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Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03   The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM   1
The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we
               found in RUM

                    Buddy Brewer, Philip Tellis



                 Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03




     Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03   The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM   2
Jean-Antoine Nollet




           Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03   The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM   3
Mr. Souders




          Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03   The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM   4
https://github.com/lognormal/boomerang/




Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03   The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM   5
Never underestimate the bandwidth of a mail horse




           Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03   The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM   6
World-wide bandwidth




          Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03   The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM   7
What do users expect?




          Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03   The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM   8
Gold or Bronze?




          Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03   The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM   9
What delighted users a few years ago is now an expected
    baseline, the absence of which will frustrate.




     Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03   The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM   10
Should you delight?




           Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03   The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM   11
Or frustrate?




           Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03   The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM   12
Delighting changes the baseline




Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03   The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM   13
Delighting changes the baseline
(Frustrating does too, but we don’t want to go there)




    Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03   The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM   13
So where’s the web today?




Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03   The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM   14
Log-Normal Distribution




          Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03   The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM   15
Log-Normal Distribution




     The logarithm of the x-axis follows a Normal distribution




           Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03   The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM   15
Log-Normal Distribution




   Performance data does not always follow a "pure" Log-Normal
                          distribution




           Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03   The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM   16
Look at the entire spread

                                ...




Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03   The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM   17
Look at the entire spread

   which often approaches an infinite width




Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03   The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM   17
• 0.8% of hits are fake/abusive
• 0.2-0.5% of hits are from a stale cache
• 0.1% of hits are absurd
• Timestamps in the future (or past depending on how you
  interpret it)
• Bots ignore robots.txt across domains
• "Interesting" caches/copies




        Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03   The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM   18
Even with beacons, you need to sanitize your input




  Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03   The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM   19
Once you get past the cruft, you can really measure users




      Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03   The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM   20
How does performance
                impact human behavior?


Wednesday, October 3, 12
8 million pages

                       1.5 million visits

                       50 different dimensions

Wednesday, October 3, 12
very fast sessions had high bounce rates
   70.00%




   52.50%




   35.00%




   17.50%




       0%
            0        2      4   6   8   10   12   14   16   18   20   22   24   26   28   30


Wednesday, October 3, 12
bounce rate vs. load time
70.00%




52.50%




35.00%




17.50%




    0%
         1         3       5   7    9   11   13   15   17   19   21   23   25   27   29

Wednesday, October 3, 12
bounce rate vs. DOM interactive
 70.00%




 52.50%




 35.00%




 17.50%




    0%
          1    1.5    2    2.5   3    3.5   4   4.5   5   5.5   6   6.5   7   7.5   8   8.5   9   9.5   10   10.5   11   11.5   12   12.5


Wednesday, October 3, 12
bounce rate vs. front end time
 80.00%




 60.00%




 40.00%




 20.00%




    0%
          0.5    2         3.5   5   6.5   8   9.5   11   12.5   14   15.5   17   18.5   20   21.5   23   24.5   26   27.5   29

Wednesday, October 3, 12
is my web site performance toxic to my
                    users?

http://www.flickr.com/photos/21560098@N06/3796822070
Wednesday, October 3, 12
LD50 - when do half the users bounce?




http://www.flickr.com/photos/thecosmopolitan/6117530924
Wednesday, October 3, 12
Bounce rate >=50%
                            Back end time    1.7 sec

                            DOM Loading      1.8 sec

                           DOM Interactive   2.75 sec

                           Front end time    3.5 sec

                           DOM Complete      4.75 sec

                             Load event      5.5 sec

Wednesday, October 3, 12
Browsers by Load Time

     70.00%




     52.50%




     35.00%                                                                                                 LD50

                                                                                                            IE: 3.6 sec
     17.50%
                                                                                                            Firefox: 5.6 sec
                                                                                                            Chrome: 6.5 sec
         0%
              1   1.4 1.8 2.2 2.6   3   3.4 3.8 4.2 4.6   5   5.4 5.8 6.2 6.6   7   7.4 7.8 8.2 8.6   9    9.4 9.8 10.2 10.6 11 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.6 13 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.6 15


                                                                                       IE                 Chrome               Firefox


Wednesday, October 3, 12
Browsers by DOM Interactive
            90.00%




            67.50%




            45.00%
                                                                                                                                         LD50

            22.50%
                                                                                                                                         IE: 1.8 sec
                                                                                                                                         Firefox: 3.1 sec
                                                                                                                                         Chrome: 4.4 sec
               0%
                     0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.7 9.9


                                                                        IE                    Chrome                        Firefox




Wednesday, October 3, 12
Countries by Load Time
    90.00%




    67.50%
                                                                                                                                                   LD50

                                                                                                                                                   DE: ? sec
    45.00%                                                                                                                                         US: 5.0 sec
                                                                                                                                                   GB: 11.5 sec
                                                                                                                                                   CA: 13.5 sec
                                                                                                                                                   AU: ? sec
    22.50%




        0%
             1   1.5   2   2.5   3   3.5   4   4.5   5   5.5   6   6.5   7   7.5   8   8.5   9    9.5 10 10.5 11 11.5 12 12.5 13 13.5 14 14.5 15



                                                                             US              CA          DE         AU          GB




Wednesday, October 3, 12
Available Bandwidth

                           GB          AU             World




Wednesday, October 3, 12
Future directions
                           What is the LD50 for your site?

                           Other bounce rates? 40%? 30%?

                           Other variables? (critical content
                           visible, etc)

                           Other behaviors? Conversions,
                           revenue, pages per session, actions,
                           when do people make tea?
Wednesday, October 3, 12
Questions?



                           Buddy Brewer @bbrewer
                           Philip Tellis @bluesmoon

Wednesday, October 3, 12
Credits




     • Usain Bolt – Sum_of_Mark on flickr
     • Douglas Mail Carrier – Svadilfari on flickr
     • Angel Delight – Auntie P on flickr
     • Frustrated – Kevin Lawver on flickr
     • Jean-Antoine Nollet – (Public Domain) Wikipedia
     • 100 metre dash – on NY Times




              Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03   The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM   21

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The 3.5s Dash for Attention and Other Stuff We Found in RUM

  • 1. Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03 The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM 1
  • 2. The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM Buddy Brewer, Philip Tellis Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03 Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03 The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM 2
  • 3. Jean-Antoine Nollet Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03 The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM 3
  • 4. Mr. Souders Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03 The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM 4
  • 5. https://github.com/lognormal/boomerang/ Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03 The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM 5
  • 6. Never underestimate the bandwidth of a mail horse Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03 The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM 6
  • 7. World-wide bandwidth Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03 The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM 7
  • 8. What do users expect? Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03 The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM 8
  • 9. Gold or Bronze? Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03 The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM 9
  • 10. What delighted users a few years ago is now an expected baseline, the absence of which will frustrate. Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03 The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM 10
  • 11. Should you delight? Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03 The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM 11
  • 12. Or frustrate? Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03 The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM 12
  • 13. Delighting changes the baseline Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03 The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM 13
  • 14. Delighting changes the baseline (Frustrating does too, but we don’t want to go there) Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03 The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM 13
  • 15. So where’s the web today? Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03 The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM 14
  • 16. Log-Normal Distribution Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03 The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM 15
  • 17. Log-Normal Distribution The logarithm of the x-axis follows a Normal distribution Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03 The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM 15
  • 18. Log-Normal Distribution Performance data does not always follow a "pure" Log-Normal distribution Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03 The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM 16
  • 19. Look at the entire spread ... Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03 The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM 17
  • 20. Look at the entire spread which often approaches an infinite width Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03 The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM 17
  • 21. • 0.8% of hits are fake/abusive • 0.2-0.5% of hits are from a stale cache • 0.1% of hits are absurd • Timestamps in the future (or past depending on how you interpret it) • Bots ignore robots.txt across domains • "Interesting" caches/copies Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03 The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM 18
  • 22. Even with beacons, you need to sanitize your input Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03 The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM 19
  • 23. Once you get past the cruft, you can really measure users Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03 The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM 20
  • 24. How does performance impact human behavior? Wednesday, October 3, 12
  • 25. 8 million pages 1.5 million visits 50 different dimensions Wednesday, October 3, 12
  • 26. very fast sessions had high bounce rates 70.00% 52.50% 35.00% 17.50% 0% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Wednesday, October 3, 12
  • 27. bounce rate vs. load time 70.00% 52.50% 35.00% 17.50% 0% 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 Wednesday, October 3, 12
  • 28. bounce rate vs. DOM interactive 70.00% 52.50% 35.00% 17.50% 0% 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11 11.5 12 12.5 Wednesday, October 3, 12
  • 29. bounce rate vs. front end time 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0% 0.5 2 3.5 5 6.5 8 9.5 11 12.5 14 15.5 17 18.5 20 21.5 23 24.5 26 27.5 29 Wednesday, October 3, 12
  • 30. is my web site performance toxic to my users? http://www.flickr.com/photos/21560098@N06/3796822070 Wednesday, October 3, 12
  • 31. LD50 - when do half the users bounce? http://www.flickr.com/photos/thecosmopolitan/6117530924 Wednesday, October 3, 12
  • 32. Bounce rate >=50% Back end time 1.7 sec DOM Loading 1.8 sec DOM Interactive 2.75 sec Front end time 3.5 sec DOM Complete 4.75 sec Load event 5.5 sec Wednesday, October 3, 12
  • 33. Browsers by Load Time 70.00% 52.50% 35.00% LD50 IE: 3.6 sec 17.50% Firefox: 5.6 sec Chrome: 6.5 sec 0% 1 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.6 3 3.4 3.8 4.2 4.6 5 5.4 5.8 6.2 6.6 7 7.4 7.8 8.2 8.6 9 9.4 9.8 10.2 10.6 11 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.6 13 13.4 13.8 14.2 14.6 15 IE Chrome Firefox Wednesday, October 3, 12
  • 34. Browsers by DOM Interactive 90.00% 67.50% 45.00% LD50 22.50% IE: 1.8 sec Firefox: 3.1 sec Chrome: 4.4 sec 0% 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.9 5.1 5.3 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.1 7.3 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.1 9.3 9.5 9.7 9.9 IE Chrome Firefox Wednesday, October 3, 12
  • 35. Countries by Load Time 90.00% 67.50% LD50 DE: ? sec 45.00% US: 5.0 sec GB: 11.5 sec CA: 13.5 sec AU: ? sec 22.50% 0% 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 10.5 11 11.5 12 12.5 13 13.5 14 14.5 15 US CA DE AU GB Wednesday, October 3, 12
  • 36. Available Bandwidth GB AU World Wednesday, October 3, 12
  • 37. Future directions What is the LD50 for your site? Other bounce rates? 40%? 30%? Other variables? (critical content visible, etc) Other behaviors? Conversions, revenue, pages per session, actions, when do people make tea? Wednesday, October 3, 12
  • 38. Questions? Buddy Brewer @bbrewer Philip Tellis @bluesmoon Wednesday, October 3, 12
  • 39. Credits • Usain Bolt – Sum_of_Mark on flickr • Douglas Mail Carrier – Svadilfari on flickr • Angel Delight – Auntie P on flickr • Frustrated – Kevin Lawver on flickr • Jean-Antoine Nollet – (Public Domain) Wikipedia • 100 metre dash – on NY Times Velocity EU 2012 / 2012-10-03 The 3.5s dash for attention and other stuff we found in RUM 21