The survey of 500 likely Arkansas voters found: - Congressman John Boozman leads incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln 59% to 35% in the ballot test and would receive 90% of the Republican vote and one third of the Democrat vote. - A majority of 56% have an unfavorable impression of Lincoln and 61% disapprove of the job she is doing as Senator. - Nearly two thirds of voters, 64%, believe it is time for a new senator instead of re-electing Lincoln, who only 29% think deserves re-election. - The political environment in Arkansas favors Republicans as 59% disapprove of President Obama's job performance and Republicans hold a 14-point lead in the

1. 201 N Union Street, Suite 410
Alexandria, Virginia 22314
(703) 684-6688
THE TARRANCE GROUP
(703) 836-8256 FAX www.tarrance.com
MEMORANDUM
TO: BOOZMAN FOR SENATE
NATIONAL REPUBLICAN SENATORIAL COMMITTEE
FROM: ED GOEAS
NICHOLAS THOMPSON
RE: KEY FINDINGS FROM A SURVEY OF VOTER ATTITUDES IN ARKANSAS
DATE: JUNE 18, 2010
________________________________________________________________________
The Tarrance Group is pleased to present the Boozman for Senate Committee and
National Republican Senatorial Committee with the key findings from a survey of voter
attitudes in Arkansas. These key findings are based on telephone interviews with N=500
“likely” registered voters throughout the state. Responses to this survey were gathered
June 15-16, 2010 and the confidence interval associated with a sample of this type is +
4.5%.
KEY FINDINGS
Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln is vulnerable and very much in danger of
facing defeat in November by Congressman John Boozman. Congressman
Boozman leads Lincoln on the ballot test by +24-points, 59% to 35%, with nearly
half of voters, 47%, “definitely” voting for Boozman. Only 6% are undecided.
Boozman receives 90% of the Republican vote and one third of the Democrat
vote (32%), including a plurality of white conservative Democrats (49%).
Among the voters who have heard of both Lincoln and Boozman (84% of the
sample), Boozman leads by +31-points, 63% to 32%.
Lincoln’s incumbency ratings also provide significant problems for her re-
election chances. A strong majority of voters, 56%, have an unfavorable
impression of her, and she faces virtually a two-to-one intensity problem, with
42% strongly unfavorable and only 22% strongly favorable. Similarly, 61%
disapprove of the job she is doing as Senator, with 44% strongly disapproving and
only 16% strongly approving.
The soft re-election number is perhaps the strongest indicator of an incumbent’s
strength, and nearly two thirds (64%) of Arkansas voters have already made up

2. their mind that it is time for a new person in office. Only 29% say Lincoln
deserves re-election.
The political environment in Arkansas is also strongly in favor of Republicans. A
strong majority (59%) disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President,
and Republicans hold a +14-point advantage on the generic Senate ballot, 53% to
39%. Also, while 74% of Boozman voters are “extremely” likely to vote in
November, only 54% of Lincoln voters say the same thing.