Like most industries, the transportation and mobility sector is undergoing a huge transformation driven by electrification, a move towards mobility as a service, and increasingly autonomous vehicles. Here we look at the key trends in more detail.

1. THE 3 BIGGEST FUTURE TRENDS IN
TRANSPORTATION AND MOBILITY

2. © 2021 Bernard Marr, Bernard Marr & Co. All rights reserved
THE 3 BIGGEST FUTURE TRENDS IN
TRANSPORTATION AND MOBILITY
Like most industries, the transportation and mobility sector is undergoing a
huge transformation driven by electrification, a move towards mobility as a
service, and increasingly autonomous vehicles. Here we look at the key
trends in more detail.

3. © 2021 Bernard Marr, Bernard Marr & Co. All rights reserved
As a futurist, I see many industries undergoing enormous change. The transportation sector
is a perfect example of an industry grappling with rapid changes in technology and customer
expectations. In particular, these changes are being driven by three major trends:
electrification, automation, and servitization.
But it’s important to note that these three trends won’t just transform the movement of
people. How we move goods will also change. Therefore, the rapid advancements taking
place in transportation will affect most businesses, regardless of sector – essentially, any
business with a supply chain that relies on the movement of goods should be aware of these
three trends.
Let’s dig into the three trends in a little more detail.

4. © 2021 Bernard Marr, Bernard Marr & Co. All rights reserved
TREND 1: ELECTRIFICATION
We know that transportation is a major cause of greenhouse gas emissions. In the US,
transportation generates around 28 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions, with these
emissions largely coming from the burning of fossil fuels (particularly gasoline and diesel) to
run cars, trucks, ships, planes, and trains. We urgently need to transition to greener vehicles –
which is where electrification comes in.
When it comes to cars, electric vehicles (EVs) appear to be reaching a tipping point. As of
2020, EVs accounted for just 6 percent of global automotive sales, but that is projected to
grow to 13 percent by 2025 and 22 percent by 2030. Over time, stricter national emissions
targets, greater urban populations, improvements in charging infrastructure, and the declining
cost of the lithium-ion batteries that power EVs (already down 80 percent since 2010) will
combine to encourage mass adoption of EVs.

5. © 2021 Bernard Marr, Bernard Marr & Co. All rights reserved
And it’s not just cars that are going electric:
 - Indian ride-sharing company Ola has invested massively in e-scooters. The company’s e-
scooter plant in India is gearing up to produce 10 million electric scooters a year, making it
the world’s largest e-scooter facility.
 - Companies like Daimler are investing in electric truck technology. For example, Daimler’s
250-mile range eCascadia and 230-mile range eM2 trucks are due to go into production in
2022.
 - Norway has been running electric car ferries since 2015, and the country now aims to run
an all-electric fleet by 2023.

6. © 2021 Bernard Marr, Bernard Marr & Co. All rights reserved
TREND 2: AUTONOMOUS, CONNECTED VEHICLES
Autonomous vehicles provide an incredible opportunity to revolutionize the way
people and goods are transported, improve road safety and ease congestion on
our busy roads. They may even change the way our cities are built – if you think
about it, huge parking lots will be a thing of the past, as driverless vehicles will be
able to drop us at our destination and come back for us later.

7. © 2021 Bernard Marr, Bernard Marr & Co. All rights reserved
That’s a cool vision of the future, but where are we currently at with autonomous cars? Here’s a very
brief snapshot:
 - Elon Musk said Tesla’s autonomous vehicle technology would be capable of Level 5 autonomy –
where the vehicle can carry out all driver tasks in any situation – by the end of 2021. Although Tesla
representatives later said Musk was exaggerating a little and they could not guarantee that
milestone would be met by the end of 2021.
 - Many other automakers are working towards achieving Level 4 autonomy – where the vehicle can
drive itself under certain conditions only – over the next few years.
 - Yet driverless taxis are already a reality in some parts of the world. Waymo, Alphabet’s
autonomous taxi service, launched fully driverless rides for the general public in 2020. And in China,
AutoX launched its fully driverless taxis in early 2021.

8. © 2021 Bernard Marr, Bernard Marr & Co. All rights reserved
Meanwhile, in freight, several companies are working to develop autonomous
trucks, including TuSimple, which is working with UPS to conduct test operations
in Arizona and Texas. Currently, TuSimple trucks still have a driver on board
ready to take the wheel, but the company was planning to conduct its first
driverless trials in 2021 and start selling autonomous trucks in 2024.

9. © 2021 Bernard Marr, Bernard Marr & Co. All rights reserved
TREND 3: SERVITIZATION
Servitization is a massive trend that will affect almost all industries, and mobility is no exception. As
more and more of us live in densely populated megacities, and as concern grows over the climate
crisis, the days of everyone owning and running their own cars are numbered. Plus, with the rise of
ride-sharing services like Uber and Didi Chuxing, transportation is now much more complex and multi-
layered than the traditional private ownership model.
Increasingly, then, we'll turn to mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) providers to meet our transportation
needs - think of MaaS as mobility on demand. A company like Uber could technically fall under this
bracket, but the MaaS operators of the future will offer customers multiple mobility options via a single
payment channel and interface. For example, with a MaaS provider, you could borrow a car for a few
hours one day, pick up an e-scooter in town later that day, and hop home on public transport – all via
one platform. The key notion here is access to mobility rather than ownership. In the future, the
majority of city dwellers may never need to own a car at all.

10. © 2021 Bernard Marr, Bernard Marr & Co. All rights reserved
Read more about these and other future trends in my new book, Business Trends
in Practice: The 25+ Trends That are Redefining Organizations. Packed with real-
world examples, it cuts through the hype to present the key trends that will shape
the businesses of the future.

11. © 2021 Bernard Marr , Bernard Marr & Co. All rights reserved
Bernard Marr is an internationally best-selling author, popular keynote speaker,
futurist, and a strategic business & technology advisor to governments and
companies. He helps organisations improve their business performance, use data
more intelligently, and understand the implications of new technologies such as
artificial intelligence, big data, blockchains, and the Internet of Things.
LinkedIn has ranked Bernard as one of the world’s top 5 business influencers. He is
a frequent contributor to the World Economic Forum and writes a regular column for
Forbes. Every day Bernard actively engages his 1.5 million social media followers
and shares content that reaches millions of readers.

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