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The Foundation of Knowledge-based Economy   Chi Schive President of  Taiwan Academy of Banking and Finance
Outlines ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
全球化趨勢 (1984-98) 84-88  89-93  94-98 84-88  89-93  94-98 84-88  89-93  94-98 商品貿易量成長率 (%) 全球產出成長率 (%) 商品貿易量成長/全球產出成長 ( 倍數) 全球化趨勢下,貿易障礙減少,全球經濟活動與貿易互動關係日益緊密。 I.l  全球化趨勢
06/07/09 區域化趨勢 東亞經濟區域內貿易盛行,我國對外貿易亞太化。 I.l  全球化趨勢
全球流入開發中國家、亞洲新興工業國家及轉型中社會主義國家之民間資金於 1990 年代大幅跳升。 註 :  1. 民間資金淨流入包括直接投資淨額、證券投資淨額、銀行貸款及其他投資淨額。 2.  亞洲新興工業國包括香港、韓國、新加坡、台灣。  3.  每年平均。 資料來源 :  IMF , World Economic Outlook , December 1999. 10 億美元 新興市場資金流入情形 (1984-99) I.l  全球化趨勢
06/07/09 1995 1996 1997 1998  1999 600 400 200 0 -200 -370 資料來源 :  World Investment Report  1999. 全球民間資金流入亞洲金融危機五國概況 億美元 外人直接投資 證券投資 外銀貸款 外國銀行對亞洲金融風暴受創國貸款大幅波動是金融風暴主因;外人直接投資相當穩定;外人證券投資也相對穩定。 I.l Globalization
The Tonne Age   Industrial revolution - 1950s   Steel, ships, textile, construction The Kilo Age   1960s   Cars, consumer electronics, appliances The Gram Age   1970s - 1980s   Micro electronics, robotics The Vacuum Age   1990s   Services, systems, media Production Technology in History Source: Slightly revised from Jean-Pierre Lehmann,“The Future of the Asia Pacific Economies: Dynamism of Trade and Investment” presented at APEC Economic Committee Symposium  The Future of Asia Pacific Economies , December 6 1999, Tokyo. I.2 Production Technology
資訊傳遞速度 I.2 Production Technology
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],成本/交易 US$  1.07 US$  0.54 US$  0.27 US$  0.015 US$  0.010 服務通道趨勢-銀行處理成本 Source: Booz Allen & Hamilton research (1996/North American) ll.2 Production Technology
Lowering Real Inventory-to-Sales Ratios Ratio of Inventory to Sales in the U.S. ll.2 ProductionTechnology
資  訊  傳  遞  速  度 l.2 Production Technology
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],成本/交易 US$  1.07 US$  0.54 US$  0.27 US$  0.015 US$  0.010 服務通道趨勢-銀行處理成本 Source: Booz Allen & Hamilton research (1996/North American) l.2 Production Technology
Lowering Real Inventory-to-Sales Ratios Ratio of Inventory to Sales in the U.S. l.2 Production Technology
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The New Economy: Record-Breaking Expansion in the U.S.  ll. New Economy
The U.S.’s Relative Performance United States Advanced Economies EU Japan Real GDP Growth 1991=100 Source:  IMF,  World Economic Outlook , September 2000. ll. New Economy
Unemployment in Japan, Taiwan and the U.S., 1981-1999 U.S. Taiwan Japan % ll. New Economy
Current and Previous Expansions in the U.S. Average annual change % Note: 1. Output per hour in non-farm business sectors. 2. Difference in 2-year average annual inflation rate from that of preceding 2 years. Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). ll. New Economy
Labor Capital ICT The Foundation of the ICT Industry R&D People Venture Capital Institutional Setting lll. ICT Industry
資訊科技 (IT) 產業市值占股市總市值比率 資料來源 :  1. IMF,  World Economic Outlook , September 2000 。 2 .  臺灣證券交易所。 lll. ICT Industry
Development of the World Derivative Market 註:係各年底契約總金額,商品種類包括期貨、選擇權、換匯及換利等。  資料來源: BIS, Annual Report, 各期 lll. ICT Industry
New v.s. Old Work Arrangements Source: Richard B. Freeman, “The Shared Capitalist Model of Work and Welfare,” presented in The APEC Forum on Shared Prosperity and Harmony, March 31 - April 1, 2000, Seoul.  lV. Labor Market Reform
New v.s. Old Welfare Arrangements Source: Richard B. Freeman, “The Shared Capitalist Model of Work and Welfare,” presented in The APEC Forum on Shared Prosperity and Harmony, March 31 - April 1, 2000, Seoul.  I lV. Labor Market Reform
Shared Compensation System - Linking Pay to Group or Company Performance Source: Richard Freeman. lV. Labor Market Reform
Benefits under Different Work Scenarios *Single parent works full-time at minimum wage. Source: Richard B. Freeman, “The Shared Capitalist Model of Work and Welfare,” presented in The APEC Forum on Shared Prosperity and Harmony, March 31 - April 1, 2000, Seoul.  I lV. Labor Market Reform
Productivity Growth Change v.s. Administrative Regulation, between 1980-90 and 1990-98 Difference in Productivity growth rates  Indicator of administration regulation Source: Andrea Bassanini, Stefano Scarpetta and Ignazio Visco, “Knowledge, Technology and Economic Growth: Recent Evidence from OECD Countries,”  OECD Economic Department Working Papers No. 259, October 2000. lV. Labor Market Reform
Productivity Growth Change v.s. Employment Protection Legislation, between 1980-90 and 1990-98 Indicator of employment protection legislation Difference in Productivity growth rates  Source: Andrea Bassanini, Stefano Scarpetta and Ignazio Visco, “Knowledge, Technology and Economic Growth: Recent Evidence from OECD Countries,”  OECD Economic Department Working Papers No. 259, October 2000. Correlation coefficient -0.57 lV. Labor Market Reform
Functions of Financial Sector ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Savings Financial Sector Fund Short Long Insurance Investment Consumption Production 1 4 4 5 4 Capital Market (Direct Finance) Banking (Indirect Finance) 2 3 V. Challenges Ahead
Red blood cells Delivering oxygen, nutrients, hormones... White blood cells Looking out for signs of disease and producing antibodies and attacking  ,[object Object],[object Object],V. Challenges Ahead
金融部門 : 分配資金 潛在投資人 生產順利 土地 勞工 設備 投資失敗 壞帳 資金提功者 Resource Acquisition/Allocation Inefficient Allocation Efficient Allocation (WBC) Case approved Investment Proposals (RBC) Resource  Deprivation 金融分配資源之功能 V. Challenges Ahead
Causes   of rising NPLs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],V. Challenges Ahead
06/07/09 Non-Performing Loans in Taiwan, 2000 Note: Local credit unions’ NPLs ratio of 15% is not included. NPL ratios estimated by different organizations. V. Challenges Ahead
Challenges from WTO Entry ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],V. Challenges Ahead
Reform Remained in the Financial Market ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],V. Challenges Ahead
Reform Remained in the Financial Market ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],V. Challenges Ahead
Knowledge-Based Rule-Based Knowledge-based/ New Economy IV. Conclusion
“ Adam Smith’s economy grows to its ‘full complement of riches’ as permitted by its laws and institutions, and there it rests.” Arthur W. Lewis, 1984 Institutions matter IV. Conclusion

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The Foundation of KBE

  • 1. The Foundation of Knowledge-based Economy Chi Schive President of Taiwan Academy of Banking and Finance
  • 2.
  • 3. 全球化趨勢 (1984-98) 84-88 89-93 94-98 84-88 89-93 94-98 84-88 89-93 94-98 商品貿易量成長率 (%) 全球產出成長率 (%) 商品貿易量成長/全球產出成長 ( 倍數) 全球化趨勢下,貿易障礙減少,全球經濟活動與貿易互動關係日益緊密。 I.l 全球化趨勢
  • 5. 全球流入開發中國家、亞洲新興工業國家及轉型中社會主義國家之民間資金於 1990 年代大幅跳升。 註 : 1. 民間資金淨流入包括直接投資淨額、證券投資淨額、銀行貸款及其他投資淨額。 2. 亞洲新興工業國包括香港、韓國、新加坡、台灣。 3. 每年平均。 資料來源 : IMF , World Economic Outlook , December 1999. 10 億美元 新興市場資金流入情形 (1984-99) I.l 全球化趨勢
  • 6. 06/07/09 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 600 400 200 0 -200 -370 資料來源 : World Investment Report 1999. 全球民間資金流入亞洲金融危機五國概況 億美元 外人直接投資 證券投資 外銀貸款 外國銀行對亞洲金融風暴受創國貸款大幅波動是金融風暴主因;外人直接投資相當穩定;外人證券投資也相對穩定。 I.l Globalization
  • 7. The Tonne Age Industrial revolution - 1950s Steel, ships, textile, construction The Kilo Age 1960s Cars, consumer electronics, appliances The Gram Age 1970s - 1980s Micro electronics, robotics The Vacuum Age 1990s Services, systems, media Production Technology in History Source: Slightly revised from Jean-Pierre Lehmann,“The Future of the Asia Pacific Economies: Dynamism of Trade and Investment” presented at APEC Economic Committee Symposium The Future of Asia Pacific Economies , December 6 1999, Tokyo. I.2 Production Technology
  • 9.
  • 10. Lowering Real Inventory-to-Sales Ratios Ratio of Inventory to Sales in the U.S. ll.2 ProductionTechnology
  • 11. 資 訊 傳 遞 速 度 l.2 Production Technology
  • 12.
  • 13. Lowering Real Inventory-to-Sales Ratios Ratio of Inventory to Sales in the U.S. l.2 Production Technology
  • 14.
  • 15. The U.S.’s Relative Performance United States Advanced Economies EU Japan Real GDP Growth 1991=100 Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook , September 2000. ll. New Economy
  • 16. Unemployment in Japan, Taiwan and the U.S., 1981-1999 U.S. Taiwan Japan % ll. New Economy
  • 17. Current and Previous Expansions in the U.S. Average annual change % Note: 1. Output per hour in non-farm business sectors. 2. Difference in 2-year average annual inflation rate from that of preceding 2 years. Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce (Bureau of Economic Analysis) and Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics). ll. New Economy
  • 18. Labor Capital ICT The Foundation of the ICT Industry R&D People Venture Capital Institutional Setting lll. ICT Industry
  • 19. 資訊科技 (IT) 產業市值占股市總市值比率 資料來源 : 1. IMF, World Economic Outlook , September 2000 。 2 . 臺灣證券交易所。 lll. ICT Industry
  • 20. Development of the World Derivative Market 註:係各年底契約總金額,商品種類包括期貨、選擇權、換匯及換利等。 資料來源: BIS, Annual Report, 各期 lll. ICT Industry
  • 21. New v.s. Old Work Arrangements Source: Richard B. Freeman, “The Shared Capitalist Model of Work and Welfare,” presented in The APEC Forum on Shared Prosperity and Harmony, March 31 - April 1, 2000, Seoul. lV. Labor Market Reform
  • 22. New v.s. Old Welfare Arrangements Source: Richard B. Freeman, “The Shared Capitalist Model of Work and Welfare,” presented in The APEC Forum on Shared Prosperity and Harmony, March 31 - April 1, 2000, Seoul. I lV. Labor Market Reform
  • 23. Shared Compensation System - Linking Pay to Group or Company Performance Source: Richard Freeman. lV. Labor Market Reform
  • 24. Benefits under Different Work Scenarios *Single parent works full-time at minimum wage. Source: Richard B. Freeman, “The Shared Capitalist Model of Work and Welfare,” presented in The APEC Forum on Shared Prosperity and Harmony, March 31 - April 1, 2000, Seoul. I lV. Labor Market Reform
  • 25. Productivity Growth Change v.s. Administrative Regulation, between 1980-90 and 1990-98 Difference in Productivity growth rates Indicator of administration regulation Source: Andrea Bassanini, Stefano Scarpetta and Ignazio Visco, “Knowledge, Technology and Economic Growth: Recent Evidence from OECD Countries,” OECD Economic Department Working Papers No. 259, October 2000. lV. Labor Market Reform
  • 26. Productivity Growth Change v.s. Employment Protection Legislation, between 1980-90 and 1990-98 Indicator of employment protection legislation Difference in Productivity growth rates Source: Andrea Bassanini, Stefano Scarpetta and Ignazio Visco, “Knowledge, Technology and Economic Growth: Recent Evidence from OECD Countries,” OECD Economic Department Working Papers No. 259, October 2000. Correlation coefficient -0.57 lV. Labor Market Reform
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29. 金融部門 : 分配資金 潛在投資人 生產順利 土地 勞工 設備 投資失敗 壞帳 資金提功者 Resource Acquisition/Allocation Inefficient Allocation Efficient Allocation (WBC) Case approved Investment Proposals (RBC) Resource Deprivation 金融分配資源之功能 V. Challenges Ahead
  • 30.
  • 31. 06/07/09 Non-Performing Loans in Taiwan, 2000 Note: Local credit unions’ NPLs ratio of 15% is not included. NPL ratios estimated by different organizations. V. Challenges Ahead
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35. Knowledge-Based Rule-Based Knowledge-based/ New Economy IV. Conclusion
  • 36. “ Adam Smith’s economy grows to its ‘full complement of riches’ as permitted by its laws and institutions, and there it rests.” Arthur W. Lewis, 1984 Institutions matter IV. Conclusion

Editor's Notes

  1. Lecture for Bank of Taiwan, May 21, 2001