastructure undertaking that would add further spectrum to a
platform already suffering from overcapacity. As a result, the launch in mid-
2008 of the Channel 4 DAB multiplex will double the spectrum available for
national DAB, even at a time when the first multiplex still struggles to fill its
capacity with viable channels.
By the end of 2007, it was evident that the ‘masterplan’ for DAB which the
radio industry had clung to since the mid-1990s was simply not going to work.
The closure of two longstanding national digital-only radio stations – Core and
Oneword – combined with reductions in the service of several other digital
brands helped to crystallise the problems: too much spectrum, not enough
consumer hardware take-up, and not enough enthusiasm for DAB from
listeners or advertisers. Furthermore, the costs of DAB transmission continued
to grow, whilst advertising revenues from the platform remained almost non-
existent. By year-end, some in the radio industry were admitting for the first
time that DAB might not be ‘the future of radio’ that they had anticipated.
If half the problem is admitting that you have a problem, then the radio
industry has finally overcome that barrier, and it must now move on to the
other half, which is how to solve ‘DAB’. A newly constituted government
working group met for the first time on 28th January 2008 to consider all the
issues surrounding digital radio, and will be making its recommendations by
year-end. However, before then, the issue of DAB overcapacity still urgently
needs to be resolved, and this will require a pragmatic solution by the main
parties involved – Digital One (owner of the first national DAB multiplex),
Channel 4 (owner of the forthcoming second national DAB multiplex), Arqiva
(the main transmission provider contracted by radio owners to build DAB
infrastructure) and Ofcom. Put bluntly, can the UK commercial radio sector
really support two national DAB multiplexes?
3. Introduction
Like the television medium, radio is presently undergoing a transition from the
analogue to digital platform. Unlike television, there is still no roadmap or
timeline for the switch to digital radio, nor any date for the switch-off of
analogue radio services. Cumulative unit sales of DAB receivers had reached
6.45 million by the end of 2007, although listening to digital-only stations is not
showing substantial growth.1 In October 2007, our report on these issues
(Digital Radio Switchover – somewhere over the rainbow? [2007-99])
questioned whether the radio industry had “bet on the wrong horse” by
investing so heavily in the DAB platform, and it asked how the industry could
extricate itself from the “substantial DAB platform infrastructure it has
created”? Since then, significant developments have occurred that hint at
answers to these two important questions:
1. The Digital Radio Development Bureau (DRDB)
• In November 2007, DRDB Chief Executive Ian Dickens left the post after
five years.
Still without a permanent chief executive, the DRDB (a joint commercial radio
and BBC initiative created in 2001 to promote digital radio) needs to be able to
actively lead the radio industry forward at this critical time in digital radio’s
development.
2. Department for Culture Media & Sport (DCMS) Digital Radio Working
Group
• In November 2007, the DCMS announced the launch of a new Working
Group to examine the future of the digital radio platform, which will report
back in “late 2008”2
• In December 2007, the DCMS appointed former Channel 4 Deputy
Chairman Barry Fox as Chair of its Digital Radio Working Group.
The Working Group has been charged with answering three questions: under
what conditions would digital listening become the norm; what are the barriers
to growth; and how can those barriers be tackled? Although the Group is
considering ‘digital radio’ as a whole, it is evident that the DAB platform will
figure largely in its discussions. The Group’s first meeting was on 28th
January 2008.
3. Recent Closures/Service Reductions of DAB Radio Stations
• In October 2007, Global Radio announced that its digital-only station, rock-
formatted The Arrow, would dispense with presenters and broadcast back-
to-back music
4. • In November 2007, Scottish Media Group (SMG) announced the closure of
its DAB station Virgin Radio Groove after seven years on-air
• In January 2008, Chill (owned by GCap Media) was removed from the Sky
satellite platform, possibly as a precursor to future removal from the DAB
platform
• In January 2008, national DAB station Core (owned by GCap) closed after
eight years on-air
• In January 2008, national DAB station Oneword closed after nearly eight
years on-air, following the sale of Channel 4’s 51% stake (acquired in 2005
for £1 million) back to UBC Media (which held the remaining 49%) for £1
• In January 2008, Fun Radio (jointly owned by GCap and Hit
Entertainment), relinquished its DAB channels in eight counties and will
now only be available on DAB in London
• In January 2008, Global Radio announced that its digital station Galaxy will
no longer broadcast a dedicated service on four local DAB multiplexes,
and instead will simulcast the analogue Galaxy output.
When the DCMS announced its Digital Radio Working Group in November
2007, its statement noted that there were 18 national digital radio stations, of
which 12 were commercial. In the intervening two months, this number has
already reduced by two, following the closures of Core and Oneword.
Additionally, national digital station Life is expected to close shortly, following
owner GCap’s announcement in July 2007 that further investment will cease.
4. New Stations/New Formats on the DAB Platform
• In October 2007, independently-owned Punjab Radio (available on DAB in
London for the last seven years) launched on DAB in the West Midlands,
replacing Guardian Media Group’s (GMG) Jazz FM
• In October 2007, independently-owned Polish Radio London launched on
DAB in London
• In October 2007, religious station United Christian Broadcasters launched
in five new areas on DAB, adding to its existing DAB coverage in London
and Stoke
• In November 2007, GMG’s Real Radio changed the format of its DAB
service to become the UK’s first all-Christmas song station for the period
until New Year
• In December 2007, Colourful Radio, an independently-owned speech and
music station targeting the black population, announced that it would
broadcast nationally on DAB in 2008
• In January 2008, BFBS Radio (owned by the British Armed Forces)
launched a trial simulcast on national DAB
• In January 2008, independently-owned Rainbow Radio launched on DAB
in London, serving the Ghanaian and West African communities.
The variety of formats offered by digital-only radio services on the DAB
platform has expanded dramatically in recent months. Initially, the platform
had been filled with ‘jukebox’ music stations owned by the same radio
companies that owned the DAB multiplexes on which they were broadcast.
5. Many of these offerings have since been replaced with new, independently-
owned stations that are much more focused on offering niche content
unavailable from the analogue radio platform (‘FM’ and ‘AM’). However, it is
our opinion that this recent influx of innovation may have come too late to
propel a significantly faster uptake of the DAB platform, particularly if the new
stations and the DRDB lack the significant marketing campaign funds that
could stimulate consumer awareness of their content.
Worryingly, this sudden flowering of ethnic, religious and publicly-funded radio
stations on the DAB platform echoes the fate of the ‘AM’ waveband in the
1990s when the radio industry and the regulator had become convinced that
audiences were deserting that platform for the improved audio quality offered
by the ‘FM’ waveband. By 2002, declining audiences of ‘AM’ stations had
persuaded the regulator to suggest that the platform be used in future “for
better serving minority, disadvantaged or currently excluded audience groups,
whether defined by their interests, demographics or ethnicity”.3 The ‘DAB’
platform of 2008, particularly in London, is already starting to resemble the
‘AM’ platform of 1998, suggesting that ‘DAB’ might have already been written
off by the sector as a means to reach the ‘mass market’ audiences that
national advertisers desire from the medium.
The present overcapacity of DAB spectrum is providing access to broadcast
radio for services that would otherwise be restricted to the internet or Sky
satellite. An example is Traffic Radio, a station funded by the government’s
Highways Agency that provides information about road conditions, and which
launched on DAB in July 2007 and is now broadcast in five English regions.
Despite DAB radio receivers being installed in fewer than 1% of cars, Traffic
Radio argues that “drivers can receive huge benefits by planning their
journeys before they set off”. Tellingly, the station admits that its service is not
available on ‘FM’ because the spectrum “would be extremely expensive”.4
5. The BBC National DAB Multiplex
• In October 2007, the BBC announced that, as part of its expenditure
savings, it will cancel new transmitters that would have extended the reach
of its DAB multiplex to 95% of the population.
Table 1
Digital-only radio stations broadcast on the BBC DAB multiplex
* Asian Network is also broadcast on AM in the Midlands.
[Source: Enders Analysis]
The BBC’s five digital-only radio offerings have remained constant since
launch in 2002, and there are presently no plans to extend the portfolio. BBC
Director General Mark Thompson has promised that, despite the licence fee
6. shortfall, the Corporation is “going to go on building support for digital radio”,
although a shift of emphasis appears to be taking place, away from
completion of the DAB platform and towards alternative digital radio delivery
systems (see Digital Radio Switchover – somewhere over the rainbow?
[2007-99]).5 The BBC’s existing network of 96 DAB transmitters covers 86%
of the population at a cost of £6 million per annum, and the plan had been to
extend this to 1,000 transmitters covering 99% of the population at a cost of
£40 million per annum.6 Cutbacks mean that the BBC will go no further than
230 transmitters to cover 90% of the population at a cost of £11 million per
annum.7
6. The Digital One National DAB Multiplex
• In October 2007, Digital One opened a new transmitter in Galashiels
• In November 2007, Digital One opened new transmitters in Workington
and Chesterfield
• In December 2007, Digital One opened new transmitters in Eastbourne,
Bridlington and Tunbridge Wells
• In January 2008, Digital One reportedly started talks with Ofcom regarding
the renewal of its national DAB multiplex licence.
Table 2
Digital-only radio stations broadcast on the Digital One DAB multiplex
[Source: Enders Analysis]
The Digital One multiplex, opened in 1999 with a 12-year licence from Ofcom
(automatically renewable for a further 12 years), is the largest commercial
DAB radio network in the world, and is owned by GCap (63%) and
transmission provider Arqiva (37%). The original licence required Digital One
to offer seven digital-only stations (in addition to simulcasts of the three
national commercial analogue services). Although there was a period between
2000 and 2002 when the full complement of seven stations was broadcast,
the remainder of the time has seen the offerings fall short of the original
licence requirement. At present, only three commercial stations are available
(plus the non-commercial BFBS station on trial). The impending closure by
GCap of Life will reduce that number to two commercial offerings. In contrast
to the BBC, commercial radio’s portfolio of digital-only stations is proving less
permanent.
Although Digital One continued to add more transmitters to its network during
2007, it says that four further locations are “the only plans that we currently
have for new transmitters” between now and mid-2009.8 Its original licence
7. obliged Digital One to achieve “85% coverage of the population” by “the end
of the third year of operation” which it has now fulfilled.9 More imperative for
consumers’ use of the DAB platform is the need to build ‘infill’ relay
transmitters that would improve poor reception issues in many urban areas.
London, for example, has required an additional 14 local DAB relays to
supplement the insufficient signal available in many areas from the main
transmitter at Crystal Palace. This remedial work is making the DAB platform
more expensive to develop than analogue ‘FM’ which proves more technically
robust.
In addition to the recent closures of digital radio stations, the viability of the
Digital One multiplex has also been dented by the failure of the BT Movio
venture to convince consumers of the appeal of watching TV on mobile
phones. BT Movio had leased what Digital One Chairman Ralph Bernard
referred to as “quite a lot of capacity” on the multiplex to broadcast its TV
offerings, and had additionally funded the 14 new DAB relay transmitters in
London.10 The BT Movio contract will expire on 9 June 2008, its revenue
sharing arrangement having yielded little for Digital One.
Digital One Chief Executive Quentin Howard argues that the changing
portfolio of digital radio stations is merely evolutionary: “There are some
commercial groups who’ve said ‘times are not right at the moment for
launching more stations’, but there are other people coming along saying ‘no,
that’s fine, that’s an opportunity for us, we are new players and we will come
into the market’”.11 However, the exodus of stations from the DAB platform is
starting to look like a stampede, started by Primetime in 2006, and continued
since then by GCap, Global Radio and SMG. With three of the largest radio
groups having reduced their commitment to the DAB platform in recent
months, their stations having been replaced by a mix of ethnic, religious and
non-commercial broadcasters, the future health of the DAB platform must be
under question.
GCap Group Head of Strategy Will Harding commented: "The only people
who make money out of DAB are the transmission companies. That’s why we
are seeing radio groups pull stations off DAB, in many cases before they
launch. It’s because they are not commercially viable".12 In his former role as
GCap Chief Executive, Ralph Bernard had threatened that the company might
be forced to bail out of the DAB platform altogether: “At GCap, we are
seriously considering whether to continue with our digital stations. It costs us
£8 million a year to run an analogue station, while it costs us £15 million to run
a digital station. Where’s the logic in that? It can’t be sustained".13
7. The Channel 4 National DAB Multiplex
• In October 2007, Global Radio cancelled its joint venture with BSkyB to
launch a national news station Sky News Radio on the Channel 4 multiplex
in 2008
8. • In November 2007, SMG announced it would not proceed with a new
station aimed at women, Virgin Radio Viva, that was to be launched on the
Channel 4 multiplex
• In December 2007, Channel 4 announced that the launch of its speech-
formatted digital radio station, intended to compete with BBC Radio 4,
would be postponed from January 2009 to April 2009
• In December 2007, Channel 4 appointed BBC Radio Five Live Controller
Bob Shennan as its Director Of Radio.
Table 3
Digital-only radio stations planned for broadcast on the Channel 4 DAB
multiplex
[Source: Enders Analysis]
Whilst there may be doubts over the viability of the existing Digital One DAB
multiplex, a much bigger question mark hangs over the planned launch in
2008 of a second commercial national multiplex by Channel 4. Despite
mounting evidence that the DAB platform was insufficiently mature to support
further commercial radio stations (see Channel 4: radio ambitions aim too
high [2007-58e]), Ofcom forged ahead with advertising a second multiplex
licence. Then, only two months after having awarded the licence in July 2007,
Ofcom indicated that a DCMS Working Group would “be set up to think about
some of those longer term issues around the desirability of a future switchover
to digital”.14
The new Channel 4 multiplex will more than double the capacity for national
digital-only stations, at a time when the first multiplex is already facing an
issue with DAB overcapacity. GCap Financial Director Wendy Pallott has
explained: “A lot of our brands are on multiplexes to fill the slots and actually,
if someone else wanted to come along and be on those multiplexes, they
would be on those multiplexes”.15 The Channel 4 multiplex can only worsen
this glut of spectrum, by adding a further ten national digital radio channels to
the seven already carried by Digital One (the remaining three spaces on
Digital One are reserved specifically in its licence for simulcasts of the three
national analogue stations).
Very little information has emerged in recent months about the progress
Channel 4 is making with the building of its national DAB network, though the
licence requires 174 transmitters to be on-air by July 2008. With the DCMS
Working Group not expected to conclude its work until the end of 2008,
Channel 4 is faced with the prospect of launching a substantial, new
broadcast portfolio into an atmosphere of immense uncertainty about the
9. whole future of the DAB platform. As one commentator asked recently: “…as
the web becomes the principal platform for audio content, is Channel 4 taking
unnecessary risks for a commercial public service broadcaster?”16
At issue here is Ofcom’s timing of the award of the second DAB multiplex
licence, which some argue was ill-judged. Digital One chief executive Quentin
Howard commented: “Ofcom, in their wisdom, decided that there was a need
for more multiplex capacity and awarded a national licence to Channel 4. We
did tell them that now was not the time because commercial radio is finding it
tough……”17
By July 2007, Ofcom had already been made aware of many strategic
problems concerning the DAB platform, notably:
• “Few of the digital-only services on Digital One have been marketed
aggressively”18
• “Awareness and reach conversion [of digital-only stations] is not keeping
pace with the rise in DAB digital radio penetration”19
• “Over the past three years, there is no discernible positive [listening] trend
for any of the [digital-only] services on Digital One, except for Planet
Rock”20
• “Despite increasing DAB penetration, the proportion of listening generated
by DAB homes to these [Digital One digital-only] services has not altered
significantly”21
• “DAB digital radio listeners are primarily using their DAB radios to tune in
to established [analogue] services”22
• “Newcomers to DAB digital radio are primarily replacement set purchasers
who have not been motivated by the prospect of new channels or
improved functionality”23
• “The lack of development of DAB digital radio in cars is also a possible
threat to its development”24
• “There is [advertising agency] dissatisfaction not only with the current
digital radio offering as an advertising medium …. [but also] that too many
of the existing stations sound alike and are trying to appeal to the same
people”.25
These were just some of the many issues around the DAB platform identified
in research commissioned by National Grid Wireless (NGW), whose
application for the multiplex was rejected by Ofcom in favour of Channel 4’s.
NGW adopted an evidential approach to determining the consumer viewpoint
on the DAB platform and proposed remedial actions as a matter of urgency.
Ofcom rejected these plans in favour of a proposal that was more optimistic
about the platform’s future. (Additionally, Ofcom faced the problem that, prior
to its licence award, NGW had been acquired by Macquarie Bank, which
already owned Arqiva, a significant shareholder in the existing Digital One
multiplex.)26
The Parties Seeking Solutions
10. Even before the conclusions of the DCMS Working Group on digital radio are
delivered at the end of 2008, there are parties who require some kind of
urgent resolution to the problems they face with the DAB platform. “The digital
radio industry is at a fork in the road,” notes UBC Media Chief Executive
Simon Cole. “There are two routes it can take. If it gets it wrong, it could end
up down a muddy path in a dead end”.27
GCap Media has all but admitted defeat in its attempt to monetise the Digital
One multiplex by populating it with its own brands. The recent departure of its
‘DAB evangelist’ Chief Executive Ralph Bernard (see GCap Media – the end
of the road [2008-01]), coupled with the Board’s need to stave off acquisition
by Global Radio, will force it to be pragmatic and consider either divestment of
part or all of its 63% stake in Digital One.
Channel 4 is faced with the task of imminently launching a brand new DAB
multiplex in the middle of a snowstorm around the future of the whole
platform. Recognising that “the construction of a transmitter network is a
considerable investment”, Channel 4 has wisely arranged that it “will not bear
the cash costs of network construction” under its agreement with Arqiva, who
will “build and manage” the transmitters and charge Channel 4 a quarterly fee
in advance.28
Arqiva has fingers in almost every DAB multiplex. It had signed a contract
with the BBC in 2006 to supply new DAB transmission services until 2023,
though the BBC has since capped further development of its DAB network.29
Arqiva has the contract for the Digital One national DAB multiplex, whose
licence expires in 2011, but where little further expansion is evident. Now,
Arqiva has just signed a similar 12-year contract to build a further national
DAB multiplex for Channel 4. It has also built and maintains 42 out of the 46
local DAB multiplexes for commercial radio.30 If the DAB platform were to fail,
Arqiva might still be able to extract payments for the remaining terms of these
contracts, but it would be left with a small mountain of redundant DAB
transmission equipment and the loss of future DAB contracts.
Ofcom faces a public outcry if the DAB platform were to fail, with owners of
the 6.45 million DAB receivers sold to date demanding a refund of their
purchases (remember ‘ITV Digital’?).31 Ofcom will also wish to avoid a crisis of
consumer confidence in the DAB platform that might be precipitated by either
Digital One or Channel 4 publicly returning their multiplex licence. However,
the regulator (and more so its predecessor, The Radio Authority) will be
forced to accept some responsibility for the present DAB situation and will
have to demonstrate flexibility in accepting remedies.
These four parties need to urgently bang their heads together to solve the
present impasse over the future of DAB, particularly before Arqiva progresses
too far with the substantial work involved in building a second national DAB
network for Channel 4, an infrastructure that might quickly prove wholly
redundant. As Digital One Chairman Ralph Bernard sees it: “In the context of
two national multiplexes, at a time when there has never been more pressure
on the commercial sector, investors find it a problem to accept a long-term
11. payback, and we need Ofcom and government to help the industry with
that”.32
Practical solutions will not be found without the swallowing of a certain amount
of pride. GCap now really only needs space on a national DAB multiplex (and
not necessarily one that it owns) for Planet Rock and the simulcast of Classic
FM. Channel 4 could more effectively focus its marketing effort on a smaller
number of ‘high quality’ digital radio brands to compete more effectively with
BBC network radio for audiences, rather than offering the public a large
bouquet of stations. A single national commercial radio DAB multiplex, instead
of two, that would be owned by some combination of Arqiva, Channel 4 (and
maybe GCap), would reduce the future risk for all parties and enable a greater
part of broadcasters’ budgets to be switched from infrastructure to content.
For Arqiva, the present uncertainty around the DAB platform comes at a time
when it is already embroiled in the massive task of TV digital switchover,
which is estimated to be costing the UK £2.2 billion in total.
Conclusion
If 2007 was the year that radio owners finally faced the unwelcome truth that
the DAB platform was never going to be a complete replacement for
analogue, which they had long dreamt of, then 2008 will be the year that the
industry is forced to find practical remedies to its DAB problem. The resultant
solution might not prove to be particularly elegant but, more importantly, it
needs to be pragmatic. In the meantime, the radio sector needs to stop
continually beating its chest in public about the wonders of DAB, and instead
partake in an honest industry debate about the future of the platform.
Admirably, an early contributor to such a ‘DAB Truth Commission’ would be
Nick Piggott, Head of Creative Technology at GCap, who has led the group’s
(and predecessor GWR’s) digital radio policy since 1998, and who
commented recently:
“Simply owning spectrum and putting out cookie-cutter replicas of
analogue radio stations and analogue radio sets met the crude targets
of ‘successful digital’… Commercial Radio frittered away the rich years
by not investing enough in digital product evolution. A vast proportion
(95%+) of the money allocated to digital was sucked into appalling
infrastructure contracts, which are wholly unwarranted, and do not
stand up to close inspection. Those costs became the headlines, and
endanger the short-term prospects for the platform. They also took
valuable cash away from the product evolution which would ultimately
have created new value in radio”.33
On the very same day that Piggott was pouring out his heart over the closure
of the Core digital radio station he had launched in 1999, Digital One Chief
Executive Quentin Howard was still insistent on repeating the same old
industry mantra: “Is DAB the right platform for digital radio for the UK? The
answer is very clearly ‘yes’”.34 Yet, while the BBC is currently spending £9.6
13. 20 Ibid. p.49.
21 Ibid. p.50.
22 Ibid. p.54.
23 Ibid. p.58.
24 Ibid. p.69.
25 Ibid. p.84.
26 This transaction is currently the subject of a Competition Commission enquiry that will
complete on 18 March 2008.
27 James Ashton. ‘Investors turned off by returns on digital radio’, The Times, 9 December
2007.
28 4digital Group. National Multiplex Application, March 2007, pp.61 & 76.
29 BBC. Joint press release: BBC and Arqiva take major step towards Digital Switch Over,
press release, 18 September 2006.
30 Arqiva. Arqiva response to Ofcom consultation on The Future Of Radio, [undated].
31 Digital Radio Development Bureau. DAB digital radio sales light up Christmas, press
release, 22 January 2008.
32 James Ashton. ‘Investors turned off by returns on digital radio’, The Times, 9 December
2007.
33 Nick Piggott. Blog, 12 January 2008, http://nick.piggott.name/blog/
34 BBC Radio 4. Today, interview, 12 January 2008.
35 Deloitte & Touche LLP. BBC Trust: The BBC’s Efficient And Effective Use Of Spectrum,
December 2007, p.40.
RadioCentre. Letter to Competition Commission, 14 September 2007, p.2.
36 Enders Analysis estimates
37 The Local Radio Company. Analyst presentation, London, 5 December 2007.