The newly approved Tax Code in Ukraine is set to gradually lower the corporate tax rate from 25% to 16% by 2014 and cut the VAT rate to 17% in 2014. It also grants tax exemptions to various industries. While benefiting large businesses, it may negatively impact small private entrepreneurs. The Tax Code approval facilitates drafting of the 2011 budget in line with IMF requirements and bodes well for endorsement of other IMF-backed reforms. The overall impact on the economy is expected to be neutral to positive, with gains for large companies offsetting effects on small businesses. Budget revenue impacts are seen as insignificant.
- US and Asian stock futures fell and European stocks dropped as concerns over global growth and the outcome of Greece's debt swap weighed on investor sentiment.
- A report showed the eurozone economy contracted 0.3% in Q4 due to declines in investment, exports and consumer spending. A disorderly Greek default could cost the eurozone over 1 trillion euros.
- Private investors holding 20% of the Greek bonds involved in the debt swap have agreed to participate so far. The swap aims to reduce Greece's privately held debt by 53.5%.
- Asian stocks fell sharply led by miners as markets declined globally on growth worries.
This document discusses the impact of Brexit on markets and risks. It shows that while investors were prepared for weakness in the British pound, the key question is whether they will maintain their UK asset holdings. European systemic risk spiked following Brexit, showing markets have become more fragile. Data so far shows investors are not becoming broadly more risk averse in response to Brexit, pointing to "no panic" for now. The document warns that uncertainty from Brexit could lead to a UK recession and discusses potential contagion risks to other European countries.
- US and Asian stock futures fell and European stocks dropped as concerns over global growth and the outcome of Greece's debt swap weighed on sentiment.
- A report showed the eurozone economy contracted 0.3% in Q4 due to declines in investment, exports and consumer spending.
- Private investors holding about 20% of the bonds involved in Greece's debt restructuring have agreed to participate in the swap, which aims to reduce Greece's debt by 53.5%.
- Canadian stocks opened higher led by gains in financial and materials stocks, while US stocks were mixed as investors digested corporate earnings results ahead of US economic data later in the week.
The document provides economic and financial data for Romania from sources including the IMF, World Bank, and Global Finance rankings. It summarizes Romania's GDP, economic growth, expenditures, debt, trade, competitiveness, and rankings for ease of doing business and internet banking. Key data points include a 2010 GDP of $158.4 billion, economic growth estimates for 2010-2011, exports led by machinery and equipment, and rankings of 56th for ease of doing business and 67th for global competitiveness.
1) Under current policies, the U.S. debt held by the public is projected to exceed GDP by over 1,000% by 2080, compared to around 60% of GDP currently.
2) Total U.S. debt including intragovernmental holdings is around $12.9 trillion or 89% of GDP currently, with 58% held by the public and 31% in intragovernmental debt.
3) Eliminating the Bush tax cuts and ending overseas military deployments would have a small impact on long-term fiscal projections, reducing the fiscal gap by around 1.8% of GDP by 2080.
- US stock futures and most Asian markets fell overnight on growth concerns, while European stocks traded slightly higher as investors focused on earnings.
- In Canada, the S&P/TSX composite index rose 0.36% led by gains in gold miners, while the US unemployment rate and jobs data are due out this week.
- Key company earnings news included Manulife beating targets, Suncor reporting higher profits on higher oil prices, and Telus missing estimates due to higher costs.
The document is a collection of charts analyzing the financial condition and fiscal outlook of the U.S. government. Section I focuses on debt and deficits, showing that if current policies remain unchanged, debt held by the public is projected to exceed GDP by over 1,000% by 2080. The total debt includes intragovernmental debt owed to programs like Social Security as well as debt held by the public, both domestic and foreign. Within 10 years, total U.S. public debt including state and local debt is projected to reach the current debt level of Greece as a percentage of GDP.
The document is a collection of charts prepared by a research team at The Foundation analyzing the financial condition and fiscal outlook of the U.S. government. Section I focuses on debt and deficits, showing that if current policies remain unchanged, debt held by the public is projected to exceed GDP by over 1,000% by 2080. It also breaks down total debt into intragovernmental debt and debt held by the public, with the latter currently around $8.4 trillion or 58% of GDP. Within 10 years, total U.S. public debt including state and local debt is projected to reach Greece's current debt level of 120% of GDP.
- US and Asian stock futures fell and European stocks dropped as concerns over global growth and the outcome of Greece's debt swap weighed on investor sentiment.
- A report showed the eurozone economy contracted 0.3% in Q4 due to declines in investment, exports and consumer spending. A disorderly Greek default could cost the eurozone over 1 trillion euros.
- Private investors holding 20% of the Greek bonds involved in the debt swap have agreed to participate so far. The swap aims to reduce Greece's privately held debt by 53.5%.
- Asian stocks fell sharply led by miners as markets declined globally on growth worries.
This document discusses the impact of Brexit on markets and risks. It shows that while investors were prepared for weakness in the British pound, the key question is whether they will maintain their UK asset holdings. European systemic risk spiked following Brexit, showing markets have become more fragile. Data so far shows investors are not becoming broadly more risk averse in response to Brexit, pointing to "no panic" for now. The document warns that uncertainty from Brexit could lead to a UK recession and discusses potential contagion risks to other European countries.
- US and Asian stock futures fell and European stocks dropped as concerns over global growth and the outcome of Greece's debt swap weighed on sentiment.
- A report showed the eurozone economy contracted 0.3% in Q4 due to declines in investment, exports and consumer spending.
- Private investors holding about 20% of the bonds involved in Greece's debt restructuring have agreed to participate in the swap, which aims to reduce Greece's debt by 53.5%.
- Canadian stocks opened higher led by gains in financial and materials stocks, while US stocks were mixed as investors digested corporate earnings results ahead of US economic data later in the week.
The document provides economic and financial data for Romania from sources including the IMF, World Bank, and Global Finance rankings. It summarizes Romania's GDP, economic growth, expenditures, debt, trade, competitiveness, and rankings for ease of doing business and internet banking. Key data points include a 2010 GDP of $158.4 billion, economic growth estimates for 2010-2011, exports led by machinery and equipment, and rankings of 56th for ease of doing business and 67th for global competitiveness.
1) Under current policies, the U.S. debt held by the public is projected to exceed GDP by over 1,000% by 2080, compared to around 60% of GDP currently.
2) Total U.S. debt including intragovernmental holdings is around $12.9 trillion or 89% of GDP currently, with 58% held by the public and 31% in intragovernmental debt.
3) Eliminating the Bush tax cuts and ending overseas military deployments would have a small impact on long-term fiscal projections, reducing the fiscal gap by around 1.8% of GDP by 2080.
- US stock futures and most Asian markets fell overnight on growth concerns, while European stocks traded slightly higher as investors focused on earnings.
- In Canada, the S&P/TSX composite index rose 0.36% led by gains in gold miners, while the US unemployment rate and jobs data are due out this week.
- Key company earnings news included Manulife beating targets, Suncor reporting higher profits on higher oil prices, and Telus missing estimates due to higher costs.
The document is a collection of charts analyzing the financial condition and fiscal outlook of the U.S. government. Section I focuses on debt and deficits, showing that if current policies remain unchanged, debt held by the public is projected to exceed GDP by over 1,000% by 2080. The total debt includes intragovernmental debt owed to programs like Social Security as well as debt held by the public, both domestic and foreign. Within 10 years, total U.S. public debt including state and local debt is projected to reach the current debt level of Greece as a percentage of GDP.
The document is a collection of charts prepared by a research team at The Foundation analyzing the financial condition and fiscal outlook of the U.S. government. Section I focuses on debt and deficits, showing that if current policies remain unchanged, debt held by the public is projected to exceed GDP by over 1,000% by 2080. It also breaks down total debt into intragovernmental debt and debt held by the public, with the latter currently around $8.4 trillion or 58% of GDP. Within 10 years, total U.S. public debt including state and local debt is projected to reach Greece's current debt level of 120% of GDP.
The Big IF... Stress-testing BREXIT with combined performance and risk analyticsStatPro Group
EU referendum. UK votes to leave or remain. How large asset management firms need to prepare for a possible Brexit with combined performance and risk analytics.
AS/COA
680 Park Avenue
New York, NY
View map
February 18, 2015
Registration: 8:30 a.m. to 9:00 a.m.
Conference: 9:00 a.m. to 10:30 a.m.
AS/COA, ANBIMA, and BRAiN held an on-the-record presentation by Joaquim Levy, Minister of Finance of Brazil.
Welcoming Remarks:
Randy Melzi, Senior Director, Public Policy Programs and Corporate Relations, AS/COA
José Carlos Doherty, Director, BRAiN; Head, ANBIMA
Speaker:
Joaquim Levy, Minister of Finance, Brazil
Download the presentation.
Event Information: Diogo Ide | dide@as-coa.org | 212-277-8352
COA Corporate Membership: Monica Vieira | mvieira@as-coa.org | 212-277-8344
Press Inquiries: Adriana La Rotta | alarotta@as-coa.org | 212-277-8384
If the UK votes to leave the EU ("Brexit"):
- Little will change immediately as the UK negotiates its new relationship with the EU over 2 years
- EU citizens' automatic right to live and work in the UK could be restricted, affecting the workforce supply
- Some employment laws like the Working Time Regulations may be reshaped, but a wholesale repeal is unlikely due to political and legal reasons
- HR and payroll professionals should consider contingencies for how Brexit may impact their workforce and which laws may change
2008:Botswana – Recent Economic Developments and Prospectseconsultbw
Botswana has experienced a recovery in economic growth from 0.6% in 2005/2006 to 6.2% in 2006/2007. Mining continues to dominate GDP at 42% but the non-mining private sector growth has picked up. Inflation remains moderate and the pula has depreciated slightly against the basket. Overall the economy remains robust but future growth depends on further diversification away from mining and government spending.
وجهة نظر مكين في انخفاض العمله الصينية وأثرهاMaceen Capital
The document discusses China's decision to devalue its currency, the yuan, in August 2015. This was done in part to support China's slowing economy by boosting exports. It also aimed to draw international attention and eventually include the yuan in the basket of currencies that make up Special Drawing Rights at the International Monetary Fund. Including the yuan would increase its liquidity and convertibility for global trading. The devaluation had impacts on sectors in Saudi Arabia like petrochemicals that were already facing effects from declines in the riyal and global interest rates.
The document provides forecasts for the Italian NPL and UTP transaction market and servicing industry for 2020 and 2021. It finds that:
1. The NPL ratio in Italy is expected to increase to 7.3% in 2021 from 6.2% in 2020, due to expected higher NPE inflows in 2021 as a result of the 2020 economic downturn.
2. The NPL transaction market is expected to remain dynamic with €34 billion in transactions projected for both 2020 and 2021. Unsecured portfolios are forecast to make up the largest share of transactions in 2020 at 31%.
3. The servicing industry stock of NPEs to manage is expected to grow significantly in 2021, potentially
The document analyzes the potential impacts of Brexit on the UK aviation industry. It finds that the largest impact will likely come from slower economic growth reducing air traffic. Initial forecasts suggest UK traffic in 2020 will be 3-5% lower than without Brexit. The UK will need to secure access to the EU's single aviation market to allow carriers to operate freely. Bilateral agreements with other countries may need to be renegotiated separately from the EU. Border security and facilities are expected to change little in the short term.
The brazilian economy and financing its infrastructure projects - Luciano Cou...BNDES
The document discusses Brazil's economic outlook and infrastructure investment opportunities. It notes that Brazil has strong economic foundations and macroeconomic stability. Infrastructure investment is expected to reach $1.9 trillion from 2013 to 2016, led by investments in logistics which will increase 123%. Financing for infrastructure comes from sources like the BNDES, private banks, pension funds and asset managers. The increased use of corporate bonds is also expected to play a larger role in funding investments going forward.
This document provides a comparison of independent forecasts for the UK economy in 2010 and 2011. It includes tables summarizing forecasts from 20 financial institutions for key indicators such as GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, and government borrowing. The tables show averages and ranges for each indicator based on forecasts made over the past 3 months, as well as averages specifically for the new forecasts received this month.
Banca Ifis reported 9M 2020 results with the following key highlights:
- Net income of €52 million for 9M 2020, within guidance range despite COVID-19 impacts
- Resilient profitability with all quarters of 2020 profitable
- €47 million in COVID-19 related provisions for 9M 2020 to reflect potential longer timeframes and lower recoveries
- CET1 ratio of 11.7%, up 0.7% from year-end 2019 after excluding suspended dividends and 9M net income
Macroeconomic Developments Report. September 2021Latvijas Banka
This document provides an overview of recent macroeconomic developments globally and in the euro area in September 2021. It notes that while the global economic recovery is underway, risks remain from the pandemic and supply chain issues. Growth is strongest in countries with high vaccination rates that have reopened more. The US and euro area are recovering rapidly but inflation has increased due to pandemic-related factors. Commodity prices have risen significantly. The document reviews recent GDP and economic sentiment data for major economies and the euro area, finding the recovery is generally stronger than expected.
Vietnam's state owned enterprises divestment targets - striking a delicate ba...Christiana Wu
Vietnam’s budget deficit is growing amidst dwindling crude oil revenue and ballooning public debt. Will the proceeds from the divestments of multi-billion dollar state-owned companies and highly controversial across-the-board tax hikes proposal be enough to balance the state’s finances? Will the mega sales of Government’s stakes in Vinamilk, Sabeco, Habeco, Petrolimex, Vietnam Airlines, and other corporations be in time to provide desperately needed capital? | For more reports like this? Follow SPEEDA on Linkedin: www.linkedin.com/showcase/3687396/ or visit https://goo.gl/VfHswA
The document discusses the potential economic impacts of Brexit on the UK and global economy. It finds that:
1) Brexit caused immediate shocks in global stock markets and currency fluctuations, but the shock was relatively small compared to past crises.
2) The UK economy is expected to experience reduced growth over the near and long term due to factors such as lower foreign investment, a weaker pound, and reduced migration.
3) The Brexit negotiations process could extend economic uncertainty for two years or more as the UK works to establish new trade agreements with the EU.
Investment opportunities in the brazilian economy (Oportunidades de investime...BNDES
Brazil has strong economic fundamentals and is pursuing increased infrastructure investment to support continued growth. The government aims to invest over $1.9 trillion in infrastructure like energy, transportation and sanitation from 2013 to 2016 through public-private partnerships partially financed by BNDES. Increased infrastructure investment is expected to boost productivity and economic integration, contributing to an estimated 0.5 percentage point increase in potential GDP growth per year.
- U.S. and European stock futures fell while Asian stocks also declined sharply due to concerns about global economic growth and the outcome of Greece's debt restructuring plan.
- Data showed the eurozone economy contracted 0.3% in Q4 due to declines in investment, exports and consumer spending. A report also warned that a Greek default could cost the eurozone over 1 trillion euros.
- Private investors holding around 20% of the bonds in Greece's debt swap declared their participation so far. The swap aims to reduce Greece's debt by 53.5% to help secure its bailout.
- Aecon Group reported a 143% rise in quarterly earnings on improved margins but revenue missed estimates.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. July 2013Latvijas Banka
In the first quarter of 2013, Latvia's exports of goods continued to grow faster than imports in both nominal and real terms, driven by Latvian exporters' competitiveness. However, as external demand contracted and the base effect took over, the annual growth rate of Latvian exports decelerated. Most of Latvia's major trade partners saw downward revisions to economic growth forecasts for 2013. While growth is still expected in countries like Estonia, Lithuania, and Russia, the pace is expected to slow. Contraction in the euro area and weak growth in the UK and other European countries poses risks to Latvia's export growth in the coming quarters.
The document discusses several proposals to raise tobacco taxes in the Philippines to reduce smoking and improve health and revenue. It analyzes the potential impacts of different tax increase proposals on cigarette consumption, smoking prevalence, health costs and tax revenue. The analysis finds that larger tax increases that bring the tax to 65% of the retail price as recommended by the World Bank would achieve the health department's 10% reduction target in under two years, but could negatively impact tax revenues based on some estimates of cigarette demand elasticity. Removing the freeze on cigarette price classification is also analyzed as an alternative that could reduce consumption by over 20% while increasing revenues by over 10%.
- US stock futures and Asian markets fell due to concerns about global growth and the outcome of Greece's debt swap, while European stocks also dropped with banks and resources stocks lower.
- A report showed the eurozone economy contracted 0.3% in Q4, with declines in investment, exports and consumer spending. A memo warned a Greek default could cost the eurozone over $1.36 trillion.
- Private investors holding about 20% of the bonds involved in Greece's debt restructuring have agreed to the swap so far, with the goal of reducing Greek debt by 53.5% to help secure its bailout.
- Aecon Group reported a 143% rise in quarterly earnings as margins improved on lower
Cartwheels On The Tightrope Tips For Handlng Work Stressmgorski
The document provides tips for managing work-related stress, including recognizing your limitations, establishing priorities, focusing on controllable factors, taking time for self-appreciation, stretching your mind daily, using emotional intelligence, staying motivated, leaving work worries behind, maintaining clear boundaries, and maintaining an attitude of gratefulness. Key stress management techniques mentioned are taking care of your physical and mental health, being assertive while staying calm, and talking to trusted individuals.
The Big IF... Stress-testing BREXIT with combined performance and risk analyticsStatPro Group
EU referendum. UK votes to leave or remain. How large asset management firms need to prepare for a possible Brexit with combined performance and risk analytics.
AS/COA
680 Park Avenue
New York, NY
View map
February 18, 2015
Registration: 8:30 a.m. to 9:00 a.m.
Conference: 9:00 a.m. to 10:30 a.m.
AS/COA, ANBIMA, and BRAiN held an on-the-record presentation by Joaquim Levy, Minister of Finance of Brazil.
Welcoming Remarks:
Randy Melzi, Senior Director, Public Policy Programs and Corporate Relations, AS/COA
José Carlos Doherty, Director, BRAiN; Head, ANBIMA
Speaker:
Joaquim Levy, Minister of Finance, Brazil
Download the presentation.
Event Information: Diogo Ide | dide@as-coa.org | 212-277-8352
COA Corporate Membership: Monica Vieira | mvieira@as-coa.org | 212-277-8344
Press Inquiries: Adriana La Rotta | alarotta@as-coa.org | 212-277-8384
If the UK votes to leave the EU ("Brexit"):
- Little will change immediately as the UK negotiates its new relationship with the EU over 2 years
- EU citizens' automatic right to live and work in the UK could be restricted, affecting the workforce supply
- Some employment laws like the Working Time Regulations may be reshaped, but a wholesale repeal is unlikely due to political and legal reasons
- HR and payroll professionals should consider contingencies for how Brexit may impact their workforce and which laws may change
2008:Botswana – Recent Economic Developments and Prospectseconsultbw
Botswana has experienced a recovery in economic growth from 0.6% in 2005/2006 to 6.2% in 2006/2007. Mining continues to dominate GDP at 42% but the non-mining private sector growth has picked up. Inflation remains moderate and the pula has depreciated slightly against the basket. Overall the economy remains robust but future growth depends on further diversification away from mining and government spending.
وجهة نظر مكين في انخفاض العمله الصينية وأثرهاMaceen Capital
The document discusses China's decision to devalue its currency, the yuan, in August 2015. This was done in part to support China's slowing economy by boosting exports. It also aimed to draw international attention and eventually include the yuan in the basket of currencies that make up Special Drawing Rights at the International Monetary Fund. Including the yuan would increase its liquidity and convertibility for global trading. The devaluation had impacts on sectors in Saudi Arabia like petrochemicals that were already facing effects from declines in the riyal and global interest rates.
The document provides forecasts for the Italian NPL and UTP transaction market and servicing industry for 2020 and 2021. It finds that:
1. The NPL ratio in Italy is expected to increase to 7.3% in 2021 from 6.2% in 2020, due to expected higher NPE inflows in 2021 as a result of the 2020 economic downturn.
2. The NPL transaction market is expected to remain dynamic with €34 billion in transactions projected for both 2020 and 2021. Unsecured portfolios are forecast to make up the largest share of transactions in 2020 at 31%.
3. The servicing industry stock of NPEs to manage is expected to grow significantly in 2021, potentially
The document analyzes the potential impacts of Brexit on the UK aviation industry. It finds that the largest impact will likely come from slower economic growth reducing air traffic. Initial forecasts suggest UK traffic in 2020 will be 3-5% lower than without Brexit. The UK will need to secure access to the EU's single aviation market to allow carriers to operate freely. Bilateral agreements with other countries may need to be renegotiated separately from the EU. Border security and facilities are expected to change little in the short term.
The brazilian economy and financing its infrastructure projects - Luciano Cou...BNDES
The document discusses Brazil's economic outlook and infrastructure investment opportunities. It notes that Brazil has strong economic foundations and macroeconomic stability. Infrastructure investment is expected to reach $1.9 trillion from 2013 to 2016, led by investments in logistics which will increase 123%. Financing for infrastructure comes from sources like the BNDES, private banks, pension funds and asset managers. The increased use of corporate bonds is also expected to play a larger role in funding investments going forward.
This document provides a comparison of independent forecasts for the UK economy in 2010 and 2011. It includes tables summarizing forecasts from 20 financial institutions for key indicators such as GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, and government borrowing. The tables show averages and ranges for each indicator based on forecasts made over the past 3 months, as well as averages specifically for the new forecasts received this month.
Banca Ifis reported 9M 2020 results with the following key highlights:
- Net income of €52 million for 9M 2020, within guidance range despite COVID-19 impacts
- Resilient profitability with all quarters of 2020 profitable
- €47 million in COVID-19 related provisions for 9M 2020 to reflect potential longer timeframes and lower recoveries
- CET1 ratio of 11.7%, up 0.7% from year-end 2019 after excluding suspended dividends and 9M net income
Macroeconomic Developments Report. September 2021Latvijas Banka
This document provides an overview of recent macroeconomic developments globally and in the euro area in September 2021. It notes that while the global economic recovery is underway, risks remain from the pandemic and supply chain issues. Growth is strongest in countries with high vaccination rates that have reopened more. The US and euro area are recovering rapidly but inflation has increased due to pandemic-related factors. Commodity prices have risen significantly. The document reviews recent GDP and economic sentiment data for major economies and the euro area, finding the recovery is generally stronger than expected.
Vietnam's state owned enterprises divestment targets - striking a delicate ba...Christiana Wu
Vietnam’s budget deficit is growing amidst dwindling crude oil revenue and ballooning public debt. Will the proceeds from the divestments of multi-billion dollar state-owned companies and highly controversial across-the-board tax hikes proposal be enough to balance the state’s finances? Will the mega sales of Government’s stakes in Vinamilk, Sabeco, Habeco, Petrolimex, Vietnam Airlines, and other corporations be in time to provide desperately needed capital? | For more reports like this? Follow SPEEDA on Linkedin: www.linkedin.com/showcase/3687396/ or visit https://goo.gl/VfHswA
The document discusses the potential economic impacts of Brexit on the UK and global economy. It finds that:
1) Brexit caused immediate shocks in global stock markets and currency fluctuations, but the shock was relatively small compared to past crises.
2) The UK economy is expected to experience reduced growth over the near and long term due to factors such as lower foreign investment, a weaker pound, and reduced migration.
3) The Brexit negotiations process could extend economic uncertainty for two years or more as the UK works to establish new trade agreements with the EU.
Investment opportunities in the brazilian economy (Oportunidades de investime...BNDES
Brazil has strong economic fundamentals and is pursuing increased infrastructure investment to support continued growth. The government aims to invest over $1.9 trillion in infrastructure like energy, transportation and sanitation from 2013 to 2016 through public-private partnerships partially financed by BNDES. Increased infrastructure investment is expected to boost productivity and economic integration, contributing to an estimated 0.5 percentage point increase in potential GDP growth per year.
- U.S. and European stock futures fell while Asian stocks also declined sharply due to concerns about global economic growth and the outcome of Greece's debt restructuring plan.
- Data showed the eurozone economy contracted 0.3% in Q4 due to declines in investment, exports and consumer spending. A report also warned that a Greek default could cost the eurozone over 1 trillion euros.
- Private investors holding around 20% of the bonds in Greece's debt swap declared their participation so far. The swap aims to reduce Greece's debt by 53.5% to help secure its bailout.
- Aecon Group reported a 143% rise in quarterly earnings on improved margins but revenue missed estimates.
Macroeconomic Developments Report. July 2013Latvijas Banka
In the first quarter of 2013, Latvia's exports of goods continued to grow faster than imports in both nominal and real terms, driven by Latvian exporters' competitiveness. However, as external demand contracted and the base effect took over, the annual growth rate of Latvian exports decelerated. Most of Latvia's major trade partners saw downward revisions to economic growth forecasts for 2013. While growth is still expected in countries like Estonia, Lithuania, and Russia, the pace is expected to slow. Contraction in the euro area and weak growth in the UK and other European countries poses risks to Latvia's export growth in the coming quarters.
The document discusses several proposals to raise tobacco taxes in the Philippines to reduce smoking and improve health and revenue. It analyzes the potential impacts of different tax increase proposals on cigarette consumption, smoking prevalence, health costs and tax revenue. The analysis finds that larger tax increases that bring the tax to 65% of the retail price as recommended by the World Bank would achieve the health department's 10% reduction target in under two years, but could negatively impact tax revenues based on some estimates of cigarette demand elasticity. Removing the freeze on cigarette price classification is also analyzed as an alternative that could reduce consumption by over 20% while increasing revenues by over 10%.
- US stock futures and Asian markets fell due to concerns about global growth and the outcome of Greece's debt swap, while European stocks also dropped with banks and resources stocks lower.
- A report showed the eurozone economy contracted 0.3% in Q4, with declines in investment, exports and consumer spending. A memo warned a Greek default could cost the eurozone over $1.36 trillion.
- Private investors holding about 20% of the bonds involved in Greece's debt restructuring have agreed to the swap so far, with the goal of reducing Greek debt by 53.5% to help secure its bailout.
- Aecon Group reported a 143% rise in quarterly earnings as margins improved on lower
Cartwheels On The Tightrope Tips For Handlng Work Stressmgorski
The document provides tips for managing work-related stress, including recognizing your limitations, establishing priorities, focusing on controllable factors, taking time for self-appreciation, stretching your mind daily, using emotional intelligence, staying motivated, leaving work worries behind, maintaining clear boundaries, and maintaining an attitude of gratefulness. Key stress management techniques mentioned are taking care of your physical and mental health, being assertive while staying calm, and talking to trusted individuals.
Cartwheels On The Tightrope: Handling Work Stress with Grace and Easemgorski
The document provides tips for managing work-related stress, including recognizing your limitations, establishing priorities, focusing on controllable factors, taking time for self-appreciation, stretching your mind daily, staying motivated, maintaining a healthy lifestyle, leaving work worries behind, setting clear boundaries, and maintaining a grateful and positive attitude. Key stress management techniques mentioned are taking care of your physical and mental health, being assertive while staying calm, and talking to trusted individuals.
Cartwheels on the Tightrope - Tips for Handlng Work Stressmgorski
The document provides tips for handling work stress with grace and ease. Some key points include:
1) Recognize that you can't do it all and establish priorities and pace yourself. Focus on what you can control rather than things out of your control.
2) Take time for self-care like taking breaks, staying healthy, and leaving work worries behind when leaving for the day.
3) Practice techniques like compartmentalizing tasks, concentrating until each one is done, and maintaining a sense of humor.
This document lists various credentials and online profiles for an individual from 2014-present. It includes credentials for postmen, propeller digital, yalta digital forum, web development experience from 2014, and links to Facebook, VKontakte, and other social media profiles for the individual across various companies and organizations from that time period.
Соцмережі, які продають: тренди і кейси 2015 Yaroslav Vedmid
Соціальні мережі охоплюють 15 млн українців. Це причина №1 для користування інтернетом і головний фактов, чому росте кількість часу, яку українці проводять онлайн. Презентація узагальнює тренди і успішні приклади з портфелю агенції Postmen
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive function. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms.
Починаємо працювати над концепцією трансформації Чорнобильскої зони в глобальний туристичний дістінейшн
Have launched developments to transform Chernobyl Zone to the Most Extreme Destination on the Earth. #1Ukrainian Travel Destination
Tourism and Travel Statistics at Statistics AustriaYaroslav Vedmid
The document discusses tourism and travel statistics presented at the Voorburg Group Meeting in Vienna, Austria. It provides an overview of tourism and travel statistics within Austria's balance of payments system and the main projects at Statistics Austria. It also summarizes the methodology and concepts of Austria's tourism satellite accounts, selected key results on tourism, and concludes by emphasizing the importance and challenges of collecting tourism statistics.
Поки світ готується до Олімпіади в Токіо в 2020, в Токіо готуються в 2020 провести першу Олімпіаду Роботів. Японія на затвердила програму, яка передбачає заміну вибуваючо робочих ресурсів в силу старіння нації роботами. Роботи ж мають стати основою догляду за цією старіючою нацією.
Federal Budget FY21: A Barrier Eclipsing ReliefSCPL Capital
FY21 : Key Budgetary Targets
GDP is expected to grow 2.2% vs. -0.4% in FY20e
Inflation to clock in at 6.5% as compared to 10.9% in FY20e
PSDP allocation of 1.3trn (up 13% YoY)
Tax revenue targeted at PKR4.7trn (up ~1trn YoY)
Fiscal Deficit to stand at 7% vs. 9.1% in FY21
The document summarizes the key points of Nigeria's 2010 budget and its potential impact on the business environment. It outlines the budget's assumptions around oil prices, GDP growth, exchange rates and inflation. A large portion of the budget will fund infrastructure projects in power, transport and agriculture. This is expected to improve infrastructure and lower costs, though high inflation remains a risk. The budget also aims to increase non-oil revenues and boost security spending in the Niger Delta to support business and investment.
1
OECD TAX DATABASE
EXPLANATORY ANNEX
PART II
TAXATION OF CORPORATE AND CAPITAL
INCOME
(Document updated October 2016)
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Table of contents
II.1. BELGIUM 4
II.1. CANADA 5
II.1. CHILE 5
II.1. FRANCE 5
II.1. GERMANY 6
II.1. GREECE 6
II.1. HUNGARY 9
II.1. ISRAEL 9
II.1. ITALY 10
II.1. LATVIA 16
II.1. LUXEMBOURG 17
II.1. MEXICO 18
II.1. NETHERLANDS 18
II.1. NORWAY 18
II.1. POLAND 19
II.1. SLOVAK REPUBLIC 19
II.1. SLOVENIA 20
II.1. SWITZERLAND 20
II.1. UNITED STATES 20
II.2. BELGIUM 22
II.2. CANADA 24
II.2. CHILE 25
II.2. CZECH REPUBLIC 25
II.2. HUNGARY 26
II.2. ISRAEL 26
II.2. ITALY 27
II.2. LATVIA 27
II.2. MEXICO 27
II.2. NETHERLANDS 28
II.2. NORWAY 28
II.2. PORTUGAL 28
II.2. SLOVAK REPUBLIC 29
II.2. SPAIN 29
II.2. UNITED KINGDOM 30
II.2. UNITED STATES 31
II.3. CANADA 32
II.3. GERMANY 33
II.3. LUXEMBOURG 33
II.3. KOREA 33
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II.3. PORTUGAL 33
II.3. SWITZERLAND 34
II.3. UNITED STATES 34
II.4. AUSTRIA 36
II.4. BELGIUM 36
II.4. CANADA 37
II.4. CHILE 37
II.4. FINLAND 37
II.4 FRANCE 37
II.4. GERMANY 38
II.4. GREECE 39
II.4. HUNGARY 40
II.4. IRELAND 41
II.4. ISRAEL 41
II.4. ITALY 42
II.4. KOREA 43
II.4. LATVIA 43
II.4. MEXICO 43
II.4. NETHERLANDS 43
II.4. NORWAY 43
II.4. PORTUGAL 44
II.4. SLOVAK REPUBLIC 44
II.4. SLOVENIA 44
II.4. SWITZERLAND 44
II.4. UNITED STATES 45
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4
PART II. TAXATION OF CORPORATE AND CAPITAL INCOME
PART II, TABLE 1
CORPORATE INCOME TAX RATES
II.1. BELGIUM
The effective CIT rate can be substantially reduced by an allowance for corporate equity (ACE). The
amount of this allowance is neither related to the behaviour nor to the results of the company, but depends
only upon the amount of qualifying corporate equity and the yield on long term government bonds. There
is however an upper limit. The original upper limit (of 6.5 % for non-SMEs) was first temporarily reduced
to 3.8% in 2010 and 2011 and then permanently lowed to 3% from 2012 onwards. The effectively applied
ACE-rates are listed in the table below. Stricter carry forward rules concerning unused ACE-deductible
amounts were implemented from 2013 onwards.
Notional
interest
rate (ACE-
rate)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Non-SMEs 3.442% 3.781% 4.307% 4.473% 3.8% 3.425% 3% 2.742% 2.63% 1.6 ...
1
OECD TAX DATABASE
EXPLANATORY ANNEX
PART II
TAXATION OF CORPORATE AND CAPITAL
INCOME
(Document updated October 2016)
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2
Table of contents
II.1. BELGIUM 4
II.1. CANADA 5
II.1. CHILE 5
II.1. FRANCE 5
II.1. GERMANY 6
II.1. GREECE 6
II.1. HUNGARY 9
II.1. ISRAEL 9
II.1. ITALY 10
II.1. LATVIA 16
II.1. LUXEMBOURG 17
II.1. MEXICO 18
II.1. NETHERLANDS 18
II.1. NORWAY 18
II.1. POLAND 19
II.1. SLOVAK REPUBLIC 19
II.1. SLOVENIA 20
II.1. SWITZERLAND 20
II.1. UNITED STATES 20
II.2. BELGIUM 22
II.2. CANADA 24
II.2. CHILE 25
II.2. CZECH REPUBLIC 25
II.2. HUNGARY 26
II.2. ISRAEL 26
II.2. ITALY 27
II.2. LATVIA 27
II.2. MEXICO 27
II.2. NETHERLANDS 28
II.2. NORWAY 28
II.2. PORTUGAL 28
II.2. SLOVAK REPUBLIC 29
II.2. SPAIN 29
II.2. UNITED KINGDOM 30
II.2. UNITED STATES 31
II.3. CANADA 32
II.3. GERMANY 33
II.3. LUXEMBOURG 33
II.3. KOREA 33
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II.3. PORTUGAL 33
II.3. SWITZERLAND 34
II.3. UNITED STATES 34
II.4. AUSTRIA 36
II.4. BELGIUM 36
II.4. CANADA 37
II.4. CHILE 37
II.4. FINLAND 37
II.4 FRANCE 37
II.4. GERMANY 38
II.4. GREECE 39
II.4. HUNGARY 40
II.4. IRELAND 41
II.4. ISRAEL 41
II.4. ITALY 42
II.4. KOREA 43
II.4. LATVIA 43
II.4. MEXICO 43
II.4. NETHERLANDS 43
II.4. NORWAY 43
II.4. PORTUGAL 44
II.4. SLOVAK REPUBLIC 44
II.4. SLOVENIA 44
II.4. SWITZERLAND 44
II.4. UNITED STATES 45
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4
PART II. TAXATION OF CORPORATE AND CAPITAL INCOME
PART II, TABLE 1
CORPORATE INCOME TAX RATES
II.1. BELGIUM
The effective CIT rate can be substantially reduced by an allowance for corporate equity (ACE). The
amount of this allowance is neither related to the behaviour nor to the results of the company, but depends
only upon the amount of qualifying corporate equity and the yield on long term government bonds. There
is however an upper limit. The original upper limit (of 6.5 % for non-SMEs) was first temporarily reduced
to 3.8% in 2010 and 2011 and then permanently lowed to 3% from 2012 onwards. The effectively applied
ACE-rates are listed in the table below. Stricter carry forward rules concerning unused ACE-deductible
amounts were implemented from 2013 onwards.
Notional
interest
rate (ACE-
rate)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Non-SMEs 3.442% 3.781% 4.307% 4.473% 3.8% 3.425% 3% 2.742% 2.63% 1.6.
1
OECD TAX DATABASE
EXPLANATORY ANNEX
PART II
TAXATION OF CORPORATE AND CAPITAL
INCOME
(Document updated October 2016)
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Table of contents
II.1. BELGIUM 4
II.1. CANADA 5
II.1. CHILE 5
II.1. FRANCE 5
II.1. GERMANY 6
II.1. GREECE 6
II.1. HUNGARY 9
II.1. ISRAEL 9
II.1. ITALY 10
II.1. LATVIA 16
II.1. LUXEMBOURG 17
II.1. MEXICO 18
II.1. NETHERLANDS 18
II.1. NORWAY 18
II.1. POLAND 19
II.1. SLOVAK REPUBLIC 19
II.1. SLOVENIA 20
II.1. SWITZERLAND 20
II.1. UNITED STATES 20
II.2. BELGIUM 22
II.2. CANADA 24
II.2. CHILE 25
II.2. CZECH REPUBLIC 25
II.2. HUNGARY 26
II.2. ISRAEL 26
II.2. ITALY 27
II.2. LATVIA 27
II.2. MEXICO 27
II.2. NETHERLANDS 28
II.2. NORWAY 28
II.2. PORTUGAL 28
II.2. SLOVAK REPUBLIC 29
II.2. SPAIN 29
II.2. UNITED KINGDOM 30
II.2. UNITED STATES 31
II.3. CANADA 32
II.3. GERMANY 33
II.3. LUXEMBOURG 33
II.3. KOREA 33
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II.3. PORTUGAL 33
II.3. SWITZERLAND 34
II.3. UNITED STATES 34
II.4. AUSTRIA 36
II.4. BELGIUM 36
II.4. CANADA 37
II.4. CHILE 37
II.4. FINLAND 37
II.4 FRANCE 37
II.4. GERMANY 38
II.4. GREECE 39
II.4. HUNGARY 40
II.4. IRELAND 41
II.4. ISRAEL 41
II.4. ITALY 42
II.4. KOREA 43
II.4. LATVIA 43
II.4. MEXICO 43
II.4. NETHERLANDS 43
II.4. NORWAY 43
II.4. PORTUGAL 44
II.4. SLOVAK REPUBLIC 44
II.4. SLOVENIA 44
II.4. SWITZERLAND 44
II.4. UNITED STATES 45
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4
PART II. TAXATION OF CORPORATE AND CAPITAL INCOME
PART II, TABLE 1
CORPORATE INCOME TAX RATES
II.1. BELGIUM
The effective CIT rate can be substantially reduced by an allowance for corporate equity (ACE). The
amount of this allowance is neither related to the behaviour nor to the results of the company, but depends
only upon the amount of qualifying corporate equity and the yield on long term government bonds. There
is however an upper limit. The original upper limit (of 6.5 % for non-SMEs) was first temporarily reduced
to 3.8% in 2010 and 2011 and then permanently lowed to 3% from 2012 onwards. The effectively applied
ACE-rates are listed in the table below. Stricter carry forward rules concerning unused ACE-deductible
amounts were implemented from 2013 onwards.
Notional
interest
rate (ACE-
rate)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Non-SMEs 3.442% 3.781% 4.307% 4.473% 3.8% 3.425% 3% 2.742% 2.63% 1.6 ...
The document provides an overview of corporate taxation in China. Some key points:
1) China implemented a new Corporate Income Tax Law on January 1, 2008 that unified the tax rate for foreign and domestic companies at 25%, phasing out preferential rates previously enjoyed by foreign firms.
2) Certain sectors like high-tech may qualify for a preferential 15% rate. Small companies meet certain criteria qualify for 20% rate.
3) The new law aims to simplify the previous complex tax rules but some tax holidays and incentives will remain for qualifying companies.
4) The State Administration of Taxation administers tax policies set by the State Council and Ministry of Finance. China's tax system includes both direct corporate
This document provides an overview and summary of key proposed amendments to Pakistan's Finance Bill 2015, which take effect on July 1, 2015. Some notable changes include the introduction of a one-time 3-4% super tax on high-income individuals and companies to fund displaced persons; increasing the tax rate on undistributed reserves of public companies to 10%; and reducing the corporate tax rate for non-banking companies to 32% by 2016. It also outlines proposed amendments to income tax, sales tax, federal excise duty, and the gas infrastructure development cess.
Union Budget 2012-13 aimed to boost growth while reducing the fiscal deficit. Key measures included increasing indirect tax rates to pave way for GST, introducing GAAR to curb tax avoidance, and relaxing ECB norms to support infrastructure and other sectors. However, the proposed retrospective amendment to tax indirect transfer of Indian assets could face legal challenges and impact investment. Overall the budget focused on fiscal consolidation and growth, but timely implementation will determine its effectiveness.
In addition to laws that protect foreign investors, Argentina has a number of regimes designed to promote direct investments and economic development by both domestic and foreign investors:
1. Investment Incentives for Capital Goods and Infrastructure
2. Sector Incentives
3. Provincial and Regional Incentives
4. Incentives for Innovation and Technology Development
5. Main employment and Training Incentives
6. Financial Programs
7. Export Promotion
This document was produced by ProsperAr, Argentina´s Investment Development Agency.
If you need further assistance contact us at info@prosperar.gov.ar or use our website www.prosperar.gov.ar.
KI a INESS v spolupráci s ďalšími partnermi organizovali medzinárodnú
konferenciu v rámci Free Market Road Show 2012 na tému Európa na ceste do
nevoľníctva?, ktorá sa konala dňa 27. apríla 2012 v Bratislave. Pozrite si
prezentáciu Daneila Mitchella. Viac informácií na
www.konzervativizmus.sk.
Lithuanian Economy, No. 5 - July 17, 2012 Swedbank
Higher than expected economic growth and measures to reduce the shadow economy led to higher than planned budget revenues in Lithuania during the first six months of 2012. General government debt is forecast to peak this year at 40% of GDP before starting to decrease. Interest rates on Lithuania's borrowing have been falling faster than other Baltic countries, and ratification of the Fiscal Pact could have a positive impact on borrowing costs. The social security fund's deficit will account for most of the general government deficit in 2012 and 2013.
The document summarizes key points from the Indian Union Budget presented by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee on February 28, 2011. It outlines the economy's growth at 8.6% and challenges around inflation management. The budget aims for fiscal consolidation with a fiscal deficit of 4.6% in 2012. It proposes various tax reforms including changes to income tax slabs, service tax and customs duty. It also allocates spending toward sectors like agriculture, education, health and outlines the expected impact on various industries.
Webinar: Economic Impact Assessment of the Pillar One and Pillar Two proposal...OECDtax
As part of the work by the OECD/G20 Inclusive Framework on BEPS relating to the tax challenges arising from the digitalisation of the economy, the OECD has been carrying out an economic analysis and impact assessment of the Pillar One and Pillar Two proposals. Experts from the OECD's Centre for Tax Policy and Administration and Economics Department presented the methodology and estimates of the impact assessment during this webinar.
Further information: http://oe.cd/tax-challenges-digital-impact-assessment
Union Budget 2009 Accretive Special CommuniqueVishnu Bagri
The document provides an overview and summary of key proposals from the Indian Union Budget for 2009. Some key points:
- No changes were made to corporate or personal income tax rates. MAT was increased to 15% from 10% for companies.
- Exemption limits for personal income tax and wealth tax were increased. Fringe benefits tax was abolished.
- GST is planned for implementation in April 2010 to integrate goods and services taxes.
- Key proposals focused on improving tax system efficiency and equity while continuing fiscal support for certain sectors.
The Union Budget of India for 2014-15 was presented on July 10th, 2014. Some key points:
- Total expenditure estimated at Rs. 17,94,892 crore, with non-plan expenditure at Rs. 12,19,892 crore and plan expenditure at Rs. 5,75,000 crore.
- Gross tax receipts estimated at Rs. 13,64,524 crore. Revenue deficit estimated at Rs. 3,78,348 crore and fiscal deficit estimated at Rs. 5,31,177 crore, or 4.1% of GDP.
- Priority areas included reviving GDP growth, balancing fiscal consolidation and public spending, and focusing on infrastructure investment
The key points of the budget are:
1) The fiscal deficit is projected to be 5.2% of GDP for the current year and 4.8% for next year as the government pledges further fiscal consolidation.
2) No change in personal income tax slabs but a tax credit of Rs. 2000 is provided for those with income up to Rs. 5 lakhs. Surcharge is increased for high income individuals and companies.
3) Service tax and customs duty rates remain unchanged while excise duty and import duty are increased on some items like cigarettes, SUVs, mobiles and set-top boxes.
4) Measures to boost investment in infrastructure like infrastructure
The presentation is about current economic indicators of Kazakhstan and new accelerated innovative-industrial strategy of Kazakhstan development till 2015.
It was presented by Anuar Kuzhikayev, Embassy of the Republic of Kazakhstan to USA on 21 January 2011.
This document discusses public finance, taxation, and government expenditure in Pakistan. It provides an overview of Pakistan's taxation system, including direct taxes like income tax and indirect taxes like sales tax, federal excise duty, and customs duty. It notes that taxation is crucial for generating government revenue but that Pakistan has a low tax-to-GDP ratio. The document also examines problems with Pakistan's taxation system such as widespread exemptions, an large undocumented economy, and recommends solutions like bringing more sectors into the tax net, reforming agricultural income tax, and improving tax administration.
La semana próxima ingresará una nueva Rendición de Cuentas al Parlamento. En un contexto de mejora de los indicadores fiscales y de demandas por cambios en algunas asignaciones presupuestales, nos pareció oportuno analizar detalladamente el estado de las cuentas públicas. De esta forma, les ofrecemos una nueva edición de nuestra #RadiografíaDelSectorPúblico, con el objetivo de generar insumos para el debate ante la instancia de rendición de cuentas que se avecina.
The document summarizes Pakistan's fiscal policy and economic performance in recent years. It notes that Pakistan experienced serious macroeconomic imbalances in FY2007-08. To address this, the government passed a Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act in 2005 requiring adherence to fiscal targets. The document reviews Pakistan's fiscal performance in FY2007-08 and projections for FY2008-09, including projections that the fiscal deficit will decline to 4.2% of GDP in 2008-09 from 7.4% in 2007-08. It also discusses trends in revenues, expenditures, debt levels, and the government's efforts to reform taxation policies to generate more sustainable revenues.
Що Українці знають і думають про Голодомор, наскільки готові підтримувати створення Музею і якими внесками.
Дослідження за методологією Postmen Online Poll проведен в червні 2020 року
This document provides examples of digital marketing campaigns conducted by an agency for various clients. It summarizes campaigns that increased sales for a cinema chain and popcorn sales, engaged customers for a TV channel and home appliances brand, and drove tourism for a ski resort. The agency provides full-service digital support including social media, websites, video production, and performance marketing.
This document discusses using data science and behavioral science to drive targeted digital engagement for behavior change. It covers how advances in computing, data availability, and machine learning enable detailed consumer segmentation. Models analyze survey, demographic, and behavioral data to understand personality traits, motivations, and the factors that drive intentions and actions. Advertising is optimized across digital channels, addressable TV, and linear TV to target consumers at different stages of consideration and purchase. Ongoing testing and optimization help refine targeting and messaging to most effectively guide behavior.
The document discusses a strategic game about a market. It lists several team names on a mountain and asks about their strengths, weaknesses, strategies, and tactics. It also asks what is known about the other teams and what rumors or trends exist. An inventory is taken of equipment and resources. The document outlines developing a strategy and action plan for the team to follow.
The document outlines branding guidelines for various items including medals, trophies, diplomas, and branding for a ski resort, social media pages, and sport events. It includes examples of designs for medals, certificates, and branded merchandise, as well as guidelines for using corporate logos and styles for social media branding.
This document lists various credentials and online profiles for an individual from 2014-present. It includes credentials for postmen, propeller digital, yalta digital forum, web development experience from 2014, and links to Facebook, VKontakte, and other social media profiles for the individual across various companies and organizations from that time period.
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive functioning. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms.
Як наповнити курорт в безнадійне міжсезоння - восени? Про це наш бронзовий кейс на Effie Awards Ukraine 2016 - перемога в номінаціях "Сезонний маркетинг" і "Подорожі, розваги, спорт, туризм".
Японське Міністерство Економіки в 2015 оголосило стратегію Роботизації, яка передбачає нарощення лідерства Японії в цій сфері. Серед іншого, планують перші Олімпійські Ігри серед роботів в 2020 році (одночасно з людськими Олімпійськими Іграми в Токіо), побудова суспільства без барьєрів для роботів, де вільно спііснуватимуть і співпрацюватимуть люди і роботи.
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive functioning. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help boost feelings of calmness, happiness and focus.
1. MACRO RESEARCH
Ukraine
TAX CODE December 6, 2010
Neutral for Economy, Long-Term Positive for Stock Market
Ukraine’s newly approved Tax Code is set to enter into effect on Jan. 1, 2011 after Key Tax Rate Dynamics
parliament passed a revised version of the document last Thursday and President 30% Corporate Tax VAT
Viktor Yanukovych promptly signed it into law on the following day. Its most
25%
immediate implication is that the government can legitimately proceed with
20%
drafting the 2011 budget based on new taxation rules. Submitting a realistic budget
with a deficit trimmed to 3.5% of GDP is one of the IMF’s key requirements for 15%
disbursing its next $1.5bn loan tranche from a $15bn Stand-by package for Ukraine 10%
by the end of December. 5%
The new tax law cuts the corporate tax rate by 2pp annually through 2014, from the 0%
current 25% to 16%, and grants a 10-year exemption to aircraft makers, 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F 2014F
shipbuilders and hotels among others. VAT is to be lowered to 17% from 20% in
2014. This is obviously no turnaround for the current cumbersome tax system but
still will ease the overall tax burden, benefiting large- and medium-sized Fiscal Balance* (% of GDP)
companies in the first place. 0%
The document leaves intact a special tax regime for agro producers but changes (2%)
VAT regulations on grain sales intended to solve the VAT refund problem and (4%)
make grain exports more transparent. It also hikes royalties for oil and gas (6%) IMF target
producers as well as confirms earlier approved increases in excise rates on oil (8%)
(10%)
Actual
products, alcohol and tobacco. No less importantly, the Code keeps the existing
simplified taxation regime (STR) for individual entrepreneurs and limits the 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011F
powers tax authorities can exercise vis-à-vis business, thus rectifying the most Note: *data for 2009 onwards includes Naftogaz
problematic issues that triggered mass street protests by small businessmen and Ukrainy
forced Yanukovych to veto the original legislation and ask parliament to approve Stock Market
his amended version on Dec. 2.
PFTS Volume ($m; lhs) UX Volume ($m; lhs)
We think the overall impact of the Tax Code on the economy will be neutral to KP-Dragon Index (rhs)
positive, with gains for large businesses, which account for an estimated 70-80% of 25 5,200
Ukrainian GDP, to be partly offset by negatives for small businessmen. The impact 20 5,000
on budget revenues is likely to be insignificant. We estimate revenue losses due to 15 4,800
the lower corporate tax rate at about 0.3% of GDP in 2011, which is likely to be fully 4,600
10
offset by higher excise rates and royalties as well as measures aimed at combating 4,400
tax evasion. 5 4,200
We estimate the planned rate cuts, lower tax expenses and resulting increase in 0 4,000
profitability will yield a long-term positive valuation effect of 10% for listed 15-Jun 14-Jul 11-Aug 9-Sep 7-Oct 4-Nov 2-Dec
companies. Among those, we single out Ukrnafta, Motor Sich and Zaliv Shipyard,
which should benefit from the corporate tax exemption and other industry-specific
privileges. For other companies, the planned corporate and VAT rate cuts should
produce a positive effect by enabling them to earmark additional funds for
expansion and modernization.
Key Macroeconomic Indicators
Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011F
Real GDP growth (y-o-y; %) 12.1% 2.7% 7.3% 7.9% 2.1% (15.1%) 5.0% 4.5%
Nominal GDP ($bn) 64.9 86.1 107.8 142.7 180.0 117.3 139.5 169.9
Real industrial growth (y-o-y; %) 12.5% 3.1% 6.2% 10.2% (3.1%) (21.9%) 10.0% 6.5%
Consumer price index (e-o-p; %) 12.3% 10.3% 11.6% 16.6% 22.3% 12.3% 9.5% 10.5%
General gov’t & Naftogaz balances* (% of GDP) (4.4%) (2.3%) (1.4%) (2.0%) (3.2%) (6.3%) (5.4%) (5.0%)
Total public debt (% of GDP) 24.7% 17.7% 14.8% 12.3% 19.9% 34.7% 38.9% 39.4%
C/A balance (% of GDP) 10.6% 2.9% (1.4%) (3.7%) (7.1%) (1.5%) (2.0%) (2.5%)
Net FDI ($bn) 1.7 7.5 5.7 9.2 9.9 4.5 5.5 8.0
NBU gross international reserves ($bn) 9.5 19.4 22.3 32.5 31.5 26.5 36.0 43.0
UAH:USD (market rate; e-o-p) 5.31 5.05 5.05 5.05 7.85 8.00 7.85 7.50
UAH:USD (market rate; avg.) 5.32 5.12 5.05 5.05 5.31 8.14 7.92 7.68
Note: *includes the central and local budgets, Pension Fund and, from 2009 onwards, Naftogaz Ukrainy, but excludes bank recapitalization costs.
Sources: Government statistics, National Bank of Ukraine, Dragon Capital estimates and forecasts
Analysts: Olena Bilan, Sergiy Gayda, Taisia Shepetko, Email: research@dragon-capital.com
Tamara Levchenko, Dennis Sakva (+380 44) 490 7120 www.dragon-capital.ua
2. December 6, 2010
TAX CODE OVERVIEW
The Verkhovna Rada last Thursday approved the final version of the Tax Code Parliament approved a revised
incorporating amendments submitted by President Viktor Yanukovych after he Tax Code with presidential
vetoed the original document. It took Yanukovych only one day to sign the new bill amendments…
into law with the official enactment date of Jan. 1, 2011. The Code keeps intact the
existing simplified taxation regime (STR) for individual entrepreneurs but it is to be
revised later on. The document, unlike its previous version, also limits the powers tax
authorities can exercise vis-à-vis business, thus rectifying the most problematic issues
that triggered mass street protests by small businessmen in the past two weeks.
The most important changes introduced by the Code include: …that overhauls tax legislation
• The corporate income tax rate will be reduced gradually from the current
25% to 16% in 2014, with light industry companies, hotels, aircraft
producers, shipbuilders and producers of agricultural machinery to enjoy a
10-year exemption.
• The VAT rate will be cut by 3pp to 17% in 2014. The Code specifies
eligibility criteria for automatic VAT refunding and imposes fines on the
government for delaying such refunds.
• The document leaves intact a special tax regime for agricultural producers
and hikes royalties for oil and gas as well as confirms earlier approved hikes
in excise rates on oil products, alcohol and tobacco.
• A number of minor taxes were scrapped.
We summarize these and other major changes below.
Tax Current status Adopted changes
Corporate profit tax 25% 23% from 2011
21% from 2012
19% from 2013
16% from 2014
10-year tax holidays for the light industry, hotels, aircraft makers, shipbuilders and producers of
agricultural machinery; 5-year tax holidays for small businesses and startups
VAT 20% 17% from 2014; automatic VAT refunding for eligible companies; the government faces fines in
case of delaying refunds; ; zero rate for agro producers and exporters (excluding trading companies)
Personal income tax 15% 15% for monthly incomes below 10x minimum wage (UAH 9,220 as of Dec. 1);
17% for monthly incomes above 10x minimum wage
Excise taxes on oil products No changes in Tax Code but parliament earlier approved 38-40% hikes effective 2011
Excise taxes on alcohol and tobacco No changes in Tax Code but parliament earlier approved a 7% increase effective 2011 (not applied
to beer producers)
Oil royalties 40% hike from 2011
Gas royalties 18.5% hike from 2011
Simplified Taxation Regime (STR) for small businesses No changes in rates and thresholds; costs of goods and services purchased from entrepreneurs using STR
(except IT services) by companies subject to general taxation regime are no longer tax deductible
Fixed agricultural tax, special VAT regime for agro producers* No changes
Tax on interest earned on bank deposits 5% from 2015
Property tax Progressive rate ranging from 0% to 2.7% of the minimum wage per square meter applied
depending on taxable property area from 2012
Tax Code: Key Changes to Existing Taxation Regime
Note: *agro producers retain VAT in their bank account to use for CAPEX and production needs. Source: Verkhovna Rada
Tax Code: Neutral for Economy; Long-Term Positive for Stock Market 2
3. December 6, 2010
IMPACT ON ECONOMY: NEUTRAL
Ukraine’s current corporate and VAT rates (25% and 20% respectively) are moderate The Code cuts tax rates and
by regional standards. With the rate cuts envisaged by the Code, the country will streamlines tax legislation…
boast one of the lowest tax rates in Europe by 2014. This is obviously no turnaround
for the current cumbersome tax system but still will ease the overall tax burden,
benefiting large- and medium-sized companies in the first place. Moreover, the
enactment of the Code as a systematic collection of taxation rules as well as planned
abolition of a number of small taxes will also streamline the existing legislation.
40% 30%
30% 25%
20%
20% 15%
10% 10%
5%
0% 0%
Czech Rep.
Malta
Bulgaria
Romania
Ukraine
Austria
Ukraine
Hungary
Russia
Estonia
Italy
Greece
UK
Germany
France
Norway
Malta
Czech Rep.
Denmark
Switzerland
Portugal
Finland
Ukraine
Romania
Austria
Bulgaria
Estonia
Ukraine
Ireland
Cyprus
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Spain
UK
Russia
Germany
Greece
France
Italy
Hungary
Sweden
Belgium
Switzerland
Portugal
Norway
Denmark
Finland
Luxembourg
Ireland
Cyprus
Spain
Netherlands
Belgium
Sweden
Corporate Income Tax Rates in Europe (%) VAT Rates in Europe (%)
Sources: AGN International, Dragon Capital estimates
In contrast to CEE peers, the Ukrainian economy is dominated by large businesses …benefiting large companies,
which account for an estimated 70-80% of GDP. This implies the corporate tax which dominate the economy…
reduction should produce a positive effect on the economy in the longer term by
enabling companies to release additional funds for expansion and modernization.
80% 80% 0%
70% 70% (2%)
60% 60% (4%)
50% 50% (6%)
40% 40% (8%)
30% 30% 2009 2010E 2011F
20% 20% (10%)
10% 10% (12%)
0% 0% (14%)
Czech Rep.
Slovak Rep.
Ukraine**
UK
Greece
France
Italy
Germany
Russia
Portugal
Spain
Latvia
Lithuania
Croatia
Slovenia
Estonia
Romania
Poland
Turkey
Bulgaria
Hungary
Lithuania
Slovenia
Poland
Croatia
Estonia
Czech Rep
Slovak Rep
Romania
Latvia
Ukraine*
Bulgaria
Turkey
Hungary
Share of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in GDP (2008; %) Fiscal Deficit: Ukraine vs. European Countries (% of GDP)
Note: *unofficial estimate for Ukraine; **IMF-set ceilings for 2010 and 2011. Sources: Finance Ministry, Pension Fund, State Treasury, European Commission,
Eurostat, IMF, Dragon Capital estimates
Yet, the above gains may partly be offset by negative impact on private …but adversely affecting private
entrepreneurs. Despite preserving the STR, the Code includes a provision that makes entrepreneurs
the costs of goods and services purchased from STR businesses (except IT services)
non-deductible for companies subject to the general taxation regime. While this will
limit the scope for tax evasion, which the earlier arrangement allowed, it will also
hampers B2B activity between large companies and private entrepreneurs.
That said, we think the overall impact of the Tax Code on the economy will be The overall impact is neutral to
neutral to positive, with gains for large businesses to be counterbalanced by positive, no significant effect on
negatives for small businessmen. The impact on budget revenues is likely to be budget revenues
insignificant. We estimate revenue losses due to the lower corporate tax rate at about
0.3% of GDP in 2011, which is likely to be fully offset by higher excise rates and
royalties as well as measures aimed at limiting tax evasion.
Tax Code: Neutral for Economy; Long-Term Positive for Stock Market 3
4. December 6, 2010
Approval of the Code paves the way for the government to proceed with drafting the Approval of the Tax Code
2011 budget based on new taxation rules. Submitting a realistic budget with a deficit brightens the prospects to
trimmed to 3.5% of GDP — which is expected to be achieved primarily via spending receive the next IMF tranche…
cuts — is one of the IMF’s key requirements for disbursing its next $1.5bn loan
tranche by the end of December. The Fund also wants the authorities to reinstate
penalties for overdue utilities payments and initiate pension reforms including many
unpopular measures such as a gradual increase in the retirement age for women.
On a related note, the revised Tax Code was endorsed by a solid majority of 268 …with voting results boding
lawmakers, including 20 deputies from the opposition Our Ukraine and Yulia well for the endorsement of
Tymoshenko Bloc factions. It is important that the bill would have secured the IMF-required pension
required majority of at least 226 votes even without the 26-strong Communist faction. legislation
The ruling party’s effective independence from Communists, gained recently thanks
to defectors from the opposition, bodes well for the IMF-required approval of
unpopular pension legislation later this month as the old-guard leftists are almost
certain to reject it.
IMPACT ON STOCK MARKET: POSITIVE LONG-TERM GAINS
In terms of impact on individual companies, particularly large and medium-sized Long-term positive valuation
businesses, the planned rate cuts, lower tax expenses and resulting increase in for stocks estimated at 10% on
profitability should yield a long-term positive valuation effect of 10%, with exporters average
standing to gain a marginally lower 9% as they won’t be influenced materially by the
VAT reduction. We analyze the impact on selected listed companies in more detail in
the next chapter.
The Tax Code also introduces several changes regarding stock market operations, Dividend tax for individuals
particularly taxation of dividends. Starting next year, the dividend tax for private cut to 5%
individuals will be cut to 5% from 15%, with the rate paid by non-residents left
unchanged at 15% and domestic corporates to continue paying the standard income
tax rate. Moreover, in case dividends are paid to individuals and parent companies,
the company distributing them will be exempt from income tax on such payouts
(advance income tax is to be charged when dividends are paid and subtracted from
the income tax balance in future periods). Although the beneficiaries of most local
companies are offshore-registered corporate entities, the reduced dividend tax for
individuals may serve as a long-term incentive for shareholders to increase dividend
payouts, as only a handful of private companies in Ukraine presently pay dividends.
The government left income earned by non-residents on government securities tax- Income on government
exempt. This provision covers both pure sovereign and municipal bonds as well debt securities remains tax-
with government guarantees. The same applies to Ukrainian residents purchasing exempt…
government-issued/guaranteed securities on the primary or secondary markets.
The Code also requires including interest accrued on purchased securities in total Delays in interest payments…
taxable income for the period when such interest payment was or was expected to be
made according to conditions of the appropriate security issue. This may have
negative implications in case of non-timely payment of interest, leading to increased
taxable income and tax expenses for the investor.
Tax Code: Neutral for Economy; Long-Term Positive for Stock Market 4
5. December 6, 2010
According to the Tax Code, the so called “30-day rule”, when in the event of 30 …and the “30-day rule” may
calendar days prior to the sale of securities or derivatives, and for the next 30 calendar overstate taxable income
days after such sale, the taxpayer purchases a package of identical securities or
derivatives, then investment loss that may result from such sale shall be disregarded
in determining the overall financial result of operations with investment assets. The
value of purchased securities for tax purposes is determined by its purchase price, but
not lower than the price of the sold package. This may have negative implications in
case of inability to offset incurred losses with income on identical frequently traded
securities, implying additional taxable income and tax expenses. Exceptions include
block trades with over 25% stakes, share buyback, and purchase of securities during a
private placement. Both the abovementioned delays in interest payments and the “30-
day rule” may have negative implications for local market activity but we see
agreement between local stock exchanges and market players in order to revise these
regulations.
IMPACT ON SELECTED LISTED COMPANIES: NEUTRAL FOR UNAF, POSITIVE FOR MSICH, SZLV
Starting from Jan. 1, 2011, VAT will not be levied on agricultural producers selling New VAT rules for agro
grain, meaning they will neither pay the tax to state budget (as was the case before) producers, distribution
nor keep it in their bank accounts to reinvest in operations. However, they will still companies and traders…
pay VAT on purchased materials and services used in production (COGS). Thus, the
abolition of VAT on grain sales is unlikely to bring crop prices down. Grain traders
buying crops directly from producers and exporting them will therefore not deal with
VAT at all. Intermediaries, however, will have to pay VAT on grain purchased from
producers and sold to exporters.
Such mechanism should stimulate traders and exporters to buy grain directly from …to facilitate grain exports
producers rather than deal with VAT refund credits from the state. This should help
to make the market more transparent and facilitate grain export procedures, thereby
carrying positive implications for listed grain producers such as Astarta Holding
[Buy; FV $37.53], MHP [Hold; FV $23.60], Kernel Holding [Under Review], Ukrros
[Buy; FV $0.87], Mriya Agro Holding [Under Review], Agroton [Not Rated], Sintal
Agriculture [Not Rated], MCB Agricole [Not Rated], Landkom [Not Rated] and
Dakor Agro Holding [Not Rated].
The Tax Code increases the base royalty rate for oil from $26/bbl to $36/bbl for Oil royalties to increase 40%,
reservoirs above 5,000 m and from $9.7/bbl to $13.6/bbl for those below 5,000 m. A gas royalties 18.5%
correction coefficient, calculated by dividing the imported oil price by $71/bbl, will be
applied to the base rate. The base rate for natural gas was increased from $25/tcm to
$30/tcm for above-5,000 m deposits and from $12.6/tcm to $14.9/tcm for deeper than
5,000 m extraction. The correction coefficient will be calculated by dividing the
average price of imported gas by $179.5/tcm. For companies supplying gas to
households, the royalties will grow to $7.4/tcm (above 5,000 m) and $5.9/tcm (below
5,000 m). The higher royalties will obviously have a negative impact on oil and gas
producers by denting their net sales.
At the same time, the law closes the legal loophole that has so far enabled Ukrnafta Ukrnafta: no more loopholes
[Hold; FV $54.5] to sell oil at below market prices. The company presently sells oil to sell oil at 20% discount
with an approx. 20% discount to the price of imported crude, and eliminating it will
provide for an additional $216m of revenues annually (assuming a $75/bbl average
for 2011), thus more than offsetting the planned increase in royalties.
Tax Code: Neutral for Economy; Long-Term Positive for Stock Market 5
6. December 6, 2010
In addition, the Code provides for a hike in excise taxes on gasoline (+38% to EUR Higher gasoline tax will likely
182/t) and diesel fuel (+38-40% to EUR 42-90/t). It also introduces an LNG excise tax be passed on to final
of EUR 40/t. The proposed tax increases imply additional cash outflows on gasoline consumers
purchases as well as growth in working capital for companies such as Galnaftogaz
[Buy; FV $0.025]. However, we expect fuel traders and retailers to fully pass higher
costs on to end consumers, implying a UAH 0.5/liter increase in the gasoline retail
price, as domestic demand for fuel has been quite inelastic.
The legislation grants 10-year tax holidays for the light industry, hotels, aircraft Income tax holidays to benefit
makers and shipbuilders. This bodes well for Motor Sich [Buy; FV $449], the leading Motor Sich, Zaliv Shipyard
CIS producer of aircraft engines, and Zaliv Shipyard [Buy; FV $0.042], Ukraine’s and Clubhouse Group
leading producer of large-capacity ships. We estimate potential income tax savings
for those companies at $500m and $40m, respectively, over 2011-20. We plan to
update our model on those companies accordingly and put our recommendation on
Motor Sich under review for upgrade. This provision is also beneficial for hotel
operator Clubhouse Group [Not Rated].
In more good news for shipbuilders, the Tax Code reinstates an earlier regulation VAT privileges bode well for
(suspended in 2008) that allowed shipbuilders to pay VAT on imported goods with Zaliv Shipyard
720-day promissory notes. Since 2008 shipyards, whose production cycle is highly
capital-intensive, have been required to pay VAT on imports with cash only, which
depleted their cash flows and working capital, and the situation was exacerbated by
the government delaying VAT refunds.
The Code also confirms the earlier approved tax preferences for aircraft producers Additional tax preferences for
which exempted eligible companies, including Motor Sich, from the land tax as well Motor Sich confirmed
as VAT on imported goods purchased for production purposes. According to Motor
Sich CEO Vyacheslav Bohuslayev, those tax breaks imply a 7% cost saving for the
company, or $300m in total over 2010-16.
Tax Code: Neutral for Economy; Long-Term Positive for Stock Market 6
7. December 6, 2010
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011F
Real Sector
Real GDP (% y-o-y) 12.1% 2.7% 7.3% 7.9% 2.1% (15.1%) 5.0% 4.5%
Household Consumption (% y-o-y) 13.1% 20.6% 15.9% 17.1% 11.6% (14.1%) 2.5% 5.0%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (% y-o-y) 20.5% 3.9% 21.2% 20.0% 1.9% (48.1%) 8.0% 12.0%
Nominal GDP (UAH bn) 345 441 544 721 950 915 1,105 1,304
Nominal GDP ($bn) 65 86 108 143 180 117 139 170
GDP per Capita (at F/X rate; $) 1,372 1,836 2,310 3,077 3,897 2,552 3,043 3,721
Real Industrial Output (% y-o-y) 12.5% 3.1% 6.2% 10.2% (3.1%) (21.9%) 10.0% 6.5%
Real Agricultural Output (% y-o-y) 19.9% 0.0% 2.5% (6.5%) 17.1% 0.1% (1.5%) 0.5%
Prices
Consumer Price Index (e-o-p; % y-o-y) 12.3% 10.3% 11.6% 16.6% 22.3% 12.3% 9.5% 10.5%
Consumer Price Index (avg.; % y-o-y) 9.0% 13.5% 9.1% 12.8% 25.2% 15.9% 9.2% 8.9%
Producer Price Index (e-o-p; % y-o-y) 24.1% 9.6% 15.6% 23.3% 23.0% 14.3% 18.0% 9.0%
Producer Price Index (avg.; % y-o-y) 20.5% 16.7% 9.6% 19.5% 35.5% 6.5% 19.0% 13.6%
GDP Deflator (% y-o-y) 15.1% 24.5% 14.8% 22.7% 29.1% 13.0% 15.0% 13.0%
External Sector
Current Account Balance ($bn) 6.9 2.5 (1.6) (5.3) (12.8) (1.8) (2.8) (4.3)
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 10.6% 2.9% (1.4%) (3.7%) (7.1%) (1.5%) (2.0%) (2.5%)
Merchandise Trade Balance ($bn) 3.7 (1.1) (5.2) (10.6) (16.1) (4.7) (8.4) (10.6)
Goods Exports (FOB; $bn) 33.4 35.0 38.9 49.8 67.7 40.4 51.4 59.8
Exports Growth (y-o-y; %) 42.6% 4.8% 11.2% 28.0% 35.9% (40.3%) 27.2% 16.3%
Goods Imports (FOB; $bn) 29.7 36.2 44.1 60.4 83.8 45.0 59.8 70.4
Imports Growth (y-o-y; %) 23.7% 21.8% 22.1% 36.9% 38.7% (46.2%) 32.7% 17.7%
Services Trade Balance ($bn) 1.2 1.8 2.1 2.4 1.7 2.6 4.5 5.0
Net Income Balance ($bn) (0.6) (1.0) (1.7) (0.7) (1.5) (2.4) (2.0) (2.0)
Net Current Transfers ($bn) 2.6 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.1 2.7 3.0 3.3
Capital and Financial Accounts Balance ($bn) (4.2) 8.0 3.7 15.8 9.7 (11.9) 8.0 6.0
Net FDI Inflow ($bn) 1.7 7.5 5.7 9.2 9.9 4.5 5.5 8.0
Gross External Debt ($bn) 30.6 38.8 54.5 80.0 101.7 103.3 109.9 114.3
Gross External Debt (% of GDP) 47.1% 44.4% 50.6% 56.0% 56.5% 88.1% 78.8% 67.3%
Public Finances
Central Budget Revenues (% of GDP) 1), 3) 20.4% 23.8% 24.5% 23.0% 24.4% 22.9% 22.6% 23.0%
Central Budget Expenditures (% of GDP) 1), 3) 23.3% 25.6% 25.2% 24.4% 25.7% 26.8% 27.2% 27.4%
Central Budget Balance (% of GDP) 1), 3) (3.0%) (1.8%) (0.7%) (1.4%) (1.3%) (3.8%) (4.5%) (4.4%)
General Government Balance (% of GDP) 2), 3) (4.4%) (2.3%) (1.4%) (2.0%) (3.2%) (6.3%) (5.4%) (5.0%)
Naftogaz Balance (% of GDP) 2), 3) na na na na na (2.5%) (1.0%) 0.0%
Total Public Debt ($bn) 3) 16.1 15.5 15.9 17.6 24.6 39.8 54.7 68.6
Total Public Debt (% of GDP) 3) 24.7% 17.7% 14.8% 12.3% 19.9% 34.7% 38.9% 39.4%
External Public Debt ($bn) 3) 12.1 11.7 12.7 13.8 18.6 26.6 33.4 42.9
Debt to IMF ($bn) 3) 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.4 4.7 12.9 16.2 22.2
Monetary & Banking Indicators
Monetary Base (% y-o-y) 34.1% 53.9% 17.5% 46.0% 31.6% 4.4% 15.0% 20.0%
Money Supply (M2, % y-o-y) 32.8% 53.9% 34.3% 50.8% 31.0% (5.4%) 20.4% 20.6%
Credit Rates (avg.; UAH; % p.a.) 17.9% 16.4% 15.1% 13.9% 17.5% 20.9% 16.4% 15.3%
Deposit Rates (avg.; UAH; % p.a.) 7.8% 8.5% 7.9% 8.2% 10.0% 13.8% 11.8% 9.3%
Total Credits (e-o-p; UAH bn) 88.6 143.4 245.2 426.9 733.9 719.0 731.9 819.7
Credits Growth (%; y-o-y) 30.6% 61.9% 71.0% 74.1% 71.9% (2.0%) 1.8% 12.0%
Total Credits (% of GDP) 25.7% 32.5% 45.1% 59.2% 77.3% 78.6% 66.3% 62.8%
Total Deposits (e-o-p; UAH bn) 83.0 132.7 184.4 280.2 357.8 328.0 395.0 475.0
Deposits Growth (%; y-o-y) 35.2% 60.0% 38.9% 51.9% 27.7% (8.3%) 20.4% 20.3%
Total Deposits (% of GDP) 24.0% 30.1% 33.9% 38.9% 37.7% 35.9% 35.8% 36.4%
Forex
Gross F/X Reserves ($bn) 9.5 19.4 22.3 32.5 31.5 26.5 36.0 46.0
Gross F/X Reserves (months of current year imports) 3.1 5.3 5.0 5.4 3.8 5.7 6.0 6.4
UAH:USD (market rate; e-o-p) 5.32 5.05 5.05 5.05 7.85 8.00 7.85 7.50
UAH:USD (market rate; avg.) 5.32 5.12 5.05 5.05 5.31 8.14 7.92 7.68
Notes: 1)Excluding social security funds, Naftogaz Ukrainy and bank rehabilitation costs; 2)The general government balance includes the central and local budgets and the
Pension Fund, but excludes bank recapitalization costs; 3)SDRs are treated as deficit financing item and included in debt statistics. Sources: SSC, Finance Ministry, NBU, Dragon
Capital estimates and forecasts
Tax Code: Neutral for Economy; Long-Term Positive for Stock Market 7
8. December 6, 2010
RESEARCH
36D Saksahanskoho, Director, Research
01 033 Kyiv, Ukraine Andriy Bespyatov, PhD, CFA
Tel.: (+380 44) 490 7120 bespyatov@dragon-capital.com
Fax: (+380 44) 490 7121
Economics Electricity, Oil & Gas
www.dragon-capital.ua
Olena Bilan Dennis Sakva
bilan@dragon-capital.com sakva@dragon-capital.com
Managing Director
Tomáš Fiala Politics Fixed Income
fiala@dragon-capital.com Viktor Luhovyk Olga Slyvynska
luhovyk@dragon-capital.com slyvynska@dragon-capital.com
SALES AND TRADING Olena Bilan
Banking & Insurance bilan@dragon-capital.com
EQUITIES Anastasia Tuyukova Igor Buinyi
tuyukova@dragon-capital.com buinyi@dragon-capital.com
Managing Director,
Equities Sales and Trading Metals & Mining Editing
Dmytro Tarabakin Sergiy Gayda Viktor Luhovyk
tarabakin@dragon-capital.com gayda@dragon-capital.com luhovyk@dragon-capital.com
Oleksandr Makarov
Managing Director, makarov@dragon-capital.com Research Assistants
International Equity Sales Volodymyr Skepskiy
Peter Bobrinsky Chemicals, Food & Agriculture, skepskiy@dragon-capital.com
bobrinsky@dragon-capital.com FMCG Nadiya Syhydyuk
Tamara Levchenko syhydyuk@dragon-capital.com
Director, Equity Sales levchenko@dragon-capital.com Vikentiy Chebotarov
Andriy Dmytrenko, CFA chebotarov@dragon-capital.com
dmytrenko@dragon-capital.com Manufacturing, Real Estate,
Telecommunications
Director, Trading and Domestic Sales Taisiya Shepetko
Denis Matsuyev shepetko@dragon-capital.com
matsuyev@dragon-capital.com
International Sales
Fyodor Bagnenko
bagnenko@dragon-capital.com
FIXED INCOME
Managing Director, Fixed Income
Dray Simpson
simpson@dragon-capital.com
Director, Fixed Income Trading
Ivo Suchy
suchy@dragon-capital.com
Fixed Income Trading
Oleksandr Ublinskykh
ublinskykh@dragon-capital.com
Fixed Income Sales
Kostyantyn Kucherenko
kucherenko@dragon-capital.com
Armen Bagirian
bagirian@dragon-capital.com
Svitlana Rusakova
rusakova@dragon-capital.com
DISCLAIMER
This report has been prepared by Dragon Capital for information purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation to deal in any security. The opinions, forecasts and
estimates in this report reflect our good-faith judgment as of the date of publication, and may change without notice. Although the information in this report comes
from sources we believe to be reliable, and although we have made every effort to ensure its accuracy at the time of publication, we make no warranty, express or
implied, of this report's usefulness in predicting the future performance, or in estimating the current or future value, of any security. Nor should this report be
regarded as a complete description of the securities or markets referred to herein. Any opinions expressed herein may differ from opinions on the same subject
expressed by other business departments of Dragon Capital as a result of employing different assumptions or methodology. Any investment decision made on the
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Tax Code: Neutral for Economy; Long-Term Positive for Stock Market 8