North Georgia’s
Opportunities in the
Global Economy
Jennifer Zeller, Director of Research
GEORGIA POWER

COMMUNITY & ECONO...
Who we are,
how we do it,
tools we use
The Global
Economy
North Georgia’s Outlook
• Technology, Education, Workforce
• Cha...
What We Do More Than 85 Years of Generating Growth
What We Do Community Development







•EMSI (Economic Modeling)
•On The Map (labor & commute sheds)
•Economic Impact Models (Implan)
•Harvard Cluster Mapping Pr...
What We Do

Why Talent is Important

History of Top Location Decision Factors Survey, Corporate Decision Makers

Occupancy...
What We Do Site Selection: Process of Elimination
Talent Availability or Cost
Process of elimination (Barriers to success)...
Real GDP:
2011 (

2012: (

2014:

2013:

2015:

Taxes Up,
Spending
Down

European
Economic
Conditions/
US Debt

Hiring /
C...
U.S. Macro Confidence Still Impacting Corporations

Nov-13

203

Oct-13

200

Sep-13

175

Aug-13

238

Jul-13

89

Jun-13...
The Georgia Economy Ready for Take Off

Positive growth began in
2011(1.6%), 2.6% by 2015
Unemployment rate
continues to d...
Economic Reality Manufacturing Weakening

Source: BLS; PNC
Economic Outlook Strong Future
4

Atlanta

3

GA

U.S.

2

Percent Change

1
0
-1

2000

2002

2004

-2

-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
Mo...
Improving Economy but improvement very slowly…
Heading toward healthy expanding jobs forecast late 2014 (full employment* ...
North Georgia Outlook Regional Employment Map
North Georgia Outlook Community Development
North Georgia Outlook Jobs & Earnings
North Georgia Outlook Unemployed by Industry
North Georgia Outlook North Region Graduates
162 (111 manufacturing)
Jobs – 18,397
Capital Investment - $2.87 billion
Jobs – 13,000
Capital Investment - $3 billion
Northwest Region A View of the Regional Economy
Northwest Region 4 Counties – Where Workers Live (Labor Shed)

Economic
Interdependence
Among Counties
57.1% Workers Live ...
A Regional Voice Offers Attractive Concentration
Regional Population Base (2012):

356,746

Source: ESRI, 2013

Regional P...
Total Value of Exports Traded Among Counties - $815 M
Net Migration Among NW Counties - Gordon
Net Migration Among NW Counties - Cobb

See the difference from
a county not so
localized!
Athens MSA Labor Shed Where workers in Athens MSA live
Athens MSA Commute Shed Where Athens MSA residents work
Dalton MSA Labor Shed Where workers in Dalton MSA live
Dalton MSA Commute Shed Where Dalton MSA residents work
Chattanooga MSA Labor Shed Where workers in Chattanooga MSA live
Chattanooga MSA Commute Shed Where Chattanooga MSA residents work
Gainesville MSA Labor Shed Where workers in Gainesville MSA live
Gainesville MSA Commute Shed Where Gainesville MSA residents work
Rome MSA Labor Shed Where workers in Rome MSA live
Rome MSA Commute Shed Where Rome MSA residents work
Arts,

* Bubble size represents 2013 jobs in each
120,000

19,520

100,000

80,000

11,162

60,000
40,000

5,222

3,723

3,240
3,351

20,000

2013 Jobs
2,665

2,123

2020 J...
Community Development Cherokee County Example

Community Development Cherokee County Example
Abundant Talent
IT Concentration by Place of Work

IT Professionals
Computer & Math Concentration by Place of Residence
(Job Postings)

(Active Profiles)

Source: CareerBuilder
Supply/Demand Portal
Percentage of Persons in Poverty
Estimated U.S.: 15.9%
Estimated Georgia: 19.2%
Note: The lighter the color, the more
impo...
Whiteout indicates that no SAT score was available for that county

Source: Georgia Department of Education, 2013 data
Source: Georgia Department of Education (2013)
•
•
•
•

Low high school grad rate and SAT in region
• Leads to workforce training issues
Areas without access to broadban...
–
North Georgia Digital Economy Presentation 2013
North Georgia Digital Economy Presentation 2013
North Georgia Digital Economy Presentation 2013
North Georgia Digital Economy Presentation 2013
North Georgia Digital Economy Presentation 2013
North Georgia Digital Economy Presentation 2013
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North Georgia Digital Economy Presentation 2013

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Workforce Supply and Demand Analysis for North Georgia and the Digital Economy

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North Georgia Digital Economy Presentation 2013

  1. 1. North Georgia’s Opportunities in the Global Economy Jennifer Zeller, Director of Research GEORGIA POWER COMMUNITY & ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
  2. 2. Who we are, how we do it, tools we use The Global Economy North Georgia’s Outlook • Technology, Education, Workforce • Challenges and Opportunities
  3. 3. What We Do More Than 85 Years of Generating Growth
  4. 4. What We Do Community Development      
  5. 5. •EMSI (Economic Modeling) •On The Map (labor & commute sheds) •Economic Impact Models (Implan) •Harvard Cluster Mapping Project •Career Builder •Business Wise, Hoovers, Reference USA •DnB •Directory of Corporate Affiliations •CoStar Real Estate data •GPC Economic Development Industry Database •ESRI Data/Mapping •Census/ACS/FactFinder/Trade Data •Immigration/in-migration (IRS, Moody’s) •Moody’s Data Buffet •Woods & Poole Economics •Moody’s Economy.com •Tax Foundation •Occupational Costs (BLS/GDOL/EMSI) •RS Means Square Foot Costs •CCH| Incentives Calculator •ACCRA COLI
  6. 6. What We Do Why Talent is Important History of Top Location Decision Factors Survey, Corporate Decision Makers Occupancy/Construction Costs Energy Availability & Costs Corporate Tax Rate Available Buildings Tax Exemptions Low Union Profile * Not in top ten factors for year shown Source: Area Development Magazine, Corporate Surveys, 2005 to 2012 2 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 N/A Highway Accessibility N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5 7 4 l 8 10 4 9 6 l 3 l 7 4 5 l 3 l 3 5 8 l 4 9 5 3 7 l 10 10T 7 9 3 l 6 l 7 10 6 l 8 l
  7. 7. What We Do Site Selection: Process of Elimination Talent Availability or Cost Process of elimination (Barriers to success) Regulatory Environmental (air, water, permitting) Financial Natural disaster threats Business environment Taxes Permitting Cost of living/cost of doing business Workforce availability Accessibility (air, highway, rail, port) Real Estate Options Sites/buildings Infrastructure – Telecom/Highway Source: CBRE, Jonathan Sangster
  8. 8. Real GDP: 2011 ( 2012: ( 2014: 2013: 2015: Taxes Up, Spending Down European Economic Conditions/ US Debt Hiring / Confidence Slowing Emerging Markets Regulatory Environment
  9. 9. U.S. Macro Confidence Still Impacting Corporations Nov-13 203 Oct-13 200 Sep-13 175 Aug-13 238 Jul-13 89 Jun-13 172 May-13 176 Apr-13 199 0 Source: Moody’s Economy.com, Nov 2013 50 100 150 200 250
  10. 10. The Georgia Economy Ready for Take Off Positive growth began in 2011(1.6%), 2.6% by 2015 Unemployment rate continues to drop over the next 5 years – down to 5.1% by 2017 – ATL (GA-6.0%) • Professional & Bus Serv. • Information • Leisure & Hospitality • Construction • Trade • Education and Health Services • Finance • Government -1.4% • Manufacturing -1.6% • Growth in information tech / business services industries • Construction rebounding • Continued growth of trans equip manufacturing • Port Harbor deepening (2017)
  11. 11. Economic Reality Manufacturing Weakening Source: BLS; PNC
  12. 12. Economic Outlook Strong Future 4 Atlanta 3 GA U.S. 2 Percent Change 1 0 -1 2000 2002 2004 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 Moody’s Economy.com, July 2013 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
  13. 13. Improving Economy but improvement very slowly… Heading toward healthy expanding jobs forecast late 2014 (full employment* by 2016) 40,200 Unemployment Rate 91,200 N/A 40,200 51,400 70,300 71,000 108,000 121,000 51,400 71,800 74,200 N/A N/A 9.9% 9.0% 8.2% 7.5% 6.8% 6.3% 43,700 60,200 58,700 65,000 N/A 35,900 43,700 51,800 55,300 74,500 80,900 35,500 Atlanta 77,800 35,900 Unemployment Rate 81,500 40,200 Georgia 50,900 43,900 56,400 57,700 N/A N/A 9.8% 8.8% 7.8% 6.7% 6.0% 5.5% Source: Forecasts as of December 10, 2013 (Nov 2013– GSU); Moody’s Analytics- July 2013; UGA- Dec 2013) * Full employment indicates an unemployment rate under 6 %. GSU Moody’s UGA GSU Moody’s UGA
  14. 14. North Georgia Outlook Regional Employment Map
  15. 15. North Georgia Outlook Community Development
  16. 16. North Georgia Outlook Jobs & Earnings
  17. 17. North Georgia Outlook Unemployed by Industry
  18. 18. North Georgia Outlook North Region Graduates
  19. 19. 162 (111 manufacturing) Jobs – 18,397 Capital Investment - $2.87 billion Jobs – 13,000 Capital Investment - $3 billion
  20. 20. Northwest Region A View of the Regional Economy
  21. 21. Northwest Region 4 Counties – Where Workers Live (Labor Shed) Economic Interdependence Among Counties 57.1% Workers Live in Region Source: Bureau of the Census, On the Map 2010
  22. 22. A Regional Voice Offers Attractive Concentration Regional Population Base (2012): 356,746 Source: ESRI, 2013 Regional Pipeline of Talent (Universities, Technical Schools) Regional Employment: 141,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Economic Modeling 2013 Source: National Center for Educational Statistics, 2011 Graduate data of universities and technical colleges.
  23. 23. Total Value of Exports Traded Among Counties - $815 M
  24. 24. Net Migration Among NW Counties - Gordon
  25. 25. Net Migration Among NW Counties - Cobb See the difference from a county not so localized!
  26. 26. Athens MSA Labor Shed Where workers in Athens MSA live
  27. 27. Athens MSA Commute Shed Where Athens MSA residents work
  28. 28. Dalton MSA Labor Shed Where workers in Dalton MSA live
  29. 29. Dalton MSA Commute Shed Where Dalton MSA residents work
  30. 30. Chattanooga MSA Labor Shed Where workers in Chattanooga MSA live
  31. 31. Chattanooga MSA Commute Shed Where Chattanooga MSA residents work
  32. 32. Gainesville MSA Labor Shed Where workers in Gainesville MSA live
  33. 33. Gainesville MSA Commute Shed Where Gainesville MSA residents work
  34. 34. Rome MSA Labor Shed Where workers in Rome MSA live
  35. 35. Rome MSA Commute Shed Where Rome MSA residents work
  36. 36. Arts, * Bubble size represents 2013 jobs in each
  37. 37. 120,000 19,520 100,000 80,000 11,162 60,000 40,000 5,222 3,723 3,240 3,351 20,000 2013 Jobs 2,665 2,123 2020 Jobs 1,343 303 Change 215 0 191 35 16
  38. 38. Community Development Cherokee County Example 
  39. 39. Community Development Cherokee County Example
  40. 40. Abundant Talent IT Concentration by Place of Work IT Professionals Computer & Math Concentration by Place of Residence
  41. 41. (Job Postings) (Active Profiles) Source: CareerBuilder Supply/Demand Portal
  42. 42. Percentage of Persons in Poverty Estimated U.S.: 15.9% Estimated Georgia: 19.2% Note: The lighter the color, the more impoverished the area. Source: 2010 Poverty Rates, Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE), U. S. Bureau of the Census
  43. 43. Whiteout indicates that no SAT score was available for that county Source: Georgia Department of Education, 2013 data
  44. 44. Source: Georgia Department of Education (2013)
  45. 45. • • • • Low high school grad rate and SAT in region • Leads to workforce training issues Areas without access to broadband internet (DSL over phone line not acceptable) • Need fiber area to make an area competitive Developmental costs are disproportionate, infrastructure costs relatively high due to terrain, lack of natural gas Topological challenges Lack of regionalism in many areas Weaker labor shed concentration Lack of available buildings • • • Very strong work ethic. NW region always been manufacturing region. Generational values Some available workforce (high UE rate) just not enough Recent project wins (Caterpillar, Kubota, Engineered Floors) – prepared sites and ED Leadership • • •
  46. 46.

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