The document argues for gold as a safe and strategic investment, emphasizing its status as a tangible asset that provides protection against inflation, purchasing power loss, and various macroeconomic risks. Gold is presented as a low-correlation diversification asset with universal value that has historically proven its worth during financial crises. The author recommends an optimal allocation of 5-10% of one's total net worth in gold, particularly in physical forms, to enhance portfolio stability and guard against economic uncertainties.

1. The Case for Gold
20 November 2012
«Gold as an alternative investment»
By Laurent Mathiot
CEO of AurAriA

2. I-Introduction
Laurent Mathiot
Member of The French Institute of Actuaries
MBA Wharton 1993
Former Investment Banker and Wealth Manager
20 Years Experience in Asset Management
Tangible Assets Specialist (Real Estate, Precious Metals…)
Founder & CEO of AurAriA
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3. Why Invest in Gold ?
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4. II-I A Safe Haven !
Gold Does Not Go Bankrupt !
● Tangible «Hard» Asset
● Nobody’s Liability
● No Credit Risk
Total Control of Investment
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5. II-I A Safe Haven
Gold protects your purchasing power !
In case of inflation
Gold has been stable for centuries when
expressed in real goods
Famous Study “The Golden Constant” updated
in 2009 by The World Gold Council:
http://www.goldthe_constant/
Gold is a value asset in times of
Quantitative Easing !
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6. II-I A Safe Haven
Exemple of Hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic…
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7. II-I A Safe Haven
Gold is a Store of Value !
In a macro-economic context of :
● Low growth
● High unemployment
● Market risks (stocks, bonds, real estate)
● Increasing bankruptcies
+ «Risk Off» investment philosophy
Investors are seeking no credit risk assets («flight to quality»)
Gold protects against adverse macro risks
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8. II-I A Safe Haven
Gold does better in crisis situations !
Example : 2008 Crisis with Lehman Brothers bankruptcy
● What happened to financial markets ?
▶ Liquidity issues
▶ Major haircuts
● What happened to Gold?
▶ Value up 40%
▶ Full liquidity
▶ NO haircut
Gold: a top level Athlete !
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9. II-II A Universal Asset
The Gold Market is one of the most liquid !
● 100 billions USD of bullion valued on the London Market (N°1 for Gold)
● More Volume than Government Bonds Market such as German Pfandbrief
● Fast growing Markets like Hong Kong & China
Gold: a tangible and liquid asset !
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10. II-II A Universal Asset
Gold is a Deep Market !
« Market Depht » is the total value of assets owned by market operators
● Estimate for Gold: 10 Trillion USD
● More Depth than Government Bonds Markets
Transactions of any size may be executed without market disruption
Example : 400 tons of Gold sold by IMF in 2010 was «absorbed» seamlessly
Counter-example : Silver prices could be temporarily controlled by the Hunt Brothers in
1980 because of the lack of depth of the silver market !
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11. II-II A Universal Asset
Gold has a universal value !
One of the most followed quotation in the world !
Established in London twice a day by a «fixing» by
the London Bullion Market Association via an
unchanged ritual since 1919 !
Gold price per oz is published in USD, GBP and
EUR on http://www.lbma.org.uk/pages/index.cfm
Valuation of Gold is easy and transparent at any
time and in any place
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12. II-III A Strategic Investment
Gold is a Diversification Asset
Portfolios holding traditional financial assets such as stocks and bonds can be diversified by adding gold.
Risk factors that may affect the gold price are different in nature from those that affect other assets, thus
gold has a low correlation to traditional financial assets, this is why it provides diversification benefits.
Portfolios containing gold are generally more robust and less volatile than those
that do not, meaning a better “Risk Adjusted Return”
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13. II-III A Strategic Investment
Gold protects against «Tail Risk»
▶ An optimal portfolio should feature:
● Performance
● Risk Management via diversification
● Survival skills in case of an extreme adverse event: a «Black Swan»
▶ Gold helps to manage risk more effectively by protecting against infrequent or
unlikely but consequential very negative events, referred to as “Tail Risks”, thus
providing a wealth’s insurance to its owner !
Source World Gold Council,«Hedging against Tail Risk»:
http://www.gold.org/investment/research/thematic_research/wealth_protection
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14. II-IV Gold is NOT overvalued !
In Historical Value
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15. II-IV Gold is NOT overvalued !
In Terms of Asset Allocation:
● Average current investors allocation rate to Gold, on a global basis: 1% !
● Average current Central Banks allocation rate to Gold: 15%
● Average allocation rate to Gold in 1980, at the highest historical price: 25%
(Source: Valcambi)
Gold is far from a «speculative bubble» !
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16. II-IV Gold is NOT overvalued !
New Demand: Emerging Markets Rush to Gold !
The Case of China
National priority to accumulate Gold:
● China became n°1 producer of Gold
● All production is taken by the State
● Massive buying via Hong Kong on Gold
international markets
● China taking stakes in global Gold mining
● 2009 : Gold Market opens to individuals
Gold allocation rate of Chinese consumers
has tripled in 5 years !
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17. II-IV Gold is NOT overvalued !
In Monetary Terms
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18. II-V Asset of Last Resort
A Monetary Asset
Gold has always played an important role in the international monetary system:
For hundreds of years gold was money, Gold coins circulated for many centuries !
Later there was an explicit link between gold and paper money, with paper being
exchangeable for gold on demand.
The gold exchange standard was a period of stability whereby countries tied their
currencies to the US dollar, which was in turn tied to gold.
Since the end of the gold exchange standard on August 15, 1971, it remains a
cornerstone reserve asset accounting for 15% of total official reserves.
Furthermore, gold has been playing an increasing role among private investors,
supported by growing demand from emerging markets, in particular China and India.
Gold’s lack of credit or counterparty risk, coupled with the deterioration of sovereign
credit, has encouraged investors and global exchanges to increasingly use gold as a
source of high quality collateral.
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19. II-V Asset of Last Resort
Gold as Collateral
Gold is increasingly being used in the financial
system as a source of high-quality collateral.
Its lack of credit risk and countercyclical behaviour
make it ideal for this purpose.
The European Market Infrastructure Regulation
now permits Central Counterparty Clearing Houses
throughout Europe to accept gold as collateral.
Gold’s use as collateral at banks is also growing.
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20. II-V Asset of Last Resort
Reasons for this new status of Gold:
Financial markets are lacking «Risk Free» Assets
to bring as collateral of an ever increasing volume of debts
Sovereign bonds are no longer considered «Risk Free» and losing AAA
Gold has the features of a «High Quality Liquid Asset»:
● No default risk
● Store of value
● High liquidity
● Universal valuation
Gold is coming back as a Reserve and Collateral Asset
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21. How to invest in Gold?
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22. III-I Paper or Physical ?
«Paper Gold»: ownership without holding it
means counterparty risk !
● ETF’s
● Funds
● Trading platforms
Bullion: ownership + holding
● Coins
● Bars
Don’t let anyone between you and your Gold:
Get physical !
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23. III-II Storage
Secured Storage Option
makes sense for large amounts BUT:
● With a leading precious assets operator
● With a permanent access under your name
● With well insured premises
● Out of the traditional banking system
Example: Malca Amit has worldwide safe vault locations
Fully secured bullion
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24. III-III Asset Allocation
What is the optimal Gold allocation ?
World Gold Council numerous studies demonstrate
a stable range of: 5% to 10% of Total Net Worth
http://www.gold.org/investment/research/
● 10% in case of acute financial crisis
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25. III-III Asset Allocation
Gold is a Foundation Asset
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26. III-III Asset Allocation
Enhancing Portfolios !
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27. III-IV Management
A long term investment approach is better than trading !
● Long term bullish trend BUT
● Short term volatility generates risk for market entry & exit
Active management would be a «Gold Accumulation Plan»
● Savings turned into Gold on a regular basis
● Gold can be allocated to a retirement plan such as IRA
Benefits :
● Stay away from speculative pressures
● Reduce market timing risk
● Benefit from a secular trend
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28. III-V Practical Recommendation
Current Optimal Allocation= 10%
5% in Coins: 5% in 999’9 fine Gold Bars
(from 1/10 to 1 oz) (from 100 grams to 1 Kilo)
as direct holding to as secured storage
provide emergency If possible in various
liquidity if needed international locations
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29. IV Conclusions
▶ Gold is definitely relevant in today’s financial crisis context !
▶ Gold brings stability to any investor, from modest savers to institutionals !
▶ Gold has a low opportunity cost since interest rates are close to zero !
▶ Gold is a wealth’s insurance that you can’t afford not to have !
▶ Gold could turn out to be a bonanza if its monetary role extends !
Invest in Gold !
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30. Contact
AurAriA
Investment Gold
Laurent Mathiot
Founder & CEO
mathiot@auraria.biz
Laurence Primard
COO
primard@auraria.biz
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