Breaking down ideas from Taleb's 4 books (Fooled By Randomness, Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the game) in a way a 11 year old can understand

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TALEB
F O R
K I D S
EmDeBee
Tigor

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To Avnish & HRISHIKESH
My explanation of Taleb for you so that you can navigate reality a
little better

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Most of what is popular, what your friends, school and family will
tell you is at odds with how mother nature works. And that is what
Nicholas Nassim Taleb found out in his career as trader and wrote
about it. Mother nature and him do not care what others think.
They say that a kids get the toys that their parents wanted. I
discovered Taleb quite late and wished I had done before. After
reading these ideas the color of world I saw changed. Taleb did
something odd, he wrote his ideas in 4 dense books (Fooled By
Randomness, Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the game) in the most
difficult way to understand to filter out those who are not ready for
it.
It is quite possible Taleb would hate me for simplifying his ideas
through metaphors. People who think in first principles they hate
metaphors. Metaphors are rickety chair in people brain on which
complex ideas can seat. I am taking this risk and creating them if
even they are wrong to get you started on this early.
Some ideas may give you head start, many things you will learn on
your own. If this just entertains you than all my effort was worth it.
Mother Nature
is Brutal.
Why is that?

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RandomNES
S

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Once upon a
time...
Humans are
story telling
monkeys
I like stories!

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Don’t drive life forward
looking into rear view
mirror of experiences
Oh! Do we have
license to drive
blind

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2010 1980 1960
Life
life experience
All humans are
blind to future
I never imagined
that I would see
a pandemic

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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14...
It is great I
am being
fed well
Turkey is dinner
ThanksGiving
Turkey becomes
dinner on day 11.
Being blind to
future can kill you
I like Turkey.
How can I save it?

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Don’t pick pennies
in front a steam
roller
Low hanging fruit.
Looked like easy
winning

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Sleep Less
Work More
Go All in. I never
gave up
Don’t listen to
speeches from
lottery winners
I thought rockstars
are cool and
accountants are boring
I followed Boring
simple steps
Ask where
are the dead

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Chances of
winning looked
good
Never play
russian roulette
Take affordable
bets

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Only in bad luck.
How else can I explain
the losses I have made
in Stock Market?
Do you
believe in
luck?
Stay away from
people that only
know good luck
If good happens sister
says she did it.
When bad happens
she blames it on fate

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Memory of the
experience now
THEN NOW
Past Experience
IT IS BECAUSE
Narrative bias -
How we remember is
different from how
it actually happens
Hmm!
Our mind hides
what we dont like

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You did not find
it does not
mean it does
not exist
Be Careful asking
for Proof
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If you could not
find it does not
mean it does not
exist
Then why do
adults ask for
proof?

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Models

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Map is not reality Google maps said
the restaurant is
right here but this is
a deserted place
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Map is not reality
I should stop
saying that google
maps does not lie

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Averages are
liars
4ft deep
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6 ft man can
drown in 4 ft river
Never trust
averages. They lie.
Numbers gave so
much confidence.
I should be careful !

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School ruler
can’t measure
building
Wittgenstein’s
Ruler
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School ruler can’t
measure the size of
building
Got it. Marks in
test does not measure
a kid’s creativity

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You did not find
it does not
mean it does
not exist
Be Careful asking
for Proof
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If you could not
find it does not
mean it does not
exist
Then why do
adults ask for
proof?

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Faith is an untestable belief
Some things
Science can’t
answer
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Some questions
science can’t
answer
Does Santa exist?

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All swans are white
Until a black swan is seen
Hypothesis
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Science works by
proving itself wrong.
It is right only till
proven wrong
OMG! Why are
people so confident
about science.
True scientist
should not be

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All models are
wrong
Mediocristan
Extremistan
Probability
Statistics
HUMBLED FUTURE BLIND
Past OIL prices
data says it varies
within range
CONFIDENT FUTURE BLIND
Complex system
anything can
happen. OIL can go
to zero
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Humility > Confidence
All models are
wrong.
It does not make
sense how can oil
price go below zero

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Arjuna
Indian King
Navagunjara
(Black swan in Indian mythology
called Mahabharat)
I have never seen
you before.
You must be divine !
I bow before you
What you don’t
know treat it with
respect
I don’t know so
many things

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Lindy -
Read history
so you can
know future
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Don’t underestimate
the old and
overestimate the young
I thought being
young is cool and
old is boring

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Wisdom is more
useful than science
Wait. Is my
science teacher
wrong ?

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100s of years
Question
New
Observations
New Daydreams
Test to prove wrong
Approve
Observe
Do
Survive time
Propels
How Science works How Wisdom works
FDA
There is place
for both
Wisdom and
Science to be
used
Science right
till wrong.
Wisdom is
wrong till right.

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Bad Science Bad Wisdom
Frankenstein
Choose based on
what causes less
harm
It is tricky
balance to use
both

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SURVIVE
&
THRIVE

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This is Fragile This is Robust This is AntiFragile
Survives Thrives
To win against
randomness study
what survives and
thrives randomness
Gingerbread
Vs
Hulk

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Lindy -
Read history
so you can
know future
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Don’t underestimate
the old and
overestimate the young
I thought being
young is cool and
old is boring

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Doctors pledge to
first do no harm
Science teacher
or Grandma
should both
pledge that

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Unit System
Humanity will be
antifragile only
humans are fragile
This is so non
obvious

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Stress
creates
strength
Fasting improves
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To make individual
humans stronger
give some stress.
Fast on Food
Grandma has
always asked me to
eat more. This does
not makes sense

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Adding
By Subtracting
Remove things from
life to improve it.
Adding causes
problem
Wow, saying no
seems powerful

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1 Ton
5 Tons
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Always keep margin
of safety. Nature
designs it that way
Ah ! Better to be
safe than to be
sorry

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Learning comes
from doing not
reading
Schools make
us believe
otherwise

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Pure Skill
Pure Luck
Entrepreneur
Investor
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Most of things we
do in life lies in luck
skill spectrum.
Know your game
What should
I do if it is
completely
luck ?

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Blind
luck
Motion
luck
Spotting
luck
Crazy
luck
Alexander
Fleming
Next
Sachin
Tendulkar
Improve Good Luck
Deep Sea
Diver
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Keep moving from
dumb luck to
motion luck to
judgement luck to
crazy luck
Hmm! Do something
valuable, unique,
almost crazy
Lottery
Winner

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Finally to be
individually antifragile.
Look for others skin
in your game
Wow did not
understand that
skin in game is to
make me antifragile

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First Ironing Then Washing
NOT SAME AS
First Washing Then Ironing
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In life the path and
sequence matters.
Keep in mind
Ok ! I can’t
compare with
friend because his
path was different

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Celebrate when you meet Bad Luck
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If bad luck visits you.
Between bad luck and
your response lies the
power of your choice.
Respond not react
Ooooh! Thats
interesting

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SITG
COMPASS for LIFE

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Finally to be
individually antifragile.
Look for others skin
in your game
Wow did not
understand that
skin in game is to
make me antifragile

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incentive downside
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Skin in the game is
misunderstood as
upside. No it is the
downside
You mean what
does the other
person loose if
things don’t go
well ?

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Gain Pain Gain Pain
Yes look for symmetry.
If you have downside.
Let the other person
on other end also have
the same
Share gain also
share pain

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Giving a haircut
makes money. Why
would I say no ?
Never ask a barber if
you need a hair cut.
He has no downside
you do.
Ooooh! Thats
interesting

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Buy these
stocks
Stocks Portfolio
See. This is
my portfolio
Don’t tell me what
you think, show
what is in your
portfolio
Show not
tell

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Words are easy, actions are hard
I love & care
about animals
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Yummy
Meat
Believe in what
people do not what
they say
Actions
speak louder
than words

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I can’t define,
I see fire, I jump
to save people
Define
Fire?
Yogi Berra
Skin in Game Person
Real life
is not
same as
academia
Why do they
keep tests on
definition ?

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Skills for School Skills for Success
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Read Do
Book knowledge
help to win
with grades, not
real life
Doing is better
than reading

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Don’t tell me
what to do
I should not
tell her what to
do
Treat your younger
sister the way you
like your elder
brother to treat you
I don’t like
being told
Silver Rule

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Shabby looking
better than
Good looking
Doctor
Looks can
deceive

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Entrepreneur
Employee
>100% Skin in Game
Dogs
& Employees
Petted Young
Discarded Old
Old have to take
care of themselves

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In order to
succeed, you
must first
survive
First things fist

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Class I
Risk of Ruin
Class II
Other risks
Real Risk is
risk of ruin
If you die you
dont get to play

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Success isn’t being on
top of a hierarchy, it is
standing outside all
hierarchies
Trophies are
useless. You
define your
own success

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Thanks

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Curious collector of BETTER
EXPLANATIONS
TIGOR
EmDEBEE
I AM 11 year old, Current
interest in history & ART,
confused about psycHology
which I AM LEARNING IS a
pseudo science.