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Welcome        to      D.Net’s
 Protifolon, a new policy
 briefing series that highlights
 cutting edge thinking on the
 emerging issues affecting
 Bangladesh.       This    first
 edition examines the Global
 Financial Crisis (GFC) in the
 context of trade, exports
 migration and remittances
 and               summarises
 recommendations for policy
 makers.
                                                                                                                       01

Overview                                      Additionally the Bank has         extended period. Trade, migration
                                         taken measures to stabilise the        and remittance are the most likely
      Since the collapse of the
                                         exchange rate, provide extra           sectors to be impacted as 43.3%
United States sub prime mortgage
                                         liquidity to the financial sector and   of Bangladesh’s openness is
market and the subsequent
                                         raised the limit on private foreign
international global crisis, many                                               related to trade and 10 % to
                                         borrowing. It has also relaxed the
developed        and      developing                                            remittance.              Overseas
                                         conditions for opening fresh
countries have been plunged into                                                Development Assistance (ODA)
                                         letters of credit (L/Cs).
deep       recession.    Bangladesh
                                                                                and Foreign Direct Investment
though has found itself in a slightly         In February 2009, the Finance     (FDI) may also be vulnerable in the
different position. Its economy is       Minister AMA Muhith admitted
                                                                                longer term but to a lesser extent
not so dependent on international        that the global financial crisis was
                                                                                due to only 3.2% integration with
capital and foreign investment,          having an impact on trade in
which has helped to lower the                                                   the global economy (CPD and
                                         Bangladesh.      In    April     the
immediate impact of the crisis.                                                 ILO, 2009).
                                         Government announced their
      Despite this the Bangladesh        stimulus package with 65 million           Whilst the longer term nature
government        has    formed      a   dollars directed to assist exports.    of FDI commitments has kept the
high-level technical committee           This though falls short of the 877     net inflow of investment relatively
and taskforce to monitor and             million dollars needed according
                                                                                stable, the sluggish growth of rich
advise on the crisis, and ministries     to industry experts (Yahoo news,
                                                                                countries may eventually slow it
and financial institutions have           2009).
taken       several    precautionary                                            down. Aid receipts (excluding
                                             During    2008,    57%     of
measures. Importantly in October                                                dollars) are providing less in local
                                         Bangladesh’s     economy     was
2008 Bangladesh Bank withdrew                                                   currency due to unfavourable
                                         involved in the global economy
90 % of its total investment from                                               exchange rates and future aid
                                         and this is increasing. This
foreign banks which has helped to
                                                                                commitments from donors may be
                                         indicates that the country might
further shield the economy, so that
                                                                                in jeopardy if the downturn
it is only now that the affects of the   be progressively more affected
                                                                                continues.
crisis are being felt.                   should the crisis continue for an
Impact on trade                       Within the RMG sector predictions
                                           suggest that whilst overall RMG
         The health of Bangladesh’s
                                           orders may decline it may not all
     economy depends significantly on
                                           be bad news. Consumer cost
     foreign trade. Almost 90% of
                                           cutting in the developed countries
     exports are targeted to United
                                           may actually increase demand for
     States, European Union and other
                                           lower priced products (the
     developed      countries.    Rising
                                           so-called Wal-Mart effect) – a
     unemployment, the subsequent
                                           section of the market well suited
     decline in disposable income and
                                                                                   The
                                           to Bangladesh producers.                         phase    of    being
     declining consumer confidence in
                                                                                   indifferent and complacent
                                                Demand for workers has
     these markets could have serious
                                           remained steady in the RMG              is over. From the indications
     impacts on export potential.
                                           sector because of the positive          that we are receiving from
     Although exports showed robust
                                           growth in the second half of last
                                                                                   the exporters, from the
     growth        (19.4%)       during
                                           year. However stimulus packages
                                                                                   migrant workers, and also
     July-December        2008,     they
                                           in competing countries are
     registered     negative     growth                                            from the production sectors,
                                           beginning to impact the demand
     (-1.4%)       during      October-                                            we think that there are signs
                                           for labour in the textile sector. For
     December 2008, (Bangladesh                                                    of some slowdown. It would
                                           example      12    spinning     mills
     Bank, 2009) – the worst figures in     reportedly         closed          as   be smart for us to take some
     recent history. All other sectors     manufacturers began procuring           steps in order to address the
     also registered negative growth       yarn from India at lower prices.
                                                                                   emerging concerns.
                                           (CPD, 2009)
     during this period. The World Bank
     forecasted that due to slower                                                          Dr. Mustafizur Rahman
                                                Policy makers and other
02                                                                                         Executive Director, CPD
     activity in the export sector         institutions are being urged to
     services growth will fall to the      consider the following measures
                                                                                   For complete interview visit:
                                           to limit damage to the trade sector
     range of 5.8% to 6.7% in                                                      http://www.bdresearch.org.bd/gfc
                                           [BIDS, 2009 and CPD, 2009]:             /interview.htm
     FY2008.
                                              closely monitor the RMG
         In Bangladesh Ready Made
                                              sectors   particularly  order
     Garments (RMG) makes up about                                                   provide cash subsidy and
                                              volume, export trends, export
     three quarters of total exports.                                                incentives to support affected
                                              prices and composition of
     Other major exports include                                                     industries and workers
                                              exported products
     frozen foods and leather goods.
                                                                                     consider a low-interest credit
                                                                                     facility to affected frozen food
                                                                                     firms
                                                                                     provide cash incentives for a
                                                                                     limited period to finished
                                                                                     leather producers in order to
                                                                                     be competitive with China,
                                                                                     Morocco and India
                                                                                     withdraw duties and VAT
                                                                                     (Value Added Tax) on inputs
                                                                                     and machineries
                                                                                     increase the efficiency of
                                                                                     customs,    ports,    and
                                                          Source : Freefoto.com
                                                                                     infrastructure
Impact on migration
and remittance
     Bangladesh is the fifth highest
remittance-earning country in the
world and is the second largest
sector in the country which is
integrated    with    the     world
economy. About 1.7 million
workers left Bangladesh in search
of jobs during 2007 and 2008 and
about five million Bangladeshis
are currently working abroad,
mainly in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and
Malaysia.
                                                                                Source : Centre for Policy Dialouge (CPD)
    In 2009, it is predicted that the
number of workers going abroad          the    Middle      East        have    drawing on varied research,
will be significantly lower with         accumulated large reserves of oil,     shows the impact that remittance
UAE, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia and         migrant workers will still be in       can have in reducing vulnerability,
Singapore already struggling with       demand, but a World Bank report        providing financial safety nets and
slow economic growth and                suggests Bangladesh needs to           improving areas such as access to
declining demand for construction       create an additional one million       education and household debt.
and other services [CPD and ILO,        jobs for the people likely to lose         The IOM report suggests that
2009]. Overall remittances during       jobs at home and abroad (Asian         the dependency on this income
2008 were 37.3% higher than the                                                                                             03
                                        Tribune, 2009). Any downward           can create serious issues when
previous year but since August          trend is likely to create issues for   the    political or    economic
2008 they showed a decreasing           the receiving families.                circumstances in the destination
trend as did the number of
                                                                               countries change and that “the
                                            A      2005     International
workers     travelling     overseas
                                                                               importance of remittances for the
                                        Organization for Migration (IOM)
[Bangladesh         Bank,      2009].                                          receiving family cannot be
                                        report examines the utilisation of
Bangladesh Bank suggests that                                                  underestimated.”
                                        remittance in Bangladesh and,
because the oil rich countries of
                                                                                   For the migrants working
                                                                               abroad as well, economic crises
                                                                               can exacerbate already difficult
                                                                               conditions as their host countries
                                                                               become       more       constrained.
                                                                               Concerns include inadequate
                                                                               access to decent living and
                                                                               working conditions, cuts in social
                                                                               service     provision,    fear    of
                                                                               xenophobic attacks and restricted
                                                                               access to worker rights (IOM,
                                                                               2009). Whilst evidence for this in
                                                                               relation to Bangladeshi workers is
                                                                               difficult to find, it is important in
                                                                               the growing turmoil to safeguard
                                                                               against human right violations.
                                                                                    So what measures can be
                                                       Source : IRIN News      introduced to protect migrant
workers and their families? Whilst                        Qatar           through          diplomatic
                                                                                                                    Recommended readings
     Bangladesh Bank have sought to                            intervention
                                                                                                                    1. Macroeconomic Management in
     improve          the       efficiency          of          examine           further        alternative            the Face of Global Challenges,
     transferring           remittance,           the                                                                  Centre for Policy Dialogue,
                                                               migrant destinations including
                                                                                                                       March                    2009.
     Bangladesh           Government             has           Iraq,           Bahrain,         Mauritius,
                                                                                                                       http://cpd.org.bd/downloads/M
     devised       a seven point strategy                      Sudan, Libya, and South Africa                          acro-Management.pdf
     which includes extending existing
                                                               seek technical and financial                          2. Global Financial Crisis and
     manpower markets and exploring
                                                                                                                       Bangladesh,        Bangladesh
                                                               support from the ILO and
     new host countries in Europe.                                                                                     Institute   of    Development
                                                               initiate         memorandums                 of         Studies,      March      2009.
     However in April’s emergency
                                                               understanding                        (MOUs)             http://www.bids-bd.org/images/
     stimulus        package          remittances
                                                                                                                       pre_GFC_16Mar09_Ahsan.pdf
                                                               between Bangladesh and the
     were absent (New Age, 2009). To
                                                                                                                    3. Navigating the Global Financial
                                                               destination countries of the
     protect migrants abroad and to try
                                                                                                                       Storm:      Challenges      for
                                                               migrants. These MOUs could
     and retain remittance levels the                                                                                  Bangladesh, Bangladesh Bank,
                                                               contain basic rights such as full                       November                 2008.
     Government need to prioritise this
                                                                                                                       http://www.bangladesh-bank.or
                                                               wages every month and safe
     issue.
                                                                                                                       g/research/policypaper/pp0903.
                                                               working conditions
                                                                                                                       pdf
     Recommendations include:
                                                                 For           returning         migrants           4. Impact of the Global Economic
         agree steps with Saudi Arabia
                                                           provisions should be put in place                           Crisis on the Employment and
         and    Kuwait    to    protect
                                                                                                                       Labour Market of Bangladesh,
                                                           to assist in their repatriation,
         Bangladeshi’s working there
                                                                                                                       Centre for Policy Dialogue,
                                                           reception and reintegration and                             January                   2009
         ensure       good        relations       are
                                                           Official Development Assistance                              http://cpd.org.bd/pub_attach/o
         maintained            with        existing
                                                                                                                       p80.pdf
                                                           (ODA) could be increased to
         migrant destinations such as
04                                                                                                                  5. Global Financial Crisis: Impact
                                                           create employment opportunities.
         UAE, Malaysia, Oman, and
                                                                                                                       on      Bangladesh,       D.Net
                                                                                                                       Bangladesh, October 2008
      References:
                                                                                                                       http://www.bdresearch.org
      Asian Tribune (2009) World Bank suggests Bangladesh to create 1 million additional jobs for people
           likely to lose jobs at home and abroad URL: http://www.asiantribune.com/?q=node/16786
                                                                                                                    6. National Policy Responses to
      Bangladesh      Bank     (2009)    Bangladesh      Bank     Economic                Trends;        URL:          the Financial and Economic
           http://www.bangladesh-bank.org/pub/monthly/econtrds/econtrds.html
                                                                                                                       Crisis: The Case of Bangladesh,
      Centre for Policy Dialogue (2009) Macroeconomic Management in the Face of Global Challenges;
                                                                                                                       ILO,        January        2009
           URL: http://www.cpd.org.bd/downloads/Macro-Management.pdf
                                                                                                                       http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/gro
      Centre for Policy Dialogue and International Labour Organization (2009) Impact of the Global
                                                                                                                       ups/public/---asia/---ro-bangko
           Economic Crisis on the Employment and Labour Market of Bangladesh; URL:
                                                                                                                       k/documents/meetingdocument
           http://www.cpd.org.bd/pub_attach/op80.pdf
                                                                                                                       /wcms_101570.pdf
      International Organization for Migration (2009) IOM (2009) The impact of the global financial crisis on
            migration;                                                                                 URL:
                                                                                                                    7. Bangladesh Economic Update
            http://www.iom.int/jahia/webdav/shared/shared/mainsite/policy_and_research/policy_docum
            ents/policy_brief_jan2009.pdf                                                                             world       Bank,       2009
      New     Age      Business   (April 2009)     Stimulus            fails     to   satisfy       exporters;        http://www.adb.org/Documents
            URL:http://www.newagebd.com/2009/apr/20/busi.html
                                                                                                                      /Economic_Updates/BAN/2008/
      Yahoo   News     (2009)  Bangladesh    unveils   500-mln-dlr   stimulus package;   URL:
                                                                                                                      QEU-Dec-2008.pdf
          http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090419/wl_sthasia_afp/financeeconomybangladeshstimulus_
          20090419113815;_ylt=AtvG3srd4SYuAbp9zGMHy4AAS5Z4


     The series is brought to you by Bangladesh
     Online     Research       Network         (BORN)
     www.bdresearch.org     an     information     and
     knowledge intermediation initiative of D.Net.


                                                                Published under bdresearch programme of D.Net (Development Research Network), 6/8,
                                                                Humayun Road, Block B, Mohammadpur, Dhaka 1207, Bangladesh. Tel : 880 2 8124976,
                                                                9131424, Fax : 880 2 812021, E-mail : info@dnet.org.bd
                                                                Protifolon has been developed and designed in collaboration with the IDS Knowledge Services.
                                                                The views expressed in Protifolon do not necessarily reflect those of D.Net or IDS.

                                                               The publication may be reproduced or distributed for non-commercial purpose in any form or by any means,
                                                               or stored in a data base or retrieval system. However, proper quotation and reference is mandatory.

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Protifolon

  • 1. Welcome to D.Net’s Protifolon, a new policy briefing series that highlights cutting edge thinking on the emerging issues affecting Bangladesh. This first edition examines the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in the context of trade, exports migration and remittances and summarises recommendations for policy makers. 01 Overview Additionally the Bank has extended period. Trade, migration taken measures to stabilise the and remittance are the most likely Since the collapse of the exchange rate, provide extra sectors to be impacted as 43.3% United States sub prime mortgage liquidity to the financial sector and of Bangladesh’s openness is market and the subsequent raised the limit on private foreign international global crisis, many related to trade and 10 % to borrowing. It has also relaxed the developed and developing remittance. Overseas conditions for opening fresh countries have been plunged into Development Assistance (ODA) letters of credit (L/Cs). deep recession. Bangladesh and Foreign Direct Investment though has found itself in a slightly In February 2009, the Finance (FDI) may also be vulnerable in the different position. Its economy is Minister AMA Muhith admitted longer term but to a lesser extent not so dependent on international that the global financial crisis was due to only 3.2% integration with capital and foreign investment, having an impact on trade in which has helped to lower the the global economy (CPD and Bangladesh. In April the immediate impact of the crisis. ILO, 2009). Government announced their Despite this the Bangladesh stimulus package with 65 million Whilst the longer term nature government has formed a dollars directed to assist exports. of FDI commitments has kept the high-level technical committee This though falls short of the 877 net inflow of investment relatively and taskforce to monitor and million dollars needed according stable, the sluggish growth of rich advise on the crisis, and ministries to industry experts (Yahoo news, countries may eventually slow it and financial institutions have 2009). taken several precautionary down. Aid receipts (excluding During 2008, 57% of measures. Importantly in October dollars) are providing less in local Bangladesh’s economy was 2008 Bangladesh Bank withdrew currency due to unfavourable involved in the global economy 90 % of its total investment from exchange rates and future aid and this is increasing. This foreign banks which has helped to commitments from donors may be indicates that the country might further shield the economy, so that in jeopardy if the downturn it is only now that the affects of the be progressively more affected continues. crisis are being felt. should the crisis continue for an
  • 2. Impact on trade Within the RMG sector predictions suggest that whilst overall RMG The health of Bangladesh’s orders may decline it may not all economy depends significantly on be bad news. Consumer cost foreign trade. Almost 90% of cutting in the developed countries exports are targeted to United may actually increase demand for States, European Union and other lower priced products (the developed countries. Rising so-called Wal-Mart effect) – a unemployment, the subsequent section of the market well suited decline in disposable income and The to Bangladesh producers. phase of being declining consumer confidence in indifferent and complacent Demand for workers has these markets could have serious remained steady in the RMG is over. From the indications impacts on export potential. sector because of the positive that we are receiving from Although exports showed robust growth in the second half of last the exporters, from the growth (19.4%) during year. However stimulus packages migrant workers, and also July-December 2008, they in competing countries are registered negative growth from the production sectors, beginning to impact the demand (-1.4%) during October- we think that there are signs for labour in the textile sector. For December 2008, (Bangladesh of some slowdown. It would example 12 spinning mills Bank, 2009) – the worst figures in reportedly closed as be smart for us to take some recent history. All other sectors manufacturers began procuring steps in order to address the also registered negative growth yarn from India at lower prices. emerging concerns. (CPD, 2009) during this period. The World Bank forecasted that due to slower Dr. Mustafizur Rahman Policy makers and other 02 Executive Director, CPD activity in the export sector institutions are being urged to services growth will fall to the consider the following measures For complete interview visit: to limit damage to the trade sector range of 5.8% to 6.7% in http://www.bdresearch.org.bd/gfc [BIDS, 2009 and CPD, 2009]: /interview.htm FY2008. closely monitor the RMG In Bangladesh Ready Made sectors particularly order Garments (RMG) makes up about provide cash subsidy and volume, export trends, export three quarters of total exports. incentives to support affected prices and composition of Other major exports include industries and workers exported products frozen foods and leather goods. consider a low-interest credit facility to affected frozen food firms provide cash incentives for a limited period to finished leather producers in order to be competitive with China, Morocco and India withdraw duties and VAT (Value Added Tax) on inputs and machineries increase the efficiency of customs, ports, and Source : Freefoto.com infrastructure
  • 3. Impact on migration and remittance Bangladesh is the fifth highest remittance-earning country in the world and is the second largest sector in the country which is integrated with the world economy. About 1.7 million workers left Bangladesh in search of jobs during 2007 and 2008 and about five million Bangladeshis are currently working abroad, mainly in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Malaysia. Source : Centre for Policy Dialouge (CPD) In 2009, it is predicted that the number of workers going abroad the Middle East have drawing on varied research, will be significantly lower with accumulated large reserves of oil, shows the impact that remittance UAE, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia and migrant workers will still be in can have in reducing vulnerability, Singapore already struggling with demand, but a World Bank report providing financial safety nets and slow economic growth and suggests Bangladesh needs to improving areas such as access to declining demand for construction create an additional one million education and household debt. and other services [CPD and ILO, jobs for the people likely to lose The IOM report suggests that 2009]. Overall remittances during jobs at home and abroad (Asian the dependency on this income 2008 were 37.3% higher than the 03 Tribune, 2009). Any downward can create serious issues when previous year but since August trend is likely to create issues for the political or economic 2008 they showed a decreasing the receiving families. circumstances in the destination trend as did the number of countries change and that “the A 2005 International workers travelling overseas importance of remittances for the Organization for Migration (IOM) [Bangladesh Bank, 2009]. receiving family cannot be report examines the utilisation of Bangladesh Bank suggests that underestimated.” remittance in Bangladesh and, because the oil rich countries of For the migrants working abroad as well, economic crises can exacerbate already difficult conditions as their host countries become more constrained. Concerns include inadequate access to decent living and working conditions, cuts in social service provision, fear of xenophobic attacks and restricted access to worker rights (IOM, 2009). Whilst evidence for this in relation to Bangladeshi workers is difficult to find, it is important in the growing turmoil to safeguard against human right violations. So what measures can be Source : IRIN News introduced to protect migrant
  • 4. workers and their families? Whilst Qatar through diplomatic Recommended readings Bangladesh Bank have sought to intervention 1. Macroeconomic Management in improve the efficiency of examine further alternative the Face of Global Challenges, transferring remittance, the Centre for Policy Dialogue, migrant destinations including March 2009. Bangladesh Government has Iraq, Bahrain, Mauritius, http://cpd.org.bd/downloads/M devised a seven point strategy Sudan, Libya, and South Africa acro-Management.pdf which includes extending existing seek technical and financial 2. Global Financial Crisis and manpower markets and exploring Bangladesh, Bangladesh support from the ILO and new host countries in Europe. Institute of Development initiate memorandums of Studies, March 2009. However in April’s emergency understanding (MOUs) http://www.bids-bd.org/images/ stimulus package remittances pre_GFC_16Mar09_Ahsan.pdf between Bangladesh and the were absent (New Age, 2009). To 3. Navigating the Global Financial destination countries of the protect migrants abroad and to try Storm: Challenges for migrants. These MOUs could and retain remittance levels the Bangladesh, Bangladesh Bank, contain basic rights such as full November 2008. Government need to prioritise this http://www.bangladesh-bank.or wages every month and safe issue. g/research/policypaper/pp0903. working conditions pdf Recommendations include: For returning migrants 4. Impact of the Global Economic agree steps with Saudi Arabia provisions should be put in place Crisis on the Employment and and Kuwait to protect Labour Market of Bangladesh, to assist in their repatriation, Bangladeshi’s working there Centre for Policy Dialogue, reception and reintegration and January 2009 ensure good relations are Official Development Assistance http://cpd.org.bd/pub_attach/o maintained with existing p80.pdf (ODA) could be increased to migrant destinations such as 04 5. Global Financial Crisis: Impact create employment opportunities. UAE, Malaysia, Oman, and on Bangladesh, D.Net Bangladesh, October 2008 References: http://www.bdresearch.org Asian Tribune (2009) World Bank suggests Bangladesh to create 1 million additional jobs for people likely to lose jobs at home and abroad URL: http://www.asiantribune.com/?q=node/16786 6. National Policy Responses to Bangladesh Bank (2009) Bangladesh Bank Economic Trends; URL: the Financial and Economic http://www.bangladesh-bank.org/pub/monthly/econtrds/econtrds.html Crisis: The Case of Bangladesh, Centre for Policy Dialogue (2009) Macroeconomic Management in the Face of Global Challenges; ILO, January 2009 URL: http://www.cpd.org.bd/downloads/Macro-Management.pdf http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/gro Centre for Policy Dialogue and International Labour Organization (2009) Impact of the Global ups/public/---asia/---ro-bangko Economic Crisis on the Employment and Labour Market of Bangladesh; URL: k/documents/meetingdocument http://www.cpd.org.bd/pub_attach/op80.pdf /wcms_101570.pdf International Organization for Migration (2009) IOM (2009) The impact of the global financial crisis on migration; URL: 7. Bangladesh Economic Update http://www.iom.int/jahia/webdav/shared/shared/mainsite/policy_and_research/policy_docum ents/policy_brief_jan2009.pdf world Bank, 2009 New Age Business (April 2009) Stimulus fails to satisfy exporters; http://www.adb.org/Documents URL:http://www.newagebd.com/2009/apr/20/busi.html /Economic_Updates/BAN/2008/ Yahoo News (2009) Bangladesh unveils 500-mln-dlr stimulus package; URL: QEU-Dec-2008.pdf http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090419/wl_sthasia_afp/financeeconomybangladeshstimulus_ 20090419113815;_ylt=AtvG3srd4SYuAbp9zGMHy4AAS5Z4 The series is brought to you by Bangladesh Online Research Network (BORN) www.bdresearch.org an information and knowledge intermediation initiative of D.Net. Published under bdresearch programme of D.Net (Development Research Network), 6/8, Humayun Road, Block B, Mohammadpur, Dhaka 1207, Bangladesh. Tel : 880 2 8124976, 9131424, Fax : 880 2 812021, E-mail : info@dnet.org.bd Protifolon has been developed and designed in collaboration with the IDS Knowledge Services. The views expressed in Protifolon do not necessarily reflect those of D.Net or IDS. The publication may be reproduced or distributed for non-commercial purpose in any form or by any means, or stored in a data base or retrieval system. However, proper quotation and reference is mandatory.