Presented by Jim Hansen, CCAFS Theme Leader, at CG Contact Point Meeting in Bonn, 9 June 2011.

1. Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk Theme 2 Strategy 2011-2015 Jim Hansen

2. The Problem Climate-related risk impedes development Downside risk Opportunity cost Affects farmers, markets, “relief trap” Source of chronic poverty, vulnerability Increasing climate variability anticipated FORFEITED OPPORTUNITY HARDSHIP CRISIS

3. The Opportunity Under-exploited opportunities to better manage climate risk Immediate win-win actions to build climate resilience CG-relevant synergies Key hypotheses: Make agriculture more resilient to future climate change. Reduce impediments to structural adaptations to future climatic shifts.

6. Tools & Methods

7. Evidence

8. Capacity

11. Target: rural communities & markets; supporting institutions & policiesEnhanced support for managing risk Resilient rural livelihoods GENDER & EQITY LENS

12. Climate-Resilient Rural Livelihoods Under-exploited, scalable risk management innovations Technology evaluation & targeting, not development PAR at benchmark locations Knowledge synthesis Designed Diversification Index-Based Risk Transfer Anticipatory Management Technology Evaluation Scalable Indigenous CRM

13. Illustrative Research Index-based insurance Targeting, design Developing better indexes Advance information for adaptive management Designed diversification Scalable, transferrable indigenous risk management Household-level risk/resilience design & ex-ante evaluation

14. Food System Risk Management Understand climate impacts on food security Climate-sensitive decisions Information an entry point for improving processes Knowledge sharing, coordination New food system partnerships Manage price volatility Food crisis response Food security safety nets Post-crisis recovery Improved early warning (O3) Platform for coordination Marcus Prior, WFP

15. Illustrative Research Food system – farm household cross-scale interactions Impact of climate fluctuations on food security components Drivers, impacts, management of price volatility Costs vs. timing of alternative food security interventions Institutional arrangements for regional food security planning, coordination

16. Climate Information Products, Services Climate information products: Address critical gaps Prediction of agricultural production, biological threats Climate services Institutional arrangements Capacity of providers Capacity to respond (O1, O2) Historic data reconstruction Downscaled, tailored seasonal forecast information Monitor & forecast crops, rangelands, pests & diseases Institutional arrangements Communication processes Curricula, training

17. Illustrative Research Overcoming data scarcity as a constraint to CRM Predicting climate impacts on crops, forage, biological threats Tailoring climate information to decision-making Scalable, sustainable, equitable delivery mechanisms Agriculture & food security regional climate service roadmaps

18. Key Results in 2010 Regional reviews of climate services for agriculture Regional evaluation of rural information delivery systems for climate-related services Climate and food security management scoping and strategy development Historic daily rainfall data reconstruction Remote sensing data assimilation for crop forecasting Modeling climate impacts on biological threats

19. Major Activities in 2011 CRM participatory demonstrations (equity/gender lens) Knowledge synthesis: insurance; diversification Household modeling of risk & resilience Food system stakeholder consultations & strategy Food security analyses: climate impacts on food security components; costs of alternative interventions Climate service synthesis, gaps, opportunities Address gaps: historic data, tailored climate forecasts Crop forecasting methodology and capacity

20. Major Challenges Balancing local impact with transferrable IPGs Effective, sustained engagement and resourcing of non-traditional CG partners