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The Economy Decoded at CCIM Thrive 2014 - Gary Ralston, CCIM
1. The Economy Decoded
“What It Means for Commercial Real Estate”
Gary Ralston, CCIM, SIOR, CPM, CRE, CLS, CDP, CRX
Gary@SRDcommercial.com
2.
3. Demand for Commercial Real Estate
• Real estate is space for people … to live in,
work in, shop in and store things in.
• Understanding people, employment and
income (money) is the basis for analyzing real
estate demand.
• Useful and convenient sources
– Census
• http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/index.html
– Bureau of Labor Statistics
• http://www.bls.gov/eag/
4. Demand for Commercial Real Estate is Correlated to Jobs
http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet?
request_action=wh&graph_name=CE_cesbref1
5. Employment Establishment Survey (August 2014)
%
Total Nonfarm 139,118,000
Mining & Logging 918,000 0.66%
Construction 6,068,000 4.36%
Manufacturing 12,158,000 8.74%
Trade, Transportation & Utilities 26,440,000 19.01%
Information 2,667,000 1.92%
Financial 7,963,000 5.72%
Professional & Bus Services 19,302,000 13.87%
Education & Health Services 21,539,000 15.48%
Leisure & Hospitality 14,651,000 10.53%
Other 5,515,000 3.96%
Government 21,897,000 15.74%
www.bls.gov
6. Where Did the Jobs Go?
Aug-14 % date delta
Total Nonfarm 139,118,000 138,350,000 Dec-07 768,000
Mining & Logging 918,000 0.66% 726,000 Aug-07 192,000
Construction 6,068,000 4.36% 7,725,000 Jan-07 (1,657,000)
Manufacturing 12,158,000 8.74% 14,344,000 Aug-04 (2,186,000)
Trade, Trans & Utilities 26,440,000 19.01% 26,628,000 Aug-07 (188,000)
Information 2,667,000 1.92% 3,105,000 Aug-04 (438,000)
Financial 7,963,000 5.72% 8,341,000 Aug-07 (378,000)
Professional & Bus Services 19,302,000 13.87% 18,051,000 Dec-07 1,251,000
Education & Health Services 21,539,000 15.48% 18,861,000 Dec-07 2,678,000
Leisure & Hospitality 14,651,000 10.53% 13,550,000 Dec-07 1,101,000
Other 5,515,000 3.96% 5,516,000 Dec-07 (1,000)
Government 21,897,000 15.74% 21,626,000 Aug-04 271,000
8. Demographic Shifts
• CA, TX and FL account for 27% of US population
• CA, TX and FL account for almost 45% of
population growth in the County
• TX is growing by almost 40,000 per month
– CA growing about 30,000 per month
– FL growing over 20,000 per month
• FL is now the 3rd most populated state
• CA, TX and FL account for about 25% of total US
jobs and almost 40% of job growth
9. 10 Year US Treasury Rate
At market close Fri Oct 17, 2014
Mining & Logging up over 20% …. Thank you Texas
Construction … down over 25 from 2007 peak
Manufacturing down almost 18% from 10 years ago
Information down over 15% from 10 years ago
Financial down almost 5% from 2007
Education & health up over 12% since 2007
Government about same size as 10 years ago